CN115409340A - Short-period drought and waterlogging rush index construction method and system - Google Patents

Short-period drought and waterlogging rush index construction method and system Download PDF

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CN115409340A
CN115409340A CN202210991925.1A CN202210991925A CN115409340A CN 115409340 A CN115409340 A CN 115409340A CN 202210991925 A CN202210991925 A CN 202210991925A CN 115409340 A CN115409340 A CN 115409340A
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waterlogging
turning
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雷晓平
宋小燕
刘文彬
孙文义
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Northwest A&F University
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources of CAS
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Abstract

The invention discloses a short-period drought and flood rush index construction method and a short-period drought and flood rush index construction system, which belong to the technical field of natural disaster occurrence risk assessment and comprise the following steps: acquiring meteorological data in i continuous time periods, and carrying out standardization processing on the meteorological data; calculating drought and waterlogging emergency strength, absolute drought and waterlogging strength, calculation factors of drought and waterlogging emergency identification calculation parameters and drought and waterlogging emergency identification calculation parameters; calculating a drought and flood turning incident identification formula; and calculating the drought and waterlogging turning index. The influence of drought and waterlogging standards on drought and waterlogging turning events is fully considered, the problems of missed judgment of drought and waterlogging turning times in short periods and wrong judgment of non-drought and waterlogging turning events in the prior art are solved, and the deviation and incompleteness of drought and waterlogging turning indexes on severity judgment in short periods in the prior art are corrected; the threshold value of the short-period drought and waterlogging rush turning event is unified, and the short-period drought and waterlogging rush turning event can be accurately identified under the condition of changing the threshold value of the drought and waterlogging rush turning or the drought threshold value.

