CN114707879A - Flood season staged dynamic flood limit water level determination method based on pre-discharge rule - Google Patents
Flood season staged dynamic flood limit water level determination method based on pre-discharge rule Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a flood season stage dynamic flood limit water level determination method based on a pre-discharge rule. The flood season stage staged dynamic flood limit water level determination method based on the pre-discharge rule comprises the following steps: step S1: finely dividing flood season analysis into stages according to the atmospheric circulation background of a basin where a reservoir is located and the seasonal rule analysis of rainstorm flood, calculating the degree of each period of the flood season belonging to a main flood season by selecting a representative index describing the characteristics of the flood season, finally dividing the flood season of the reservoir into a plurality of intervals, and obtaining flood process lines with different frequencies in the corresponding intervals; step S2: analyzing flood limiting water levels of different periods and different frequencies, and using the flood limiting water levels Z of different periods and different frequenciesFlood seasonAnd trial calculation is carried out as the starting water level adjustment. The invention is advantageousThe flood control safety of the reservoir is guaranteed, and the efficiency of flood resource utilization can be maximized by combining with the achievement of flood period stages.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a flood season stage dynamic flood limit water level determination method based on a pre-discharge rule.
Background
China is the country with the most population and the country with the most water consumption in the world, but the total amount of water resources only accounts for the sixth position of the world, and the difference between the seasonal climate in south and north and the topographic features exists, so the current situation of water resource shortage is aggravated by the difference between the climate and the topographic features. With the rapid development of the economic society, the drought and water shortage problem becomes more serious, and the contradiction between water resource supply and demand is increased more and more. By utilizing flood resources, the shortage of water resources can be effectively relieved, and the sustainable utilization of the water resources can be effectively realized.
By fully exploiting the potential of water resources of hydraulic engineering and drainage basins, partial flood resources can be converted into usable water resources, and the contradiction between supply and demand of the water resources is further relieved. The reasonable allocation of flood resources is an effective way for utilizing the flood resources, and the effective supply of the water resources can be further increased while the flood control safety is ensured. The key of flood resource utilization is to deal with the contradiction between flood control and benefit, and the flood season stage and flood limit water level dynamic control technology is an important technical means for flood resource utilization.
At present, the flood fighting of hydraulic engineering generally adopts a static flood limiting water level to control the water level of a flood season, namely, a certain specific flood limiting water level is adopted to meet the flood in the main flood season and the later flood season respectively in the whole flood season. At present, a conventional flood season scheduling mode is to ensure flood prevention safety in a flood season to the maximum extent, and a relatively low value is set for a flood limiting water level of a reservoir, so that the reservoir can effectively deal with flood water in the flood season and ensure the safety in the flood season, but a large amount of water abandonment is often caused in the flood season of the reservoir, and the reservoir falls into an embarrassing situation that no water can be stored to a normal water level in the flood season. Therefore, the method utilizes the stage flood limiting water level of the reservoir to regulate and control flood water resources, stores more water at any time on the premise of guaranteeing flood control safety, and is an important way for optimizing the reservoir operation management mechanism and relieving the contradiction of water resource shortage at present.
Meanwhile, due to the fact that rainstorm flood of the drainage basin has obvious seasonal rules, the whole law of the drainage basin is analyzed, and a staging scheme is formulated, so that a foundation can be laid for adjusting the stage flood limiting water level. The dynamic control of the flood limit water level allows the reservoir to change and float in the interval of stages by mastering the seasonal change rule and the hydrological meteorological characteristics of the basin, and dynamically adjusts the flood limit water level, thereby further achieving the purpose of efficiently utilizing water resources.
Disclosure of Invention
Based on the technical problem, the invention provides a flood season stage dynamic flood limit water level determination method based on a pre-discharge rule.
The invention provides a flood season stage dynamic flood limit water level determination method based on a pre-discharge rule, which comprises the following steps of:
step S1: finely dividing flood season analysis into stages according to the atmospheric circulation background of a basin where a reservoir is located and the seasonal rule analysis of rainstorm flood, calculating the degree of each period of the flood season belonging to a main flood season by selecting a representative index describing the characteristics of the flood season, finally dividing the flood season of the reservoir into a plurality of intervals, and obtaining flood process lines with different frequencies in the corresponding intervals;
step S2: analyzing flood limiting water levels of different periods and different frequencies, and using the flood limiting water levels Z of different periods and different frequenciesFlood seasonTrial calculation is carried out as the starting water level adjustment;
step S3: determining an effective pre-venting time point (t)Preparation of) Preload (q)Preparation of) And peak nodes (Q)j)；
Step S4: trial calculation flood limit water level ZFlood 1；
Step S5: calculating and analyzing different flood limit water levels of different intervals through the flood limit water levels with different frequencies of each interval of the reservoir, and analyzing the appropriate flood limit water level Z of the corresponding intervalFlood 1Drawing up the flood limit water level as the corresponding section drawn up flood limit water level value ZFlood s。
Step S6: with newly planned flood limit water level ZFlood sAs the initial water level regulation, the water balance calculation is carried out again according to the flood process line, and the water balance is determined at tPreparation ofWithin time will ZFlood sRestoring to the original flood limit water level, and simultaneously calculating ZFlood sWhether the corresponding leakage exceeds qPreparation of；
Step S7: and obtaining corresponding flood limit water level values of different stage intervals through the steps S4, S5 and S6, determining a final flood limit water level, and dynamically adjusting the corresponding frequency flood limit water level control domain obtained according to the step S5 when the reservoir is actually scheduled and operated.
