CN113705127A - Dam break risk prediction and emergency response method and device for tailing pond and electronic equipment - Google Patents
Dam break risk prediction and emergency response method and device for tailing pond and electronic equipment Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a dam break risk prediction and emergency response method, a device and electronic equipment for a tailing pond, and relates to the technical field of dam break emergency response of the tailing pond, wherein the method comprises the following steps: establishing an erosion dam overtopping collapse model based on pre-acquired initial collapse influence parameters; calculating the downward discharge flow and the breach broadening after the dam break of the tailing pond based on the erodible dam overtopping break model; determining dam break influence data of a downstream channel through a pre-established planar two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model; and estimating the dam break risk according to the downward discharge flow, the widening of the break opening and the dam break influence data of the downstream channel, and determining the emergency response grading. The method and the device improve the accuracy of the risk estimation of dam break of the tailing pond, further improve the safety early warning effect, and improve the timeliness and the accuracy of emergency response.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of dam break emergency response of a tailing pond, in particular to a method, a device and electronic equipment for estimating dam break risk of the tailing pond and responding to dam break risk.
Background
Under general conditions, the slope of the bed surface is steeper when the tailing pond breaks through overtopping, the flow velocity of water is higher, and the composition of the grain size gradation of silt is more complicated. In the conventional process of safety evaluation and emergency management of a tailing pond, a qualitative evaluation method is often adopted for dam break risk evaluation, and because the method is simple and has single content, the evaluation result of risk estimation is not convincing, so that the emergency response grade division is unreasonable, the emergency handling capacity is insufficient, and emergency rescue is not timely.
Aiming at the problems existing in qualitative evaluation, a numerical simulation method is gradually adopted to carry out simulation calculation on a dam break risk construction model at present, so that the influence range, duration and the like of a downstream after a dam break of a tailing pond can be predicted, the corresponding emergency response level is set, and the damage degree of an accident is obviously reduced. At present, in order to simulate the transportation process of the dispersed particles during the overtopping burst of a tailing pond, a double-layer flow model provided by Zech et al is adopted to calculate the dispersed particles, however, the assumption that the concentration of a bottom muddy water layer is constant in the model does not accord with the actual situation, the movement characteristics of the sediment particles in bottom muddy water, the mass and momentum exchange between the sediment particles and a bed surface and the like are not considered, so that the obtained risk estimation effect is greatly different from the actual situation, and the accuracy is low.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a dam break risk prediction and emergency response method, a dam break risk prediction and emergency response device and electronic equipment, so that the accuracy of dam break risk prediction of a tailing pond is improved, the safety early warning effect is further improved, and the timeliness and the accuracy of emergency response are improved.
In a first aspect, the invention provides a dam break risk estimation method, which is applied to dam break of a tailing pond; the method comprises the following steps: establishing an erosion dam overtopping collapse model based on pre-acquired initial collapse influence parameters; calculating the downward discharge flow and the breach broadening after the dam break of the tailing pond based on the erodible dam overtopping break model; determining dam break influence data of a downstream channel through a pre-established planar two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model; and estimating the dam break risk according to the downward discharge flow, the widening of the break opening and the dam break influence data of the downstream channel, and determining the emergency response grading.
In an optional embodiment, the initial dam break influence parameters at least include an initial tailing pond water level, a pond capacity change curve, a break parameter and inflow flow; the method comprises the following steps of establishing an erosion dam overtopping collapse model based on pre-acquired initial collapse influence parameters, wherein the steps comprise: and establishing an erosion dam overtopping collapse model according to the bank erosion and collapse principle based on the pre-acquired initial dam collapse influence parameters.
In an optional implementation manner, the step of calculating the downward discharge flow and the breach broadening after the dam break of the tailing pond based on the erodable dam overtopping break model comprises the following steps: calculating water depth change data and top dam body scouring change data in a reservoir when the scattered particle accumulation dam is overtopped and burst based on the overtopped and burst model of the erodable dam; determining the downward discharge flow based on the water depth change data in the reservoir and the erosion change data of the top dam body; and determining the width of the breach caused by lateral erosion and bank collapse caused by gravity instability based on the erosion change data of the top dam body.
In an optional embodiment, the step of determining the downward flow rate based on the water depth change in the reservoir and the erosion change data of the top dam body comprises: calculating the water depth change data in the reservoir and the erosion change data of the top dam body based on an improved Euler method to obtain initial drainage flow; and correcting the initial leakage flow to obtain the corrected leakage flow.
In an optional embodiment, the step of establishing a planar two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model includes: establishing an initial plane two-dimensional dam-break flood evolution model based on an alternate direction implicit principle; and carrying out quality centralized processing and time correction processing on the initial plane two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model to obtain the plane two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model.
In an optional embodiment, the step of determining the dam break influence data of the downstream channel through a pre-established planar two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model includes: obtaining the simulation distribution of a downstream channel flow field according to the elevation information of the original channel terrain through a pre-established planar two-dimensional dam-break flood evolution model; simulating the sediment conveying conditions at different channel positions by using a flow field and water flow sand-carrying force formula to obtain the sedimentation condition of the downstream channel at the preset distance; iteration operation is carried out on the silting condition of the preset distance of the downstream channel until convergence is achieved, and dam break influence data of the preset distance of the downstream channel after dam break of the tailing pond is determined; the dam break influence data of the downstream channel at least comprise data information of on-way flood flow, flood peak flow, flood arrival time, flood submerging height and tailing sedimentation depth of the channel section.
