CN103632310A - Risk evaluation method for operation of large power grid - Google Patents
Risk evaluation method for operation of large power grid Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to a risk evaluation method for the operation of a large power grid. The method comprises the following steps of (1) statistics of fault and risk factors; (2) computation of risk probability; (3) risk quantitative evaluation based on the load loss; (4) classification and result evaluation on risk index. According to the risk evaluation method for the operation of the large power grid, the occurring probability of power system accidents and the number of load loss of the system are combined to form a new quantitative index, so a scheduling person can be helped to perform real-time risk evaluation and analysis, can further comprehensively master the safe operation condition of the power grid, and controls the risk level of the system within a reasonable range by adopting necessary measures, and the occurrence of the disaster fault is avoided. The real-time evaluation and management and control on the risk are realized by a power gird scheduling center and the method belongs to a load loss-based risk evaluation method for the operation of the large power grid.
Description
Technical field
The present invention is a kind of large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment, belongs to the renovation technique of large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment.
Background technology
The safe operation of electric system is the important leverage that social economy develops in a healthy way.Electric power system dispatching center need to make full use of power supply equipment and regulating measure provides qualified electric energy to user, guarantees security of system and electrical network even running.Electric system EMS generally adopts deterministic analytical framework at present, but the method is difficult to the randomness of note and electric power system fault, too conservative, lacks economy.Along with the issue of the disposal of the < < of Chinese Government electric power safety accident emergency and the regulations > > that investigates (No. 599th, State Council Decree), power grid enterprises improve more to the requirement of the grasp of electric power accident risk and prevention and control.
Risk management is an emerging management discipline, a plurality of fields such as be applied in comparatively maturely at present insurance, space flight, prevent and reduce natural disasters.For electrical network, risk comprises two aspects that affect of contingency occurrence probability and accident generation.By risk assessment and risk management, the possibility can identification electrical network failure event occurring, and event severity of consequence, effectively reduce the generation with method Risks event to find a reasonable and economic measure.For strengthening the prevention and control of electric power safety risk, ensure the stable operation of electrical network science, serve better local government and socio-economic development, China's electrical network has progressively been set up Risk Management System.Set up net and economized the three grades of operation of power networks Risk Management Systems in ground, require net to economize three grades, ground scheduling institution when carrying out power system operating mode arrangement, quantitative evaluation safe operation of electric network risk, scientifically determine safe operation of electric network risk class, for scheduling at different levels, carry out power grid security risk assessment work guidance is provided, for the risk existing, formulate control measure and be distributed to relevant unit, thereby improving operation of power networks level of control, guaranteeing power network safety operation and reliable power supply.
But scheduling institution lacks maturation risk assessment tool easily at present, operations staff is when carrying out risk assessment work, first adopt traditional power system safety and stability software for calculation to carry out Static and dynamic safety analysis to electrical network, calculate the safety and stability situation of the rear electrical network of fault (event), the probability occurring according to the regulation evaluate events of the risk quantification method of assessment again, and then draw value-at-risk and risk class, then formulate risk control measure in conjunction with operating experience.Above-mentioned work mainly adopts artificial account form, and work efficiency is lower, and may occur careless omission.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is to consider the problems referred to above and a kind of large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment of dispatching of power netwoks operational centre to the real-time assessment of risk and risk management and control of realizing is provided.
Technical scheme of the present invention is: large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment of the present invention, includes following steps:
1) fault and risk factors statistics;
2) risk probability calculates;
3) assessment of the risk quantification based on load loss;
4) the hierarchical and outcome evaluation of risk indicator.
Above-mentioned steps 1) in, fault and risk factors statistics are to realize by static security analysis and dynamic security analysis, aspect static security, consider system N-1 or N-K fault, by each node voltage in static analysis tools checking system, out-of-limit and apparatus overload possibility, aspect dynamic security, retrains by checking dynamic security given in advance, for system N-1 and part N-K fault, statistics may cause system voltage shakiness and the factor of Transient Instability and the probability of generation thereof.