Further, the effective pre-venting time point (t) in the step S3Preparation of) Is determined by the effective forecast period (T) of the flood forecastSee) Error time of rainfall forecast (T)Descend) -the time of transmission (T) of the forecast informationTransmission device) Scheduling operation time, decision time and switching-off time (T)Sink (C)) + effective forecast period time of rainfall (T)j). Further, the pre-bleeding amount (q) in the step S3Preparation of) The safe discharge of the cross section is controlled for the river channel of the drainage basin. The peak flood node (Q) in the step S3j) And the peak flood flow corresponding to the pre-discharge time point.
Further, the trial calculation flood limit water level ZFlood 1According to the flood process lines with different frequencies in different stage intervals determined in the step S1, performing trial calculation analysis by adopting the flood process lines with corresponding frequencies, the water level and the discharge curve of the reservoir and the water level and storage capacity curves;
drawing up and calculating the flood limit water level ZFlood 1When peak flow rate Q of warehouse entry1Less than QjThe incoming flow is equal to the discharge q1Keeping the current flood limit water level unchanged to determine t1Time storage capacity V1And obtain the flood limit water level ZFlood 1When peak flow rate Q of warehouse entry2Greater than QjCalculating the time period according to the flood process line, for t2The time is calculated according to t1Flow Q into the warehouse1And t2Flow Q into the warehouse2Will t2Instantaneous let-down flow q2Is controlled to be qPreparation ofThe water is drained, and according to a water quantity balance formula,
find t2The variation Δ V of the water storage of the reservoir at the end of time, V2＝V1+Δ V, to obtain a corresponding water level Z2Continuously calculating the time till the 2+ n period when the water level Z isFlood 2+ nAt tPreparation ofWhen the water level is restored to the original flood season limited water level within the time, ZFlood 1Meets the requirement when the water level Z isFlood 2+ nAt tPreparation ofWhen the time is recovered to the original flood season limited water level outside the time, the flood limit water level Z is recalculatedFlood 1Until the requirements are met.
The invention provides a dynamic flood limiting water level method taking safe pre-discharge amount and effective pre-discharge time as sensitive factor control values, aiming at not increasing the safety of a reservoir per se and upstream and downstream and on the premise of being convenient for operation by a reservoir manager. The method does not change the design concept of the original design in principle, the scheduling concept is based on the flood which is always met, the early-stage scheduling of the low-medium frequency flood is emphasized, and the original scheduling rule is still used when the large flood occurs.
The invention aims to analyze the effective forecast period, the pre-discharge amount and the corresponding flood peak node of the reservoir by utilizing the relevant information of rainfall forecast and flood forecast. And simultaneously, trial calculation is carried out by adopting a flood regulation calculation method according to the flood season stage achievement obtained according to the annual change rule of the basin where the reservoir is located, and the trial-calculated flood limit water level can be restored to the original flood limit water level within the effective forecast period to be a reasonable flood limit water level value.
Aiming at the allowable pre-storage capacity parameter in the improved pre-discharge capacity constraint calculation method, the parameter needs to adopt a 'warehousing flow value during the discharge of a flood discharge water delivery tunnel', but not all water delivery tunnels with flood discharge functions of reservoirs are provided, and meanwhile, the method for determining the initial discharge capacity is to analyze according to the data of the year of water abandonment and fail to analyze all historical data; meanwhile, the method is not combined with the result of flood season staging. The invention utilizes the correlation method for analyzing the effective forecast period in the improved pre-discharge capacity constraint method, does not calculate the pre-discharge water quantity parameter, calculates and analyzes the design flood in different period intervals and the newly formulated flood regulation rule, and further calculates the pre-discharge water quantity in another mode.
In the invention, aiming at the situation that a flood change rule method in consideration of the year is used for determining the flood limit water level, the flood regulation rule and the dispatching mode still adopt related schemes in the original design, and the dispatching rule is not effectively combined with weather forecast and flood forecast. The idea of the invention is to calculate the safe pre-discharge amount and the effective pre-discharge time by taking the weather forecast and the flood forecast as key reference values, adjust the dispatching rule by the way of pre-discharging the flood under the safe pre-discharge amount by the reservoir, and further try to calculate the flood limit water levels in different intervals.