In an alternative embodiment, the method further comprises: and carrying out risk grade division based on a risk estimation result obtained by estimating the dam break risk so as to carry out preset emergency response of corresponding grade based on the divided risk grade.
In a second aspect, the invention provides a dam break risk estimation device, which is applied to dam break of a tailing pond; the device comprises: the model establishing module is used for establishing an erosion dam overtopping collapse model based on the pre-acquired initial collapse influence parameters; the dam break erosion simulation module is used for calculating the downward discharge flow and the breach broadening after the dam break of the tailing pond based on the erosion dam overtopping break model; the downstream channel mud flow motion simulation module is used for determining downstream dam break influence data of the downstream channel through a pre-established planar two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model; and the risk prediction and emergency response module is used for predicting dam break risks according to the downward discharge flow, the expansion of the break port and dam break influence data of the downstream channel and determining the emergency response grading.
In a third aspect, the present invention provides an electronic device, including a processor and a memory, where the memory stores machine executable instructions capable of being executed by the processor, and the processor executes the machine executable instructions to implement the method for estimating risk of dam break of a tailings pond and responding to an emergency, according to any one of the foregoing embodiments.
In a fourth aspect, the present invention provides a machine-readable storage medium storing machine-executable instructions which, when invoked and executed by a processor, cause the processor to implement the method for estimating risk of dam break in a tailings pond and responding to an emergency in accordance with any one of the preceding embodiments.
The method is applied to dam break of the tailing pond, firstly, an erosion dam overtopping collapse model is established based on pre-obtained initial dam break influence parameters, then, the downward discharge flow and the expansion of a break opening after the dam break of the tailing pond are calculated based on the erosion dam overtopping collapse model, the downstream dam break influence data of a downstream channel are determined through a pre-established planar two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model, then, the dam break risk is estimated according to the downward discharge flow, the expansion of the break opening and the dam break influence data of the downstream channel, and the emergency response grading is determined. According to the mode, through the established erosion dam overtopping and breaking model, the moving and scouring process of suspended matter and pushed matter sediment in the drainage process can be embodied, the obtained downward drainage flow and the widening of the break mouth are closer to the data measured under the actual condition, and the actual risk of the break dam condition can be estimated more accurately by considering the break dam influence data of the downstream channel, so that the accuracy of estimating the risk of the break dam of the tailing pond is improved, the safety early warning effect is further improved, and the timeliness and the accuracy of emergency response are improved by determining the grading of emergency response.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings can be obtained by those skilled in the art without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for estimating dam break risk of a tailing pond and responding to an emergency according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart of another method for estimating dam break risk of a tailings pond and responding to an emergency according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a device for estimating dam break risk of a tailing pond and responding to an emergency according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. The components of embodiments of the present invention generally described and illustrated in the figures herein may be arranged and designed in a wide variety of different configurations.
Thus, the following detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention, presented in the figures, is not intended to limit the scope of the invention, as claimed, but is merely representative of selected embodiments of the invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
It should be noted that: like reference numbers and letters refer to like items in the following figures, and thus, once an item is defined in one figure, it need not be further defined and explained in subsequent figures.
Some embodiments of the invention are described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The embodiments described below and the features of the embodiments can be combined with each other without conflict.
Considering the test process of the dam break physical model of the tailing pond, under the condition of strong unsteady flow, the bank erosion and collapse modes in the overtopping and collapse process of the tailing pond have particularity, a large amount of tailings are transported to the downstream in a suspended mass motion mode by formed flood, and meanwhile, a certain scale of bed mass motion also exists, and even a high-strength bed mass motion sand transporting process close to continuous motion occurs. In order to better simulate the dam break water and sand transportation process of the tailing pond, the embodiment of the invention provides a dam break risk prediction and emergency response method, a dam break risk prediction and emergency response device and electronic equipment of the tailing pond, so that the accuracy of the risk prediction of the dam break of the tailing pond is improved, the safety early warning effect is further improved, and the timeliness and the accuracy of emergency response are improved.
For convenience of understanding, firstly, a dam break risk estimation method provided by the embodiment of the present invention is described in detail, referring to a flow diagram of a method for estimating dam break risk and an emergency response of a tailings pond shown in fig. 1, where the method includes the following steps S102 to S108:
and S102, establishing an erosion dam overtopping collapse model based on the pre-acquired initial collapse influence parameters.
And step S104, calculating the downward discharge flow and the breach broadening after the dam break of the tailing pond based on the erodable dam overtopping break model.
And S106, determining downstream dam break influence data of the downstream channel through a pre-established planar two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model.
And S108, estimating the dam break risk according to the downward discharge flow, the expansion of the break port and the dam break influence data of the downstream channel, and determining the emergency response grade.
According to the dam break risk prediction and emergency response method for the tailing pond, the overtopping and breaking model of the erodible dam can be established, the moving and scouring process of suspended sediment and pushed sediment in the flow discharge process can be embodied, the obtained downward discharge flow and the widening of the break mouth are closer to the data measured under the actual condition, and the actual risk of the dam break condition can be predicted more accurately by considering the dam break influence data of the downstream channel, so that the accuracy of the risk prediction of the dam break of the tailing pond is improved, the safety early warning effect is further improved, and the timeliness and the accuracy of emergency response are further improved.