Above-mentioned steps 2) in, risk probability calculates the computing formula that has two kinds of probable values, respectively baseline risk probability of happening value and problem-targeted risk probability of happening value, baseline risk refers to electrical network normal mode or the risk existing within the long term under normal circumstances, the research range of baseline risk mainly comprises power grid risk and short-term power grid risk in mid-term, the risk that problem-targeted risk refers under improper mode or exists in the lower regular period of particular case
The computing formula of baseline risk probability of happening value is as follows:
Baseline risk probability of happening value=(device type factor) * (fault category factor) * (historical data statistical factor) (1)
The computing formula of problem-targeted risk probability of happening value is as follows:
Problem-targeted risk probability of happening value=(device type factor) * (fault category factor) * (historical data statistical factor) * (weather effect factor) * (equipment deficiency affects factor) * (overhaul management factor) * (repair time factor) * (site operation factor) * (control measure factor) (2)
Above-mentioned steps 2) in, mid-term, power grid risk referred to 2～5 years power grid risks, and short-term power grid risk refers to annual power grid risk.
Above-mentioned steps 2), in, improper mode refers to the situation of system test, overhaul of the equipments, unit exception.
Above-mentioned steps 3) in, risk quantification assessment based on load loss is to consider possibility and the extent of injury of event to system that accident occurs, the index of quantization system risk is proposed, the risk assessment tool of utilization based on probability carries out the analysis of system operation risk, with risk indicator, weighs the impact of different event on overall risk level.
Above-mentioned definition risk and hazard order of severity score value is lost how many products of load by accident probability and its, loses Load Probability index (PLLI).
P wherein
ifor the probability of event i, weight
ifor electrical network subtracts for load weighting coefficient LossofLoad
ibe all node removal of load value sums that i accident causes, unit is MW; { Critical_situation} is the accident set of a series of initiation removal of loads.
Above-mentioned steps 4), in, the hierarchical and outcome evaluation of risk indicator is by losing the judgement of Load Probability index, the risk level of operation of power networks is divided into five risk class: normal risk, normal risk, moderate risk, height risk, high risk.
The threshold value of above-mentioned five risk class is 1000,300,60,20,5.
In above-mentioned these five risk class spaces, for different risks, adopt different colors to show the operation risk horizontal projection of electrical network, think that system call person provides simple and clear early warning information.
The probability that power system accident occurs in the present invention and system lose load number combine new quantitative target of formation, thereby help dispatcher to carry out real-time risk-assessment, and then control the safe operation situation of electrical network comprehensively, a system risk level of taking the necessary measures is controlled at zone of reasonableness, the generation of the disastrous fault of hedging.The present invention realizes dispatching of power netwoks operational centre to the real-time assessment of risk and risk management and control, is a kind of large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment based on load loss.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is methods of risk assessment flow process of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is the technology of the present invention platform architecture schematic diagram;
Fig. 3 is the static failure safety analysis process flow diagram that the present invention has self-correcting function;
Fig. 4 is transient security analysis process figure of the present invention;
Fig. 5 is risk evaluating system pie graph of the present invention.
Embodiment
Be one embodiment of the present of invention below, features, objects and advantages of the invention can be found out from the explanation of embodiment and accompanying drawing.In embodiment, use technology of the present invention, specifically described the methods of risk assessment of operation of power networks.Large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment of the present invention, includes following steps:
1) fault and risk factors statistics;
2) risk probability calculates;
3) assessment of the risk quantification based on load loss;
4) the hierarchical and outcome evaluation of risk indicator.
Above-mentioned steps 1) in, Fig. 1 has shown risk assessment flow process of the present invention: enumerate emergency, calculate event risk, carry out system evaluation, interpretation of result and displaying.The present invention, by the interface of foundation and BPA and EMS program, carrys out trend raw data and the result of calculation of reading system, the model data of electrical network and operation profile data, thus define based on this event of failure of electrical network.For safe operation of electric network risk, check, the Collection and analysis of equipment dependability data is bases of the project implementation.Wherein failure rate of electrical equipment is an important indicator that characterizes this equipment operational reliability, and how the failure rate of equipment is the key of carrying out operation of power networks risk assessment.The present invention starts with from collecting electric network data (flow data etc.) and equipment dependability historical data, designing apparatus Analysis of Reliability Data module.This module will be theoretical according to equipment Analysis of Running Reliability, to the historical data of electrical network visual plant, carry out analysis and calculation, thus accidents happened probability of malfunction, for system risk evaluates calculation module.Determining of power grid accident collection realizes by static security analysis and dynamic security analysis.Aspect static security, consider system N-1 or N-K fault, the out-of-limit and apparatus overload possibility by each node voltage in static analysis tools checking system.Aspect dynamic security, by checking dynamic security given in advance, retrain, for system N-1 and part N-K fault, statistics may cause system voltage shakiness and the factor of Transient Instability and the probability of generation thereof.