The reasonable effective forecast period is the time obtained by carrying out forecast based on rainfall forecast, flood forecast and scheduling experience and possible conditions, and the method not only analyzes the current situation of the reservoir, but also forecasts various working conditions which may occur in the future, and is a method for finding a relative balance point in risk and benefit.
According to the invention, the flood season stage achievement obtained by fully utilizing the characteristics of the variation rule of the watershed where the reservoir is located can be divided into the intervals of the previous flood season, the previous flood transition season, the main flood season, the later flood transition season, the later flood season and the like, and based on the achievement, reservoir scheduling personnel can perform targeted scheduling in different intervals. The method does not change the design concept of the original design in principle, the change of the scheduling rule is mainly based on the frequent flood, the method focuses on the early-stage scheduling of the low-medium frequency flood, and the originally designed scheduling rule is still used when the large flood occurs.
The invention is not only beneficial to ensuring the flood control safety of the reservoir, but also can maximize the efficiency of flood resource utilization by combining the achievement of flood period stages.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a conventional dynamic flood limit water level control domain determined by an annual flood change law;
fig. 2 is a flow chart of the flood season stage dynamic flood limit water level determination method based on the pre-discharge rule.
Detailed Description
To facilitate an understanding of the invention, the invention will now be described more fully with reference to the accompanying drawings. Preferred embodiments of the present invention are shown in the drawings. This invention may, however, be embodied in many different forms and should not be construed as limited to the embodiments set forth herein. Rather, these embodiments are provided so that this disclosure will be thorough and complete.
In the prior art, there are two general ways of determining the flood limit water level, one of which is to determine the flood limit water level by a pre-storage pre-discharge method (an improved pre-discharge capacity constraint method), and the other is to determine a dynamic flood limit water level control domain by a flood change rule.
The basic idea of determining the flood limit water level by the pre-storage pre-discharge method (improved pre-discharge capacity constraint method) is how much discharge capacity exists in a flood forecast period, and then how much the flood limit water level floats upwards. The guiding idea is that the pre-discharge capacity is calculated in the effective forecast period to serve as the upper limit of the flood limit water level dynamic control. The floating value of the flood limit water level of the reservoir is subjected to the forecast period of the warehousing flood, the forecast warehousing quantity in the forecast period and the error distribution thereof; pre-venting capability during a forecast period; the flow rate of the downstream river channel allowed to be pre-discharged; the speed and stability of decision and feedback information transmission, the operation time of the gate and other factors. According to the effective pre-discharge time, the pre-discharge water amount of flood at a certain time can be calculated through the effective pre-discharge time, the increased water storage amount above the flood limit level of the reservoir can be determined through the pre-discharge water amount, and the elevated flood limit level value of the reservoir can be determined through the increased water storage amount.
The technical principle of the pre-storage and pre-discharge method is as follows: the principle can be formulated as:
wyx＝(qout-Qin)Ty,qout≤qan
wyx: for limiting water level at flood
The above dynamic pre-impoundment amount;
Ty: the information transfer is subtracted from the forecast period of rainfall forecast and flood forecast. Decision making and effective forecast period of gate operation time;
qout: taking the maximum value of the average discharge capacity or discharge quantity in the Ty period, and taking the general condition qout＝qan；
qan: safe discharge of the river;
Z+ dcalculating a new flood limit water level for dynamically controlling the upper limit value of the flood limit water level;
ZXLthe water level is favorable for the reservoir.
The key steps are as follows: the method comprises the following steps of determining the dynamic control domain of the flood limit water level of the reservoir by adopting a pre-discharge capacity constraint method under the influence of the following factors: i.e. effective pre-drain time (T)y) The water quantity (omega) entering the reservoir in the pre-discharge period and the safe discharge quantity (q) safely allowed by the flood control of the reservoiran)。
(1) Effective pre-drain time calculation
Ty＝Tb-Tz
Tb＝Th+Td
In the formula: t isyEffective pre-drainage time for taking flood and rainfall forecast information into consideration;
Thlimit times for flood forecasting are considered;
Tdto account for the extreme time of short-term rainfall forecasts;
Tzthe sum of the information transmission time, the forecast operation time, the decision time and the switching-off time.
The limit time of flood forecasting is as follows: aiming at the primary flood, from rainfall to the reservoir area above the reservoir dam site, the flood starts to rise, and the rising water reaches the time of the downstream allowable safe discharge;
Td: the limit time of the short-term rainfall forecast is synthesized with the analysis and calculation results of foremen, and the forecast period T of the short-term rainfall forecast is analyzed according to the available level of the current weather short-term rainfall forecastdThe rainfall monitoring device is reliable between 24 and 48 hours, and the time that the rainfall is possibly advanced can be considered properly from the safety consideration.
Tz: other conditions which may influence the time are that the sum of the information transmission time, the forecast operation time, the decision time and the switching-off time is TzThe maximum value of the historical events should be taken from the safety meter, or a prediction should be made as to what may happen at that time.
