CN112418638A - Early warning system and early warning method for operation and maintenance risks of DC power supply system for station - Google Patents
Early warning system and early warning method for operation and maintenance risks of DC power supply system for station Download PDFInfo
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/20—Administration of product repair or maintenance
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J11/00—Circuit arrangements for providing service supply to auxiliaries of stations in which electric power is generated, distributed or converted
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
Abstract
The invention discloses an early warning system and an early warning method for operation and maintenance risks of a station direct-current power supply system, wherein the early warning method comprises the following steps: acquiring information of a direct current system of equipment for a station; calculating the average failure probability of the station equipment according to the informationPAnd consequence valueC(ii) a Calculating a risk value for the station equipmentRWherein, in the step (A),R=C×P(ii) a According to the risk valueRAnd judging the risk level of the station equipment and outputting the risk level. After the risk level is obtained, operation and maintenance personnel can make a corresponding operation and maintenance strategy to guide an operation and maintenance department to overhaul operation and maintenance on the basis of ensuring the reliability level of the power grid by combining the actual condition of equipment. He-ShiCompared with the prior art, the early warning system and the early warning method established by the invention have the advantages of rapid risk identification, high accuracy and strong practicability.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to an early warning system and an early warning method for operation and maintenance risks of a DC power supply system for a station, and belongs to the technical field of analysis of DC power supply systems for stations.
Background
The direct current power supply system of the transformer substation is a provider of power supplies and operation control power supplies of communication and various protection and automation devices in the transformer substation, is a premise of normal operation of intelligent equipment of the transformer substation, and is an important link for ensuring safe and reliable operation of the transformer substation. The direct-current power supply system mainly comprises a direct-current screen and a storage battery 2. The direct current screen is a combination of various devices of a direct current system except a storage battery, has higher integration level, can perform self-checking to a certain extent, and mainly comprises modules such as a charging module, a direct current bus, bus insulation monitoring and battery detection units. In the operation process of the station direct current power supply system, equipment faults or accidents are often caused by various reasons such as inadequate operation, maintenance and management or equipment quality defects. At present, no corresponding literature report exists on how to calculate the risk of the system according to the information of the station direct current power supply system, such as equipment information and operation and maintenance information.
Disclosure of Invention
Based on the above, the invention provides the early warning system and the early warning method for the operation and maintenance risks of the station direct-current power supply system, the risks of the system are calculated according to the data information generated in the operation and maintenance process of the station direct-current power supply system, assistance can be provided for effective maintenance and repair of the system, and the early warning system and the early warning method have the advantages of high accuracy and strong practicability.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
in a first aspect, the present invention provides an early warning method for operation and maintenance risks of a station dc power supply system, where the early warning method includes:
acquiring information of a direct current system of equipment for a station;
calculating the average equipment failure probability P and the consequence value C of the station equipment according to the information;
calculating a risk value R of the station equipment, wherein R ═ C × P;
and judging the risk level of the station equipment according to the risk value R and outputting the risk level.
In a second aspect, the present invention provides an early warning device for operation and maintenance risks of a dc power supply system for a station, wherein the early warning device includes:
an information acquisition module to: acquiring information of a direct current system of equipment for a station;
a first computing module to: calculating the average equipment failure probability P and the consequence value C of the station equipment according to the information;
a second calculation module to: calculating a risk value R of the station equipment, wherein R ═ C × P;
a risk determination module to: and judging the risk level of the station equipment according to the risk value R, and outputting an early warning.
In a third aspect, the present invention provides an early warning system for operation and maintenance risks of a dc power supply system for a station, including a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, where the processor executes the early warning method described above.