Above-mentioned steps 2) in, for risk probability, calculate, the present invention proposes the computing formula of two kinds of probable values, is respectively baseline risk probability of happening value and problem-targeted risk probability of happening value.Baseline risk refers to electrical network normal mode or the risk existing within the long term under normal circumstances, the research range of baseline risk mainly comprises power grid risk in mid-term (2～5 years power grid risks) and short-term power grid risk (annual power grid risk), and formula (1) has provided the computing formula of baseline risk probability of happening value.The risk that problem-targeted risk refers under the improper modes such as system test, overhaul of the equipments, unit exception or exists in the lower regular period of particular case, formula (2) has provided the computing formula of problem-targeted risk probability of happening value.
Baseline risk probability of happening value=(device type factor) * (fault category factor) * (historical data statistical factor) (1)
Problem-targeted risk probability of happening value=(device type factor) * (fault category factor) * (historical data statistical factor) * (weather effect factor) * (equipment deficiency affects factor) * (overhaul management factor) * (repair time factor) * (site operation factor) * (control measure factor) (2)
Above-mentioned steps 3) in, for the risk quantification assessment based on load loss, three main tool that the present invention is integrated: equipment failure tripping operation probability, system load flow and stability analysis instrument, security of system is checked and scheduler module and probability risk assessment again.The ripe analysis tool in industry that has been characterized in integrated, in conjunction with the practical experience of actual production, fully uses simplification technology, in conjunction with optimized algorithm, has realized and has fast and safely checked and dispatch.As shown in Figure 2.
The net result of power system accident harm be embodied in system loss load number.In the present invention, systematic failures cause losing load number specifically by static security, assess and dynamic secure estimation calculates.For static security problem, after assessment fault, whether there is voltage out-of-limit and apparatus overload, and the load loss causing by analytic system N-1 or N-K fault, determine harm value.For dynamic security problem, this project retrains by checking dynamic security given in advance, the voltage stabilization risk of evaluating system and transient stability risk.For the fault that is provided with steady control (SPS) system, the events affecting index while representing generation dynamic stability problem according to the set unit shut algorithm control cost of steady control strategy; Out-of-limit for dynamic security constraint after fault, carry out, in scheduling, determining the electrical network scope that dynamic security is out-of-limit affected, determine that load loss amount calculates electrical network dynamic stability risk indicator with this.Static security analysis module is analyzed User Defined fault.For bus-bar fault, this module is connected excision all circuits with this bus (containing transformer).It will call static security analysis instrument and calculate.If any safety, cross the border, it will allow user select several possible control Correction Strategies, and the calibration result of calculative strategy.User, according to the effect of proofreading and correct, determines concrete control Correction Strategies.As shown in Figure 2.
The present invention adopts the mode that reads calculated off-line result or carry out dynamic security analysis by calling other system, and the interface specification that calls other system.The method of dynamic security venture analysis is carried out in research simultaneously automatically, for follow-up increase automatic dynamic security risk analysis function lays the first stone.As shown in Figure 3.
The present invention considers possibility and the extent of injury of event to system that accident occurs, the index of quantization system risk is proposed, the risk assessment tool of utilization based on probability carries out the analysis of system operation risk, with risk indicator, weighs the impact of different event on overall risk level.The present invention defines risk and hazard order of severity score value and is lost how many products of load by accident probability and its, loses Load Probability index (PLLI).
P wherein
ifor the probability of event i, weight
ifor electrical network subtracts for load weighting coefficient LossofLoad
ibe all node removal of load value sums that i accident causes, unit is MW; { Critical_situation} is the accident set of a series of initiation removal of loads.
Serious situation comprises static security analysis and transient security analysis.Only load loss is to regulate generated energy and load to get for different safety indexs.Risk assessment flow process as shown in Figure 5.Load weighted data in figure will be derived according to safe operation of electric network risk quantification assessment technology standard.
Above-mentioned steps 4) in, for risk classization and result, show, existing risk quantification index can be given quantitative risk result of yardman, but only according to this result, yardman cannot therefrom get information about security level and the risk nargin of system operation.Thereby, risk assessment index is divided, be transformed into the risk class that yardman easily understands and accepts, significant for the practicality that improves risk assessment procedures.The present invention, in conjunction with electrical network actual conditions, is merged risk assessment index, draws operation of power networks risk indicator system and the risk class division methods with directive significance.
As shown in table 1, in the present invention, by losing the judgement of Load Probability index, the risk level of operation of power networks is divided into five risk class: normal risk (grade A), normal risk (grade B), moderate risk, height risk, high risk.The present invention, in conjunction with actual features and the ruuning situation of electrical network, arranges rational threshold value (1000,300,60,20,5), by the operation risk horizontal projection of electrical network in these five risk class spaces, for different risks, adopt different colors to show (redness, crocus, yellow, blueness, white), think that system call person provides simple and clear early warning information.
