CN110457829A - A kind of source item release inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION method based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion - Google Patents
A kind of source item release inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION method based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of source item release inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION method based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion, comprising steps of step 1, integrated by tri- kinds of model of atmospheric diffusion of CFD, Aermod and Calpuff, the simulation for different scale is calculated；Step 2, the concept based on Plume Emergency Planning Zone, for nuclear power plant, region, near region, i.e. inner region 5km, outskirt 10km are individually modeled using tri- kinds of model of atmospheric diffusion of CFD, Aermod and Calpuff in advance；Step 3 calculates various typical wind fields, under various accident source terms and its release rule and various accident scenarios, and the concentration changing rule for monitoring or simulating at feature locations saves in the database simultaneously；Step 4, when escape of radioactivity accident occurs, according to the concentration changing rule at feature locations, automatic inversion goes out releasing position and accident pattern, and it is based on real-time weather forecast information, dispersal direction, range and the severity for quickly calculating the following pollution assist policymaker to orient publication early warning in advance, and formulate emergency response scheme.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to environmental forecasting field, especially a kind of source item based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion discharges inverting
With DIFFUSION PREDICTION method.
Background technique
After Fukushima nuclear accident, Source Term Inversion becomes a kind of important nuclear accident reflectivity release source item quantitative calculation and analysis
Method.Nuclear accident radioactivity release source item describes radioactivity release mode, the type of radioactive substance and total amount, is determining
The important evidence that nuclear accident classification, evaluation nuclear accident width penetrate consequence, take emergency corresponding measure.Nuclear accident radioactivity release master
If gaseous state radioactivity release, including through chimney and without this 2 kinds of main delivery modes of chimney.Nuclear power plant sets in blowdown stack
There is radioactivity monitoring system after accident, can directly measure the gaseous state radioactivity release source item through smoke stack emission, but in serious thing
Therefore when may fail, because the accident source of release item needs to obtain by the assessment of collateral information.Accident release source item can utilize heap
Core Condition Monitoring Data is calculated, such as United States Atomic Energy Commission by crash analysis according to the derivation of default accident sequence
" nuclear power station risk report ".However under nuclear power plant's major accident state, reactor core Condition Monitoring Data is imperfect or even root
Originally it can not obtain, cannot accurately obtain accident release source item by simulated accident process.Perfect environment is had around nuclear power plant
Monitoring system, can obtain the continuous emergency monitoring data of multiple spot, and accident emergency monitoring car, emergency sample detection etc. also can provide
A large amount of emergency monitoring data.According to nuclear power plant's ambient radiation emergency monitoring data, by inverting radioactive substance in environment
In transmission process, nuclear accident radioactivity release source item can be effectively obtained.Environmental radiation emergency monitoring data substantially not by
The influence that nuclear accident destroys power plant facility, it is ensured that the reliability of data acquisition.
Have in the prior art through four-dimensional variation (4DVAR) Data Assimilation method, is carried out in conjunction with Mesoscale diffusion model
The radioactivity release Source Term Inversion method for nuclear power plant's accident use adjoint method using nuclear power plant's periphery monitoring data
Four-dimensional variation cost function gradient is iterated to calculate, obtains the best estimate to release source item, it is contemplated that on complete time sequence
Radioactivity transmission process, the estimated result to release source item is global optimum, and application condition is small, protects in continuous time series
It holds physical diffusion model harmony and uniform advantage is utilized to Shock absorption effect.In nuclear accident used in the prior art
Radioactive substance mode RIMPUFF is expanded in China and the widely used nuclear accident early stage radioactive substance atmosphere in Europe
Model is dissipated, the local meteorological data of the model use calculates advection, diffusion and the deposition process of cigarette group, thus to radioactive material
The release of matter is simulated with transmission, can be applied to flat or not sufficiently complex orographic condition.If point of release is each
Discrete instants i releases a cigarette group, then within the scope of mesoscale, the radioactive substance volume activity at k moment at the l of monitoring point
Concentration can be indicated using the summation of all cigarette group contribution margins discharged, be related to the burst size of cigarette group, monitoring point
Position, the center position of cigarette group, inversion height, cigarette rolls into a ball horizontal and vertical diffusion parameter, it is therefore assumed that power plant's periphery monitoring
The quantity L of point, then radioactive substance volume activity concentration can calculate at k moment all monitoring points, and introduce Observation Operators Hk
Indicate the physical relation of radioactive substance volume activity concentration in k moment release rate and environment.It will start to be discharged into the k moment
Radioactivity release source item brings RIMPUFF model of atmospheric diffusion into, to clear out radioactive material plastid collection at the moment monitoring point k
The estimated value of activity concentration.It can know that the method for the prior art belongs to " generation event --- analysis according to the above calculating process
Causality --- take counter-measure " reversely trace to the source traditional mode, however this method is concentrated mainly on by after accident
Long-range circumstances monitoring data and Global Scale propagation model estimate accident source term, not due to nuclear accident early detection data
Degree of certainty is big, and the mode of mesoscale radionuclide is more increasingly complex than large-scale model, therefore there is office in use
It is sex-limited.
