CN112907136A - Production control method and system for accessory yield and storage medium - Google Patents
Production control method and system for accessory yield and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a production control method for accessory yield, which comprises the following steps: calculating demand forecasting information of each preset period of various accessories after the current vehicle type stops according to the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume of various accessories of the current vehicle type; acquiring the planned yield of the parts of the stopped vehicle type according to the demand forecasting information, wherein the planned yield of the parts of the stopped vehicle type is divided according to the materials of the parts and/or the warehousing information of the parts; and producing according to the production mode and the planned yield corresponding to the accessory. The invention also discloses a production control system and a storage medium for the accessory yield. The invention aims to meet the requirement of users on timely replacement of the spare parts of the production-stopped vehicles after replacement and improve the satisfaction degree of the users on the after-sale vehicles.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of vehicle accessory production, in particular to a method and a system for controlling the production of accessory output and a storage medium.
Background
The existing vehicle and its accessories have a corresponding production cycle from the beginning of production to the end of production, and after the vehicle type purchased by the user is stopped, the accessories corresponding to the vehicle type will also be continuously stopped from production, so that after some vehicle accessories of the user are damaged or are about to be scrapped, the matched vehicle accessories are generally not easy to find or the found vehicle accessories are damaged if the vehicle accessories are not sold yet along with too long storage time, and therefore the after-sale requirements of the user cannot be met, some potential users may be lost and great influence is brought to the subsequent sale of vehicles of the same brand is generated, and therefore, a relatively proper accessory production control method is urgently needed.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention mainly aims to provide a production control method, a production control system and a storage medium for the yield of accessories, and aims to solve the technical problem that the production-stopped vehicle accessories cannot be fully purchased and sold enough by a production-stopped vehicle user.
To achieve the above object, the present invention provides a production control method of a yield of parts, the method comprising the steps of:
calculating demand forecasting information of each preset period of various accessories after the current vehicle type stops according to the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume of various accessories of the current vehicle type;
acquiring the planned yield of the parts of the stopped vehicle type according to the demand forecasting information;
dividing the planned output of the accessories into different production modes according to the materials of the accessories and/or the warehousing information of the accessories, wherein the production modes comprise a one-time production mode and a batch secondary production mode;
and producing according to the production mode and the planned yield corresponding to the accessory.
Optionally, the step of calculating demand forecast information of each preset period of each accessory after the current vehicle type stops according to the production time of the current vehicle type, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume of each accessory includes:
acquiring the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume of various accessories of the current vehicle type;
obtaining the demand cardinality of various accessories of the stopped-production vehicle type according to the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume;
obtaining demand ratio information corresponding to each preset period of various accessories after the current vehicle type is stopped according to the sales volume;
and obtaining demand forecasting information of each preset period of various accessories after the current vehicle type is stopped according to the demand base number and the demand ratio information.
Optionally, the step of obtaining the demand base numbers of various types of accessories of the stopped-production vehicle type according to the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume comprises:
calculating the average replacement rate of various accessories according to the production time before the current vehicle type stops production, the vehicle yield information and the sales volume of various accessories;
calculating the market reserve of the stopped vehicle type according to the vehicle scrapping information before the current vehicle type is stopped and the vehicle yield information before the current vehicle type is stopped;
and calculating the demand cardinality of various accessories of the stopped-production vehicle type according to the market holding amount and the average replacement rate.
Optionally, the step of obtaining the demand ratio information corresponding to each preset period after the current vehicle type is stopped according to the sales volume includes:
calculating the demand ratio of each accessory in each preset period before the current vehicle model stops production according to the sales volume of each accessory before the current vehicle model stops production;
fitting the demand ratio of each preset period before shutdown into a trend curve according to a time dimension, and obtaining a simulated trend curve of predicted demand of various accessories according to the time dimension after shutdown according to the trend curve and a preset market period rule;
and acquiring the demand ratio information of each preset period of various accessories after the vehicle is stopped according to the simulated trend curve.
Optionally, the step of obtaining demand forecast information of each preset period of each type of accessories after the current vehicle type is stopped according to the demand base number and the demand ratio information includes:
judging whether the number of the preset periods experienced after the current vehicle type is stopped reaches a first preset sequence or not;
if the number of the preset periods experienced after the current vehicle type is stopped does not reach a first preset sequence, acquiring demand quantity prediction information corresponding to the current preset period of various accessories according to the demand base number and the demand ratio information of the current preset period;
if the number of the preset periods experienced after the current vehicle type is stopped reaches a first preset sequence, calculating the average period sales volume of various accessories according to the total sales volume of various accessories of the preset periods with the latest experienced preset number and the preset number, and updating the demand base number to be the average period sales volume;
and acquiring demand forecasting information corresponding to the current preset period of various accessories according to the updated demand base number and the demand ratio information of the current preset period.
Optionally, the step of producing according to the planned yield corresponding to the material of the accessory and/or the warehousing information of the accessory includes:
obtaining the material of the accessory;
determining the longest service time of the accessory corresponding to the accessory according to the material of the accessory;
when the longest service time corresponding to the accessories is longer than a second preset time, acquiring warehousing information of the accessories, wherein the warehousing information comprises the replacement frequency of the accessories and the storage space occupation ratio of the accessories;
determining a production mode corresponding to the planned yield of the accessory according to the replacement frequency of the accessory and the storage space ratio of the accessory;
and when the longest service time corresponding to the accessories is less than a second preset time, producing the planned output corresponding to the accessories in batches according to a first preset number of times, wherein the second preset time is less than the first preset time.
