CN112749475A - Analysis method for determining continuous dam break risk of cascade reservoir group - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for analyzing a continuous dam break risk of a cascade reservoir group. The method comprises three modules of breach flood calculation, dam break flood evolution and dam overflow risk analysis, and provides a technical method for solving the formation and the evolution of the continuous dam break flood of the cascade reservoir group and the risk analysis thereof from the perspective of risk quantification and early warning prevention. The method comprises the following steps that a process of calculating the burst flow by adopting a wide top weir formula is adopted for burst flood calculation, a hyperbolic model is adopted for simulating a burst scouring erosion process, and a simplified Bishop method is adopted for calculating a burst expansion process; the dam break flood routing is calculated by adopting a finite volume method of a central format based on a numerical difference method of an HLL format; and (4) analyzing the risk of the dam by adopting a time infinitesimal-based method, and simultaneously solving a water balance equation and a storage and discharge equation of the reservoir time by time. The method can rapidly analyze and evaluate the risks of continuous overtopping or dam break of the damming dam, the earth-rock dam, the concrete dam and the like in the cascade reservoir group of the drainage basin, and provides technical support for improving the working efficiency of emergency rescue and rapidly formulating a rescue disposal scheme.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of water conservancy and hydropower engineering, in particular to a method for analyzing the risk of continuous dam break of a cascade reservoir group, which is a flood risk analysis and numerical calculation technology for continuous dam break of a drainage basin and can provide quantitative technical support for risk design of cascade hydraulic buildings, safety management of the cascade reservoir group, emergency disposal of a dammed lake in the drainage basin, emergency management of a cascade hydropower station and formulation of flood control schemes.
Background
The cascade reservoir group is a basic form of river water resource development and is a necessary choice for large-scale water energy resource development. Over 9.8 thousands of reservoir dams are built in China to form a series of reservoir groups. The reservoir groups play irreplaceable roles in flood control and disaster reduction, clean power supply, ecological safety guarantee, energy conservation and emission reduction and the like, but if a cascade collapse accident is caused by inefficacy, the subsequent result loss is also very disastrous. At present, the research results of single-step dam break are more, but the research results of analyzing the continuous dam break risk of a multi-step reservoir group are less. Disastrous events such as rainstorm flood, earthquake, landslide and gambling constitute great continuous collapse risks to cascade reservoir groups in a drainage basin, for example, the rubble barrier lake in the drainage basin of the cowstall in 2014 and the Baige barrier lake in the upper reaches of the Jinshajiang in 2018 pose great threats to downstream cascade reservoir groups or hydropower stations.
The existing dam break numerical value calculation method mainly adopts a simple mathematical model to simulate a dam break process, does not consider the physical mechanism of the dam break, cannot simulate the dam break flood process more appropriately, does not form a systematic step reservoir group continuous dam break risk analysis method, and cannot quickly analyze the dam overflow or dam break risk of a downstream step reservoir; or a complex high-performance numerical calculation method is adopted to calculate the dam-break flood routing, so that the accuracy requirements on the basic data such as the terrain, the river channel form and the like are high, the calculation time is long, and the actual needs of the basin emergency rescue work cannot be met.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method for analyzing the risk of continuous dam break of a cascade reservoir group according to emergency rescue work needs of the cascade reservoir group in a drainage basin and the defects of the prior art.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme: a method for analyzing risks of continuous dam break of a cascade reservoir group comprises at least two or more reservoir dams, and comprises the following steps:
1) and selecting a continuous dam break risk analysis object. According to the invention, at least two or more step reservoir dams are sequentially selected from top to bottom in the same river as a continuous dam break risk analysis object.
2) And collecting and determining basic data. According to the calculation and analysis requirements of the invention, the step reservoir group continuous dam break risk analysis needs to collect step reservoir capacity-water level relation curves and data, dam body geometric characteristic parameters, warehousing flow, start-regulating reservoir water level, flood discharge capacity curves and data, river slope, roughness and geometric shape parameters between adjacent step reservoirs, determine break-opening scouring erosion parameters, break-opening expansion parameters, flood evolution calculation time step length and the like.
3) And calculating the breach flood. According to the breach water flow model, the breach erosion model and the breach geometric expansion model, the breach flood flow process and the peak flow are determined.
4) And (5) dam break flood evolution. According to the numerical difference method based on the HLL format, provided by the invention, the dam-break flood routing calculation is carried out by adopting a finite volume method of a central format, and the flow process and the corresponding time of the flood routing to the downstream cascade reservoir are determined.
5) And (5) analyzing the risk of the dam overflowing. According to the flood regulation analysis model integrated by the invention, whether overtopping continuous dam break is possible or not is calculated and analyzed.
