CN114936476B - Urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment method based on scenario simulation - Google Patents

Urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment method based on scenario simulation Download PDF

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CN114936476B
CN114936476B CN202210859900.6A CN202210859900A CN114936476B CN 114936476 B CN114936476 B CN 114936476B CN 202210859900 A CN202210859900 A CN 202210859900A CN 114936476 B CN114936476 B CN 114936476B
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曾燕
邱新法
王勇
朱晓晨
李艳忠
王珂清
徐进
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Nanjing Institute Of Meteorological Science And Technology Innovation
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Abstract

The invention discloses an urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment model algorithm based on scene simulation, which mainly comprises the steps of urban rainstorm intensity calculation, rainstorm waterlogging grade determination, urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment based on different scenes such as a recurrence period and rainfall duration and the like. The invention establishes an urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment model based on scene simulation, which utilizes urban waterlogging depths caused by rainfall scenes of different reproduction periods and different rainfall duration to carry out urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment, can be applied to the fields of urban construction planning, urban waterlogging management and the like, and provides scientific basis for urban flood risk prevention.

Description

一种基于情景模拟的城市暴雨积涝风险评估方法A risk assessment method for urban rainstorm and waterlogging based on scenario simulation

技术领域technical field

本发明属于大气与环境科学技术领域，尤其涉及基于情景模拟的城市暴雨积涝风险评估。The invention belongs to the field of atmospheric and environmental science and technology, and in particular relates to urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment based on scenario simulation.

背景技术Background technique

城市积涝是一种严重的自然灾害，一般因短时间内的集中强降雨形成，因降雨而产生的大量雨水超过城市排水系统的排放能力，就会在城市内的一定区域发生积水，引起灾害。城市暴雨积涝已成为中国城市安全发展的重要挑战，城市积涝风险评估对市政规划与建设具有重要指导意义。Urban waterlogging is a serious natural disaster, which is generally formed by concentrated heavy rainfall in a short period of time. The large amount of rainwater generated by the rainfall exceeds the discharge capacity of the urban drainage system, and waterlogging will occur in a certain area of the city, causing disaster. Urban rainstorm waterlogging has become an important challenge to the safe development of Chinese cities, and urban waterlogging risk assessment has important guiding significance for municipal planning and construction.

目前城市暴雨积涝灾害风险评估模型考虑因素较多，且诸多因子及其相关权重很难客观确定（目前国内各地灾情收集仍以经验估算法为主要手段），实际应用时，可操作性不强，主观性也较大。At present, the urban rainstorm and waterlogging disaster risk assessment model considers many factors, and many factors and their related weights are difficult to objectively determine (currently, the empirical estimation method is still used as the main method for disaster situation collection in various parts of China), and the practical application is not strong. , is also more subjective.

发明内容Contents of the invention

发明目的：针对上述现有存在的问题和不足，本发明的目的是提供了一种基于情景模拟的城市暴雨积涝风险评估模型算法，本模型利用不同重现期、不同降雨历时降水量情景造成的积水深度进行城市暴雨积涝风险评估，可应用于城市建设规划、城市积涝管理等领域，为城市洪灾风险防范提供科学依据。Purpose of the invention: In view of the above-mentioned existing problems and deficiencies, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a model algorithm for evaluating the risk of urban rainstorm and waterlogging based on scenario simulation. The risk assessment of urban rainstorm and waterlogging can be applied to urban construction planning, urban waterlogging management and other fields, and provide a scientific basis for urban flood risk prevention.

技术方案：为实现上述发明目的，本发明采用以下技术方案：一种基于情景模拟的城市暴雨积涝风险评估模型算法，包括以下步骤：Technical solution: In order to achieve the purpose of the above invention, the present invention adopts the following technical solution: a model algorithm for evaluating the risk of urban rainstorm and waterlogging based on scenario simulation, including the following steps:

步骤S1，暴雨强度计算Step S1, Calculation of Rainstorm Intensity

首先，通过暴雨强度公式（1）计算得到城市暴雨强度i，First, the urban rainstorm intensity i is calculated by the rainstorm intensity formula (1),

Figure 573208DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
（1）
Figure 573208DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
(1)

式中，i为暴雨强度，单位为mm/min；T为重现期，单位为a，t为降雨历时，单位为min；b、n、A 1和C均为城市暴雨强度公式拟合参数，由城市降雨观测资料拟合得到，也可以采用市政部门公布的城市暴雨强度公式。In the formula, i is the rainstorm intensity in mm/min; T is the return period in a, t is the rainfall duration in min; b , n , A 1 and C are the fitting parameters of the urban rainstorm intensity formula , obtained by fitting urban rainfall observation data, or the urban rainstorm intensity formula published by the municipal department.