Description

Short-period drought and waterlogging rush index construction method and system
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of natural disaster occurrence risk assessment, in particular to a short-period drought and waterlogging turning index construction method and system.
Background
Drought and flood sudden turning refers to a natural phenomenon that when a certain area or a certain river area is subjected to drought for a long time, concentrated strong rainfall is suddenly encountered to cause mountain torrents, river water is steeply risen, and the entering of the passenger water and the internal water are difficult to discharge in time. Because drought and waterlogging are sudden, the people feel illusion due to early drought, and paralysis thoughts of different degrees exist, so that casualties and great economic loss are easily caused.
Extreme hydrological events such as drought and flooding coexist under the influence of factors such as global climate warming and human activities, and the occurrence frequency and intensity of the extreme hydrological events tend to increase. The existing research shows that the drought and flood fast turn is more prominent in the Yangtze river basin, the Huai river basin, the southwest and the south China, and the like, and the method gradually becomes a new characteristic and a new trend of the drought and flood disasters of China.
At present, the drought and waterlogging rush-turn index is calculated, generally based on a certain time scale (such as 1-2 months) to standardize a rainfall or runoff sequence, and a product formula of difference values and absolute value sums between adjacent ones is adopted to present the strength item of drought and waterlogging rush-turn and the strength item of drought and waterlogging. By setting a weight term (and a negative exponential function of the absolute value of the sum), 2 events with same drought or same waterlogging with larger difference are prevented from being misjudged as drought, waterlogging and jerking. The existing short-period drought-waterlogging and sudden-turning index cannot take drought and waterlogging standards into consideration in the calculation process, so the following defects exist in the prior art: (1) The drought and flood jerk event is identified through the existing short-period drought and flood jerk index, and the short-period drought and flood jerk event is misjudged and the non-drought and flood jerk event is misjudged to a certain extent; (2) The existing research on the drought and waterlogging jerk in a short period does not obtain a uniform critical threshold value for the drought and waterlogging jerk event; (3) The existing short-period drought and waterlogging sudden-turn index shows deviation and incompetence on the aspect of reflecting the severity degree of drought and waterlogging sudden-turn events.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the invention provides a short-period drought and flood turning index construction method and system, which unifies the short-period drought and flood turning event threshold, corrects the deviation and incompleteness of the short-period drought and flood turning index on severity judgment in the prior art, and solves the problems of missed judgment and wrong judgment of non-drought and flood turning events in the short-period drought and flood turning time in the prior art.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides a short-period drought and flood sudden-turn index construction method, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring meteorological data in i continuous time periods, and carrying out standardization processing on the meteorological data;
calculating drought and flood jerking strength, absolute drought and flood strength, calculation factors of drought and flood jerking event identification calculation parameters and drought and flood jerking event identification calculation parameters based on the weather data after the standardized processing;
acquiring a drought and waterlogging rush turning event identification formula by utilizing the drought and waterlogging rush turning intensity, the absolute drought and waterlogging intensity and the drought and waterlogging rush turning event identification calculation parameters;
and calculating the drought and waterlogging rush turning index based on the drought and waterlogging rush turning event identification formula.
Preferably, the meteorological data is precipitation data; the weather data after the standardization treatment is a standardized precipitation index; the unit of the time period is a month.
Preferably, the calculation formula of the drought and flood sudden turning strength is as follows:
D＝S i+1 -S i ；
preferably, the absolute drought and flood intensity calculation formula is as follows:
E＝|S i+1 |+|S i |；
preferably, the calculation factor calculation formula of the drought and flood sudden turn event identification calculation parameter is as follows:
Figure BDA0003802833250000021
preferably, the calculation formula of the drought and flood sudden turning event identification and calculation parameters is as follows:
I 1 ＝F×min(|S i+1 |,|S i |)；
wherein D is the drought and waterlogging emergency strength, E is the absolute drought and waterlogging strength, F is a calculation factor for identifying and calculating parameters of drought and waterlogging emergency, and I 1 Identifying and calculating parameters for drought and flood sudden turning events, S i Normalized precipitation index in month i, S i+1 Normalized precipitation index for month i + 1.
Preferably, the drought and flood sudden turning event identification formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003802833250000022
wherein, I' is a formula for identifying drought and flood sudden turning events, D is the strength of drought and flood sudden turning, E is the absolute strength of drought and flood, and I 1 Identifying and calculating parameters for drought and waterlogging sudden turn events, S i Normalized precipitation index in month i, S i+1 Normalized precipitation index for month i + 1.
Preferably, the calculation formula of the drought and waterlogging sudden turning index is as follows:
Figure BDA0003802833250000031
