CN113988673A - Drought and waterlogging sudden turning evaluation method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a drought and flood sudden turn evaluation method, which comprises the following steps: s1, collecting meteorological hydrological series data in a certain time period; s2, calculating to obtain drought and flood indexes based on the meteorological hydrological series data; s3, calculating to obtain a standardized drought and waterlogging rush turning index by utilizing the drought and waterlogging index; and S4, grading the obtained standardized drought and waterlogging jerk index value according to the drought and waterlogging jerk grading standard. The invention can solve the problems of misjudgment and missed judgment of drought and waterlogging emergency in the prior art, so that the level classification of drought and waterlogging emergency is consistent with the conventional drought and waterlogging level classification in threshold setting and qualitative sense, and the uniformity of a drought and waterlogging evaluation system is facilitated.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to risk assessment of natural disasters, in particular to a drought and waterlogging rush turning assessment method.
Background
Under the influence of factors such as global warming and human activities, extreme hydrological events such as drought and flood disasters coexist, and the frequency and the intensity of the extreme hydrological events tend to increase. The abnormal phenomena of drought and waterlogging mainly comprise drought and waterlogging rush transfer events and drought and waterlogging coexistence formed by drought and waterlogging rush transfer of different scales. The drought-waterlogging and rush turning is generally considered to be the process that two events, namely drought and waterlogging, coexist or alternately occur in a short time, namely the former state is changed rapidly, and the drought-to-waterlogging event and the waterlogging-to-drought-turning event exist. The existing research shows that drought, waterlogging and sudden turning occur more prominently in areas such as Yangtze river basin, Huai river basin, southwest and south China. Has gradually become a new characteristic and a new trend of drought and flood disasters in China. The occurrence of drought and waterlogging sharp turning events not only causes huge economic losses, but also has serious influence on water safety and grain safety, and even directly threatens the life safety of people.
The predecessors construct drought and waterlogging rush turn indexes with different scales by using meteorological hydrological series such as rainfall or runoff, and carry out quantitative evaluation research on drought and waterlogging rush turn phenomena. The prior art comprises a long-period drought and waterlogging rush index LDFAI, a short-period drought and waterlogging rush index SDFAI, a runoff drought and waterlogging rush index RDFAI and a daily scale drought and waterlogging rush index DWAAI.
The conventional drought and waterlogging rush turn index calculation is generally based on a standardized rainfall or runoff series of a certain time scale (such as 1-2 months), and a product formula of a difference value and an absolute value sum of two adjacent values is adopted, so that a drought and waterlogging rush turn intensity item and a drought and waterlogging intensity item can be well presented. And by setting a weight term (a negative exponential function of a sum absolute value), the change of the same drought or same waterlogging event with larger difference is tried to be prevented from being judged as drought and waterlogging rush turn by mistake. However, the computing method is premised on that the original data series adopts 0-1 standardized transformation, 0.5 is used as a boundary value of drought and waterlogging events, and otherwise, the problems of judgment and missed judgment are difficult to avoid. In addition, in the aspect of the base value of the exponential function in the weight term, subjective randomness exists at present. In addition, in drought and flood risk management, drought and flood grading is generally performed by setting a threshold value based on the drought and flood index, for example, chinese patent publication No. CN 111680912A and publication No. 2020.9.18: a drought and flood sudden turn risk assessment method is disclosed, and a probability distribution function is constructed through a threshold value to assess risks. However, in the existing research, when the drought and waterlogging rush turning index is calculated by using the method and further graded, the threshold setting is related to a standardized transformation mode and the base value of a weight term index function, so that different researchers have different classification standards and are inconsistent with the common drought and waterlogging grade grading, and the unified cognition in drought and waterlogging evaluation management is not facilitated.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a drought and waterlogging rush turn assessment method which can solve the problems of misjudgment and misjudgment of drought and waterlogging rush turns in the prior art, so that the level classification of the drought and waterlogging rush turns and the conventional drought and waterlogging level classification are consistent in threshold setting and qualitative, and the unity of a drought and waterlogging assessment system is facilitated.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a drought and waterlogging sudden turning assessment method comprises the following steps:
s1, collecting meteorological hydrological series data in a certain time period;
s2, calculating to obtain drought and flood indexes based on the meteorological hydrological series data;
s3, calculating to obtain a standardized drought and waterlogging rush turning index by utilizing the drought and waterlogging index;
and S4, grading the obtained standardized drought and waterlogging jerk index value according to the drought and waterlogging jerk grading standard.
