CN112685904A - Method and system for determining whole life cycle reliability of flexible direct current transmission system - Google Patents
Method and system for determining whole life cycle reliability of flexible direct current transmission system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a system for determining the whole life cycle reliability of a flexible direct current transmission system, wherein the method comprises the following steps: in the whole life cycle of the flexible direct current transmission system: analyzing the flexible direct-current transmission system by using an impact and hazard analysis FMECA and a hazard and operability analysis HAZOP respectively, and determining a fault mode and a potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct-current transmission system; and determining the reliability and spare parts of the flexible direct current transmission system by analyzing the fault mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system and the current maintenance strategy of the flexible direct current transmission system by RAMS (random access ms). According to the invention, when the reliability is calculated in the whole life cycle of the flexible direct current transmission system, the current maintenance strategy is considered, and the calculation result of the reliability is further improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of electric power, in particular to a method and a system for determining the whole life cycle reliability of a flexible direct current transmission system.
Background
With the construction of the global energy internet, the existing power transmission and transformation technologies and equipment cannot meet the requirements of intercontinental power transmission, and flexible direct-current power transmission has the characteristics of flexible and quick power regulation, no need of reactive compensation, long power transmission distance and the like, and can be applied to renewable energy grid connection, direct-current network construction, asynchronous power grid interconnection, large-scale urban power supply, grid power quality improvement, island and offshore platform power supply and realization of a multi-terminal direct-current power transmission network.
However, with the continuous improvement of the voltage grade and the power transmission capacity of a power transmission system, the reliability level of the flexible direct-current power transmission project and the influence of the flexible direct-current power transmission project on a power grid are increasingly prominent. In order to ensure that a flexible direct current power transmission system has high operability and usability throughout its life cycle, it is desirable to increase the accuracy of reliability.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the above disadvantages in the prior art, the present invention provides a method for determining the reliability of the full life cycle of a flexible dc power transmission system, including:
in the whole life cycle of the flexible direct current transmission system:
analyzing the flexible direct-current transmission system by using an impact and hazard analysis FMECA and a hazard and operability analysis HAZOP respectively, and determining a fault mode and a potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct-current transmission system;
determining the reliability and spare parts of the flexible direct current transmission system by analyzing the fault mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system and the current maintenance strategy of the flexible direct current transmission system by RAMS (random access ms);
the current maintenance strategy is based on the result of FMECA analysis on the influence and the hazard of the flexible direct current transmission system in the previous time, and the reliability of the flexible direct current transmission system and the reliability-centered RCM generation of spare parts are performed by the current maintenance strategy.
Preferably, the determining the reliability and spare parts of the flexible direct current power transmission system by using the failure mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current power transmission system and the current maintenance strategy of the flexible direct current power transmission system through the RAMS analysis for reliability, availability, maintainability and safety includes:
evaluating reliability data of each piece of equipment by using the fault mode and the potential risk of each piece of key equipment in the flexible direct current transmission system;
calculating the availability index of the flexible direct current power transmission system based on a pre-constructed fault tree model of the flexible direct current power transmission system and the reliability data;
determining the reliability of the flexible direct current transmission system based on the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system and the annual overhaul time obtained from the current maintenance strategy;
respectively adjusting the reliability data of each device within a set margin, comparing the change of the availability index in the flexible direct current transmission system, and selecting the device which has influence on the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system and exceeds a set threshold;
increasing or decreasing spare parts based on the equipment with the influence on the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system exceeding a set threshold;
wherein the reliability data comprises: failure rate and average maintenance time; the availability index includes: forced outage time; the reliability is characterized by the availability ratio of the flexible direct current transmission system.
Further, the availability ratio of the flexible direct current transmission system is calculated according to the following formula:
in the formula: EA is the availability ratio of the flexible direct current transmission system; EFOH is the forced outage time; ESOH is annual overhaul time; PH is reference time.
Preferably, the analyzing the flexible direct current transmission system by using the FMECA for impact and hazard analysis and the HAZOP for hazard and operability analysis respectively to determine the failure mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system includes:
determining key equipment to be subjected to reliability analysis based on a topological structure of the flexible direct current transmission system;
analyzing each key device by using an impact and hazard analysis FMECA (failure mode analysis) to determine the failure mode of each key device;
and analyzing each key device by using the HAZOP to determine the potential risk of each key device.
