CN113946928B

CN113946928B - Method and device for predicting physical property parameters of effective source rocks

Info

Publication number: CN113946928B
Application number: CN202010678406.0A
Authority: CN
Inventors: 侯连华; 杨春; 麻伟娇; 赵忠英; 王京红
Original assignee: Petrochina Co Ltd
Current assignee: Petrochina Co Ltd
Priority date: 2020-07-15
Filing date: 2020-07-15
Publication date: 2022-11-04
Anticipated expiration: 2040-07-15
Also published as: CN113946928A

Abstract

The invention provides a method and a device for predicting physical property parameters of effective hydrocarbon source rocks, wherein the method comprises the steps of obtaining the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and hydrogen index of the effective hydrocarbon source rocks to be detected; establishing an original hydrocarbon generation capability prediction model, and acquiring the original hydrocarbon generation capability of the effective source rock to be detected by using the original hydrocarbon generation capability prediction model according to the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and hydrogen index of the effective source rock to be detected; establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock physical property parameter prediction model, and acquiring the physical property parameters of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected according to the original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected and the effective hydrocarbon source rock physical property parameter prediction model; the physical property parameters comprise the lower limit value of the discharged oil gas quantity and/or the total organic carbon content. The method and the device provided by the invention can realize quantitative prediction of the discharged oil gas amount of the effective hydrocarbon source rock and/or quantitative evaluation of the TOC lower limit value of the effective hydrocarbon source rock, and improve the prediction precision and efficiency of oil gas resources and favorable zones.

Description

Method and device for predicting physical property parameters of effective hydrocarbon source rock

Technical Field

The invention relates to a method and a device for predicting physical property parameters of effective hydrocarbon source rocks, and belongs to the technical field of oil-gas exploration.

Background

The conventional oil and gas reservoir is formed by discharging, transporting and gathering oil and gas generated by hydrocarbon source rocks, and the effective hydrocarbon source rocks refer to rock layers which are generated by the oil and gas and discharged by the oil and gas. The effective source rock is the basis for evaluating conventional oil and gas resources and favorable zones, and only the development zone of the effective source rock is likely to be gathered into a reservoir. The effective hydrocarbon source rock is controlled by total organic carbon content TOC, vitrinite reflectivity Ro and hydrogen index HI, and the effective hydrocarbon source rock can be formed only after the hydrocarbon source rock with certain TOC and HI undergoes certain thermal evolution. At present, the evaluation of hydrocarbon discharge amount of hydrocarbon source rocks is based on the thermal simulation result of a small amount of hydrocarbon source rock samples, and a quantitative evaluation model of the discharged oil and gas amount is not established; the evaluation of the effective source rocks is based on the analysis of actual source rock samples under the stratum conditions, the obtained effective source rock TOC lower limit value cannot be quantitatively evaluated due to the loss of generated oil gas and the like in the source rock sampling process, and therefore, the effective source rock lower limit values obtained by different scholars are greatly different.

The method comprises the following steps of firstly, utilizing a thermal simulation experiment result of low-maturity source rocks and utilizing the total oil and gas production to establish an oil and gas discharge evaluation model; secondly, an open system simulation experiment, namely after a sample (with a small amount, generally several grams) is crushed, placing the heated sample according to the amount of the sample required by the instrument, rapidly heating the sample to the required temperature, discharging the sample while generating the sample in the heating process, collecting the generated hydrocarbon for analysis, and finishing the experiment after the required temperature is reached; and thirdly, a semi-open system high-temperature high-pressure hydrocarbon generation and discharge simulation experiment, namely putting a crushed sample (generally 200 g) into a sample kettle, vacuumizing, applying overpressure, setting a hydrocarbon discharge pressure threshold value, quickly heating to a set temperature, keeping the temperature for several days, collecting discharged natural gas, crude oil and water, quantitatively analyzing, and determining hydrocarbons remained in an experimental sample.

In the prior art, two schemes for predicting the effective source rock TOC lower limit value exist, namely, the effective source rock TOC lower limit value is obtained by carrying out numerical simulation by utilizing a hydrocarbon generation potential method and a material balance method; second, S obtained from the rock core sample of the hydrocarbon source ₁ (amount of light hydrocarbons when temperature reached 300 ℃ in Source rock pyrolysis experiment, i.e., free Hydrocarbon content in Source rock) and TOC value, S is used ₁ The point at which/TOC no longer increases determines the effective source rock TOC lower limit.

Three schemes for evaluating the amount of oil and gas discharged from a hydrocarbon source rock in the prior art have defects: 1. the total amount of generated oil gas obtained by thermal simulation is used for calculating and obtaining the oil gas discharge amount, but most hydrocarbon source rocks in the hydrocarbon-containing basin are subjected to certain thermal evolution, a certain amount of oil gas is generated or discharged, and the total oil gas production amount of the hydrocarbon source rocks is difficult to obtain, so that the oil gas discharge amount of the hydrocarbon source rocks cannot be accurately obtained. 2. The open system simulation experiment cannot pressurize, cannot simulate actual formation conditions, has small sample amount, large error and high temperature rise speed, cannot truly reflect the thermal maturation process of the hydrocarbon source rock, cannot obtain the discharge process of the hydrocarbon source rock under the formation conditions, and has large error of the obtained discharged oil gas amount. 3. A semi-open system high-temperature high-pressure hydrocarbon generation and discharge simulation experiment adopts a crushed loose sample, wherein a large space is reserved in the sample, the obtained retained oil gas amount is inaccurate, the retained oil gas amount and the discharged oil gas amount of a hydrocarbon source rock in a thermal maturation process under a stratum condition cannot be truly reflected, variable pressure obtaining data is not realized, and the evaluation of the discharged oil gas amount of the hydrocarbon source rock cannot be truly obtained.

Two schemes for predicting the effective hydrocarbon source rock TOC lower limit value in the prior art have defects, namely, the effective hydrocarbon source rock TOC lower limit value is obtained by carrying out numerical simulation by utilizing a hydrocarbon generation potential method and a material balance method, accurate hydrocarbon generation and hydrocarbon discharge models are required, but the models cannot be provided in reality, so that the obtained effective hydrocarbon source rock TOC lower limit value has large errors. 2. S obtained from a source rock core sample ₁ And TOC value, using S ₁ The TOC no longer increases, the effective source rock TOC lower limit value is determined, and oil and gas loss exists in the source rock core obtaining and experiment processes, so that the obtained effective source rock TOC lower limit value is inaccurate. So far, no method with high precision is used for evaluating the discharge oil gas quantity of the hydrocarbon source rock and the effective hydrocarbon source rock TOC lower limit value.

In conclusion, the existing hydrocarbon source rock discharged oil and gas quantity prediction scheme cannot quantitatively predict the hydrocarbon source rock discharged oil and gas quantity, and the existing effective hydrocarbon source rock TOC lower limit value determination method cannot accurately and quantitatively evaluate the effective hydrocarbon source rock TOC lower limit value. In view of the above problems, no effective solution has been proposed. Therefore, it has become an urgent technical problem in the art to provide a novel method and apparatus for predicting effective hydrocarbon source rock physical parameters.

Disclosure of Invention

To address the above-described shortcomings and drawbacks, it is an object of the present invention to provide a method for predicting effective source petrophysical parameters.

The invention also aims to provide a device for predicting the physical property parameters of the effective hydrocarbon source rocks.

It is also an object of the invention to provide a computer apparatus.

It is still another object of the present invention to provide a computer-readable storage medium. The invention can realize quantitative prediction of the discharged oil gas amount of the hydrocarbon source rock and/or quantitative evaluation of the effective hydrocarbon source rock TOC lower limit value, and improve the prediction precision and efficiency of oil gas resources and favorable zones.

In order to achieve the above object, in one aspect, the present invention provides a method for predicting effective source rock property parameters, wherein the method for predicting effective source rock property parameters includes:

acquiring the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and hydrogen index of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected;

establishing an original hydrocarbon generation capability prediction model, and acquiring the original hydrocarbon generation capability of the effective source rock to be detected by utilizing the original hydrocarbon generation capability prediction model according to the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and hydrogen index of the effective source rock to be detected;

establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock physical property parameter prediction model, and acquiring the physical property parameters of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected according to the original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected and the effective hydrocarbon source rock physical property parameter prediction model;

the physical property parameters comprise the lower limit value of the discharged oil gas quantity and/or the total organic carbon content.

In the above prediction method, preferably, when the property parameter is the discharged oil and gas amount, establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock property parameter prediction model, and obtaining the property parameter of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be measured according to the original hydrocarbon producing capability of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be measured and the effective hydrocarbon source rock property parameter prediction model, the method includes:

establishing a prediction model of the accumulative oil discharge amount of the effective hydrocarbon source rock, and acquiring the accumulative oil discharge amount of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected by utilizing the prediction model of the accumulative oil discharge amount of the effective hydrocarbon source rock according to the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and original hydrocarbon-producing capability of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected;

and establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated exhaust gas quantity prediction model, and acquiring the accumulated exhaust gas quantity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected by utilizing the effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated exhaust gas quantity prediction model according to the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected.

