CN115034521A - Stage-by-stage floating control method for water level of step reservoir in flood season - Google Patents
Stage-by-stage floating control method for water level of step reservoir in flood season Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides: a stage-by-stage floating control method for the flood season water level of a cascade reservoir comprises the following steps: selecting and adopting a combination of one or more flood season operating water level floating application modes based on the flood resource utilization potential of the cascade reservoir; analyzing flood characteristics and flood control requirements of the cascade reservoir; when the water level floating mode in the main flood season is adopted, analyzing the influence degree of pre-discharge of different floating water levels on downstream flow and water level, and calculating the floating application condition and the control mode of the operating water level of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season; when a flood season end stage water level floating operation mode is adopted, taking the guarantee of flood prevention safety of the flood season end stage as a control condition, calculating a flood resource utilization process of the flood season end stage of the cascade reservoir; and evaluating the risk and benefit of the adopted flood season operation water level floating application mode. The invention establishes a cascade reservoir group flood resource utilization mode which integrates flood control demand analysis, main flood season water level floating, flood season tail end water level floating operation and risk benefit evaluation.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of flood control, and particularly relates to a stage floating control method for a water level of a cascade reservoir in a flood season.
Background
With the acceleration of the global urbanization process, the contradiction between water resource supply and demand is in a worsening trend, and the drought problem can seriously affect the economic development and ecological environment of human beings.
Flood and drought damage caused by uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and huge flood utilization potential in flood season prompt the proposal of the concept of flood resource utilization. On the premise of ensuring flood control safety, the flood resource utilization potential is scientifically evaluated, and according to the comprehensive utilization demand of a drainage basin and the current situation of hub project development, a reasonable and effective flood resource utilization mode is selected and implemented to scientifically regulate, store and utilize flood resources, so that the effective supply of water resources is increased in an effort, harm is changed into benefit, the flood resource utilization potential evaluation method is an important measure for relieving contradiction between water resource supply and demand, and is also a difficult point problem of analysis of current flood resource utilization.
The flood control system for drainage basin is generally formed by matching a reservoir as a backbone, a flood storage area, a sluice, a river regulation project and the like on the basis of a dike. The reservoir engineering plays a great role in flood control and disaster reduction in the flow field, power generation and shipping, ecological water replenishing, comprehensive utilization of water resources and the like due to the huge reservoir capacity adjusting capacity and flexible scheduling mode.
The existing research results provide a series of active explorations for the flood resource utilization mode of the cascade reservoir group, the analysis range is expanded from a single reservoir to the reservoir group, the flood resource utilization mode is dynamically controlled from flood resource risk management to flood season operation water level, and important theoretical basis and technical support are provided for efficient utilization of flood resources in flood seasons and comprehensive benefit exertion of reservoir group flood control and benefit promotion. However, the existing reservoir flood resource utilization analysis mainly carries out analysis around a single object or a single mode, and a complete technical system and a system application mode aiming at the flood resource utilization mode of the cascade reservoir group are not reported yet, so that the popularization and application and practical guidance of the flood resource utilization technology are restricted to a certain extent.
Through the above analysis, the problems and defects of the prior art are as follows: in technical application objects, the prior art mainly performs optimal control around the flood season water level of a single hydraulic project such as a certain reservoir and the like, and the application objects are single; on the basis of a technical theoretical model, the prior art does not clarify the coordination relationship between resource utilization and risk control from a mathematical model, and lacks of theoretical support based on the mathematical model; in a complete technical mode, a system in the prior art is not systematically constructed, and a method and a technical system for stage floating control of the flood season water level of the cascade reservoir, which integrate flood control demand analysis, floating of the main flood season water level, floating operation of the end water level of the flood season and risk benefit evaluation, are not formed; in the aspect of utilization mode selection, the prior art mainly adopts a certain flood season water level optimization utilization mode to carry out work, and the means are not systematic and comprehensive.
In summary, the existing reservoir flood season water level optimization control analysis is mainly developed around a single object or a single mode, and a complete technical system and a system application mode aiming at the dynamic coordination control of the step flood season water level are lacked, so that the popularization, application and practical guidance of the flood resource utilization technology are restricted to a certain extent.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the defects in the background technology, and provides a stage reservoir flood period water level ascending control method, which establishes a stage reservoir group flood resource utilization mode integrating flood control demand analysis, main flood period water level ascending, flood period tail end water level floating operation and risk benefit evaluation.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: a stage-by-stage floating control method for the flood season water level of a cascade reservoir comprises the following steps:
selecting and adopting one flood season operating water level floating application mode or a combination of various flood season operating water level floating application modes based on the flood resource utilization potential of the cascade reservoir; the flood season operating water level floating application mode comprises a main flood season water level floating mode and a flood season end stage water level floating operation mode;
acquiring flood characteristics of the cascade reservoir and flood control requirements of flood control objects of the cascade reservoir;
when a main flood season water level floating mode is adopted, calculating a step reservoir main flood season operating water level floating application condition and a control mode according to flood characteristics of the step reservoir by taking the condition that the downstream flood control pressure is not increased after the water level of the main flood season floats as a control condition;
when a flood season end stage water level floating operation mode is adopted, quantifying flood prevention storage capacity requirements of a flood season end stage according to flood characteristics of a cascade reservoir, and calculating a flood season end stage storage capacity staged reservation scheme by taking a guarantee flood prevention requirement of the flood season end stage as a control condition;
and evaluating the risk and benefit of the adopted flood season operating water level floating application mode, and adjusting the control parameters in the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode based on the evaluation result.
In the above technical scheme, the process of selecting and adopting one flood season operating water level floating application mode or a combination of a plurality of flood season operating water level floating application modes based on the flood resource utilization potential of the cascade reservoir comprises:
dividing the flood resource utilization potential according to flood season time to obtain the flood resource utilization potential of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season and the final flood season;
respectively calculating whether the downstream flood control pressure is increased by independently adopting a main flood season water level floating mode, independently adopting a flood season end stage water level floating operation mode and combining the main flood season water level floating mode and the flood season end stage water level floating operation mode;
when the downstream flood control pressure is increased by independently adopting a main flood season water level floating mode, independently adopting a flood season end stage water level floating operation mode or combining the main flood season water level floating mode and the flood season end stage water level floating operation mode, any flood season operation water level floating operation mode is not adopted;
when the flood resource utilization potential of the main flood season is greater than 0, and the downstream flood control pressure is not increased by independently adopting the main flood season water level floating mode, and the flood resource utilization potential of the end segment of the flood season is equal to 0 or the downstream flood control pressure is increased by independently adopting the flood season end segment water level floating mode, the main flood season water level floating mode is independently adopted;
when the flood resource utilization potential of the main flood season is 0 or the downstream flood control pressure is increased by adopting a main flood season water level floating mode, the flood resource utilization potential of the end section of the flood season is greater than 0, and the downstream flood control pressure is not increased by adopting a flood season end section water level floating operation mode alone, the flood season end section water level floating mode is adopted alone.
When the flood resource utilization potential of the main flood season and the flood resource utilization potential of the end section of the flood season are both greater than 0, and the main flood season water level floating mode and the flood season end section water level floating operation mode are combined without increasing the downstream flood control pressure, the main flood season water level floating mode and the flood season end section water level floating operation mode are combined.
Among the above-mentioned technical scheme, the process that acquires the flood characteristic of step reservoir and flood control demand of flood control object thereof includes: analyzing flood occurrence time, flood magnitude, regional composition and encounter rules of flood in the watershed of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season and the end of the flood season as flood characteristics by taking flood data of the watershed controllable hydrological station as samples and combining flood sources of upstream and downstream of the watershed of the cascade reservoir and main tributary flood; on the basis of flood characteristics, the method takes the flood control standard of flood control objects of the cascade reservoir as a condition, adopts daily average runoff of long-series flood seasons, calculates excess flood volume at different periods of the flood season and flood control reservoir capacity space required to be reserved by the cascade reservoir, and takes the excess flood volume and the flood control reservoir capacity space as flood control demands of the flood control objects of the cascade reservoir at different periods of the flood season.