步骤S2，积水深度与等级计算Step S2, Calculation of ponding depth and level

将城市暴雨强度结合产流模型、数字高程模型DEM、管网排涝和建筑密度，计算得 到城市栅格的积水深度d，并根据积水深度对城市的影响，确定城市暴雨积水等级W，

Figure 21507DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
； Combining the urban rainstorm intensity with the runoff model, digital elevation model DEM, pipe network drainage and building density, the waterlogging depth d of the urban grid is calculated, and according to the impact of the waterlogging depth on the city, the urban rainstorm waterlogging level W is determined.
Figure 21507DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
;

步骤S3，基于不同重现期情景的暴雨积涝风险评估Step S3, risk assessment of rainstorm and waterlogging based on different return period scenarios

首先，以城市栅格作为计算单元，假设编号为k的计算单元在重现期为A m ，单位为 a，降雨历时为R n ，单位为min情景下的积水等级为

Figure 535665DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
，其中下角标m为重现期标识，
Figure 462033DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
，M为重现期设定的总个数；下角标n为降雨历时标识，
Figure 823875DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
，N为 降雨历时设定的总个数； First, take the urban grid as the calculation unit, assuming that the calculation unit numbered k is A m in the return period, the unit is a, the rainfall duration is R n , and the unit is min. The level of water accumulation under the scenario is
Figure 535665DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
, where the subscript m is the return period mark,
Figure 462033DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
, M is the total number set for the return period; the subscript n is the rainfall duration mark,
Figure 823875DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
, N is the total number of rainfall settings;

然后，通过式（2）获得计算单元在重现期A m 情景下的风险值

Figure 177496DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
； Then, the risk value of the calculation unit under the scenario of return period A m is obtained by formula (2)
Figure 177496DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
;

Figure 975688DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
（2）
Figure 975688DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
(2)

通过式（3）获得计算单元在多个重现期情景下的综合风险值

Figure 440167DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
； The comprehensive risk value of the calculation unit under multiple return period scenarios is obtained by formula (3)
Figure 440167DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
;

Figure 187674DEST_PATH_IMAGE009
（3）
Figure 187674DEST_PATH_IMAGE009
(3)

接着，对综合风险值

Figure 446617DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
进行风险等级划分； Next, for the composite value at risk
Figure 446617DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
Carry out risk classification;

步骤S4，基于不同降雨历时情景的暴雨积涝风险评估Step S4, risk assessment of rainstorm and waterlogging based on different rainfall duration scenarios

首先，以城市栅格作为计算单元，假设编号为k的计算单元在重现期为A m ，降雨历 时为R n 情景下的积水等级为

Figure 732105DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
，其中k为计算单元的序号标识；下角标m为重现期标识，
Figure 751008DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
，M为重现期设定的总个数；下角标n为降雨历时标识，
Figure 602289DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
，N 为降雨历时设定的总个数； First, take the urban grid as the calculation unit, assuming that the calculation unit numbered k has a return period of A m , and the level of water accumulation under the scenario of rainfall duration R n is
Figure 732105DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
, where k is the serial number identification of the computing unit; the subscript m is the return period identification,
Figure 751008DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
, M is the total number set for the return period; the subscript n is the rainfall duration mark,
Figure 602289DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
, N is the total number of rainfall duration settings;

然后，通过式（4）计算得到计算单元在降雨历时R n 情景下的风险值

Figure 563292DEST_PATH_IMAGE013
； Then, the risk value of the calculation unit under the scenario of rainfall duration R n is calculated by formula (4)
Figure 563292DEST_PATH_IMAGE013
;

Figure 539338DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
（4）
Figure 539338DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
(4)

通过式（5）获得计算单元在多个降雨历时情景下的综合风险值V k The comprehensive risk value V k of the calculation unit under multiple rainfall duration scenarios is obtained by formula (5)