In the above prediction method, preferably, when the physical property parameter is the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content, establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock physical property parameter prediction model, and obtaining the physical property parameter of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be measured according to the original hydrocarbon producing capability of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be measured and the effective hydrocarbon source rock physical property parameter prediction model, the method includes:

establishing a prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock of the petroleum reservoir, and acquiring the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the petroleum reservoir of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected by utilizing the prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock of the petroleum reservoir according to the vitrinite reflectivity and the original hydrocarbon-producing capability of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected;

and establishing a prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the natural gas reservoir, and acquiring the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the natural gas reservoir of the effective source rock to be detected by utilizing the prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the natural gas reservoir according to the vitrinite reflectivity and the original hydrocarbon-producing capability of the effective source rock to be detected.

In the above prediction method, preferably, when the physical property parameters are the lower limit values of the discharged oil gas amount and the total organic carbon content, establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock physical property parameter prediction model, and obtaining the physical property parameters of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be measured according to the original hydrocarbon production capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be measured and the effective hydrocarbon source rock physical property parameter prediction model, the method includes:

establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated discharge oil quantity prediction model, and acquiring the accumulated discharge oil quantity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected by utilizing the effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated discharge oil quantity prediction model according to the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected;

establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated exhaust gas quantity prediction model, and acquiring the accumulated exhaust gas quantity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected by utilizing the effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated exhaust gas quantity prediction model according to the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected;

In the above-described prediction method, preferably, the original hydrocarbon-producing ability prediction model is established, including:

and establishing an original hydrocarbon generation capability prediction model according to the hydrocarbon generation capability obtained by carrying out thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different effective source rock samples and the vitrinite reflectivity of the effective source rock thermal simulation samples.

In the above-described prediction method, preferably, the establishing of the original hydrocarbon-producing ability prediction model includes establishing the original hydrocarbon-producing ability prediction model according to the following formula:

wherein HT _o The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected is mg/g; HT is the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be measured and R _o Corresponding hydrocarbon-producing capacity, mg/g; r _o Vitrinite reflectance,%, a, of the effective source rock to be measured ₁ 、a ₂ 、a ₃ 、a ₄ Is an empirical coefficient;

wherein HT = TOC × HI;

TOC is the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock to be detected, wt%, HI is the hydrogen index of the effective source rock to be detected, and mg/g.TOC.

The hydrogen index "g.TOC" in mg/g.TOC means the amount of hydrocarbons (mg) produced per gram of TOC.

In the method, the hydrocarbon-producing capability of the hydrocarbon source rock is characterized by the product of the hydrogen index and the total organic carbon content (HI multiplied by TOC), wherein the hydrocarbon-producing capability of the hydrocarbon source rock is reduced along with the increase of the thermal evolution degree, namely the hydrocarbon-producing capability of the hydrocarbon source rock is smaller along with the increase of the vitrinite reflectance (Ro); meanwhile, the original hydrocarbon-producing capability of organic matters (kerogen) of different types and different TOC hydrocarbon source rocks has larger difference, and the difference has more complex correlation along with Ro, so that a hydrocarbon-producing capability prediction model of the hydrocarbon source rocks can be established by utilizing the hydrocarbon-producing capability of the corresponding hydrocarbon source rocks under different Ro conditions.

The hydrocarbon generation capacity of the immature (Ro < 0.5%) hydrocarbon source rock represents the original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock, and a hydrocarbon source rock original hydrocarbon generation capacity prediction model is established by utilizing the hydrocarbon generation capacity of the immature hydrocarbon source rock at different temperatures (corresponding to different Ros) through thermal simulation; the establishment process of the original hydrocarbon-producing capability prediction model of the source rock comprises the following specific steps: according to thermal simulation experimental data, firstly, models are established by utilizing original hydrocarbon energy (HTo) of different hydrocarbon source rock samples, the same Ro and corresponding HT, parameters in the models are extracted, and then the models are established with the Ro, so that the original HTo evaluation model is established by utilizing HT and Ro.

In the above-described prediction method, preferably, the establishing of the prediction model of the cumulative discharge oil amount of the effective source rock includes:

and establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated discharge oil quantity prediction model according to accumulated discharge oil quantity data obtained by performing thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different effective hydrocarbon source rock samples, the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock thermal simulation samples.

In the above-described prediction method, preferably, establishing an effective source rock cumulative discharge oil amount prediction model includes establishing the effective source rock cumulative discharge oil amount prediction model according to the following formula:

wherein Qpo is the accumulated oil discharge amount of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected, and mg/g rock; r is _o Vitrinite reflectance% of the effective source rock to be measured; TOC is the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected, wt%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa Is the original hydrocarbon-producing capability HT of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be tested _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the nearest effective hydrocarbon source rock sample used in the thermal simulation experiment is mg/g; b ₁ 、b ₂ 、b ₃ 、b ₄ 、b ₅ 、b ₆ 、b ₇ 、b ₈ 、b ₉ 、b ₁₀ 、b ₁₁ 、b ₁₂ 、b ₁₃ 、b ₁₄ 、b ₁₅ 、b ₁₆ 、b ₁₇ Is an empirical parameter; w is a ₁ 0.8% -1.2%, w ₂ 1.4 to 1.8 percent.

The unit "g rock" in the unit mg/g rock of the cumulative oil output Qpo of the source rock to be measured means the cumulative oil output (mg) per gram rock.

The accumulated oil discharge amount of the hydrocarbon source rock is related to TOC, ro and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock, under the same condition, the accumulated oil discharge amount of the hydrocarbon source rock increases along with increase of TOC, decreases along with increase of Ro and increases along with increase of HTo, so that an accumulated oil discharge amount model can be established according to the TOC, ro and HTo of the hydrocarbon source rock;

the accumulated oil discharge amount of the hydrocarbon source rock shows subsection correlation along with the increase of Ro, a subsection model is established according to subsection characteristics, and the specific establishment process comprises the following steps: according to the results of the hydrocarbon source rock thermal simulation experiment, firstly establishing a linear relation model of the accumulated discharged oil and the TOC with the same Ro, extracting parameters in the linear model, and then establishing a model with the Ro, so as to establish an accumulated discharged oil quantity evaluation model by utilizing the TOC and the Ro; for the accumulated discharge oil quantity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample without the thermal simulation experiment to be evaluated, the difference between the original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the evaluated hydrocarbon source rock sample and the original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the known sample for the thermal simulation experiment to be carried out is also considered, so that an accumulated discharge oil quantity prediction model of the hydrocarbon source rock to be tested is established.

In the above prediction method, preferably, establishing a prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir includes:

and establishing a total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model of the effective hydrocarbon source rock of the petroleum reservoir according to the accumulated discharge oil volume data obtained by carrying out thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different effective hydrocarbon source rock samples, the vitrinite reflectivity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock thermal simulation samples and the original hydrocarbon generation capacity.

In the above prediction method, preferably, establishing a prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir includes establishing the prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir according to the following formula:

wherein, TOC _{cutoff_oil} The total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock in the petroleum reservoir is lower limit value, wt%; ro is vitrinite reflectance,%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective source rock sample used in the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective source rock sample to be detected, namely mg/g; c. C ₁ 、c ₂ 、c ₃ 、c ₄ 、c ₅ 、c ₆ 、c ₇ Is an empirical parameter; x is the number of ₁ 0.8% -1.1%, x ₂ 1.2 to 1.4 percent.

The oil produced by the source rocks in the thermal evolution process is firstly retained in the source rocks, the regenerated oil can be discharged only after the oil in the source rocks is saturated, and the oil production amount of the source rocks is related to the TOC, the Ro and the original hydrocarbon production capacity, so that when the oil discharge amount starts in thermal simulation experiment data of different TOC source rocks, the Ro and the original hydrocarbon production capacity of the source rocks obtain a TOC value which is changed along with the Ro and is the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rocks, and when the source rocks are lower than the value, the oil generated by the source rocks at the Ro is retained in the source rocks and cannot be discharged, and is invalid source rocks.

And based on the thermal simulation experiment result, obtaining the TOC lower limit value of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir by utilizing the relation between different TOCs corresponding to the same Ro of different source rocks and the accumulated discharged oil quantity.

And according to the thermal simulation experiment result, acquiring the TOC lower limit value of the petroleum reservoir corresponding to different Ros, and establishing a prediction model of the effective hydrocarbon source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value of the petroleum reservoir according to the ratio of the Ro to the original hydrocarbon generation capacity and the original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the known thermal simulation hydrocarbon source rock sample.

In the above-described prediction method, preferably, establishing an effective source rock cumulative exhaust gas amount prediction model includes:

and establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated exhaust gas quantity prediction model according to accumulated exhaust gas quantity data obtained by performing thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different effective hydrocarbon source rock samples, the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock thermal simulation samples.