Summary of the invention
In order to overcome the drawbacks of the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of source item release based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion
Inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION method, inventive concept are the promotion using current big data technology and computer calculating speed,
A large amount of preparation is carried out in advance, has jumped out the biography of " event --- analysis causality --- occurs and takes counter-measure "
System mode, but according to data " collect --- storage --- analysis --- export " outside the black box of the nuclear accident such as reactor
Process carries out quick response and reply.That is the statistical analysis based on a large amount of Radiation monitoring data and data realizes source item release
Then the inverting of situation obtains more accurate DIFFUSION PREDICTION, and three-dimensional map is combined to realize that the source item of three-dimensional visualization discharges
And the functions such as dynamic demonstration, action decision auxiliary of spread condition.
The purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of source item release inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion
Method includes the following steps:
Step 1, tri- kinds of model of atmospheric diffusion of CFD, Aermod and Calpuff are integrated, the simulation for different scale
It calculates；
Step 2, the concept based on Plume Emergency Planning Zone, for nuclear power plant, region, near region, i.e. inner region 5km, outskirt
10km is individually modeled using tri- kinds of model of atmospheric diffusion of CFD, Aermod and Calpuff in advance；
Step 3 calculates various typical wind fields, under various accident source terms and its release rule and various accident scenarios,
The concentration changing rule for monitoring or simulating at feature locations saves in the database simultaneously；
Step 4, it is automatic anti-according to the concentration changing rule at feature locations in the case of escape of radioactivity accident occurs
Releasing position and accident pattern are performed, and is based on real-time weather forecast information, quickly calculates dispersal direction, the model of the following pollution
It encloses and severity, assistance policymaker orients publication early warning, and the emergency response scheme of formulation most closing to reality in advance.
Preferably, the step 2 includes: to recommend model of atmospheric diffusion by simulation context, i.e. 0-20km recommends CFD atmosphere
Diffusion model；20-50km recommends Aermod model of atmospheric diffusion；Recommend Calpuff model of atmospheric diffusion more than 50km.
Preferably, the step 3 further include: construct a variety of radionuclide databases, facilitate selection multiple pollutant
With a variety of release embodiments of setting.
Preferably, the step 3 further include: establish demographic database and transportation network database.
Preferably, concentration changing rule described in the step 4 is obtained by calculating, real-time display in the calculating process
Concentration results, the expection irradiation dose result of the target area public and emergency plan suggestion.
Preferably, the step 4 further include: terrain data is extracted, is handled and parameter setting, realizes that a step adds
Terrain data needed for carrying；
Preferably, release parallel computation nucleus number as far as possible is largely to shorten runing time.