Optionally, the step of determining a production mode corresponding to the planned production volume of the component according to the replacement frequency of the component and the storage space ratio of the component includes:
when the replacement frequency of the accessories is less than a first preset frequency and the storage space occupation ratio of the accessories is less than a second preset occupation ratio, carrying out one-time production on the planned yield of the accessories;
and when the replacement frequency of the accessories is greater than or equal to a first preset frequency or the storage space occupation ratio of the accessories is less than or equal to the first preset occupation ratio, the planned yield of the accessories is produced in batches according to a second preset number of times.
Optionally, the step of dividing the planned yield of the parts into different production modes according to the material of the parts and/or the warehousing information of the parts further includes:
acquiring warehousing information of the accessories, wherein the warehousing information comprises replacement frequency of the accessories and storage space occupation ratio of the accessories;
and when the replacement frequency of the accessories is greater than or equal to a second preset frequency and the occupation ratio of the storage space of the accessories is greater than or equal to the second preset occupation ratio, the planned yield of the accessories is produced in batches according to a third preset number of times.
Further, to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a production control system for a yield of parts, comprising: the production control program of the accessory production quantity is stored on the memory and can be operated on the processor, and when being executed by the processor, the production control program of the accessory production quantity realizes the steps of the production control method of the accessory production quantity.
Further, in order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a storage medium having stored thereon a production control program for parts production, which when executed by a processor, realizes the steps of the production control method for parts production as described above.
The invention provides a production control method of accessory yield, which comprises the steps of calculating demand prediction information of various accessories in each preset period after the current vehicle type is stopped according to the production time of the current vehicle type, vehicle yield information, vehicle scrapping information and sales volumes of various accessories; acquiring the planned output of the parts of the stopped-production vehicle type according to the demand forecasting information, and dividing the planned output of the parts into different production modes according to the material of the parts and/or the warehousing information of the parts, wherein the production modes comprise a one-time production mode and a secondary batch production mode; and then the production is carried out according to the production mode and the planned output corresponding to the accessory. After the production of the vehicle type with the production stoppage is stopped, the production control system of the accessory yield obtains the production plan of the accessories of the vehicle type with the production stoppage, so that the accessory support corresponding to the vehicle can be provided for a user purchasing the vehicle in real time within a certain period, the requirement of the user on the replacement of the vehicle accessories is met, the after-sale satisfaction degree of the user on the vehicle is improved, the brand experience of the user is improved, and the tamping basis is provided for the loyalty fans which become the brand in the future.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a production control system for the production of parts according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart of a first embodiment of the method for controlling the production of an accessory part according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a partial flow diagram of a second embodiment of the method for controlling the production of an accessory part according to the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a partial flow chart of a third embodiment of the method for controlling the production of an accessory part according to the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a partial flow chart of a fourth embodiment of the method for controlling the production of an accessory part according to the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a schematic partial flow chart of a fifth embodiment of the method for controlling the production of an accessory part according to the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a partial flow chart of a sixth embodiment of the method for controlling the production of an accessory according to the present invention.
The implementation, functional features and advantages of the objects of the present invention will be further explained with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Detailed Description
It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention.
The main solution of the embodiment of the invention is as follows:
because the existing vehicle and accessories thereof have corresponding production cycles from production start to production stop, and after the vehicle type purchased by the user stops production, the accessories corresponding to the vehicle type will also stop production, therefore, after the vehicle accessories of some users are damaged or are about to be scrapped, the matched vehicle accessories are not easy to find, or the found vehicle accessories are damaged if not sold after the storage time is too long, so that the after-sale requirements of the user cannot be met, some potential users may be lost, and the subsequent sale of vehicles of the same brand is greatly influenced.
The invention provides a solution, which is characterized in that demand prediction information of each preset period of various accessories after the current vehicle type is stopped is calculated according to the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume of various accessories of the current vehicle type; acquiring the planned output of the parts of the stopped-production vehicle type according to the demand forecasting information, and dividing the planned output of the parts into different production modes according to the material of the parts and/or the warehousing information of the parts, wherein the production modes comprise a one-time production mode and a secondary batch production mode; and then the production is carried out according to the production mode and the planned output corresponding to the accessory. After the production of the vehicle type with the production stoppage is stopped, the production control system of the accessory yield obtains the production plan of the accessories of the vehicle type with the production stoppage, so that the accessory support corresponding to the vehicle can be provided for a user purchasing the vehicle in real time within a certain period, the requirement of the user on the replacement of the vehicle accessories is met, the after-sale satisfaction degree of the user on the vehicle is improved, the brand experience of the user is improved, and the tamping basis is provided for the loyalty fans which become the brand in the future.
As shown in fig. 1, fig. 1 is a schematic structural diagram of a production control system for manufacturing a part according to an embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, the system may include: a processor 1001, such as a CPU, a communication bus 1002, a user interface 1003, a network interface 1004, and a memory 1005. Wherein a communication bus 1002 is used to enable connective communication between these components. The user interface 1003 may include an infrared receiving module for receiving a control command triggered by a user through a remote controller, and the optional user interface 1003 may further include a standard wired interface or a wireless interface. The network interface 1004 may optionally include a standard wired interface, a wireless interface (e.g., WI-FI interface). The memory 1005 may be a high-speed RAM memory or a non-volatile memory (e.g., a magnetic disk memory). The memory 1005 may alternatively be a storage device separate from the processor 1001.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the configuration of the production control system for the production of parts output shown in FIG. 1 does not constitute a limitation of the production control system for the production of parts output, and may include more or fewer components than shown, or some components in combination, or a different arrangement of components.
The specific embodiment of the production control system for accessory production according to the present invention is substantially the same as the following embodiments of the production control method for accessory production, and will not be described herein again.