In one implementation mode, the initial dam break influence parameters at least comprise an initial tailing pond water level, a pond capacity change curve, a break parameter and inflow flow, and when the erodible dam overtopping collapse model is established based on the pre-obtained initial dam break influence parameters, the erodible dam overtopping collapse model is established according to the bank erosion and collapse principle through the pre-obtained initial dam break influence parameters. Specifically, based on a physical graph of erosion and collapse of the dam body obtained by a laboratory test, an unbalanced sediment transport equation of river dynamics and a related sediment motion mechanical formula are adopted to calculate erosion deformation of the dam body, a dam bank erosion and collapse mode is introduced to simulate a breach widening process, and an erosion dam overtopping collapse model is established. The overtopping and breaking outburst of the erodible dam is very strong, the danger of the dam breaking process is huge, and real-time measurement data are difficult to obtain, so that the overtopping and breaking process can be well reproduced by obtaining initial dam breaking influence parameters obtained by a laboratory test through a numerical simulation means.
The embodiment of the invention is mainly used for predicting the downstream flood submerging height, the tailing sedimentation height, the emergency disposal time and the like, and meanwhile, corresponding emergency response levels are set according to the dam break change conditions, as shown in fig. 2, and the mode is described in detail below.
In one embodiment, when calculating the downward discharge flow, the water depth change data and the top dam body scouring change data in the reservoir are calculated based on the erodable dam overtopping and bursting model when the granular bulk accumulation dam is overtopped and burst, and then the downward discharge flow is determined based on the water depth change data and the top dam body scouring change data in the reservoir. Specifically, in the progressive collapse of the erodable dam caused by overtopping, the erosion of the dam body break opening can be divided into a top erosion section and a downstream slope erosion section, the cross section of the break opening is supposed to be trapezoidal, the erosion process of the break opening section is performed in parallel, and z ismIs the initial dam height; z is a radical ofbThe height of the dam body after scouring at the time of delta t; h iswThe height of the water level in the warehouse; h iscAnd hdThe water depth values of the top and the lower slope surface bursting section are respectively; l iscAnd LdThe lengths of the top of the dam body and the length of the breach section of the downstream slope of the dam body are respectively; thetauAnd thetadThe angles of the upstream slope surface and the downstream slope surface of the dam body are respectively.
When the water level in the reservoir gradually increases to the elevation of the dam crest, the top of the dam body begins to be flushed. The scouring change process of the dam crest mouth-bursting section and the downstream slope can be expressed by the formula (1):
in the formula: rho's-is the dry density of the dam material;
zbthe height of a breach at the top of the dam body is obtained;
l is the length of the breach;
t is time;
qs,inand q iss,outThe single-width sand conveying amount of the inflow section and the outflow section respectively comprises the offset mass silt and the suspended mass silt.
Based on the physical pattern of the overtopping burst of the erosion dam, the single-width sand conveying amount changes along with the overtopping water flow along the way, so that the sand content along the way change equation is adopted for calculation:
in the formula: s*-suspended load sand content at equilibrium;
Sinand Sout-suspended matter sand content of the inflow and outflow sections, respectively;
q-is single wide flow;
ωsthe silt in muddy water sinks fast.
The flow velocity of the water flow at the top section of the dam can be considered as critical flow velocity
And calculating the water depth according to the leakage flow and the shape of the breach. The downstream section of the dam body is steep in gradient, so that the downstream section of the dam body can be considered to be quickly developed into a balanced state, and the flow velocity is calculated by adopting a metabolic equation.
In order to simplify the solving process, the tailings reservoir capacity can be approximately solved through an empirical relationship:
in the formula: m is0Hexix-0Are respectively coefficient of which x0The value range of (1) to (4).
When the water level in the tailings pond gradually increases to the bottom elevation of the break opening, the mud flow in the tailings pond is accelerated to converge to the break opening and is discharged and discharged. According to the flow balance relation, the following can be obtained:
in the formula: qin-is the inflow flow rate;
Qout-is the flow rate of the bleed down through the breach;
Qotherthe flow is the flow out of the reservoir in other modes such as seepage piping and the like.
Inflow flows include runoff influx, rainfall, groundwater seepage, and the like. The overtopping burst duration is relatively short, the outflow through seepage, piping and other modes is relatively small, and the other modes of outflow Q are ignoredother. Substituting the formula (3) into the formula (4) can obtain an expression of the water depth in the reservoir:
research shows that after the mud flow overflows, the hydraulic characteristics of the mud flow in the break mouth section are similar to those of the mud flow in the wide top weir discharge process. Therefore, the flow rate of the downward discharge is calculated by using the outflow formula of the trapezoidal wide top weir:
in the formula: k is a radical ofsm-is the coefficient of influence of the tail water effect in case of flooding;
m is a slope coefficient;
h0dam crest head, h0＝hw-zb；
c1、c2-is the flow coefficient.