In a fourth aspect, the present invention provides a computer readable medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the above-described warning method.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: according to data information generated in the operation and maintenance process of the direct current system of the station equipment, the equipment mean fault probability P and the consequence value C of the station equipment are calculated, the risk value R of the station equipment is further calculated, wherein R is C multiplied by P, and finally the risk level of the station equipment is judged according to the risk value R. After the risk level is obtained, operation and maintenance personnel can make a corresponding operation and maintenance strategy to guide an operation and maintenance department to overhaul operation and maintenance on the basis of ensuring the reliability level of the power grid by combining the actual condition of equipment. Compared with the prior art, the early warning system and the early warning method established by the invention have the advantages of rapid risk identification, high accuracy and strong practicability.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method of an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a structural framework diagram of an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a block diagram of yet another apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of a computer-readable medium according to an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the aforementioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, embodiments accompanied with figures are described in detail below. In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention. This invention may, however, be embodied in many different forms and should not be construed as limited to the embodiments set forth herein, but rather should be construed as broadly as the present invention is capable of modification in various respects, all without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention.
Example one
Referring to fig. 1, an early warning method for operation and maintenance states of a station dc power supply system according to an embodiment of the present invention includes:
s1, acquiring information of the DC system of the station equipment;
in this embodiment, the station equipment includes a dc screen and a storage battery, the information includes original data, operation data, maintenance test data, and other data of the station equipment, and the other data includes conditions of operation, maintenance test, defects, and failures of the same type or similar equipment, changes in an equipment operation environment, and changes in a system operation mode.
Specifically, the raw material of the equipment mainly comprises: nameplates, delivery test reports, delivery acceptance reports, instructions for use and the like. The operation data of the equipment mainly comprises: the running condition of the storage battery, the running condition of the high-frequency switch, the insulation condition of the system, the inspection record of equipment, the defect and the abnormal record of the past year and the like. The overhaul test data of the equipment mainly comprises: a storage battery scheduled inspection report, a direct current cabinet scheduled inspection report, a related counter measure execution condition, equipment technical improvement, a main component replacement condition and the like. Other details of the apparatus mainly include: the conditions of operation, repair, testing, defects and failures of devices of the same type (class); the change of the equipment operation environment and the change of the system operation mode; other factors affecting the safe and stable operation of the direct current system, and the like. The above information may be entered into the system.
S2, calculating the consequence value C and the mean failure probability P of the station equipment according to the information;
about the mean probability of failure P of the equipment
In this embodiment, the average failure probability P of the device is calculated according to the following formula:
in the formula:
f-device status, f: 1-4, 1-normal state, 2-attention state, 3-abnormal state, 4-severe state,
Pf-mean probability of failure of the device in a certain state,
nf-the number of failed devices in a certain state,
nf — total number of devices in a certain state.
The method for judging the state of the direct current power supply device comprises the following steps:
1. determining a quantity of state
The state quantities include raw data, operational data, overhaul test data and other data, as described above.
2. State quantity weight
According to the influence degree of the equipment state quantity on the health state of the direct current system, the system is divided into four grades from light to heavy, namely 1, 2, 3 and 4, and the four grades correspond to different weight coefficients. The weight 1 and the weight 2 correspond to the general state quantity, and the weight 3 and the weight 4 correspond to the important state quantity.
3. Degree of state quantity deterioration
The degree of deterioration of the state quantity is divided into four stages from light to heavy, i, ii, iii and iv. The corresponding basic deduction values are 2, 4, 8 and 10 points.
4. State quantity deduction value
The state quantity credit value is determined by the state quantity deterioration degree and the weight, namely, the state quantity credit value is equal to the real credit value of the state quantity multiplied by the weight coefficient (see table 1). The state quantity is not deducted when being normal.
TABLE 1 weight of state quantity, degradation degree and corresponding deduction table
5. DC system state evaluation
The state evaluation of the direct current system is divided into two parts, namely component evaluation and overall evaluation. The comprehensive level of the equipment configuration, the operation working condition, the defect condition and the like of the direct current screen and the storage battery pack is comprehensively considered.
5.1 deduction standard of state quantity of direct current system
The deduction standard of the state quantity of the direct current system of the transformer substation is shown in a table 2.
TABLE 2 deduction standard of DC system state quantity of transformer substation
5.2 State evaluation method of DC System component
When the single deduction of any state of the station equipment is in the range of the set value of the first single deduction, and the total deduction of the components is in the range of the set value of the first total deduction, the station equipment is judged to be in a normal state; when the single deduction of any state of the station equipment is larger than a first single deduction set value and lower than a second single deduction set value, or when the total deduction of the components is larger than a first total deduction set value, the station equipment is judged to be in an attention state; when the single deduction of any state of the station equipment exceeds a second single deduction set value, judging the station equipment to be in an abnormal state; when the single deduction of any state of the station equipment exceeds a third single deduction set value, judging the station equipment to be in a serious state; wherein the third single deduction setting value is greater than the second single deduction setting value; in the present embodiment, the determination criteria of the dc system component status can be as shown in table 3.