Referring to fig. 2, the method for production control of the production yield of an accessory of the present invention provides a schematic flow diagram of a first embodiment, the method comprising:
step S100, calculating demand forecasting information of each preset period of various accessories after the current vehicle type stops according to the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume of various accessories of the current vehicle type;
step S200, acquiring the planned yield of the parts of the production stop vehicle type according to the demand forecasting information;
step S300, dividing the planned output of the accessories into different production modes according to the materials of the accessories and/or the warehousing information of the accessories, wherein the production modes comprise a one-time production mode and a batch secondary production mode;
and S400, producing according to the production mode and the planned yield corresponding to the accessory.
In the embodiment, the demand forecasting information of each preset period of each accessory after the current vehicle type stops is calculated according to the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume of each accessory of the current vehicle type, and acquiring the planned output of the parts of the stopped-production vehicle according to the demand forecasting information, wherein the planned output of the parts records the material information of the parts, the warehousing information of the parts and the types of the parts in detail, and then based on the difference of the materials of the vehicle accessories and the difference of the warehousing information of the accessories in the storage process, the planned output of the accessories is divided into different production modes according to the materials of the accessories and/or the warehousing information of the accessories, the production mode comprises a one-time production mode and a batch production mode, and the planned yield of the accessories is controlled to select one mode of the one-time production mode and the batch production mode for batch production.
In the embodiment, demand forecasting information of each preset period of various accessories after the current vehicle type stops is calculated according to the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume of various accessories of the current vehicle type; acquiring the planned output of the parts of the stopped-production vehicle type according to the demand forecasting information, and dividing the planned output of the parts into different production modes according to the material of the parts and/or the warehousing information of the parts, wherein the production modes comprise a one-time production mode and a secondary batch production mode; and then the production is carried out according to the production mode and the planned output corresponding to the accessory. After the production of the vehicle type with the production stoppage is stopped, the production control system of the accessory yield obtains the production plan of the accessories of the vehicle type with the production stoppage, so that the accessory support corresponding to the vehicle can be provided for a user purchasing the vehicle in real time within a certain period, the requirement of the user on the replacement of the vehicle accessories is met, the after-sale satisfaction degree of the user on the vehicle is improved, the brand experience of the user is improved, and the tamping basis is provided for the loyalty fans which become the brand in the future.
Referring to fig. 3, a schematic partial flow chart of a second embodiment is provided for the method for controlling the production of the accessory yield of the present invention, and based on the first embodiment, the step S100 specifically includes:
step S110, obtaining the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume of various accessories of the current vehicle type;
in this embodiment, the current vehicle type is a vehicle with a specific vehicle model that has been stopped currently, and the production time is the total duration from the start of the vehicle being on the market to the stop of the production, for example, 5 years. The vehicle production information is production information produced by the current vehicle model, such as monthly or yearly production data for the current vehicle model. The vehicle scrapping information is scrapping amount information of the vehicle, such as scrapping amount data of the current vehicle type per month or per year. It is understood that the raw data including the production time, the vehicle yield information, etc. may be obtained from a related database of the enterprise, or obtained by other means, and the embodiment is not limited in particular. Meanwhile, it should be noted that the various types of parts can be subdivided not only into the types of parts, such as brake pads, radiators, gearboxes, hubs, engines, front bumpers, rear bumpers, headlamps, etc., but also into the types of specific parts.
Step S120, obtaining the demand cardinality of various accessories of the current vehicle type according to the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume;
it should be noted that the demand cardinality of each type of parts of the current vehicle model is the predicted demand of each type of parts in the current preset period.
Step S130, obtaining demand ratio information corresponding to each preset period after the current vehicle type is stopped according to the sales volume;
in this embodiment, monthly may be used as the preset period, or yearly may be used as the preset period, and those skilled in the art may set the period according to actual needs. It should be noted that, the ratio of the predicted demand of each preset period after the current preset period according to the time sequence to the predicted demand of the current preset period is the demand ratio information.
Step S140, obtaining demand forecasting information of each preset period of various accessories after the current vehicle type is stopped according to the demand base number and the demand ratio information;
in this embodiment, the product of the demand base numbers of the various types of accessories and the demand ratios of the preset periods corresponding to the demand base numbers obtains the predicted demand amounts of the various types of accessories in the preset periods.
The method provides necessary original parameters or original data for a preset forecast demand algorithm by the steps of obtaining the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume of various accessories of the current vehicle type; the demand quantity of various accessories in the current preset period can be accurately predicted by the step of obtaining the demand base numbers of various accessories of the current vehicle type according to the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume; the step of obtaining the demand ratio information corresponding to each preset period of various accessories after the current vehicle type is stopped according to the sales volume can obtain the demand ratio information of each preset period according to the time sequence in the future, the ratio of each preset period of various accessories in the future to the current preset period can be further obtained from the demand ratio information, and the step of obtaining the demand forecast information of each preset period of various accessories after the current vehicle type is stopped according to the demand base number and the demand ratio information can be more accurate; the predicted demand of various accessories in each preset period in the future is finally obtained, effective data support is provided for guaranteeing the market supply demand of various accessories in time after the vehicle stops production in the future, the satisfaction degree and brand experience of after-sale customers are further improved, and meanwhile the purposes of reducing inventory, reducing mobile funds and controlling cost can be achieved.
