CN113484198A - Radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction system and method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction system which comprises a source item monitoring unit, a meteorological monitoring unit, an atmospheric diffusion prediction unit, a surface runoff monitoring unit, a surface monitoring unit and a surface diffusion prediction unit, wherein radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction data is formed by the time-space data of radiation smoke cloud diffused along with the atmosphere obtained by the atmospheric diffusion prediction unit and the diffusion time-space data of radiation smoke cloud falling into the surface along with rainfall obtained by the surface diffusion prediction unit along with the surface; and the data processing unit is used for analyzing and processing the radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction data and outputting map matrix data for showing the distribution condition of the radiation smoke cloud. The influence of environmental elements such as wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity and rainfall condition of an accident site on the physical characteristics of the radiation smoke cloud is fully considered, the diffusion condition of nuclear pollution ions entering the ground surface along with rainfall is fully considered, and the prediction behavior which is more detailed and closer to the actual condition is obtained.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction in nuclear radiation accidents, in particular to a radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction system and a radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction method.
Background
At present, the application of nuclear energy is more and more extensive internationally, and the threat degree of nuclear pollution is higher and higher. If the diffusion direction, diffusion speed and influence range of the pollutant in a future period can be effectively predicted when the nuclear leakage occurs, important reference basis is provided for a director to make a decision. By quickly making targeted countermeasures, such as crowd evacuation, isolation zone establishment and the like, the method can play a key role in controlling disasters.
The existing research on the diffusion of pollutants basically only considers the diffusion situation of pollutants in the atmosphere, and due to the particularity of nuclear pollution, when smoke cloud generated by nuclear leakage diffuses in the atmosphere, the smoke cloud can fall into the earth surface along with rainfall and can flow into rivers, lakes or sea along with surface runoff, so that when the diffusion of the nuclear pollution is researched, the radiation influence of the radiation smoke cloud on a drainage basin and a downstream drainage basin of a rainfall area has to be considered.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the technical problems to be solved by the invention are as follows: the influence of environmental elements such as wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity and rainfall condition of an accident site on the physical characteristics of the radiation smoke cloud is fully considered, the diffusion condition of nuclear pollution ions entering the ground surface along with rainfall is fully considered, and the prediction behavior which is more detailed and closer to the actual condition is obtained.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction system comprises,
the source item monitoring unit is used for acquiring source item data of the nuclear leakage accident;
the meteorological monitoring unit is used for acquiring meteorological data in the selected area;
the atmospheric diffusion prediction unit is used for predicting the current and future space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud along with atmospheric diffusion through a combined prediction model according to meteorological data and source item data;
the system also comprises a surface runoff monitoring unit used for acquiring surface runoff data in the selected area;
the earth surface monitoring unit is used for acquiring landform data in a selected area;
the surface diffusion prediction unit is used for predicting current and future radiation smoke cloud falling into the surface along with rainfall according to the surface runoff data and the landform data and combining meteorological data to diffuse space-time data along with the surface;
the radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction data is formed by the space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud diffusing along with the atmosphere obtained by the atmospheric diffusion prediction unit and the space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud falling into the ground surface along with rainfall obtained by the ground surface diffusion prediction unit;
and the data processing unit is used for analyzing and processing the radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction data and outputting map matrix data for showing the distribution condition of the radiation smoke cloud.
Furthermore, the surface runoff data comprises gully, mountain stream, river and lake distribution data in the selected area acquired by the surface runoff monitoring unit.
Furthermore, the landform data comprises data of landform, surface water permeability and vegetation distribution in the selected area, which are acquired by the surface monitoring unit.
Further, the meteorological data comprise wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity and rainfall data in the selected area, which are acquired by the meteorological monitoring unit.
Further, the source item data comprise the leakage rate, the leakage point position, the leakage point temperature, the outlet speed and the smoke discharge rate of the nuclear leakage area, which are acquired by the source item monitoring unit.
Further, the combined prediction model includes at least two of a gaussian plume mode, a larlange day mode, an euler mode, and a computational fluid dynamics mode.
And further, the system also comprises a rainfall monitoring unit, a rainfall threshold value is set, and when the rainfall exceeds the threshold value, the radiation smoke cloud diffusion space-time data of the ground surface diffusion prediction unit along with the diffusion of the ground surface is brought into the radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction data.
