CN111737793B - Earth-rock dam flood control standard determination method based on dam break risk - Google Patents
Earth-rock dam flood control standard determination method based on dam break risk Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a method for determining flood control standards of earth and rockfill dams based on dam break risks. The invention aims to provide a method for determining flood control standards of earth and rockfill dams based on dam break risks. The technical scheme of the invention is as follows: a method for determining flood control standard of earth and rockfill dam based on dam break risk comprises the following steps: step S1: a flood control standard comparison scheme set is drawn up; step S2: calculating the highest flood level of each flood control standard comparison scheme; step S3: the dam break probability of each flood control standard comparison scheme is deduced; step S4: establishing a dam-break social life loss risk standard based on an ALARP criterion and an F-N curve graph, and eliminating a scheme which is intolerable in flood control standard comparison scheme centralized dam-break social life risk; step S5: and calculating the dam break economic risk amount of the residual flood control standard comparison scheme by considering the downstream economic loss risk and the reservoir economic benefit loss risk caused by engineering investment and dam break, and selecting the flood control standard comparison scheme with the lowest dam break economic risk amount as the recommended flood control standard of the reservoir.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a method for determining flood control standards of earth and rockfill dams based on dam break risks.
Background
The Shenzhen, guangdong, beijing, shanghai and other internationalized cities with high development are emerging in China, and more cities will be in line with the further improvement of the urbanization level in China. Under the influence of the influence, a plurality of reservoirs originally in the field of the suburbs become urban reservoirs nowadays, people downstream of the dams gather and are densely distributed in industry, and once the reservoirs are lost, the life and property safety of people can be seriously damaged. For earth-rock dams, the overflow dam is one of the main reasons of reservoir dam break accidents, so that the flood control standard of the urban earth-rock dam is very important, and the economic performance is reflected and the safety is met.
The flood control standard of the reservoir dam in China is formulated mainly according to three specifications of flood control standard (GB 50201-2014), water conservancy and hydropower engineering grade division and flood standard (SL 252-2017) and hydropower hub engineering grade division and design safety standard (DL 5180-2003), and the three specifications are completely unified in the aspect of the flood control standard of the reservoir. The above specifications mainly consider reservoir engineering scale indexes when determining dam flood control standards, pay more attention to benefits of the water reservoir in national economy, consider the influence of dam accidents on downstream, but consider limited, and increasingly fail to meet flood control safety requirements of part of urban earth-rock dams.
The potential damage of dam break to downstream is more likely to be used as a main consideration index for determining the flood control standard of the dam in developed countries such as the United states, the United kingdom and Canada, and deserves reference. However, most of western countries have great differences from China in terms of economic development level, population and economic space distribution characteristics, and the relevant regulations thereof have shortages in consideration of the effects of reservoirs in national economy, so that the reservoirs cannot be directly adopted.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problems that: aiming at the problems, the method for determining the flood control standard of the earth-rock dam based on the dam break risk is provided.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: the method for determining the flood control standard of the earth-rock dam based on the dam break risk is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step S1: a flood control standard comparison scheme set is drawn up;
step S2: calculating the highest flood level of each flood control standard comparison scheme;
step S3: the dam break probability of each flood control standard comparison scheme is deduced;
step S4: establishing a dam-break social life loss risk standard based on an ALARP criterion and an F-N curve graph, and eliminating a scheme which is intolerable in flood control standard comparison scheme centralized dam-break social life risk;
step S5: and calculating the dam break economic risk amount of the residual flood control standard comparison scheme by considering the downstream economic loss risk caused by engineering investment and dam break and the reservoir economic benefit beneficial loss risk, and selecting the flood control standard comparison scheme with the lowest dam break economic risk amount as the recommended flood control standard of the reservoir.
Further, in the step S1, a set of flood control standard alternatives is formulated, and the step further includes the following sub-steps:
step S11: according to the engineering scale characteristics of the reservoir dam, adopting a check flood standard specified by national specifications as a flood control standard ratio selection lower limit scheme, and marking as FS 1 ；
Step S12: the theoretical highest flood standard of the reservoir is adopted as a flood control standard to select an upper limit scheme, and is marked as FS N ；
Step S13: a plurality of flood control standard schemes are generated in a discrete mode within the upper limit and the lower limit, and a comparison scheme set is built and is marked as FS= { FS 1 ,FS 2 ,…,FS N And N is the number of flood control standard comparison schemes.