Referring to fig. 4, a schematic partial flow chart of a third embodiment of the method for controlling the production of accessories according to the present invention is provided, and based on the second embodiment, the step S120 includes:
step S121, calculating the average replacement rate of various accessories according to the production time before the current vehicle type stops production, the vehicle yield information and the sales volume of various accessories;
in this embodiment, the production time is 5 years, the preset period is taken as an example of each year, the average replacement rate of the class a accessories of the current vehicle model is calculated, the vehicle yield per year in the production time is extracted from the vehicle yield information of the current vehicle model, the sales volume of the class a accessories per year in the production time is extracted from the sales volume information of the class a accessories, and then the replacement rate of the class a accessories per year is obtained by dividing the sales volume of the class a accessories per year by the vehicle yield per year. The average replacement rate for class a parts is then obtained by dividing the sum of the replacement rates for class a parts per year by 5. It can be understood that the type a part is one of various parts of the current vehicle model, the average replacement rate of other types of parts of the current vehicle model is obtained, and the average replacement rate of other types of parts can be obtained only by replacing the sales volume of the type a part in the above parameters with the sales volume of other types. The production cycle of the vehicle model listed in the embodiment does not limit the actual specific production cycle of the vehicle model in the present application.
Step S122, calculating to obtain the market reserve of the current vehicle type according to the vehicle scrapping information before the current vehicle type is stopped and the vehicle yield information before the current vehicle type is stopped;
in this embodiment, taking the preset period as each year as an example, the vehicle scrapping amount of each year in the production time is extracted from the vehicle scrapping information, and then the difference between the vehicle scrapping amount of each year and the vehicle yield corresponding to each year is subtracted respectively to obtain the vehicle increment and decrement value of each year. And adding the vehicle increment and decrement values of each year to obtain a sum, namely the market holding amount of the current vehicle type.
And S123, calculating the demand cardinality of various accessories of the current vehicle type according to the market holding amount and the average replacement rate.
It can be understood that the product obtained by multiplying the market reserve of the current vehicle model by the average replacement rate of various accessories of the current vehicle model is the demand base number of various accessories.
Further, according to the second and third embodiments, the step S130 includes:
step S131, calculating according to the sales volume of various accessories before the current vehicle type is stopped to obtain the demand ratio of various accessories in each preset period before the current vehicle type is stopped;
it should be noted that the demand ratio of each preset period of each type of accessory before the current vehicle model stops production, which is calculated according to the sales volume of each type of accessory before the current vehicle model stops production, should be the demand ratio of the sales volume of each preset period (except the first period after the start of production or the sale) of each type of accessory before the current vehicle model stops production relative to the sales volume of the first period after the start of production or the sale, which is calculated according to the sales volume of each type of accessory before the current vehicle model stops production, and if the preset period is yearly, the first preset period is the first year after the current vehicle model starts production or the sale.
In order to understand the present invention more clearly, an example will be described in more detail, and a headlight fitting of a Y-model car is taken as an example, and the sales volume of the fitting from the sale in 2007 to the production stop in 2016 and 1 month is as follows:
at the moment, the demand ratio of each preset period of the headlight fittings of the Y-type automobile before the current automobile model is stopped is as follows:
step S132, the demand ratio of each preset period before production stoppage is fitted into a trend curve according to the time dimension, and a simulated trend curve of predicted demand of various accessories according to the time dimension after production stoppage is obtained according to the trend curve and a preset market period rule;
it should be noted that the preset market cycle rule is a market cycle rule in which the predicted demand of each type of parts is in accordance with a time dimension, and since the market cycle rule of each type of parts is different in quantity, one type of parts should correspond to one preset market cycle rule. The preset market cycle rule comprises two parts, wherein the first part is the preset market cycle rule part before the current vehicle model stops production, and the second part is the preset market cycle rule part after the current vehicle model stops production. It is understood that the preset market cycle law may have various presentation forms, such as a histogram, a graph, a table, and the like; if the type of the accessory is the type a accessory, the preset market cycle rule may be obtained by summarizing the actual market cycle rules of the type a accessories of other various vehicle types under the big data, or may be obtained by summarizing the actual market cycle rules of the type a accessories of other various vehicle types or the type a accessories that can be replaced with each other under the big data, and this embodiment is not specifically limited. It should be noted that the trend curve is used for comparing and analyzing with the first part of the preset market cycle law, so as to determine whether the preset market cycle law can be used as a data reference for predicting the demand of the class a accessories of the current vehicle model. It can be understood that the presentation form of the preset market cycle law is a curve graph, so that the preset market cycle law and the trend curve are more conveniently compared and analyzed.
Further, calculating the matching degree/contact ratio of the first part of the preset market cycle rule and the trend curve through a computer program; judging whether the matching degree/contact ratio of the first part of the preset market cycle rule and the trend curve is greater than or equal to a preset threshold value or not; if the matching degree/contact ratio of the first part of the preset market cycle rule and the trend curve is larger than or equal to a preset threshold value, obtaining a simulated trend curve of the predicted demand according to the time dimension after the A-type part stops production according to the preset market cycle rule; and if the matching degree/contact ratio of the first part of the preset market cycle rule and the trend curve is smaller than a preset threshold value, generating to-be-approved information so that the staff can carry out examination and approval feedback. It should be noted that the to-be-approved information includes options of acceptance and rejection, and if the staff selects the acceptance option, a simulated trend curve of the predicted demand according to the time dimension after the class a parts are shut down is obtained according to the preset market cycle rule; and if the worker selects the refusal item, popping up an editing interface of the preset market cycle rule to receive editing information of the worker on the preset market cycle rule, updating the preset market cycle rule, and obtaining a simulated trend curve of the predicted demand according to the time dimension after the A-type accessory stops production according to the updated preset market cycle rule.