In the above prediction method, preferably, establishing an effective source rock cumulative exhaust gas amount prediction model includes establishing the effective source rock cumulative exhaust gas amount prediction model according to the following formula:

wherein Qpg is the accumulated exhaust gas quantity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected, mg/g.rock; ro is vitrinite reflectivity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected,%; TOC is the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected, wt%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample used in the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected, and is mg/g; d is a radical of ₁ 、d ₂ 、d ₃ 、d ₄ 、d ₅ 、d ₆ 、d ₇ 、d ₈ 、d ₉ 、d ₁₀ 、d ₁₁ 、d ₁₂ 、d ₁₃ 、d ₁₄ 、d ₁₅ 、d ₁₆ 、d ₁₇ Is an empirical parameter; y is ₁ 0.8% -1.2%, y ₂ 1.2 to 1.4 percent.

The unit of the accumulated gas discharge quantity Qpg of the source rock to be measured and the unit of the "g rock" in the mg/g rock is the accumulated gas discharge quantity (mg) per gram of rock.

In the above prediction method, preferably, establishing a prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the natural gas reservoir includes:

and establishing a prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock of the natural gas reservoir according to the accumulated exhaust gas volume data obtained by carrying out thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different effective hydrocarbon source rock samples, the vitrinite reflectivity and the original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock thermal simulation samples.

In the above prediction method, preferably, establishing a prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the natural gas reservoir includes establishing the prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the natural gas reservoir according to the following formula:

wherein, TOC _{cutoff_gas} The lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock of the natural gas reservoir is wt%; ro is vitrinite reflectance,%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample used in the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected, and is mg/g; f. of ₁ 、f ₂ 、f ₃ 、f ₄ Is an empirical parameter; z is a radical of ₁ 0.8 to 1.2 percent.

The method is characterized in that the hydrocarbon source rocks generate and produce oil and gas simultaneously in the thermal evolution process, but the Ro and the amount corresponding to the generated oil and gas are different, so that the establishment principle, the specific establishment process, the fitting and the like of the hydrocarbon source rock cumulative emission gas amount prediction model and the effective hydrocarbon source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model of the natural gas reservoir are similar to those of the corresponding oil models.

In another aspect, the present invention further provides an apparatus for predicting effective source rock physical property parameters, where the apparatus for predicting effective source rock physical property parameters includes:

a data acquisition unit: the method is used for obtaining the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and hydrogen index of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected;

an original hydrocarbon generation capability prediction model establishing unit: the method comprises the steps of establishing an original hydrocarbon generation capability prediction model, and obtaining the original hydrocarbon generation capability of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected by utilizing the original hydrocarbon generation capability prediction model according to the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and hydrogen index of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected;

the effective source rock physical property parameter prediction model establishing unit is used for establishing an effective source rock physical property parameter prediction model and acquiring physical property parameters of the effective source rock to be detected according to the original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective source rock to be detected and the effective source rock physical property parameter prediction model;

In the above-described prediction apparatus, preferably, when the property parameter is an amount of discharged oil gas, the effective source rock property parameter prediction model creation unit includes an effective source rock cumulative discharged oil gas amount prediction model creation unit and an effective source rock cumulative discharged gas amount prediction model creation unit;

the effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated discharge oil quantity prediction model establishing unit is used for establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated discharge oil quantity prediction model, and acquiring the accumulated discharge oil quantity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected by utilizing the effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated discharge oil quantity prediction model according to the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected;

the effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated exhaust gas quantity prediction model establishing unit is used for establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated exhaust gas quantity prediction model, and acquiring the accumulated exhaust gas quantity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected by utilizing the effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated exhaust gas quantity prediction model according to the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected.

In the above-described prediction apparatus, preferably, when the property parameter is a lower limit value of total organic carbon content, the effective source rock property parameter prediction model creation unit includes an effective source rock lower limit value prediction model creation unit of an oil deposit and an effective source rock lower limit value prediction model creation unit of a natural gas deposit;

the effective hydrocarbon source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model building unit of the petroleum reservoir is used for building an effective hydrocarbon source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model of the petroleum reservoir, and acquiring the total organic carbon content lower limit value of the petroleum reservoir of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected by utilizing the effective hydrocarbon source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model of the petroleum reservoir according to the vitrinite reflectivity and the original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected;

the effective hydrocarbon source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model building unit of the natural gas reservoir is used for building an effective hydrocarbon source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model of the natural gas reservoir, and obtaining the natural gas reservoir total organic carbon content lower limit value of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected by utilizing the effective hydrocarbon source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model of the natural gas reservoir according to vitrinite reflectivity and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected.

In the above-described prediction apparatus, preferably, when the physical property parameter is the discharged oil gas amount and the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content, the effective source rock physical property parameter prediction model creation unit includes an effective source rock cumulative discharged oil amount prediction model creation unit, an effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model creation unit of the petroleum reservoir, an effective source rock cumulative discharged gas amount prediction model creation unit, and an effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model creation unit of the natural gas reservoir;

the effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model building unit of the petroleum reservoir is used for building an effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model of the petroleum reservoir, and acquiring the total organic carbon content lower limit value of the petroleum reservoir of the effective source rock to be detected by utilizing the effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model of the petroleum reservoir according to the vitrinite reflectivity and the original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective source rock to be detected;

the effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated exhaust gas quantity prediction model establishing unit is used for establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated exhaust gas quantity prediction model, and acquiring the accumulated exhaust gas quantity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected by utilizing the effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated exhaust gas quantity prediction model according to the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected;

In the above prediction apparatus, preferably, the original hydrocarbon-generating capacity prediction model creation unit is specifically configured to create an original hydrocarbon-generating capacity prediction model based on hydrocarbon-generating capacities obtained by performing thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different effective source rock samples and vitrinite reflectivities of the effective source rock thermal simulation samples.

In the above-described prediction apparatus, preferably, the original hydrocarbon-producing ability prediction model creation unit is further configured to create the original hydrocarbon-producing ability prediction model according to the following formula:

wherein HT = TOC × HI;

In the above prediction apparatus, preferably, the effective source rock cumulative drainage oil amount prediction model is specifically used for establishing the effective source rock cumulative drainage oil amount prediction model according to cumulative drainage oil amount data obtained by performing thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different effective source rock samples, the total organic carbon content, the vitrinite reflectance and the raw hydrocarbon generation capability of the effective source rock thermal simulation samples.

In the above-described prediction apparatus, preferably, the effective source rock cumulative discharge oil amount prediction model is further configured to build the effective source rock cumulative discharge oil amount prediction model according to the following formula:

wherein Qpo is the accumulated discharge oil quantity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected, mg/g rock; r _o Vitrinite reflectance% of the effective source rock to be measured; TOC is the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be measured, wt%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa Is the original hydrocarbon-producing capability HT of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be tested _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the nearest effective hydrocarbon source rock sample used in the thermal simulation experiment is mg/g; b ₁ 、b ₂ 、b ₃ 、b ₄ 、b ₅ 、b ₆ 、b ₇ 、b ₈ 、b ₉ 、b ₁₀ 、b ₁₁ 、b ₁₂ 、b ₁₃ 、b ₁₄ 、b ₁₅ 、b ₁₆ 、b ₁₇ Is an empirical parameter; w is a ₁ 0.8% -1.2%, w ₂ 1.4 to 1.8 percent.

In the above prediction apparatus, preferably, the effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit prediction model building unit of the petroleum reservoir is specifically configured to build an effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit prediction model of the petroleum reservoir according to accumulated oil discharge data obtained by performing a thermal simulation experiment on a plurality of different effective source rock samples, a vitrinite reflectance of the effective source rock thermal simulation samples, and an original hydrocarbon generation capability.

In the above prediction apparatus, preferably, the effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model establishing unit of the petroleum reservoir is further configured to establish a effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model of the petroleum reservoir according to the following formula:

wherein, TOC _{cutoff_oil} The total organic carbon content of effective hydrocarbon source rock in petroleum reservoir is lower limit value, wt%; ro is vitrinite reflectance,%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective source rock sample used in the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective source rock sample to be detected, namely mg/g; c. C ₁ 、c ₂ 、c ₃ 、c ₄ 、c ₅ 、c ₆ 、c ₇ Is an empirical parameter; x is the number of ₁ 0.8% -1.1% of x ₂ 1.2 to 1.4 percent.

In the above prediction apparatus, preferably, the effective source rock cumulative exhaust gas amount prediction model is specifically configured to establish the effective source rock cumulative exhaust gas amount prediction model based on cumulative exhaust gas amount data obtained by performing thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different effective source rock samples, the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock thermal simulation samples, the vitrinite reflectance, and the raw hydrocarbon generation capability.