Further, the analyzing each of the critical devices by using the HAZOP for risk and operability analysis to determine the potential risk of each of the critical devices includes:
determining whether each critical failure mode is related to an operation safety range, an operation environment and a design deviation by using a hazard and operability analysis HAZOP according to the reason causing the critical equipment failure mode;
determining the potential risk of each of the critical devices based on the result of whether the failure mode of each of the critical devices is related to the operational safety range, the operational environment and the design deviation.
Preferably, after analyzing each of the critical devices by using the impact and hazard analysis FMECA and determining the failure mode of each of the critical devices, the method further includes:
determining key equipment with the operation influence on the flexible direct current transmission system exceeding a set threshold according to the operation influence on the flexible direct current transmission system caused by the fault mode of each key equipment;
and performing reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) based on the key equipment with the operation influence exceeding the set threshold value generated by the flexible direct current transmission system.
Further, the determining, according to the operational influence of the fault mode of each of the key devices on the flexible direct current transmission system, the key device whose operational influence on the flexible direct current transmission system exceeds a set threshold includes:
acquiring the severity, incidence and undetectable property of each key fault mode;
evaluating the importance and risk of each critical equipment fault mode by adopting a risk priority number method based on the severity, incidence and undetectable property of each critical fault mode;
and determining the key equipment with the operation influence on the flexible direct current transmission system exceeding a set threshold value based on the importance and the risk of each key equipment fault mode.
Based on the same inventive concept, the invention provides a system for determining the whole life cycle reliability of a flexible direct current transmission system, which comprises:
the fault and risk determining module is used for analyzing the flexible direct current transmission system by utilizing an impact and hazard analysis FMECA and a danger and operability analysis HAZOP respectively in the whole life cycle of the flexible direct current transmission system, and determining the fault mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system;
the system comprises an RAMS analysis module, a fault mode analysis module and a maintenance strategy analysis module, wherein the RAMS analysis module is used for RAMS analysis on the fault mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system and on the current maintenance strategy of the flexible direct current transmission system by adopting reliability, availability, maintainability and safety, and determining the reliability and spare parts of the flexible direct current transmission system;
the current maintenance strategy is based on the result of FMECA analysis on the influence and the hazard of the flexible direct current transmission system in the previous time, and the reliability of the flexible direct current transmission system and the reliability-centered RCM generation of spare parts are performed by the current maintenance strategy.
Further, the RAMS analysis module includes:
the evaluation unit is used for evaluating the reliability data of each piece of key equipment in the flexible direct current transmission system by using the fault mode and the potential risk of the equipment;
the calculation unit is used for calculating the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system based on a fault tree model of the flexible direct current transmission system which is constructed in advance and the reliability data;
the determining unit is used for determining the reliability of the flexible direct current transmission system based on the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system and the annual overhaul time obtained from the current maintenance strategy;
the comparison unit is used for respectively adjusting the reliability data of each device within a set margin, comparing the change of the availability index in the flexible direct current transmission system and selecting the device which has the influence on the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system and exceeds a set threshold value;
a spare part adjusting unit, configured to increase or decrease spare parts based on the device whose influence on the availability index of the flexible direct current power transmission system exceeds a set threshold;
wherein the reliability data comprises: failure rate and average maintenance time; the availability index includes: forced outage time; the reliability is characterized by the availability ratio of the flexible direct current transmission system.
Further, the failure and risk determination module includes:
the device comprises a key device determining unit, a reliability analysis unit and a control unit, wherein the key device determining unit is used for determining a key device to be subjected to reliability analysis based on a topological structure of the flexible direct current transmission system;
the FMECA analysis unit is used for analyzing each key device by utilizing the influence and hazard analysis FMECA and determining the fault mode of each key device;
and the HAZOP analysis unit is used for analyzing each key device by using the HAZOP for danger and operability analysis and determining the potential risk of each key device.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
according to the technical scheme provided by the invention, in the whole life cycle of the flexible direct current transmission system: analyzing the flexible direct-current transmission system by using an impact and hazard analysis FMECA and a hazard and operability analysis HAZOP respectively, and determining a fault mode and a potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct-current transmission system; determining the reliability and spare parts of the flexible direct current transmission system by analyzing the fault mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system and the current maintenance strategy of the flexible direct current transmission system by RAMS (random access ms); the current maintenance strategy is based on the result of FMECA analysis on the influence and the hazard of the flexible direct current transmission system in the previous time, and the reliability of the flexible direct current transmission system and the reliability-centered RCM generation of spare parts are performed by the current maintenance strategy. When the reliability is calculated in the whole life cycle of the flexible direct current transmission system, the method not only considers the fault mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system, but also considers the current maintenance strategy, and further improves the calculation result of the reliability.