In the above technical solution, preferably, the 3) breach water flow model calculated by the breach flood is estimated by using a wide top weir formula on the basis of water balance, that is, the model is estimated by using a wide top weir formula
In the above technical solution, preferably, 3) the breach erosion calculated by the breach flood adopts a hyperbolic model, that is
In the above technical solution, preferably, the 3) burst geometric expansion process of the burst flood calculation is calculated by using a simplified Bishop method.
Among the above-mentioned technical scheme, preferably, 4) in the dam break flood evolution calculation process, for improving computational efficiency, generalize river course actual measurement section to the trapezoidal form that falls, cross sectional area A and surface of water width B have the following relation: a ═ h (B)0+hm)，B＝B0+2hm, wherein B0The width of the bottom of the river channel, h the depth of water flow and m the slope ratio of two sides of the river channel.
In the above technical solution, preferably, 4) in the dam break flood routing calculation process, the upstream boundary condition is a flow process of upstream step dam break or an upstream incoming water flow process; the downstream boundary condition can be determined by adopting a Manning formula according to the water level flow relation of the downstream section. In the evolution process, the initial conditions of each section are generally selected from natural runoff. The specific boundary conditions are as follows:
(1) initial conditions: initial flow field phit＝0＝Φ0(x, y) phi is a function of water level (Z), flow rate (V), reservoir volume (W) in x, y directions, respectively, with respect to time (t), i.e.: t is t0，Z＝Z0，V＝V0，W＝W0；
(2) Water level boundary: z ═ Z (t);
(3) and (3) flow boundary: q ═ Q (t);
(4) water level flow relationship boundary: q ═ Q (z).
In the above (3) and (4), according to the flow velocity distribution on the boundary, i.e., Q ═ jj ═ j ^sVnhds, the normal flow rate at the boundary node is obtained. In addition, h adopts the node water depth at the time of n Δ t.
In the above technical solution, preferably, 5) the risk analysis of the dam is performed by a time infinitesimal-based method, and the practical equation for calculating the risk of the flood regulation dam is a simultaneous solution of a water balance equation and a storage and discharge equation of the reservoir, that is, a simultaneous solution of a water balance equation and a storage and discharge equation of the reservoir from time to time, that is, a time infinitesimal-based method
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that: the invention provides a simple, convenient and feasible step reservoir group continuous dam break risk analysis method, which can provide accurate, quick and quantitative technical support for safety management, emergency rescue and risk disposal decisions of a watershed step reservoir group.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a risk analysis of continuous dam break of a cascade reservoir group
FIG. 2 is a plan view of a cascade reservoir group
FIG. 3 is a schematic view of the location of a cascade reservoir group
FIG. 4 is a water level curve of each step of reservoir capacity
FIG. 5C library drainage Capacity Curve
FIG. 6A shows dam burst and evolution to reservoir B flow process and reservoir B water level change process
FIG. 7B dam burst and evolution to C reservoir traffic Process
FIG. 8C Pre-flood discharge Process (0:00 ~ 11:38)
FIG. 9C Bank dam-overflowing Risk analysis Process (11: 38-the next day 6:00)
Detailed Description
The technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. It is to be understood that the embodiments described below are only a portion of the invention, and not all embodiments. All other embodiments obtained without inventive work based on the embodiments of the present invention belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
1) Selecting continuous dam break risk analysis object
The planar arrangement and the position are schematically shown in fig. 2 and fig. 3 by taking A, B, C three-step reservoir groups which are sequentially planned from top to bottom on a river main stream as an embodiment. The C dam is a controllable step of a river reach where the three steps are located.
2) Basic data collection and determination
The distance between the A dam and the B dam is about 85.6km, the height difference is about 318.9m, the distance between the B dam and the C dam is about 89.3km, and the height difference is about 380.5 m. A. B, C the characteristic parameters of three-step engineering are shown in Table 1, and the water level curve of reservoir is shown in FIG. 4. The reservoir of the dam B does not have flood regulation capacity, and the flood discharge process is not considered. The C dam reservoir has flood control function according to design scheme, the flood discharge facilities comprise flood spillway, vertical shaft flood discharge hole and deep hole flood discharge hole, and the flow of full-gate flood discharge is about 8000m3The/s, leakage capacity is shown in FIG. 5.
TABLE 1 three-step reservoir engineering characteristic table
3) Dam break flood calculation in reservoir A
The dam break parameter values of the reservoir A are shown in the table 2. Assuming that the dam A starts to break at 0:00 and the break mouth scouring starting flow rate is 3.0m/s, 14:19 reaches the break flood peak 31914m3And/s, when the scouring flow rate of the dam break opening A is less than the starting value of 3.0m/s, the dam break is finished for about 53 hours, and the flow process is shown in the figure 6.