Further, if the matching degree/contact ratio of the first part of the preset market cycle rule and the trend curve is smaller than a preset threshold, the step of generating approval information includes: and if the approval feedback is not received within the preset time, obtaining a simulated trend curve of the predicted demand according to the time dimension after the A-type accessories are shut down according to the preset market cycle rule.
And S133, acquiring the demand ratio information of each preset period of various accessories after the vehicle is stopped according to the simulated tendency curve.
In the embodiment, the intuitive change rule of the demand ratio of various accessories of the current vehicle type before production halt is obtained by the step of fitting the demand ratio of each preset period before production halt into a trend curve according to the time dimension; the change rule of the demand ratio of various accessories of the current vehicle type before the production halt is compared and analyzed with the local part of the preset market cycle rule by the step of obtaining the simulated trend curve of the predicted demand amount according to the time dimension after the production halt of various accessories according to the trend curve and the preset market cycle rule, the matching degree of the preset market cycle rule is evaluated, and corresponding measures are taken according to the matching degree, so that the accuracy and the reliability of the demand ratio information of various preset cycles of various accessories after the production halt are improved.
Referring to fig. 5, a schematic partial flow chart of a fourth embodiment of the method for controlling the production of accessories according to the present invention, based on the second embodiment, the step S140 includes:
step S141, judging whether the number of the preset cycles after the current vehicle type is stopped reaches a first preset sequence;
it is understood that the first preset sequence can be set by those skilled in the art according to actual situations, and the preset period is taken as an example every year in the embodiment, and the first preset sequence is taken as an example 10 th year.
Step S142, if the number of the preset periods experienced after the current vehicle type is stopped does not reach a first preset sequence, acquiring demand quantity prediction information corresponding to the current preset period of various accessories according to the demand base number and the demand ratio information of the current preset period;
it is understood that the time to first calculate the demand base is the current year of outage or the first year after outage. It should be noted that, if the number of the preset periods that the current vehicle model undergoes after stopping does not reach the first preset order, the demand ratio information should be the demand ratio of the predicted demand from the second preset period to the previous preset period of the first preset order preset period when the demand base number is calculated or updated, relative to the predicted demand of the first preset period when the demand base number is calculated or updated. For example, in an embodiment, the current preset cycle sequence is 9 th year, and it is determined that the current vehicle type does not reach the first preset sequence preset cycle after the stoppage, that is, does not reach 10 th year, the demand ratio information is a demand ratio of the predicted demand from 2 nd year to 9 th year after the stoppage to the predicted demand from 1 st year after the stoppage.
In order to clearly understand the present invention, an embodiment will be described in more detail.
Taking the headlight fitting of the Y-model automobile as an example, the demand ratio of the headlight fitting of the Y-model automobile obtained from the simulated tendency curve corresponding to the headlight fitting of the Y-model automobile is as follows:
and at the moment, the product obtained by multiplying the demand base number of the headlight fittings of the Y-type automobile and the demand ratio corresponding to each year is the predicted demand amount corresponding to each year of the headlight fittings of the Y-type automobile.
Step S143, if the number of the preset periods experienced after the current vehicle type is stopped reaches a first preset sequence, calculating the average period sales volume of various accessories according to the total sales volume of various accessories of the preset periods of the recently experienced preset number and the preset number, and updating the demand base number as the average period sales volume;
it will be appreciated that the second time the demand base is calculated or updated is the first preset sequence period. It should be noted that, if the number of the preset periods that have passed after the current vehicle type is stopped reaches the first preset order, the demand ratio information should be the demand ratio of the predicted demand of each preset period after the first preset order period relative to the predicted demand of the first preset order period. For example, in an embodiment, the current preset cycle sequence is 10 th year, and it is determined that the current vehicle type reaches the first preset sequence preset cycle after stopping, that is, reaches 10 th year, and the demand ratio information is a demand ratio of the predicted demand of each year after 10 th year after stopping to the predicted demand of each year after 10 th year after stopping. In an embodiment, if the preset number is set to 3, the average periodic sales volume of each type of parts is calculated according to the total sales volume of each type of parts in 3 years that have recently passed and the preset number, that is, the average periodic sales volume of each type of parts is obtained by adding the sales volumes of each type of parts in 8 th, 9 th and 10 th years and dividing by 3, and then the demand base number is updated to be the average periodic sales volume.
In order to clearly understand the present invention, an embodiment will be described in more detail.
At this time, the demand ratios obtained from the simulated trend curves corresponding to the headlight accessories of the Y-model automobile are as follows (i.e., the demand ratios of the predicted demand amounts of the headlight accessories of the Y-model automobile in the first preset sequence period in each preset period with respect to the predicted demand amounts in the first preset sequence period):
at this time, the product obtained by multiplying the updated demand base number of the headlight fitting of the Y-model automobile by the demand ratio corresponding to each year is the predicted demand amount of the headlight fitting of the Y-model automobile corresponding to each year.
And step S144, acquiring demand forecasting information corresponding to the current preset period of various accessories according to the updated demand base number and the demand ratio information of the current preset period.
The implementation determines whether the requirement cardinal number needs to be updated or not by judging whether the number of the preset cycles experienced after the current vehicle type is stopped reaches a first preset sequence or not; if the number of the preset periods experienced after the current vehicle type is stopped reaches a first preset sequence, calculating to obtain the average period sales volume of various accessories according to the total sales volume of various accessories of the preset periods of the recently experienced preset number and the preset number, and updating the demand base number to the average period sales volume so as to update the demand base number in time, thereby further improving the accuracy and reliability of demand prediction information of various accessories.
