CN111445064A - Weather drought day-by-day dynamic monitoring index - Google Patents
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- CN111445064A CN111445064A CN202010190237.6A CN202010190237A CN111445064A CN 111445064 A CN111445064 A CN 111445064A CN 202010190237 A CN202010190237 A CN 202010190237A CN 111445064 A CN111445064 A CN 111445064A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a weather drought day-by-day dynamic monitoring index, wherein a day-by-day weather drought index DI is calculated by adopting day-by-day weather data of a current monitoring station, and the drought level of the current monitoring station is judged according to the range of the day-by-day weather drought index DI; the establishment and application of the weather Drought Index (DI) obviously improve the service capability and the standardization and standardization level of the drought monitoring and evaluation business, can finely depict the drought occurrence, development and ending trends, and provides a core method for the relevant services and research works such as drought dynamic monitoring and evaluation.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of environmental monitoring, in particular to a weather drought daily dynamic monitoring index.
Background
Under the global climate warming and drying background, regional and seasonal drought aggravates sustainable development of modern agriculture, food safety and ecological safety risks, and the weather guarantee requirement for monitoring, early warning and evaluation of weather drought disasters is increased. The problem of drought monitoring indexes is always an international academic problem in the field of drought research; the meteorological department still uses the drought index based on the 'number of days without rain penetration' until 90 years in the 20 th century, cannot finely depict the dynamic process of drought occurrence and development, and is not suitable for the fine monitoring requirement. The comprehensive drought index CI widely used in China is established based on a weight accumulation idea of rainfall and the like in the past period of time, and the problem of unreasonable drought aggravation caused by the fact that early-stage rainfall moves out of a calculation window exists, so that the establishment of a new drought detection method is a problem which needs to be solved urgently by technical personnel in the related field.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems, the technical scheme provided by the invention is as follows: a weather drought day-by-day dynamic monitoring index is characterized in that a day-by-day weather drought index DI is calculated by adopting day-by-day weather data of a current monitoring station, and the drought level of the current monitoring station is judged according to the range of the day-by-day weather drought index DI;
the method specifically comprises the following steps:
the first step is as follows: defining a single-station day-by-day weather drought index DI:
in the formula (1), SAPIiIs the normalized variable SAPI of the precipitation index API at the ith day onwards,
representing the annual average dry and wet condition annual change of the current monitoring station for the annual average relative wetness index of the current monitoring station;
the second step is that: calculating the i-th day-ahead precipitation index API in the formula (1):
APIi＝Pi+KAPIi-1(2)
in the formula (2), APIiIs API of day i, PiIn terms of daily precipitation (mm), APIi-1The API of the previous day, k is an attenuation coefficient, and an empirical value of 0.955 is taken;
the third step: the ith daily year synchronization average of the current monitoring station in the calculation formula (1)Relative wetness index
S1, calculating the daily average relative humidity index of the historical 30 years (1981-2010) in the same period by stations:
in the formula (3)
Average precipitation in millimeters for 30 years of the day (1981-2010);
the average possible evapotranspiration amount of 30 years (1981-2010) on the ith day is calculated by adopting a FAO Penman-Monteith method, wherein the unit is millimeter; taking i as 1-365, wherein i represents the serial number of the day in one year, and taking the value of 3 months and 1 day on the 29 th day in leap year;
s2, pair
Performing sliding average treatment for 30 days;
S3、
the theoretical range is-1 to infinity, and is avoided because
Close to 0 result in
Tends to infinity when
A hyperbolic tangent function formula (4) is adopted, and the constraint variation range is-1.
(4) And calculating a defined day-by-day meteorological drought index DI, and judging the drought level of the current monitoring station according to the drought type and the drought level corresponding to the DI range.
Preferably, each monitoring station calculates the API by rolling day by day from the start of station building, the initial API is set to 0, and the API in the first 4 months after the start of station building is influenced by boundary effect and is discarded.
Preferably, the relationship between the daily weather drought index DI and the drought level is as follows:
if-0.5 < DI, the drought type is no drought; if-1.0 < DI ═ 0.5, then the drought type is mild drought; if-1.5 < DI ═ 1.0, then the drought type is moderate drought; if-2.0 < DI ═ 1.5, then the drought type is severe drought; if DI is less than-2.0, the drought type is extra drought.