Further, the meteorological hydrological series data in step S1 includes precipitation series data or runoff series data.
Further, in step S2, when calculating based on the precipitation series data, the obtained drought-waterlogging index is the standardized precipitation index SPI; when the calculation is carried out based on the runoff series data, the obtained drought-waterlogging index is the standardized runoff index SSI.
Further, the process of calculating the drought-waterlogging index in step S2 is as follows:
if precipitation or runoff in a certain period is x, x >0, the probability density function of the distribution of gamma is as follows:
wherein β, γ are the scale and shape parameters, β >0, γ >0, respectively;
precipitation or runoff x for a period of time0The random variable x is less than x0The event probability of a time is:
the probability of an event when precipitation or runoff is 0 is as follows:
in the formula: n is the number of samples of precipitation or runoff 0, and m is the total sample;
and (3) carrying out standardized transformation on the probability of the distribution of the gamma:
in the formula: z is drought and waterlogging index; c. C0＝2.515517、c1＝0.802853、c2＝0.010328；d1＝1.432788、d2＝0.189269、d30.001308; f is the event probability, when F is less than or equal to 0.5,
-1; when F is present>At the time of 0.5, the temperature of the mixture,
S＝1。
further, β and γ are obtained by a maximum likelihood estimation method:
in the formula: x is the number ofiIs a data sample of precipitation or runoff,
is the average value of precipitation or runoff, and a is a parameter of the maximum likelihood estimation method (without practical significance).
Further, the process of calculating the normalized drought-waterlogging jerk index by using the drought-waterlogging index in step S3 is as follows:
in the formula: SDWAI is a standardized drought and flood acute turn index, Zi+1And ZiRespectively weather hydrological series data
Drought and flood indices that are normalized at adjacent times i +1 and i, where i is 1,2, …, n-1,
n is the series length, SaAbsolute distance of drought and flood indexes, namely:
further, the drought/flood and sudden turn rating classification standard in step S4 includes 9 classes, which are respectively: extreme drought transferring to waterlogging, severe drought transferring to waterlogging, moderate drought transferring to waterlogging, mild drought transferring to waterlogging, normal, mild waterlogging transferring to drought, moderate waterlogging transferring to drought, severe waterlogging transferring to drought, and extreme waterlogging transferring to drought.
The invention also provides a drought and waterlogging rush turn evaluation device, which comprises a data acquisition module, a drought and waterlogging index calculation module, a standardized drought and waterlogging rush turn index module and a division module which are sequentially in communication connection;
wherein, the data acquisition module: the system is used for collecting meteorological hydrological series data of a certain period of time;
the drought and waterlogging index calculation module: the system is used for calculating drought and waterlogging indexes according to the meteorological hydrological series data acquired by the data acquisition module;
a standardized drought and flood sudden turn index module: the drought and waterlogging index calculation module is used for calculating to obtain a standardized drought and waterlogging jerk index according to the drought and waterlogging index obtained by the drought and waterlogging index calculation module;
a dividing module: and the method is used for grading the value obtained by the standardized drought and waterlogging rush turning index module according to the drought and waterlogging rush turning grading standard.
The invention also provides electronic equipment which comprises a processor, a communication interface, a memory and a communication bus, wherein the processor and the communication interface are used for finishing mutual communication by the memory through the communication bus; a memory for storing a computer program; and the processor is used for executing the program stored in the memory and realizing the drought and waterlogging rush turning evaluation method.