Preferably, the CFD model of the step 1 and the step 2 is for carrying out positive diffusion simulations, comprising:
It is to be collected, the highest meteorological condition of the construction and screening frequency of occurrences for specific factory site first, is calculated and stored in one by one each
Stable state wind field under a meteorological condition；Then, then it is directed to the source item feature and severity of different accidents, calculates and determines each
The nucleic type of feature monitoring point, concentration range and radiation effect and radiation limit value to each target area；It is last once to send out
When the nuclear accident of raw unknown severity, according to the variation of the concentration of each feature monitoring point, critical nuclide and the difference with critical value
Away from, quickly analysis and judge the safety margin of radiation environment risk, and then infer accident pattern, discharge approach, severity with
And suitable emergency response measure, the CFD model of the step 1 and the step 2 further includes being based on aforementioned calculating
As a result database resource, under accident conditions, by automatically entering the weather information of prediction, advanced hourly simulation and prediction
Diffusion track, distribution characteristics and the radiation effect of radionuclide out, so as to grasp the dynamic letter of environmental risk in advance
Breath, is obviously improved region nuclear accident risk profile pre-alerting ability, and provide emergency response suggestion in emergency situations.
Preferably, ground meteorological data in the input of the Aermod model of the step 1 and the step 2
(SF.OQA), aerological data (UA.OQA), Land Surface Parameters, AERMET, ground meteorological data (.SFC), profile meteorology number
It is that the method operation must count according to (.PFL), pollution sources parameter, grid and the point concerned coordinate, AERMOD and interpretation of result
According to and module, the output of the Aermod model include diffusion module, for calculate given pollutant hour, it is average daily or
Mean annual concentration distribution and plume rise height, dried wet deposition, the output further include " maximum by what is set in control stream
The maximum concentration for being arbitrarily designated quantity and time maximum concentration are picked out in concentration " instruction from various period mean concentration numbers.
Preferably, the input of the Calpuff model of the step 1 and the step 2 includes underlying surface pre-treatment
Module, CALMET module, CALPUFF module and CALOPST post-processing module, the underlying surface pre-processing module receive soil
Ground is using categorical data and terrain elevation data as input, and the data handled by the underlying surface pre-processing module
And treated data are entered the CALMET module simultaneously after MM5 analog result input CALMM5 pre-treatment tool,
Point based data and data Jing Guo CALMET resume module input CALPUFF module, by the number of CALPUFF resume module
According to input CALPOST post-processing module after export final result；The output of the Calpuff model includes post-processing, directly
Result extraction and demonstration are carried out using calpost or mapping software.
Beneficial effects of the present invention:
Using the promotion of current big data technology and computer calculating speed, a large amount of preparation is carried out in advance, is jumped
The traditional mode for out " event --- analysis causality --- occurring and takes counter-measure ", but in the cores thing such as reactor
Therefore the outer process progress quick response and reply according to data " collect --- storage --- analysis --- output " of black box.I.e.
Statistical analysis based on a large amount of Radiation monitoring data and data is realized the inverting of source item release conditions, is then obtained more smart
True DIFFUSION PREDICTION, and three-dimensional map is combined to realize the source item release of three-dimensional visualization and dynamic demonstration, the action of spread condition
The functions such as decision assistant.
According to the following detailed description of specific embodiments of the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, those skilled in the art will be more
The above and other objects, advantages and features of the present invention is illustrated.