Figure 627511DEST_PATH_IMAGE015
（5）
Figure 627511DEST_PATH_IMAGE015
(5)

进一步的，步骤S3中所述重现期A m 设定的总个数M=9，A1、A2、A3、A4、A5、A6、A7、A8、A9分别对应重现期1a，2a，3a，5a，10a，20a，30a，50a，100a。Further, the total number M=9 set for the return period A m in step S3, A 1 , A 2 , A 3 , A 4 , A 5 , A 6 , A 7 , A 8 , A 9 are respectively Corresponding to recurrence period 1a, 2a, 3a, 5a, 10a, 20a, 30a, 50a, 100a.

进一步的，步骤S3中所述降雨历时R n 设定的总个数N=9，R1、R2、R3、R4、R5、R6、R7、R8、R9分别对应降雨历时10min，20min，30min，45min，60min，90min，120min，150min，180min。Further, the total number N=9 set by the rainfall duration R n in step S3, R 1 , R 2 , R 3 , R 4 , R 5 , R 6 , R 7 , R 8 , and R 9 respectively correspond to Rainfall lasted 10min, 20min, 30min, 45min, 60min, 90min, 120min, 150min, 180min.

进一步的，步骤S1所述暴雨强度公式（1）中的计算参数b、n、A 1和C由所在城市降雨观测资料进行拟合得到，或采用市政部门公布的城市暴雨强度公式。Further, the calculation parameters b , n , A 1 and C in the rainstorm intensity formula (1) in step S1 are obtained by fitting the rainfall observation data of the city where the city is located, or using the urban rainstorm intensity formula published by the municipal department.

进一步的，步骤S2中城市暴雨积水等级W按照下式（6）设定，Further, in step S2, the level W of urban rainstorm water accumulation is set according to the following formula (6):

Figure 802140DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
（6）
Figure 802140DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
(6)

式中，d为积水深度。In the formula, d is the water depth.

进一步的，步骤S3中根据综合风险值

Figure 668465DEST_PATH_IMAGE017
进行风险等级P划分，按式（7）进行， Further, in step S3, according to the comprehensive risk value
Figure 668465DEST_PATH_IMAGE017
Divide the risk level P according to formula (7),

Figure 944857DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
（7）
Figure 944857DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
(7)

上式中，

Figure 758092DEST_PATH_IMAGE017
表示综合风险值；风险等级为Ⅰ时表示无风险；风险等级为Ⅱ时，表示低 风险；风险等级为Ⅲ时，表示中等风险；风险等级为Ⅳ时，表示较高风险；风险等级为Ⅴ时， 表示高风险。 In the above formula,
Figure 758092DEST_PATH_IMAGE017
Indicates the comprehensive risk value; when the risk level is Ⅰ, it means no risk; when the risk level is Ⅱ, it means low risk; when the risk level is Ⅲ, it means medium risk; when the risk level is Ⅳ, it means high risk; , indicating high risk.

进一步的，步骤S4中所述对计算单元k在多个降雨历时情景下，根据综合风险值

Figure 583966DEST_PATH_IMAGE017
进行风险等级P划分，按式（8）进行， Further, the calculation unit k described in step S4 under multiple rainfall duration scenarios, according to the comprehensive risk value
Figure 583966DEST_PATH_IMAGE017
Carry out risk level P division, according to formula (8),

Figure 886771DEST_PATH_IMAGE019
（8）
Figure 886771DEST_PATH_IMAGE019
(8)

上式中，V k 表示综合风险值；风险等级P为Ⅰ时表示无风险；风险等级P为Ⅱ时，表示低风险；风险等级P为Ⅲ时，表示中等风险；风险等级P为Ⅳ时，表示较高风险；风险等级P为Ⅴ时，表示高风险。In the above formula, V k represents the comprehensive risk value; when the risk level P is I, it means no risk; when the risk level P is II, it means low risk; when the risk level P is III, it means medium risk; when the risk level P is IV, Indicates a relatively high risk; when the risk level P is Ⅴ, it indicates a high risk.