In the technical scheme, the process of acquiring the floating application condition of the operating water level of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season comprises the following steps: the operating water level floating application conditions of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season comprise control stations and pre-discharge control flow of the control stations; when the forecast warehousing flow reaches the preset pre-discharge control flow of the corresponding control station in the flood forecast period of the cascade reservoir, the cascade reservoir needs to start pre-discharge; calculating to obtain the main flood source of the cascade reservoir based on the flood area composition and the encounter rule of the main flood period of the basin where the cascade reservoir is located, selecting hydrological stations distributed on the main flood source of the cascade reservoir as control stations of the cascade reservoir, and correspondingly setting pre-discharge control flow for each control station of the cascade reservoir, wherein the pre-discharge control flow set by each control station needs to ensure that the corresponding control station is enough pre-discharged to a flood prevention limit water level in a flood forecast period after the pre-discharge is started.
In the technical scheme, the process of calculating the floating control mode of the operating water level in the main flood season of the cascade reservoir comprises the following steps: calculating the influence degree of the cascade reservoir pre-discharge on downstream flood control objects and flood control sections after the control flow of the pre-discharge correspondingly set by each control station is adjusted step by adopting a long series daily runoff process; determining the maximum value of the pre-discharge control flow of the control station based on the principle that the influence degree meets the control requirements of downstream flood control safety, flood forecasting precision and river navigation requirements and the flood control risk of downstream flood control objects and flood control sections is not increased, calculating the floating application space and the control water level of the cascade reservoir corresponding to the maximum value of the pre-discharge control flow of the control station, and combining to form the maximum value of the value interval of the control parameter of the water level floating mode in the main flood season.
In the technical scheme, the process of calculating the stage reservation scheme of the storage capacity at the end of the flood season comprises the following steps: according to the flood characteristics and the upstream and downstream flood control situations of the cascade reservoir, combining the time variation trend of the downstream flood control demand of the cascade reservoir at the end of the flood season, deducting the flood control capacity required to be reserved in the flood control demand from the reserved flood control capacity of the cascade reservoir for the flood control object, and calculating to obtain the space of the cascade reservoir required to be reserved at the end of the flood season and the control water level corresponding to the space of the capacity, so as to form the maximum value of the value interval of the control parameter of the floating operation mode of the water level at the end of the flood season.
In the above technical solution, the calculation process of the time-dependent change trend of the flood control demand of the downstream flood control object at the end of the flood season includes: selecting a flood process of the cascade reservoir with high peak height at the end of the flood season and influencing flood dividing and storing amount of flood control objects in flood station flood data of the territory controllability as typical flood control annual flood according to flood characteristics of the cascade reservoir at the end of the flood season; taking the flood control pressure of the flood control section as a control condition without increasing, carrying out flood regulation calculation on flood control typical annual flood, and calculating the interception and storage excess flood volume of the sub-storage flood area when the flow exceeds the safe flow; taking the maximum value of the interception excess flood of different floods in the time period when the flow exceeds the safety flow as the flood control requirement in the time period; and arranging the flood control demands according to the sequence of the end periods of the flood season to form a continuous series matrix of the flood control demands, and taking the continuous series matrix as the change trend of the flood control demands of the downstream flood control objects at the end periods of the flood season along with time.
In the technical scheme, the process of calculating the space of the cascade reservoir needed to reserve the flood control reservoir capacity at the end of the flood season and controlling the water level comprises the following steps: taking the flood control storage capacity of the cascade reservoir as a flood control measure, calculating the flood control storage capacity space required by the cascade reservoir to absorb excess flood on the basis of the change trend of the flood control demand of the downstream flood control object at the end of the flood period along with time, taking the maximum value of the flood control storage capacity space required by different floods at the time, deducting the maximum value of the flood control storage capacity space required by different floods at the time from the reservation of the flood control storage capacity of the cascade reservoir for the flood control object, and taking the residual storage capacity as the flood control storage capacity space required by the cascade reservoir at the end of the flood period; and determining the control water levels of the tail sections of the flood periods of the cascade reservoirs at different time intervals by taking the non-reduction of the later flood control capacity of the reservoir as a judgment condition according to the requirement of reserving a flood control storage capacity space of the cascade reservoirs at the tail sections of the flood periods.
In the technical scheme, the risks comprise flood prevention risks in flood season and flood flooding risks of reservoir areas; the benefits are comprehensive benefits of flood control, power generation and water storage of the cascade reservoir.
In the above technical solution, the process of adjusting the control parameter in the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode based on the evaluation result includes: if the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode has risks, reducing the control water level amplitude in the flood season operating water level floating application mode;
after determining that the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode has no risk, calculating the maximum benefit generated by the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode based on the value interval of the flood season operating water level floating application mode;
and selecting the control parameter of the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode corresponding to the maximum benefit as the control parameter for finally determining the flood season operating water level floating application mode.
The beneficial effects of the invention are: the stage-by-stage floating control method and system for the flood season water level of the cascade reservoir, provided by the invention, have the advantages that safe, economic and reasonable determination of the dynamic control domain of the flood season running water level is considered, the flood resource utilization efficiency can be improved, the power generation benefit of a stage reservoir power station can be increased, the scheduling flexibility of the stage reservoir in the flood season can be improved on the premise of guaranteeing the flood control safety of the drainage basin, and the important promotion effect is played for the exertion of the comprehensive benefit of the stage reservoir. The specific description is as follows: (1) a complete technical system for stage floating of the flood season water level of the cascade reservoir group of the drainage basin, which integrates analysis of influence factors, selection of utilization modes and evaluation of risk benefits, is established, and the technical blank of optimal control of the flood season water level mainly aiming at single hydraulic engineering such as a certain reservoir and the like in the prior art is made up; (2) the analysis relation between the utilization potential of available flood resources of the reservoir and the selection of the scheduling risk and flood season water level floating mode is analyzed by combining the achievement of the flood characteristic rule, so that a technical implementation path with the step reservoir flood season water level staged floating judged by a computer is provided; (3) the floating control mode in the main flood season is provided, the control requirements of the downstream flood control safety, the flood forecasting precision and the river navigation requirement can be met, and the flood control risks of the downstream flood control object and the flood control section are not increased; (4) according to the method, the flood reclamation at the end of the flood season can improve the power generation head at the end of the flood season, improve the flood end water level and the energy storage at the end of the flood season, and increase the integral power generation benefit of the step. (5) The incremental benefits of flood resource utilization in the main flood season and the end flood season are analyzed, the fact that staged floating scheduling of the flood season water level of the cascade reservoir can be implemented is found, the overall power generation benefit of the cascade can be improved, on the basis of the flood scheduling in the flood season, the full utilization of the flood prevention reservoir capacity is analyzed in the end flood season, the cascade power generation benefit can be further improved on the basis of the flood scheduling in the flood season, the end flood water level is raised, and water storage after flood is better connected.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a stage floating control method for the water level of the cascade reservoir in the flood season.
Fig. 2 is a diagram of YC and an interval annual average flood process provided by the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is a runoff process diagram from 6 months 1 days to 9 months 30 days in a certain area provided by the embodiment of the invention.
Fig. 4 is a diagram of a typical flood incoming situation of a certain area and a certain year according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 5 is a diagram of a typical flood incoming situation of a certain area and a certain year according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 6 is a diagram of a typical flooding situation of a certain area in a certain year according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 7 is a diagram of a typical flooding situation of a certain area in a certain year according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 8 is a diagram of a typical flood incoming situation in a certain area and a certain year according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 9 is a diagram of a typical flooding situation of a certain area in a certain year according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 10 is a diagram of a situation that a certain area is flooded with water in a certain year according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 11 is a diagram of a situation that a certain area is flooded with water in a certain year according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 12 is a graph showing a change trend of flood control demand of a flood control object in the end of a flood season over time according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 13 is a graph illustrating the beneficial effects of increasing the power generation amount after the water level of the cascade reservoir is floated in the flood season according to the embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further described in detail with reference to the following drawings and specific examples, which are not intended to limit the invention, but are for clear understanding.