Further, the output value of the combined prediction model is a matrix combination of the output values of the plurality of prediction models.
Further, still include radiation early warning unit, radiation early warning unit includes atmosphere diffusion early warning unit and surface runoff diffusion early warning unit.
A radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction method comprises the following steps,
1) when nuclear leakage occurs, acquiring source item data of leakage rate, leakage point position, leakage point temperature, outlet speed and smoke discharge rate of a nuclear leakage area by the source item monitoring unit of any one of claims 6-9, and transmitting the data to the data processing unit;
2) acquiring meteorological data of wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity and rainfall of an area possibly affected by radiation smoke cloud generated by nuclear leakage through a meteorological monitoring unit, and transmitting the data to a data processing unit;
3) the data processing unit analyzes and processes the source item data and the meteorological data, and performs atmospheric dispersion analysis and dose calculation on the radiation smoke cloud through at least two combined prediction models including a Gaussian smoke plume mode, a Larren day mode, an Euler mode and a computational fluid mechanics mode to obtain dose distribution space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud along with atmospheric dispersion;
4) setting a rainfall threshold value for an area with rainfall in the selected area, acquiring gully, stream, river and lake distribution data and terrain, surface water permeability and vegetation distribution data in the area through a surface runoff monitoring unit and a surface monitoring unit when the rainfall exceeds the threshold value, and transmitting the data to a data processing unit;
5) the data processing unit performs diffusion analysis on surface runoff data and landform data of an area with rainfall to obtain space-time data of radiation smoke cloud falling into the surface along with the rainfall and diffusing along with the surface runoff;
6) generating map matrix data according to the space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud diffused along with the atmosphere in the step 3 and the space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud diffused along with the surface runoff in the step 5;
7) and according to the diffusion condition of the radiation smoke cloud obtained by the data processing unit, early warning is carried out on the affected area through the radiation early warning unit.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
more environmental elements are considered, and the method is closer to the actual situation; the mathematical algorithm provides simple input and output interfaces, and results can be obtained quickly; the map matrix data can be output, the electronic map can be directly imported, and the radiation distribution condition can be visually displayed. The dispersion prediction model can be applied to predicting the pollution dispersion condition of the surrounding area in a period of time in the future when radioactive substances leak. After various environmental parameters and radiation information are input, the distribution condition can be obtained through calculation, corresponding emergency measures can be made according to the distribution condition, and life and property safety is guaranteed.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of a radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction system according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is further illustrated with reference to the following figures and examples.
Example (b):
referring to fig. 1, a radiation cloud diffusion prediction system includes,
the source item monitoring unit is used for acquiring source item data of the nuclear leakage accident; the source item data comprise the leakage rate, the leakage point position, the leakage point temperature, the outlet speed and the smoke discharge rate of the nuclear leakage area, which are acquired by the source item monitoring unit.
The meteorological monitoring unit is used for acquiring meteorological data in the selected area; the meteorological data comprise wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity and rainfall data in the selected area, which are acquired by the meteorological monitoring unit.
The atmospheric diffusion prediction unit is used for predicting the current and future space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud along with atmospheric diffusion through a combined prediction model according to meteorological data and source item data; the output value of the combined prediction model is a matrix combination of the output values of the plurality of prediction models. Specifically, the nuclear accident diffusion prediction method based on the Gaussian atmospheric diffusion mode is used for calculating the radionuclide spatial concentration distribution field after the nuclear accident occurs according to nuclear accident source item data and meteorological parameters by adopting the Gaussian atmospheric diffusion mode. After a nuclear accident occurs (such as nuclear leakage of a nuclear power station), three steps of source item, atmospheric dispersion and dose estimation are carried out for analysis, and the analysis flow is as follows:
under the condition that meteorological conditions (wind direction, wind speed and atmospheric stability) do not change along with time and distance, the concentration of pollutants is in Gaussian distribution in the vertical direction and the cross wind direction, meanwhile, the ground does not absorb smoke cloud, total reflection occurs on the ground, the origin of coordinates is taken at the leakage position of radioactive substances, and the formula can be expressed as follows:
in the formula:
c (x, y, z) -time-integrated air concentration (Bq · s/m3) at downwind direction (x, y, z);
σy-the lateral standard deviation of the normal concentration distribution of the plume substance;
σz-the standard deviation of the normal concentration distribution of the smoke plume material in the vertical direction;
H-Release height (m).