有益效果：与现有技术相比，本发明基于不同重现期降水量情景结合城市积水深度模拟实现城市暴雨积涝风险评估，给出的风险评估模型具有定量、客观、可操作性强、易于推广等优点。Beneficial effects: Compared with the prior art, the present invention realizes the risk assessment of urban rainstorm and waterlogging based on different return period precipitation scenarios combined with the simulation of urban water accumulation depth, and the risk assessment model given is quantitative, objective, operable, Easy to promote and other advantages.

附图说明Description of drawings

图1为本发明所述基于情景模拟的城市暴雨积涝风险评估模型算法的流程示意图；Fig. 1 is the schematic flow chart of the urban rainstorm and waterlogging risk assessment model algorithm based on scenario simulation of the present invention;

图2为本发明实施例南京主城区1a重现期暴雨积涝风险图；Fig. 2 is the rainstorm waterlogging risk diagram of the 1a return period of Nanjing main urban area according to the embodiment of the present invention;

图3为本发明实施例南京市主城区暴雨积涝综合风险图。Fig. 3 is a comprehensive risk map of rainstorm and waterlogging in the main urban area of Nanjing according to the embodiment of the present invention.

具体实施方式Detailed ways

下面结合附图和具体实施例，进一步阐明本发明，应理解这些实施例仅用于说明本发明而不用于限制本发明的范围，在阅读了本发明之后，本领域技术人员对本发明的各种等价形式的修改均落于本申请所附权利要求所限定的范围。Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and specific embodiment, further illustrate the present invention, should be understood that these embodiments are only for illustrating the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, after having read the present invention, those skilled in the art will understand various aspects of the present invention Modifications in equivalent forms all fall within the scope defined by the appended claims of this application.

结合图1的流程，以下详细介绍本发明方法的技术思路及流程：In conjunction with the flow process of Fig. 1, the technical thinking and the flow process of the inventive method are introduced in detail below:

（1）计算降雨量(1) Calculation of rainfall

依据城市暴雨强度公式计算不同重现期、不同降雨历时情况下累积降雨量，暴雨强度公式如下所示：According to the urban rainstorm intensity formula, the cumulative rainfall under different return periods and different rainfall durations is calculated. The rainstorm intensity formula is as follows:

Figure 650459DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
Figure 650459DEST_PATH_IMAGE020

式中，i为暴雨强度（mm/min）； T为重现期（a）。t为降雨历时（min）；b、n、A 1、C为参数，按照《室外排水设计规范》GB50014-2006，依据当地降雨观测资料来拟合计算，城市暴雨强度公式一般由市政部门公布。以南京市为例，南京市城管局2014年公布的南京市暴雨强度公式为：In the formula, i is the rainstorm intensity (mm/min); T is the return period (a). t is the duration of rainfall (min); b , n , A 1 , and C are parameters, which are calculated according to the "Code for Design of Outdoor Drainage" GB50014-2006 and based on the local rainfall observation data. The urban rainstorm intensity formula is generally announced by the municipal department. Taking Nanjing as an example, the formula for the intensity of rainstorms in Nanjing published by the Urban Management Bureau of Nanjing in 2014 is:

Figure 267385DEST_PATH_IMAGE021
单位：mm/min
Figure 267385DEST_PATH_IMAGE021
Unit: mm/min

依据此公式，可以计算获得南京市不同重现期不同降雨历时情景的降雨量（见表1）According to this formula, the rainfall of different rainfall duration scenarios in different return periods in Nanjing can be calculated (see Table 1).

表1 南京市不同重现期对应不同降雨历时情景下累积降雨量（mm）Table 1 Accumulated rainfall (mm) under different rainfall duration scenarios corresponding to different return periods in Nanjing

