CN113239435B - Method for determining optimal water discharge speed of reservoir - Google Patents
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- CN113239435B CN113239435B CN202110509063.XA CN202110509063A CN113239435B CN 113239435 B CN113239435 B CN 113239435B CN 202110509063 A CN202110509063 A CN 202110509063A CN 113239435 B CN113239435 B CN 113239435B
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- XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N water Substances O XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 title claims abstract description 77
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 38
- 238000007599 discharging Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 29
- 230000008595 infiltration Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 14
- 238000001764 infiltration Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 14
- 238000013178 mathematical model Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 4
- 239000002689 soil Substances 0.000 claims description 10
- 230000001174 ascending effect Effects 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000012614 Monte-Carlo sampling Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 239000000463 material Substances 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000009736 wetting Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000012502 risk assessment Methods 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 3
- 231100000817 safety factor Toxicity 0.000 description 3
- 239000004576 sand Substances 0.000 description 3
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000004048 modification Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000035699 permeability Effects 0.000 description 1
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Abstract
A method for determining the optimal water discharge speed of a reservoir relates to the technical field of safety risk assessment and comprises the following steps: step 1, establishing a reservoir dam mathematical model, and designing different water discharging speeds under the condition of the same highest water level; step 2, obtaining the positions of the saturation lines corresponding to different time steps at a certain water discharge speed; step 3, acquiring failure samples of the reservoir dam at the infiltration line positions corresponding to different time steps, and calculating corresponding failure probability; step 4, repeating the step 3 to obtain the maximum values of a plurality of failure probabilities; and 5, changing the water discharging speed, obtaining a relation curve between the water discharging speed and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam, and obtaining the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir according to the expected failure probability. The invention provides a method for determining the optimal water discharge speed of a reservoir, which can evaluate the optimal water discharge speed and is beneficial to the safety and stability of a dam.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of safety risk assessment, in particular to a method for determining the optimal water discharge speed of a reservoir.
Background
In the actual slope engineering, the slope instability phenomenon caused by reservoir water level reduction is often encountered, so that the influence of the dam water level reduction speed on the dam stability is especially important.
The main reason why the water level drops to cause the instability of the dam is that when the water level drops at different speeds, the infiltration line in the dam does not drop along with the water level outside the side slope at the same time, the pore water pressure of the soil body of the dam cannot be dissipated, the static water pressure provided by the water level outside the side slope of the dam is dissipated after the water level drops, the vertical effective normal stress at the bottom of the soil body is reduced, the total stress is kept unchanged, and the instability of the dam can be easily caused.
Because the research on the influence of the reservoir water level falling speed on the dam stability is not comprehensive enough, the selection of the reservoir water discharge speed still faces challenges, and a method for determining the optimal water discharge speed of the reservoir is urgently needed.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention provides a method for determining the optimal water discharging speed of a reservoir.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a method for determining the optimal water discharge speed of a reservoir comprises the following steps:
and 5, changing the water discharging speed, obtaining a relation curve between the water discharging speed and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam, and finally obtaining the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir according to the expected failure probability.
Preferably, in the step 1, p reservoir discharge speed values are given and recorded as V 1 ，V 2 ，V 3 ，……Vp。
Preferably, in step 2, the water discharge speed V is set i Next, N time steps A are generated by using the Seep/w module in Geo-studio 1 ，A 2 ......A N And the position of the wetting line thereof.
Preferably, in step 3, in time step A i Under the corresponding saturation line position, M soil layer parameter samples X are generated by Matlab software based on a random method 1 ，X 2 ，……，X M Calculating X based on the Sbings method in the extreme balance method 1 ，X 2 ，……，X M Corresponding factor of safety Fs 1 ，Fs 2 ，……，Fs M (ii) a If Fs i <1, then called X i Repeating the above steps to obtain m failed samples, and calculating A i Dam failure probability P corresponding to each time step fi ＝m/M。
Preferably, in the step 4, the dam failure probability P corresponding to each of the N time steps of the dam is calculated by repeating the step 3 f1 ，P f2 ，P f3 ，……，P fN (ii) a Corresponding failure probability P of N time steps f1 ，P f2 ，P f3 ，……，P fN Performing ascending arrangement and taking the maximum value to obtain the water discharge speed V i Corresponding maximum probability of failure P i 。
Preferably, in the step 5, the steps 2 to 4 are repeated to obtain the maximum failure probability P corresponding to each of P water discharge speed values i Using (V) i ，P i ) And i is 1, 2 and … p, drawing a relation curve between the water discharge speed and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam, and inquiring the curve to determine the optimal water discharge speed of the reservoir according to the expected failure probability.