In the above prediction apparatus, preferably, the effective source rock cumulative exhaust gas amount prediction model is further configured to build the effective source rock cumulative exhaust gas amount prediction model according to the following formula:

wherein Qpg is the accumulated exhaust gas quantity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected, and mg/g.rock; ro is vitrinite reflectivity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected,%; TOC is the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be measured, wt%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample used in the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected, and is mg/g; d is a radical of ₁ 、d ₂ 、d ₃ 、d ₄ 、d ₅ 、d ₆ 、d ₇ 、d ₈ 、d ₉ 、d ₁₀ 、d ₁₁ 、d ₁₂ 、d ₁₃ 、d ₁₄ 、d ₁₅ 、d ₁₆ 、d ₁₇ Is an empirical parameter; y is ₁ 0.8% -1.2%, y ₂ 1.2 to 1.4 percent.

In the prediction apparatus described above, preferably, the effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model establishing unit of the natural gas formation reservoir is specifically configured to establish the effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model of the natural gas formation reservoir according to accumulated discharge gas volume data obtained by performing a thermal simulation experiment on a plurality of different effective source rock samples, a vitrinite reflectance of the effective source rock thermal simulation samples, and an original hydrocarbon generation capability.

In the above prediction apparatus, preferably, the lower limit value prediction model building unit of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the natural gas deposit is further configured to build a lower limit value prediction model of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the natural gas deposit according to the following formula:

wherein, TOC _{cutoff_gas} The total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock in the natural gas reservoir is lower limit value (wt%); ro is vitrinite reflectance,%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample used in the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected, and is mg/g; f. of ₁ 、f ₂ 、f ₃ 、f ₄ Is an empirical parameter; z is a radical of ₁ 0.8 to 1.2 percent.

In the present invention, the above-mentioned empirical parameters can be obtained by those skilled in the art according to the needs of field operation.

In yet another aspect, the present invention also provides a computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor when executing the computer program implements the steps of the above method for predicting an effective hydrocarbon source petrophysical parameter.

In yet another aspect, the present invention also provides a computer readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, wherein the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the above method for predicting effective source rock property parameters.

The technical scheme provided by the invention achieves the following beneficial technical effects:

firstly, according to the discharge oil quantity data obtained by carrying out thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different source rock samples and the TOC value, ro value and HI value of the source rock samples, a source rock discharge oil quantity prediction model is established in advance; according to a plurality ofThe method comprises the steps that discharge gas data obtained by carrying out thermal simulation experiments on different hydrocarbon source rock samples and the TOC value, ro value and HI value of the hydrocarbon source rock samples are established in advance, a hydrocarbon source rock discharge gas quantity prediction model is overcome, the defect that the discharge gas quantity can be obtained only by using a low-maturity hydrocarbon source rock sample in the prior art is overcome, and the defect that accumulated discharge gas quantity cannot be obtained by using a hydrocarbon source rock sample subjected to certain thermal evolution in the prior art is overcome; the invention utilizes the original hydrocarbon-producing ability HT _o Value and original hydrocarbon-producing ability HT of known hydrocarbon source rock sample _o The value is corrected, and the defect that extrapolation cannot be carried out in the prior art is overcome, so that quantitative prediction of the oil and gas discharged by the effective hydrocarbon source rock is realized, the evaluation precision of oil and gas resources is improved, and accurate prediction of the discharged oil and gas is also realized under the condition without a thermal simulation sample by applying the effective hydrocarbon source rock discharged oil quantity prediction model and the effective hydrocarbon source rock discharged gas quantity prediction model.

Secondly, compared with the prior art, the method needs to perform thermal simulation on the hydrocarbon source rocks in the same region or layer and different regions or layers to obtain the exhaust oil quantity and the exhaust gas quantity, and needs to perform thermal simulation on the hydrocarbon source rocks in different regions or layers with different original TOC, ro and original hydrocarbon generation capacity HT _o After the thermal simulation is carried out on the hydrocarbon source rock sample, the discharged oil quantity and the discharged gas quantity of the hydrocarbon source rock to be tested can be obtained, and the scheme with long time and high cost is compared.

Thirdly, the hydrocarbon source rock discharged oil gas prediction model provided by the invention can realize prediction of discharged oil gas of hydrocarbon source rocks with different TOC, overcomes the defect that the discharged oil gas quantities of the hydrocarbon source rocks with different TOC cannot be predicted respectively in the prior art, and improves the prediction precision of the discharged oil gas quantities of the hydrocarbon source rocks.

Finally, compared with the prior art that the TOC lower limit value of the effective source rock is obtained through analyzing the source rock core sample and numerical simulation and experimental analysis, the method can accurately obtain the TOC lower limit value of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir and the effective source rock of the natural gas reservoir by using an evaluation model of the TOC lower limit value of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir and an evaluation model of the TOC lower limit value of the effective source rock of the natural gas reservoir after obtaining the TOC value, ro value and HI value of the source rock sample to be detected, and overcomes the defect that the effective TOC lower limit value of the source rock cannot be obtained without a closed coring sample in the prior art. Meanwhile, the effective hydrocarbon source rock TOC lower limit evaluation model for the petroleum and natural gas reservoir provided by the invention can respectively carry out quantitative evaluation on the effective hydrocarbon source rock TOC lower limit of the petroleum and natural gas reservoir, and overcomes the defect that the prior art can not respectively carry out evaluation on the effective hydrocarbon source rock TOC lower limit of the petroleum and natural gas reservoir.

In conclusion, the technical scheme provided by the invention realizes quantitative prediction of the effective hydrocarbon source rock oil and gas discharge amount and/or the effective hydrocarbon source rock TOC lower limit value, improves the prediction precision and efficiency of the hydrocarbon source rock oil and gas discharge amount and the favorable area, and provides a reliable basis for effective hydrocarbon source rock distribution area prediction and oil and gas resource evaluation.

Drawings

In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art that other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without creative efforts.

FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for predicting effective hydrocarbon source rock hydrocarbon discharge and a TOC lower limit value in an embodiment of the invention;

FIG. 2 is a graph of simulated temperature versus Ro for an embodiment of the present invention;

FIG. 3 shows the hydrocarbon-producing capability HT and the original hydrocarbon-producing capability HT of the embodiment of the present invention _o A relationship graph;

FIG. 4 is a graph of cumulative oil output of a source rock as a function of TOC and Ro according to an embodiment of the present invention;

FIG. 5 is a graph showing a relationship between a model calculation value of cumulative oil discharge amount of a source rock and an experimental value in an embodiment of the present invention;

FIG. 6 is a graph of cumulative gas emissions from source rock as a function of TOC and Ro in an embodiment of the invention;

FIG. 7 is a graph showing a relationship between a calculated value and an experimental value of a model of cumulative exhaust gas amount of a source rock according to an embodiment of the present invention;

FIG. 8 is a graph of effective Source rock TOC lower bound versus Ro for an oil reservoir in an embodiment of the present invention;

FIG. 9 is a graph of effective Source rock TOC lower bound versus Ro for a Natural gas reservoir in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;

fig. 10 is a schematic structural diagram of a prediction device for effective hydrocarbon source rock discharge oil gas quantity and TOC lower limit value in the embodiment of the invention.

Detailed Description

The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be obtained by a person skilled in the art without making any creative effort based on the embodiments in the present invention, belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

The oil and gas discharge amount, the migration amount and the accumulation amount of effective hydrocarbon source rocks are key parameters in conventional oil and gas resource evaluation, wherein the discharged oil and gas amount determines the supply amount of oil and gas reservoirs and is the key for determining whether enough oil and gas reservoirs can be formed. In the conventional oil and gas resource evaluation, the distribution of effective source rocks and the amount of oil and gas discharged are firstly determined, and the TOC lower limit value of the effective source rocks is a key parameter for accurately determining the distribution of the effective source rocks. Therefore, the discharged oil-gas amount and the TOC lower limit value of the effective hydrocarbon source rock are the key of oil-gas resource evaluation (prediction), and the requirements of the oil-gas resource evaluation can be met only by accurately and quantitatively determining the TOC lower limit value and the discharged oil-gas amount of the effective hydrocarbon source rock.

