CN113239435A - Novel method for determining optimal water discharge speed of reservoir - Google Patents

Novel method for determining optimal water discharge speed of reservoir Download PDF

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CN113239435A
CN113239435A CN202110509063.XA CN202110509063A CN113239435A CN 113239435 A CN113239435 A CN 113239435A CN 202110509063 A CN202110509063 A CN 202110509063A CN 113239435 A CN113239435 A CN 113239435A
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李东贤
李亮
刘志良
林后来
迟世春
杨正权
相彪
邓学晶
杜荣强
贾宇峰
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Qingdao University of Technology
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Abstract

A new method for determining the optimal water discharge speed of a reservoir relates to the technical field of safety risk assessment and comprises the following steps: step 1, establishing a reservoir dam mathematical model, and designing different water discharging speeds under the condition of the same highest water level; step 2, obtaining the positions of the saturation lines corresponding to different time steps at a certain water discharge speed; step 3, acquiring failure samples of the reservoir dam at the infiltration line positions corresponding to different time steps, and calculating corresponding failure probability; step 4, repeating the step 3 to obtain the maximum values of a plurality of failure probabilities; and 5, changing the water discharging speed, obtaining a relation curve between the water discharging speed and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam, and obtaining the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir according to the expected failure probability. The invention provides a novel method for determining the optimal water discharge speed of a reservoir, which can evaluate the optimal water discharge speed and is beneficial to the safety and stability of a dam.

