CN111768310B - Reservoir water replenishing potential prediction method and device and electronic equipment - Google Patents
Reservoir water replenishing potential prediction method and device and electronic equipment Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a device for predicting reservoir water replenishing potential and electronic equipment, and relates to the technical field of water quantity scheduling, wherein the method for predicting reservoir water replenishing potential comprises the steps of acquiring first flow information of the upstream of a reservoir to be analyzed; predicting the total flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period based on the first flow information; acquiring the current water storage capacity of a reservoir to be analyzed and the total water consumption of a river basin in a ecological water supplementing scheduling period; and predicting the water replenishing potential of the reservoir to be analyzed according to the total flow, the current water storage capacity and the total water consumption. The technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the invention can improve the calculation accuracy of the ecological water replenishing potential of the reservoir.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of water quantity scheduling, in particular to a method and a device for predicting reservoir water replenishing potential and electronic equipment.
Background
The water source for ecological water replenishing comprises local reservoir water, external water regulating water, urban reclaimed water and the like. In water resource allocation planning, it is necessary to predict ecological water replenishing potential of various water sources in advance so as to comprehensively arrange and optimize allocation water resources. At present, in ecological water replenishing allocation, the surface water resource attenuation is more affected by factors such as human activities, the accuracy of medium-long term runoff forecasting is lower, and the calculation accuracy of the ecological water replenishing potential of the reservoir is reduced.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention provides a method and a device for predicting reservoir water replenishing potential and electronic equipment, which are used for solving the problem that the calculation accuracy of reservoir ecological water replenishing potential is reduced in the prior art.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting reservoir water replenishment potential, including:
acquiring first flow information of the upstream of a reservoir to be analyzed;
predicting the total flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in an ecological water supplementing scheduling period based on the first flow information;
acquiring the current water storage capacity of the reservoir to be analyzed and the total water consumption of the river basin in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period;
and predicting the water replenishing potential of the reservoir to be analyzed according to the total flow, the current water storage capacity and the total water consumption.
Optionally, the first flow information is used for indicating river base flow of the reservoir to be analyzed and rainfall converging flow of the reservoir to be analyzed.
Optionally, predicting the total flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in the ecological water-replenishing scheduling period based on the first flow information includes:
constructing a river base flow prediction model and a rainfall confluence prediction model according to the first flow information;
obtaining river base flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period according to the river base flow prediction model, and obtaining rainfall converging flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period according to the rainfall converging flow prediction model;
and determining the total flow based on the river base flow and the rainfall sink flow.
Optionally, the constructing a river base flow prediction model according to the first flow information includes:
obtaining the underground water level of the reservoir to be analyzed in a first period, the average river base flow month by month in the second period and the river base flow in a third period, and constructing the river base flow prediction model;
and constructing the river base flow prediction model according to the ground water level in the first period, the river base flow in the second period and the river base flow in the third period.
Optionally, the constructing a rainfall sink flow prediction model according to the first flow information includes:
acquiring rainfall and rainfall converging rate of the reservoir to be analyzed in a third period;
and constructing the rainfall converging quantity prediction model according to the rainfall in the third period and the rainfall converging quantity.
Optionally, the total water consumption includes:
at least one of the agricultural irrigation water consumption, the agricultural consumption and the industrial and domestic water consumption of the reservoir to be analyzed.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a device for predicting a water replenishing potential of a reservoir, including:
the first acquisition module is used for acquiring first flow information of the upstream of the reservoir to be analyzed;
the first prediction module is used for predicting the total flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period based on the first flow information;
the second acquisition module is used for acquiring the current water storage capacity of the reservoir to be analyzed and the total water consumption of the river basin in the ecological water replenishing scheduling period;
and the second prediction module is used for predicting the water replenishing potential of the reservoir to be analyzed according to the total flow, the current water storage capacity and the total water consumption.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device, including a transceiver, a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, where the steps in the method for predicting reservoir water replenishment potential according to the first aspect are implemented when the processor executes the computer program.