Further, in the step S2, the highest flood level of each flood control standard alternative is calculated, and the step further includes the following sub-steps:
step S21: the corresponding design flood of each flood control standard comparison scheme is deduced;
step S22: analyzing a flood control scheduling principle of a reservoir, and establishing a reservoir flood control calculation model;
step S23: inputting the design flood process into a flood regulating calculation model, calculating to obtain the highest flood level index of the reservoir according to each flood control standard and selection scheme, and marking as Z= { Z 1 ,Z 2 ,…,Z N }。
The method for determining the flood control standard of the earth-rock dam based on the dam break risk according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the step S3 includes the following sub-steps:
further, in the step S3, the dam break probability of each flood control standard alternative is deduced, and the step further includes the following sub-steps:
step S31: carrying out random simulation of flood according to the design flood statistical characteristics deduced in the step S21, and respectively constructing a set containing T (T is more than or equal to 10000) flood processes according to each flood control standard comparison scheme;
step S32: respectively carrying out independent flood regulating calculation on T flood processes of each flood control standard comparison scheme in the step S31 by using the reservoir flood regulating calculation model established in the step S22 to obtain T simulated highest flood levels;
step S33: and calculating dam break probability of each flood control standard comparison scheme by adopting the following statistics:
wherein: p (P) i Representing FS i Scheme (FS) i E FS, i=1, 2, …, N); t (T) z Representing FS i Exceeding Z in T simulated maximum floods of the scheme i (Z i E Z, i=1, 2, …, N).
Further, in the step S4, a dam-break social life loss risk standard based on the ALARP criterion and the F-N graph is established, and a scheme with intolerable dam-break social life risk is selected from the set of alternatives of the flood control standard, and the step further includes the following sub-steps:
step S41: based on an ALARP criterion, drawing an F-N graph with the quantity of the life losses of the society as an abscissa axis and the dam break probability as an ordinate axis, and establishing a dam break social life loss risk standard;
step S42: dam break social life risk set LR= { LR of each flood control standard comparison scheme is counted 1 , LR 2 ,…,LR N }, where LR is i ＝(LL,P i ) (i=1, 2, …, N) is FS i Scheme (FS) i E FS, i=1, 2, …, N), LL is the life of the reservoir caused by the dam breakThe amount lost;
step S43: drawing the point data contained in LR on an F-N curve graph, directly removing flood control standard comparison schemes of the falling points in the risk unacceptable areas, and reserving the flood control standard comparison schemes of the falling points in the risk acceptable areas or the risk acceptable areas;
step S44: the reserved flood control standard schemes form a new comparison scheme set FS' = { FS k ,FS k+1 ,…,FS N The scheme before the kth (k=1, 2, …, N) flood control standard comparison scheme is a culling scheme;
step S45: if all flood control standard comparison schemes are eliminated, directly selecting an upper limit flood control standard scheme FS N Recommended flood control standard scheme FS as reservoir rec 。
Further, in the step S5, the economic risk amount of the remaining flood control standard comparison scheme is calculated by taking into consideration the downstream economic loss risk and the reservoir economic benefit loss risk caused by engineering investment and dam break, and the calculation is performed by adopting the following formula:
TC i ＝I i +RDB i +REB i
EI y ＝(1+β)·EID y
wherein: TC (TC) i Representing FS i Scheme (FS) i E FS', FS, i=k, k+1, …, N) economic risk amount; i i Representing FS i Project construction investment of the scheme reservoir; RDB (RDB) i Representing FS i Economic loss risk of downstream dam break of the scheme; REB (REB) i Representing FS i The economic benefit loss risk of dam break of the scheme reservoir; y represents the calculated operation age of the reservoir; EI (electronic equipment) y Representing downstream economic losses due to the assumption that dam break occurred in the Y-th year (y=1, 2, …, Y); beta representsAn economic loss coefficient of the trip joint; EID (electronic identity) y Representing the direct economic loss downstream from the assumption that dam break occurred in the Y-th year (y=1, 2, …, Y); gamma represents a social discount rate; m represents the number of functions born by the comprehensive utilization reservoir; b (B) m Represents the average economic benefit over years produced by the M-th function of the reservoir (m=1, 2, …, M).
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows: compared with the prior art, the invention takes risk management as thought, can make the flood control standard of the earth-rock dam on the premise of taking tolerable social life loss as key, takes the optimal economic cost as main principle, and the made flood control standard equally pays attention to the effect of the reservoir itself in national economy and the potential hazard of dam break to downstream, thus being widely applied to the determination of the flood control standard of the earth-rock dam, and being particularly suitable for the urban earth-rock dam which is continuously emerging.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of an embodiment.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a dam-break social life loss risk criteria in an embodiment.
Detailed Description
As shown in fig. 1, the embodiment is a method for determining a flood control standard of an earth-rock dam based on dam break risk, which specifically comprises the following steps:
step S1: and (5) developing a flood control standard comparison scheme set.
In this implementation step, a set of flood control standard alternatives is formulated, the step further comprising the sub-steps of:
step S11: according to the engineering scale characteristics of the reservoir dam, adopting a check flood standard specified by national specifications as a flood control standard ratio selection lower limit scheme, and marking as FS 1 ；
Step S12: the theoretical highest flood standard of the reservoir is adopted as a flood control standard to select an upper limit scheme, and is marked as FS N ，FS N Selecting the maximum value of PMF flood, once-a-year flood (P=0.01%) and extremely combined storm flood according to the availability and reliability of the data;
step S13: a plurality of flood control standard schemes are discretely generated within the upper limit and the lower limit to constructThe set of alternatives is denoted as fs= { FS 1 ,FS 2 ,…,FS N And N is the number of flood control standard comparison schemes.