Specifically, as shown in fig. 1, the invention provides a stage floating control method for the flood season water level of a step reservoir, which comprises the following steps:
s1, selecting one flood season operation water level floating application mode or a combination of multiple flood season operation water level floating application modes based on the flood resource utilization potential of the cascade reservoir; the flood season operating water level floating application mode comprises a main flood season water level floating mode and a flood season end stage water level floating operation mode;
s2, analyzing the flood characteristics and flood control requirements of the cascade reservoir;
s3, when a main flood season water level floating mode is adopted, analyzing the influence degree of different floating water levels after pre-discharge on downstream flow and water level by taking the condition that the downstream flood control pressure is not increased after the water level of the main flood season floats as a control condition, and calculating the floating application condition and the control mode of the operating water level of the main flood season of the cascade reservoir;
s4, when a flood season end stage water level floating operation mode is adopted, quantifying flood season end stage flood control storage capacity requirements, taking guarantee of flood season end stage flood control safety as a control condition, and calculating a flood season end stage storage capacity staged reservation scheme; calculating the flood resource utilization process of the end segment of the flood season of the cascade reservoir based on the staged reservation scheme of the storage capacity of the end segment of the flood season;
and S5, evaluating the risk and benefit of the adopted flood season operation water level floating application mode, and adjusting the control parameters in the selected flood season operation water level floating application mode based on the evaluation result.
The invention also provides computer equipment which comprises a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and the computer program is executed by the processor, so that the processor executes the steps of the method for controlling the stage ascent of the flood season water level of the cascade reservoir in the technical scheme.
In step S1, the process of calculating the flood resource utilization potential of the cascade reservoir includes:
constructing a flood resource utilization database of the watershed step reservoir group: constructing a flood resource utilization database of the cascade reservoir group, wherein the defined parameters comprise:W Util 、W nature 、W Un-util respectively representing the available flood resource amount, the natural runoff amount in the flood season and the unavailable flood resource amount of the cascade reservoir, wherein r represents the regulation and storage capacity of the reservoir; wherein the content of the first and second substances,rscheduling risk under regulation capacityR（r) Needs to be controlled within a controllable rangeR 0 The lower discharge flow of the reservoir under the corresponding r regulation capacity needs to be controlled at the upper limit and the lower limit of the allowable discharge of the reservoir
Within the range. The flood resource utilization potential of the cascade reservoir is delta W Util . Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the data information control mode and the specific application mode of the available flood resource amount are as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,R 0 indicating regulation capacityrScheduling Risk ofR（r) The controllable range to be controlled;
respectively represent corresponding storage capacities asrTime-base reservoir dischargeq（r) The upper limit and the lower limit of the allowable discharging flow of the cascade reservoir to be controlled; the upper limit is the allowable safe discharge of the flood control demand of the downstream river corresponding to the cascade reservoir; the lower limit is the minimum discharge flow of the water used inside and outside the shipping, ecological and water supply riverway corresponding to the cascade reservoir, and the power generation flow requirement of the operation of the cascade reservoir power station unit is also considered.
The method includes the steps that a mode that the power station of the flood season step reservoir is full is adopted to conduct scheduling calculation on reservoir flood season warehousing runoff series, and the machine passing water amount of a power station unit is obtained through calculation of formulas (1) and (2)w power （r) And the amount of reservoir waterw storage （r) The flood resource amount can be utilized by the composed cascade reservoir;
the available flood resource amount under the regulation capacity r is as follows:
the amount of unavailable flood water is a function of the reservoir regulation capacity and the required minimum let-down flow of the reservoir, i.e.:
the theoretical available flood resource amount is the maximum available flood resource amount of the cascade reservoir
The corresponding reservoir regulation capacity isr * The minimum unavailable flood resource amount of the cascade reservoir isW * un-til :
The full flow of sending out of power station is let down and is satisfied the minimum let down flow that downstream water resource comprehensive utilization required, and the flood resource volume that can not utilize is not influenced by minimum let down flow, promptly:
when the interest-promoting discharge of reservoir regulation meets the minimum discharge flow required by a downstream river channel for power station discharge, the unavailable flood resource amount approaches to 0, and the full flood resource utilization is realized by all natural runoff in flood season, namely:
the maximum value of the theoretically available flood resource amount is the natural flood water amount in the flood season and is the final target of the analysis of the flood resource utilization mode of the cascade reservoir, namely
。
Regulating and storing capacity according to existing scheduling rules or design scheduling modes of cascade reservoirr 0 Calculating to obtain the current flood resource utilization amountW 0 Util The process comprises the following steps:
the process of calculating the difference value between the theoretically available flood resource amount and the current flood resource amount as the flood resource utilization potential of the cascade reservoir comprises the following steps:
calculating the flood resource utilization potential delta of the cascade reservoir by adopting the following formulaW Util ：
In the formula (9), the amount of the unavailable flood resource of the cascade reservoirW 0 un-til For the current situation of the cascade reservoir, the utilization potential delta of the cascade reservoir flood resources can meet the requirement of the downstream river channel on the minimum discharge flow of the power station for discharging when the step reservoir regulated is discharged with interestW Util Comprises the following steps:
the upper limit of the flood resource utilization potential of the cascade reservoir is the discharge amount under the condition of the current regulation capacity through the reservoir regulation and utilization.
Dividing time of a main flood season and time of a flood season end section according to flood characteristics; flood resource utilization potential deltaW Util The flood season is divided according to flood season time, and the flood resource utilization potential generated in the main flood season is
In flood seasonThe flood resource utilization potential of the end section is
。
Based on the flood resource utilization potential of the cascade reservoir, the process of selecting and adopting one flood season operating water level floating application mode or the combination of various flood season operating water level floating application modes comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,Risk() Is indicative of a risk that,Level FC indicating selected flood resource utilization, superscriptmajorIndicating the water level floating mode in the main flood seasonPostAnd (4) representing a water level floating mode at the end of a flood period.
Specifically, flood resource utilization potentials of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season and the end of the flood season are calculated respectively;
respectively calculating whether the downstream flood control pressure is increased by independently adopting a main flood season water level floating mode, independently adopting a flood season end stage water level floating operation mode and combining the main flood season water level floating mode and the flood season end stage water level floating operation mode;
when the downstream flood control pressure is increased by independently adopting a main flood season water level floating mode, independently adopting a flood season end stage water level floating operation mode or combining the main flood season water level floating mode and the flood season end stage water level floating operation mode, any flood season operation water level floating operation mode is not adopted;
when the flood resource utilization potential of the main flood season is equal to the flood resource utilization potential of the end section of the flood season and is more than 0, and the main flood season water level floating mode is independently adopted without increasing the downstream flood control pressure, the main flood season water level floating mode is independently adopted;
when the flood resource utilization potential of the main flood season is not equal to the flood resource utilization potential of the end of the flood season and is more than 0, and the main flood season water level floating mode and the flood season end water level floating operation mode are adopted in combination without increasing the downstream flood control pressure, the main flood season water level floating mode and the flood season end water level floating operation mode are adopted in combination;
when the flood resource utilization potential of the main flood season is zero or the downstream flood control pressure is increased by adopting a main flood season water level floating mode, the flood resource utilization potential of the end section of the flood season is greater than 0, and the downstream flood control pressure is not increased by adopting a flood season end water level floating operation mode alone, the main flood season water level floating mode is adopted alone.