Detailed description of the invention
Some specific implementations of the invention are described in detail by way of example and not limitation with reference to the accompanying drawings hereinafter
Example.Identical appended drawing reference denotes same or similar part or part in attached drawing.It should be appreciated by those skilled in the art that
The drawings are not necessarily drawn to scale.Target and feature of the invention will more in view of following description taken together with the accompanying drawings
Obviously, in attached drawing:
Attached drawing 1 is being discharged instead with the source item based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion of 3D display according to the embodiment of the present invention
It drills and DIFFUSION PREDICTION system；
Attached drawing 2 is influence model of the pollutant of the display true to nature on Google Maps according to the embodiment of the present invention to region
It encloses and degree；
Attached drawing 3 is the input file structure type according to the AERMOD model of the embodiment of the present invention；
Attached drawing 4 is according to file path figure where aermodtest compressed package in the software of the embodiment of the present invention；
Attached drawing 5 is the input-output file structure according to CALPUFF model in the software of the embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
One, the mentality of designing of the present embodiment:
There are two types of mentalities of designing for source item release inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION method tool based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion: one
Kind is by CFD (0-20km), Aermod (20-50km, the gaussian model that regulation is recommended) and Calpuff (50-500km, regulation
The lagrangian model of recommendation) three kinds of model of atmospheric diffusion are integrated on a software, and the simulation for different scale calculates,
Although this is not slightly aobvious complicated also easy of integration, every kind of software is required to be separately provided and be debugged, and is available with every kind of model
Advantage, in terms of DIFFUSION PREDICTION have more optimal advantage；Another kind (is met an urgent need based on plume for nuclear power plant near region
The concept for planning area, generally directed to inner region 5km, outskirt 10km), it is exactly individually using CFD (0-20km), Aermod (20-50
Km, the gaussian model that regulation is recommended) and three kinds of Atmospheric Diffusions of Calpuff (50-500km, the lagrangian model that regulation is recommended)
After modeling in advance, various typical wind fields are calculated, under various accident source terms and its release rule and various accident scenarios for model,
The concentration changing rule for monitoring or simulating at feature locations saves in the database simultaneously；Once escape of radioactivity accident occurs,
As long as automatic inversion goes out releasing position and accident pattern, and is based on real-time weather according to the concentration changing rule at feature locations
Forecast information quickly calculates dispersal direction, range and the severity of the following pollution, assists policymaker to orient publication in advance pre-
Alert (for the time difference of winning the race, so range can also be expanded to 30km, similar Fukushima nuclear accident), and formulate most closing to reality
Emergency response scheme.
The target that Atmospheric Diffusion part reaches as far as possible (has needed to configure the meteorological data in Atmospheric Diffusion software
And a small amount of source program exploitation such as terrain data and subsequent calculating correction values module, but requirement of the calpuff to meteorological data
Higher, the huge grid exported in particular for Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) or MM5 is meteorological
Data, read correlated results after can directly converting by calwrf.exe or calmm5.exe, original WRF and MM5 be
It is run under linux system, is converted into the interface program run under Windows, WRFview can be directly integrated, or according to required
Data demand grope self-developing).
Have powerful data input, data analysis and graphics processing function, supports domestic and international multiple standards ground
With the importing and conversion of high-altitude data format, statistical functions and the draftings such as the wind direction for ground meteorological data, wind speed are provided
Wind rose etc.；For the wind of sounding data, temperature, wet Profile Analysis etc. (function outside conventional requirement also needs to reaffirm)；
Have a variety of grid setting functions, can realize net based on Cartesian Coordinategrid, polar grid and discrete dot matrix
Lattice are equidistantly layouted and nearly close remote dredge is layouted, and should also be can use discrete dot matrix realization and only be calculated the function such as the region of factory out-of-bounds
Energy；
As shown in Figure 1, simulated domain itself not only can complete 3D visualization display, i.e. source of release, structures, deposition
Object concentration and the result of contour may be displayed on environment terrain.Referring to fig. 2, should also allow export structures, source of release,
In the information to Google Maps such as detector and concentration, to show pollutant to the coverage and degree in region more life-likely；
A variety of radionuclide databases are constructed, is facilitated and is chosen multiple pollutant and a variety of release embodiments are set, and can be
Concentration results and the expection irradiation dose result and emergency plan suggestion of the target area public are provided in calculating process in real time,
Therefore, demographic database and transportation network database should be also established simultaneously；
Have advanced landform processing capacity and configure and construct huge terrain information database in advance, to reach only
Need setting item position and region latitude and longitude information, software can automatically extract terrain data, handle and parameter is set
It sets, realizes that a step loads required terrain data；
Support the importing of bitmap, CAD and SHP file as Background, CAD the and SHP figure of importing can also be converted into
Model object in software；
Release parallel computation nucleus number as far as possible is largely to shorten runing time；
Have simulation context to recommend model of atmospheric diffusion: 0-20km recommends CFD；20-50km recommends AERMOD；More than 50km
Recommend CALPUFF；
Two, the input-output file structure of CFD model
1, it inputs:
The integrated of the input file of CFD includes the files such as source item, landform, meteorology and solver setting, wherein latter two easy
In realization, but first two location and shape due to being related to Surface structure and land type etc. are arranged and the optimization of grid
And debugging, it is difficult just to set by simply inputting, needs to recall software and construct, be arranged, debug and save in the interface CFD
It is read out and simulates by introducting interface again afterwards.