From the above formula, for the Gaussian mode, only σ needs to be known under the condition that the source intensity and the wind speed are knowny，σzAnd the release height H, the concentration of any point in space can be obtained. Where σ isy，σzNamely the atmospheric diffusion parameter (m).
And for the area with rainfall in the selected area, in order to obtain more accurate radiation diffusion data, a rainfall monitoring unit is further arranged, a rainfall threshold value is set, and when the rainfall exceeds the threshold value, radiation smoke cloud diffusion space-time data of the ground surface diffusion prediction unit along with the diffusion of the ground surface are brought into the radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction data. The system also comprises a surface runoff monitoring unit used for acquiring surface runoff data in the selected area; the surface runoff data comprises gully, mountain stream, river and lake distribution data in the selected area acquired by the surface runoff monitoring unit.
The earth surface monitoring unit is used for acquiring landform data in a selected area; the landform data comprises landform, surface water permeability and vegetation distribution data in the selected area, which are acquired by the surface monitoring unit.
The surface diffusion prediction unit is used for predicting current and future radiation smoke cloud falling into the surface along with rainfall according to the surface runoff data and the landform data and combining meteorological data to diffuse space-time data along with the surface;
the radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction data is formed by the space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud diffusing along with the atmosphere obtained by the atmospheric diffusion prediction unit and the space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud falling into the ground surface along with rainfall obtained by the ground surface diffusion prediction unit;
and the data processing unit is used for analyzing and processing the radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction data and outputting map matrix data for showing the distribution condition of the radiation smoke cloud.
The radiation early warning unit comprises an atmospheric diffusion early warning unit and an earth surface runoff diffusion early warning unit.
A radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction method comprises the following steps,
1) when nuclear leakage occurs, the source item monitoring unit acquires source item data of leakage rate, leakage point position, leakage point temperature, outlet speed and smoke discharge rate of a nuclear leakage area and transmits the data to the data processing unit;
2) acquiring meteorological data of wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity and rainfall of an area possibly affected by radiation smoke cloud generated by nuclear leakage through a meteorological monitoring unit, and transmitting the data to a data processing unit;
3) the data processing unit analyzes and processes the source item data and the meteorological data, and performs atmospheric dispersion analysis and dose calculation on the radiation smoke cloud through at least two combined prediction models including a Gaussian smoke plume mode, a Larren day mode, an Euler mode and a computational fluid mechanics mode to obtain dose distribution space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud along with atmospheric dispersion;
4) setting a rainfall threshold value for an area with rainfall in the selected area, acquiring gully, stream, river and lake distribution data and terrain, surface water permeability and vegetation distribution data in the area through a surface runoff monitoring unit and a surface monitoring unit when the rainfall exceeds the threshold value, and transmitting the data to a data processing unit;
5) the data processing unit performs diffusion analysis on surface runoff data and landform data of an area with rainfall to obtain space-time data of radiation smoke cloud falling into the surface along with the rainfall and diffusing along with the surface runoff;
6) generating map matrix data according to the space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud diffused along with the atmosphere in the step 3 and the space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud diffused along with the surface runoff in the step 5;
7) and according to the diffusion condition of the radiation smoke cloud obtained by the data processing unit, early warning is carried out on the affected area through the radiation early warning unit.
The invention considers more environmental elements and is closer to the actual situation; the mathematical algorithm provides simple input and output interfaces, and results can be obtained quickly; the map matrix data can be output, the electronic map can be directly imported, and the radiation distribution condition can be visually displayed. The dispersion prediction model can be applied to predicting the pollution dispersion condition of the surrounding area in a period of time in the future when radioactive substances leak. After various environmental parameters and radiation information are input, the distribution condition can be obtained through calculation, corresponding emergency measures can be made according to the distribution condition, and life and property safety is guaranteed.
Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting the technical solutions, and although the present invention has been described in detail by referring to the preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications or equivalent substitutions to the technical solutions of the present invention can be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions, and all the modifications and equivalent substitutions should be covered by the claims of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction system comprises,
the source item monitoring unit is used for acquiring source item data of the nuclear leakage accident;
the meteorological monitoring unit is used for acquiring meteorological data in the selected area;
the atmospheric diffusion prediction unit is used for predicting the current and future space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud along with atmospheric diffusion through a combined prediction model according to meteorological data and source item data;
the system is characterized by further comprising a surface runoff monitoring unit, a surface runoff monitoring unit and a surface runoff monitoring unit, wherein the surface runoff monitoring unit is used for acquiring surface runoff data in a selected area;
the earth surface monitoring unit is used for acquiring landform data in a selected area;
the surface diffusion prediction unit is used for predicting current and future radiation smoke cloud falling into the surface along with rainfall according to the surface runoff data and the landform data and combining meteorological data to diffuse space-time data along with the surface;
the radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction data is formed by the space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud diffusing along with the atmosphere obtained by the atmospheric diffusion prediction unit and the space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud falling into the ground surface along with rainfall obtained by the ground surface diffusion prediction unit;
and the data processing unit is used for analyzing and processing the radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction data and outputting map matrix data for showing the distribution condition of the radiation smoke cloud.
2. The system of claim 1, wherein the surface runoff data comprises gully, mountain stream, river and lake distribution data collected by the surface runoff monitoring unit in the selected area.
3. The system of claim 2, wherein the topographic data includes terrain, surface permeability, and vegetation distribution data collected by the surface monitoring unit in the selected area.
4. The system of claim 3, wherein the meteorological data includes wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity and rainfall data collected by a meteorological monitoring unit in the selected area.
5. The radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction system of claim 4, wherein the source item data comprises leakage rate, leakage point position, leakage point temperature, outlet speed and smoke discharge rate of the nuclear leakage area acquired by the source item monitoring unit.
6. A radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction system according to any one of claims 1-5, wherein said combined prediction model comprises at least two of Gaussian smoke plume mode, Larren's mode, Euler mode and computational fluid dynamics mode.
7. The system according to claim 6, further comprising a rainfall monitoring unit, wherein a rainfall threshold is set, and when the rainfall exceeds the rainfall threshold, the radiation smoke cloud of the ground surface diffusion prediction unit is included in the radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction data along with the diffusion space-time data of the ground surface.
8. The system of claim 6, wherein the output value of the combined predictive model is a matrix combination of the output values of the plurality of predictive models.
9. The radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction system of claim 6, further comprising a radiation early warning unit, wherein the radiation early warning unit comprises an atmospheric diffusion early warning unit and a surface runoff diffusion early warning unit.
10. A radiation smoke cloud diffusion prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps,
1) when nuclear leakage occurs, acquiring source item data of leakage rate, leakage point position, leakage point temperature, outlet speed and smoke discharge rate of a nuclear leakage area by the source item monitoring unit of any one of claims 6-9, and transmitting the data to the data processing unit;
2) acquiring meteorological data of wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity and rainfall of an area possibly affected by radiation smoke cloud generated by nuclear leakage through a meteorological monitoring unit, and transmitting the data to a data processing unit;
3) the data processing unit analyzes and processes the source item data and the meteorological data, and performs atmospheric dispersion analysis and dose calculation on the radiation smoke cloud through at least two combined prediction models including a Gaussian smoke plume mode, a Larren day mode, an Euler mode and a computational fluid mechanics mode to obtain dose distribution space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud along with atmospheric dispersion;
4) setting a rainfall threshold value for an area with rainfall in the selected area, acquiring gully, stream, river and lake distribution data and terrain, surface water permeability and vegetation distribution data in the area through a surface runoff monitoring unit and a surface monitoring unit when the rainfall exceeds the threshold value, and transmitting the data to a data processing unit;
5) the data processing unit performs diffusion analysis on surface runoff data and landform data of an area with rainfall to obtain space-time data of radiation smoke cloud falling into the surface along with the rainfall and diffusing along with the surface runoff;
6) generating map matrix data according to the space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud diffused along with the atmosphere in the step 3 and the space-time data of the radiation smoke cloud diffused along with the surface runoff in the step 5;
7) and according to the diffusion condition of the radiation smoke cloud obtained by the data processing unit, early warning is carried out on the affected area through the radiation early warning unit.
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