The invention has the following advantages: the method constructs the early stage rainfall index API based on the thought that the people do not feel near thirst when the people go far water, constructs the day-to-day meteorological Drought Index (DI) based on the thought of climate background and disturbance and adopts the standardized early stage rainfall index (SAPI) and the perennial average relative humidity index, overcomes the problem that the unreasonable drought aggravates because early stage rainfall moves out of a calculation window of the comprehensive drought index CI established based on equal weight accumulation, and can finely depict the drought occurrence, development and ending trends; the establishment and application of the weather Drought Index (DI) can provide a core method for relevant services and research works such as drought dynamic monitoring evaluation and the like, can obviously improve the service capacity and the standardization and standardization levels of the drought monitoring and evaluation business, and has important significance for climate change and adjustment of industrial layout.
Detailed Description
A weather drought day-by-day dynamic monitoring index is characterized in that a day-by-day weather drought index DI is calculated by adopting day-by-day weather data of a current monitoring station, and the drought level of the current monitoring station is judged according to the range of the day-by-day weather drought index DI;
the method specifically comprises the following steps:
a weather drought day-by-day dynamic monitoring index is characterized in that a day-by-day weather drought index DI is calculated by adopting day-by-day weather data of a current monitoring station, and the drought level of the current monitoring station is judged according to the range of the day-by-day weather drought index DI;
the method specifically comprises the following steps:
the first step is as follows: defining a single-station day-by-day weather drought index DI:
in the formula (1), SAPIiIs the normalized variable SAPI of the precipitation index API at the ith day onwards,
representing the annual average dry and wet condition annual change of the current monitoring station for the annual average relative wetness index of the current monitoring station;
the second step is that: calculating the i-th day-ahead precipitation index API in the formula (1):
APIi＝Pi+KAPIi-1(2)
in the formula (2), APIiIs API of day i, PiIn terms of daily precipitation (mm), APIi-1The API of the previous day, k is an attenuation coefficient, and an empirical value of 0.955 is taken;
the third step: calculating the average relative humidity index of the ith daily year of the current monitoring station in the formula (1)
S1, calculating the daily average relative humidity index of the historical 30 years (1981-2010) in the same period by stations:
in the formula (3)
Average precipitation in millimeters for 30 years on day i (1981-2010);
the average possible evapotranspiration amount of 30 years (1981-2010) on the ith day is calculated by adopting a FAO Penman-Monteith method, wherein the unit is millimeter; taking i as 1-365, wherein i represents the serial number of the day in one year, and taking the value of 3 months and 1 day on the 29 th day in leap year;
s2, pair
Performing sliding average treatment for 30 days;
S3、
the theoretical range is-1 to infinity, and is avoided because
Close to 0 result in
Tends to infinity when
A hyperbolic tangent function formula (4) is adopted, and the constraint variation range is-1.
(4) And calculating a defined day-by-day meteorological drought index DI, and judging the drought level of the current monitoring station according to the drought type and the drought level corresponding to the DI range.
In the preferred embodiment of the present embodiment, each monitoring station calculates the API by rolling day by day from the start of the station building, the initial API is set to 0, and the API in the first 4 months after the start of the station building is discarded under the influence of the boundary effect.
The corresponding relation between the daily weather drought index DI and the drought level standard is shown in the following table, and the drought level of the current monitoring station can be judged according to the calculated daily weather drought index range:
TABLE 1 weather drought grade Standard
| Type of drought | DI Range |
| Without drought | -0.5<DI |
| Light drought | -1.0<DI<＝-0.5 |
| Zhonghan (middle drought) | -1.5<DI<＝-1.0 |
| Heavy drought | -2.0<DI<＝-1.5 |
| Extra drought | DI<＝-2.0 |
The present invention and the embodiments thereof have been described above without limitation, and it is within the scope of the present invention that those skilled in the art should be able to devise similar structural modes and embodiments without inventive changes without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention.