According to the technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the invention, the method for predicting the water replenishing potential of the reservoir predicts the total flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in the ecological water replenishing scheduling period based on the first flow information of the upstream of the reservoir to be analyzed, predicts the water replenishing potential of the reservoir to be analyzed according to the total flow, the current water storage capacity and the total water consumption of the reservoir to be analyzed, and can improve the calculation accuracy of the ecological water replenishing potential of the reservoir.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings that are needed in the description of the embodiments of the present invention will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for predicting reservoir water replenishing potential provided by an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a training process of a river-based flow prediction model of a prediction method for reservoir water replenishing potential provided by the embodiment of the invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a prediction device for reservoir water replenishing potential.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made clearly and fully with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which it is evident that the embodiments described are some, but not all embodiments of the invention. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
The method aims at solving the problems that in the existing ecological water replenishing allocation, the surface water resource attenuation is more affected by factors such as human activities, the accuracy of medium-long term runoff forecasting is lower, and the calculation accuracy of the ecological water replenishing potential of the reservoir is reduced. The prediction method, the prediction device and the electronic equipment for the reservoir water replenishing potential are provided, so that the reservoir in the dead water season can be predicted in advance, and the water quantity for ecologically replenishing water to the river and the lake in the river basin can be scheduled through the reservoir after necessary urban water supply and agricultural water supply are met, and therefore effective technical support is provided for water resource allocation of the whole area.
Referring to fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting water replenishing potential of a reservoir, including:
s101: first flow information upstream of a reservoir to be analyzed is obtained.
In embodiments of the invention, upstream of the reservoir refers to the basin into the reservoir and downstream of the reservoir refers to the basin below the reservoir dam. The first flow information refers to the natural runoff of the reservoir, i.e., the measured runoff plus the amount of water utilized above the measured section (minus the regression portion). The ecological water replenishing scheduling refers to scheduling water of a certain water source to another water-deficient area. In addition, when it is worth explaining, the future water replenishing potential of the reservoir is predicted in the present embodiment, so the prediction analysis time is taken as the current time for forecasting, the ecological water replenishing schedule period is referred to as the future ecological water replenishing schedule period, and the current time is the starting time of the future ecological water replenishing schedule period.
S102: and predicting the total flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period based on the first flow information.
Specifically, a river base flow prediction model and a rainfall confluence prediction model are first constructed according to the first flow information. In this embodiment, the first flow information refers to natural runoff information of the reservoir to be analyzed, and is used to indicate river base flow of the reservoir to be analyzed and rainfall converging flow of the reservoir to be analyzed.
In the present embodiment, an overcladding line of each flood process line water-withdrawal section in the daily natural runoff process line is drawn. Flood process lines refer to flow process lines during a certain heavy or heavy rain. And fitting the outer envelope with the water-withdrawal sections of the flood process lines to determine the inflection points of the water-withdrawal sections of the flood process lines. From the rising point of each flood process line to the inflection point of the water withdrawal section of the same flood process line, a slope line is formed, the part above the slope line is the rainfall converging flow generated by rainfall, and the rest part is the river base flow generated by underground water. From this, it is clear that the river-based flow of the reservoir is generated by groundwater, and the rainfall aggregate of the reservoir is generated by rainfall.
In practice, the river base flow of the reservoir at a future time is affected by the groundwater level in the basin and the earlier river base flow. In this embodiment, the early period refers to the first several months in which ecological water regulation is required. The specific time depends on the actual situation, and is not limited here.
Therefore, it is necessary to construct a river base flow prediction model from the groundwater in the historic period and the historic river base flow. When a river base flow prediction model is constructed, the method comprises the following steps:
and obtaining the ground water level of the reservoir to be analyzed in the first period, the river base flow in the second period and the river base flow in the third period.
And constructing a river base flow prediction model according to the ground water level in the first period, the month-by-month average river base flow in the second period and the river base flow in the third period.
Understandably, assuming that the future scheduling period is 10-12 months of the present year, and the current forecast time is 10 month 1 of the present year, the input variables for calibrating the forecast model parameters, namely the groundwater level in the first period refers to a groundwater level sequence of 10 months 1 days of several years before the present year; month-wise average river base flow in the second period refers to month-wise values before 10 months and 1 day a few years before this year, for example, average river base flow values of 7 months, 8 months, and 9 months before 50 years; river base flow in the third period refers to the contemporaneous month of the ecological water replenishment period several years before this year, e.g., 10-12 months of the first 50 years.
It should be noted that, here, the specific time is only illustrated by way of example, and the specific time of the ecological water-replenishing period is not limited. As an alternative embodiment, in other possible examples, the specific month of the ecological water-replenishment period may also be determined according to the actual situation.