Figure 947765DEST_PATH_IMAGE022
Figure 947765DEST_PATH_IMAGE022

（2）计算积水深度与等级(2) Calculation of water depth and level

依据暴雨强度公式计算获得不同重现期、不同降雨历时情景下累积降雨量（表1），再结合产流模型、DEM（数字高程模型）、管网排涝和建筑密度等计算获得城市栅格积水深度（注：可以利用美国农业部水土保持局SCS模型计算产流量，之后结合DEM、管网排涝和建筑密度对汇流的影响，计算获得城市栅格积水深度。此部分内容方法成熟，不属于本发明范畴，即：图1流程图中虚线方框内部分）。通过查阅国内外标准、论文、资料等，综合考虑城市暴雨积水对不同行业影响，设定城市暴雨积水等级，见表2。According to the calculation of the rainstorm intensity formula, the cumulative rainfall under different return periods and different rainfall duration scenarios (Table 1), and then combined with the runoff model, DEM (digital elevation model), pipe network drainage and building density to obtain the urban grid area. Water depth (Note: You can use the SCS model of the US Department of Agriculture’s Soil and Water Conservation Service to calculate the yield flow, and then combine DEM, pipe network drainage, and the impact of building density on the confluence to calculate the water depth of the urban grid. The methods in this part are mature and not Belong to the category of the present invention, that is: the part inside the dotted box in the flowchart of Fig. 1). By consulting domestic and foreign standards, papers, materials, etc., and comprehensively considering the impact of urban rainstorm water on different industries, set the level of urban rainstorm water, see Table 2.

表2 城市暴雨积水等级Table 2 Levels of urban storm water accumulation

Figure 172204DEST_PATH_IMAGE023
Figure 172204DEST_PATH_IMAGE023

（3）基于不同重现期情景的暴雨积涝风险评估(3) Rainstorm and waterlogging risk assessment based on scenarios with different return periods

依据表2，将积水深度转换成积水等级。设任意计算单元（栅格）k在重现期为A m （a），降雨历时R n （min）情景下积水等级为

Figure 875718DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
，其中k为计算单元的序号标识；下角标m为 重现期标识，m=1，2，3，4，5，……M，M为重现期总个数，一般取9；下角标n为降雨历时标识，n= 1，2，3，4，5，……N，N为降雨历时总个数，一般取9。计算单元k在不同重现期不同降雨历时情 景下积水等级矩阵见表3。 According to Table 2, the depth of water accumulation is converted into water accumulation level. Suppose the return period of any calculation unit (grid) k is A m (a), and the level of water accumulation under the scenario of rainfall duration R n (min) is
Figure 875718DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
, where k is the serial number identification of the calculation unit; the subscript m is the return period identification, m = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, ... M, M is the total number of return periods, generally 9; the subscript n is the rainfall duration mark, n = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, ... N, N is the total number of rainfall duration, generally 9. See Table 3 for the accumulation level matrix of calculation unit k under different rainfall duration scenarios in different return periods.

表3 计算单元k在不同重现期不同降雨历时情景下积水等级矩阵Table 3 Waterlogging level matrix of calculation unit k under different rainfall duration scenarios in different return periods

Figure 827493DEST_PATH_IMAGE025
Figure 827493DEST_PATH_IMAGE025

A m （a）重现期情景下，该计算单元风险值P k,m计算式为： A m (a) Under the return period scenario, the calculation formula for the calculation unit risk value P k, m is:

Figure 831222DEST_PATH_IMAGE026
Figure 831222DEST_PATH_IMAGE026

考虑多个重现期的情况下，该计算单元的综合风险值P k 计算式为：Considering multiple return periods, the calculation formula of the comprehensive risk value P k of this calculation unit is:

Figure 492141DEST_PATH_IMAGE027
Figure 492141DEST_PATH_IMAGE027

P k 值对应风险级别见表4。See Table 4 for the corresponding risk level of P k value.

表4 综合风险值P k 分级标准Table 4 Grading standard of comprehensive risk value P k

Figure 151793DEST_PATH_IMAGE028
Figure 151793DEST_PATH_IMAGE028

取M=9，N=9，即9个重现期、9个降雨历时。重现期与降雨历时取值见表5，即：A1、A2、A3、A4、A5、A6、A7、A8、A9分别对应重现期1a，2a，3a，5a，10a，20a，30a，50a，100a；R1、R2、R3、R4、R5、R6、R7、R8、R9分别对应降雨历时10min，20min，30min，45min，60min，90min，120min，150min，180min。Take M=9, N=9, that is, 9 return periods and 9 rainfall durations. The values of return period and rainfall duration are shown in Table 5, namely: A 1 , A 2 , A 3 , A 4 , A 5 , A 6 , A 7 , A 8 , and A 9 respectively correspond to return periods 1a, 2a, and 3a , 5a, 10a, 20a, 30a, 50a, 100a; R 1 , R 2 , R 3 , R 4 , R 5 , R 6 , R 7 , R 8 , R 9 respectively correspond to the rainfall duration of 10min, 20min, 30min, 45min , 60min, 90min, 120min, 150min, 180min.