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Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for determining the reliability of the full life cycle of a flexible direct current transmission system according to the present invention;
fig. 2 is a block diagram of an inventive concept for determining the full life cycle reliability of a flexible dc power transmission system in an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of an FMECA analysis process of the flexible direct current transmission system according to the embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 4 is a graphical illustration of severity, incidence and non-detectability versus potential failure in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a flow chart of the RAMS analysis in the embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
For a better understanding of the present invention, reference is made to the following description taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and examples.
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
In order to adapt to the needs of intercontinental power transmission, the reliability of a flexible direct current transmission system in the whole life cycle needs to be known in real time, and the flexible direct current transmission system is used for guiding the construction of the global energy Internet. Therefore, as shown in fig. 1, the present invention provides a method for determining the full-life cycle reliability of a flexible direct current transmission system, including:
in the whole life cycle of the flexible direct current transmission system:
s1, analyzing the flexible direct current transmission system by using an impact and hazard analysis (FMECA) and a danger and operability analysis (HAZOP) respectively, and determining a fault mode and a potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system;
s2, determining the reliability and spare parts of the flexible direct current transmission system by analyzing the fault mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system and the current maintenance strategy of the flexible direct current transmission system by RAMS (random access ms);
the current maintenance strategy is based on the result of FMECA analysis on the influence and the hazard of the flexible direct current transmission system in the previous time, and the reliability of the flexible direct current transmission system and the reliability-centered RCM generation of spare parts are performed by the current maintenance strategy.
In this embodiment, the inventive concept of determining the reliability of the full life cycle of the flexible dc power transmission system is shown in fig. 2, and includes: failure mode, impact and hazard analysis (FMECA), hazard and operability (HAZOP), reliability, availability, maintainability and safety (RAMS), and reliability-centric maintenance (RCM). When the reliability is calculated, the fault mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system are considered, meanwhile, the current maintenance strategy is also considered, and further the calculation result of the reliability is improved.
In this embodiment, S1 may be implemented to analyze the flexible direct current transmission system by using the FMECA for impact and hazard analysis and the HAZOP for hazard and operability analysis, respectively, to determine the failure mode and the potential risk of each critical device in the flexible direct current transmission system:
s101, determining key equipment to be subjected to reliability analysis based on a topological structure of the flexible direct current power transmission system;
s102, analyzing each key device by using an impact and hazard analysis (FMECA) to determine a fault mode of each key device;
s103, analyzing each key device by using the HAZOP to determine the potential risk of each key device.
Further, after analyzing each of the critical devices by using the impact and hazard analysis FMECA and determining the failure mode of each of the critical devices, the method further includes:
determining key equipment with the operation influence on the flexible direct current transmission system exceeding a set threshold according to the operation influence on the flexible direct current transmission system caused by the fault mode of each key equipment;
and performing reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) based on the key equipment with the operation influence exceeding the set threshold value generated by the flexible direct current transmission system.
Specifically, the determining, according to the operation influence of the fault mode of each of the key devices on the flexible direct current transmission system, the key device whose operation influence on the flexible direct current transmission system exceeds a set threshold includes:
acquiring the severity, incidence and undetectable property of each key fault mode;
evaluating the importance and risk of each critical equipment fault mode by adopting a risk priority number method based on the severity, incidence and undetectable property of each critical fault mode;
and determining the key equipment with the operation influence on the flexible direct current transmission system exceeding a set threshold value based on the importance and the risk of each key equipment fault mode.
In one embodiment, S102 is implemented as: FMECA analysis is performed on the flexible direct current transmission system, potential failure modes in the system are identified, and classification is performed according to the severity of the potential failure modes.