TABLE 2A dam break calculation parameters
4) Dam break flood routing in reservoir a
The roughness of the river channel is 0.025, the slope is 4 per mill, the time step length is 30s, the geometry of the river channel is inverted trapezoid, the bottom width is 30m, and the river channel is vertically enlarged according to the slope of 0.3. Dam break flood of 0:00A reservoir begins to evolve towards reservoir B approximately 85.6km downstream,3:19 dam break flood is evolved to the dam site of the B dam, the dam break peak flow rate is 15:25, the dam break peak flow rate enters the B reservoir, the dam break peak flow rate belongs to a canyon type reservoir, the leveling effect is not obvious, the peak attenuation is small, and the peak flow rate of the dam site of the B dam is 31624m3The dam break flood evolution process is shown in figure 6.
5) Flood calculation for continuous dam break in reservoir B
Stage 1:and (4) the dam break flood of the reservoir A enters the reservoir B, and the reservoir water level is in a high-rise process. And 3:19A, enabling the dam break flood to enter a reservoir B, enabling the reservoir water level to rise from the normal water storage level, rising to a dam crest elevation 2690m (a point shown in figure 6A) at a ratio of 8:33, enabling the reservoir water level to still rise due to the fact that the overtopping flow is smaller than the reservoir entry flow when the reservoir water level overtopping is overtopped, enabling the reservoir water level to rise to a position which is equal to the reservoir entry flow at a ratio of 20:31B, enabling the reservoir water level to rise to a maximum 2713.7m and exceed the dam crest elevation 23.7m, and enabling the water level to. Since reservoir B does not have flood regulation capability, this process does not take into account the flow rate of the dary reservoir output from the flood discharge facility.
And (2) stage:the full section of the dam B is overflowed, and the step is continuously broken. And (4) starting continuous collapse calculation of the dam 8:33B due to overtopping of the reservoir water level, and overlapping the reservoir flow from the dam break of the upstream reservoir A to the reservoir B to generate continuous collapse. Taking the warehousing flow rate after 8:33 of the dam B as the warehousing flow rate of the dam B for continuous collapse calculation, wherein the 19:39B maximum collapse peak flow rate is 41314m3/s。
6) Reservoir B continuous flood routing
And (3) stage:the cascade flood bursting progresses towards the downstream. The dam site of C dam with the flood bursting area of 11:38B reservoir and the dam bursting area of 21:20B reservoir are respectively and continuously distributed to 89.3km downstream, the flood peak flow rate is 40832m because of canyon type river channel and basically no loss is generated3The flow process of its breakdown and evolution to the C reservoir is shown in FIG. 7.
7) C-bank continuous dam break risk analysis
Because the reservoir capacity of the reservoir A is larger than that of the reservoir B and the reservoir C at the downstream, the overtopping risk analysis of the reservoir C with early warning working conditions is carried out, namely, the reservoir C is informed of full-gate flood discharge when the dam A breaks down (0:00), and the flood discharge flow is 8000m3And s. When the flood in the dam of 11:38B enters the reservoir C, the water level of the reservoir C is reduced from 2500m to 2492.96m, and the lower drainage quantity is 2.48 hundred million m3. The drainage process is shown in FIG. 8. And as the warehousing flow is smaller than the lower discharge flow, the water level of the C reservoir continues to drop, the warehousing flow of 15:02 is equal to the lower discharge flow, the water level drops to the lowest 2491.37m, then as the warehousing flow is larger than the lower discharge flow, the reservoir water level starts to rise, and as the water level rises to the dam crest elevation 2510m at the ratio of 23:30, the C reservoir overflows, as shown in FIG. 9.
According to the method, the dam break flood of the upstream cascade reservoir can be calculated under the watershed scale, and the dam break flood can be dealt with in advance for each downstream cascade reservoir through the cascade reservoir group continuous dam break risk analysis, so that technical support is provided for adopting scientific and effective emergency measures. For example, with the above embodiment, when the reservoir dam a breaks down, the steps downstream can be informed to take measures such as flood discharge, evacuation, reinforcement and the like in advance so as to deal with the reservoir dam breaking flood of the steps upstream. Although it can be seen from the example analysis: under the situation that the dam A breaks down and the dam B breaks continuously, the step C reservoir is controlled to still overtake through early flood discharge, but the overtake of the dam C reservoir is reinforced through engineering measures, so that the overtake of the dam C reservoir is prevented from breaking, and the safety of the whole basin is ensured.