TABLE 3 DC SYSTEM COMPONENT STATE DETERMINATION STANDARD
5.3 Overall evaluation of DC System
The overall evaluation of the dc system should be integrated with the evaluation results of the components thereof. When all the components are evaluated to be in a normal state, the whole is evaluated to be in a normal state; when any one of the component states is an attention state, an abnormal state, or a serious state, the overall evaluation should be the most serious state among them. The overall evaluation total score is the sum of the total scores of the components, and the determination result template can be shown in table 4.
TABLE 4 DC SYSTEM STATE DETERMINATION RESULTS
The mean failure probability P of the device is calculated from the aforementioned device states. When the method is firstly developed, the average fault rate of the station direct current system can be estimated in an empirical assignment mode by combining the defect statistical data of the system direct current system. As shown in table 5.
TABLE 5 mean failure rate of DC system of transformer substation
| DC system for station | Mean failure rate |
| Severe state | 0.50 |
| Abnormal state | 0.25 |
| Attention status | 0.15 |
| Normal state | 0.05 |
(II) consequence value C about station equipment
The consequence value C of the station equipment in this embodiment is calculated according to the following formula:
C＝I×L；
in the formula, I is the importance of equipment, and L is the loss degree of the equipment.
1. Calculation of device importance I
The equipment importance I is calculated as follows:
wherein i is 1-3-1-equipment value, 2-equipment status, 3-load grade
Ii-a certain importance factor;
the equipment importance evaluation mainly considers three factors of equipment value (importance), equipment status (importance) and load grade (importance), and each factor is divided into a plurality of grades.
1.1 value of the plant
The equipment value of the substation dc system is shown in table 6. The value of the equipment reflects the inherent cost of the equipment and the maintenance or replacement cost after damage, and the cost P according to the equipmentmValue of the apparatus I1The calculation method is shown in Table 6.
TABLE 6 equipment value of the DC system of the substation
| Device name | Cost of equipment | Value of the apparatus |
| Direct current system | Pm | I1＝10*Pm |
1.2 device status
The equipment status is divided into four levels of 'critical, important, concerned and general' by evaluating the defect condition of the equipment.
In the present embodiment, it is determined that, in case that the direct-current system of the substation is configured as a single set, the direct-current system of the substation is configured as a double set, and the direct-current system of the substation is configured as a single set, the direct-current system of the substation is defaulted as a concerned device; if the direct current system of the transformer substation is in double-set configuration, the equipment status of the direct current system of the transformer substation needs to be determined by considering factors such as the voltage level of the transformer substation, the device fault condition and the like, and the principle is as follows:
1) when a set of storage battery or charger cannot be used, the direct current system of a transformer substation with the voltage of 500kV or more is key equipment.
2) When a set of storage battery or charger cannot be put into use, the direct current system of the 220kV transformer substation is important equipment.
3) A direct current system of a 110kV transformer substation is concerned when a set of storage batteries or a charger cannot be put into use.
4) The double charging and double electric direct current system can be general equipment when being put into use.
The corresponding value ranges of the equipment status at different levels are shown in table 7.
TABLE 7 status and value ranges of the devices
| Device status | Value range I2 |
| Key equipment | 10000 |
| Important equipment | 500 |
| Attention device | 200 |
| General apparatus | 50 |
1.3 load rating
The value of the load level is set with reference to table 8.
TABLE 8 load rating and value range
| Load rating | Value range I3 |
| Super load | 10000 |
| First order load | 550 |
| Second order load | 60 |
| Three-stage load | 10 |
According to the importance degree of the load supplied by the transformer substation where the equipment is located on national economy and social development, the load grades are divided into a special grade, a first grade, a second grade and a third grade (based on the important user list of the market division in this year). During power conservation, a list of important users for power conservation should be additionally provided as a basis for dynamic risk assessment.
