CN105608840A - Mountain torrents early warning platform based on fused quantitative rainfall forecast algorithm, and early warning method thereof - Google Patents
Mountain torrents early warning platform based on fused quantitative rainfall forecast algorithm, and early warning method thereof Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a mountain torrents early warning platform based on a fused quantitative rainfall forecast algorithm, and an early warning method thereof. The mountain torrents early warning platform includes a region of interest background module, a real time information module, a weather forecast module, a system configuration module, an early warning grading sub system and an early warning releasing module. The mountain torrents early warning platform based on a fused quantitative rainfall forecast algorithm, and the early warning method thereof integrate an existing weather quantitative rainfall forecast technology with a mountain torrents early warning application scheme, consider of the nondeterminacy for rainfall forecast in different forecast periods at present, set a three-grade early warning application scheme for mountain torrent disaster prevention and control in the platform, can accurately release the mountain torrents early warning information, and can provide enough early warning response time, thus guaranteeing that people can be transferred safely and achieving the aim for early warning of mountain torrents.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of mountain torrents early warning platform and method for early warning, specifically a kind of mountain based on merging quantitative rainfall forecast algorithmFlood early warning platform and method for early warning, belong to hazards control early warning emergence technology field, the Yangtze river basin.
Background technology
In recent years, the mountain flood event that cause because of heavy showers the Yangtze river basin increases and frequently, causes society and economic loss huge,Mountain flood not only causes damage to local people masses safety of life and property, simultaneously the serious mountain flood prevention district that hinders alsoEconomy and social development. Therefore, carrying out the application study such as early warning technology of mountain flood prevention, is that the flood control of the current Yangtze river basin subtractsOutstanding problem urgently to be resolved hurrily in calamity work.
At present, domestic what carry out that mountain flood modes of warning mostly adopts is the monitoring based on to actual measurement rainfall, and contrast institute is draftedCritical Rainfall value, thereby carry out early warning; Because current quantitative rainfall forecast also exists certain uncertainty, some areas are temporaryDo not possess the real-time quantitative of obtaining rainfall forecast information etc., substantially less quantitatively looking to the future necessarily in mountain torrents early warning real workLeading time rainfall information of forecasting. But clearly, there is larger drawback in above-mentioned early warning mechanism or scheme, on the one hand, because not considering, often may there is the more phenomenon of failing to report in predictions for future rainfall data, on the other hand, and only mainly based on actual measurement rainfall dataCarry out early warning, though issue mountain torrents early warning information accurately and reliably, but the early warning response time providing be nowhere near, personnel comeNot as good as safe transfer, do not reach mountain torrents early warning final purpose.
Summary of the invention
For above-mentioned prior art existing problems, the invention provides a kind of mountain torrents early warning based on merging quantitative rainfall forecast algorithm flatPlatform and method for early warning, provide key technical problem taking required solution in actual mountain torrents preventing and controlling as goal in research, propose withCurrent advanced person's weather radar and mesoscale numerical value synoptic model technology are basis, introduce forecast rainfall in mountain flood early warningInformation, introduces weather forecast in mountain torrents early warning, and improve mountain flood and close on and Short-term Rainfall Prediction early warning technology ability, and rootSetting up interlock early warning scheme according to threshold value responds.
The present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions above-mentioned purpose: a kind of mountain torrents early warning based on merging quantitative rainfall forecast algorithmPlatform, described mountain torrents early warning platform comprises:
Pay close attention to district's background module, pay close attention to district's background information for understanding;
Real time information module, for inquiring about the rain condition information at each rainfall monitoring station, the Hydrologic Information of individual channels monitoring station, looks intoAsk the weather information of satellite cloud picture, radar information and weather conditions;
Weather forecast module, described weather forecast module comprises numerical model forecast and radar estimation two parts;
System configuration module, arranges basic configuration, leading subscriber, password amendment and the authority of system and checks system journal;
Early warning classification subsystem, in conjunction with mountain torrents early warning real work feature, take into full account existing rainfall forecast technical conditions orPresent situation, carries out early warning classification;
Early warning release module, for inquiring about unclosed early warning information, checking the early warning information having generated but do not issue, confirms to send outAfter cloth object, issue early warning information, the feedback information of inquiring about early warning information and response condition, early warning contact management.
