CN112304813A - 一种大气颗粒物健康风险来向源解析方法 - Google Patents
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Abstract
一种大气颗粒物健康风险来向源解析方法,所述方法包括步骤:采集大气颗粒物,以得到颗粒物样品;分析测定颗粒物样品中的化学组分;采用因子分析模型识别颗粒物样品的源类并计算对应的源类贡献;识别颗粒物样品中污染源来向并计算对应的污染源来向贡献;采用风险评估模型评估预设污染源的健康风险。本申请提供的一种大气颗粒物健康风险来向源解析方法,可以定量分析预设来向上大气颗粒物对人体健康的风险影响,从而更好地判断特定来向颗粒物的健康风险,有针对性地治理,进而优化源控制策略。
Description
技术领域
本发明属于环境科学技术领域,具体涉及一种大气颗粒物健康风险来向源解析方法。
背景技术
已有的大气颗粒物来向源解析方法是计算各源类不同来向上对大气颗粒物质量浓度的贡献,但是缺少相应的大气颗粒物健康风险来源解析方法,从而无法定量分析不同来向上大气颗粒物对人体健康的风险影响。
发明内容
为解决上述问题,本发明提供了一种大气颗粒物健康风险来向源解析方法,所述方法包括步骤:
采集大气颗粒物,以得到颗粒物样品;
分析测定颗粒物样品中的化学组分;
采用因子分析模型识别颗粒物样品的源类并计算对应的源类贡献;
识别颗粒物样品中污染源来向并计算对应的污染源来向贡献;
采用风险评估模型评估预设污染源的健康风险。
优选地,所述采集大气颗粒物包括:采用大气颗粒物采样器采集大气颗粒物,以得到颗粒物样品。
优选地,所述分析测定颗粒物样品中的化学组分包括步骤:
采用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪、电感耦合原子发射光谱仪或X-射线荧光光谱仪分析测定颗粒物样品中的元素组分及有毒有害重金属组分;
采用离子色谱仪分析测定颗粒物样品中的离子组分;
采用碳组分分析仪分析测定颗粒物样品中的有机碳和元素碳;
采用气相色谱-质谱联用仪分析测定颗粒物样品中的多环芳烃。
优选地,所述采用因子分析模型识别颗粒物样品的源类并计算对应的源类贡献包括:采用PMF模型识别颗粒物样品的源类并计算对应的源类贡献。
优选地,所述颗粒物样品的源类贡献计算公式为:
其中,xij是第i个颗粒物样品中第j种组分的质量浓度,gik是第k个源类对第i个颗粒物样品的贡献,fkj是第k个源类源谱中第j种组分的含量,eij为残差因子矩阵。
优选地,所述识别颗粒物样品中污染源来向并计算对应的污染源来向贡献包括步骤:
采用HYSPLIT模型计算颗粒物样品的流动后轨迹,并对后轨迹聚类分析,以识别出污染源可能来向;
获取颗粒物样品的源类贡献时间序列;
将所述时间序列与所述可能来向进行一一对应耦合,以建立PMF-后轨迹耦合模型;
采用所述PMF-后轨迹耦合模型计算污染源来向贡献及对应的分担率。
优选地,所述污染源来向贡献的计算公式为:
优选地,所述污染源来向的分担率计算公式为:
优选地,所述采用风险评估模型评估预设污染源的健康风险包括:
采用风险评估模型计算预设污染源通过吸入途径引起的癌症风险和非癌症风险;
获取污染源来向及对应的来向贡献;
计算预设污染源在预设方向上的风险百分比。
本申请提供的一种大气颗粒物健康风险来向源解析方法,可以定量分析预设来向上大气颗粒物对人体健康的风险影响,从而更好地判断特定来向颗粒物的健康风险,有针对性地治理,进而优化源控制策略。
附图说明
为了更清楚地说明本发明实施例或现有技术中的技术方案,下面将对实施例或现有技术描述中所需要使用的附图作简单地介绍,显而易见地,下面描述中的附图仅仅是本发明的一些实施例,对于本领域普通技术人员来讲,在不付出创造性劳动性的前提下,还可以根据这些附图获得其他的附图。
图1是本发明提供的一种大气颗粒物健康风险来向源解析方法的流程示意图。
具体实施方式