In this embodiment, the FMECA (Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis, Failure Mode and impact Analysis and hazard Analysis) Analysis of the flexible dc power transmission system is performed in 7 steps, as shown in fig. 3, and includes:
1) defining a flexible direct current transmission system to be analyzed, and collecting information about system concept and design;
2) the identification subsystem divides the system into subsystems such as a transformer, a flexible direct current valve hall, a reactor chamber, a direct current field, a direct current circuit, a control and protection system, a valve cooling system and an auxiliary system according to the structure of the flexible direct current power transmission system;
3) identifying fault modes of key equipment in each subsystem, such as bypass of a converter valve sub-module, leakage of a cooling liquid pipe and the like;
4) identifying causes of key equipment failure modes in each subsystem, such as design defects, redundancy deficiencies, equipment defects and the like;
5) the method comprises the steps of identifying the influence of a fault mode of key equipment in each subsystem on subsequent functions and the whole system, and judging whether the fault mode can cause system outage or not for evaluating the severity of the fault mode;
6) assessing the importance and risk of critical equipment failure modes using a Risk Priority Number (RPN) method, the RPN criticality matrix being determined by the product of severity (S), incidence (O) and non-detectability (D);
RPN＝S×O×D (1)
the severity (S), incidence (O), and non-detectability (D) values were determined according to the criteria of Table 1, ranging from 1 to 7. The relationship of severity (S), incidence (O) and non-detectability (D) to potential failure is shown in fig. 4.
7) And identifying the equipment with larger influence on the system operation according to the comparison and sequencing of the RPN key matrix values of the equipment in each subsystem.
Wherein the step 5) and the step 6) can mutually authenticate.
TABLE 1 numerical determination criteria for RPN Critical matrix
In one embodiment, S103 is implemented as: performing HAZOP (Hazard, Operability, danger and Operability) analysis on the flexible direct current transmission system, and identifying potential risks in the system, including:
1) the flexible direct current transmission system is divided into subsystems such as a transformer, a flexible direct current valve hall, a reactor chamber, a direct current field, a direct current circuit, a control and protection system, a valve cooling system and an auxiliary system;
2) in the design process of the subsystems, design deviations of key equipment such as a transformer, a flexible direct valve, a control and protection system and the like can have adverse effects on each subsystem;
3) evaluating whether the failure mode of key equipment in each subsystem is related to operation safety and environmental protection or not, and identifying the potential risk of the flexible direct-current power transmission system;
4) and aiming at the operation safety and environmental protection requirements of the flexible direct current transmission system, a measure for preventing risks is provided. Record the specific actions that discuss and agree on handling the identified risk.
In this embodiment, the following steps may be utilized to implement S2, where the failure mode and the potential risk of each critical device in the flexible direct current power transmission system, and the current maintenance strategy of the flexible direct current power transmission system are analyzed by RAMS to determine the reliability and the spare parts of the flexible direct current power transmission system, and the method includes:
s201, evaluating reliability data of each piece of key equipment in the flexible direct current transmission system by using the fault mode and the potential risk of the equipment;
s202, calculating an availability index of the flexible direct current power transmission system based on a pre-constructed fault tree model of the flexible direct current power transmission system and the reliability data;
s203, determining the reliability of the flexible direct current transmission system based on the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system and the annual overhaul time obtained from the current maintenance strategy;
s204, reliability data of each device is respectively adjusted within a set margin, changes of availability indexes in the flexible direct current transmission system are compared, and devices which have influences on the availability indexes of the flexible direct current transmission system exceeding a set threshold value are selected;
s205, increasing or decreasing spare parts based on the equipment with the influence on the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system exceeding a set threshold;
wherein the reliability data comprises: failure rate and average maintenance time; the availability index includes: forced outage time; the reliability is characterized by the availability ratio of the flexible direct current transmission system.
The RAMS study depends to a large extent on the system design, equipment inventory, FMECA study results, HazOp study results. The FMECA study and RAMS study are the inputs to the RCM study and help determine the optimal maintenance strategy.