Further, described early warning release module comprises that early warning list submodule, early warning information are issued submodule, submodule is fed back in early warningPiece, and early warning contact person address list management submodule.
A method for early warning for mountain torrents early warning platform based on the quantitative rainfall forecast algorithm of fusion, described method for early warning comprises following stepRapid:
1) forecast information, particularly forecast of the following quantitative rainfall in a day of consideration numerical model forecast are following may occur to fall by force for one dayRain process, if wherein numerical model forecasts that 24 hours rainfall forecast values of this subregion exceed 24 hours Critical Rainfall threshold values or 24 hours1 to 6 hour difference of interior appearance is lasted rainfall and is exceeded corresponding period Critical Rainfall threshold value, and early warning platform inside is sent and paid close attention to promptingInformation, and remind professional and technical personnel need to pay close attention to and strengthen Real-Time Monitoring and forecast analysis;
2) prewarning area has started rainfall, and monitors out significantly " rain peak " phenomenon, with this understanding, if go outExisting live rainfall value, the slip aggregate-value with certain hourly precipitation forecast information in 2 to 5 hours futures, exceedes the corresponding periodCritical Rainfall threshold value, should prepare to shift mountain torrents early warning;
3) occurring between flush period, based on obtained by a hour statistical information for actual measurement rainfall, respectively with the facing of corresponding periodBoundary's rainfall threshold value comparison.
Described step 3) in, if occur, the less than actual measurement rainfall aggregate-value of 1 hour has exceeded 1 hour corresponding Critical Rainfall thresholdValue, or there are different actual measurement rainfall values of lasting in 1 to 5 hour, then the rainfall forecast value looking to the future 1 hour, exceed phaseThe Critical Rainfall threshold value of corresponding period, is defined as shifting immediately early warning.
Described step 3) in, based on affecting rainfall early stage, by dynamic Critical Rainfall method calculating by time dynamic critical rainfall, itsCorresponding actual measurement 1h is the accumulated value with the 0-1h rainfall predicted value based on radar estimation with interior rainfall, with dynamically draft 1Hour Critical Rainfall compares, if exceed calculated dynamic critical rainfall value, is defined as in such cases shifting immediately pre-Alert.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows: this mountain torrents early warning platform and method for early warning, quantitative existing meteorology rainfall forecast technology is receivedEnter in mountain torrents early warning application scheme, and consider the uncertainty of existing different leading time rainfall forecasts, and establish in platformPut three grades of early warning application schemes for mountain flood prevention, can accurately issue mountain torrents early warning information, and provide enough pre-The alert response time, ensures personnel's safe transfer, reaches the object of mountain torrents early warning.
In meteorological rainfall forecast module, numerical model forecast is the effective way that realizes site-directed quantitative, and by numerical model byHour and 24 hours numerical value rainfall forecast achievements as the main input data of mountain torrents early warning short-term rainfall forecast, utilize numerical forecastThe real-time map that Model Results carries out forecast in a day shows and the inquiry of rainfall forecast achievement, and contrasts warning index threshold value and reportAlert. Forecast and radar estimation by numerical model, can avoid operation time long, reduce effect and the effect of prediction error.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the handling process schematic diagram that the present invention is based on the mountain torrents early warning platform that merges quantitative rainfall forecast algorithm;
Fig. 2 is mountain torrents early warning classification flow process specific design block diagram of the present invention.
Detailed description of the invention
Below in conjunction with embodiments of the invention, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is clearly and completely described, aobviousSo, described embodiment is only the present invention's part embodiment, instead of whole embodiment. Based on the reality in the present inventionExecute example, those of ordinary skill in the art, not making the every other embodiment obtaining under creative work prerequisite, belong toThe scope of protection of the invention.