Table 1 system risk grade classification and demonstration
| Risk class | Risk statement | Lose Load Probability index | Color tips |
| I | High risk | Be more than or equal to 1000 | Red |
| II | Height risk | Be less than 1000 and be more than or equal to 300 | Crocus |
| III | Moderate risk | Be less than 300 and be more than or equal to 60 | Yellow |
| IV | Normal risk (grade A) | Be less than 60 and be more than or equal to 20 | Blue |
| V | Normal risk (grade B) | Be less than 20 and be more than or equal to 5 | White |
Finally, safe operation of electric network analysis and evaluation system is by static security analysis result, dynamic secure estimation result, fault scheduling controlling strategy, the risk indicator that calculates again, event consequence and probabilistic information, and the result integration of root fault analysis and weak link analysis is to risk management system, risk evaluation result is sent to related application system and personnel, realize the information management of operation of power networks risk overall process, auxiliary intelligent decision, operational plan Security Checking etc., with organic coordination and the information sharing that realizes scheduling and produce.
Claims (10)
1. a large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment, is characterized in that including following steps:
1) fault and risk factors statistics;
2) risk probability calculates;
3) assessment of the risk quantification based on load loss;
4) the hierarchical and outcome evaluation of risk indicator.
2. large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, it is characterized in that above-mentioned steps 1) in, fault and risk factors statistics are to realize by static security analysis and dynamic security analysis, aspect static security, consider system N-1 or N-K fault, out-of-limit and the apparatus overload possibility by each node voltage in static analysis tools checking system, aspect dynamic security, by checking dynamic security given in advance, retrain, for system N-1 and part N-K fault, statistics may cause system voltage shakiness and the factor of Transient Instability and the probability of generation thereof.
3. large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, it is characterized in that above-mentioned steps 2) in, risk probability calculates the computing formula that has two kinds of probable values, respectively baseline risk probability of happening value and problem-targeted risk probability of happening value, baseline risk refers to electrical network normal mode or the risk existing within the long term under normal circumstances, the research range of baseline risk mainly comprises power grid risk and short-term power grid risk in mid-term, the risk that problem-targeted risk refers under improper mode or exists in the lower regular period of particular case
The computing formula of baseline risk probability of happening value is as follows:
Baseline risk probability of happening value=(device type factor) * (fault category factor) * (historical data statistical factor) (1)
The computing formula of problem-targeted risk probability of happening value is as follows:
Problem-targeted risk probability of happening value=(device type factor) * (fault category factor) * (historical data statistical factor) * (weather effect factor) * (equipment deficiency affects factor) * (overhaul management factor) * (repair time factor) * (site operation factor) * (control measure factor) (2).
4. large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, is characterized in that above-mentioned steps 2) in, mid-term, power grid risk referred to 2～5 years power grid risks, short-term power grid risk refers to annual power grid risk.
5. large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, is characterized in that above-mentioned steps 2) in, improper mode refers to the situation of system test, overhaul of the equipments, unit exception.
6. large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, it is characterized in that above-mentioned steps 3) in, risk quantification assessment based on load loss is to consider possibility and the extent of injury of event to system that accident occurs, the index of quantization system risk is proposed, the risk assessment tool of utilization based on probability carries out the analysis of system operation risk, with risk indicator, weighs the impact of different event on overall risk level.
7. large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, is characterized in that above-mentioned definition risk and hazard order of severity score value is lost how many products of load by accident probability and its, loses Load Probability indices P LLI,
P wherein
ifor the probability of event i, weight
ifor electrical network subtracts for load weighting coefficient LossofLoad
ibe all node removal of load value sums that i accident causes, unit is MW; { Critical_situation} is the accident set of a series of initiation removal of loads.
8. large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, it is characterized in that above-mentioned steps 4) in, hierarchical and the outcome evaluation of risk indicator is by the judgement to mistake Load Probability index, the risk level of operation of power networks is divided into five risk class: normal risk, normal risk, moderate risk, height risk, high risk.
9. large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, the threshold value that it is characterized in that above-mentioned five risk class is 1000,300,60,20,5.
10. large operation of power networks methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, it is characterized in that the operation risk horizontal projection of electrical network in above-mentioned these five risk class spaces, for different risks, adopt different colors to show, think that system call person provides simple and clear early warning information.
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