Description

Novel method for determining optimal water discharge speed of reservoir
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of safety risk assessment, in particular to a novel method for determining the optimal water discharge speed of a reservoir.
Background
At present, the frequency and the scale of geological disasters of the side slope of China caused by instability are increased year by year, huge economic losses are caused, the life safety of people is seriously threatened, and in the actual side slope engineering, the side slope instability phenomenon caused by the fact that the side slope is subjected to reservoir water level reduction is often generated, so that the influence of the control of the dam water level reduction speed on the dam stability is particularly important.
The main reason why the water level drops to cause the instability of the dam is that when the water level drops at different speeds, the infiltration line in the dam does not drop along with the water level outside the side slope at the same time, the pore water pressure of the soil body of the dam cannot be dissipated, the static water pressure provided by the water level outside the side slope of the dam is dissipated after the water level drops, the vertical effective normal stress at the bottom of the soil body is reduced, the total stress is kept unchanged, and the instability of the dam can be easily caused.
Because research on the influence of the reservoir water level descending speed on the dam stability is not comprehensive enough, and the selection of the reservoir water discharging speed still faces challenges, a new method for determining the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir is urgently needed.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention provides a novel method for determining the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a new method for determining the optimal water discharge speed of a reservoir comprises the following steps:
step 1, establishing a reservoir dam mathematical model, and designing different reservoir water discharging speeds under the condition of ensuring the same highest water level;
step 2, acquiring infiltration line positions corresponding to different time steps of the reservoir dam at a certain water discharge speed;
step 3, under the infiltration line positions corresponding to different time steps, considering the uncertainty of the reservoir dam material, obtaining a failure sample of the reservoir dam by utilizing a Monte Carlo sampling method and combining a Sbingo method in a limit balance method, and further calculating the failure probability corresponding to the characteristic infiltration line position of the reservoir dam;
step 4, repeating the step 3 to obtain a plurality of failure probabilities, and taking the maximum value of the failure probabilities;
and 5, changing the water discharging speed, obtaining a relation curve between the water discharging speed and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam, and finally obtaining the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir according to the expected failure probability.
Preferably, in the step 1, p reservoir discharge speed values are given and recorded as V1，V2，V3，……Vp。
Preferably, in step 2, the water discharge speed V is setiNext, N time steps A are generated by using the Seep/w module in Geo-studio1，A2......ANAnd the position of the wetting line thereof.
Preferably, in step 3, in time step AiUnder the corresponding saturation line position, M soil layer parameter samples X are generated by Matlab software based on a random method1，X2，……，XMCalculating X based on the Sbingo method in the limit balance method1，X2，……，XMCorresponding factor of safety Fs1，Fs2，……，FsM(ii) a If Fsi<1, then called XiFor failure samples, repeating the above steps to obtain m failure samplesComputing the AiDam failure probability P corresponding to each time stepfi＝m/M。
Preferably, in the step 4, the dam failure probability P corresponding to each of the N time steps of the dam is calculated by repeating the step 3f1，Pf2，Pf3，……，PfN(ii) a Corresponding failure probability P of N time stepsf1，Pf2，Pf3，……，PfNPerforming ascending arrangement and taking the maximum value to obtain the water discharge speed ViCorresponding maximum probability of failure Pi。
Preferably, in the step 5, the steps 2 to 4 are repeated to obtain the maximum failure probability P corresponding to each of P water discharge speed valuesiUsing (V)i，Pi) And i is 1, 2, … p, drawing a relation curve between the water discharging speed and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam, and inquiring the curve to determine the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir according to the expected failure probability.
The novel method for determining the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir has the beneficial effects that: according to the invention, under different water discharge speeds of the reservoir dam, the infiltration line positions of different time steps are obtained, and the relation curve between the water discharge speed of the reservoir and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam is obtained by combining the uncertainty of the dam parameters, so that the optimal water discharge speed of the reservoir can be effectively obtained according to the expected failure probability, and the safety and stability of the dam are facilitated.
Drawings
FIG. 1, a flow chart of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic cross-sectional view of an eastern red reservoir in Ullin city, Shanxi province;
fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of the positions of dam infiltration lines at different time steps of 1 m/d;
fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of the positions of dam infiltration lines at different time steps of 2 m/d;
fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of the positions of the dam infiltration lines at different time steps of V-4 m/d;
FIG. 6 is a graph of maximum failure probability of a reservoir dam at different water discharge speeds;
Detailed Description
In the following, embodiments of the present invention are described in detail in a stepwise manner, which is merely a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.
In the description of the present invention, it should be noted that the terms "upper", "lower", "left", "right", "top", "bottom", "inner", "outer", and the like indicate orientations and positional relationships based on the orientations and positional relationships shown in the drawings, and are only used for describing the present invention and simplifying the description, but do not indicate or imply that the referred device or element must have a specific orientation and a specific orientation configuration and operation, and thus, the present invention is not to be construed as being limited thereto.
A new method for determining the optimal water discharge speed of a reservoir comprises the following steps:
step 1, establishing a mathematical model of a reservoir dam, and designing different reservoir water discharging speeds under the condition of ensuring the same highest water level as shown in figure 1;
step 2, acquiring infiltration line positions corresponding to different time steps of the reservoir dam at a certain water discharge speed;
step 3, under the infiltration line positions corresponding to different time steps, considering the uncertainty of the reservoir dam material, obtaining a failure sample of the reservoir dam by utilizing a Monte Carlo sampling method and combining a Sbingo method in a limit balance method, and further calculating the failure probability corresponding to the characteristic infiltration line position of the reservoir dam;
step 4, repeating the step 3 to obtain a plurality of failure probabilities, and taking the maximum value of the failure probabilities;
step 5, changing the water discharging speed, obtaining a relation curve between the water discharging speed and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam, and finally obtaining the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir according to the expected failure probability;
as shown in figure 1, in the step 1, p reservoir discharge speed values are given and recorded as V1，V2，V3，……Vp；
As shown in FIG. 1, in step 2, the water discharge speed V is setiNext, use Geo-studThe Seep/w module in io generates N time steps A1，A2......ANAnd the position of the saturation line thereof;
as shown in fig. 1, in step 3, in time step aiUnder the corresponding saturation line position, M soil layer parameter samples X are generated by Matlab software based on a random method1，X2，……，XMCalculating X based on the Sbingo method in the limit balance method1，X2，……，XMCorresponding factor of safety Fs1，Fs2，……，FsM(ii) a If Fsi<1, then called XiRepeating the above steps to obtain m failed samples, and calculating AiDam failure probability P corresponding to each time stepfi＝m/M；
As shown in fig. 1, in the step 4, the dam failure probability P corresponding to each of the N time steps of the dam is calculated by repeating the step 3f1，Pf2，Pf3，……，PfN(ii) a Corresponding failure probability P of N time stepsf1，Pf2，Pf3，……，PfNPerforming ascending arrangement and taking the maximum value to obtain the water discharge speed ViCorresponding maximum probability of failure Pi；
As shown in fig. 1, in the step 5, the steps 2 to 4 are repeated to obtain the maximum failure probability P corresponding to each of P water discharge speed valuesiUsing (V)i，Pi) And i is 1, 2, … p, drawing a relation curve between the water discharging speed and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam, and inquiring the curve to determine the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir according to the expected failure probability.
The following example is described with reference to fig. 2.
The dam crest of the dam is 100m in length, the width is 15m, the maximum dam height is 31.5m, the stratum lithology of the dam foundation is a mud-sandstone interbed, and the basic quality level of the strongly weathered rock of the dam foundation is level v; when the dam is constructed, the residual slope soil on the slope surface of the dam abutment is removed, the dam body of the dam is silty sand, and the permeability coefficient is 2.8 multiplied by 10-5cm/s, shear strength internal friction angle
Figure BDA0003059589480000031
The average value is 20 degrees, the standard deviation is 8, the average value of the cohesive force c is 9kpa, the standard deviation is 3.6, and the volume weight gamma is 21kN/m3。
The steps of calculating and evaluating by adopting the new method provided by the invention are as follows:
according to the figure 2, a dam numerical model is established by utilizing a Seep/w module in Geo-studio software, and p is set to be 3 reservoir water discharging speeds V1＝1m/d，V2＝2m/d，V34 m/d; generating N-3 time step samples A by using Seep/w module1，A2，A3And corresponding characteristic wetting line position, at a certain time step AiUnder the condition, the cohesive force c and the internal friction angle of the silty sand are taken into consideration due to the uncertainty of the parameters of the silty sand
Figure BDA0003059589480000041
And (4) regarding the soil as a lognormal random variable, and keeping the volume weight of the soil unchanged. 1000 soil parameter samples X are generated by utilizing Matlab software based on logarithmic random variable method1，X2，……，X1000Calculating 1000 soil body parameter samples corresponding to M-1000 safety factors based on a Sbingo method in a limit balance method, and recording as Fs1，Fs2，……，Fs1000。
In the case of M being 1000 safety factors, if the safety factor Fsi<1, then called XiRepeating the steps to obtain m failure samples in total for the failure samples, and obtaining the failure samples according to a failure probability formula PfiCalculating the failure probability P corresponding to 3 time step samples of the dam according to M/Mf1，Pf2，Pf3The failure probability P corresponding to each time stepf1，Pf2，Pf3Performing ascending arrangement and taking the maximum value to obtain the maximum failure probability P corresponding to the water discharge speeds of different water levelsfmax1＝7.7％，Pfmax2＝12.5％，Pfmax3(V) 25.6%, usingi，Pfmaxi) And (3) drawing a relation curve between the water level discharge speed and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam according to the i-1, 2 and 3, and inquiring the curve to determine the optimal water discharge speed value of the reservoir according to the expected failure probability of the dam. For example, if a damThe expected failure probability of the reservoir is 0.1, and the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir is 1.5 m/d.
By comparison with the prior art, it can be found that: the prior research on the water discharging speed of the reservoir mostly depends on experience to judge, the consideration on the dam stability is not comprehensive enough, and the invention fully considers the influence of each time-step saturation line on the dam stability under different water discharging speeds, calculates the failure probability of each time-step saturation line, takes the maximum value, and obtains the optimal water discharging speed according to the expected failure probability. The failure probability of the dam is gradually increased along with the increase of the water discharging speed through the engineering example verification, finally, the curve can be inquired according to the expected failure probability to determine the optimal water discharging speed, and the effectiveness of the invention is verified through example comparison and analysis.

