CN112801330A - Power supply station production operation management index early warning method based on accident tree analysis method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for early warning all hidden danger events of production operation of a village and town power supply station based on an accident tree analysis method. This can be used to envision possible safety incidents that predict team work activities at the rural power supply. The invention can analyze the data information according to the basic material management of the personnel involved in the power supply of the villages and towns and the field management data information of the team operation, thereby realizing the early warning of potential safety hazard events in the production operation of the power supply station of the villages and towns, realizing the troubleshooting and management of the potential safety hazard in the production operation of the power supply station of the country power grid and the towns, and improving the score and the ranking of the safety management index related services in the management of the benchmarks of the power supply station of the country power.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of production operation risk prediction of a village and town power supply station, in particular to a management index early warning method for production operation of the village and town power supply station based on an accident tree analysis method.
Background
At present, the national power grid power supply station of each province, city, town and town carries out the work of the same industry on benchmarking according to five steps of 'selecting a benchmarking, learning a benchmarking, improving benchmarking, controlling the process and summarizing the best', takes the improvement of the method as the core, strengthens the standardized, standardized and institutional construction, and continuously improves the management of the power supply station. Each provincial-level national grid company establishes an index system to carry out benchmarking ranking management on rural power supply stations of the primary level of the whole province, establishes index centers in professional management aspects such as electricity utilization service, marketing information management, high-quality service, electricity charge and electricity price management, electric energy metering, line management, power distribution equipment management, electric duty management, safety management and the like according to the index system for benchmarking of the same industry of the rural power supply stations of the national grid companies, and selects part of professional indexes to carry out benchmarking ranking management according to the current key tasks and the comprehensive management level of the national grid. The safety management of the village and town power supply station refers to the management and control of safety production work, the management targets such as production safety accident control indexes (accident damage rate and various safety production accident occurrence rates) and potential safety hazard investigation and treatment targets need to be set for the village and town power supply, and the safety management is used as an important peer-to-peer index in the country power grid company village and town power supply station peer-to-peer index system. Therefore, the early warning, research, judgment and management of the potential safety hazard in the daily production process of the country and town power supply of the national power grid company are very important. How to achieve early warning of the potential safety hazards of daily business and team operation of a rural power supply station in a more scientific way is an important subject which must be faced by rural power supply of a national power grid company.
The index calculation authenticity of the peer-to-peer management of the country power grid rural power supply station needs to be traceable, the data reality and the fact tracing of index calculation are required, particularly the security management index peer-to-peer is required, the early warning function needs to be carried out according to the actual service data and the fact that team activities relate to security management, the occurrence of security accidents of the rural power supply station is reduced, and the peer-to-peer score ranking is influenced. The existing business management system of the power supply station in the villages and towns judges safety management business indexes to score and rank according to manual input of comprehensive indexes, and does not perform early warning and benchmarking according to the facts of actual occurrence of equipment line safety faults, team operation safety accidents and the like, such as: the team operating personnel appear the incident to power supply station platform district transformer installation operation process, lead to the accident that operating personnel is injured or equipment damages, and the trade is generally only adopted the accident to mark at present and is deducted to divide and rank. Therefore, the defects of subjective judgment and standard management are obvious, analysis and research on faults are usually only carried out by paying attention to certain individual links, only some individual reasons are clearly identified, the whole process of the accidents cannot be observed, the internal rules of safety accidents such as the operation activities of the teams of the power supply station of the villages and towns and the like cannot be mastered, and the potential safety hazards of the operation activities of the teams of the power supply station of the villages and towns cannot be early-warned and investigated.
Therefore, how to provide a method for early warning the production operation management index of the rural power supply station, which can early warn the potential safety hazard, is a problem that needs to be solved urgently by technical personnel in the field.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the invention provides an accident tree analysis method-based method for early warning of production operation management indexes of a rural power supply station, when a basic event occurs, the early warning of the basic event which forms a minimum cut set together with the basic event is called parallel early warning, and a safety early warning management model of the operation activities of a team of the rural power supply station starts from early warning detection and changes accident handling into accident prevention. The accident tree combing is utilized to find out the accident or the main reason which may cause the accident, and provide reliable basis for determining the safety countermeasures, so as to achieve the purpose of predicting and preventing the accident.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
a village and town power supply station production operation management index early warning method based on an accident tree analysis method comprises the following specific steps:
determining an accident factor: determining two types of bottom events of basic management and field management as accident factors;
determining a top event: determining three top events of 'major safety accident', 'major safety accident' and 'general safety accident' of the production operation safety management of the rural power supply station according to the actual situation of the production operation safety management of the national power grid rural power supply station;
drawing an accident tree: drawing an accident tree according to past multi-year accident records, and determining accident factors of three types of top events;
determining the accident factor logical relationship: each accident factor determines a logical relationship by analyzing the basic management structured data and the field management video information unstructured data: "and" means a connection relationship in which an output event occurs only when at least two input events occur simultaneously; "or" means that any one of the at least two input events occurs an output event;
solving a minimum cut set of accident factor combination: the base management and site management in the incident tree involve a set of basic events of the incident factor that must occur when all of these basic events occur, the top events of the security incident. If any basic event removed from a cut set is no longer a cut set, the top event will not occur, and such a cut set is called a minimal cut set, i.e. the minimal combination of basic events that cause the top event to occur;
establishing a minimum cut set principle early warning model: the all-round intelligent application system of the village and town power supply station can generate early warning in time according to data information of personnel and material basic management and team work site management related to power supply of each village and town, and when bottom events of accident factors of top events of 'major safety accident', 'general safety accident' occur, and the early warning is pushed to an all-round intelligent application system early warning center of the village and town power supply station to be displayed;
and predicting the occurrence of the accident according to the establishment of the minimum segmentation set.