In step S2, flood data of the watershed controlled hydrological station is used as a sample, and the flood sources of the upstream and downstream, main and branch flows of the watershed in which the cascade reservoir is located are combined. Analyzing the daily average runoff process of the river basin floods in the river basin where the cascade reservoirs are located in the main flood season and the end of the flood season by taking the flood data of the river basin controlled hydrological station as a sample and analyzing the flood generation time, the flood magnitude, the regional composition and the encounter rule of the river basin floods in the river basin where the cascade reservoirs are located in the main flood season and the end of the flood season as flood characteristics; on the basis of flood characteristics, the method takes the flood control standard of flood control objects of the cascade reservoir as a condition, adopts daily average runoff of long-series flood seasons, calculates excess flood volume at different periods of the flood season and flood control reservoir capacity space required to be reserved by the cascade reservoir, and takes the excess flood volume and the flood control reservoir capacity space as flood control demands of the flood control objects of the cascade reservoir at different periods of the flood season.
In the step S3, in the process of upward floating operation of the operating water level of the main flood season of the cascade reservoir, the long series actual measurement flood and the typical flood process are combined, and the influence degree of the upward floating operation condition and the upward floating operation control mode of the operating water level of the main flood season of the cascade reservoir on the reservoir pre-discharge capacity and the downstream control section is rechecked and analyzed.
Specifically, in the floating application process of the operating water level of the cascade reservoirs in the flood season, if a large flood is predicted to occur in a downstream flood control area, any reservoir in the cascade reservoirs needs to be pre-discharged and eliminated to the flood season limiting water level. The cascade reservoir downstream flood control object relates to a plurality of regions, in the falling process, the lower discharge flow of the reservoir is increased, the lower discharge flow is superposed with the incoming water of each downstream branch, the actual safe discharge of a river channel where the flood control object is located can be exceeded, and the flood control pressure of the downstream flood control object is increased, so that the reservoir pre-discharge capacity and the influence degree of a downstream control section need to be rechecked and analyzed in combination with long-series actual measurement flood and a typical flood process, the operating water level floating flood operating condition and the control mode of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season are provided on the basis, and the technical guarantee is provided for the safe operation of the flood control in the main flood season.
The process of acquiring the floating application condition of the operating water level of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season comprises the following steps: the operating water level floating application conditions of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season comprise control stations and pre-discharge control flow of the control stations; when the forecast warehousing flow reaches the preset pre-discharge control flow of the corresponding control station in the flood forecast period of the cascade reservoir, the cascade reservoir needs to start pre-discharge; calculating to obtain the main flood source of the cascade reservoir based on the flood area composition and the encounter rule of the main flood season of the basin where the cascade reservoir is located, selecting hydrological stations distributed on the main flood source of the cascade reservoir as control stations of the cascade reservoir, and correspondingly setting pre-discharge control flow for each control station of the cascade reservoir, wherein the pre-discharge control flow set by each control station needs to ensure that the corresponding control station is enough pre-discharged to a flood prevention limit water level in a flood forecast period after the pre-discharge is started.
In a flood forecast period, when the control station meets the pre-discharge starting condition, the reservoir water level gradually falls to the flood control limit water level of each reservoir, the flow rate of the discharged reservoir is controlled to be uniformly increased, so that the cascade reservoir can fall back to the flood control limit water level before the flood arrives through the pre-discharge, and the regulation and storage capacity of the follow-up possibly occurring flood is guaranteed; and selecting control parameters for flood pre-discharge of the cascade reservoir according to the control parameters.
The step reservoir main flood season operation water level floating control method comprises the following steps:
analyzing the influence degree of the selected pre-discharge control flow under gradual adjustment by adopting a long series daily runoff process of 6-9 months every year and on downstream flood control objects and flood control sections after pre-discharge of a cascade reservoir;
analyzing the result according to the influence degree, comprehensively analyzing the control factors of the downstream flood control safety, the flood forecasting precision and the river navigation requirement, determining the maximum value of the pre-discharged control flow of the control station on the principle of not increasing the downstream flood control object and the flood control section flood control risk, calculating to obtain the floating application space and the control water level of the cascade reservoir corresponding to the maximum value of the pre-discharged control flow of the control station, and combining the floating control mode in the main flood season.
In step S4, distribution law analysis and typical flood selection are performed on long series of actual measurement flood data for many years, and then flood control requirements of flood control objects at the end of a flood season are provided. Firstly, analyzing flood control requirements at the end of a flood season, and then demonstrating the reserved space of the flood control storage capacity of the cascade reservoir.
When the flood at the end of the flood period of the cascade reservoir declines, the flood control situation of the drainage basin is better, and feasibility is provided for the utilization of the flood resources at the end of the flood period of the cascade reservoir.
According to the upstream and downstream flood control situation, the flood magnitude and the flood area composition forecast, by combining the time variation trend of the flood control demand of the downstream flood control object at the end of the flood season, analyzing and proposing that the flood control storage space and the control water level of the cascade reservoir need to be reserved at the end of the flood season, and realizing the flood resource utilization and the support later-stage water storage of the cascade reservoir at the end of the flood season.
Through analysis of a long series of actually measured flood distribution rules and typical flood selection, the flood control demand of a flood control object at the end of a flood period is provided and used as the change trend of the flood control demand of a downstream flood control object at the end of the flood period along with time, and the process comprises the following steps:
selecting flood control in a typical year: the distribution characteristics of flood peak and flood volume of the flood in the end stage of the long-series flood season are analyzed through statistics, and the flood process of a cascade reservoir with large peak volume in the end stage of the flood season and influencing flood distribution and storage volume of flood control objects is selected from flood data of a flood station of a territorial controllability to serve as typical flood control annual flood;
analyzing excess flood volume at the end of flood season: under the control condition that the flood control pressure of a flood control section is not increased, flood regulation calculation is carried out on typical flood in flood control, and when the flow exceeds the safe flow, the branch flood storage area is used for storing excess flood. Taking the maximum value of the impounding excess flood of different floods in the time period when the flow exceeds the safety flow as the flood control requirement in the time period; and arranging the flood control demands according to the sequence of the end periods of the flood season to form a continuous series matrix of the flood control demands, and taking the continuous series matrix as the change trend of the flood control demands of the downstream flood control objects at the end periods of the flood season along with time.
The calculation process of reserving the flood control storage space and controlling the water level of the cascade reservoir at the end of the flood season comprises the following steps:
computing reserved space of flood control storage capacity: and carrying out flood regulation calculation on the typical flood with large peak height at the end of the flood season of the flood protection object to obtain the impounded water quantity of the cascade reservoir at the end of the flood season when the cascade reservoir corresponds to different typical floods, and proposing that a flood control storage space needs to be reserved at the end of the flood season of the cascade reservoir. Taking the flood control storage capacity of the cascade reservoir as a flood control measure, calculating the flood control storage capacity space required by the cascade reservoir to absorb excess flood on the basis of the change trend of the flood control demand of the downstream flood control object at the end of the flood period along with time, taking the maximum value of the flood control storage capacity space required by different floods at the time, deducting the maximum value of the flood control storage capacity space required by different floods at the time from the reservation of the flood control storage capacity of the cascade reservoir for the flood control object, and taking the residual storage capacity as the flood control storage capacity space required by the cascade reservoir at the end of the flood period.
Determining the control water level of the end stage of the flood period of the cascade reservoir: and determining the control water levels of the tail sections of the flood periods of the cascade reservoirs at different time intervals by taking the non-reduction of the later flood control capacity of the reservoir as a judgment condition according to the requirement of reserving a flood control storage capacity space of the cascade reservoirs at the tail sections of the flood periods.
In step S5, the step reservoir flood season water level staged floating control risk and benefit evaluation comprises the following steps:
and (3) carrying out influence evaluation on flood control risks in the flood season:
and (4) combining the calculation conclusions of the steps S1 to S4, simulating and calculating the flood regulation high water level of the cascade reservoir and the flood control protection effect on the flood control object when different flood types are encountered according to flood conditions corresponding to flood conditions possibly encountered by flood in different periods, historical maximum flood and flood control standards, so as to quantitatively evaluate the influence degree of the blocking and storage of the reservoir in the end stage of the flood period on the flood control effect.