In this embodiment, a hyperbolic tangent function is used as an activation function of neurons of a river base flow prediction model to predict a river base flow in a future ecological water replenishment schedule period. If the square correlation coefficient between the predicted value and the actual value of the predicted variable is greater than a preset threshold, the model construction is considered successful. In this embodiment, the preset threshold is 0.8.
Specifically, referring to fig. 2, in the process of constructing the river base flow prediction model, it is assumed that the number of variables of the input layer of the river base flow prediction model is m, the number of neurons of the hidden layer is n, and the output layer has only 1 node. The functional relation of the time t network output is as follows:
wherein Y (t) is network output and represents river base flow of the upstream reservoir in the future ecological water replenishing scheduling period, f 2 () Is the activation function of the output layer neurons, f 1,j () Refers to the activation function, r, of hidden layer neurons j and output layer neurons j Is the connection weight value between the hidden layer neuron j and the output layer neuron, n is the number of hidden layer variables, b 2 Is the bias of the output layer neurons, E j Is an intermediate variable, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein Y (t-1) is a network output with a time delay, m is the number of input layer variables, b 1,j Refers to the bias, w, of hidden layer neurons j i,j Is the connection weight value, v, between the input layer variable i and hidden layer neuron j j Is the connection weight value before Y (t-1) is fed back to the hidden layer neuron j, X i (t) is normalized data of the variables, and the calculation formula is as follows:
in the method, in the process of the invention,consists of the groundwater level of a basin groundwater monitoring station at the moment t and the average river base flow rate month by month before the moment t, wherein i=1, … and m. />Is->Minimum value of sequence,/->Is->Maximum value of the sequence.
In addition, in the embodiment of the invention, the rainfall converging flow of the reservoir is generated by rainfall. In practice, the rainfall confluence of the reservoir at the future moment is influenced by the average forecast rainfall of the flow field range in the future ecological water-replenishing scheduling period. The rainfall convergence quantity prediction model is constructed by the following steps:
acquiring rainfall and rainfall converging rate of the reservoir to be analyzed in a third period;
and constructing a rainfall converging quantity prediction model according to the rainfall and the rainfall converging quantity in the third period.
In this embodiment, in order to accurately analyze the correlation between the rainfall and the rainfall confluence in the third period, the method includes the steps of:
firstly, acquiring a contemporaneous historical rainfall series P of an ecological water supplementing scheduling period t And historical rainfall confluence quantity series H t The double accumulated correlation diagram is an existing open diagram and can be directly obtained from a correlation knowledge website. Further, the year of the inflection point of the obvious change of the relation between the rainfall series and the rainfall confluence series is determined, and the historical rainfall series and the historical rainfall confluence series are divided into a front year section and a rear year section by taking the year as a dividing point.
And analyzing the relationship between the rainfall series and the rainfall confluence series in the previous and the next years, and specifically, drawing a relationship curve according to the analysis result to more intuitively find the relationship between the rainfall series and the rainfall confluence series. In this embodiment, this relationship is denoted as a P-H relationship. Selecting one rainfall value, respectively finding two corresponding confluence values from two P-H relation curves, and recording the confluence values as H Front part And H Rear part (S) The aggregate flow correction coefficient ψ is calculated as follows:
ψ＝H rear part (S) /H Front part 。
And (5) checking the values psi of the rainfall at different quantity levels, and drawing a P-psi relation curve. Then, for the rainfall of each year of the previous year, a correction coefficient is searched from the P-psi relation curve, and based on the correction coefficient and the confluence of the year, the corrected confluence value can be obtained, so as to obtain a corrected rainfall surface confluence value seriesRainfall series P for further plotting historical period t And modified rainfall surface confluence series +.>A relationship between the two. Finally, according to the average forecast rainfall of the inflow region range in the future ecological water-replenishing scheduling period, the water-replenishing scheduling period is started from ∈>Corresponding confluence values +/can be quickly checked on the relationship curve>And taking the confluence value as a ground surface confluence value predicted value generated by rainfall in a future ecological water-replenishing scheduling period.
In the embodiment, the river base flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period is obtained according to the constructed river base flow prediction model, and the rainfall converging flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period is obtained according to the rainfall converging flow prediction model; the total flow is then determined based on the river base flow and the aggregate amount of rainfall. The prediction of river base flow and rainfall sink flow in the future ecological water-supplementing scheduling period can be accurately and rapidly realized.