Preferably, in the above method for early warning of management indexes of production operations of a rural power supply station based on the accident tree analysis method, the step of determining the logical relationship between the accident factors includes:
each accident factor determines a logical relationship by analyzing the basic management structured data and the field management video information unstructured data: "and" means a connection relationship in which an output event occurs only when at least two input events occur simultaneously; "or" means that any one of the at least two input events occurs an output event.
Preferably, three types of safety accidents, namely 'major safety accident', 'major safety accident' and 'general safety accident', are set as top events of safety management of production operation of a national power grid town power supply station, and the early warning model establishment of the minimum event set related to accident factors in basic management and field management in an accident tree where the three types of top events are possibly required.
According to the technical scheme, compared with the prior art, the invention discloses a method for early warning the total hidden trouble events of the production operation of the rural power supply station based on an accident tree analysis method. This can be used to envision possible safety incidents that predict team work activities at the rural power supply. The all-round intelligent application system of the village and town power supply station can analyze the material basic management and team work site management data information of the personnel involved in the village and town power supply, thereby realizing the early warning of potential safety hazard events in the production operation of the village and town power supply station, realizing the troubleshooting and management of the potential safety hazard in the production operation of the country power grid village and town power supply station, and improving the score and ranking of the safety management index related services in the management of the standard of the country power grid village and town power supply station.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the provided drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The embodiment of the invention discloses an accident tree analysis method-based method for early warning of production operation management indexes of a rural power supply station, which aims to find out basic reasons and basic reason combinations of safety accidents of the group operation activities of the rural power supply station by using an accident tree analysis method (FTA), can be used for index management of corresponding safety accidents and estimation of accidents for potential safety hazard troubleshooting and early warning, and can be used for deducing basic reason matters step by logic from top events, so that qualitative and quantitative results can be obtained, cause events which are not estimated in advance can be found, and authenticity tracing can be carried out on the transmitted safety accidents.
The FTA accident tree analysis takes an event (top event) which is not expected to occur by the system as an analysis object, and by tracing all possible reasons layer by layer until finding out the basic reason (bottom event) of the accident, the logic relation between potential safety hazard investigation basic management and field management influence related to the operation activities of the team of the 'all-round' town power supply station which may exist in the system and the top event is found out, and the logic relation is expressed by an inverted tree graph.
The events at the lowest level, i.e., events that cannot be decomposed any more, are referred to as basic events. After the accident tree is preliminarily built, the accident tree is sorted and simplified, and then qualitative analysis is carried out. The qualitative analysis mainly requires a minimal cut set and a minimal path set, namely a combination mode and a transmission path of the influence of the basic event on the top event.
In addition, the accident tree analysis method (FTA) also provides the relative degree for judging the influence of each basic event on the top event, so that the weakest link of potential safety hazard troubleshooting basic management and field management related to the operation activities of the team of the 'all-round' rural power supply station can be found out, and further an improvement measure is provided, and the peer-to-peer ranking of the next period is improved.
1. Accident factor determination
The universal intelligent application system of the village and town power supply station sets a standard system related to potential safety hazard investigation of power supply station basic management and field management according to a national grid company village and town power supply station homopathy index system, determines two types of bottom events (basic reasons) of potential safety hazard investigation basic management and field management of team work activities of the village and town power supply station as accident factors, and analyzes basic management structured data and field management video information unstructured data of investigation governance records of various service departments and team personnel of the power supply station for the safety accidents of the team work activities of the village and town power supply station by each accident factor, wherein the two types of bottom events are specifically described as follows:
basic management accident factors of a potential safety hazard troubleshooting standard system are as follows:
the site management accident factor of the potential safety hazard troubleshooting standard system is as follows:
various types of potential safety hazard investigation projects specific investigation governing standards and contents (example is basic management A03-A04 project)
2. Determining fault factor logical relationships
There are two logical relationships between the incident factors, namely "AND" and "OR". "and" represents a connection relationship in which an output event occurs when input events occur simultaneously; "or" means that any one of the input events occurs, which may cause an event to occur.