Based on a mountain torrents early warning platform that merges quantitative rainfall forecast algorithm, described mountain torrents early warning platform comprises:
Pay close attention to district's background module, pay close attention to district's background information for understanding. Comprising: inquiry city, county and rural essential information,Inquiry county and rural essential information, inquiry each small watershed of this county and corresponding social and economic information thereof, inquiry river, waterThe work feelings information that storehouse, dyke etc. are relevant, the mountain torrents mud-rock flow that Bureau of Land and Resources provides landslide information.
Real time information module, for inquiring about the rain condition information at each rainfall monitoring station, the Hydrologic Information of individual channels monitoring station, looks intoAsk the weather information of satellite cloud picture, radar information and weather conditions.
Weather forecast module, described weather forecast module comprises numerical model forecast and radar estimation two parts.
System configuration module, arranges basic configuration, leading subscriber, password amendment and the authority of system and checks system journal.
Early warning classification subsystem, this subsystem is the core of this platform, the quality of early warning classification directly has influence on early warning release module.
In conjunction with mountain torrents early warning real work feature, take into full account existing rainfall forecast technical conditions or present situation, cause calamity and face draftingOn the basis of boundary's rainfall threshold value, quantitative meteorology rainfall forecast technology is included in mountain torrents early warning application, meanwhile, considered existingNot not true with leading time rainfall forecast (1-2 days quantitative rainfall forecasts of numerical model forecast and based on rain detection with radar estimation technology)Qualitative, three grades of early warning application technology schemes for mountain flood prevention are proposed, pay close attention to, prepare to shift and shift immediately.
Early warning release module, for inquiring about unclosed early warning information, checking the early warning information having generated but do not issue, confirms to send outAfter cloth object, issue early warning information, the feedback information of inquiring about early warning information and response condition, early warning contact management. Described early warningRelease module comprises that early warning list submodule, early warning information are issued submodule, submodule is fed back in early warning, and early warning contact person is logicalNews record management submodule.
A method for early warning for mountain torrents early warning platform based on the quantitative rainfall forecast algorithm of fusion, described method for early warning comprises following stepRapid:
(1) pay close attention to
Consider that the following 1 day quantitative rainfall forecast information of numerical model forecast, particularly forecast heavy showers may occur in 1 day futureJourney. Wherein, if numerical model forecast that this subregion 24h rainfall forecast value exceeds in 24h Critical Rainfall threshold value or 24h and occur 1-6hDifference is lasted rainfall and is exceeded corresponding period Critical Rainfall threshold value. Be defined as paying close attention to, send early warning system platform insidePay close attention to information, but wouldn't be upgraded to early warning, only as reminding professional and technical personnel need to pay close attention to and strengthen Real-Time Monitoring and pre-Cls analysis, this stage, indicating and entering the mountain torrents early warning stage, need to start to strengthen on duty and supervision analysis.
(2) prepare to shift
Prewarning area has started rainfall, and has monitored significantly " rain peak " phenomenon of appearance, with this understanding, if occurLive rainfall value, with the slip aggregate-value of certain hourly precipitation forecast information in following 2-5h, exceed corresponding period Critical RainfallThreshold value, determines in such cases for preparing to shift mountain torrents early warning. The early warning information in this stage represents to carry out transfer thought standardStandby, show great attention at any time real-time rain condition and follow-up early warning information, carry out and withdraw immediately relevant preparation.
(3) shift immediately
Occurring between flush period, based on obtained, by a hour actual measurement rainfall, (automatic rainfall meter is advised at least 1 time/10minFrequency flood information) statistical information, respectively with the Critical Rainfall threshold value comparison of corresponding period. Wherein, if 1. there is less than 1 hourActual measurement rainfall aggregate-value has exceeded 1 hour corresponding Critical Rainfall threshold value; Or there are in 1-5 hour the different actual measurement rainfall that lastValue, then the rainfall forecast value looking to the future 1 hour, exceedes the Critical Rainfall threshold value of corresponding period, is defined as shifting immediatelyEarly warning, externally early warning information is shifted in issue immediately. 2. based on affecting rainfall early stage, by dynamic Critical Rainfall method calculating by timeDynamic critical rainfall, the actual measurement 1h of its correspondence falls with the 0-1h based on radar estimation with the rainfall of interior (not reaching 1 hour)The accumulated value of rain predicted value, compares with 1 hour Critical Rainfall dynamically drafting, if exceed calculated dynamic critical rainfallValue, is defined as shifting immediately early warning in such cases. If 3. there are one of above-mentioned two situations, be all defined as shifting immediately,Be that early warning information is shifted in external issue immediately, evacuate to safe area at once.