In addition, subsequent prediction information is influenced based on uncontrollable factors such as market demand fluctuation and the like, so that the demand quantity prediction information of the accessories is updated according to the actual sales condition after shutdown, the prediction error can be effectively reduced, and the reliability and robustness of the planning method for the production quantity of the vehicle accessories after shutdown are improved. Specifically, the actual sales volume corresponding to the current preset period of various accessories after the current vehicle type is stopped can be obtained in real time, and the prediction error coefficient of the current preset period can be obtained through calculation according to the actual sales volume corresponding to the current preset period and the demand prediction information corresponding to the current preset period, wherein the calculation of the error coefficient can refer to the following calculation model:
ηcurrent＝Scurrent/Lcurrent
μcurrent＝|1-ηcurrent|
wherein eta iscurrentFor the prediction of the difference coefficient, mu, of the current preset periodcurrentIs a prediction error coefficient, L, of the current predetermined periodcurrentIs the predicted demand (L) of the current preset periodcurrentIs not equal to zero), ScurrentIs the actual sales volume of the current preset period.
Further, judging whether the prediction error coefficient is larger than a preset value; if the prediction error coefficient is larger than a preset value, generating early warning information to remind workers, and obtaining correction coefficients of the current preset period of various accessories according to the actual sales volume and the prediction volume information; wherein, the preset value can be set by a person skilled in the art according to the actual situation. The generated early warning information can send early warning signals through the sound generation module and/or the display module of the control terminal, so that the sound generation module sends preset sound corresponding to the early warning prompt and/or the display module displays preset subtitles to execute the early warning prompt, a user is reminded that the accuracy of the demand forecast information is low, and therefore the production plan and/or the purchase plan are adjusted in time, enterprise loss is reduced, and cost is reduced. Wherein, the calculation model of the prediction correction coefficient may be:
wherein, KmThe predicted correction coefficient is the m-th preset period; etamA preset difference coefficient for the mth preset period;
is an average predicted difference coefficient, i.e. is a preset difference coefficient eta of the first preset period1Average value of preset difference coefficients to the m-th preset period.
Furthermore, the demand forecast information of each preset period is corrected according to the correction coefficient, and then the demand forecast information is updated in real time, so that the subsequent production plan and/or purchase plan can be adjusted in time, and the purposes of reducing enterprise loss and reducing cost are achieved.
Referring to fig. 6, which is a schematic partial flow chart of a fifth embodiment of the method for controlling production of accessories according to the present invention, based on any of the above embodiments, the step S300 includes:
step S310, obtaining the material of the accessory and determining the longest service time of the accessory corresponding to the accessory according to the material of the accessory;
when the longest service time corresponding to the accessory is longer than a first preset time, executing step S320 to obtain warehousing information of the accessory, where the warehousing information includes an accessory replacement frequency and an accessory storage space ratio;
and step S330, determining a production mode corresponding to the planned production of the accessories according to the replacement frequency of the accessories and the storage space ratio of the accessories.
In this embodiment, before the mass production of the accessories, the material of the vehicle accessories needs to be determined, the generated accessories correspond to different use validity periods based on the different materials used for producing the accessories, and when the longest use time corresponding to the accessories is longer than a second preset time, the warehousing information corresponding to the accessories needs to be continuously obtained, wherein the warehousing information includes the replacement frequency of the accessories and the storage space occupation ratio of the accessories, and then the production mode of the subsequent accessories is determined according to the replacement frequency and the storage space occupation ratio of the accessories. Specifically, when the replacement frequency of the accessories is less than a first preset frequency and the storage space occupation ratio of the accessories is less than the first preset occupation ratio, the planned output of the accessories is produced at one time, that is, the storage space required by the accessories is small, and the replacement frequency of the accessories is lower than the first preset frequency, so that the accessories are controlled to be produced at one time in batch in order to improve the production efficiency of the accessories. Meanwhile, under the condition that the replacement frequency of the accessories and the storage space ratio of the accessories do not belong to the above condition, namely when the replacement frequency of the accessories is greater than or equal to a first preset frequency or the storage space ratio of the accessories is less than or equal to the first preset ratio, the planned yield of the accessories is controlled to be produced in batches according to a second preset number of times, wherein the replacement frequency of the accessories refers to a time period for the accessories to be continuously produced, stored, sold and scrapped, and the storage space ratio of the accessories refers to a space occupied by the accessories based on the volume of the accessories, so that the maximum space ratio required to be reserved in storage warehouses of different enterprises is calculated.
Further, when the longest usage time corresponding to the component is less than a second preset time, step S340 is executed to batch-produce the planned output corresponding to the component according to a first preset number of times, where the second preset time is less than the first preset time.
In this embodiment, if the longest service time of the accessory is less than a second preset time, where the second preset time is less than the first preset time, that is, the storage effective service life of the class of accessories after leaving the factory is short, and the class of accessories cannot be placed for a long time, during subsequent production, the class of accessories needs to be produced in batches according to a first preset number of times, so as to ensure the quality of the produced accessories, where the first preset number of times is greater than the second preset number of times.
In addition, if the longest service time of the produced vehicle accessories is between the second preset time and the first preset time, one-time production or batch production can be selected, which mainly depends on the storage space reserved by the storage system for storing the accessories, that is, in case of sufficient storage space, one-time batch production of the accessories to be produced can be preferentially selected, otherwise only batch production can be selected.
According to the method, the longest service time of the accessories made of different materials is determined according to different materials of the vehicle accessories and the different expiration dates of the accessories, so that the accessories to be produced are preferentially selected according to the longest service time of the accessories, and the accessory requirements of vehicle users can be well met on the premise of guaranteeing the optimal expiration date of the accessories; meanwhile, the storage information of the accessories is also required to be considered, and then the subsequent selected production mode is comprehensively considered by combining the replacement frequency of the accessories and the storage space ratio of the accessories, so that the aim of reducing the cost of an enterprise is fulfilled.