The pre-stored water amount is allowed to be calculated in the effective pre-drainage time: firstly, the average warehousing flow Q is calculated according to a comprehensive water-withdrawal curve in effective pre-drainage timeinThe key point is how to take the value of the initial return flow, generally, according to the scheduling experience in the historical water return period, when the spillway is completely closed and the water level is kept level when the flood discharge water transportation hole discharges, the current warehousing flow is taken as the initial return flow, namely the flood discharge water transportation hole discharge flow value.
qoutThe lowest level flood control target is taken at the downstream for the evidence of the discharge capacity or discharge quantity in the T periodAllowed safety relief qanAs the average delivery flow qoutAnd finally calculating the pre-storage water quantity omega by the formula:
w＝(qout-Qin)Ty
(2) dynamic control domain upper limit value of flood limit water level
Is determined
According to the pre-storage water quantity omega obtained in the above, the corresponding reservoir capacity V (Z) of the starting adjustment water level value (flood limit water level) adopted at this time is combinedd) In the formula [ V (Z)d)+w]The relation between water level and storage capacity is obtained by value search
The formula is as follows:
the disadvantages of the pre-charge pre-bleed method (improved pre-bleed capability constraint) are as follows: effective pre-drain time (T)y) The water quantity (omega) entering the reservoir in the pre-discharge period and the safe discharge quantity (q) safely allowed by the flood control of the reservoiran)。
Effective pre-drain time (T)y) And safe discharge (q) allowed by reservoir flood control safetyan) Has stronger universality. The effective pre-drainage time is influenced by a plurality of influence factors, such as rainfall, flood forecast and other information factors, and can be obtained by calculation or analysis through related experience. In the actual scheduling analysis, an algorithm may be used for the determination of the time. The influence factor comprehensively considers the possible occurrence or encounter conditions, and simultaneously makes good use of available rainfall forecast and flood forecast, and has a wide application range.
Safe discharge (q) allowed by reservoir flood control safetyan) Generally adopting the safe discharge q allowed by the lowest-level flood control target at the downstreamanAiming at the reservoir with flood control function, the parameters can be obtained in the original planning and design scheduling rule。
In the pre-discharge capacity constraint method, the calculation method of the allowed pre-stored water amount in the effective pre-discharge time lacks certain universality. The reason is as follows: 1. according to the above formula, w ═ qout-Qin)TyAllowing the pre-reserve to be varied from the mean delivery rate qout(i.e. allowed safety release q)an) Minus the average warehousing traffic QinMultiplied by the effective pre-drain time. And the formula w is (q)out-Qin)TyAverage warehousing flow Q of parametersinLack certain commonality, calculate and define according to the formula, average warehouse entry flow QinFor the comprehensive water-withdrawal curve, generally, according to the historical scheduling experience during the water-withdrawal period, when the spillway is completely closed and the water level is kept level when the flood-discharge water-delivery hole discharges, the current warehousing flow is taken as the initial water-withdrawal flow, that is, the value of the flood-discharge water-delivery hole discharge flow. The parameter 'flood discharge and water delivery hole discharge flow rate value' has certain limitation, and not all reservoirs have flood discharge holes with water discharge functions, so that the method needs to find the replaceable flow rate as the initial flow rate and the initial flow rate, and the value is difficult to take to a certain extent.
The method for determining the initial flow and the return flow of the reservoir with the flood discharge and water delivery hole is to analyze the data of the year of water abandonment, wherein the data analysis only analyzes the year of water abandonment, and the occurrence of water abandonment represents that the year is subject to larger flood but cannot represent all historical data sequences; even if water is abandoned, the data recording result of the spillway full shut is not represented. Meanwhile, the method is not beneficial to being combined with the achievement of flood limitation staging to a certain extent. Therefore, there are certain defects and difficulties in acquisition of the hydrologic data sequence and integrity of the data.
Referring to fig. 1, the concept of determining a dynamic flood limit water level control domain according to the annual flood change law is to analyze the probability that flood may occur in the future, so as to answer the problem that "flood will not occur any more than this time in the future".
The basic principle is as follows: in the design and regulation scheme of the reservoir, the safety of reservoir flood control is taken as a premise, so the working condition of the maximum design flood all the year is mainly considered, and the regularity of the statistical characteristics of flood intervals between flood years and in-year field flood intervals is generally not analyzed. However, in practical situations, the change of the drainage basin between the years is a rich change cycle and a lean change cycle, and has a certain regularity, and a certain time interval rule exists between the flood and the extra flood, so that the key point of adopting the method is to perform key analysis on the change regularity (statistical parameter time sequence change rule) of the statistical characteristics of the flood in the years, thereby providing probability distribution of flood generation in the future period for decision makers, and further analyzing corresponding design flood and allowed initial water level thereof, thereby determining the flood limit water level dynamic control domain.