Claims (6)

1. A new method for determining the optimal water discharge speed of a reservoir is characterized in that: the method comprises the following steps:
step 1, establishing a reservoir dam mathematical model, and designing different reservoir water discharging speeds under the condition of ensuring the same highest water level;
step 2, acquiring infiltration line positions corresponding to different time steps of the reservoir dam at a certain water discharge speed;
step 3, under the infiltration line positions corresponding to different time steps, considering the uncertainty of the reservoir dam material, obtaining a failure sample of the reservoir dam by utilizing a Monte Carlo sampling method and combining a Sbingo method in a limit balance method, and further calculating the failure probability corresponding to the characteristic infiltration line position of the reservoir dam;
step 4, repeating the step 3 to obtain a plurality of failure probabilities, and taking the maximum value of the failure probabilities;
and 5, changing the water discharging speed, obtaining a relation curve between the water discharging speed and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam, and finally obtaining the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir according to the expected failure probability.
2. The method of claim 1 for determining optimal discharge speed of reservoir, characterized by: in the step 1, p reservoir water discharge speed values are given and recorded as V1，V2，V3，……Vp。
3. A new method for determining the optimal discharge speed of a reservoir as claimed in claim 2, characterized in that: in the step 2, the water discharging speed V isiNext, N time steps A are generated by using the Seep/w module in Geo-studio1，A2......ANAnd its corresponding position of the wetting line.
4. A new method for determining the optimal discharge speed of a reservoir as claimed in claim 3, characterized by: in the step 3, in the time step AiUnder the corresponding saturation line position, M soil layer parameter samples X are generated by Matlab software based on a random method1，X2，……，XMCalculating X based on the Sbingo method in the limit balance method1，X2，……，XMCorresponding factor of safety Fs1，Fs2，……，FsM(ii) a If Fsi<1, then called XiRepeating the above steps to obtain m failed samples, and calculating AiDam failure probability P corresponding to each time stepfi＝m/M。
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the method comprises the following steps: in the step 4, the step 3 is repeated to calculate dam failure probability P corresponding to N time steps of the dam respectivelyf1，Pf2，Pf3，……，PfN(ii) a Corresponding failure probability P of N time stepsf1，Pf2，Pf3，……，PfNPerforming ascending arrangement and taking the maximum value to obtain the water discharge speed ViCorresponding maximum probability of failure Pi。
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the method comprises the following steps: in the step 5, the steps 2 to 4 are repeated to obtain the maximum failure probability P respectively corresponding to the P water discharge speed valuesiUsing (V)i，Pi) And i is 1, 2, … p, drawing a relation curve between the water discharging speed and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam, and inquiring the curve to determine the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir according to the expected failure probability.
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