Referring to fig. 7, which is a partial schematic flow chart of a sixth embodiment of the method for controlling the production of accessories according to the present invention, based on any one of the first to fourth embodiments, the step S300 further includes:
step S350, acquiring warehousing information of the accessories, wherein the warehousing information comprises the replacement frequency of the accessories and the storage space ratio of the accessories;
step S360, when the replacement frequency of the accessories is greater than a second preset frequency and the storage space occupation ratio of the accessories is greater than a second preset occupation ratio, the planned output of the accessories is produced in batches according to a third preset number of times.
In the embodiment, by acquiring the warehousing information retained in the warehousing system, wherein the warehousing information includes the replacement frequency of the accessories and the storage space ratio of the accessories, when the replacement frequency of the accessories is more than a second preset frequency and the storage space occupation ratio of the accessories is more than a second preset occupation ratio, i.e. the warehousing system does not have enough warehousing space, the accessories to be produced are produced in batches according to the third preset times, wherein the third preset times are both smaller than the first preset times and the second preset times, and the batch secondary production can be the production of accessories with the same yield each time, and can also be the production of accessories meeting the planned demand in the corresponding preset period in each batch, in addition, the second preset frequency in this embodiment is greater than the first preset frequency, and the second preset duty ratio is greater than the first preset duty ratio.
Further, when the replacement frequency of the parts and the storage space ratio of the parts do not belong to the present embodiment, a final part production method needs to be determined by further determining the material of the parts.
In this embodiment, the method for producing the accessories is determined by combining the space ratio stored in the actual storage space and the replacement frequency of the accessories, and when the replacement frequency of the accessories is greater than the second preset frequency and the storage space ratio of the accessories is greater than the second preset ratio, that is, when the replacement frequency of the accessories is higher and the storage space ratio is greater than the preset ratio, the planned output of the accessories can be appropriately selected to be reduced, and then the third preset number of batch production is selected to reduce the storage pressure of the storage.
In addition, before the parts are produced, the purchasing condition of the raw materials of the parts is also considered, and in the first condition, the relation between the raw materials of the parts and suppliers in the purchasing process is obtained, and the data of the parts are supplied by obtaining the historical data corresponding to each supplier; determining the supply capacity of each supplier corresponding to various accessories according to the historical supply part data; and determining the supply tasks of various accessories corresponding to each supplier according to the supply capacity and the demand amount forecast, generating an electronic form corresponding to the supply tasks, and sending the electronic form to the account of each corresponding supplier so that the corresponding supplier confirms and replies receipt information. Wherein the provisioning task may include: the required supply quantity of each type of accessories and the required delivery time of each type of accessories, and the receipt information may include: a supply ratio that can complete the requested supply amount and a specific delivery time that can complete the supply ratio. Therefore, receipt information replied by each corresponding supplier is received, purchasing schedules of various accessories are formulated according to the receipt information, namely, the receipt information is fed back to more efficiently communicate with each supplier with cooperative intention, so that a large number of tedious procedures such as interview and offline signing contract are omitted, the efficiency is further improved, meanwhile, on-line communication information such as the receipt information further provides guarantee evidence for cooperation contents of the two parties, and the reliability of the planning method of the yield of the postpartum vehicle accessories is improved.
The second situation is that the process period which needs to be consumed in the production process of the accessory raw materials per se is obtained, and the purchase period of blank materials of various accessories and the processing process period of various accessories are obtained; it is understood that the blank can refer to both the raw material that has not been processed and the portion of the finished product prior to completion. Determining the production cycle of various accessories according to the purchase cycle of the blank material and the processing technology cycle; and formulating the production modes of various accessories according to the production period and the demand forecast information. The production cycle of various accessories is estimated in advance through the steps of the purchase cycle of blank materials of various accessories and the processing process cycle of various accessories; and making a production plan of various accessories according to the production period and the demand forecasting information to ensure that the expected demand of various accessories can be delivered as required.
Furthermore, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a storage medium, on which a production control program for the parts yield is stored, and the production control program for the parts yield, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the production control method for the parts yield as described above.
The specific embodiment of the readable storage medium of the present invention is substantially the same as the embodiments of the method for controlling the production of parts, and will not be described herein again.
It should be noted that, in this document, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or system that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or system. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other like elements in a process, method, article, or system that comprises the element.
The above-mentioned serial numbers of the embodiments of the present invention are merely for description and do not represent the merits of the embodiments.
Through the above description of the embodiments, those skilled in the art will clearly understand that the method of the above embodiments can be implemented by software plus a necessary general hardware platform, and certainly can also be implemented by hardware, but in many cases, the former is a better implementation manner. Based on such understanding, the technical solution of the present invention may be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium (e.g., ROM/RAM, magnetic disk, optical disk) as described above and includes instructions for enabling a terminal device (e.g., a mobile phone, a computer, a server, an air conditioner, or a network device) to execute the method according to the embodiments of the present invention.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and all modifications of equivalent structures and equivalent processes, which are made by using the contents of the present specification and the accompanying drawings, or directly or indirectly applied to other related technical fields, are included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method for production control of a production quantity of accessories, the method comprising the steps of:
calculating demand forecasting information of each preset period of various accessories after the current vehicle type stops according to the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume of various accessories of the current vehicle type;
acquiring the planned yield of the parts of the stopped vehicle type according to the demand forecasting information;
dividing the planned output of the accessories into different production modes according to the materials of the accessories and/or the warehousing information of the accessories, wherein the production modes comprise a one-time production mode and a batch secondary production mode;
and producing according to the production mode and the planned yield corresponding to the accessory.