Further, when calculating the burst broadening, the burst broadening can be determined based on the lateral erosion obtained from the top dam body scouring change data and the bank collapse caused by gravity instability. Specifically, the flow of the trapezoid wide top weir can be regarded as the superposition of the flow of the middle rectangular weir and the flow of the triangular weir. Based on the physical pattern of the overtopping and breaking of the erodible dam, the edge bank is eroded and widened gradually under the scouring of overtopping water flow, the slope of the dam body becomes steep gradually after the erosion of the edge bank recedes, and finally collapse occurs. Therefore, the widening process of the burst opening can be divided into two parts of lateral erosion caused by water flow scouring and bank collapse caused by gravity instability. The vertical erosion of the inner bank at the time of delta t can be calculated by the on-way scouring, and the width of the lateral erosion is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula: ctThe greater the erosion resistance of the edge bank material, the smaller the coefficient, the unit of which is the same as the bulk weight of the material;
vkthe erosion-resistant flow rate is closely related to the soil mechanical property of the dam body material and the starting flow rate of the silt, the starting flow rate can reflect the impedance effect of the scouring material on water flow, and the critical starting flow rate is adopted as the erosion-resistant flow rate in calculation.
Through the mathematical model control equation established in the foregoing, the water depth change in the reservoir when the granular bulk dam is broken through overtopping can be obtained through the formula (5), and the top dam body scouring change can be obtained through the formula (1). The two equations can be further written as:
wherein:
and calculating the water depth change data in the reservoir and the erosion change data of the top dam body based on the improved Euler method to obtain the initial discharge flow. Firstly, an initial approximate value, namely a predicted value (namely initial leakage flow) is obtained by using an Euler formula:
Up＝Un+dt·F(Un) (11)
correcting the initial bleed-down flow to obtain a corrected bleed-down flow, wherein the correction mode can adopt a trapezoidal formula to correct the initial bleed-down flow to obtain a correction value (namely the corrected bleed-down flow):
after initial conditions such as water level, reservoir capacity change curve, breach parameter and inflow flow in an initial tailing pond are given, the improved Euler method is adopted to solve and calculate the control equation, and numerical solutions of downward discharge flow and breach broadening change can be obtained. By obtaining the numerical solution, initial data can be provided for the next simulation calculation of the downstream channel mud flow motion process.
Further, when the planar two-dimensional break dam flood routing model is built, an initial planar two-dimensional break dam flood routing model can be built based on an alternate direction implicit principle, namely a planar two-dimensional water flow sediment mathematical model adopting an ADI format finite difference method is adopted, and then quality centralized processing and time correction processing are carried out on the initial planar two-dimensional break dam flood routing model to obtain the planar two-dimensional break dam flood routing model. By adopting a quality-concentrated processing method and a time advance algorithm of estimation and correction, the problems of calculation storage amount and speed are solved well, the calculation process is stable, the calculation speed is high, the calculation precision is high, the grid division is flexible, local areas can be encrypted at will, irregular river channel boundaries can be simulated well, and the method is suitable for numerical simulation of the silt problem at the downstream of the break dam.
In one implementation, when the dam break influence data of the downstream channel is determined through a pre-established planar two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model, firstly, the simulated distribution of a downstream channel flow field is obtained according to the elevation information of the original channel terrain through a pre-established planar two-dimensional dam-break flood evolution model, then simulating the sediment conveying condition of different channel positions by using a flow field and water flow sand-carrying force formula to obtain the sedimentation condition of the downstream channel at the preset distance, then, iteration operation is carried out on the siltation condition of the preset distance of the downstream channel until convergence is achieved, dam break influence data of the preset distance of the downstream channel after the dam break of the tailings reservoir is determined, the dam break influence data of the downstream channel at least comprise data information of on-way flood flow, flood peak flow, flood arrival time, flood submerging height and tailing sedimentation depth of the channel section.
The plane two-dimensional dam-break flood evolution model obtains a two-dimensional water flow motion equation and a continuous equation by adopting a water depth integral three-dimensional N-S equation, and takes a sediment continuous equation, a riverbed deformation equation, a sand-carrying force formula and the like as basic control equations for two-dimensional calculation. Because the calculation of the plane two-dimensional model is relatively complex, an algorithm of a non-coupled solution is generally adopted, namely a water flow equation and a sediment equation are respectively and independently solved, a hydraulic power element is solved first, then the deformation of a riverbed is solved, and the two operations are carried out alternately.
To perform finite difference calculation, the calculation region needs to be first gridded. The model is based on the wave front propulsion method idea, and a riverway quadrilateral mesh automatic subdivision system is established. Therefore, by inputting a small amount of information (boundary lines and landforms) into the riverway quadrilateral mesh automatic subdivision system, the quadrilateral meshes which fill the whole calculation domain can be automatically generated, and automatic drawing and screen display are matched. The system can automatically obtain the node coordinates, the elevations and the unit association information of the grids, thereby solving the difficulty of large workload of finite difference calculation pretreatment.
Because the topography of the mountain area channel is generally complex, the water flow movement is in a narrow and long space, the influence of the boundary shape on the flow is very large, especially the irregular boundary, in a Cartesian coordinate system for calculating the water flow of a river channel, when the mountain area channel is subjected to numerical simulation, the flow at the boundary is difficult to be well simulated by adopting a rectangular grid to approximate a curve boundary by using a polygonal line boundary. It is necessary to convert irregular regions having complex boundaries into regular regions by coordinate transformation, and to facilitate handling of the boundaries in numerical simulation. Currently, the Body-fitted coordinates transform (Body-fitted coordinates) is widely used. Given the total number of nodes per direction, an evenly distributed grid can be generated immediately.