The invention also provides a computer readable storage medium, which stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for evaluating drought and waterlogging makes a sudden turn.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
the drought and waterlogging index is calculated based on the original meteorological hydrological series data, the drought and waterlogging turning index is obtained through standardization, and the drought and waterlogging turning is graded according to the value of the drought and waterlogging turning index. The method avoids the problems of misjudgment and missed judgment of drought and waterlogging emergency, ensures that the level classification of drought and waterlogging emergency is consistent with the conventional drought and waterlogging level classification in threshold setting and qualitative sense, and is favorable for the unification of a drought and waterlogging evaluation system.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the drought and flood emergency assessment method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a drought and flood sharp turn rating criterion;
FIG. 3 is a graph showing data of a radial flow month series in example 2;
FIG. 4 is a graph showing drought-waterlogging index values in example 2;
FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating the standardized drought, flood and turn-fast index values in example 2;
FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram of the evaluation result of the drought/flood sudden-turn rating in example 2.
Detailed Description
The drawings are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be construed as limiting the patent; for the purpose of better illustrating the embodiments, certain features of the drawings may be omitted, enlarged or reduced, and do not represent the size of an actual product; it will be understood by those skilled in the art that certain well-known structures in the drawings and descriptions thereof may be omitted. The positional relationships depicted in the drawings are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be construed as limiting the present patent.
Example 1:
as shown in fig. 1 and 2, a drought and waterlogging emergency assessment method includes the following steps:
s1, collecting meteorological hydrological series data in a certain time period;
s2, calculating to obtain drought and flood indexes based on the meteorological hydrological series data;
s3, calculating to obtain a standardized drought and waterlogging rush turning index by utilizing the drought and waterlogging index;
and S4, grading the obtained standardized drought and waterlogging jerk index value according to the drought and waterlogging jerk grading standard.
The meteorological hydrological series data in the step S1 include precipitation series data or runoff series data, and when the meteorological hydrological series data are calculated based on the precipitation series data, the obtained drought-waterlogging index is the standardized precipitation index SPI; when the calculation is carried out based on the runoff series data, the obtained drought-waterlogging index is the standardized runoff index SSI.
In this embodiment, the process of calculating the drought/flood index in step S2 is as follows:
if precipitation or runoff in a certain period is x, x >0, the probability density function of the distribution of gamma is as follows:
wherein β, γ are the scale and shape parameters, β >0, γ >0, respectively;
the beta and the gamma are obtained by a maximum likelihood estimation method:
in the formula: x is the number ofiIs a data sample of precipitation or runoff,
and A is the average value of precipitation or runoff, and A is a parameter of the maximum likelihood estimation method.
After determining the parameters of the probability density function, the precipitation or runoff x for a certain period of time0It can be found that the random variable x is smaller than x0The event probability of a time is:
an approximate estimate of the probability of an event after substitution of equation (1) for equation (5) can be calculated using numerical integration.
The probability of an event when precipitation or runoff is 0 is as follows:
in the formula: n is the number of samples of precipitation or runoff 0, and m is the total sample;
and (3) carrying out standardized transformation on the probability of the distribution of the gamma:
in the formula: z is drought and waterlogging index; c. C0＝2.515517、c1＝0.802853、c2＝0.010328；d1＝1.432788、d2＝0.189269、d30.001308; f is the event probability obtained by the formula (5) or the formula (6), when F is less than or equal to 0.5,
-1; when F is present>At the time of 0.5, the temperature of the mixture,
S＝1。
in this embodiment, the process of calculating the normalized drought-waterlogging jerk index using the drought-waterlogging index in step S3 is as follows (8):
in the formula: SDWAI is a standardized drought and flood acute turn index, Zi+1And ZiRespectively weather hydrological series data
Drought and flood indices that are normalized at adjacent times i +1 and i, where i is 1,2, …, n-1,
n is the series length, SaAbsolute distance of drought and flood indexes, namely:
and (8) assigning a value of 0 when the drought and waterlogging index series has adjacent values of same drought, same waterlogging and non-drought or non-waterlogging through condition judgment, and giving further calculation when the adjacent values are drought and waterlogging respectively.
The drought and waterlogging turning strength item is set, so that when the threshold value is set for drought and waterlogging turning grade division, the threshold value can be consistent with the drought and waterlogging grade division standard, for example, when the adjacent drought and waterlogging indexes are respectively-1.5 and 1.5, namely the threshold values of drought and waterlogging are respectively set,
is 1.5, and can be considered as the threshold for severe drought-to-flood. Conversely, when the adjacent drought-waterlogging index is 1.5 and-1.5, respectively, i.e. the threshold values for waterlogging and drought stress, respectively,
a threshold of-1.5, which can be considered as a threshold for severe waterlogging vs. drought.