Claims (3)
1. A weather drought day-by-day dynamic monitoring index is characterized in that a day-by-day weather drought index DI is calculated by adopting day-by-day weather data of a current monitoring station, and the drought level of the current monitoring station is judged according to the range of the day-by-day weather drought index DI;
the method specifically comprises the following steps:
the first step is as follows: defining a single-station day-by-day weather drought index DI:
in the formula (1), SAPIiIs the normalized variable SAPI of the precipitation index API at the ith day onwards,
representing the annual average dry and wet condition annual change of the current monitoring station for the annual average relative wetness index of the current monitoring station;
the second step is that: calculating the i-th day-ahead precipitation index API in the formula (1):
APIi＝Pi+KAPIi-1(2)
in the formula (2), APIiIs API of day i, PiIn terms of daily precipitation (mm), APIi-1The API of the previous day, k is an attenuation coefficient, and an empirical value of 0.955 is taken;
the third step: calculating the average relative humidity index of the ith daily year of the current monitoring station in the formula (1)
S1, calculating the daily average relative humidity index of the historical 30 years (1981-2010) in the same period by stations:
in the formula (3)
Average precipitation in millimeters for 30 years on day i (1981-2010);
the average possible evapotranspiration amount of 30 years (1981-2010) on the ith day is calculated by adopting a FAO Penman-Monteith method, wherein the unit is millimeter; taking i as 1-365, wherein i represents one yearThe number of the middle day is 3 months and 1 day in the leap year of 2 months and 29 days;
s2, pair
Performing sliding average treatment for 30 days;
S3、
the theoretical range is-1 to infinity, and is avoided because
Close to 0 result in
Tends to infinity when
A hyperbolic tangent function formula (4) is adopted, and the constraint variation range is-1.
(4) And calculating a defined day-by-day meteorological drought index DI, and judging the drought level of the current monitoring station according to the drought type and the drought level corresponding to the DI range.
2. The weather drought day-by-day dynamic monitoring index as claimed in claim 1, wherein each monitoring station rolls and calculates the API day-by-day from the start of station building, the initial API is set to 0, and the API in the first 4 months after the start of station building is discarded without use due to the influence of boundary effect.
3. The weather drought day-by-day dynamic monitoring indicator according to claim 1, wherein the relationship between the day-by-day weather drought index DI and the drought level is as follows:
if-0.5 < DI, the drought type is no drought; if-1.0 < DI ═ 0.5, then the drought type is mild drought; if-1.5 < DI ═ 1.0, then the drought type is moderate drought; if-2.0 < DI ═ 1.5, then the drought type is severe drought; if DI is less than-2.0, the drought type is extra drought.
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN112633626A (en) * | 2020-11-11 | 2021-04-09 | 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所（广东省气象科学研究所） | Atmospheric pollutant monthly average concentration change meteorological contribution rate evaluation method |
| CN112649898A (en) * | 2020-11-11 | 2021-04-13 | 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所（广东省气象科学研究所） | Weather drought refined monitoring method |
| CN117828906A (en) * | 2024-03-05 | 2024-04-05 | 长江水利委员会长江科学院 | Drought transmission process simulation method, system and medium based on crop growth model |
-
2020
- 2020-03-18 CN CN202010190237.6A patent/CN111445064A/en active Pending
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
|---|
| 王春林 等: "近50年华南气象干旱时空特征及其变化趋势", 《生态学报》 * |
Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN112633626A (en) * | 2020-11-11 | 2021-04-09 | 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所（广东省气象科学研究所） | Atmospheric pollutant monthly average concentration change meteorological contribution rate evaluation method |
| CN112649898A (en) * | 2020-11-11 | 2021-04-13 | 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所（广东省气象科学研究所） | Weather drought refined monitoring method |
| CN112633626B (en) * | 2020-11-11 | 2024-01-05 | 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所（广东省气象科学研究所） | Atmospheric pollutant month average concentration change meteorological contribution rate assessment method |
| CN117828906A (en) * | 2024-03-05 | 2024-04-05 | 长江水利委员会长江科学院 | Drought transmission process simulation method, system and medium based on crop growth model |
| CN117828906B (en) * | 2024-03-05 | 2024-05-17 | 长江水利委员会长江科学院 | Drought transmission process simulation method, system and medium based on crop growth model |
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