表5 重现期与降雨历时取值表Table 5 Value table of return period and rainfall duration

Figure 907259DEST_PATH_IMAGE029
Figure 907259DEST_PATH_IMAGE029

依据表5，则1a重现期情景下，该计算单元风险值P k,1计算式为：According to Table 5, under the 1a return period scenario, the calculation formula for the calculation unit risk value P k, 1 is:

Figure 765494DEST_PATH_IMAGE030
Figure 765494DEST_PATH_IMAGE030

以此类推可以计算获得2a、3a、5a、10a、20a、30a、50a、100a重现期情景下，该计算单元的风险值P k,2、P k,3、P k,4、P k,5、P k,6、P k,7、P k,8、P k,9。By analogy, the risk value P k ,2 , P k ,3 , P k ,4 , P k of the calculation unit can be calculated under the return period scenarios of 2a, 3a, 5a, 10a, 20a, 30a, 50a, 100a ,5 , P k ,6 , P k ,7 , P k ,8 , P k ,9 .

该计算单元的综合风险值P k 计算式为：The calculation formula of the comprehensive risk value P k of this calculation unit is:

Figure 581003DEST_PATH_IMAGE031
Figure 581003DEST_PATH_IMAGE031

（4）基于不同降雨历时情景的暴雨积涝风险评估(4) Rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment based on different rainfall duration scenarios

同样基于计算单元k，R n （min）降雨历时情景下，该计算单元风险值V k,n计算式为：Also based on the calculation unit k , R n (min) under the rainfall duration scenario, the calculation formula for the calculation unit risk value V k, n is:

Figure 275420DEST_PATH_IMAGE032
Figure 275420DEST_PATH_IMAGE032

考虑多个降雨历时情况下，该计算单元的综合风险值V k 计算式为：Considering multiple rainfall durations, the calculation formula of the comprehensive risk value V k of this calculation unit is:

Figure 834578DEST_PATH_IMAGE033
Figure 834578DEST_PATH_IMAGE033

对照可知，V k 与P k 相同，即：V k = P k 。It can be seen from the comparison that V k is the same as P k , namely: V k = P k .

按照表5重现期与降雨历时取值，则10min降雨历时情景下，该计算单元风险值V k,1计算式为：According to the value of return period and rainfall duration in Table 5, under the scenario of 10min rainfall duration, the calculation formula of the risk value V k ,1 of this calculation unit is:

Figure 750581DEST_PATH_IMAGE034
Figure 471413DEST_PATH_IMAGE036
Figure 167973DEST_PATH_IMAGE037
Figure 750581DEST_PATH_IMAGE034
Figure 471413DEST_PATH_IMAGE036
Figure 167973DEST_PATH_IMAGE037

以此类推可以计算获得20min，30min，45min，60min，90min，120min，150min，180min降雨历时情景下，该计算单元的风险值V k,2、V k,3、V k,4、V k,5、V k,6、V k,7、V k,8、V k,9。该计算单元的综合风险值V k 计算式为：By analogy, the risk values V k, 2 , V k, 3 , V k, 4 , V k, 5 , V k, 6 , V k, 7 , V k, 8 , V k, 9 . The calculation formula of the comprehensive risk value V k of this calculation unit is:

Figure 4256DEST_PATH_IMAGE038
Figure 4256DEST_PATH_IMAGE038

以上述依据本发明的理想实施例为启示，通过上述的说明内容，相关工作人员完全可以在不偏离本项发明技术思想的范围内，进行多样的变更以及修改。本项发明的技术性范围并不局限于说明书上的内容，必须要根据权利要求范围来确定其技术性范围。Inspired by the above-mentioned ideal embodiment according to the present invention, through the above-mentioned description content, relevant workers can make various changes and modifications within the scope of not departing from the technical idea of the present invention. The technical scope of the present invention is not limited to the content in the specification, but must be determined according to the scope of the claims.