It is obvious that the invention is not restricted to the details of the above-described embodiments. The above-described embodiments should be regarded as illustrative rather than restrictive. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims, and all changes that come within the meaning and range of equivalency of the claims are intended to be embraced therein. Any reference sign in a claim should not be construed as limiting the claim concerned.
In addition, the present specification should be considered as a whole, the above-mentioned embodiments are not the only independent technical solutions of the present invention, and the technical solutions in the embodiments can be properly combined and adjusted to form other embodiments which can be understood by those skilled in the art.
Claims (6)
1. A method for analyzing risks of continuous dam break of a cascade reservoir group is determined, wherein the cascade reservoir group comprises more than two reservoir dams, and the method for analyzing risks of continuous dam break of the cascade reservoir group comprises the following steps:
1) selecting a continuous dam break risk analysis object: at least more than two step reservoir dams are sequentially selected from top to bottom in the same river to be used as continuous dam break risk analysis objects;
2) basic data collection and determination: according to the calculation requirements, the step reservoir group continuous dam break risk analysis needs to collect step reservoir capacity water level relation curves and data, dam main characteristic parameters, warehousing flood flow, reservoir water level regulation, flood discharge capacity curves and data, river slope, roughness and geometric shape parameters between adjacent step reservoirs, and determine break mouth scouring erosion parameters, break mouth expansion parameters, flood evolution calculation time step length and the like;
3) calculating the breach flood: determining a burst flood flow process and peak flow according to the burst water flow discharge model, the burst erosion model and the burst geometric expansion model;
4) dam break flood evolution: performing dam break flood evolution calculation by adopting a finite volume method of a central format based on a numerical difference method of an HLL format, and determining a flow process and corresponding time of the flood from the flood to a downstream step reservoir;
5) and (4) dam overflowing risk analysis: and calculating and analyzing whether the possibility of overtopping continuous dam break exists or not according to the integrated flood regulation analysis model.
2. The analytical method for determining risk of dam break in cascade reservoir group according to claim 1, wherein the model of the water flow at the break port calculated by the break port flood is estimated based on the water balance by using the following formula
In the above formula, B is the width of the breach section; h is reservoir water level elevation; z is the elevation of the bed surface at the inlet of the break opening; c is a flow coefficient; q is the natural inflow of the reservoir; w is the reservoir capacity and V is an argument which is a function of the reservoir level height H.
3. The analytical method for determining risk of continuous dam break of step reservoir group according to claim 1, wherein the calculated erosion of the dam break by flood is hyperbolic model
4. The analysis method for determining the risk of continuous dam break of the cascade reservoir group according to claim 1, wherein in the dam break flood evolution calculation process, the actually measured section of the river channel is generalized into an inverted trapezoid, and the section area A and the water surface width B have the following relationship: a ═ h (B)0+hm)，B＝B0+2hm, wherein B0The width of the bottom of the river channel, h the depth of water flow and m the slope ratio of two sides of the river channel.
5. The analysis method for determining the risk of continuous dam break of the cascade reservoir group according to claim 1, wherein in the dam break flood evolution calculation process, an upstream boundary condition is a flow process of upstream cascade dam break or an upstream incoming water flow process; the downstream boundary condition is determined by a Manning formula according to the water level flow relation of the downstream section; in the evolution process, the natural runoff is selected according to the initial conditions of each section, and the specific boundary conditions are as follows:
(1) initial conditions: initial flow field phit＝0＝Φ0(x, y) phi is a function of water level (Z), flow rate (V), reservoir volume (W) in x, y directions, respectively, with respect to time (t), i.e.: t is t0，Z＝Z0，V＝V0，W＝W0；
(2) Water level boundary: z ═ Z (t);
(3) and (3) flow boundary: q ═ Q (t);
(4) water level flow relationship boundary: q ═ Q (Z)
In the above (3) and (4)In terms of the distribution of flow velocities over the boundary, i.e. Q ═ jek-sVnhds, the normal flow rate at the boundary node is obtained.
6. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the risk analysis of dam break is based on time infinitesimal, and the practical equation of risk calculation of flood regulation dam is a method of simultaneously solving a water balance equation and a storage and discharge equation of reservoir in time intervals, that is, a method of calculating the risk of dam break
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN113886912A (en) * | 2021-09-22 | 2022-01-04 | 中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司 | Multi-stage dam break intelligent optimization emergency scheduling method |
| CN115935856A (en) * | 2022-12-05 | 2023-04-07 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Dam break flood simulation method considering building damage |
| CN117494478A (en) * | 2023-12-29 | 2024-02-02 | 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 | Calculation method for simulating over-roof dam break flow and break evolution process of core dam |
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| CN117494478B (en) * | 2023-12-29 | 2024-03-08 | 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 | Calculation method for simulating over-roof dam break flow and break evolution process of core dam |
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