In a specific embodiment, the RAMS analysis is performed on the flexible dc power transmission system according to the system design (including the equipment list) and the results of the FMECA and HAZOP analysis, as shown in fig. 5, including:
1) dividing the flexible direct current system into a plurality of subsystems according to a system design single line diagram, and listing a list of equipment considered in calculation;
2) acquiring a failure mode and a potential risk of the equipment based on FMECA and HAZOP research, and evaluating reliability data of the equipment, such as a failure rate and average maintenance time, wherein the average maintenance time is calculated according to the time of spare parts and maintenance personnel arriving at the site and the time of maintenance personnel for maintaining, and the time of spare parts and maintenance personnel arriving at the site is definitely calculated and assumed according to the actual situation of the flexible direct current transmission project;
3) establishing a fault tree model of the flexible direct current transmission system by adopting a fault tree analysis method;
4) calculating key availability indexes of the system, such as forced outage time EFOH and the like, in isograph software based on a fault tree model of the flexible direct current power transmission system, the fault rate of equipment and average maintenance time; judging whether the system design meets the performance requirement of the flexible direct current engineering on the reliability;
5) the fault rate and the maintenance time of each device are adjusted within a certain margin (+ -25%), the change of the EFOH forced outage time of the flexible direct-current transmission system is contrastively analyzed, and key devices which have great influence on the reliability of the flexible direct-current transmission system are identified;
6) and providing guidance for maintenance strategies and equipment lists of the system.
RAMS in this embodiment refers to reliability, effectiveness, maintainability and safety. Wherein:
R-Reliability, refers to the ability of a product to perform a specified function under specified conditions and for a specified time. The probability measure of reliability is also referred to as reliability.
A-Availability, refers to the probability that a product will function satisfactorily under certain conditions.
M-Maintainability Maintainability refers to the ability of a product to maintain or return to a prescribed state when maintained under prescribed conditions and for a prescribed period of time according to prescribed procedures and methods. The probability measure of serviceability is also referred to as serviceability.
S-Safety, which means that the product can reliably complete its specified functions, and the personal Safety of the operating and maintenance personnel is ensured.
In a specific embodiment, the RCM analysis of the flexible dc power transmission system is performed according to the results of FMECA and RAMS analysis, and includes:
1) and identifying a system fault mode based on the results of FMECA analysis and RAMS analysis, determining a fault management and maintenance strategy, and establishing a dynamic maintenance plan.
And obtaining the annual overhaul time ESOH of the flexible direct current transmission system according to the maintenance plan. According to the annual overhaul hours ESOH and the forced outage time EFOH, calculating the availability EA of the flexible direct current transmission system according to the following formula:
EOH＝EFOH+ESOH
EA＝100×(1-(EOH/PH))
where EOH is the equivalent down time, PH is the reference time (typically one year, 8760 hours), and EA is the system availability.
2) And in the whole life cycle of the flexible direct current transmission system, updating the RAMS and RCM analysis results (system availability EA) iteratively according to the changes of spare parts and maintenance strategies.
The embodiment provides a complete evaluation system and implementation steps for the whole life cycle reliability of the flexible direct-current transmission system, and can provide guidance for engineering design, construction and operation maintenance.
It should be noted that, the "key devices" described in the above embodiments refer to devices that are divided according to a topological structure in the flexible dc power transmission system and are necessary to implement functions of the subsystems in each subsystem, for example, subsystems such as a transformer, a flexible valve hall, a reactor chamber, a dc field, a dc line, a control and protection system, a valve cooling system, and an auxiliary system are included, and all the necessary devices that maintain the engine in an appropriate temperature range under all operating conditions in the valve cooling system are the key devices.
It should be noted that, although the foregoing embodiments describe each step in a specific sequence, those skilled in the art will understand that, in order to achieve the effect of the present invention, different steps do not necessarily need to be executed in such a sequence, and they may be executed simultaneously (in parallel) or in other sequences, and these changes are all within the protection scope of the present invention.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the flow of the method according to the above-described embodiment may be implemented by a computer program, which may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium and used to implement the steps of the above-described embodiments of the method when the computer program is executed by a processor. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code, which may be in the form of source code, object code, an executable file or some intermediate form, etc. The computer-readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying said computer program code, media, usb disk, removable hard disk, magnetic diskette, optical disk, computer memory, read-only memory, random access memory, electrical carrier wave signals, telecommunication signals, software distribution media, etc. It should be noted that the computer readable medium may contain content that is subject to appropriate increase or decrease as required by legislation and patent practice in jurisdictions, for example, in some jurisdictions, computer readable media does not include electrical carrier signals and telecommunications signals as is required by legislation and patent practice.