The whole calculation domain is divided into NE units and NP nodes, and the nodes are numbered from 1 to NP in a whole mode. Integrating the water sand equation by a weighted residue method, substituting a unit shape function into an integral equation, and finishing to obtain the following finite difference equation:
the relations of water flow, water depth and inflow section sand content at different moments and under different section conditions can be obtained by the above formulas. Therefore, the downstream siltation condition can be calculated by using the equation of change of sand content along the way:
q-is single wide flow;
ωsthe silt in muddy water sinks fast.
For a tailing pond with a complicated tailing dam construction process, the grain size grading composition of the tailings is complicated, and the influence of the self weight, the grading and the stacking density of the tailings on a simulation influence result is required to be considered in the calculation of a downstream channel siltation mathematical model.
Since the channel topography is constantly changing during the iteration process, the channel topography is changed by constantly changing siltation, further affecting the flow field. Therefore, the distribution of the flow field of the downstream channel can be simulated according to the elevation information of the original channel terrain, and then the sediment conveying condition of different channel positions can be simulated by utilizing the flow field and the water flow sand-carrying force formula, so that the sedimentation condition of different channel positions at the moment can be obtained. Due to the fact that the iteration sequence is finally converged, the flow field and the topography are continuously changed by utilizing the process of recursion of the old value of the sedimentation height, and the final topography of the sedimentation of the downstream channel tailings can be obtained, so that the data information of the downstream preset distance of the dam body, namely the channel section on the positions of 500m, 1000m, 1500m, 2000m, 2500m and the like, along-the-way flood flow, the flood peak flow, the flood arrival time, the flood peak arrival time, the flood submerging height, the tailing sedimentation depth and the like can be predicted.
Furthermore, risk grade division can be carried out on the basis of a risk estimation result obtained by estimating the dam break risk, so that the preset emergency response of the corresponding grade can be carried out on the basis of the divided risk grade. Specifically, according to controllability, severity and influence range of safety production accidents, the acceptance degree of downstream economic loss risks and social risks and the like, the dam break width and the influence range of the downstream are calculated by simulating a dam break model and serve as main grading bases, corresponding emergency response grades are set and divided into 4 grades of I grade, II grade, III grade and IV grade, the grades can be respectively marked by red, orange, yellow and blue, and the grades can be marked by I grade (particularly severe), II grade (severe), III grade (heavy) and IV grade (general), wherein the grade is the highest grade. The larger the breach is, the larger the leakage flow is, the larger the influence on the downstream is, and the higher the emergency response level is.
The specific limit value or threshold value is divided into intervals according to the width of the break opening and the downstream influence range, the downstream economic loss risk and the social risk acceptable degree calculated by the break dam model, different emergency response levels are set, and the downstream influence range and the water supply submergence height are determined according to the break dam calculation result. For example, table 1 below:
TABLE 1 Emergency response grading and disposal
According to the emergency degree, the development situation and the possible harm degree of the emergency, corresponding limit values or threshold values are set according to the width of the breach and the condition of the downstream influence range, the emergency response grade is divided into I grade, II grade, III grade and IV grade, and the grade is respectively marked by red, orange, yellow and blue, so that the scientification and the precision of emergency management are realized.
For ease of understanding, embodiments of the present invention provide a specific example: in order to make the purpose and technical effects of the present invention more clear, the following will explain the embodiments of the present invention in detail with reference to the embodiments and the calculation chart. The exemplary embodiments and descriptions of the present invention are provided only to further illustrate the present invention.
1. Dam break scouring process of tailing pond
On the basis of the physical pattern of the erosion dam overtopping collapse, which is obtained by the test, erosion deformation of a dam body is calculated according to an unbalanced sand transport equation of river dynamics and a related sediment movement mechanical formula, a simulating breach widening process in a bank erosion and collapse mode is introduced, an erosion dam overtopping collapse model is established, and an improved Euler method is adopted to solve and calculate the model.
The model calculation result is obtained, the maximum width of the break is about 120m when the flood peak flow is reached along with the mud flow in the process of widening the break after the overtopping dam break of the Doubao mountain tailing mine, the break depth is about 2.5m at the moment, the break flow speed is 18.36m/s, and the mud flow volume weight is 1.5t/m3And is a dilute debris flow.
The calculation result of the dam break mathematical model shows that the average flow is 1787m3S, the peak flow rate of the main flood is 5508m after about 8h and 3h50min3(s) a maximum sand content of about 840kg/m3After about 8h, the flood flow is gradually reduced to 1000m3/s。
2. Mud flow movement process of downstream channel
1) Mud flow movement process of downstream channel
The dam site of the Duobao mountain tailing pond is selected to be about 2.5km away from the dam site of the Duobao mountain tailing pond to serve as a main research range. The region with the grids in the DEM file of the tailings pond of the numerical simulation is a calculation region containing important topographic features of the tailings pond region. The research adopts structured grids, and has the advantages of high grid generation speed, good grid generation quality and simple data structure. Because the calculation domain is straight, the grids are basically consistent, and the smoothness and the orthogonality are good.
The dam break mathematical model test result of the multi-Baoshan tailing pond shows that the flood flow can be continuously attenuated along the way from the tailing flow movement process line of the channel section at the positions 500m, 1000m, 1500m, 2000m and 2500m at the downstream.