wherein SDWAI is drought and waterlogging rush turn index, sign is intercept sign function, 0.5 is drought threshold value, wherein I' is drought and waterlogging rush turn event identification formula, D is drought and waterlogging rush turn intensity, E is absolute drought and waterlogging intensity, and I 1 Identifying and calculating parameters for drought and waterlogging sudden turn events, S i Normalized precipitation index in month i, S i+1 Normalized precipitation index for month i + 1.
The invention provides a short-period drought and waterlogging and turning index construction system, which comprises a data acquisition module, a data processing module and a calculation module; the data acquisition module is connected with the data processing module; the data processing module is connected with the computing module;
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring meteorological data;
the data processing module is used for carrying out standardized processing on the collected meteorological data;
the calculation module is used for calculating drought and waterlogging emergency strength, absolute drought and waterlogging strength, calculation factors of drought and waterlogging emergency identification calculation parameters, a drought and waterlogging emergency identification formula and a drought and waterlogging emergency index.
Preferably, the data collected by the data collection module is precipitation data; the data processing module is used for converting the data acquired by the data acquisition module into a standardized precipitation index.
Preferably, the calculation module comprises a first calculation unit, a second calculation unit and a third calculation unit;
the first calculation unit is used for calculating the drought and waterlogging jerk strength and the absolute drought and waterlogging strength;
the second calculation unit is used for calculating a calculation factor of the drought/waterlogging emergency identification calculation parameter according to the calculation result of the first calculation unit;
the third calculating unit is used for calculating the drought/waterlogging and sudden turning event identification calculating parameters according to the calculating results of the first calculating unit and the second calculating unit.
Preferably, the calculation module further includes a fourth calculation unit, configured to calculate the drought/flood and turning emergency identification formula.
Preferably, the calculation module comprises a fifth calculation unit for calculating the drought-waterlogging and jerking index.
According to the technical scheme, compared with the prior art, the method and the system for constructing the short-period drought and waterlogging emergency turn index fully consider the influence of drought and waterlogging standards on drought and waterlogging emergency turn events in the construction process, solve the problems of missing judgment of the short-period drought and waterlogging emergency turn time and misjudgment of non-drought and waterlogging emergency turn events in the prior art, and correct the deviation and incompleteness of the short-period drought and waterlogging emergency turn index on severity judgment in the prior art; the threshold value of the short-period drought and waterlogging rush turning event is unified, and the short-period drought and waterlogging rush turning event can be accurately identified under the condition of changing the threshold value of the drought and waterlogging rush turning or the drought threshold value.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the provided drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the method of the present invention.
Fig. 2 (a) shows the short-period drought-waterlogging and sudden-change event missing and wrong judgment conditions based on the SDFAI to change the drought-waterlogging and sudden-change threshold; (b) The short-period drought and flood sudden turning event missed judgment and wrong judgment conditions based on the SDFAI change experience coefficient are obtained; (c) Short-period drought and flood sudden-turn event missed-judgment and wrong-judgment conditions for changing drought threshold values based on the SDWAI.
FIG. 3 (a) is a drought index profile corresponding to a short-term drought-flood turn-around event identified by SDWAI; (b) The drought index distribution condition corresponding to the short-period drought-waterlogging and sudden-turning event identified by the SDFAI under the default condition is adopted.
Fig. 4 (a) shows the overall change of SDWAI index value; and (b) is the overall change of the SDFAI index.
FIG. 5 is a graph showing the comparison between SDWAI and SDFAI index values reflecting the severity of the periodic drought and waterlogging emergency.
Fig. 6 is a block diagram of the system of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Example 1
As shown in FIG. 1, the embodiment of the invention discloses a short-period drought and flood sudden-turn index construction method, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring meteorological data in i continuous time periods, and carrying out standardization processing on the meteorological data;
calculating drought and waterlogging emergency strength, absolute drought and waterlogging strength, a calculation factor of drought and waterlogging emergency identification calculation parameters and a drought and waterlogging emergency identification calculation parameter based on the weather data after the standardization processing;
obtaining a drought and waterlogging jerky event identification formula by utilizing the drought and waterlogging jerky intensity, absolute drought and waterlogging intensity and drought and waterlogging jerky event identification and calculation parameters;
and calculating the drought and waterlogging rush turning index based on the drought and waterlogging rush turning event identification formula.
Specifically, the meteorological data in the invention is precipitation data; the weather data after the standardization treatment is a standardized precipitation index; the unit of the time period is month.
Specifically, the calculation formula of the drought and flood sudden turning strength is as follows:
D＝S i+1 -S i ；
specifically, the absolute drought and flood intensity calculation formula in the invention is as follows:
E＝|S i+1 |+|S i |；
specifically, the calculation factor calculation formula of the drought and flood sudden turning event identification calculation parameter in the invention is as follows:
Figure BDA0003802833250000051