2, it exports:
The result of CFD output is saved and is exported in the form of destination file.
3, the effect of CFD model:
In positive diffusion simulations, be mainly reflected in following two aspects, be for specific factory site first, collect, building and
Screen the highest meteorological condition of the frequency of occurrences, the stable state wind field being calculated and stored under each meteorological condition one by one；Then, then
For the source item feature and severity of different accidents, calculate and determine the nucleic type of each feature monitoring point, concentration range with
And radiation effect and radiation limit value to each target area.Thus when the nuclear accident of unknown severity occurs, according to each
Feature monitoring point, the concentration variation of critical nuclide and the gap with critical value, quickly analyze and judge the peace of radiation environment risk
Full nargin, and then infer accident pattern, release approach, severity and suitable emergency response measure.On the other hand, base
In the database resource of aforementioned calculated result, under accident conditions, by automatically entering the weather information of prediction, in advance by when
Diffusion track, distribution characteristics and the radiation effect of radionuclide are simulated and predict, so as to grasp environmental risk in advance
Multidate information, be obviously improved region nuclear accident risk profile pre-alerting ability, and provide emergency response in emergency situations and build
View is primarily intended to the promotion using current big data technology and computer calculating speed, carries out a large amount of beam worker in advance
Make, has jumped out the traditional mode of " event --- analysis causality --- occurs and takes counter-measure ", but in reactor etc.
The outer process according to data " collect --- storage --- analysis --- output " of the black box of nuclear accident carries out quick response and answers
It is right.For each specific potential compromising emanation source, possible leakage point is closed on data of monitoring point and is easier really according to respective
It is fixed, for middle large scale, the positioning that nuclear facilities leakage occurs can be determined very much, if more accurate fixed
Position needs the function of being traced to the source according to CFD model of atmospheric diffusion foundation monitoring data progress inverse analog (mainly for chemical plant
Etc. representative gases leakage detailed programs develop and meanwhile the hardware devices such as tie-in sale detector and position optimization), in addition two
Kind modeling precision is poor, and that traces to the source has little significance.
Three, the input-output file structure of AERMOD model
1, input: referring to Fig. 3, wherein ground meteorological data (SF.OQA), aerological data (UA.OQA), earth's surface are joined
Number, AERMET, ground meteorological data (.SFC), profile meteorological data (.PFL), pollution sources parameter, grid and the point concerned coordinate,
AERMOD and interpretation of result are that software runs necessary data and module, and by taking ground meteorological data as an example (EX05_SF.OQA, in detail
See compressed package), required weather information type and quantity are few compared with calpuff and relatively easy, data meaning be easy to analyze and
Conversion, and as regulation recommended models, also there are source file and executable program, it is only necessary to be developed on a small quantity such as nucleic etc.
Under:
It is as follows that it corresponds to meaning:
2, it exports:
As shown in figure 4, being detailed in aermodtest compressed package, diffusion module can calculate the hour of given pollutant, day
Or mean annual concentration is distributed and plume rise height, dried wet deposition." maximum concentration " instruction set in control stream can be from
The maximum concentration (maximum, secondary maximum etc.) for being arbitrarily designated quantity is picked out in various period mean concentration numbers, needs the later period into one
Step is extracted and is shown.
Four, the input-output file structure of CALPUFF model
1, input: as shown in figure 5, include underlying surface pre-processing module, CALMET module, CALPUFF module and
CALOPST post-processing module, the underlying surface pre-processing module receive land use pattern data and terrain elevation data conduct
Input, and data and MM5 analog result input CALMM5 pre-treatment work by underlying surface pre-processing module processing
Treated data are entered the CALMET module simultaneously after tool, point based data and by CALMET resume module
Data input CALPUFF module, export after the data input CALPOST post-processing module by CALPUFF resume module final
As a result.