And (3) carrying out influence assessment on the reservoir migration flooding risk:
and (4) combining the calculation conclusions from the step S1 to the step S4, respectively comparing the calculation standards of the reservoir design migration line, analyzing the absolute difference value between the flood process water level and the migration line when the migration standard is met with flood corresponding to flood, and quantitatively evaluating the influence of the floating application of the water level at the end of the flood period on the reservoir area migration risk.
And (3) carrying out calculation and evaluation on the benefit of the cascade reservoir:
and (5) combining the calculation conclusion of the step S1 to the step S4, and adopting long series of measured runoff data to respectively calculate the comprehensive benefits of flood control, power generation and water storage of the cascade reservoir.
If the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode has risks, reducing the water level amplitude in the flood season operating water level floating application mode; and after determining that the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode has no risk, calculating the control water level amplitude, the pre-discharge control flow and the like of each period time corresponding to the maximum benefit in the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode as control parameters for finally determining the flood season operating water level floating application mode.
The beneficial effect of the invention is proved by combining the data of the method in a step reservoir formed by matching an XLD reservoir, an XJB reservoir and an SX reservoir in a large watershed.
S1, dividing flood resource utilization potentials according to flood season time to obtain flood resource utilization potentials of the cascade reservoir in a main flood season and a final flood season, and selecting and adopting a combination of various flood season operating water level floating application modes based on the flood resource utilization potentials of the cascade reservoir:
calculating that the flood resource utilization potential of the main flood season and the flood resource utilization potential of the end of the flood season are both greater than 0, and if a main flood season water level floating mode and a flood season end water level floating operation mode are combined without increasing the downstream flood control pressure, a combination mode of the main flood season water level floating mode and the flood season end water level floating operation mode is combined;
s2, analyzing the flood characteristics and flood control requirements of the cascade reservoir;
the CLJ area controls the water inflow amount in intervals such as intervals of more than or equal to the basin main flow YC. In order to analyze the resource utilization mode of the flood at the end of the SX reservoir flood season under the cooperation of XLD and XJB, the flood characteristics of a CLJ river section, namely a ZC-LS interval and the encounters of the flood in the interval and the flood above YC need to be analyzed.
And on the basis of analyzing actual measured flow data of a drainage basin upstream main flow control station length series, carrying out statistics on the annual average flow process of the YC station and the annual average flow process of the YL interval flood season and drawing the graphs as shown in fig. 2 and fig. 3, and providing flood generation time, flood magnitude, area composition and encounter rules at the end of the main flood season and the flood season.
Analyzing the graph 2, it can be known that the interval flood season is earlier than the main flood season YC, the interval enters the main flood season from month 4, the incoming water is rapidly increased, the flow rate of the interval of month 5 is in the high platform stable region, the interval flood steep expansion period is from the middle ten days of month 6 to the bottom of month 6, the period is the YC flood rapid rise period, and the interval flood process and the YC flood process are superposed on the water expansion surface, so that the water expansion surface of the synthetic flow process is steeper, the flood peak is larger, and the synthetic flow process is a more obvious encounter period; in 7 months, the interval incoming water begins to fade rapidly, YC incoming water enters the main flood season, the synthesis process is mainly the dry running incoming water, and the peak height is large; and 8 months later, the interval incoming water is stable on a low-level platform, the upstream flood is on a secondary high-level platform in the flood season after being slightly faded, the synthetic incoming water is mainly upstream, the average value of YC is decreased by one step after the last ten days of 8 months, the interval incoming water is also continuously reduced, the synthetic flow is maintained after being faded rapidly, and the flow is faded stably until the middle ten days of 9 months, and no obvious rising occurs. Therefore, the YC station and YL station in the middle and last ten days of 8-9 months begin to flood, and flood fades gradually in flood season.
As can be seen from the analysis of fig. 3, CLJ flood is mainly determined by YC station flood, and its runoff characteristics are similar to those of YC station, and the maximum flood peak appears around 7 months and 15 days. From the middle ten days of 8 months, YC and the total inflow of the four waters are gradually reduced, the CLJ section flood shows a tendency of water recession, and the average runoff is reduced to 30000m after 9 months 3 The ratio of the water to the water is less than s.
And S3, when the main flood season water level floating mode is adopted, analyzing the influence degree of the different floating water levels after pre-discharge on the downstream flow and the water level by taking the condition that the downstream flood control pressure is not increased after the main flood season water level floats as a control condition, and calculating the floating application condition and the control mode of the operating water level of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season.
S301, obtaining the floating application conditions of the operating water level of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season;
comprehensively analyzing the current flood control situations and flood control requirements of YB and LZ cities, selecting water regime parameters of three flood control stations of LZ, GC and ZT according to the floating application conditions of the running water level of the main flood season of the cascade reservoir.
The forecast flow in the LZ forecast period is the main index of the pre-bleeding control. The LZ is a YB flood control station, the flow can directly reflect the flood control condition of the YB and can also visually reflect the influence degree of the superposed XLD and XJB cascade pre-discharge flow and the original discharge flow, so that the predicted flow in the LZ forecast period can be used as the control flow for pre-discharge.
The LZ and peak flow processes are shown in fig. 4-9. However, the GC is subject to large fluctuation and often has sudden rise and fall, and as shown in fig. 10 and 11, the GC peak appearance time is substantially consistent with the LZ peak, which is a main influence factor for forming the LZ peak. In order to influence flood control safety of yibin due to large fluctuation and over-quick water rise of water coming from a GC high field, flood in a GC forecast period needs to be used as control flow of pre-discharge of a step reservoir.
And comprehensively analyzing, namely taking flood of LZ and GC stations as control stations for judging pre-discharge of the XLD and XJB cascade reservoirs. And in the forecast period, when LZ and GC flood reach the set pre-discharge control flow, the cascade reservoir starts to pre-discharge, so that the reservoir water level is pre-discharged to the flood limit water level before the flood comes. The operating water level floating application conditions in the main flood season of the cascade reservoir are as follows: the pre-leakage control flow of the LZ of the control station is 37800m 3 S; the GC pre-leakage control flow of the control station is 26000m 3 /s。
S302, acquiring an operation water level floating control mode of the cascade reservoir in the main flood period;
and analyzing the influence degree of the XLD and XJB reservoir pre-discharge on downstream LZ, BXZ, ZT and other control sections under the condition that the control flow rate is gradually increased along with the LZ pre-discharge by adopting the daily runoff process of 6-9 months in each year in 19-20 years. Flow 37800m corresponding to LZ warning water level 3 And/s is used as an upper limit value of the pre-leakage judging index by taking the LZ flow as the pre-leakage judging index.
BXZ: along with the increase of LZ pre-discharge control flow, the flood control capability (25000 m) of the current situation that the flood exceeds BXZ caused by reservoir pre-discharge occurs 3 /s), but the number of superscalars does not increase with increasing LZ preflush control flow. The LZ pre-drain control flow exceeds 37800m 3 When the water is/s, the XLD and XJB cascade reservoirs are difficult to floodThe flood control water level is pre-discharged before the coming, so that the flood control risk in the flood season is increased. Therefore, the LZ flow may reach 37800m during the foreseeing period 3 When the reservoir starts to pre-discharge at the time of/s, the actual flood control safety of BXZ can be basically guaranteed, but the change trend of BXZ actual flood flow needs to be concerned in real-time scheduling, so that XJB is prevented from discharging and the flood control risk is increased.
And (3) LZ: the LZ pre-bleed control flow is 37800m 3 When the water level is lower than the second, the reservoir begins to discharge in advance in the forecast period, so that the YB city does not exceed the warning water level, and the total amount of the two reservoirs is 4.25 hundred million m 3 The reservoir can be completely pre-drained.
ZT: the influence analysis of reservoir pre-discharge on ZT shows that LZ flow reaches 31700m in the forecast period 3 The two reservoirs start to discharge in advance at the time of/s, and the LZ station can be ensured not to exceed 43000m of corresponding flow of the warning water level 3 And s. When the LZ pre-drain control flow exceeds 31700m 3 In the time of/s, the year that the LZ exceeds the warning water level and the override control flow are increased correspondingly with the increase of the control flow.