After the values of the three factors of the equipment value, the equipment status and the load grade of the direct current equipment are determined, the importance of the equipment can be calculated. The importance evaluation of the substation dc system is shown in table 9:
TABLE 9 evaluation of importance of DC systems
2. Calculation of the degree of loss L of the plant
The loss factor takes into account three factors, namely equipment cost, personal safety and electric power safety. The degree of loss is a weighted sum of the degrees of loss due to each factor. The equipment loss degree L is calculated as follows:
in the formula, j is 1-3-1-equipment cost, 2-personal safety, 3-electric power safety
LjThe degree of loss of a factor.
Degree of loss L of a certain factorjThe calculation is carried out according to the following formula:
in the formula, j is 1-3-loss factor, 1-equipment cost, 2-personal safety, and 3-electric power safety
k is 1-12-loss degree, and the loss grade of equipment cost, personal safety and electric power safety loss factors is 12 grades in total
IOFjkLoss value of loss factor at a certain level
POFjk-probability of occurrence of loss factor at a certain level.
The values of the loss factors are referred to in table 10.
TABLE 10 loss factor values
The probability of the three loss factors of the transformer substation needs to be obtained by statistical analysis of historical data, and the method comprises the following steps:
defining a statistical range;
determining a statistical time;
determining the type of equipment;
collecting fault information;
and analyzing the statistical samples, and classifying according to three factors of equipment safety, personal safety and electric power safety.
The loss rating for each sample was determined and added to 1 at the corresponding location in table 11.
TABLE 11 Accident event statistics
After the loss value and the occurrence probability of the loss factors of the substation direct current equipment at each loss level and the weight of the loss degree caused by each loss factor are determined, the loss degree of each factor can be calculated, and the calculation result is shown in table 12.
TABLE 12 calculation of loss degree
S3, calculating a risk value R of the station equipment, where R ═ C × P;
the equipment risk assessment analyzes possible consequences (loss) caused by equipment failure and the possibility (probability) of failure occurrence, and further comprehensively assesses the size of the equipment risk and determines the level of the equipment risk. The product of possible consequences (loss) and the fault occurrence probability is used as a basis in the equipment risk assessment quantification process.
R＝C×P
In the formula, R is the risk value of the plant
C-consequence value
P-mean failure probability of the device.
And S4, judging the risk level of the station equipment according to the risk value R, and outputting an early warning.
In this embodiment, the equipment risk is divided into four stages, i stage (major risk), ii stage (major risk), iii stage (general risk), and iv stage (normal risk), according to the size of the equipment risk value, and represented by red, orange, yellow, and green in sequence, as shown in table 13.
TABLE 13 device Risk level partitioning
According to the magnitude of the equipment risk value and the actual condition of the equipment, on the basis of ensuring the reliability level of the power grid, a corresponding operation maintenance strategy is formulated to guide an operation maintenance department to perform maintenance operation.
Example two
Referring to fig. 2, a second embodiment of the present invention provides an early warning device for operation and maintenance risks of a dc power supply system for a station, where the early warning device includes: an information acquisition module to: acquiring information of a direct current system of equipment for a station; a first computing module to: calculating the average equipment failure probability P and the consequence value C of the station equipment according to the information; a second calculation module to: calculating a risk value R of the station equipment, wherein R ═ C × P; a risk determination module to: and judging the risk level of the station equipment according to the risk value R, and outputting an early warning.
Since the apparatus described in the second embodiment of the present invention is an apparatus used for implementing the method of the first embodiment of the present invention, based on the method described in the first embodiment of the present invention, a person skilled in the art can understand the specific structure and the deformation of the apparatus, and thus the details are not described herein. All the devices adopted in the method of the first embodiment of the present invention belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
EXAMPLE III
Referring to fig. 3, it should be noted that, based on the same inventive technique as in the first embodiment and the second embodiment, a third embodiment of the present invention provides a system, including: radio frequency circuit 310, memory 320, input unit 330, display unit 340, audio circuit 350, WiFi module 360, processor 370, and power supply 380. The storage 320 stores a computer program that can be executed on the processor 370, and the processor 370 executes the computer program to implement the steps S1, S2, S3, and S4 according to one embodiment.