Calpuff is similar with Aermod, only higher to meteorological and terrain data requirement, therefore is easy self-test and reports an error,
Even be necessarily required to the numerical simulation results such as WRF/MM5 meteorological data as input, terrain data be also it is necessary, still
These data volumes are all larger, and calculating is time-consuming, and data transmitting can not be carried out by way of Email.
2, it exports:
In terms of the post-processing for being mainly reflected in analog result, result directly is carried out using calpost or other mapping softwares
It extracts and demonstrates.
The present embodiment utilizes the promotion of current big data technology and computer calculating speed, carries out a large amount of standard in advance
Standby work, has jumped out the traditional mode of " event --- analysis causality --- occurs and takes counter-measure ", but is reacting
The outer process according to data " collect --- storage --- analysis --- output " of the black boxes of the nuclear accident such as heap carry out quick response with
Reply.That is the statistical analysis based on a large amount of Radiation monitoring data and data realizes the inverting of source item release conditions, then
To more accurate DIFFUSION PREDICTION, and combine the source item release of three-dimensional map realization three-dimensional visualization and the dynamic of spread condition
The functions such as demonstration, action decision auxiliary.
Wherein the application of the big data technology in the present embodiment includes: the model foundation of distributed parameter system to accurate
Description and the process effectively controlled in many physics and engineer application play key effect.Observation is utilized in the present embodiment in real time
It stands or the measurement data of sensor acquisition determines position, spread condition and the pollution level etc. polluted.Such issues that it is simple
Model is provided using Convection-diffusion model, and wherein Convection-Diffusion Model uses Di Lake function, flow velocity, diffusion coefficient, pollution
Object degradation rate is simultaneously aided with boundary condition and forms equation, boundary condition assume C (x, t) the distribution of x=x0 (0 < x0 < L) it is known or
Distribution of the C (x, t) in t=T is it is known that so source item identification indirect problem is exactly to determine source item according to known distribution, i.e., really
Determine the position xi or pollutants emission intensity Mi of pollution sources.Problems can also have another explanation, that is, wish it is following certain
Pollutant concentration when a moment T be C (x, T) or a certain position x0 in space pollutant concentration be C (x0, t), wherein C (x,
T) or C (xo, t) is the concentration distribution for meeting environmental requirement, how to select waste removal position xi and discharge intensity Mi (i=1,
2 ... q), and the solution of problems is increasingly important in nuclear pollution field.It is anti-that source item is carried out using nonlinear optimization and genetic algorithm
It drills, in order to determine pollution source position xi and pollution intensity Mi, needs additional prior condition, the present embodiment selects V (t=T)=V
(x, t) is it is known that will solve V (x, t) is denoted as V=V (x, t, xi, x2 ... xq, M1, M2 ... Mq), according to known additional strip
It is as follows can be switched to nonlinear optimal problem by part for source item identification indirect problem:
min∑[V(xi,T,x1,x2,…xq,M1,M2,…Mq)-V(xi,T)]2 (1)
Even if (1) the smallest xi, Mi, i=1,2 ... the q of formula is exactly the optimal solution of source item identification indirect problem.Since formula (1) is
One nonlinearity optimization problem, using existing method such as gradient method, simplex method solve difficulty very but.Using heredity
Algorithm (GA) simulates the organic evolution process of nature, use for reference living nature natural selection and natural genetic mechanism and developed
The strategy of a kind of problem solving come and random computation model are operated using duplication, intersection, variation etc., breed winner,
Bad the vanquished eliminates, and the same operation of generation generation repetition eventually finds optimal solution or close to optimal solution, maximum feature is direct
Using objective function as search information, some other auxiliary information such as derivative value without objective function is especially non-thread to height
Property optimization problem shows stronger adaptability.Genetic algorithm itself has self-organizing, and the intelligence such as adaptive and self study is special
The easily operated versatile feature of concurrency of point and essence, is applied to machine learning, pattern-recognition, economy
Prediction, optimal control and its analysis of various complex datas and calculating etc..Genetic algorithm is applied to convection current-expansion by the present embodiment
It dissipating equation source item and identifies indirect problem, precision is higher, and it is adaptable, it is easy to computer realization.If formula (1) calculated as heredity
The adaptation value function of method, this is that adjusting parameter keeps (1) formula minimum, can obtain the global best estimates of parameter, specific heredity
Algorithm description is as follows:
(1) initial population is generated, it is uniformly random in given parameter area to generate using real coding mode expression
Initial population, population quantity N.