The method comprises the following basic steps: firstly, the design flood results of different 'future periods' are analyzed, and flood peak and volume statistical characteristics and flood process calculation results of different frequencies are calculated. Analyzing flood regulation results of different starting water levels (flood limit water levels), adopting the original design for relevant basic data of parameters such as flood control dispatching modes and rules thereof, water level reservoir capacity, water level discharge curves and the like, and when the flood regulation results meet constraint conditions (namely meet the allowable maximum discharge of flood under the downstream flood control standard), namely, the flood regulation results are satisfactory dynamic control upper limit water levels, and if the flood regulation results do not meet the constraint conditions, the starting water level needs to be reselected for re-judgment.
And adopting formula statements for further explanation. The process of calculating the flood limit water level according to flood regulation of different frequencies in the future period is a decision process of seeking the highest starting water level meeting flood control safety constraints only in the originally designed flood limit water level and the prosperous water storage level because the scheduling mode and the rules thereof are known, and belongs to the one-dimensional optimization problem. Can be summarized as follows:
the target is as follows: maxj { ZQj(Zi,qv)}
And (3) constraint: zd is less than or equal to ZQj≤Zxl；Zi≤Zi*；qv≤qv*
j＝1,2,......，N；i＝1,2,......，F；v＝1,2,......，H
In the formula: zdDesigning a flood limiting water level for the original; zxlThe water level is the benefit of the fun; zQjAdjusting the water level scheme for the jth; z is a linear or branched memberjDesigning the highest flood regulation water level of the frequency flood for the ith starting water level regulation scheme; z* iDesigning the highest flood regulation water level of the frequency flood for the ith design time; q. q.svRegulating the maximum flood discharge flow of the flood with the vth downstream flood control standard frequency for the corresponding jth starting water level regulation scheme; q. q.s* vAnd (4) the maximum discharge quantity allowed by flood regulation of the v downstream flood control standard frequency flood in the original design.
The dynamic flood limit water level control domain determined by the annual flood change law has the following defects: according to the method principle of determining the flood limit water level by considering the annual flood change rule, the method focuses on the probability distribution of flood occurrence in the future period, and can effectively pre-judge the future period for decision makers and make decisions. The inter-annual flood change rule and characteristics can be effectively analyzed in the intra-annual flood change rule method, but the scheduling rule has the following defects.
1. In the method, the 'future period' is mainly considered, the method is mainly used for distributing the probability of flood occurrence, and the flood scheduling is not mentioned. The method can be effectively combined with the results of flood season stages, but flood regulation rules and a dispatching mode of the method still adopt related schemes in the original design, the dispatching rules adopted in the original design are the dispatching rules which are drawn up according to the current normal water storage level, from the perspective of absolute safety, flood corresponding to the resistance to rare flood, check and design frequency is mainly considered, in actual operation, the flood which is frequently encountered by the reservoir is medium-low frequency flood, and the later flood period which considers the 'future period' is definitely much smaller than the flood result which considers the maximum flood in the whole year in the original design, and the generality of the flood regulation rules is deficient; meanwhile, in consideration of the fact that the professional technical level of management and scheduling personnel at the basic level is not high, in actual operation, the management and scheduling personnel need to know the probability of flood in the future and want to know the scheduling mode which is convenient to operate and wide in application range when the flood comes temporarily.
2. Considering that the weather forecast precision of China is high at present, the weather forecast is combined with the flood forecast to analyze the flood which may face, and the capacity of dispatching flood resources can be effectively improved. The method does not use means and contents related to weather forecast and flood forecast, and for example, by using weather and flood forecast information, a flood dispatching scheme can be further optimized, the reservoir dispatching capacity is improved, and the water resource utilization rate is improved.
Referring to fig. 2, the invention provides a flood season staged dynamic flood limit water level determination method based on a pre-discharge rule, which includes the following steps:
step S1: finely dividing flood season analysis into stages according to the atmospheric circulation background of a basin where a reservoir is located and the seasonal rule analysis of rainstorm flood, calculating the degree of each period of the flood season belonging to a main flood season by selecting a representative index describing the characteristics of the flood season, finally dividing the flood season of the reservoir into a plurality of intervals, and obtaining flood process lines with different frequencies in the corresponding intervals;
step S2: analyzing flood limiting water levels of different periods and different frequencies, and using the flood limiting water levels Z of different periods and different frequenciesFlood seasonAdjusting the water level as the starting point to perform trial calculation;
step S3: determining an effective pre-venting time point (t)Preparation of) Preload (q)Preparation of) And peak nodes (Q)j)；
(1) Analysis of validity forecast period (t)Preparation of)
The time of the effective forecast period is influenced by the effective forecast period of flood forecast, the transmission time of forecast information, the rainfall forecast error time, the scheduling operation time, the decision time, the switching-off time and other factors.