为使本发明的目的、技术方案和优点更加清楚明了,下面结合具体实施方式并参照附图,对本发明进一步详细说明。应该理解,这些描述只是示例性的,而并非要限制本发明的范围。此外,在以下说明中,省略了对公知结构和技术的描述,以避免不必要地混淆本发明的概念。
如图1,在本申请实施例中,本申请提供了一种大气颗粒物健康风险来向源解析方法,所述方法包括步骤:
S1:采集大气颗粒物,以得到颗粒物样品;
S2:分析测定颗粒物样品中的化学组分;
S3:采用因子分析模型识别颗粒物样品的源类并计算对应的源类贡献;
S4:识别颗粒物样品中污染源来向并计算对应的污染源来向贡献;
S5:采用风险评估模型评估预设污染源的健康风险。
在本申请实施例中,首先采集大气颗粒物,可以得到多种颗粒物样品;然后分析测定颗粒物样品中的化学组分;接着采用因子分析模型识别颗粒物样品的源类,并计算对应的源类贡献,也即判断颗粒物样品的来源,以及每种来源的颗粒物样品在所有颗粒物样品中所占的比例;接着分析颗粒物样品的污染源来向,并计算对应的污染源来向贡献,也即判断颗粒物样品中的污染源来向,并且计算对应的污染源来向贡献;最后采用风险评估模型评估预设污染源的健康风险,从而得到大气颗粒物健康风险来向源的解析结果。
在本申请实施例中,步骤S1中的采集大气颗粒物包括:采用大气颗粒物采样器采集大气颗粒物,以得到颗粒物样品。
在本申请实施例中,步骤S2中的分析测定颗粒物样品中的化学组分包括步骤:
采用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪、电感耦合原子发射光谱仪或X-射线荧光光谱仪分析测定颗粒物样品中的元素组分及有毒有害重金属组分;
采用离子色谱仪分析测定颗粒物样品中的离子组分;
采用碳组分分析仪分析测定颗粒物样品中的有机碳和元素碳;
采用气相色谱-质谱联用仪分析测定颗粒物样品中的多环芳烃。
具体地,通过上述各方式可以分析测定颗粒物样品中的化学组分,比如分析结果可以为:元素包括有Na、Mg、Al、Si、K、Ca、Fe、Zn等;离子包括有Cl-、NO3 -、SO4 2-、NH4 +等;重金属包括有Cr、Co、Mn、Ni、Cu、Cd、Hg、Pb等。
在本申请实施例中,可以采用主成分分析-多元线性回归(PCA-MLR)模型、Unmix模型和正定矩阵因子分解(PMF)模型等多种模型对识别颗粒物样品的源类并计算对应的源类贡献。
具体地,在本申请实施例中,步骤S3中的采用因子分析模型识别颗粒物样品的源类并计算对应的源类贡献包括:采用PMF模型识别颗粒物样品的源类并计算对应的源类贡献。
进一步地,在本申请实施例中,所述颗粒物样品的源类贡献计算公式为:
其中,xij是第i个颗粒物样品中第j种组分的质量浓度(单位为:μg m-3),gik是第k个源类对第i个颗粒物样品的贡献,fkj是第k个源类源谱中第j种组分的含量,eij为残差因子矩阵。
具体地,采用PMF模型识别颗粒物样品的源类并计算对应的源类贡献的具体结果如下:
在本申请实施例中,步骤S4中的识别颗粒物样品中污染源来向并计算对应的污染源来向贡献包括步骤:
采用后向轨迹模型(HYSPLIT)计算采样期间潍坊市气团流动后轨迹,并对后轨迹聚类分析,以识别出污染源可能来向;
获取颗粒物样品的源类贡献时间序列;
将所述时间序列与所述可能来向进行一一对应耦合,以建立PMF-后轨迹耦合模型;
采用所述PMF-后轨迹耦合模型计算污染源来向贡献及对应的分担率。
进一步地,在本申请实施例中,所述污染源来向贡献的计算公式为:
进一步地,在本申请实施例中,所述污染源来向的分担率计算公式为:
在本申请实施例中,步骤S5中的采用风险评估模型评估预设污染源的健康风险包括:
采用风险评估模型计算预设污染源通过吸入途径引起的癌症风险和非癌症风险;
获取污染源来向及对应的来向贡献;
计算预设污染源在预设方向上的风险百分比。
具体地,可以通过如下公式计算预设污染源通过吸入途径引起的癌症风险和非癌症风险。
以重金属为例,其中,第i个重金属组分,从第k个站点的第j个来源的癌症风险和非癌症风险评估如下:
其中,表示人体通过呼吸途径每日的摄入量,单位为:mg/(kg·d);为第k个采样点位中第j种有毒有害组分的质量浓度,单位为:μg m-3;InhR表示呼吸效率,单位为:m3 day-1;EF表示相对暴露频率,表示每年暴露多少天;ED表示暴露时长,表示暴露多少年;BW表示平均体重,单位为:kg;AT表示平均暴露时间(致癌平均暴露时间为70年×365天,非致癌平均暴露时间为30年×365天);表示第j个重金属的第k个站点的第h个源的癌症风险;RfDj表示第j种有毒有害组分的每日参考剂量浓度,表示单位体重人体每天摄入重金属元素不会引起不良反应的最大量,单位为:mg/(kg·d);SFj为经呼吸暴露的致癌斜率系数,表示人体暴露于一定剂量的某种污染物下产生致癌效应的最大概率,单位为:kg·d/mg。表示第j个重金属的第k个站点的第h个源的非癌症风险,表示第k个站点的第h个源的所有重金属的癌症风险总值,表示第k个站点的第h个源的所有重金属的非癌症风险总值,的可接受极限为1,的可接受极限的下限为1×10-6。
计算不同点位的不同来向各个重金属的非致癌风险(HQ),具体如下:
Cr | Co | Ni | As | Cd | Pb | 总和 | |
方向1 | 0.097 | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.015 | 0.001 | 0.019 | 0.155 |
方向2 | 0.066 | 0.025 | 0.000 | 0.018 | 0.001 | 0.015 | 0.126 |
方向3 | 0.014 | 0.034 | 0.000 | 0.018 | 0.001 | 0.011 | 0.078 |
方向4 | 0.010 | 0.028 | 0.000 | 0.015 | 0.001 | 0.007 | 0.062 |
方向5 | 0.014 | 0.057 | 0.000 | 0.022 | 0.001 | 0.008 | 0.104 |
计算不同点位的不同来向各个重金属的致癌风险(R),具体如下:
Cr | Co | Ni | As | Cd | 总和 | |
方向1 | 1.17E-04 | 1.26E-06 | 4.78E-06 | 6.65E-05 | 8.24E-06 | 1.98E-04 |
方向2 | 7.98E-05 | 1.39E-06 | 3.18E-06 | 8.38E-05 | 9.40E-06 | 1.78E-04 |
方向3 | 1.67E-05 | 1.92E-06 | 1.64E-06 | 8.10E-05 | 8.89E-06 | 1.10E-04 |
方向4 | 1.17E-05 | 1.59E-06 | 1.69E-06 | 6.67E-05 | 8.35E-06 | 9.01E-05 |
方向5 | 1.72E-05 | 3.20E-06 | 2.71E-06 | 1.01E-04 | 7.57E-06 | 1.32E-04 |
不同来向毒性评估(RPSCF)方法是基于上述向后轨迹端点的基于网格的统计分析方法,可以定性地确定源特定风险的潜在位置。研究区域被分为i×j个相等的小网格单元,RPSCF分析的第ijth部分的计算公式简要概述如下:
其中,nrab表示采样时间内在ab个网格单元中端点的总数,而mrab表示落在第ab个网格单元中且风险大于或等于风险阈值的个数。如果重金属的风险高于“阈值”水平(癌症风险评估为10-6,非癌症风险评估为1),则将网格的点定义为“对人体健康存在影响的区域”。
计算不同点位的不同来向特定源类对非致癌风险(HQ)的百分占比,具体如下:
燃煤源 | 扬尘源 | 机动车源 | 二次粒子 | 工业源 | |
方向1 | 8.8% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 3.4% |
方向2 | 11.8% | 11.9% | 5.0% | 1.2% | 5.5% |
方向3 | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 2.5% |