The average flow along the way of the channel sections at the positions 500m, 1000m, 1500m, 2000m and 2500m downstream of the initial dam is 1673.1m3/s、1479.8m3/s、1264.3m3/s、1060.4m3/s、841.7m3The flow rate of the flood peak along the way is 4999.0m3/s、4441.1m3/s、3811.8m3/s、3203.5m3/s、2550.1m3(s) a flood sand content of about 800kg/m3The variation along the way is not large. The dam break flood arrival time is about 2 hours, the flood peak arrival time is about 4 hours, and the dam break flood influence time is mainly concentrated on about 4 hours, namely the dam break flood influence time of 2.5km downstream inner channels is mainly 2 hours to 6 hours after overtopping overflow dam break.
2) Downstream trench flood affecting height
The calculation result of a dam break mathematical model of the multi-Baoshan tailing pond shows that the influence height of flood inundation of the channels at 500m, 1000m, 1500m, 2000m and 2500m at the downstream is attenuated along the way. The flood submerging heights along the channel sections at 500m, 1000m, 1500m, 2000m and 2500m downstream of the initial dam are respectively 0.65m, 0.64m, 0.60m, 0.48m and 0.46m, and the flood submerging water levels along the channel sections are respectively 437.2m, 435.1m, 431.2m, 427.8m and 423.5 m.
3) Sedimentation depth of tailings in downstream channel tailings pond
The dam break mathematical model test result of the multi-Baoshan tailing pond shows that the tailing burying depths of channel tailing ponds at 500m, 1000m, 1500m and 2000m at the downstream are attenuated along the way. The burying depths of the tailings along the way at the positions 500m, 1000m, 1500m, 2000m and 2500m of the channel sections at the downstream of the initial dam are respectively 0.26m, 0.23m, 0.18m, 0.14m and 0.09m, and the proportion of the burying depth of the tailings along the way of the channel to the flood submerging height is respectively 0.4, 0.35, 0.3, 0.28 and 0.2.
4) Downstream channel emergency disposal time
The calculation result of a dam break mathematical model of the multi-Baoshan tailing pond shows that the time for the dam break from the dam top overflow dam to reach each section of a downstream channel is about 2 hours, namely the time for the dam break flood to reach 2.5km downstream is about 2 hours, the flood peak arrival time is about 4 hours, and the time for the flood to influence the downstream channel is mainly 2 hours to 6 hours after the overtopping overflow dam break. Therefore, the test result can be combined, the initial time of safe evacuation (early warning initial time) is calculated when the overtopping dangerous situation occurs in the tailing pond, and the downstream emergency disposal time is formulated, which is shown in table 2:
TABLE 2 influence parameters on dam break of different downstream channel sections
3. Emergency response grading
According to the breach width change and the downstream influence scope condition that dam break mathematical model simulation calculated, carried out the threshold value and confirmed, set up different emergency response grades, divide into I level (especially serious), II level (serious), III level (heavier) and IV level (general), one-level is the highest level, see table 3 below:
TABLE 3 Emergency response class and disposal mode corresponding to breach width
In conclusion, based on the observation of the tailings pond physical model test process, the particularity of the bank erosion and collapse modes in the overtopping and bursting process of the tailings pond is found under the strong unsteady flow condition, a large amount of tailings are transported to the downstream in the form of suspended mass motion by the formed flood, and meanwhile, the bed mass motion of a certain scale also exists, and even a high-strength bed mass sand transporting process close to continuous motion occurs. In order to better simulate the dam break water sand transportation process of the tailing pond, the embodiment calculates the erosion deformation of the dam body break channel by introducing an unbalanced sand transportation theory and a sand-carrying force formula which adapts to the movement of high, middle and low sand-containing water flow according to the physical graphs of the overtopping break and the tailing scouring transportation of the tailing pond obtained by a model test, and calculates the break widening process by adopting a bank erosion and collapse mode. The established tailing pond overtopping dam break flood prediction mathematical model can reflect the movement scouring process of suspended sediment and pushed sediment in the flow discharge process, the obtained calculation result is in accordance with the actual measurement data of the model test, the peak flow and the peak current time can be captured, and the calculated break widening process is closer to the actual measurement data.
For the construction of a dam break mathematical model of a tailing pond, firstly, digital terrain is established at the junction of a tailing area and a channel at the downstream of the dam according to the landform and the terrain data of a drainage basin and the boundary of a natural channel in a research range, the influence of a tailing pond capacity curve, self weight, gradation and stacking density on simulation is considered, and particularly, the problem of value taking of actual roughness or a competence coefficient is considered on the condition of a digital-analog boundary.
The estimation result of the embodiment of the invention is closer to the actually measured data, and the requirements of safety evaluation and environmental protection on the aspects of the peak flow, the flood submerging range, the tailing sedimentation depth and the like of the downstream channel can be met. The method has important significance for quantification of dam break risk evaluation of the tailing pond, scientific safety management and accurate emergency management.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a device for estimating the dam break risk of the tailing pond and responding to the dam break risk, which is shown in fig. 3 and mainly comprises the following parts:
the model establishing module 302 is used for establishing an erosion dam overtopping collapse model based on pre-acquired initial collapse influence parameters;
the dam break erosion simulation module 304 is used for calculating the downward discharge flow and the breach broadening after the dam break of the tailing pond based on the erodable dam overtopping break model;
the downstream channel mud flow motion simulation module 306 is used for determining dam break influence data of the downstream channel through a pre-established planar two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model;
and the risk prediction and emergency response module 308 is used for predicting the dam break risk according to the downward discharge flow, the expansion of the break port and the dam break influence data of the downstream channel and determining the emergency response classification.