In order to overcome the defects that the effective hydrocarbon source rock oil and gas discharge amount and the TOC lower limit value cannot be accurately and quantitatively predicted in the prior art, the invention provides a prediction scheme of the effective hydrocarbon source rock oil and gas discharge amount and the TOC lower limit value, and the effective hydrocarbon source rock oil and gas discharge amount and the TOC lower limit value can be accurately and quantitatively evaluated. The following describes a scheme for predicting the effective hydrocarbon source rock discharge amount and the TOC lower limit value according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for predicting effective hydrocarbon source rock oil and gas discharge and a TOC lower limit value provided in an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 1, the method includes the following steps:

s1: acquiring a total organic carbon content TOC value, a vitrinite reflectance Ro value and a hydrogen index HI value of a source rock to be detected;

s2: establishing a raw Hydrocarbon Generation capability HT _o Predicting the model, and utilizing original hydrocarbon generation capacity HT according to TOC value, ro value and HI value of the source rock to be measured _o A prediction model for obtaining the original hydrocarbon generation capacity HT of the source rock to be measured _o A value;

s3: establishing a model for predicting the accumulated oil discharge of the source rock, and determining the TOC value and Ro value of the source rock to be detected and the original hydrocarbon generation capacity HT _o The method comprises the steps of obtaining the accumulative oil discharge amount of the source rocks to be detected by utilizing a model for predicting the accumulative oil discharge amount of the source rocks;

s4: establishing a prediction model of TOC lower limit value of effective source rock of petroleum reservoir, and determining the value of Ro and original hydrocarbon-producing capability HT of the source rock to be detected _o Acquiring the TOC lower limit value of the petroleum reservoir of the effective source rock to be detected by using a prediction model of the effective source rock TOC lower limit value of the petroleum reservoir;

s5: establishing a model for predicting the accumulated exhaust gas amount of the source rock, and determining the TOC value and Ro value of the source rock to be detected and the original hydrocarbon generation capacity HT _o Obtaining the accumulative exhaust gas quantity of the source rock to be detected by utilizing a source rock accumulative exhaust gas quantity prediction model;

s6: establishing a model for predicting TOC lower limit value of effective source rock of natural gas reservoir, and determining the value of Ro and original hydrocarbon generation capacity HT of the source rock to be detected _o And acquiring the TOC lower limit value of the effective hydrocarbon source formation to be detected by using the prediction model of the effective hydrocarbon source formation TOC lower limit value of the natural gas formation.

The main body for executing the method for predicting the effective hydrocarbon source rock discharge amount and the TOC lower limit value shown in fig. 1 may be a computer. As can be seen from the flow shown in FIG. 1, the prediction method provided by the embodiment of the invention can realize quantitative prediction of the effective hydrocarbon source rock oil-gas discharge amount and the effective hydrocarbon source rock TOC lower limit value, and improve the prediction accuracy and efficiency of the hydrocarbon source rock oil-gas discharge amount and the favorable area.

The following describes in detail the steps involved in the method for predicting the effective hydrocarbon source rock hydrocarbon output and the TOC lower limit value according to the embodiment of the present invention with reference to fig. 2 to 9.

1. Before each model is established, a thermal simulation experiment is carried out on the hydrocarbon source rock sample.

Collecting a plurality of groups of hydrocarbon source rock samples with different TOC values of target layers in a research area, wherein the Ro value is less than 0.5%, the weight of the hydrocarbon source rock sample collected at each sampling point is more than 40kg, and if the hydrocarbon source rock sample is an outcrop hydrocarbon source rock sample, the collection position of the hydrocarbon source rock sample is below 5m of the ground, and collecting an undeweathered hydrocarbon source rock sample; in this embodiment, the multiple groups of hydrocarbon source rock samples are outcrop hydrocarbon source rock samples collected from 7 sections of the deltoid basin, 9 groups of hydrocarbon source rock samples with different TOCs and Ro less than 0.5% are respectively marked as No.1 to No.9, each group of hydrocarbon source rock samples are respectively crushed into 40 to 100 meshes, preferably 60 meshes, and are fully and uniformly mixed, and then each group of uniformly mixed hydrocarbon source rock samples are divided into 12 parts, wherein each part is more than 3kg in weight.

The organic carbon content (TOC), hydrogen Index (HI) and vitrinite reflectance (Ro) of each set of source rock samples were measured separately and the experimental data obtained are detailed in table 1 below.

Wherein the TOC of each group of source rock samples is measured according to the national standard GB/T19145-2003 determination of total organic carbon in sedimentary rocks; HI was measured according to industry Standard SYT 5735-1995 geochemical evaluation method for continental Source rock; ro is measured according to the industry standard SY/T5124-2012 Mimosoplast reflectance determination method in sedimentary rock.

TABLE 1 characteristic parameters of the source rock sample of the target zone of the research area

The thermal simulation experiments in this embodiment all adopt a semi-open experiment system with a preset pressure of 5MPa, a preset pressure of 7MPa for hydrocarbon discharge and different preset temperatures. The thermal simulation experiment specifically comprises the following steps: and (3) putting the hydrocarbon source rock sample into a reaction kettle, repeatedly compacting the hydrocarbon source rock sample under the pressure of 20MPa, weighing the mass of the hydrocarbon source rock sample in the reaction kettle before simulation, vacuumizing the reaction kettle and injecting He. The number of the preset temperature points in the thermal simulation experiment is 11, namely 250 ℃, 300 ℃, 320 ℃, 335 ℃, 350 ℃, 360 ℃, 390 ℃, 440 ℃, 500 ℃, 540 ℃ and 580 ℃, and the preset temperatures cover different stages from the beginning to the end of oil gas generation. For a first preset temperature point with the temperature of 250 ℃, before the simulation temperature is 200 ℃, the adopted programmed heating rate is 20 ℃/d; the simulation temperature is 200-250 ℃, and the temperature programming rate is 5 ℃/d; for the 2 nd to 11 th preset temperature points, before the simulated temperature reaches the temperature of the preset temperature point before the target preset temperature point, the adopted programmed heating rate is 20 ℃/d, and when the simulated temperature is between the temperature of the preset temperature point before the target preset temperature point and the temperature of the target preset temperature point, the adopted programmed heating rate is 5 ℃/d; and after the simulation temperature reaches the preset temperature, keeping the preset temperature and keeping the temperature for 10 hours, and repeating the steps to complete the thermal simulation of all the preset temperature points. After the thermal simulation at each preset temperature point was completed, the TOC, HI, ro, etc. parameters of the extracted residue were measured, as shown in table 2 below. And the oil gas discharged in the thermal simulation process is used for calculating the discharged oil gas of the rock with unit mass.

TABLE 2 TOC, HI, ro values of thermal simulation residues of samples of source rock of the target zone of the study

And acquiring the average value of Ro after thermal simulation of different hydrocarbon source rock samples at the same preset temperature in a thermal simulation experiment, and establishing the relationship between the pyrolysis simulation temperature and Ro. The oil gas discharge amount of the thermal simulation of the source rock is related to Ro, and in order to facilitate the corresponding research on the thermal evolution degree of the source rock under the formation condition, the simulation temperature is converted into a corresponding Ro value according to the following formula (1).

R _o ＝pe ^qT Formula (1);

in formula (1): ro is vitrinite reflectance,%; t is the pyrolysis simulation temperature, DEG C; p and q are empirical coefficients, which can be: 0.13797, 0.005667.

In this embodiment, a graph of a relationship between the average value of Ro and the pyrolysis simulation temperature after thermal simulation of different source rock samples at the same preset temperature is shown in fig. 2.

2. And establishing each model according to the data obtained in the thermal simulation experiment process.

1. Establishing original hydrocarbon generation capacity HT by using the HI value and the TOC value of the source rock obtained before thermal simulation and the Ro value, the HI value and the TOC value of the source rock obtained at different simulation temperatures _o And (4) predicting the model.

The reason why the source rock sample having Ro value of less than 0.5% is selected as the plurality of different source rock samples is to establish original hydrocarbon-generating ability HT _o And (4) predicting the model. The specific reason is as follows: the organic matter in the hydrocarbon source rock with Ro less than 0.5 percent basically has not undergone oil-gas conversion, and can be called as a raw state, and the evaluation of the discharged oil-gas quantity needs to adopt a raw hydrocarbon-producing capacity HT _o And (4) correcting, wherein the hydrocarbon source rock in the actual stratum is not necessarily in an original state, and the original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the discharged oil gas needs to be corrected.

The original hydrocarbon generation capacity HT shown in the following formula (2) is established according to the TOC and HI of the source rock before thermal simulation and the experimental data of the thermal simulation _o And the prediction model, HT, is the product of TOC and HI of the hydrocarbon source rock and represents the hydrocarbon generation capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock.

In formula (2), HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the source rock to be detected is mg/g; HT is the hydrocarbon source rock and R to be measured _o Corresponding hydrocarbon-producing capacity (namely HT corresponding to the reflectivity of the vitrinite body of the hydrocarbon source rock being Ro), mg/g; r _o Vitrinite reflectance,%, a, of the source rock to be measured ₁ 、a ₂ 、a ₃ 、a ₄ The empirical coefficients are respectively 0.0668, 4.5715, -3.9872 and 2.396;

wherein HT = TOC × HI;

TOC is the total organic carbon content of the source rock to be detected, wt%, HI is the hydrogen index of the source rock to be detected, and mg/g. TOC.

In specific implementation, the scheme provided by the embodiment of the invention overcomes the defect that related discharged oil gas quantity can only be obtained by carrying out simulation experiments in the prior art, and establishes the relation between the hydrocarbon source rocks HT and Ro of different kerogen types (original hydrocarbon generation capacity HT) _o HT to Ro is shown in FIG. 3), HT is the original hydrocarbon-producing ability _o The change influence of TOC and HI is considered in the prediction model, and the original hydrocarbon generation capacity HT of different kerogen type hydrocarbon source rocks under the conditions of different evolution degrees is solved _o The prediction problem is solved, and the problem that the original hydrocarbon generation capability HT can be recovered only according to the same kerogen type in the prior art is solved _o The defect of (2).