Based on the same inventive concept, the invention also provides a system for determining the whole life cycle reliability of the flexible direct current transmission system, which comprises:
the fault and risk determining module is used for analyzing the flexible direct current transmission system by utilizing an impact and hazard analysis FMECA and a danger and operability analysis HAZOP respectively in the whole life cycle of the flexible direct current transmission system, and determining the fault mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system;
the system comprises an RAMS analysis module, a fault mode analysis module and a maintenance strategy analysis module, wherein the RAMS analysis module is used for RAMS analysis on the fault mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system and on the current maintenance strategy of the flexible direct current transmission system by adopting reliability, availability, maintainability and safety, and determining the reliability and spare parts of the flexible direct current transmission system;
the current maintenance strategy is based on the result of FMECA analysis on the influence and the hazard of the flexible direct current transmission system in the previous time, and the reliability of the flexible direct current transmission system and the reliability-centered RCM generation of spare parts are performed by the current maintenance strategy.
In an embodiment, the RAMS analysis module includes:
the evaluation unit is used for evaluating the reliability data of each piece of key equipment in the flexible direct current transmission system by using the fault mode and the potential risk of the equipment;
the calculation unit is used for calculating the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system based on a fault tree model of the flexible direct current transmission system which is constructed in advance and the reliability data;
the determining unit is used for determining the reliability of the flexible direct current transmission system based on the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system and the annual overhaul time obtained from the current maintenance strategy;
the comparison unit is used for respectively adjusting the reliability data of each device within a set margin, comparing the change of the availability index in the flexible direct current transmission system and selecting the device which has the influence on the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system and exceeds a set threshold value;
a spare part adjusting unit, configured to increase or decrease spare parts based on the device whose influence on the availability index of the flexible direct current power transmission system exceeds a set threshold;
wherein the reliability data comprises: failure rate and average maintenance time; the availability index includes: forced outage time; the reliability is characterized by the availability ratio of the flexible direct current transmission system.
In an embodiment, the fault and risk determination module includes:
the device comprises a key device determining unit, a reliability analysis unit and a control unit, wherein the key device determining unit is used for determining a key device to be subjected to reliability analysis based on a topological structure of the flexible direct current transmission system;
the FMECA analysis unit is used for analyzing each key device by utilizing the influence and hazard analysis FMECA and determining the fault mode of each key device;
and the HAZOP analysis unit is used for analyzing each key device by using the HAZOP for danger and operability analysis and determining the potential risk of each key device.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention is described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: modifications and equivalents may be made to the embodiments of the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which is to be covered by the claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method for determining the whole life cycle reliability of a flexible direct current transmission system is characterized by comprising the following steps:
in the whole life cycle of the flexible direct current transmission system:
analyzing the flexible direct-current transmission system by using an impact and hazard analysis FMECA and a hazard and operability analysis HAZOP respectively, and determining a fault mode and a potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct-current transmission system;
determining the reliability and spare parts of the flexible direct current transmission system by analyzing the fault mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system and the current maintenance strategy of the flexible direct current transmission system by RAMS (random access ms);
the current maintenance strategy is based on the result of FMECA analysis on the influence and the hazard of the flexible direct current transmission system in the previous time, and the reliability of the flexible direct current transmission system and the reliability-centered RCM generation of spare parts are performed by the current maintenance strategy.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the determining reliability and spare parts of the flexible direct current power transmission system using reliability, availability, maintainability and safety RAMS analysis of the failure mode and potential risk of critical equipment in the flexible direct current power transmission system and the current maintenance strategy of the flexible direct current power transmission system comprises:
evaluating reliability data of each piece of equipment by using the fault mode and the potential risk of each piece of key equipment in the flexible direct current transmission system;
calculating the availability index of the flexible direct current power transmission system based on a pre-constructed fault tree model of the flexible direct current power transmission system and the reliability data;
determining the reliability of the flexible direct current transmission system based on the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system and the annual overhaul time obtained from the current maintenance strategy;
respectively adjusting the reliability data of each device within a set margin, comparing the change of the availability index in the flexible direct current transmission system, and selecting the device which has influence on the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system and exceeds a set threshold;
increasing or decreasing spare parts based on the equipment with the influence on the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system exceeding a set threshold;
wherein the reliability data comprises: failure rate and average maintenance time; the availability index includes: forced outage time; the reliability is characterized by the availability ratio of the flexible direct current transmission system.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the availability ratio of the flexible direct current transmission system is calculated according to the following formula:
in the formula: EA is the availability ratio of the flexible direct current transmission system; EFOH is the forced outage time; ESOH is annual overhaul time; PH is reference time.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the flexible direct current transmission system is analyzed by using an impact and hazard analysis (FMECA) and a hazard and operability analysis (HAZOP) respectively to determine the failure mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system, and the method comprises the following steps:
determining key equipment to be subjected to reliability analysis based on a topological structure of the flexible direct current transmission system;
analyzing each key device by using an impact and hazard analysis FMECA (failure mode analysis) to determine the failure mode of each key device;
and analyzing each key device by using the HAZOP to determine the potential risk of each key device.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein analyzing each of the critical devices using the HAZOP for risk and operability analysis to determine the potential risk of each of the critical devices comprises:
determining whether each critical failure mode is related to an operation safety range, an operation environment and a design deviation by using a hazard and operability analysis HAZOP according to the reason causing the critical equipment failure mode;
determining the potential risk of each of the critical devices based on the result of whether the failure mode of each of the critical devices is related to the operational safety range, the operational environment and the design deviation.