According to the dam break risk prediction and emergency response device for the tailing pond, provided by the embodiment of the invention, through the established erosion dam overtopping and breaking model capable of eroding the dam, the moving erosion process of suspended sediment and pushed sediment in the flow discharge process can be embodied, the obtained downward discharge flow and the obtained breach widening are closer to the data measured under the actual condition, and the actual risk of the dam break condition can be more accurately predicted by considering the dam break influence data of the downstream channel, so that the accuracy of the risk prediction of the dam break of the tailing pond is improved, the safety early warning effect is further improved, and the timeliness and the accuracy of emergency response are improved.
In one embodiment, the initial dam break influence parameters at least comprise initial tailing pond water level, pond capacity change curve, break parameters and inflow flow; the model establishing module 302 is further configured to establish an erodable dam overtopping and collapse model according to the bank erosion and collapse principle based on the pre-obtained initial dam collapse influence parameter.
In an embodiment, the dam break and erosion simulation module 304 is further configured to calculate water depth change data in the reservoir and erosion change data of the top dam body when the bulk particle accumulation dam breaks overtopping based on the erodable dam overtopping and breaking model; determining the downward discharge flow based on the water depth change data in the reservoir and the erosion change data of the top dam body; and determining the width of the breach caused by lateral erosion and bank collapse caused by gravity instability based on the erosion change data of the top dam body.
In an embodiment, the dam break erosion simulation module 304 is further configured to calculate water depth change data in the reservoir and erosion change data of the top dam based on an improved euler method to obtain an initial discharge rate; and correcting the initial leakage flow to obtain the corrected leakage flow.
In one embodiment, the system further comprises an establishing module of a planar two-dimensional dam-break flood evolution model, wherein the establishing module is used for establishing an initial planar two-dimensional dam-break flood evolution model based on an alternate direction implicit principle; and carrying out quality centralized processing and time correction processing on the initial plane two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model to obtain the plane two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model.
In one embodiment, the downstream channel mud flow motion simulation module 306 is further configured to obtain, according to elevation information of an original channel terrain, simulated distribution of a downstream channel flow field through a pre-established planar two-dimensional dam-break flood evolution model; simulating the sediment conveying conditions at different channel positions by using a flow field and water flow sand-carrying force formula to obtain the sedimentation condition of the downstream channel at the preset distance; iteration operation is carried out on the silting condition of the preset distance of the downstream channel until convergence is achieved, and dam break influence data of the preset distance of the downstream channel after dam break of the tailing pond is determined; the dam break influence data of the downstream channel at least comprise data information of on-way flood flow, flood peak flow, flood arrival time, flood submerging height and tailing sedimentation depth of the channel section.
In an embodiment, the device further comprises a risk classification unit for classifying risk classes based on a risk estimation result obtained by estimating the dam break risk, so as to perform preset emergency response of corresponding classes based on the classified risk classes.
The device provided by the embodiment of the present invention has the same implementation principle and technical effect as the method embodiments, and for the sake of brief description, reference may be made to the corresponding contents in the method embodiments without reference to the device embodiments.
The embodiment of the invention provides electronic equipment, which particularly comprises a processor and a storage device; the storage means has stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by the processor, performs the method of any of the above described embodiments.
Fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device 100 according to an embodiment of the present invention, where the electronic device 100 includes: a processor 40, a memory 41, a bus 42 and a communication interface 43, wherein the processor 40, the communication interface 43 and the memory 41 are connected through the bus 42; the processor 40 is arranged to execute executable modules, such as computer programs, stored in the memory 41.
The memory 41 may include a high-speed Random Access Memory (RAM) and may also include a non-volatile memory (non-volatile memory), such as at least one disk memory. The communication connection between the network element of the system and at least one other network element is realized through at least one communication interface 43 (which may be wired or wireless), and the internet, a wide area network, a local network, a metropolitan area network, etc. may be used.
The bus 42 may be an ISA bus, PCI bus, EISA bus, or the like. The bus may be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, etc. For ease of illustration, only one double-headed arrow is shown in FIG. 4, but that does not indicate only one bus or one type of bus.
The memory 41 is used for storing a program, the processor 40 executes the program after receiving an execution instruction, and the method executed by the apparatus defined by the flow process disclosed in any of the foregoing embodiments of the present invention may be applied to the processor 40, or implemented by the processor 40.
The processor 40 may be an integrated circuit chip having signal processing capabilities. In implementation, the steps of the above method may be performed by integrated logic circuits of hardware or instructions in the form of software in the processor 40. The processor 40 may be a general-purpose processor, and includes a Central Processing Unit (CPU), a Network Processor (NP), and the like; the device can also be a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), a Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA), or other Programmable logic devices, discrete Gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components. The various methods, steps and logic blocks disclosed in the embodiments of the present invention may be implemented or performed. A general purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like. The steps of the method disclosed in connection with the embodiments of the present invention may be directly implemented by a hardware decoding processor, or implemented by a combination of hardware and software modules in the decoding processor. The software module may be located in ram, flash memory, rom, prom, or eprom, registers, etc. storage media as is well known in the art. The storage medium is located in a memory 41, and the processor 40 reads the information in the memory 41 and completes the steps of the method in combination with the hardware thereof.
The method, the device and the computer program product for estimating the dam break risk of the tailings pond and responding to the emergency provided by the embodiment of the invention comprise a computer readable storage medium storing nonvolatile program codes executable by a processor, wherein the computer readable storage medium stores a computer program, and the computer program is executed by the processor to execute the method in the previous method embodiment when the computer program is executed by the processor.