specifically, the calculation formula of the drought and flood sudden turning event identification and calculation parameters in the invention is as follows:
I 1 ＝F×min(|S i+1 |,|S i |)；
wherein D is the drought and waterlogging turning strength, E is the absolute drought and waterlogging strength, F is a calculation factor of the drought and waterlogging turning event identification calculation parameter, and I 1 Identifying and calculating parameters for drought and flood sudden turning events, S i Normalized precipitation index in month i, S i+1 Normalized precipitation index for month i + 1.
Specifically, the identification formula of the drought and flood sudden turn event in the invention is as follows:
Figure BDA0003802833250000061
the drought and waterlogging rush turning event identification formula can identify the event with the standardized rainfall indexes of two adjacent months and the absolute values of the standard rainfall indexes of the two adjacent months as the drought and waterlogging rush turning event (I' is more than 1), but the drought and waterlogging situations of the two adjacent months of the drought and waterlogging rush turning event cannot be comprehensively reflected, so the formula only has an identification function and cannot judge the serious condition of the drought and waterlogging rush turning event. Therefore, the invention corrects the formula to finally obtain the SDWAI expression.
Specifically, the calculation formula of the drought and waterlogging rush turning index is as follows:
Figure BDA0003802833250000062
wherein SDWAI is a drought and waterlogging jerk index, sign is an intercepted sign function, 0.5 is a drought threshold, and the drought and waterlogging jerk threshold is always 1. For drought and flood sudden turn events, the absolute value of SDWAI is more than or equal to 1, and the absolute value of SDWAI is larger, which indicates that the difference between drought and flood before and after the sudden turn event is more obvious and the drought and flood sudden turn event is more serious.
As shown in fig. 2 (a) and 2 (b), the conventional short-period drought-waterlogging and jerk index cannot overcome the problems of missed judgment and wrong judgment of the short-period drought-waterlogging and jerk event no matter the drought-waterlogging and jerk threshold is changed or an experience coefficient is changed under the condition that the drought threshold is controlled to be unchanged. In particular, as shown in fig. 2 (b), it is demonstrated that it is not scientific to use the default parameter values of SDFAI (empirical coefficient of 3.2, drought/flood racing threshold of 1) for the identification of drought/flood racing events. In contrast, as shown in fig. 1 (c) and fig. 2 (b), the short-period drought-waterlogging and jerk index constructed by the invention can accurately identify the short-period drought-waterlogging and jerk event after the drought threshold is changed.
As shown in fig. 3 (a) and 3 (b), compared with SDWAI, the absolute value of SDFAI corresponding to the outstanding short-period drought-flood and jerk event is much larger due to the SDFAI formula structure. In addition, it can be easily found from fig. 4 that when the difference between the drought and flood levels of month i and month i +1 is small, the absolute value of SDFAI of the event is particularly large; otherwise, it is very small. In other words, for a short period drought and flood racing event identified by the primary index, a larger absolute value of SDFAI does not necessarily indicate that the event is more serious, while SDWAI better reflects the severity of the drought and flood racing event.
Example 2
As shown in FIG. 6, the embodiment of the invention discloses a short-period drought and flood jerk index construction system, which comprises a data acquisition module, a data processing module and a calculation module; the data acquisition module is connected with the data processing module; the data processing module is connected with the computing module;
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring meteorological data;
the data processing module is used for carrying out standardized processing on the collected meteorological data;
the calculation module is used for calculating the drought and waterlogging jerk strength, the absolute drought and waterlogging strength, the calculation factors of the drought and waterlogging jerk event identification calculation parameters, the drought and waterlogging jerk event identification formula and the drought and waterlogging jerk index.
The data collected by the data collection module are precipitation data; the data processing module is used for converting the data acquired by the data acquisition module into a standardized precipitation index.
The calculation module comprises a first calculation unit, a second calculation unit and a third calculation unit;
the first calculation unit is used for calculating the drought and waterlogging jerk strength and the absolute drought and waterlogging strength;
the second calculation unit is used for calculating calculation factors of the drought and waterlogging emergency identification calculation parameters according to the calculation result of the first calculation unit;
the third calculating unit is used for calculating the drought and flood turning incident identification calculating parameters according to the calculating results of the first calculating unit and the second calculating unit.
The calculation module further comprises a fourth calculation unit for calculating the identification formula of the drought/flood sudden-turn event.
The calculation module comprises a fifth calculation unit for calculating the drought-waterlogging and sudden-turning index.
In the present specification, the embodiments are described in a progressive manner, each embodiment focuses on differences from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other. The device disclosed by the embodiment corresponds to the method disclosed by the embodiment, so that the description is simple, and the relevant points can be referred to the method part for description.
The previous description of the disclosed embodiments is provided to enable any person skilled in the art to make or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention. Thus, the present invention is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.