The pre-discharge control parameters adopt perennial daily runoff, and the comparison with the typical flood in the period of 6 hours shows that the flow exceeding the warning water level in the LZ flow process in the period of 6 hours is 37800m 3 The time period of/s is only continuous for 6-12 hours, the flow in the daily runoff process is the average value of one day, and artificial peak clipping may occur when daily average flow is adopted. Therefore, on the basis of the above conditions, the water levels of XLD and XJB are raised by 2m and 2.5m (total storage capacity is 4.25 hundred million m) by adopting the simulation calculation of 6-field flood with the time interval length of 6 hours 3 ) Further checking and correcting the pre-leakage control condition, wherein BXZ flow is represented by XJB let-down (PS), and LZ warning water level corresponds to 37800m 3 (s, BXZ actual flood control capability corresponds to a safe discharge capacity of 25000m 3 The corresponding flow of the LZ warning water level is 43000m 3 And/s, the vertical solid line is the pre-leakage end time.
After the water level floating application in the SX reservoir in the flood season, the medium and downstream flood control, the sediment accumulation in the reservoir area, the dam lower flushing and the power generation benefit of a power station are influenced. And (4) designing schemes of 147m, 148m and 150m for the floating water level of the SX reservoir to carry out influence analysis and calculation, and comparing the schemes with earlier-stage results.
According to the characteristics and encounter analysis of the flood in the drainage basin, the influence of the water level floating up to the downstream in the drainage basin in the flood season is analyzed by selecting the larger flood. After the operation water level of the SX reservoir in the flood season floats upwards, the reservoir capacity is emptied by adopting a pre-drainage method, and the drainage duration analysis forecast level is calculated according to 1-3 days. And the water level of the SX reservoir is reduced to 145m from the highest floating water level within 1-3 days, so that the discharge flow is increased.
The increase of the downstream water level value is influenced along with the rise of the water level; as the forecast period increases, the influence on the downstream water level value decreases; the influence values tend to be consistent from typical year to typical year. After the SX reservoir is floated at the operating water level in the flood season, the influence of pre-discharge on the water level of the S city station is obvious, and the influence on other stations in the downstream of the current area is small. Calculated according to the most unfavorable forecast time of 1 day, after the water level floats to 147m and above for predischarging, the increased downstream water level exceeds 1 m. In order to ensure that the pre-discharge flow does not exceed the safe discharge capacity of the J river section, the water discharge time is analyzed for more than 2 days when the water floats to more than 148 m.
The method for controlling the upward floating of the running water level of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season comprises the following steps: the LZ flow can reach 31700m in the meeting period 3 (s) or GC flow rate of 26000m 3 In the second, the cascade reservoir can safely discharge in advance, and the floating application space is 4.25 hundred million m 3 (wherein the control water level of the XLD reservoir is 2m, the control water level of the XJB reservoir is 2.5m, and the control water level of the SX reservoir is 148 m), and the flood control risk of downstream YB main urban areas, BXZ and LZ is not increased.
And S4, when a floating operation mode of the water level at the end of the flood season is adopted, quantifying the flood control storage capacity requirement at the end of the flood season according to the flood characteristics of the cascade reservoir, and calculating a stage reservation scheme of the storage capacity at the end of the flood season by taking the flood control requirement at the end of the flood season as a control condition.
According to the combined dispatching scheme of the upstream reservoir group and the middle-upstream reservoir group in the drainage basin, under the premise that flood control reservoir capacity required by the river reach of the XLD and XJB reservoirs is reserved, according to the flood control requirements of the downstream in the drainage basin, the SX reservoir is matched to undertake the flood control tasks of the downstream in the drainage basin, and flood control stations such as S city and CLJ are taken as main control targets. According to the occurrence time and magnitude of the downstream flood in the drainage basin and the encountering rule of the upstream flood, the decline trend of the downstream flood in the drainage basin at the end of the flood season has occurred, the upstream flood is gradually weakened, and the drainage basin flood control situation is better, so that feasibility is provided for the utilization of flood resources at the end of XLD, XJB and SX reservoir flood seasons. The XLD, the XJB and the SX reservoir are an organic flood control whole body, forecast is formed according to upstream and downstream flood control situations, flood magnitude and flood areas, and the change trend of flood control demands of the downstream in the flood area, particularly the CLJ area, along with time is combined, the three reservoirs are analyzed and proposed to reserve the flood control reservoir capacity space and control the water level at the end of the flood period, so that powerful technical support is provided for flood resource utilization and later-stage water storage of the three reservoirs at the end of the flood period.
S401, calculating the change trend of the flood control demand of the downstream flood control object along with time at the end of the flood season:
according to an SX reservoir flood control scheduling mode, when the water level in a flood season is higher than a CLJ compensation control water level, the reservoir mainly corresponds to the situation that large flood occurs at the upstream of a drainage basin, and when the flood season starts from a flood limit water level, a flood control compensation scheduling mode for a CLJ area is firstly adopted to reduce the separated flood storage pressure of the CLJ area. The CLJ area flood mainly comes from a basin main flow YC flood and an interval DTH water system, the long series actual measurement flood distribution rule analysis and typical flood selection are carried out, and then the flood control demand of the CLJ area at the end of a flood season is provided, and the CLJ area flood control method is a premise for analyzing the SX water conservancy junction to further store water in advance under the cooperation of XLD and XJB. Therefore, the flood propagation time is analyzed by the actually measured flood of the YC station and the total inflow of the DTH four waters and then superposed to be used as the flood of the CLJ area, and the worse typical flood process influencing the CLJ area flood storage capacity is provided by counting the distribution characteristics of the CLJ flood at the end of the long-series flood period on the flood peak and the flood capacity. The average flow of the long series in the CLJ area in a certain time interval exceeds 50000m 3 Peak flow per s and the time-dependent trend of the 3, 7 and 15 day floods.
CLJ peak flood flow exceeds 50000m 3 The water flow in a typical flood is basically YC station water, and the average flow rate of the YC station is 50848m 3 S, accounting for 85.76% of CLJ peak flood flow; average flow rate of total inflow of four water 8909 m 3 And/s accounts for 14.24% of the CLJ flow. The total inflow of four waters in the XX series of years is only 5 years more than 15% of the CLJ flood, accounting for 24% of the long series. From the flood peak flow and the variation trend of the maximum flood volume in 3, 7 and 15 days, from 8, 15 days, the CLJ flood peak flow is influenced by the total inflow of YC incoming water and DTH quadruple waterAnd the maximum three-day flood volume is gradually reduced along with the retirement of the flood season end, so that the CLJ flood at the flood season end presents a typical recession trend, and conditions are provided for gradually releasing flood control storage capacity and realizing flood resource utilization of the XLD, XJB and SX three storehouses at the flood season end.
Through two indexes of CLJ peak flow and maximum three-day flood volume, typical floods with large peak height and severe peak height in different periods at the end of a flood season are extracted.
And carrying out flood regulation calculation on typical floods with large peak height and severe peaks at the end of the CLJ flood season by adopting an SX reservoir, an XLD reservoir and an XJB reservoir to obtain impounded water quantity when the three reservoirs at the end of the flood season respond to different typical floods, and using the impounded water quantity as an important basis for reserving flood control reservoir capacity in the three reservoirs at different time intervals.
Carrying out flood regulation calculation on flood control typical year flood under the control condition that the flood control pressure of a flood control section is not increased, and calculating the interception and excess flood amount of the sub-accumulation flood area when the flow exceeds the safe flow; taking the maximum value of the impounding excess flood of different floods in the time period when the flow exceeds the safety flow as the flood control requirement in the time period; and arranging the flood control demands according to the sequence of the end periods of the flood season to form a continuous series matrix of the flood control demands, and taking the continuous series matrix as the change trend of the flood control demands of the downstream flood control objects at the end periods of the flood season along with time. The results are shown in FIG. 12.