Referring to fig. 2, in the present embodiment, the drought/flood sudden-turn rating classification criteria in step S4 includes 9 classes, which are respectively: extreme drought transferring to waterlogging, severe drought transferring to waterlogging, moderate drought transferring to waterlogging, mild drought transferring to waterlogging, normal, mild waterlogging transferring to drought, moderate waterlogging transferring to drought, severe waterlogging transferring to drought, and extreme waterlogging transferring to drought.
The invention also provides a drought and waterlogging rush turn evaluation device, which comprises a data acquisition module, a drought and waterlogging index calculation module, a standardized drought and waterlogging rush turn index module and a division module which are sequentially in communication connection;
wherein, the data acquisition module: the system is used for collecting meteorological hydrological series data of a certain period of time;
the drought and waterlogging index calculation module: the system is used for calculating drought and waterlogging indexes according to the meteorological hydrological series data acquired by the data acquisition module;
a standardized drought and flood sudden turn index module: the drought and waterlogging index calculation module is used for calculating to obtain a standardized drought and waterlogging jerk index according to the drought and waterlogging index obtained by the drought and waterlogging index calculation module;
a dividing module: and the method is used for grading the value obtained by the standardized drought and waterlogging rush turning index module according to the drought and waterlogging rush turning grading standard.
The invention also provides electronic equipment which comprises a processor, a communication interface, a memory and a communication bus, wherein the processor and the communication interface are used for finishing mutual communication by the memory through the communication bus; a memory for storing a computer program; and the processor is used for executing the program stored in the memory and realizing the drought and waterlogging rush turning evaluation method.
The invention also provides a computer readable storage medium, which stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for evaluating drought and waterlogging makes a sudden turn.
Example 2:
the method takes years of drought, waterlogging and sudden turning of a certain watershed as an analysis object of the invention, and comprises the following specific calculation and analysis steps:
1. collecting natural runoff month series data of the multi-year watershed control hydrological station of the watershed, as shown in fig. 3;
2. substituting the month series data into a formula (7) to calculate the drought and waterlogging index, wherein the data used by the case is runoff data, namely calculating a standardized runoff index SSI, and obtaining the drought and waterlogging index as shown in figure 4;
3. substituting the normalized runoff index SSI value into a formula (8), and calculating to obtain a normalized drought and waterlogging rush turning index (SDWAI) value, as shown in figure 5;
4. and judging the level of drought and waterlogging rush turning according to the drought and waterlogging rush turning level division standard in the table 1, as shown in figure 6.
The drought and waterlogging index is calculated based on the original meteorological hydrological series data, the drought and waterlogging turning index is obtained through standardization, and the drought and waterlogging turning is graded according to the value of the drought and waterlogging turning index. The method avoids the problems of misjudgment and missed judgment of drought and waterlogging emergency, ensures that the level classification of drought and waterlogging emergency is consistent with the conventional drought and waterlogging level classification in threshold setting and qualitative sense, and is favorable for the unification of a drought and waterlogging evaluation system.
It should be understood that the above-described embodiments of the present invention are merely examples for clearly illustrating the present invention, and are not intended to limit the embodiments of the present invention. Other variations and modifications will be apparent to persons skilled in the art in light of the above description. And are neither required nor exhaustive of all embodiments. Any modification, equivalent replacement, and improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A drought and waterlogging sudden turning assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, collecting meteorological hydrological series data in a certain time period;
s2, calculating to obtain drought and flood indexes based on the meteorological hydrological series data;
s3, calculating to obtain a standardized drought and waterlogging rush turning index by utilizing the drought and waterlogging index;
and S4, grading the obtained standardized drought and waterlogging jerk index value according to the drought and waterlogging jerk grading standard.
2. The method for assessing drought or flood emergency turns according to claim 1, wherein the meteorological hydrological data set in step S1 comprises precipitation data set or runoff data set.