Claims (10)

1. A short-period drought and flood sudden-turn index construction method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring meteorological data in i continuous time periods, and carrying out standardization processing on the meteorological data;
calculating drought and waterlogging emergency strength, absolute drought and waterlogging strength, a calculation factor of drought and waterlogging emergency identification calculation parameters and a drought and waterlogging emergency identification calculation parameter based on the weather data after the standardization processing;
acquiring a drought and waterlogging rush turning event identification formula by utilizing the drought and waterlogging rush turning intensity, the absolute drought and waterlogging intensity and the drought and waterlogging rush turning event identification calculation parameters;
and calculating the drought and waterlogging rush turning index based on the drought and waterlogging rush turning event identification formula.
2. The method for constructing the short-period drought-waterlogging rush-turn index as claimed in claim 1, wherein the meteorological data is precipitation data; the weather data after the standardization treatment is a standardized precipitation index; the unit of the time period is a month.
3. The method for constructing the short-period drought-waterlogging and turning-emergency index according to claim 1, wherein the calculation formula of the drought-waterlogging and turning-emergency intensity is as follows:
D＝S i+1 -S i ；
the absolute drought and flood intensity calculation formula is as follows:
E＝|S i+1 |+|S i |；
the calculation factor calculation formula of the drought and flood sudden turn event identification calculation parameter is as follows:
Figure FDA0003802833240000011
the calculation formula of the identification and calculation parameters of the drought and flood sudden turn events is as follows:
I 1 ＝F×min(|S i+1 |,|S i |)；
wherein D is the drought and waterlogging rush turning strength, E is the absolute drought and waterlogging strength, F is a calculation factor of the drought and waterlogging rush turning event identification calculation parameter, I1 is the drought and waterlogging rush turning event identification calculation parameter, si is the standardized precipitation index of the ith month, and Si +1 is the standardized precipitation index of the ith +1 month.
4. The method for constructing the short-period drought-waterlogging and turning-emergency index according to claim 1, wherein the drought-waterlogging and turning-emergency event identification formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0003802833240000012
wherein, I' is a drought and waterlogging rush turning event identification formula, D is drought and waterlogging rush turning intensity, E is absolute drought and waterlogging intensity, I 1 Identifying and calculating parameters for drought and waterlogging sudden turn events, S i Normalized precipitation index in month i, S i+1 Normalized precipitation index for month i + 1.
5. The method for constructing the short-period drought-waterlogging and turning-emergency index according to claim 1, wherein the calculation formula of the drought-waterlogging and turning-emergency index is as follows:
Figure FDA0003802833240000021
wherein SDWAI is drought and flood jerk index, sign is intercept sign function, 0.5 is drought threshold, wherein I' is drought and flood jerk event identification formula, D is drought and flood jerk intensity, E is absolute drought and flood intensity, and I 1 Identifying and calculating parameters for drought and waterlogging sudden turn events, S i Normalized precipitation index in month i, S i+1 Normalized precipitation index for month i + 1.
6. A short-period drought and waterlogging turning index construction system is characterized by comprising a data acquisition module, a data processing module and a calculation module; the data acquisition module is connected with the data processing module; the data processing module is connected with the computing module;
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring meteorological data;
the data processing module is used for carrying out standardized processing on the collected meteorological data;
the calculation module is used for calculating drought and waterlogging emergency strength, absolute drought and waterlogging strength, calculation factors of drought and waterlogging emergency identification calculation parameters, a drought and waterlogging emergency identification formula and a drought and waterlogging emergency index.
7. The system for constructing the short-period drought-waterlogging and sharp turn index as claimed in claim 6, wherein the data collected by the data collection module is precipitation data; the data processing module is used for converting the data acquired by the data acquisition module into a standardized precipitation index.
8. The system for constructing the short-period drought and flood jerk index is characterized in that the calculation module comprises a first calculation unit, a second calculation unit and a third calculation unit;
the first calculation unit is used for calculating the drought and waterlogging emergency turning strength and the absolute drought and waterlogging strength;
the second calculation unit is used for calculating a calculation factor of the drought/waterlogging emergency identification calculation parameter according to the calculation result of the first calculation unit;
the third calculating unit is used for calculating the drought/waterlogging and sudden turning event identification calculating parameters according to the calculating results of the first calculating unit and the second calculating unit.
9. The system for constructing the short-period drought and flood sharp turn index according to claim 6, wherein the calculation module further comprises a fourth calculation unit for calculating the drought and flood sharp turn event identification formula.
10. The system for constructing the short-period drought-waterlogging and turning-emergency index according to claim 6, wherein the calculation module comprises a fifth calculation unit for calculating the drought-waterlogging and turning-emergency index.
CN202210991925.1A 2022-08-17 2022-08-17 Short-period drought and waterlogging rush index construction method and system Pending CN115409340A (en)

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Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN116227683A (en) * 2023-01-09 2023-06-06 武汉大学 Evaluation method for drought and waterlogging tight interaction effect in easy drought and waterlogging area
CN116955886A (en) * 2023-05-17 2023-10-27 武汉大学 Multi-scale standardized drought and flood emergency index calculation method for strength and speed coupling

Cited By (4)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN116227683A (en) * 2023-01-09 2023-06-06 武汉大学 Evaluation method for drought and waterlogging tight interaction effect in easy drought and waterlogging area
CN116227683B (en) * 2023-01-09 2023-11-17 武汉大学 Evaluation method for drought and waterlogging tight interaction effect in easy drought and waterlogging area
CN116955886A (en) * 2023-05-17 2023-10-27 武汉大学 Multi-scale standardized drought and flood emergency index calculation method for strength and speed coupling
CN116955886B (en) * 2023-05-17 2024-03-26 武汉大学 Multi-scale standardized drought and flood emergency index calculation method for strength and speed coupling

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