3. Determining top events
Determining three top events of 'major safety accident', 'major safety accident' and 'general safety accident' of the production operation safety management of the rural power supply station according to the actual situation of the production operation safety management of the national power grid rural power supply station;
4. drawing accident tree
The lower diagram is an accident tree diagram about the basic management and the field management of the group operation activities of the 'all-round' town power supply station;
5. calculating accident factor combination minimal cut set
The minimal cut set is the minimal set of basic events that can cause a top event to occur. The most common method for minimizing cut sets is boolean algebraic reduction.
6. Establishing a minimum cut set principle early warning model
The safety accidents of the team operation activities of the village and town power supply station have 10 basic events, the minimum cut sets of the accident tree are obtained by utilizing a Boolean algebra method to have 10 groups, and each group of minimum cut sets is a possible way for the top events to occur. The universal intelligent application system of the rural power supply station can lead to the establishment of a minimum cut set when top events of major safety accidents, major safety accidents and general safety accidents occur according to data information of personnel and material basic management and team work site management related to power supply of each rural power, so that accidents occur, and early warning is needed when basic events occur. And the data is pushed to an intelligent application system early warning center of an all-round rural power supply station for display.
Conclusion of application demonstration
When a basic event occurs, the basic event which forms the minimum cut set together with the basic event is pre-warned to be called parallel pre-warning, and a safety pre-warning management model of the team operation activity of the rural power supply station starts from pre-warning detection and changes accident treatment into accident prevention. The accident tree combing is utilized to find out the accident or the main reason which may cause the accident, and provide reliable basis for determining the safety countermeasures, so as to achieve the purpose of predicting and preventing the accident.
The invention aims to solve the problem that a warning center is not arranged for potential safety hazard management indexes of a country power supply station and a town power supply station of a national grid company, and meanwhile, the authenticity and traceability of data calculated by the safety management indexes can be realized, and the warning research and judgment of potential safety hazards such as a transformer area power supply line, power distribution equipment, electrician shift operation and the like are particularly realized. According to a potential safety hazard troubleshooting standard system established by an accident tree analysis method (FTA), the basic management and the operation field management of each service activity of a power supply station can be standardized, and the service management of line management, power distribution equipment management, electric shift management, safety management and the like of a universal rural power supply station can be more scientifically improved, so that the benchmarking score ranking of the same industry can be improved.
The embodiments in the present description are described in a progressive manner, each embodiment focuses on differences from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other. The device disclosed by the embodiment corresponds to the method disclosed by the embodiment, so that the description is simple, and the relevant points can be referred to the method part for description.
The previous description of the disclosed embodiments is provided to enable any person skilled in the art to make or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention. Thus, the present invention is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.
Claims (3)
1. A safety management index early warning method for production operation of a village and town power supply station based on an accident tree analysis method is characterized by comprising the following specific steps:
determining an accident factor: determining two types of bottom events of basic management and field management as accident factors;
determining a top event: determining three top events of 'major safety accident', 'major safety accident' and 'general safety accident' of the production operation safety management of the rural power supply station according to the actual situation of the production operation safety management of the national power grid rural power supply station;
drawing an accident tree: drawing an accident tree according to past multi-year accident records, and determining accident factors of three types of top events;
determining the accident factor logical relationship: each accident factor determines a logical relationship by analyzing the basic management structured data and the field management video information unstructured data;
solving a minimum cut set of accident factor combination: basic management and field management in the accident tree relate to a basic event set of accident factors, and when the basic events occur, the top event of the safety accident necessarily occurs;
establishing a minimum cut set principle early warning model: the all-round intelligent application system of the village and town power supply station can generate early warning in time according to data information of personnel and material basic management and team work site management related to power supply of each village and town, and when bottom events of accident factors of top events of 'major safety accident', 'major safety accident' and 'general safety accident' occur, the early warning is pushed to an all-round intelligent application system early warning center of the village and town power supply station to be displayed.
2. The method for early warning the safety management index of the production operation of the village and town power supply station based on the accident tree analysis method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the specific steps of determining the logic relationship between the accident factors are as follows: each accident factor determines a logical relationship by analyzing the basic management structured data and the field management video information unstructured data: "and" means a connection relationship in which an output event occurs only when at least two input events occur simultaneously; "or" means that any one of the at least two input events occurs an output event.
3. The method for early warning the production operation management index of the village and town power supply station based on the accident tree analysis method as claimed in claim 1, wherein three types of safety accidents, namely 'major safety accident', 'major safety accident' and 'general safety accident', are set as top events of the production operation safety management of the village and town power supply station of the national power grid, and the early warning model of the minimum event set of the accident factors involved in the basic management and the field management in the accident tree where the requirements of the three types of top events may occur is established.
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Cited By (1)
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| CN116704387A (en) * | 2023-08-04 | 2023-09-05 | 众芯汉创(江苏)科技有限公司 | Power line channel inspection system and method based on video structuring |
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