(2) intersect, the individual selected hybridized two-by-two, generates N number of new individual, hybridization is calculated are as follows:
Xt=rX+ (1-r) Y
Yt=rY+ (1-r) X
Wherein X and Y is parent individuality, and Xt and Yt are newborn offspring individual, and r is the uniform real number on [0,1].
(3) adaptive value, adaptation value function of the formula (1) as genetic algorithm, the driving force as genetic algorithm are calculated.
(4) it selects, to suitable according to from small to large by total 2N individual fitness of filial generation and parent obtained in (3)
Sequence is ranked up, and picks out the individual for coming front as a new generation's individual.
(5) it makes a variation to the individual selected in (4) by certain aberration rate, the mode of variation can be using in original
The mode of a random real number is added on individual.
(6) judge whether group of new generation meets termination condition, as a result meet, stop, otherwise going to (2) and change
In generation, calculates.
Carry out numerical simulation:
Given xi and Mi, can be calculated concentration distribution of the V (x, t) in t=T, and as known sight by formula (1)
Measured data takes T=2.5 in test, and wherein calculated value of the V (x, 2.5) at 9 points can be divided into two kinds of situations:
The first situation: it is assumed that the position of pollution sources xi it is known that be set as x1, x2, x3, x4, needs inverting pollution intensity
M1, M2, M3, M4, using genetic algorithm, parameter setting is as follows:
Group size: 50
Parameter area: 0 < Mi < 10, i=1,2,3,4
Crossover probability P1=0.8
Mutation probability P2=0.2
Termination algebra: 1000
Second situation: it if the xi and Mi in source item are unknown, need to determine xi and Mi using observation data, test
In take x=1,2, T=1, wherein the observation data of V (x, T) are produced as parameter setting for genetic and are and the first situation phase
Together, and 0 < xi < 1, i=1,2 are set.
Since genetic algorithm has fabulous global optimization performance, reduce the risk for falling into local extremum, especially to non-
Linear problem has very strong adaptability, therefore for source item instead along the algorithm of such indirect problem, as long as there is corresponding direct problem
Algorithm, so that it may be combined with genetic algorithm.
Although the present invention is described by reference to specific illustrative embodiments, these implementations are not will receive
Example restriction and only limited by accessory claim.It should be understood by those skilled in the art that can be without departing from this hair
Change and modification are able to carry out to the embodiment of the present invention in the case where bright protection scope and spirit.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of source item release inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION method based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion, it is characterised in that including as follows
Step:
Step 1, tri- kinds of model of atmospheric diffusion of CFD, Aermod and Calpuff are integrated, and the simulation for different scale calculates；
Step 2, the concept based on Plume Emergency Planning Zone, for nuclear power plant, region, near region, i.e. inner region 5km, outskirt 10km are single
Solely modeled in advance using tri- kinds of model of atmospheric diffusion of CFD, Aermod and Calpuff；
Step 3 calculates various typical wind fields, under various accident source terms and its release rule and various accident scenarios, Q-character
It sets the concentration changing rule of place's monitoring or simulation while saving in the database；
Step 4, in the case of escape of radioactivity accident occurs, according to the concentration changing rule at feature locations, automatic inversion goes out to release
It puts position and accident pattern, and is based on real-time weather forecast information, quickly calculate the dispersal direction of the following pollution, range and serious
Degree assists policymaker to orient publication early warning in advance, and formulates the emergency response scheme of most closing to reality.