In specific implementation, the kerogen types refer to different oil production and gas production capacities caused by different organic matter components in the source rock, and include type I, type II and type III, wherein the type I kerogen mainly takes raw oil, the type II kerogen symbiotically takes oil gas, and the type III kerogen mainly takes gas production.

In specific implementation, since the hydrocarbon-producing capability of the source rock decreases with the increase of Ro, when Ro is more than 1.0%, HT of the source rock is equal to original hydrocarbon-producing capability HT _o Restoration of original hydrocarbon-bearing capacity HT of source rock using HT and Ro _o Increases with increasing Ro, and thus, when Ro is less than 1.0%, the original hydrocarbon-producing ability HT of the recovered source rock _o The precision is high.

2. The data of the discharged oil gas quantity obtained according to the thermal simulation experiment and the TOC value, ro value and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the thermal simulation sample of the hydrocarbon source rockHT _o Values, pre-established for Ro, TOC, raw hydrocarbon-producing capability HT _o And (3) evaluating models (a hydrocarbon source rock discharge oil quantity prediction model and a hydrocarbon source rock discharge gas quantity prediction model) of the discharge oil quantity of different hydrocarbon source rocks under different conditions.

Discharge oil amount of source rock, ro, TOC and original hydrocarbon generation capacity HT of source rock _o In this connection, a model for predicting the cumulative amount of oil discharged from the source rock is established based on the results of the thermal simulation experiment as shown in the following equation (3) and fig. 4.

In the formula (3), qpo is the accumulated discharge oil amount of the hydrocarbon source rock to be detected, mg/g rock; r _o The vitrinite reflectivity of the source rock to be detected is percent; TOC is the total organic carbon content of the source rock to be measured, wt%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa Is the original hydrocarbon-producing capability HT of the hydrocarbon source rock sample to be tested _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample of the closest thermal simulation experiment at this time is mg/g; b ₁ 、b ₂ 、b ₃ 、b ₄ 、b ₅ 、b ₆ 、b ₇ 、b ₈ 、b ₉ 、b ₁₀ 、b ₁₁ 、b ₁₂ 、b ₁₃ 、b ₁₄ 、b ₁₅ 、b ₁₆ 、b ₁₇ The empirical parameters are respectively 1.0122, 18.872, -22.784, 6.904, -6.507, 4.303, -0.632, -2.404, 7.228, -0.704, -2.244, -0.93, 4.715, -0.0065, -4.138, 0.065 and-0.349; w is a ₁ 0.8% -1.2%, w ₂ 1.4 to 1.8 percent.

In this example, w ₁ 1.0%, w ₂ It was 1.675%.

In the specific embodiment, according to the thermal simulation experiment result, the TOC values (shown in the table 2) of different Ro of different obtained hydrocarbon source rock samples are calculated by using the formula (3), and compared with the corresponding accumulated oil discharge obtained by the thermal simulation experiment, a relation graph of the model calculated value of the accumulated oil discharge of the hydrocarbon source rock and the experimental value is shown in fig. 5, as can be seen from fig. 5, the average value of the absolute errors of the experimental value and the model calculated value is 0.001mg/g · rock, and the average value of the absolute errors is 0.823mg/g · rock, so that the coincidence rate of the calculation result of the model calculated value of the accumulated oil discharge of the hydrocarbon source rock is high.

Emission gas of source rock and Ro, TOC and original hydrocarbon generation capability HT of source rock _o In this connection, a model for predicting the cumulative exhaust gas amount of the source rock as shown in the following equation (4) and fig. 6 is established based on the thermal simulation experimental data.

In the formula (4), qpg is the accumulated exhaust gas volume of the hydrocarbon source rock to be detected, mg/g.rock; ro is vitrinite reflectivity of the hydrocarbon source rock to be detected,%; TOC is the total organic carbon content of the source rock to be measured, wt%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample of the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected, and is mg/g; d is a radical of ₁ 、d ₂ 、d ₃ 、d ₄ 、d ₅ 、d ₆ 、d ₇ 、d ₈ 、d ₉ 、d ₁₀ 、d ₁₁ 、d ₁₂ 、d ₁₃ 、d ₁₄ 、d ₁₅ 、d ₁₆ 、d ₁₇ Empirical parameters of 1.00086, 1.6821, -1.9765, 0.5819, -0.7199, -0.3481, 5.3706, -4.9691, -0.3503, 6.812, 0.03031, -0.1498, 0.9386, 0.7946, 0.1757, -0.8851 and 0.7326 respectively; y is ₁ 0.8% -1.2%, y ₂ 1.2 to 1.4 percent.

In this example, y ₁ 1.0%, y ₂ It was 1.25%.

In the specific embodiment, according to the results of the thermal simulation experiment, the TOC values (shown in table 2 above) of different Ro of different source rock samples are obtained, the cumulative exhaust gas amount is calculated by using the formula (4), and compared with the corresponding exhaust gas amount obtained by the thermal simulation experiment, the relationship between the calculated value and the experimental value of the model of the cumulative exhaust gas amount of the source rock is shown in fig. 7, and it can be seen from fig. 7 thatThe absolute error between the experimental value and the calculated value of the model is 0.001m ³ Absolute value average of absolute error of 0.4204m ³ /t·rock。

In specific implementation, the prediction method provided by the embodiment of the invention can realize accurate prediction of accumulated discharged oil gas amount through the models shown in the formulas (3) and (4).

3. The amount of oil and gas discharged and the original hydrocarbon-producing capacity HT of a hydrocarbon source rock sample obtained from a thermal simulation experiment _o And establishing effective hydrocarbon source rock TOC lower limit value evaluation models (an effective hydrocarbon source rock TOC lower limit value evaluation model of the oil reservoir and an effective hydrocarbon source rock TOC lower limit value evaluation model of the natural gas reservoir) of the oil and natural gas reservoir.

Cumulative oil output and Ro, original hydrocarbon production capacity HT obtained from thermal simulation experiment _o Establishing a model for evaluating the TOC lower limit value of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir as shown in the following formula (5) and figure 8:

in formula (5), TOC _{cutoff_oil} The total organic carbon content of effective hydrocarbon source rock in petroleum reservoir is lower limit value, wt%; ro is vitrinite reflectance,%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample of the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected, and is mg/g; c. C ₁ 、c ₂ 、c ₃ 、c ₄ 、c ₅ 、c ₆ 、c ₇ The empirical parameters are respectively 0.6184, -2.2080, 11.1853, -25.0319, 14.4632, 0.0264 and 0.6196; x is the number of ₁ 0.8% -1.1% of x ₂ 1.2 to 1.4 percent.

In this example, x ₁ 1.0%, x ₂ It was 1.25%.

Cumulative gas discharge rate and Ro, original hydrocarbon generation capability HT obtained from thermal simulation experiment _o Data to establish effective TOC of source rock for natural gas reserves as shown in equation (6) below and FIG. 9Limiting value evaluation model:

in formula (6), TOC _{cutoff_gas} The lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock of the natural gas reservoir is wt%; ro is vitrinite reflectance,%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample of the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample to be tested, namely mg/g; f. of ₁ 、f ₂ 、f ₃ 、f ₄ The empirical parameters are-11.3558, 0.1605, -0.1005 and 0.5844 respectively; z is a radical of formula ₁ 0.8 to 1.2 percent.

In this example, z ₁ Is 1.0%.

Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the invention also provides a device for predicting the oil gas discharge amount and the TOC lower limit value of the effective hydrocarbon source rock. Fig. 10 is a schematic structural diagram of an apparatus for predicting the effective hydrocarbon source rock discharge oil gas amount and the TOC lower limit value according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 10, the device for predicting the effective hydrocarbon source rock discharge amount and the TOC lower limit value includes:

the data acquisition unit 101: the method is used for obtaining the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and hydrogen index of the source rock to be detected;

the raw hydrocarbon generation capability prediction model creation unit 102: the method comprises the steps of establishing an original hydrocarbon generation capability prediction model, and obtaining the original hydrocarbon generation capability of the source rock to be detected by utilizing the original hydrocarbon generation capability prediction model according to the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and hydrogen index of the source rock to be detected;

the hydrocarbon source rock cumulative discharge oil amount prediction model creation unit 103: the method comprises the steps of establishing a model for predicting the accumulative discharge oil quantity of the source rock, and acquiring the accumulative discharge oil quantity of the source rock to be detected by utilizing the model for predicting the accumulative discharge oil quantity of the source rock according to the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the source rock to be detected;

the effective hydrocarbon source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model building unit 104 of petroleum reservoir: the method comprises the steps of establishing a prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir to be detected, and obtaining the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the petroleum reservoir of the effective source rock to be detected by utilizing the prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir to be detected according to the vitrinite reflectivity and the original hydrocarbon-producing capability of the source rock to be detected;

the hydrocarbon source rock cumulative exhaust gas amount prediction model creation unit 105: the system comprises a prediction model, a data processing module and a data processing module, wherein the prediction model is used for establishing a hydrocarbon source rock accumulated exhaust gas quantity prediction model, and acquiring the accumulated exhaust gas quantity of the hydrocarbon source rock to be detected by utilizing the hydrocarbon source rock accumulated exhaust gas quantity prediction model according to the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock to be detected;

the effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model building unit 106 of the natural gas reservoir: the method is used for establishing a prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the natural gas reservoir, and acquiring the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the natural gas reservoir of the effective source rock to be detected by utilizing the prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the natural gas reservoir according to the vitrinite reflectivity and the original hydrocarbon-producing capability of the source rock to be detected.