Effective forecast time T for flood forecastSee
The forecast time refers to the effective forecast period of flood forecast, and is generally the flood propagation time of a drainage basin; considering the effective forecast period T for flood forecast by integrating the rain conditions under the condition of accurate weather forecastSee。
At other times
The other time is the time influencing the effective execution of the dispatching instruction by the reservoir when the actual implementation of dispatching the opening of the reservoir gate. Error of rainfall forecastTime TDescendTime T for transmitting forecast informationConveying applianceScheduling operation time, decision time and switching-off time TSink (C). The time can be cumulatively analyzed based on scheduling experience.
Effective anticipation period (t)Preparation of)
Time of validity forecast period (t)Preparation of) Effective forecast period (T) for flood forecastSee) Error time of rainfall forecast (T)Descend) -the time of transmission (T) of the forecast informationTransmission device) Scheduling operation time, decision time and switching-off time (T)Sink (C)) + effective forecast period time of rainfall (T)j)。
(2) Pre-venting amount (q)Preparation of)
The pre-discharge is based on the premise that the downstream flood control risk is not increased, and the safety discharge of the river control section of the drainage basin is generally taken as a value through the analysis of the scheduling rule.
(3) Flood peak node Qj
The flood peak nodes are the flood peak flow corresponding to the effective pre-discharge time point by analyzing the common nodes of the reservoir water according to the condition of the basin common water (common flood discharge flow).
Step S4: trial calculation flood limit water level ZFlood 1
a. Trial calculation preparation: performing trial calculation analysis by adopting the flood process line with the corresponding frequency, the water level-discharge curve and the water level-storage capacity curve of the reservoir according to the flood process line with different frequencies in each different staging interval determined in the step S1;
b. according to corresponding flood process lines in different stage intervals, a scheduling rule is drawn up:
drawing up and calculating the flood limit water level ZFlood 1(ii) a Peak flow Q when entering warehouse1Less than QjThe incoming flow is equal to the discharge q1Keeping the current flood limit water level unchanged to determine t1Time storage capacity V1And obtain the flood limit water level ZFlood 11(ii) a Peak flow Q when entering warehouse2Greater than QjCalculating the time period according to the flood course line, for t2The time is calculated according to t1Flow rate Q of entering warehouse1And t2Flow Q into the warehouse2Will t2Instantaneous let-down flow q2Control is qPreparation ofThe water is discharged downwards, according to a water quantity balance formula,
calculating t2The variation Δ V of the water storage of the reservoir at the end of time, V2＝V1+Δ V, to derive a corresponding water level Z2(ii) a Continue to calculate the time to 2+ n, such as water level ZFlood season 2+ nAt tPreparation ofWhen the water level is recovered to the original flood season limited water level within the time, the assumed Z is consideredFlood 1Satisfying the requirement, if not, recalculating flood limit water level ZFlood 1Until the requirements are met.
Step S5: according to the step S4, each section of the reservoir has flood limiting water level with different frequency, different flood limiting water levels of different sections are calculated and analyzed, the flood limiting water level suitable for the corresponding section is analyzed by taking safety factors and meeting the main principle of each working condition as main principles, and the flood limiting water level is planned to be used as the planned flood limiting water level value Z of the corresponding sectionFlood s。
Step S6: with newly planned flood limit water level ZFlood sAs the initial water level, the water balance calculation is carried out again according to the flood process line, and the initial water level is determined at tPreparingWithin time will ZFlood sThe flood is restored to the original flood limit water level, and the Z is checked and calculated at the same timeFlood sWhether the corresponding leakage exceeds qPreparation of。
The method comprises the following steps: according to the corresponding flood process line, when t1Peak flow Q of warehouse entry at any moment1Less than QjThe incoming flow is equal to the discharge q11Maintaining the current flood limit water level unchanged according to the reservoir capacity V11To give the corresponding ZFlood 21(ii) a When t is2Peak flood flow at time greater than QjTo t21Trial calculation of time, assuming t21The time let-down flow is q21According to the formula of water balance,
find t2Variation Δ V of water storage of reservoir at end of time1Then V is21＝V11+ΔV1According to V21Can calculate the corresponding q21', when q21' and q21When they are substantially the same, q is considered to be21If the calculation is required, the calculation is carried out again. Continuing to calculate to 2+ n time when ZFlood 2+ nAt tPreparation ofWhen the water level is restored to the original flood limit water level within the time, such as q2+nLess than qPreparation ofThen, consider ZFlood sIs suitably ZFlood seasonI.e. meets the requirements, if not (q)21Greater than qPreparation ofEtc.), then Z is re-assumedFlood sThe recalculation step S5 is performed.
Step S7: and obtaining corresponding flood limit water level values of different staging intervals through the step S4 and the step S6, determining the final flood limit water level, and dynamically adjusting the corresponding frequency flood limit water level control domain obtained according to the step S4 when the reservoir actually dispatches and operates.
The method for determining the flood season stage dynamic flood limit water level based on the pre-discharge rule has the key points that the method is effectively combined with the flood season stage result, and the method is developed by a trial calculation method with the aim of not increasing the risks of the reservoir per se and upstream and downstream and without modifying the original design as a design concept.