2. The method for controlling the production of parts according to claim 1, wherein the step of calculating the demand prediction information of each type of parts for each preset period after the stop of the current vehicle type according to the production time of the current vehicle type, the information of the vehicle production, the information of the vehicle scrapping, and the sales volume of each type of parts comprises:
acquiring the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume of various accessories of the current vehicle type;
obtaining the demand cardinality of various accessories of the current vehicle type according to the production time, the vehicle yield information, the vehicle scrapping information and the sales volume;
obtaining demand ratio information corresponding to each preset period of various accessories after the current vehicle type is stopped according to the sales volume;
and obtaining demand forecasting information of each preset period of various accessories after the current vehicle type is stopped according to the demand base number and the demand ratio information.
3. The method for controlling the production of parts according to claim 2, wherein the step of obtaining the demand base numbers of the respective types of parts of the stopped vehicle type based on the production time, the vehicle production amount information, the vehicle scrapping information, and the sales volume comprises:
calculating the average replacement rate of various accessories according to the production time before the current vehicle type stops production, the vehicle yield information and the sales volume of various accessories;
calculating the market reserve of the stopped vehicle type according to the vehicle scrapping information before the current vehicle type is stopped and the vehicle yield information before the current vehicle type is stopped;
and calculating the demand cardinality of various accessories of the stopped-production vehicle type according to the market holding amount and the average replacement rate.
4. The method for controlling the production of parts according to claim 3, wherein the step of obtaining the demand ratio information corresponding to each preset period after the current vehicle type is stopped according to the sales volume comprises:
calculating the demand ratio of each accessory in each preset period before the current vehicle model stops production according to the sales volume of each accessory before the current vehicle model stops production;
fitting the demand ratio of each preset period before shutdown into a trend curve according to a time dimension, and obtaining a simulated trend curve of predicted demand of various accessories according to the time dimension after shutdown according to the trend curve and a preset market period rule;
and acquiring the demand ratio information of each preset period of various accessories after the vehicle is stopped according to the simulated trend curve.
5. The method for controlling the production of parts according to claim 4, wherein the step of obtaining the demand amount prediction information of each preset period of each type of parts after the current vehicle type is stopped according to the demand base number and the demand ratio information comprises:
judging whether the number of the preset periods experienced after the current vehicle type is stopped reaches a first preset sequence or not;
if the number of the preset periods experienced after the current vehicle type is stopped does not reach a first preset sequence, acquiring demand quantity prediction information corresponding to the current preset period of various accessories according to the demand base number and the demand ratio information of the current preset period;
if the number of the preset periods experienced after the current vehicle type is stopped reaches a first preset sequence, calculating the average period sales volume of various accessories according to the total sales volume of various accessories of the preset periods with the latest experienced preset number and the preset number, and updating the demand base number to be the average period sales volume;
and acquiring demand forecasting information corresponding to the current preset period of various accessories according to the updated demand base number and the demand ratio information of the current preset period.
6. The method for controlling the production of accessories according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the step of dividing the planned production of the accessories into different production modes according to the material of the accessories and/or the warehousing information of the accessories comprises:
obtaining the material of the accessory and determining the longest service time of the accessory corresponding to the accessory according to the material of the accessory;
when the longest service time corresponding to the accessories is longer than a first preset time, acquiring warehousing information of the accessories, wherein the warehousing information comprises the replacement frequency of the accessories and the storage space occupation ratio of the accessories;
determining a production mode corresponding to the planned yield of the accessory according to the replacement frequency of the accessory and the storage space ratio of the accessory;
and when the longest service time corresponding to the accessories is less than a second preset time, producing the planned output corresponding to the accessories in batches according to a first preset number of times, wherein the second preset time is less than the first preset time.
7. The method for controlling the production of parts according to claim 6, wherein the step of determining the production method corresponding to the planned production of the parts based on the replacement frequency of the parts and the storage space ratio of the parts includes:
when the replacement frequency of the accessories is less than a first preset frequency and the storage space occupation ratio of the accessories is less than a first preset occupation ratio, carrying out one-time production on the planned yield of the accessories;
and when the replacement frequency of the accessories is greater than or equal to a first preset frequency or the storage space occupation ratio of the accessories is less than or equal to the first preset occupation ratio, the planned yield of the accessories is produced in batches according to a second preset number of times, wherein the second preset number of times is less than the first preset number of times.
8. The method for controlling the production of accessories according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the step of dividing the planned production of the accessories into different production modes according to the material of the accessories and/or the warehousing information of the accessories further comprises:
acquiring warehousing information of the accessories, wherein the warehousing information comprises replacement frequency of the accessories and storage space occupation ratio of the accessories;
and when the replacement frequency of the accessories is greater than a second preset frequency and the proportion of the storage space of the accessories is greater than a second preset proportion, the planned yield of the accessories is produced in batches according to a third preset number of times.
9. A production control system for a parts production, comprising a memory, a processor, and a production control program for a parts production stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the production control program for a parts production realizes the steps of the production control method for a parts production according to any one of claims 1 to 8 when executed by the processor.
10. A storage medium having stored thereon a production control program of a parts yield, which when executed by a processor implements the steps of the production control method of a parts yield according to any one of claims 1 to 8.
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| CN111915254A (en) * | 2020-07-30 | 2020-11-10 | 上海数策软件股份有限公司 | Inventory optimization control method and system suitable for automobile after-sales accessories |
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| CN115358679A (en) * | 2022-10-19 | 2022-11-18 | 安徽中技国医医疗科技有限公司 | Medical material intelligent management method based on cloud warehouse |
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