S402, calculating the space of the flood control storage capacity and the control water level of the cascade reservoir, which need to be reserved at the end of the flood season:
according to the comprehensive analysis of 6 typical flood calculation results of three storehouses with severe flood season end, a small amount of flood control storage capacity needs to be reserved before certain days of XLD and XJB cascade reservoirs, an SX reservoir needs to reserve 43.98-16.85 hundred million meters of flood control storage capacity after certain days in the range of controlling the water level below 158m by implementing flood control compensation on CLJ 3 . When the residual SX reservoir of the reserved reservoir capacity is within 145-158 m of the reserved flood control reservoir capacity of the CLJ, the required reserved reservoir capacity is deducted downwards from the SX reservoir 158m, and the corresponding floating water level is 151.2-155.5 m.
The SX reservoir is a key control project of a flood control system of a certain drainage basin, and the reservation of the capacity of the three-reservoir combined dispatching flood control reservoir at the end of a flood season is essentially the capacity of the XLD and the XJB reservoir required by the downstream flood control in the drainage basin on the basis of considering the flood control at the river reach. With the gradual decline of the water coming from the YC station and the flood in the two lakes, the opportunity that the SX reservoir needs to implement the CLJ compensation scheduling in consideration is correspondingly reduced in the middle and the last ten days of a certain month, and the XLD, XJB and SX reservoirs have the feasibility of releasing the flood control storage capacity in different periods at the end of the flood season.
An SX reservoir: by systematically analyzing the flood control demand of the downstream in the drainage basin and the flood control risk of the drainage basin and the flood reservoir area flooding at the last stage of flood season, 43.98-16.85 hundred million meters of flood control reservoir capacity are reserved in the last stage of flood season SX reservoir after a certain day within the range of controlling the water level below 158m by implementing flood control compensation on CLJ 3 (ii) a When no large rainfall process exists in the upstream and the middle of the forecast drainage basin, the J river and CLJ water levels are lower than the warning water level, and 40.93 hundred million m for matching CQ and downstream flood control in the drainage basin are reserved in XLD and XJB 3 During storage, the SX reservoir can lift the operation water level at the end of the flood season by a camera, and the water level is controlled to be not more than 151.2m and 155.5m on a certain date.
XLD, XJB reservoir: the XLD and XJB reservoirs at the end of the flood season are matched to reduce the starting probability of downstream flood control in the flood area, and the operating water level has a space for further floating. When flood does not occur in the prediction of main branch at the upstream of the drainage basin, the bottom water at the middle and downstream is low, and the SX reservoir operates near the flood limit water level, the operation water level of the XLD and XJB reservoirs at the end of the flood season can be further increased on the basis of the upward floating application of the operation water level at the main flood season according to the water and rain conditions at the upstream and downstream, and 29.6 hundred million meters are reserved at the same time 3 The flood control storage capacity ensures the flood control safety of the CY river reach.
In conclusion, the reserved flood control storage capacity space of the XLD and XJB reservoirs at the end of the flood season is 29.6 hundred million m 3 The space of the flood control storage capacity, which is required to be reserved at the end of the SX reservoir flood season, is 43.98-16.85 hundred million m 3 And correspondingly controlling the water level to be not more than 151.2m and 155.5m respectively.
S5, evaluating the risk and benefit of the adopted flood season operation water level floating application mode
Calculating flood control risks in upstream and downstream flood seasons of an XLD (XLD), an XJB (X junction box) reservoir and an SX reservoir and flood control risks in immigration in a reservoir area, and if the selected flood season running water level floating application mode has risks, reducing the water level amplitude in the flood season running water level floating application mode; determining that no risk exists in the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode, and determining the range of main flood season water level floating and flood season end stage water level floating space of the cascade reservoir; and calculating the comprehensive benefits of flood control, power generation and water storage of the cascade reservoir in the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode, wherein the water level amplitude corresponding to the maximum profit is used as a control parameter for finally determining the flood season operating water level floating application mode, and the selected control parameter is a parameter corresponding to the maximum profit.
The embodiment of the invention achieves the following positive effects in the process of research and development or use, and indeed has great advantages compared with the prior art, as shown in fig. 13:
1) the flood recycling at the end of the flood season can improve the power generation head at the end of the flood season, improve the flood end water level and the energy storage at the end of the reservoir, and increase the overall power generation benefit of the step. Compared with the method for analyzing the scheduling scheme of the frequently encountered flood in the SX single reservoir only, after flood resources at the end of flood season are utilized, the average power generation amount of the three reservoirs in the overall flood season is increased by 3.82 hundred million kW.h, and meanwhile, the water abandon is reduced by 37.58 hundred million m 3 . The increase of the generated energy is mainly reflected in that the average generated energy of the XLD and XJB reservoirs is increased by 5.36 hundred million kW.h due to the increase of the generating water head, and the generated energy is reduced due to the reduction of warehousing and the blocking of the reservoirs by the SX reservoir. The reduction of the water abandon amount of the cascade reservoir shows that the final flood water level and the final energy storage of the three reservoirs are obviously increased.
2) On the basis of a three-reservoir combined common flood scheduling mode, incremental benefits of flood period end flood resource utilization are analyzed, and it can be found that the integral power generation benefits of the steps can be improved by implementing flood period end flood resource utilization and flood period common flood scheduling, and on the basis of flood period common flood scheduling, the full utilization of flood prevention reservoir capacity is analyzed at the flood period end, so that the step power generation benefits can be further improved on the basis of the common flood scheduling, the flood end water level is raised, and water storage after flood connection is better achieved. By taking an SX scheme for controlling the water level of 158m as an example, a three-storeroom frequent flood scheduling mode for analyzing the utilization of flood resources at the end of a flood season is adopted, so that the average power generation amount in the flood season is increased by 3.92 hundred million kW.h compared with the case of not adopting the flood season at the end of the flood season, and the power generation amount is increased by 8.24 hundred million kW.h compared with the case of only adopting the SX single-storeroom frequent flood scheduling scheme, and the cascade combination benefit is remarkably exerted.
3) A three-reservoir frequent flood scheduling mode for analyzing flood resource utilization at the end of a flood season has a certain influence on the operation water level of an SX reservoir in the flood season, and compared with a three-reservoir frequent flood scheduling scheme, the water level of the SX is averagely increased by 0.9m by adopting an XX-XX year actual measurement flood season runoff series, but the maximum water level of the SX is still below 158m in 84% of the years. The water level of the SX reservoir exceeds 158m in 10 years, and compared with a three-reservoir frequent flood scheduling scheme, the SX reservoir has five typical years of 1962, 1974, 1980, 1993 and 2005, the maximum running water level of 158.85m in 5 typical years has limited influence on the water level increase; the downstream ZC flow and LHT flow in the analysis can also show that the ZC flow control does not exceed 56700m 3 S, and LHT flow rate exceeds 60000 m 3 The year/s is basically consistent with the three-warehouse commonly encountered flood scheduling scheme, with the maximum number of days being X years of flood (40 days) and the second being X years of flood (39 days). Therefore, the flood resource utilization scheduling mode can be adjusted and the water level can be controlled by making prejudgment in advance in real-time scheduling, so that the flood control safety is ensured.
Those not described in detail in this specification are within the skill of the art.