In a specific implementation process, when the processor executes the computer program, either implementation manner of the first embodiment or the second embodiment can be realized.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the device configuration shown in fig. 3 is not intended to be limiting of the device itself and may include more or fewer components than those shown, or some components may be combined, or a different arrangement of components.
The following describes the components of the computer device in detail with reference to fig. 3:
the rf circuit 310 may be used for receiving and transmitting signals, and in particular, receives downlink information of a base station and then sends the received downlink information to the processor. In general, the radio frequency circuitry 310 includes, but is not limited to, at least one amplifier, transceiver, coupler, low noise amplifier, duplexer, and the like.
The memory 320 may be used to store software programs and modules, and the processor 370 may execute various functional applications of the computer device and data processing by operating the software programs and modules stored in the memory 320. The memory 320 may mainly include a program storage area and a data storage area, wherein the program storage area may store an operating system, an application program required for at least one function, and the like; the storage data area may store data created according to use of the computer device, and the like. Further, the memory 320 may include high speed random access memory, and may also include non-volatile memory, such as at least one magnetic disk storage device, flash memory device, or other volatile solid state storage device.
The input unit 330 may be used to receive input numeric or character information and generate key signal inputs related to user settings and function control of the computer apparatus. Specifically, the input unit 330 may include a keyboard 331 and other input devices 332. The keyboard 331 is capable of collecting input operations of a user thereon and driving a corresponding connection device according to a preset program. The output information is collected by the keyboard and then fed to the processor 370. The input unit may include other input devices 332 in addition to the keyboard 331. In particular, other input devices 332 may include, but are not limited to, one or more of a touch panel, function keys (such as volume control keys, switch button lights), a trackball, a mouse, a joystick, and the like.
The display unit 340 may be used to display information input by a user or information provided to the user and various menus of the computer device. The display unit 340 may include a display panel 341, and optionally, the display panel 341 may be configured in the form of a liquid crystal display, an organic light emitting diode, or the like. Further, the keyboard 331 may cover the display panel 341, and when the keyboard 331 detects a touch operation on or near the keyboard 331, the keyboard 331 transmits the touch event to the processor 370 to determine the type of the touch event, and then the processor 370 provides a corresponding visual output on the display panel 341 according to the type of the input event. Although the keyboard 331 and the display panel 341 are shown in fig. 3 as two separate components to implement input and output functions of the computer device, in some embodiments, the keyboard 331 and the display panel 341 may be integrated to implement input and output functions of the computer device.
WiFi belongs to short-distance wireless transmission technology, and computer equipment can help a user to receive and send e-mails, browse webpages, access streaming media and the like through the WiFi module 360, and provides wireless broadband internet access for the user. Although the WiFi module 360 is shown in fig. 3, it is understood that it does not belong to the essential constitution of the computer device, and may be omitted entirely as needed within the scope not changing the essence of the invention.
The processor 370 is a control center of the computer device, connects various parts of the entire computer device using various interfaces and lines, performs various functions of the computer device and processes data by running or executing software programs and/or modules stored in the memory, and calling data stored in the memory 320, thereby monitoring the computer device as a whole. Alternatively, processor 320 may report one or more processing units; preferably, the processor 320 may be integrated with an application processor, wherein the application processor mainly processes an operating system, a user interface, an application program, and the like.
The computer device also includes a power supply 380 (such as a power adapter) for powering the various components, which may preferably be logically connected to the processor 370 through a power management system.
Example four
Based on the same inventive concept, as shown in fig. 4, the fourth embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium 400, on which a computer program 411 is stored, and when the computer program 411 is executed by a processor, the steps S1, S2, S3 and S4 of the first embodiment are implemented.
In a specific implementation process, when the computer program 411 is executed by a processor, the implementation of any one of the first and second embodiments may be implemented.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, hard disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
The above-mentioned embodiments only express several embodiments of the present invention, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the present invention. It should be noted that, for a person skilled in the art, several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the inventive concept, which falls within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present patent shall be subject to the appended claims.