The flood season stage dynamic flood limit water level determination method based on the pre-discharge rule breaks through the defect that the initial discharge flow of the flood discharge hole is needed when the water storage capacity is calculated by other methods, analyzes the water storage capacity by adopting the scheduling rule, and performs trial calculation on the water storage capacity again by using the scheduling rule, so that the calculation mode of the initial discharge flow of the flood discharge hole is avoided; meanwhile, the multi-year operation condition of the reservoir and the runoff law of the drainage basin are sorted and analyzed, so that the method can be effectively combined with the result of the flood season staging, and is favorable for reservoir scheduling personnel to perform personalized scheduling in different control intervals. The scheduling principle is a core point, when the peak flow is large or small, the water begins to be drained at what time, the flood discharge amount is large or large, and the water level can be restored to the original flood limit water level, so that the proper flood limit water level value is found. After adjusting the flood limit water level, reservoir scheduling personnel can carry out pre-discharge operation under the condition of more or less forecast period, and can further ensure the flood control safety of the reservoir and enable flood resource utilization through reasonable operation.
The method is characterized in that the method mainly analyzes and schedules the frequently encountered water (frequently flood discharge flow) of the watershed where the reservoir is located, the flood control risks of the reservoir per se and upstream and downstream are not increased on the basis of not changing the original design and calculation working conditions, the watershed where the reservoir is located is different due to different conditions of each reservoir, and related specific data cannot be explained in the invention. The corresponding effective forecast period and the pre-discharge amount of the reservoir can be obtained by combing the operation condition of the reservoir for many years and the runoff law of the drainage basin, and trial calculation is carried out on a scheduling principle, wherein the scheduling principle is a core point, when the peak flow is large or small, the water starts to be discharged at what time, the discharge amount is large or small, and the discharge time is long, so that the water level can be restored to the original flood limit water level. After adjusting the flood limit water level, reservoir scheduling personnel can carry out pre-discharge operation under the condition of more or less forecast period, and can further ensure the flood control safety of the reservoir and enable flood resource utilization through reasonable operation.
The invention provides a dynamic flood limiting water level method taking safe pre-discharge amount and effective pre-discharge time as sensitive factor control values, aiming at not increasing the safety of a reservoir per se and upstream and downstream and on the premise of being convenient for operation by a reservoir manager. The method does not change the design concept of the original design in principle, the scheduling concept is based on the flood which is always met, the early-stage scheduling of the low-medium frequency flood is emphasized, and the original scheduling rule is still used when the large flood occurs.
The invention aims to analyze the effective forecast period, the pre-discharge amount and the corresponding flood peak node of the reservoir by utilizing the relevant information of rainfall forecast and flood forecast. And meanwhile, trial calculation is carried out by adopting a water balance method according to the flood season staging results obtained according to the annual change rule of the basin where the reservoir is located, and the trial-calculated flood limit water level can be restored to the original flood limit water level which is a reasonable flood limit water level value in the effective prediction period.
Aiming at the allowable pre-storage capacity parameter in the improved pre-discharge capacity constraint calculation method, the parameter needs to adopt a 'warehousing flow value during the discharge of a flood discharge water delivery tunnel', but not all water delivery tunnels with flood discharge functions of reservoirs are adopted, and meanwhile, the method for determining the initial discharge flow is to analyze according to the data with the year of water abandonment and fail to analyze all historical data; meanwhile, the method is not combined with the result of flood season staging. The invention utilizes the correlation method of analyzing the effective forecast period in the improved pre-discharge capacity constraint method, does not calculate the pre-discharge water quantity parameter, calculates and analyzes the design flood of different period intervals and the newly formulated flood regulation rule, further calculates the pre-discharge water quantity in another mode, and effectively combines the method with the period achievement of the flood period to further calculate the flood limit water level of different intervals.
In the invention, aiming at the situation that a flood change rule method in consideration of the year is used for determining the flood limit water level, the flood regulation rule and the dispatching mode still adopt related schemes in the original design, and the dispatching rule is not effectively combined with weather forecast and flood forecast. The idea of the invention is to calculate the safe pre-discharge amount and the effective pre-discharge time by taking the weather forecast and the flood forecast as key reference values, adjust the dispatching rule by the way of pre-discharging the flood under the safe pre-discharge amount by the reservoir, and further try to calculate the flood limit water levels in different intervals.
The reasonable effective forecast period is the time obtained by carrying out forecast based on rainfall forecast, flood forecast and scheduling experience and possible conditions, and the method not only analyzes the current situation of the reservoir, but also forecasts various working conditions which may occur in the future, and is a method for finding a relative balance point in risk and benefit.