In an embodiment, the raw hydrocarbon-producing capability prediction model building unit is specifically configured to:

and establishing an original hydrocarbon generation capability prediction model according to the hydrocarbon generation capability obtained by carrying out thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different hydrocarbon source rock samples and the vitrinite reflectivity of the hydrocarbon source rock thermal simulation samples.

In an embodiment, the raw hydrocarbon production capability prediction model creation unit is further configured to create the raw hydrocarbon production capability prediction model according to the following formula:

wherein HT _o The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the source rock to be detected is mg/g; HT is the source rock to be measured and R _o Corresponding hydrocarbon-producing capacity, mg/g; r _o Vitrinite reflectance,%, a, of the source rock to be tested ₁ 、a ₂ 、a ₃ 、a ₄ Is an empirical coefficient;

wherein HT = TOC × HI;

In an embodiment, the model building unit for predicting cumulative oil discharge amount of hydrocarbon source rock is specifically configured to:

and establishing a model for predicting the accumulative discharge oil quantity of the hydrocarbon source rock according to the accumulative discharge oil quantity data obtained by carrying out thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different hydrocarbon source rock samples, the total organic carbon content of the hydrocarbon source rock thermal simulation samples, the vitrinite reflectivity and the original hydrocarbon generation capacity.

In an embodiment, the model establishing unit is further configured to establish the model of predicting cumulative oil discharge amount of the source rock according to the following formula:

wherein Qpo is the accumulated discharge oil quantity of the hydrocarbon source rock to be detected, mg/g rock; r _o The vitrinite reflectivity of the source rock to be detected is percent; TOC is the total organic carbon content of the source rock to be measured, wt%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa Is the original hydrocarbon-producing capability HT of the hydrocarbon source rock sample to be tested _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample of the closest thermal simulation experiment at this time is mg/g; b ₁ 、b ₂ 、b ₃ 、b ₄ 、b ₅ 、b ₆ 、b ₇ 、b ₈ 、b ₉ 、b ₁₀ 、b ₁₁ 、b ₁₂ 、b ₁₃ 、b ₁₄ 、b ₁₅ 、b ₁₆ 、b ₁₇ Is an empirical parameter; w is a ₁ 0.8% -1.2%, w ₂ 1.4 to 1.8 percent.

In an embodiment, the effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model building unit of the petroleum reservoir is specifically configured to:

and establishing a lower limit value prediction model of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir according to the accumulated discharge oil quantity data obtained by carrying out thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different source rock samples, the vitrinite reflectivity of the source rock thermal simulation samples and the original hydrocarbon generation capacity.

In an embodiment, the model establishing unit for predicting the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir is further configured to establish a model for predicting the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir according to the following formula:

wherein, TOC _{cutoff_oil} The total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock in the petroleum reservoir is lower limit value, wt%; ro is vitrinite reflectance,%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample of the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected, and is mg/g; c. C ₁ 、c ₂ 、c ₃ 、c ₄ 、c ₅ 、c ₆ 、c ₇ Is an empirical parameter; x is the number of ₁ 0.8% -1.1% of x ₂ 1.2 to 1.4 percent.

In an embodiment, the hydrocarbon source rock cumulative exhaust gas amount prediction model establishing unit is specifically configured to:

and establishing a hydrocarbon source rock accumulated exhaust gas quantity prediction model according to accumulated exhaust gas quantity data obtained by performing thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different hydrocarbon source rock samples, the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock thermal simulation samples.

In an embodiment, the model building unit is further configured to build the model of cumulative exhaust gas amount prediction of the source rock according to the following formula:

wherein Qpg is the accumulated exhaust gas quantity of the hydrocarbon source rock to be detected, mg/g.rock; ro is vitrinite reflectivity of the hydrocarbon source rock to be detected,%; TOC is the total organic carbon content of the source rock to be measured, wt%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample of the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected, and is mg/g; d ₁ 、d ₂ 、d ₃ 、d ₄ 、d ₅ 、d ₆ 、d ₇ 、d ₈ 、d ₉ 、d ₁₀ 、d ₁₁ 、d ₁₂ 、d ₁₃ 、d ₁₄ 、d ₁₅ 、d ₁₆ 、d ₁₇ Is an empirical parameter; y is ₁ 0.8% -1.2%, y ₂ 1.2 to 1.4 percent.

In an embodiment, the model building unit for predicting the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the natural gas reservoir is specifically configured to:

and establishing a lower limit value prediction model of the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock of the natural gas reservoir according to accumulated exhaust gas volume data obtained by carrying out thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different hydrocarbon source rock samples, the vitrinite reflectivity and the original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock thermal simulation samples.

In an embodiment, the effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit prediction model building unit of the natural gas deposit is further configured to build an effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit prediction model of the natural gas deposit according to the following formula:

wherein, TOC _{cutoff_gas} The lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock of the natural gas reservoir is wt%; ro is specularBulk reflectance,%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample of the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected, and is mg/g; f. of ₁ 、f ₂ 、f ₃ 、f ₄ Is an empirical parameter; z is a radical of formula ₁ 0.8 to 1.2 percent.

The embodiment of the invention also provides computer equipment which comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program which is stored on the memory and can run on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to realize the steps of the method for predicting the effective hydrocarbon source rock discharge oil gas quantity and the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content.

Embodiments of the present invention further provide a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, where the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method for predicting the effective hydrocarbon source rock output oil gas amount and the lower value of the total organic carbon content.

The above description is only exemplary of the invention and should not be taken as limiting the scope of the invention, so that the invention is intended to cover all modifications and equivalents of the embodiments described herein. In addition, the technical features and the technical inventions of the present invention, the technical features and the technical inventions, and the technical inventions can be freely combined and used.

Claims

1. A method for predicting effective source rock property parameters, wherein the method for predicting the effective source rock property parameters comprises the following steps:

the physical property parameters comprise lower limit values of discharged oil gas quantity and/or total organic carbon content;

when the physical property parameter is the discharged oil and gas amount, establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock physical property parameter prediction model, and acquiring the physical property parameter of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected according to the original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected and the effective hydrocarbon source rock physical property parameter prediction model, wherein the method comprises the following steps:

the method for establishing the prediction model of the accumulated discharge oil quantity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock comprises the following steps:

establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated discharge oil quantity prediction model according to accumulated discharge oil quantity data obtained by performing thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different effective hydrocarbon source rock samples, the total organic carbon content, vitrinite reflectivity and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock thermal simulation samples;

the effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated discharge oil quantity prediction model is established according to the following formula:

wherein Qpo is the accumulated discharge oil quantity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected, mg/g rock; r _o The vitrinite reflectivity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected is percent; TOC to be measuredTotal organic carbon content of available source rock, wt%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa Is the original hydrocarbon-producing capability HT of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be tested _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the nearest effective hydrocarbon source rock sample used in the thermal simulation experiment is mg/g; b ₁ 、b ₂ 、b ₃ 、b ₄ 、b ₅ 、b ₆ 、b ₇ 、b ₈ 、b ₉ 、b ₁₀ 、b ₁₁ 、b ₁₂ 、b ₁₃ 、b ₁₄ 、b ₁₅ 、b ₁₆ 、b ₁₇ Is an empirical parameter; w is a ₁ 0.8% -1.2%, w ₂ 1.4 to 1.8 percent.