Claims (9)
1. A method for early warning operation and maintenance risks of a station direct-current power supply system comprises the following steps:
acquiring information of a direct current system of equipment for a station;
calculating the average equipment failure probability P and the consequence value C of the station equipment according to the information;
calculating a risk value R of the station equipment, wherein R ═ C × P;
and judging the risk level of the station equipment according to the risk value R and outputting the risk level.
2. The early warning method for operation and maintenance risks of the station direct-current power supply system according to claim 1, wherein the station equipment comprises a direct-current screen and a storage battery, the information comprises original data, operation data, overhaul test data and other data of the station equipment, and the other data comprises conditions of operation, overhaul, defect and failure of the same type or similar equipment, changes of equipment operation environment and changes of system operation modes.
3. The early warning method for the operation and maintenance risks of the station direct-current power supply system according to claim 1, wherein the mean failure probability P of the equipment is calculated according to the following formula:
in the formula:
f-device status, f: 1-4, 1-normal state, 2-attention state, 3-abnormal state, 4-severe state,
Pf-mean probability of failure of the device in a certain state,
nf-the number of failed devices in a certain state,
nf — total number of devices in a certain state.
4. The early warning method for the operation and maintenance risks of the station DC power supply system according to claim 3, wherein the determination of the equipment state comprises determination of DC system components and determination of the whole DC system, and the determination method of the DC system components comprises:
when the single deduction of any state of the station equipment is in the range of the set value of the first single deduction, and the total deduction of the components is in the range of the set value of the first total deduction, the station equipment is judged to be in a normal state;
when the single deduction of any state of the station equipment is larger than a first single deduction set value and lower than a second single deduction set value, or when the total deduction of the components is larger than a first total deduction set value, the station equipment is judged to be in an attention state;
when the single deduction of any state of the station equipment exceeds a second single deduction set value, judging the station equipment to be in an abnormal state;
when the single deduction of any state of the station equipment exceeds a third single deduction set value, judging the station equipment to be in a serious state; wherein the third single deduction setting value is greater than the second single deduction setting value;
the overall judgment method of the direct current system comprises the following steps: when all the components are evaluated to be in a normal state, the whole is evaluated to be in a normal state; when any part state is an attention state, an abnormal state or a serious state, the whole is evaluated as the most serious state, and the equipment state in the formula is the state of the whole direct current system.
5. The early warning method for the operation and maintenance risks of the station direct-current power supply system according to claim 1, wherein the consequence value C of the station equipment is calculated according to the following formula:
C＝I×L；
in the formula, I is the importance of equipment, and L is the loss degree of the equipment;
wherein the equipment importance I is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein i is 1-3-1-equipment value, 2-equipment status, 3-load grade,
3-load grade, taking 2,
Ii-a certain importance factor;
the equipment loss degree L is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein j is 1-3-1-equipment cost, 2-personal safety, 3-electric safety,
Ljthe degree of loss of a factor.
6. The method for warning the operation and maintenance risks of the DC power supply system for the station as claimed in claim 5, wherein the loss degree L of the certain factorjThe calculation is carried out according to the following formula:
in the formula, j is 1-3-loss factor, 1-equipment cost, 2-personal safety, and 3-electric power safety
k is 1-12-loss degree, and the loss grade of equipment cost, personal safety and electric power safety loss factors is 12 grades in total
IOFjkLoss value of loss factor at a certain level
POFjk-probability of occurrence of loss factor at a certain level.
7. A device for early warning of operation and maintenance risks of a station direct-current power supply system, wherein the device comprises:
an information acquisition module to: acquiring information of a direct current system of equipment for a station;
a first computing module to: calculating the average equipment failure probability P and the consequence value C of the station equipment according to the information;
a second calculation module to: calculating a risk value R of the station equipment, wherein R ═ C × P;
a risk determination module to: and judging the risk level of the station equipment according to the risk value R, and outputting an early warning.
8. An early warning system for operation and maintenance risks of a station-oriented direct-current power supply system, comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and capable of running on the processor, wherein the processor executes the method of any one of claims 1 to 6.
9. A computer-readable medium, on which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the method of any one of claims 1 to 6.
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