The method for determining the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir has the beneficial effects that: according to the invention, under different water discharge speeds of the reservoir dam, the infiltration line positions of different time steps are obtained, and the relation curve between the water discharge speed of the reservoir and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam is obtained by combining the uncertainty of the dam parameters, so that the optimal water discharge speed of the reservoir can be effectively obtained according to the expected failure probability, and the safety and stability of the dam are facilitated.
Drawings
FIG. 1, a flow chart of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic cross-sectional view of an eastern red reservoir in Ullin city, Shanxi province;
fig. 3, a schematic diagram of the positions of the saturation lines of the dam at different time steps of 1 m/d;
fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of the positions of dam infiltration lines at different time steps of 2 m/d;
fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of the positions of the dam infiltration lines at different time steps of V-4 m/d;
FIG. 6 is a graph of maximum failure probability of a reservoir dam at different water discharge speeds;
Detailed Description
In the following, embodiments of the present invention are described in detail in a stepwise manner, which is merely a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.
In the description of the present invention, it should be noted that the terms "upper", "lower", "left", "right", "top", "bottom", "inner", "outer", and the like indicate orientations and positional relationships based on the orientations and positional relationships shown in the drawings, and are only used for describing the present invention and simplifying the description, but do not indicate or imply that the referred device or element must have a specific orientation and a specific orientation configuration and operation, and thus, the present invention is not to be construed as being limited thereto.
A method for determining the optimal water discharge speed of a reservoir comprises the following steps:
as shown in figure 1, in the step 1, p reservoir discharge speed values are given and recorded as V 1 ，V 2 ，V 3 ，……Vp；
As shown in FIG. 1, in step 2, the water discharge speed V is set i Next, N time steps A are generated by using the Seep/w module in Geo-studio 1 ，A 2 ......A N And the position of the saturation line thereof;
as shown in fig. 1, in step 3, in time step a i Under the corresponding saturation line position, M soil layer parameter samples X are generated by Matlab software based on a random method 1 ，X 2 ，……，X M Calculating X based on the Sbingo method in the limit balance method 1 ，X 2 ，……，X M Corresponding factor of safety Fs 1 ，Fs 2 ，……，Fs M (ii) a If Fs i <1, then called X i Repeating the above steps to obtain m failed samples, and calculating A i Dam failure probability P corresponding to each time step fi ＝m/M；
As shown in fig. 1, in the step 4, the dam failure probability P corresponding to each of the N time steps of the dam is calculated by repeating the step 3 f1 ，P f2 ，P f3 ，……，P fN (ii) a Corresponding failure probability P of N time steps f1 ，P f2 ，P f3 ，……，P fN Performing ascending arrangement and taking the maximum value to obtain the water discharge speed V i Corresponding maximum probability of failure P i ；
As shown in fig. 1, in the step 5, the steps 2 to 4 are repeated to obtain the maximum failure probability P corresponding to each of P water discharge speed values i Using (V) i ，P i ) And i is 1, 2, … p, drawing a relation curve between the water discharging speed and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam, and inquiring the curve to determine the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir according to the expected failure probability.
The following example is described with reference to fig. 2.
The dam crest of the dam is 100m in length, the width is 15m, the maximum dam height is 31.5m, the stratum lithology of the dam foundation is a mud-sandstone interbed, and the basic quality level of the strongly weathered rock of the dam foundation is level v; when the dam is constructed, the residual slope soil on the slope surface of the dam abutment is removed, the dam body of the dam is silty sand, and the permeability coefficient is 2.8 multiplied by 10 -5 cm/s, internal angle of friction of shear strength
The average value is 20 degrees, the standard deviation is 8, the average value of the cohesive force c is 9kpa, the standard deviation is 3.6, and the volume weight gamma is 21kN/m 3 。
The steps of calculating and evaluating by adopting the method provided by the invention are as follows:
according to the figure 2, a dam numerical model is established by utilizing a Seep/w module in Geo-studio software, and p is set to be 3 reservoir water discharging speeds V 1 ＝1m/d，V 2 ＝2m/d，V 3 4 m/d; generating N-3 time step samples A by using Seep/w module 1 ，A 2 ，A 3 And corresponding characteristic wetting line position, at a certain time step A i Under the condition, the cohesive force c and the internal friction angle of the silty sand are taken into consideration due to the uncertainty of the parameters of the silty sand
And (4) regarding the soil as a lognormal random variable, and keeping the volume weight of the soil unchanged. Method based on logarithm random variables1000 soil parameter samples X are generated by utilizing Matlab software 1 ，X 2 ，……，X 1000 Calculating 1000 soil body parameter samples corresponding to M-1000 safety factors based on a Sbingo method in a limit balance method, and recording as Fs 1 ，Fs 2 ，……，Fs 1000 。
In the case of M being 1000 safety factors, if the safety factor Fs i <1, then called X i Repeating the steps to obtain m failure samples in total for the failure samples, and obtaining the failure samples according to a failure probability formula P fi Calculating the failure probability P corresponding to 3 time step samples of the dam according to M/M f1 ，P f2 ，P f3 The failure probability P corresponding to each time step f1 ，P f2 ，P f3 Performing ascending arrangement and taking the maximum value to obtain the maximum failure probability P corresponding to the water discharge speeds of different water levels fmax1 ＝7.7％，P fmax2 ＝12.5％，P fmax3 (V) 25.6%, using i ，P fmaxi ) And (3) drawing a relation curve between the water level discharge speed and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam according to the i-1, 2 and 3, and inquiring the curve to determine the optimal water discharge speed value of the reservoir according to the expected failure probability of the dam. For example, if the expected failure probability of a dam is 0.1, the optimal discharge speed of the reservoir is 1.5 m/d.