2. a kind of source item release inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION side based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that the step 2 includes: to recommend model of atmospheric diffusion by simulation context, i.e. 0-20km recommends CFD atmosphere to expand
Dissipate model；20-50km recommends Aermod model of atmospheric diffusion；Recommend Calpuff model of atmospheric diffusion more than 50km.
3. a kind of source item release inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION side based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that the step 3 further include: construct a variety of radionuclide databases, facilitate and choose multiple pollutant and set
Set a variety of release embodiments.
4. a kind of source item release inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION side based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion according to claim 3
Method, it is characterised in that the step 3 further include: establish demographic database and transportation network database.
5. a kind of source item release inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION side based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion according to claim 4
Method, it is characterised in that concentration changing rule described in the step 4 is obtained by calculating, and real-time display is dense in the calculating process
Spend result, the expection irradiation dose result of the target area public and emergency plan suggestion.
6. a kind of source item release inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION side based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion according to claim 5
Method, it is characterised in that the step 4 further include: terrain data is extracted, is handled and parameter setting, realizes step load
Required terrain data.
7. a kind of source item release inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION side based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that release parallel computation nucleus number as far as possible is largely to shorten runing time.
8. a kind of source item release inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION side based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that the CFD model of the step 1 and the step 2 is for carrying out positive diffusion simulations, comprising: first
It is directed to specific factory site before this, collects, the highest meteorological condition of the construction and screening frequency of occurrences, is calculated and stored in each gas one by one
Stable state wind field as under the conditions of；Then, then it is directed to the source item feature and severity of different accidents, calculates and determine each feature prison
The nucleic type of measuring point, concentration range and radiation effect and radiation limit value to each target area；Finally once occurring unknown
When the nuclear accident of severity, according to the variation of the concentration of each feature monitoring point, critical nuclide and the gap with critical value, quickly divide
Analysis and the safety margin for judging radiation environment risk, and then infer accident pattern, release approach, severity and suitably answer
The CFD model of anxious responsive measures, the step 1 and the step 2 further includes the database based on aforementioned calculated result
Resource, by automatically entering the weather information of prediction, advanced hourly simulation and predicts radionuclide under accident conditions
Diffusion track, distribution characteristics and radiation effect are obviously improved region core so as to grasp the multidate information of environmental risk in advance
Accident risk prediction pre-alerting ability, and emergency response suggestion is provided in emergency situations.
9. a kind of source item release inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION side based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that ground meteorological data in the input of the Aermod model of the step 1 and the step 2
(SF.OQA), aerological data (UA.OQA), Land Surface Parameters, AERMET, ground meteorological data (.SFC), profile meteorological data
(.PFL), pollution sources parameter, grid and the point concerned coordinate, AERMOD and interpretation of result be the method run must data and
Module, the output of the Aermod model include diffusion module, for calculating hour of given pollutant, average daily or annual
Concentration distribution and plume rise height, dried wet deposition, the output further include being referred to by " maximum concentration " set in control stream
It enables and picks out the maximum concentration for being arbitrarily designated quantity and time maximum concentration from various period mean concentration numbers.
10. a kind of source item release inverting and DIFFUSION PREDICTION side based on integrated model of atmospheric diffusion according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that the input of the Calpuff model of the step 1 and the step 2 includes underlying surface pre-treatment mould
Block, CALMET module, CALPUFF module and CALOPST post-processing module, the underlying surface pre-processing module receive soil
Use pattern data and terrain elevation data as input, and data by underlying surface pre-processing module processing and
Treated data are entered the CALMET module, point source simultaneously after MM5 analog result input CALMM5 pre-treatment tool
Data and data Jing Guo CALMET resume module input CALPUFF module, the data input by CALPUFF resume module
Final result is exported after CALPOST post-processing module；The output of the Calpuff model includes post-processing, is directly utilized
Calpost or mapping software carry out result extraction and demonstration.
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