The classification basis of above three grades of early warning is to choose Critical Rainfall threshold value. Setting forth Critical Rainfall threshold value below chooses as follows:
Calculate and pay close attention to 1 hour, 2 hours, 3 hours, 4 hours, 5 hours, 6 hours of point early warning representative station in district and 24 littleTime the subregion Critical Rainfall value of totally 7 objects, set it as " true value " of subregion mean rainfall of corresponding period of computing unit.
Adopt Thiessen polygon method to calculate the face Critical Rainfall of subregion. First generate Thiessen polygon with precipitation station dot file, pass throughOverlay analysis obtains the Thiessen polygon of each website in each district, then calculates each polygonal area, and each polygonalWeight, as the area weight of each website. Apply the face mean rainfall that following formula calculates each subregion:
In formula, R is subregion face mean rainfall; RiFor the Critical Rainfall of each precipitation station; fiThe area surrounding for each polygon; FFor the area of each study area; FiFor participating in the area weight of the each precipitation station calculating; I is polygonal number.
Rain condition, the Hydrologic Information of the each monitoring station of real time information module Real-time Collection, and be aided with the weather information such as satellite cloud picture, radarInformation, platform judges the development of rain condition possibility according to current real time information. If without development possibility, in routine monitoring shapeState. Otherwise the precipitation information in reading numerical values model predictions and radar estimation, further judges whether rain condition develops, simultaneously promptingBusiness personnel can consult and pay close attention to district's background information, relevant work feelings information and the mud-rock flow landslide letters such as inquiry river, reservoir, dykeBreath and social and economic information, for assessment of mountain torrents risk and loss. Platform, after judging that rain condition further develops, enters early warning and dividesLevel subsystem, carries out classification alarm business personnel according to threshold value to early warning, when in " paying close attention to " rank, only doesFor reminding professional and technical personnel need to pay close attention to and strengthen Real-Time Monitoring and forecast analysis; In the time of " preparing to shift " rank: representNeed to carry out transfer mental preparation, show great attention at any time real-time rain condition and follow-up early warning information, carry out and withdraw immediately relevant preparation;In the time of " shifting immediately " rank, need external issue to shift immediately early warning information, evacuate to safe area at once. Once industryBusiness personnel receive that this platform " is prepared to shift " or " shifting immediately " early warning information, should enter immediately early warning release module, send outCloth early warning information is also confirmed.
Embodiment
Linxiang City heavy showers process on July 3rd～4,2014. During heavy showers process, 10 subregion heavy showers of Linxiang CityPeriod mainly concentrates on 4 days 03～and 08 o'clock, add up each subregion face rainfall fact and predicted value during 03～14 o'clock. As space is limited,Taking relatively strong Ji Yuantan river, the Huang Gai lake region upstream of fact as example, by Huang Gai lake region 1h face rainfall live with 1～5h thereafterForecast rainfall slide respectively cumulative, 6h largest cumulative rainfall 64.1mm, lower than its corresponding 6h face Critical Rainfall threshold value, withThis analogizes, and the 2～5h fact of Huang Gai lake region is slided and added up with predicted value respectively, and it is critical that all demonstration does not reach the subregion of each corresponding periodRainfall threshold value. In like manner, all the other subregions of Linxiang all do not reach corresponding early-warning conditions to Yuan Tan river upstream in this rainfall,Early warning platform is not pointed out and is sent mountain flood early warning information, and this is consistent with the actual conditions that mountain flood does not occur area, Linxiang.