方向4 | 1.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
方向5 | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 2.0% |
计算不同点位的不同来向特定源类致癌风险(R)的百分占比,具体如下:
燃煤源 | 扬尘源 | 机动车源 | 二次粒子 | 工业源 | |
方向1 | 9.6% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 4.0% |
方向2 | 12.8% | 10.2% | 5.2% | 1.1% | 6.2% |
方向3 | 7.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 3.0% |
方向4 | 1.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
方向5 | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 2.5% |
本申请提供的一种大气颗粒物健康风险来向源解析方法,可以定量分析预设来向上大气颗粒物对人体健康的风险影响,从而更好地判断特定来向颗粒物的健康风险,有针对性地治理,进而优化源控制策略。
应当理解的是,本发明的上述具体实施方式仅仅用于示例性说明或解释本发明的原理,而不构成对本发明的限制。因此,在不偏离本发明的精神和范围的情况下所做的任何修改、等同替换、改进等,均应包含在本发明的保护范围之内。此外,本发明所附权利要求旨在涵盖落入所附权利要求范围和边界、或者这种范围和边界的等同形式内的全部变化和修改例。
Claims (9)
1.一种大气颗粒物健康风险来向源解析方法,其特征在于,所述方法包括步骤:
采集大气颗粒物,以得到颗粒物样品;
分析测定颗粒物样品中的化学组分;
采用因子分析模型识别颗粒物样品的源类并计算对应的源类贡献;
识别颗粒物样品中污染源来向并计算对应的污染源来向贡献;
采用风险评估模型评估预设污染源的健康风险。
2.根据权利要求1所述的大气颗粒物健康风险来向源解析方法,其特征在于,所述采集大气颗粒物包括:采用大气颗粒物采样器采集大气颗粒物,以得到颗粒物样品。
3.根据权利要求1所述的大气颗粒物健康风险来向源解析方法,其特征在于,所述分析测定颗粒物样品中的化学组分包括步骤:
采用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪、电感耦合原子发射光谱仪或X-射线荧光光谱仪分析测定颗粒物样品中的元素组分及有毒有害重金属组分;
采用离子色谱仪分析测定颗粒物样品中的离子组分;
采用碳组分分析仪分析测定颗粒物样品中的有机碳和元素碳;
采用气相色谱-质谱联用仪分析测定颗粒物样品中的多环芳烃。
4.根据权利要求1所述的大气颗粒物健康风险来向源解析方法,其特征在于,所述采用因子分析模型识别颗粒物样品的源类并计算对应的源类贡献包括:采用PMF模型识别颗粒物样品的源类并计算对应的源类贡献。
6.根据权利要求1所述的大气颗粒物健康风险来向源解析方法,其特征在于,所述识别颗粒物样品中污染源来向并计算对应的污染源来向贡献包括步骤:
采用HYSPLIT模型计算颗粒物样品的流动后轨迹,并对后轨迹聚类分析,以识别出污染源可能来向;
获取颗粒物样品的源类贡献时间序列;
将所述时间序列与所述可能来向进行一一对应耦合,以建立PMF-后轨迹耦合模型;
采用所述PMF-后轨迹耦合模型计算污染源来向贡献及对应的分担率。
9.根据权利要求1所述的大气颗粒物健康风险来向源解析方法,其特征在于,所述采用风险评估模型评估预设污染源的健康风险包括:
采用风险评估模型计算预设污染源通过吸入途径引起的癌症风险和非癌症风险;
获取污染源来向及对应的来向贡献;
计算预设污染源在预设方向上的风险百分比。
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