And S103, acquiring the current water storage capacity of the reservoir to be analyzed and the total water consumption of the river basin in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period.
Specifically, the current water storage capacity of the reservoir to be analyzed can be obtained through actual measurement or searching of related records. The current water storage capacity refers to the water storage capacity at the current prediction time.
When the total water consumption of the basin in the ecological water-replenishing scheduling period is obtained, the consumption of the surface water of the basin of the reservoir to be analyzed needs to be considered, and in practice, the consumption mainly comprises the consumption of agricultural irrigation, industrial and domestic water in the basin and the like. The relation between the agricultural irrigation water consumption and the forecast rainfall in the river basin range of the future ecological water supplement scheduling period is obvious. The main expression is that the more abundant the rainfall is, the smaller the agricultural irrigation water consumption is; the higher the rainfall, the greater the agricultural irrigation water consumption. Therefore, the per mu irrigation quota of the main crops in the river basin is determined according to the forecast rainfall in the river basin range of the future ecological water supplement scheduling period, and then the agricultural irrigation water consumption and loss in the future ecological water supplement scheduling period are forecasted according to the irrigation area. The total water consumption of the river basin in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period can be more accurately obtained. In addition, the consumption of industrial and domestic water is predicted according to the rating method. The industrial quota is obtained by the existing conventional prediction method, and is not described in detail herein.
In order to further improve the accuracy of the prediction method of the reservoir water replenishing potential, in the embodiment, the cross-basin introduced water quantity and the cross-basin introduced water quantity in the cross-basin scheduling are also considered. In this embodiment, the amount of water introduced and drawn across the river basin is predicted according to the scheduling rules of hydraulic engineering. Here, description will be omitted.
S104, predicting the water replenishing potential of the reservoir to be analyzed according to the total flow, the current water storage capacity and the total water consumption.
Specifically, the formula adopted for predicting the water replenishing potential Q of the reservoir to be analyzed in the present embodiment is as follows:
wherein,represents river base flow in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period>Represents rainfall converging amount in the ecological water-supplementing scheduling period, L represents total water consumption in the ecological water-supplementing scheduling period, and B 1 Represents the introduction of water across the basin, B 2 Indicating the amount of water drawn across the basin, R indicating the current water storage capacity of the reservoir to be analyzed.
Referring to fig. 3, the embodiment of the invention further provides a device for predicting the water replenishing potential of a reservoir, which comprises:
a first obtaining module 201, configured to obtain first flow information of an upstream of a reservoir to be analyzed;
a first prediction module 202, configured to predict a total flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in the ecological water-replenishing scheduling period based on the first flow information;
a second obtaining module 203, configured to obtain a current water storage amount of the reservoir to be analyzed and a total water consumption of the basin during the ecological water replenishment scheduling period;
the second prediction module 204 is configured to predict the water replenishing potential of the reservoir to be analyzed according to the total flow, the current water storage amount and the total water consumption.
The first prediction module 202 comprises a river base flow prediction module and a rainfall confluence prediction module, wherein the river base flow prediction module is used for obtaining the ground water level of the reservoir to be analyzed in a first period, the average river base flow month by month in a second period and the river base flow in the third period;
and constructing the river base flow prediction model according to the ground water level in the first period, the average river base flow month by month in the second period and the river base flow in the third period.
The rainfall confluence prediction module is used for obtaining rainfall and rainfall confluence of the reservoir to be analyzed in a third period;
and constructing the rainfall converging quantity prediction model according to the rainfall in the third period and the rainfall converging quantity.
According to the reservoir water replenishing potential prediction device provided by the embodiment of the invention, the total flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in the ecological water replenishing scheduling period is predicted based on the first flow information of the upstream of the reservoir to be analyzed, and the water replenishing potential of the reservoir to be analyzed is predicted according to the total flow, the current water storage capacity and the total water consumption of the reservoir to be analyzed, so that the calculation accuracy of the reservoir ecological water replenishing potential can be improved.
The embodiment of the invention also provides an electronic device, which comprises a transceiver, a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and capable of running on the processor, wherein the steps in the method for predicting the reservoir water replenishing potential according to the first aspect are realized when the processor executes the computer program, and the same technical effects can be achieved, so that repetition is avoided, and the description is omitted. The electronic equipment is a computer, a tablet personal computer, a mobile terminal and the like.