By comparison with the prior art, it can be found that: the prior research on the water discharging speed of the reservoir mostly depends on experience to judge, the consideration on the dam stability is not comprehensive enough, and the invention fully considers the influence of each time-step saturation line on the dam stability under different water discharging speeds, calculates the failure probability of each time-step saturation line, takes the maximum value, and obtains the optimal water discharging speed according to the expected failure probability. The failure probability of the dam is gradually increased along with the increase of the water discharging speed through the engineering example verification, finally, the curve can be inquired according to the expected failure probability to determine the optimal water discharging speed, and the effectiveness of the invention is verified through example comparison and analysis.
Claims (5)
1. A method for determining the optimal water discharge speed of a reservoir is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
step 1, establishing a reservoir dam mathematical model, and designing different reservoir water discharging speeds under the condition of ensuring the same highest water level;
step 2, acquiring infiltration line positions corresponding to different time steps of the reservoir dam at a certain water discharge speed;
step 3, under the infiltration line positions corresponding to different time steps, considering the uncertainty of the reservoir dam material, obtaining a failure sample of the reservoir dam by utilizing a Monte Carlo sampling method and combining a Sbingo method in a limit balance method, and further calculating the failure probability corresponding to the characteristic infiltration line position of the reservoir dam;
step 4, repeating the step 3 to obtain a plurality of failure probabilities, and taking the maximum value of the failure probabilities;
step 5, changing the water discharging speed, obtaining a relation curve between the water discharging speed and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam, and finally obtaining the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir according to the expected failure probability;
in the step 3, in the time step A i Under the corresponding saturation line position, M soil layer parameter samples X are generated by Matlab software based on a random method 1 ，X 2 ，……，X M Calculating X based on the Sbings method in the extreme balance method 1 ，X 2 ，……，X M Corresponding factor of safety Fs 1 ，Fs 2 ，……，Fs M (ii) a If Fs i <1, then called X i Repeating the above steps to obtain m failed samples, and calculating A i Dam failure probability P corresponding to each time step fi ＝m/M。
2. The method for determining the optimal discharge speed of the reservoir as claimed in claim 1, wherein: in the step 1, p reservoir water discharge speed values are given and recorded as V 1 ，V 2 ，V 3 ，……Vp。
3. A method for determining an optimal discharge speed of a reservoir as claimed in claim 2, characterized in that: in the step 2, the water discharging speed V is i Next, N time steps A are generated by using the Seep/w module in Geo-studio 1 ，A 2 ......A N And its corresponding position of the wetting line.
4. A method for determining an optimal discharge speed of a reservoir as claimed in claim 3, characterized in that: in the step 4, the step 3 is repeated to calculate dam failure probability P corresponding to N time steps of the dam respectively f1 ，P f2 ，P f3 ，……，P fN (ii) a Corresponding failure probability P of N time steps f1 ，P f2 ，P f3 ，……，P fN Performing ascending arrangement and taking the maximum value to obtain the water discharge speed V i Corresponding maximum probability of failure P i 。
5. The method for determining the optimal discharge speed of the reservoir as claimed in claim 4, wherein: in the step 5, the steps 2 to 4 are repeated to obtain the maximum failure probability P respectively corresponding to the P water discharge speed values i Using (V) i ，P i ) And i is 1, 2, … p, drawing a relation curve between the water discharging speed and the maximum failure probability of the reservoir dam, and inquiring the curve to determine the optimal water discharging speed of the reservoir according to the expected failure probability.
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