Claims (10)
1. A stage-by-stage floating control method for the flood season water level of a cascade reservoir is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
selecting one flood season operating water level floating application mode or a combination of a plurality of flood season operating water level floating application modes based on the flood resource utilization potential of the cascade reservoir; the flood season operating water level floating application mode comprises a main flood season water level floating mode and a flood season end stage water level floating operation mode;
acquiring flood characteristics of the cascade reservoir and flood control requirements of flood control objects of the cascade reservoir;
when a main flood season water level floating mode is adopted, calculating a step reservoir main flood season operating water level floating application condition and a control mode according to flood characteristics of the step reservoir by taking the condition that the downstream flood control pressure is not increased after the water level of the main flood season floats as a control condition;
when a flood season end stage water level floating operation mode is adopted, quantifying flood prevention storage capacity requirements of a flood season end stage according to flood characteristics of a cascade reservoir, and calculating a flood season end stage storage capacity staged reservation scheme by taking a guarantee flood prevention requirement of the flood season end stage as a control condition;
and evaluating the risk and benefit of the adopted flood season operating water level floating application mode, and adjusting the control parameters in the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode based on the evaluation result.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein: based on the flood resource utilization potential of the cascade reservoir, the process of selecting and adopting one flood season operating water level floating application mode or the combination of various flood season operating water level floating application modes comprises the following steps:
dividing the flood resource utilization potential according to the flood season time to obtain the flood resource utilization potential of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season and the end section of the flood season;
respectively calculating whether the downstream flood control pressure is increased by independently adopting a main flood season water level floating mode, independently adopting a flood season end stage water level floating operation mode and combining the main flood season water level floating mode and the flood season end stage water level floating operation mode;
when the downstream flood control pressure is increased by independently adopting a main flood season water level floating mode, independently adopting a flood season end stage water level floating operation mode or combining the main flood season water level floating mode and the flood season end stage water level floating operation mode, any flood season operation water level floating operation mode is not adopted;
when the flood resource utilization potential of the main flood season is greater than 0, the downstream flood control pressure is not increased by independently adopting a main flood season water level floating mode, and the flood resource utilization potential of the end section of the flood season is equal to 0 or the downstream flood control pressure is increased by independently adopting a flood season end section water level floating mode, the main flood season water level floating mode is independently adopted;
when the flood resource utilization potential of the main flood season is 0 or the downstream flood control pressure is increased by adopting a main flood season water level floating mode, the flood resource utilization potential of the end section of the flood season is greater than 0, and the downstream flood control pressure is not increased by adopting a flood season end section water level floating operation mode alone, the flood season end section water level floating mode is adopted alone;
when the flood resource utilization potential of the main flood season and the flood resource utilization potential of the end of the flood season are both greater than 0, and the main flood season water level floating mode and the flood season end water level floating operation mode are combined without increasing the downstream flood control pressure, the main flood season water level floating mode and the flood season end water level floating operation mode are combined.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein: the process of obtaining flood characteristics of the cascade reservoir and flood control requirements of flood control objects thereof comprises: analyzing flood occurrence time, flood magnitude, regional composition and encounter rules of flood in the watershed of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season and the end of the flood season as flood characteristics by taking flood data of the watershed controllable hydrological station as samples and combining flood sources of upstream and downstream of the watershed of the cascade reservoir and main tributary flood; on the basis of flood characteristics, the method takes the flood control standard of flood control objects of the cascade reservoir as a condition, adopts daily average runoff of long-series flood seasons, calculates excess flood volume at different periods of the flood season and flood control reservoir capacity space required to be reserved by the cascade reservoir, and takes the excess flood volume and the flood control reservoir capacity space as flood control demands of the flood control objects of the cascade reservoir at different periods of the flood season.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein: the process of acquiring the floating application condition of the operating water level of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season comprises the following steps: the operating water level floating application conditions of the cascade reservoir in the main flood season comprise control stations and pre-discharge control flow of the control stations; when the forecast warehousing flow reaches the preset pre-discharge control flow of the corresponding control station in the flood forecast period of the cascade reservoir, the cascade reservoir needs to start pre-discharge; calculating to obtain the main flood source of the cascade reservoir based on the flood area composition and the encounter rule of the main flood season of the basin where the cascade reservoir is located, selecting hydrological stations distributed on the main flood source of the cascade reservoir as control stations of the cascade reservoir, and correspondingly setting pre-discharge control flow for each control station of the cascade reservoir, wherein the pre-discharge control flow set by each control station needs to ensure that the corresponding control station is enough pre-discharged to a flood prevention limit water level in a flood forecast period after the pre-discharge is started.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein: the process of calculating the floating control mode of the operating water level of the step reservoir in the main flood season comprises the following steps: calculating the influence degree of the cascade reservoir pre-discharge on downstream flood control objects and flood control sections after the control flow of the pre-discharge correspondingly set by each control station is adjusted step by adopting a long series daily runoff process; determining the maximum value of the pre-discharged control flow of the control station based on the principle that the influence degree meets the control requirements of the downstream flood control safety, the flood forecasting precision and the river navigation requirement without increasing the flood control risk of a downstream flood control object and a flood control section, calculating the floating application space and the control water level of the cascade reservoir corresponding to the maximum value of the pre-discharged control flow of the control station, and combining to form the maximum value of the value interval of the control parameter of the water level floating mode in the main flood season.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein: the process of calculating the stage reservation scheme of the storage capacity at the end of the flood season comprises the following steps: according to the flood characteristics and the upstream and downstream flood control situations of the cascade reservoir, combining the time variation trend of the downstream flood control demand of the cascade reservoir at the end of the flood season, deducting the flood control capacity required to be reserved in the flood control demand from the reserved flood control capacity of the cascade reservoir for the flood control object, and calculating to obtain the space of the cascade reservoir required to be reserved at the end of the flood season and the control water level corresponding to the space of the capacity, so as to form the maximum value of the value interval of the control parameter of the floating operation mode of the water level at the end of the flood season.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein: the calculation process of the change trend of the flood control demand of the downstream flood control object along with the time at the end of the flood season comprises the following steps: selecting a flood process of the cascade reservoir with high peak height at the end of the flood season and influencing flood dividing and storing amount of flood control objects in flood station flood data of the territory controllability as typical flood control annual flood according to flood characteristics of the cascade reservoir at the end of the flood season; taking the flood control pressure of the flood control section as a control condition without increasing, carrying out flood regulation calculation on flood control typical annual flood, and calculating the interception and storage excess flood volume of the sub-storage flood area when the flow exceeds the safe flow; taking the maximum value of the impounding excess flood of different floods in the time period when the flow exceeds the safety flow as the flood control requirement in the time period; and arranging the flood control demands according to the sequence of the end periods of the flood season to form a continuous series matrix of the flood control demands, and taking the continuous series matrix as the change trend of the flood control demands of the downstream flood control objects at the end periods of the flood season along with time.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein: the process of calculating the flood control storage space required to be reserved in the end of the flood season and controlling the water level of the cascade reservoir comprises the following steps: taking the flood control storage capacity of the cascade reservoir as a flood control measure, calculating the flood control storage capacity space required by the cascade reservoir to absorb excess flood on the basis of the change trend of the flood control demand of the downstream flood control object at the end of the flood period along with time, taking the maximum value of the flood control storage capacity space required by different floods at the time, deducting the maximum value of the flood control storage capacity space required by different floods at the time from the reservation of the flood control storage capacity of the cascade reservoir for the flood control object, and taking the residual storage capacity as the flood control storage capacity space required by the cascade reservoir at the end of the flood period; and determining the control water levels of the tail sections of the flood periods of the cascade reservoirs at different time intervals by taking the non-reduction of the later flood control capacity of the reservoir as a judgment condition according to the requirement of reserving a flood control storage capacity space of the cascade reservoirs at the tail sections of the flood periods.
9. The method of claim 1, wherein: the risks comprise flood prevention risks in flood season and flood flooding risks of reservoir areas; the benefits are comprehensive benefits of flood control, power generation and water storage of the cascade reservoir.
10. The method of claim 8, wherein: the process of adjusting the control parameters in the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode based on the evaluation result comprises the following steps: if the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode has risks, reducing the control water level amplitude in the flood season operating water level floating application mode;
after determining that the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode has no risk, calculating the maximum benefit generated by the selected flood season operating water level floating application mode based on the value interval of the flood season operating water level floating application mode;
and selecting the control parameter of the selected flood season running water level floating application mode corresponding to the maximum benefit as the control parameter for finally determining the flood season running water level floating application mode.
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