According to the invention, the flood season stage achievement obtained by fully utilizing the characteristics of the variation rule of the watershed where the reservoir is located can be divided into the intervals of the previous flood season, the previous flood transition season, the main flood season, the later flood transition season, the later flood season and the like, and based on the achievement, reservoir scheduling personnel can perform targeted scheduling in different intervals. The method does not change the design concept of the original design in principle, the change of the scheduling rule is mainly based on the frequent flood, the method focuses on the early-stage scheduling of the low-medium frequency flood, and the originally designed scheduling rule is still used when the large flood occurs.
The invention is not only beneficial to ensuring the flood control safety of the reservoir, but also can maximize the efficiency of flood resource utilization by combining the achievement of flood period stages.
The above examples only express embodiments of the present invention, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the present invention. It should be noted that, for a person skilled in the art, several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the inventive concept, which falls within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present patent shall be subject to the appended claims.
Claims (4)
1. A flood season stage staged dynamic flood limit water level determination method based on a pre-discharge rule is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1: finely dividing flood season analysis into stages according to the atmospheric circulation background of a basin where a reservoir is located and the seasonal rule analysis of rainstorm flood, calculating the degree of each period of the flood season belonging to a main flood season by selecting a representative index describing the characteristics of the flood season, finally dividing the flood season of the reservoir into a plurality of intervals, and obtaining flood process lines with different frequencies in the corresponding intervals;
step S2: analyzing flood limiting water levels of different periods and different frequencies, and using the flood limiting water levels Z of different periods and different frequenciesFlood seasonAdjusting the water level as the starting point to perform trial calculation;
step S3: determining an effective pre-venting time point (t)Preparation of) Preload (q)Preparation of) And peak nodes (Q)j)；
Step S4: trial calculation flood limit water level ZFlood 1；
Step S5: through a reservoirEach interval has flood limit water level with different frequency, different flood limit water levels of different intervals are calculated and analyzed, and suitable flood limit water level Z of the corresponding interval is analyzedFlood 1Drawing up the flood limit water level as the corresponding section drawn up flood limit water level value ZFlood s；
Step S6: with newly planned flood limit water level ZFlood sAs the initial water level regulation, the water balance calculation is carried out again according to the flood process line, and the water balance is determined at tPreparation ofWithin time will ZFlood sRestoring to the original flood limit water level, and simultaneously calculating ZFlood sWhether the corresponding leakage exceeds qPreparing；
Step S7: and obtaining corresponding flood limit water level values of different stage intervals through the steps S4, S5 and S6, determining a final flood limit water level, and dynamically adjusting the corresponding frequency flood limit water level control domain obtained according to the step S5 when the reservoir is actually scheduled and operated.
2. The flood season stage dynamic flood limit water level determination method based on the pre-discharge rule according to claim 1, characterized by comprising the following steps: effective pre-venting time point (t) in said step S3Preparing) Is determined by the effective forecast period (T) of the flood forecastSee) Error time of rainfall forecast (T)Descend) -the time of transmission (T) of the forecast informationTransmission device) Scheduling operation time, decision time and switching-off time (T)Sink (C)) + effective forecast period time of rainfall (T)j)。
3. The flood season stage dynamic flood limit water level determination method based on the pre-discharge rule according to claim 2, characterized by comprising the following steps: the pre-bleeding amount (q) in said step S3Preparation of) Controlling the safe discharge of the cross section for the river channel of the drainage basin; the peak flood node (Q) in the step S3j) The flood peak flow corresponding to the pre-discharge time point.
4. The flood season stage dynamic flood limit water level determination method based on the pre-discharge rule according to claim 3, characterized by comprising the following steps: the trial calculation flood limit water level ZFlood 1Is that the respective different staging intervals determined according to step S1 are differentPerforming trial calculation analysis on the flood process line under the frequency by adopting the flood process line with the corresponding frequency, the water level and the discharge curve of the reservoir and the water level and reservoir capacity curve;
drawing up and calculating the flood limit water level ZFlood 1When peak flow rate Q of warehouse entry1Less than QjThe incoming amount is equal to the discharge amount q1Keeping the current flood limit water level unchanged to determine t1Time storage capacity V1And obtain the flood limit water level ZFlood 1When peak flow rate Q of warehouse entry2Greater than QjCalculating the time period according to the flood course line, for t2The time is calculated according to t1Flow Q into the warehouse1And t2Flow Q into the warehouse2Will t2Instantaneous let down flow q2Is controlled to be qPreparation ofThe water is drained, and according to a water quantity balance formula,
find t2The variation Δ V of the water storage of the reservoir at the end of time, V2＝V1+ Δ V, to derive a corresponding water level Z2Continuously calculating the time till 2+ n stage when the water level ZFlood 2+ nAt tPreparation ofWhen the water level is restored to the original flood season limited water level within the time, ZFlood 1Meets the requirement when the water level Z isFlood 2+ nAt tPreparation ofWhen the time is recovered to the original flood season limited water level outside the time, the flood limit water level Z is recalculatedFlood 1Until the requirements are met.
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