Claims (7)

1.一种基于情景模拟的城市暴雨积涝风险评估方法，其特征在于包括以下步骤：1. A method for assessing the risk of urban rainstorm and waterlogging based on scenario simulation, characterized in that it comprises the following steps: 步骤S1，暴雨强度计算Step S1, Calculation of Rainstorm Intensity 首先，通过暴雨强度公式（1）计算得到城市暴雨强度i，First, the urban rainstorm intensity i is calculated by the rainstorm intensity formula (1),
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
（1）
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
(1) 式中，i为暴雨强度；T为重现期，t为降雨历时；b、n、A 1和C均为城市暴雨强度公式拟合参数，由城市降雨观测资料拟合得到；In the formula, i is the rainstorm intensity; T is the return period, and t is the rainfall duration; b , n , A1 and C are the fitting parameters of the urban rainstorm intensity formula, which are obtained by fitting the urban rainfall observation data; 步骤S2，积水深度与等级计算Step S2, Calculation of ponding depth and level 将城市暴雨强度结合产流模型、数字高程模型DEM、管网排涝和建筑密度，计算得到城 市栅格的积水深度d，并根据积水深度对城市的影响，确定城市暴雨积水等级W，
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
； Combining the urban rainstorm intensity with the runoff model, digital elevation model DEM, pipe network drainage and building density, the waterlogging depth d of the urban grid is calculated, and according to the impact of the waterlogging depth on the city, the urban rainstorm waterlogging level W is determined.
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
; 步骤S3，基于不同重现期情景的暴雨积涝风险评估Step S3, risk assessment of rainstorm and waterlogging based on different return period scenarios 首先，以城市栅格作为计算单元，假设编号为k的计算单元在重现期为A m ，降雨历时为R n 情景下的积水等级为
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
，其中k为计算单元的序号标识；下角标m为重现期标识，
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
，M为重现期设定的总个数；下角标n为降雨历时标识，
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
，N为 降雨历时设定的总个数； First, take the urban grid as the calculation unit, assuming that the calculation unit numbered k has a return period of A m , and the level of water accumulation under the scenario of rainfall duration R n is
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
, where k is the serial number identification of the computing unit; the subscript m is the return period identification,
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
, M is the total number set for the return period; the subscript n is the rainfall duration mark,
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
, N is the total number of rainfall settings; 然后，通过式（2）获得计算单元k在重现期A m 情景下的风险值
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
； Then, the risk value of calculation unit k under the scenario of return period A m is obtained by formula (2)
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
;
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
（2）
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
(2) 通过式（3）获得计算单元k在多个重现期情景下的综合风险值
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
； The comprehensive risk value of calculation unit k in multiple return period scenarios is obtained by formula (3)
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
;
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE009
（3）
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE009
(3) 接着，对综合风险值
Figure 903073DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
进行风险等级划分； Next, for the composite value at risk
Figure 903073DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
Carry out risk classification; 步骤S4，基于不同降雨历时情景的暴雨积涝风险评估Step S4, risk assessment of rainstorm and waterlogging based on different rainfall duration scenarios 首先，以城市栅格作为计算单元，假设编号为k的计算单元在重现期为A m ，降雨历时为R n 情景下的积水等级为
Figure 492317DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
， First, take the urban grid as the calculation unit, assuming that the calculation unit numbered k has a return period of A m , and the level of water accumulation under the scenario of rainfall duration R n is
Figure 492317DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
, 然后，通过式（4）获得计算单元k在降雨历时R n 情景下的风险值
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
； Then, the risk value of calculation unit k under the scenario of rainfall duration R n is obtained by formula (4)
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
;
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
（4）
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