6. The method of claim 4, wherein the analyzing each of the critical devices using impact and hazard analysis, FMECA, to determine the failure mode of each of the critical devices further comprises:
determining key equipment with the operation influence on the flexible direct current transmission system exceeding a set threshold according to the operation influence on the flexible direct current transmission system caused by the fault mode of each key equipment;
and performing reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) based on the key equipment with the operation influence exceeding the set threshold value generated by the flexible direct current transmission system.
7. The method according to claim 6, wherein determining the critical equipment having an operational impact on the HVDC system exceeding a set threshold value according to the operational impact on the HVDC system caused by the failure mode of each of the critical equipment comprises:
acquiring the severity, incidence and undetectable property of each key fault mode;
evaluating the importance and risk of each critical equipment fault mode by adopting a risk priority number method based on the severity, incidence and undetectable property of each critical fault mode;
and determining the key equipment with the operation influence on the flexible direct current transmission system exceeding a set threshold value based on the importance and the risk of each key equipment fault mode.
8. A system for determining the life cycle reliability of a flexible dc power transmission system, comprising:
the fault and risk determining module is used for analyzing the flexible direct current transmission system by utilizing an impact and hazard analysis FMECA and a danger and operability analysis HAZOP respectively in the whole life cycle of the flexible direct current transmission system, and determining the fault mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system;
the system comprises an RAMS analysis module, a fault mode analysis module and a maintenance strategy analysis module, wherein the RAMS analysis module is used for RAMS analysis on the fault mode and the potential risk of each key device in the flexible direct current transmission system and on the current maintenance strategy of the flexible direct current transmission system by adopting reliability, availability, maintainability and safety, and determining the reliability and spare parts of the flexible direct current transmission system;
the current maintenance strategy is based on the result of FMECA analysis on the influence and the hazard of the flexible direct current transmission system in the previous time, and the reliability of the flexible direct current transmission system and the reliability-centered RCM generation of spare parts are performed by the current maintenance strategy.
9. The system of claim 8, wherein the RAMS analysis module comprises:
the evaluation unit is used for evaluating the reliability data of each piece of key equipment in the flexible direct current transmission system by using the fault mode and the potential risk of the equipment;
the calculation unit is used for calculating the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system based on a fault tree model of the flexible direct current transmission system which is constructed in advance and the reliability data;
the determining unit is used for determining the reliability of the flexible direct current transmission system based on the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system and the annual overhaul time obtained from the current maintenance strategy;
the comparison unit is used for respectively adjusting the reliability data of each device within a set margin, comparing the change of the availability index in the flexible direct current transmission system and selecting the device which has the influence on the availability index of the flexible direct current transmission system and exceeds a set threshold value;
a spare part adjusting unit, configured to increase or decrease spare parts based on the device whose influence on the availability index of the flexible direct current power transmission system exceeds a set threshold;
wherein the reliability data comprises: failure rate and average maintenance time; the availability index includes: forced outage time; the reliability is characterized by the availability ratio of the flexible direct current transmission system.
10. The system of claim 9, wherein the fault and risk determination module comprises:
the device comprises a key device determining unit, a reliability analysis unit and a control unit, wherein the key device determining unit is used for determining a key device to be subjected to reliability analysis based on a topological structure of the flexible direct current transmission system;
the FMECA analysis unit is used for analyzing each key device by utilizing the influence and hazard analysis FMECA and determining the fault mode of each key device;
and the HAZOP analysis unit is used for analyzing each key device by using the HAZOP for danger and operability analysis and determining the potential risk of each key device.
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