3. The method for assessing drought and flood urgency according to claim 2, wherein in step S2, when calculating based on the precipitation series data, the obtained drought and flood index is a standardized precipitation index SPI; when the calculation is carried out based on the runoff series data, the obtained drought-waterlogging index is the standardized runoff index SSI.
4. The drought/waterlogging emergency assessment method according to claim 2, wherein the drought/waterlogging index is calculated in step S2 as follows:
if precipitation or runoff in a certain period is x, x >0, the probability density function of the distribution of gamma is as follows:
wherein β, γ are the scale and shape parameters, β >0, γ >0, respectively;
precipitation or runoff x for a period of time0The random variable x is less than x0The event probability of a time is:
the probability of an event when precipitation or runoff is 0 is as follows:
in the formula: n is the number of samples of precipitation or runoff 0, and m is the total sample;
and (3) carrying out standardized transformation on the probability of the distribution of the gamma:
in the formula: z is drought and waterlogging index; c. C0＝2.515517、c1＝0.802853、c2＝0.010328；d1＝1.432788、d2＝0.189269、d30.001308; f is the event probability, when F is less than or equal to 0.5,
-1; when F is present>At the time of 0.5, the temperature of the mixture,
S＝1。
5. the method for evaluating drought/flood emergency turns according to claim 4, wherein β and γ are obtained by maximum likelihood estimation:
in the formula:xiis a data sample of precipitation or runoff,
and A is the average value of precipitation or runoff, and A is a parameter of the maximum likelihood estimation method.
6. The method for assessing drought and waterlogging emergency response according to claim 4, wherein the step S3 of calculating the normalized drought and waterlogging emergency response index using the drought and waterlogging index comprises the following steps:
in the formula: SDWAI is a standardized drought and flood acute turn index, Zi+1And ZiRespectively the drought and flood indexes of the meteorological hydrological series data after standardized changes at adjacent time i +1 and i, wherein i is 1,2, …, n-1, n is the series length, S isaAbsolute distance of drought and flood indexes, namely:
7. the method for assessing waterlogging and drought scramming according to claim 1, wherein the grading criteria for waterlogging and drought in step S4 includes 9 grades, which are: extreme drought transferring to waterlogging, severe drought transferring to waterlogging, moderate drought transferring to waterlogging, mild drought transferring to waterlogging, normal, mild waterlogging transferring to drought, moderate waterlogging transferring to drought, severe waterlogging transferring to drought, and extreme waterlogging transferring to drought.
8. The drought and waterlogging tight turning evaluation device is characterized by comprising a data acquisition module, a drought and waterlogging index calculation module, a standardized drought and waterlogging tight turning index module and a division module which are sequentially in communication connection;
wherein, the data acquisition module: the system is used for collecting meteorological hydrological series data of a certain period of time;
the drought and waterlogging index calculation module: the system is used for calculating drought and waterlogging indexes according to the meteorological hydrological series data acquired by the data acquisition module;
a standardized drought and flood sudden turn index module: the drought and waterlogging index calculation module is used for calculating to obtain a standardized drought and waterlogging jerk index according to the drought and waterlogging index obtained by the drought and waterlogging index calculation module;
a dividing module: and the method is used for grading the value obtained by the standardized drought and waterlogging rush turning index module according to the drought and waterlogging rush turning grading standard.
9. An electronic device is characterized by comprising a processor, a communication interface, a memory and a communication bus, wherein the processor and the communication interface are used for realizing mutual communication by the memory through the communication bus; a memory for storing a computer program; a processor for executing a program stored in a memory to implement the method for drought/waterlogging emergency assessment according to any one of claims 1-7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, in which a computer program is stored, which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the method for drought/waterlogging emergency assessment according to any one of claims 1-7.
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| CN115203625A (en) * | 2022-07-29 | 2022-10-18 | 应急管理部国家减灾中心 | Drought and waterlogging index data missing value interpolation method and device |
| CN116955886A (en) * | 2023-05-17 | 2023-10-27 | 武汉大学 | Multi-scale standardized drought and flood emergency index calculation method for strength and speed coupling |
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