(4) 通过式（5）获得计算单元k在多个降雨历时情景下的综合风险值V k ；The comprehensive risk value V k of calculation unit k under multiple rainfall duration scenarios is obtained through formula (5);
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
（5）
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
(5) 最后，对计算单元k在多个降雨历时情景下的综合风险值V k 进行风险等级划分。Finally, the risk level division is carried out for the comprehensive risk value V k of the calculation unit k under multiple rainfall duration scenarios. 2.根据权利要求1所述基于情景模拟的城市暴雨积涝风险评估方法，其特征在于：步骤S3中所述重现期A m 设定的总个数M=9，A1、A2、A3、A4、A5、A6、A7、A8、A9分别对应重现期1a，2a，3a，5a，10a，20a，30a，50a，100a。2. The method for assessing the risk of urban rainstorm and waterlogging based on scenario simulation according to claim 1, characterized in that: the total number M=9 set by the return period A m described in step S3, A 1 , A 2 , A 3 , A 4 , A 5 , A 6 , A 7 , A 8 , and A 9 correspond to the return periods 1a, 2a, 3a, 5a, 10a, 20a, 30a, 50a, and 100a, respectively. 3.根据权利要求1所述基于情景模拟的城市暴雨积涝风险评估方法，其特征在于：步骤S3中所述降雨历时R n 设定的总个数N=9，R1、R2、R3、R4、R5、R6、R7、R8、R9分别对应降雨历时10min，20min，30min，45min，60min，90min，120min，150min，180min。3. The urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment method based on scenario simulation according to claim 1, characterized in that: the total number N=9 set by the rainfall duration R n in step S3, R 1 , R 2 , R 3. R 4 , R 5 , R 6 , R 7 , R 8 , and R 9 respectively correspond to the rainfall duration of 10min, 20min, 30min, 45min, 60min, 90min, 120min, 150min, and 180min. 4.根据权利要求1所述基于情景模拟的城市暴雨积涝风险评估方法，其特征在于：步骤S1所述暴雨强度公式（1）中的计算参数b、n、A 1和C，由所在城市降雨观测资料进行拟合得到，或采用市政部门公布的城市暴雨强度公式。4. The method for assessing the risk of urban rainstorm waterlogging based on scenario simulation according to claim 1, characterized in that: the calculation parameters b , n , A1 and C in the rainstorm intensity formula ( 1 ) in step S1 are determined by the city where It is obtained by fitting the rainfall observation data, or using the urban rainstorm intensity formula published by the municipal department. 5.根据权利要求1所述基于情景模拟的城市暴雨积涝风险评估方法，其特征在于：步骤S2中城市暴雨积水等级W按照下式（6）设定，5. The method for assessing the risk of urban rainstorm waterlogging based on scenario simulation according to claim 1, characterized in that: in step S2, the level W of urban rainstorm waterlogging is set according to the following formula (6),
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE013
（6）
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE013
(6) 式中，d为积水深度。In the formula, d is the water depth. 6.根据权利要求1所述基于情景模拟的城市暴雨积涝风险评估方法，其特征在于：步骤S3中根据综合风险值P k 进行风险等级P划分，按式（7）进行，6. According to the scenario simulation-based urban rainstorm and waterlogging risk assessment method of claim 1, it is characterized in that: in step S3, the risk level P is divided according to the comprehensive risk value P k , and it is carried out according to formula (7),
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
（7）
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
(7) 上式中，P k 表示综合风险值；风险等级P为Ⅰ时表示无风险；风险等级P为Ⅱ时，表示低风险；风险等级P为Ⅲ时，表示中等风险；风险等级P为Ⅳ时，表示较高风险；风险等级P为Ⅴ时，表示高风险。In the above formula, P k represents the comprehensive risk value; when the risk level P is I, it means no risk; when the risk level P is II, it means low risk; when the risk level P is III, it means medium risk; when the risk level P is IV, Indicates a relatively high risk; when the risk level P is Ⅴ, it indicates a high risk. 7.根据权利要求1所述基于情景模拟的城市暴雨积涝风险评估方法，其特征在于：步骤S4中所述对计算单元在多个降雨历时情景下，根据综合风险值V k 进行风险等级P划分，按式（8）进行，7. The method for assessing the risk of urban rainstorm and waterlogging based on scenario simulation according to claim 1, characterized in that: in the step S4, the calculation unit performs risk level P according to the comprehensive risk value V k under a plurality of rainfall duration scenarios. Divide according to formula (8),
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE015
（8）
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE015
(8) 上式中，V k 表示综合风险值；风险等级P为Ⅰ时表示无风险；风险等级P为Ⅱ时，表示低风险；风险等级P为Ⅲ时，表示中等风险；风险等级P为Ⅳ时，表示较高风险；风险等级P为Ⅴ时，表示高风险。In the above formula, V k represents the comprehensive risk value; when the risk level P is I, it means no risk; when the risk level P is II, it means low risk; when the risk level P is III, it means medium risk; when the risk level P is IV, Indicates a relatively high risk; when the risk level P is Ⅴ, it indicates a high risk.
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