Above illustrated embodiment is preferred embodiments of the present invention, is only used for facilitating explanation the present invention, not the present invention is appointedWhat pro forma restriction, have in technical field under any and conventionally know the knowledgeable, if do not departing from technical characterictic that the present invention carriesIn scope, utilize disclosed technology contents to do the local equivalent embodiment that changes or modify, and do not depart from thisBright technical characterictic content, all still belongs in the scope of the technology of the present invention feature.
Claims (5)
1. the mountain torrents early warning platform based on merging quantitative rainfall forecast algorithm, is characterized in that described mountain torrents early warning platform bagDraw together:
Pay close attention to district's background module, pay close attention to district's background information for understanding;
Real time information module, for inquiring about the rain condition information at each rainfall monitoring station, the Hydrologic Information of individual channels monitoring station, looks intoAsk the weather information of satellite cloud picture, radar information and weather conditions;
Weather forecast module, described weather forecast module comprises numerical model forecast and radar estimation two parts;
System configuration module, arranges basic configuration, leading subscriber, password amendment and the authority of system and checks system journal;
Early warning classification subsystem, in conjunction with mountain torrents early warning real work feature, take into full account existing rainfall forecast technical conditions orPresent situation, carries out early warning classification;
Early warning release module, for inquiring about unclosed early warning information, checking the early warning information having generated but do not issue, confirms to send outAfter cloth object, issue early warning information, the feedback information of inquiring about early warning information and response condition, early warning contact management.
2. a kind of mountain torrents early warning platform based on merging quantitative rainfall forecast algorithm according to claim 1, is characterized in that:Described early warning release module comprises that early warning list submodule, early warning information are issued submodule, submodule is fed back in early warning, and early warningContact person's address list management submodule.
3. a method for early warning for the mountain torrents early warning platform based on the quantitative rainfall forecast algorithm of fusion, is characterized in that described early warningMethod comprises the steps:
1) forecast information, particularly forecast of the following quantitative rainfall in a day of consideration numerical model forecast are following may occur to fall by force for one dayRain process, if wherein numerical model forecasts that 24 hours rainfall forecast values of this subregion exceed 24 hours Critical Rainfall threshold values or 24 hours1 to 6 hour difference of interior appearance is lasted rainfall and is exceeded corresponding period Critical Rainfall threshold value, and early warning platform inside is sent and paid close attention to promptingInformation, and remind professional and technical personnel need to pay close attention to and strengthen Real-Time Monitoring and forecast analysis;
2) prewarning area has started rainfall, and monitors out significantly " rain peak " phenomenon, with this understanding, if go outExisting live rainfall value, the slip aggregate-value with certain hourly precipitation forecast information in 2 to 5 hours futures, exceedes the corresponding periodCritical Rainfall threshold value, should prepare to shift mountain torrents early warning;
3) occurring between flush period, based on obtained by a hour statistical information for actual measurement rainfall, respectively with the facing of corresponding periodBoundary's rainfall threshold value comparison.
4. the method for early warning of a kind of mountain torrents early warning platform based on the quantitative rainfall forecast algorithm of fusion according to claim 3,It is characterized in that: described step 3) in, if occur, the less than actual measurement rainfall aggregate-value of 1 hour has exceeded corresponding facing for 1 hourBoundary's rainfall threshold value, or there are different actual measurement rainfall values of lasting in 1 to 5 hour, then the rainfall forecast value looking to the future 1 hour,Exceed the Critical Rainfall threshold value of corresponding period, be defined as shifting immediately early warning.
5. the method for early warning of a kind of mountain torrents early warning platform based on the quantitative rainfall forecast algorithm of fusion according to claim 3,It is characterized in that: described step 3) in, based on affecting rainfall early stage, by dynamic Critical Rainfall method calculating by time dynamic criticalRainfall, the actual measurement 1h of its correspondence is the accumulated value with the 0-1h rainfall predicted value based on radar estimation with interior rainfall, and dynamically1 hour Critical Rainfall drafting compares, if exceed calculated dynamic critical rainfall value, is defined as in such cases standingShift early warning.
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