It can be clearly understood by those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity of description, the specific working process of the system described above may refer to the corresponding process in the foregoing embodiments, and is not described herein again.
The computer program product of the readable storage medium provided in the embodiment of the present invention includes a computer readable storage medium storing a program code, where instructions included in the program code may be used to execute the method described in the foregoing method embodiment, and specific implementation may refer to the method embodiment, which is not described herein again.
The functions, if implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as a stand-alone product, may be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, the technical solution of the present invention may be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium and includes instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device) to execute all or part of the steps of the method according to the embodiments of the present invention. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a U-disk, a removable hard disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk, and other various media capable of storing program codes.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and not to limit the same; while the invention has been described in detail and with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some or all of the technical features may be equivalently replaced; and the modifications or the substitutions do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions depart from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A dam break risk prediction and emergency response method for a tailing pond is characterized by comprising the following steps:
establishing an erosion dam overtopping collapse model based on pre-acquired initial collapse influence parameters;
calculating the downward discharge flow and the breach broadening after the dam break of the tailing pond based on the erodable dam overtopping break model;
determining dam break influence data of a downstream channel through a pre-established planar two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model;
and estimating the dam break risk according to the downward discharge flow, the widening of the break port and the dam break influence data of the downstream channel, and determining the emergency response grading.
2. The tailings pond dam break risk prediction and emergency response method according to claim 1, wherein the initial dam break influence parameters at least comprise initial tailings pond water level, pond capacity change curve, break parameters and inflow flow rate;
the step of establishing the erodible dam overtopping collapse model based on the pre-acquired initial dam collapse influence parameters comprises the following steps of:
and establishing the erodible dam overtopping and collapse model according to the bank erosion and collapse principle based on the pre-acquired initial dam collapse influence parameters.
3. The method for estimating the dam break risk of the tailings pond and responding to the emergency according to claim 1, wherein the step of calculating the downward discharge flow and the widening of the break mouth after the dam break of the tailings pond based on the erodable dam overtopping and breaking model comprises:
calculating water depth change data and top dam body scouring change data in the reservoir when the scattered particle accumulation dam is overtopped and burst based on the erodable dam overtopping and burst model;
determining the downward discharge flow based on the water depth change data in the reservoir and the scouring change data of the top dam body;
and determining the widening of the break port based on the lateral erosion obtained from the erosion change data of the top dam body and the bank collapse caused by gravity instability.
4. The tailings pond dam break risk prediction and emergency response method according to claim 3, wherein the step of determining the discharge flow rate based on the water depth change data in the pond and the top dam body scour change data comprises:
calculating the water depth change data in the reservoir and the erosion change data of the top dam body based on an improved Euler method to obtain initial drainage flow;
and correcting the initial leakage flow to obtain the corrected leakage flow.
5. The tailings pond dam break risk prediction and emergency response method according to claim 1, wherein the step of establishing the planar two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model includes:
establishing an initial plane two-dimensional dam-break flood evolution model based on an alternate direction implicit principle;
and carrying out quality centralized processing and time correction processing on the initial plane two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model to obtain the plane two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model.
6. The tailings pond dam break risk prediction and emergency response method according to claim 1, wherein the step of determining dam break influence data of a downstream channel through a pre-established planar two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model comprises:
obtaining the simulation distribution of a downstream channel flow field according to the elevation information of the original channel terrain through a pre-established planar two-dimensional dam-break flood evolution model;
simulating the sediment conveying conditions at different channel positions by using a flow field and water flow sand-carrying force formula to obtain the sedimentation condition of the downstream channel at the preset distance;
iteration operation is carried out on the silting condition of the preset distance of the downstream channel until convergence is achieved, and dam break influence data of the preset distance of the downstream channel after dam break of the tailing pond is determined; the dam break influence data at least comprise data information of on-way flood flow, peak flow, flood arrival time, peak arrival time, flood submerging height and tailing sedimentation depth of the channel section.
7. The tailings pond dam break risk prediction and emergency response method according to claim 1, further comprising:
and carrying out risk grade division based on a risk estimation result obtained by estimating the dam break risk so as to carry out preset emergency response of corresponding grade based on the divided risk grade.
8. A dam break risk prediction and emergency response device for a tailing pond is characterized in that the device is applied to dam break of the tailing pond; the device comprises:
the model establishing module is used for establishing an erosion dam overtopping collapse model based on the pre-acquired initial collapse influence parameters;
the dam break erosion simulation module is used for calculating the downward discharge flow and the breach broadening after the dam break of the tailing pond based on the erodable dam overtopping break model;
the downstream channel mud flow motion simulation module is used for determining dam break influence data of the downstream channel through a pre-established planar two-dimensional dam break flood evolution model;
and the risk prediction and emergency response module is used for predicting dam break risks according to the downward discharge flow, the expansion of the break port and dam break influence data of the downstream channel and determining emergency response grading.
9. An electronic device comprising a processor and a memory, the memory storing machine executable instructions executable by the processor, the processor executing the machine executable instructions to implement the tailings pond dam break risk prediction and emergency response method of any of claims 1 to 7.
10. A machine readable storage medium having stored thereon machine executable instructions which, when invoked and executed by a processor, cause the processor to carry out the method of tailings pond dam break risk prediction and emergency response of any one of claims 1 to 7.
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