The foregoing is merely illustrative embodiments of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art can easily think about variations or substitutions within the technical scope of the present invention, and the invention should be covered. Therefore, the protection scope of the invention is subject to the protection scope of the claims.
It should be noted that, in this document, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising one … …" does not exclude the presence of other like elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
From the above description of the embodiments, it will be clear to those skilled in the art that the above-described embodiment method may be implemented by means of software plus a necessary general hardware platform, but of course may also be implemented by means of hardware, but in many cases the former is a preferred embodiment. Based on such understanding, the technical solution of the present invention may be embodied essentially or in a part contributing to the prior art in the form of a software product stored in a storage medium (e.g. ROM/RAM, magnetic disk, optical disk) comprising instructions for causing a terminal (which may be a mobile phone, a computer, a server, an air conditioner, or a network device, etc.) to perform the method according to the embodiments of the present invention.
The embodiments of the present invention have been described above with reference to the accompanying drawings, but the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, which are merely illustrative and not restrictive, and many forms may be made by those having ordinary skill in the art without departing from the spirit of the present invention and the scope of the claims, which are to be protected by the present invention.
Claims (4)
1. The prediction method for the reservoir water replenishing potential is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
acquiring first flow information of the upstream of a reservoir to be analyzed;
predicting the total flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in an ecological water supplementing scheduling period based on the first flow information, wherein the first flow information is used for indicating the river base flow of the reservoir to be analyzed and the rainfall converging flow of the reservoir to be analyzed;
acquiring the current water storage capacity of the reservoir to be analyzed and the total water consumption of the river basin in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period;
predicting the water replenishing potential of the reservoir to be analyzed according to the total flow, the current water storage capacity and the total water consumption;
the predicting the total flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period based on the first flow information comprises the following steps:
constructing a river base flow prediction model and a rainfall confluence prediction model according to the first flow information;
obtaining river base flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period according to the river base flow prediction model, and obtaining rainfall converging flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period according to the rainfall converging flow prediction model;
determining the total flow based on the river base flow and the rainfall sink flow,
the constructing a river base flow prediction model according to the first flow information comprises the following steps:
acquiring the ground water level of the reservoir to be analyzed in a first period, the average river base flow month by month in a second period and the river base flow in a third period;
constructing a river base flow prediction model according to the ground water level in the first period, the average river base flow month by month in the second period and the river base flow in the third period;
the constructing a rainfall converging flow prediction model according to the first flow information comprises the following steps:
acquiring rainfall and rainfall converging rate of the reservoir to be analyzed in a third period;
and constructing the rainfall converging quantity prediction model according to the rainfall in the third period and the rainfall converging quantity.
2. A method of predicting the potential to replenish water in a reservoir in accordance with claim 1, wherein the total water consumption comprises:
at least one of the agricultural irrigation water consumption, the agricultural consumption and the industrial and domestic water consumption of the reservoir to be analyzed.
3. A prediction device for reservoir moisturizing potential, comprising:
the first acquisition module is used for acquiring first flow information of the upstream of the reservoir to be analyzed;
the first prediction module is used for predicting the total flow of the reservoir to be analyzed in the ecological water supplementing scheduling period based on the first flow information, wherein the first flow information is used for indicating the river base flow of the reservoir to be analyzed and the rainfall converging flow of the reservoir to be analyzed;
the second acquisition module is used for acquiring the current water storage capacity of the reservoir to be analyzed and the total water consumption of the river basin in the ecological water replenishing scheduling period;
the second prediction module is used for predicting the water replenishing potential of the reservoir to be analyzed according to the total flow, the current water storage capacity and the total water consumption;
the first prediction module comprises a river base flow prediction module and a rainfall confluence prediction module, wherein the river base flow prediction module is used for acquiring the underground water level of the reservoir to be analyzed in a first period, the average river base flow month by month in a second period and the river base flow in a third period;
constructing a river base flow prediction model according to the ground water level in the first period, the average river base flow month by month in the second period and the river base flow in the third period;
the rainfall confluence prediction module is used for obtaining rainfall and rainfall confluence of the reservoir to be analyzed in a third period;
and constructing the rainfall converging quantity prediction model according to the rainfall in the third period and the rainfall converging quantity.
4. An electronic device comprising a transceiver, a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that the processor, when executing the computer program, implements the steps of the method of predicting reservoir moisturizing potential according to any one of claims 1-2.
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