2. The prediction method according to claim 1, wherein when the property parameter is a lower limit value of a total organic carbon content, establishing an effective source rock property parameter prediction model, and obtaining the property parameter of the effective source rock to be tested according to an original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective source rock to be tested and the effective source rock property parameter prediction model, comprises:

3. The prediction method according to claim 1, wherein when the physical property parameters are the lower limit values of the discharged oil gas amount and the total organic carbon content, establishing an effective hydrocarbon source rock physical property parameter prediction model, and obtaining the physical property parameters of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be measured according to the original hydrocarbon production capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be measured and the effective hydrocarbon source rock physical property parameter prediction model, comprises:

4. A prediction method according to any one of claims 1-3, wherein establishing a raw hydrocarbon-producing capability prediction model comprises:

5. The prediction method of claim 4, wherein the raw hydrocarbon-bearing capability prediction model is built according to the following formula:

wherein HT = TOC × HI;

6. The prediction method according to claim 2 or 3, wherein establishing a prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir comprises:

7. The prediction method according to claim 6, wherein the lower limit value prediction model of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir is established according to the following formula:

wherein, TOC _{cutoff_oil} The total organic carbon content of effective hydrocarbon source rock in petroleum reservoir is lower limit value, wt%; ro is vitrinite reflectance,%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample used in the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected, and is mg/g; c. C ₁ 、c ₂ 、c ₃ 、c ₄ 、c ₅ 、c ₆ 、c ₇ Is an empirical parameter; x is a radical of a fluorine atom ₁ 0.8% -1.1% of x ₂ 1.2 to 1.4 percent.

8. The prediction method according to claim 1 or 3, wherein establishing an effective source rock cumulative exhaust gas amount prediction model comprises:

9. The prediction method of claim 8, wherein the effective source rock cumulative exhaust gas quantity prediction model is established according to the following formula:

wherein Qpg is the accumulated exhaust gas quantity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected, mg/g.rock; ro is vitrinite reflectivity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected,%; TOC is the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be measured, wt%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample used in the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected, and is mg/g; d ₁ 、d ₂ 、d ₃ 、d ₄ 、d ₅ 、d ₆ 、d ₇ 、d ₈ 、d ₉ 、d ₁₀ 、d ₁₁ 、d ₁₂ 、d ₁₃ 、d ₁₄ 、d ₁₅ 、d ₁₆ 、d ₁₇ Is an empirical parameter; y is ₁ 0.8% -1.2%, y ₂ 1.2 to 1.4 percent.

10. A prediction method according to claim 2 or 3, wherein establishing a lower prediction model of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the natural gas reservoir comprises:

11. The prediction method according to claim 10, wherein the lower limit prediction model of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the natural gas formation is established according to the following formula:

12. An effective source rock physical property parameter prediction device, wherein the effective source rock physical property parameter prediction device comprises:

when the physical property parameter is the discharged oil and gas amount, the effective hydrocarbon source rock physical property parameter prediction model establishing unit comprises an effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated discharged oil amount prediction model establishing unit and an effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated discharged gas amount prediction model establishing unit;

the effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated discharge oil quantity prediction model is specifically used for establishing the effective hydrocarbon source rock accumulated discharge oil quantity prediction model according to accumulated discharge oil quantity data obtained by performing a thermal simulation experiment on a plurality of different effective hydrocarbon source rock samples, the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock thermal simulation samples, the vitrinite reflectivity and the original hydrocarbon generation capacity;

wherein the effective source rock cumulative discharge oil quantity prediction model is further used for establishing the effective source rock cumulative discharge oil quantity prediction model according to the following formula:

wherein Qpo is the accumulated oil discharge amount of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected, and mg/g rock; r _o Vitrinite reflectance% of the effective source rock to be measured; TOC is the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected, wt%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa Original hydrocarbon-producing capability HT for the effective source rock sample to be tested _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the nearest effective hydrocarbon source rock sample used in the thermal simulation experiment is mg/g; b ₁ 、b ₂ 、b ₃ 、b ₄ 、b ₅ 、b ₆ 、b ₇ 、b ₈ 、b ₉ 、b ₁₀ 、b ₁₁ 、b ₁₂ 、b ₁₃ 、b ₁₄ 、b ₁₅ 、b ₁₆ 、b ₁₇ Is an empirical parameter; w is a ₁ 0.8% -1.2%, w ₂ 1.4 to 1.8 percent.

13. The prediction apparatus according to claim 12, wherein when the property parameter is a lower limit value of total organic carbon content, the effective source rock property parameter prediction model creation unit includes an effective source rock lower limit value prediction model creation unit of a petroleum deposit and an effective source rock lower limit value prediction model creation unit of a natural gas deposit;

14. The prediction device according to claim 12, wherein when the property parameter is an emitted oil gas amount and a total organic carbon content lower limit value, the effective source rock property parameter prediction model creation unit includes an effective source rock cumulative emitted oil amount prediction model creation unit, an effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model creation unit of a petroleum reservoir, an effective source rock cumulative emitted gas amount prediction model creation unit, and an effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model creation unit of a natural gas reservoir;

the effective hydrocarbon source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model building unit of the natural gas reservoir is used for building an effective hydrocarbon source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model of the natural gas reservoir, and acquiring the natural gas reservoir total organic carbon content lower limit value of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected by utilizing the effective hydrocarbon source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model of the natural gas reservoir according to vitrinite reflectivity and original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected.

15. The prediction apparatus according to any one of claims 12 to 14, wherein the raw hydrocarbon-producing capability prediction model creation unit is specifically configured to create a raw hydrocarbon-producing capability prediction model based on hydrocarbon-producing capabilities obtained by performing thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different effective source rock samples and vitrinite reflectivities of the effective source rock thermal simulation samples.

16. The prediction apparatus of claim 15, wherein the raw hydrocarbon-producing capability prediction model building unit is further configured to build the raw hydrocarbon-producing capability prediction model according to the following equation:

wherein HT = TOC × HI;

TOC is the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock to be detected, wt%, HI is the hydrogen index of the effective source rock to be detected, and mg/g-TOC.

17. The prediction apparatus according to claim 13 or 14, wherein the effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model establishing unit of the petroleum reservoir is specifically configured to establish the effective source rock total organic carbon content lower limit value prediction model of the petroleum reservoir according to accumulated exhaust oil volume data obtained by performing thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different effective source rock samples, the vitrinite reflectance of the effective source rock thermal simulation samples, and the original hydrocarbon generation capability.

18. The prediction apparatus according to claim 17, wherein the model establishing unit for establishing the prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir is further configured to establish the prediction model of the lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the petroleum reservoir according to the following formula:

wherein, TOC _{cutoff_oil} The total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock in the petroleum reservoir is lower limit value, wt%; ro is vitrinite reflectance,%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample used in the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected, and is mg/g; c. C ₁ 、c ₂ 、c ₃ 、c ₄ 、c ₅ 、c ₆ 、c ₇ Is an empirical parameter; x is the number of ₁ 0.8% -1.1% of x ₂ 1.2 to 1.4 percent.

19. The prediction apparatus according to claim 12 or 14, wherein the effective source rock cumulative exhaust gas amount prediction model is specifically configured to be established based on cumulative exhaust gas amount data obtained by performing thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different effective source rock samples, total organic carbon content of the effective source rock thermal simulation samples, vitrinite reflectance, and raw hydrocarbon generation capacity.

20. The prediction apparatus of claim 19, wherein the effective source rock cumulative exhaust gas amount prediction model is further configured to build the effective source rock cumulative exhaust gas amount prediction model according to the following equation:

wherein Qpg is the accumulated exhaust gas quantity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected, mg/g.rock; ro is vitrinite reflectivity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be detected,%; TOC is the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock to be measured, wt%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample used in the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generating capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected, and is mg/g; d is a radical of ₁ 、d ₂ 、d ₃ 、d ₄ 、d ₅ 、d ₆ 、d ₇ 、d ₈ 、d ₉ 、d ₁₀ 、d ₁₁ 、d ₁₂ 、d ₁₃ 、d ₁₄ 、d ₁₅ 、d ₁₆ 、d ₁₇ Is an empirical parameter; y is ₁ 0.8% -1.2%, y ₂ 1.2 to 1.4 percent.

21. The prediction apparatus according to claim 13 or 14, wherein the prediction model establishing unit is specifically configured to establish the lower limit value prediction model of the total organic carbon content of the effective source rock of the natural gas formation reservoir according to accumulated exhaust gas amount data obtained by performing thermal simulation experiments on a plurality of different effective source rock samples, vitrinite reflectance of the effective source rock thermal simulation samples, and original hydrocarbon generation capacity.

22. The prediction apparatus according to claim 21, wherein the model establishing unit is further configured to establish a lower limit prediction model of the effective source rock total organic carbon content of the natural gas deposit according to the following formula:

wherein, TOC _{cutoff_gas} The lower limit value of the total organic carbon content of the effective hydrocarbon source rock of the natural gas reservoir is wt%; ro is vitrinite reflectance,%; HT _o The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective hydrocarbon source rock sample to be detected is mg/g; HT _oa The original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective source rock sample used in the thermal simulation experiment is closest to the original hydrocarbon generation capacity of the effective source rock sample to be detected, namely mg/g; f. of ₁ 、f ₂ 、f ₃ 、f ₄ Is an empirical parameter; z is a radical of ₁ 0.8 to 1.2 percent.

23. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor when executing the computer program implements the method for predicting an effective source rock property parameter of any one of claims 1-11.

24. A computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program, wherein the computer program when executed by a processor implements the method for predicting effective source rock property parameters of any one of claims 1-11.