Step S2: and calculating the highest flood level of each flood control standard comparison scheme.
In this implementation step, the highest flood level of each flood control standard alternative is calculated, and the step further includes the following sub-steps:
step S21: the corresponding design flood of each flood control standard comparison scheme is deduced;
step S22: analyzing a flood control scheduling principle of a reservoir, and establishing a reservoir flood control calculation model;
step S23: inputting the design flood process into a flood regulating calculation model, calculating to obtain the highest flood level index of the reservoir according to each flood control standard and selection scheme, and marking as Z= { Z 1 ,Z 2 ,…,Z N }。
Step S3: and deducing dam break probability of each flood control standard comparison scheme.
In the implementation step, the dam break probability of each flood control standard comparison scheme is deduced, and the step further comprises the following sub-steps:
step S31: carrying out random simulation of flood according to the design flood statistical characteristics deduced in the step S21, and respectively constructing a set containing T (T is more than or equal to 10000) flood processes according to each flood control standard comparison scheme;
step S32: respectively carrying out independent flood regulating calculation on T flood processes of each flood control standard comparison scheme in the step S31 by using the reservoir flood regulating calculation model established in the step S22 to obtain T simulated highest flood levels;
step S33: and calculating dam break probability of each flood control standard comparison scheme by adopting the following statistics:
wherein: p (P) i Representing FS i Scheme (FS) i E FS, i=1, 2, …, N); t (T) z Representing FS i Of the T simulated highest floods of the schemeExceeding Z i (Z i ∈Z i I=1, 2, …, N).
Step S4: establishing a dam-break social life loss risk standard based on an ALARP criterion and an F-N curve chart, and eliminating a scheme which is intolerable in the flood control standard comparison scheme and centralized dam-break social life risk.
In the implementation step, establishing a dam-break social life loss risk standard based on an ALARP criterion and an F-N curve chart, and eliminating a scheme which is intolerable to the dam-break social life risk in a flood control standard alternative scheme set, wherein the step further comprises the following sub-steps:
step S41: based on an ALARP criterion, drawing an F-N graph with the quantity of the life losses of the society as an abscissa axis and the dam break probability as an ordinate axis, and establishing a dam break social life loss risk standard;
step S42: dam break social life risk set LR= { LR of each flood control standard comparison scheme is counted 1 , LR 2 ,…,LR N }, where LR is i ＝(LL,P i ) (i=1, 2, …, N) is FS i Scheme (FS) i E, FS, i=1, 2, …, N), LL is the number of life losses caused by a dam break in the reservoir;
step S43: drawing the point data contained in LR on an F-N curve graph, directly removing flood control standard comparison schemes of the falling points in the risk unacceptable areas, and reserving the flood control standard comparison schemes of the falling points in the risk acceptable areas or the risk acceptable areas;
step S44: the reserved flood control standard schemes form a new comparison scheme set FS' = { FS k ,FS k+1 ,…,FS N The scheme before the kth (k=1, 2, …, N) flood control standard comparison scheme is a culling scheme;
step S45: if all flood control standard comparison schemes are eliminated, directly selecting an upper limit flood control standard scheme FS N Recommended flood control standard scheme FS as reservoir rec 。
Step S5: and calculating the dam break economic risk amount of the residual flood control standard comparison scheme by considering the downstream economic loss risk caused by engineering investment and dam break and the reservoir economic benefit beneficial loss risk, and selecting the flood control standard comparison scheme with the lowest dam break economic risk amount as the recommended flood control standard of the reservoir.
In the implementation step, the economic risk amount of the residual flood control standard comparison scheme is calculated by considering the downstream economic loss risk and reservoir economic benefit loss risk caused by engineering investment and dam break, and the following formula is adopted for calculation:
TC i ＝I i +RDB i +REB i
EI y ＝(1+β)·EID y
wherein: TC (TC) i Representing FS i Scheme (FS) i E FS', FS, i=k, k+1, …, N) economic risk amount; i i Representing FS i Project construction investment of the scheme reservoir; RDB (RDB) i Representing FS i Economic loss risk of downstream dam break of the scheme; REB (REB) i Representing FS i The economic benefit loss risk of dam break of the scheme reservoir; y represents the calculated operation age of the reservoir; EI (electronic equipment) y Representing downstream economic losses due to the assumption that dam break occurred in the Y-th year (y=1, 2, …, Y); beta represents a downstream indirect economic loss coefficient; EID (electronic identity) y Representing the direct economic loss downstream from the assumption that dam break occurred in the Y-th year (y=1, 2, …, Y); gamma represents a social discount rate; m represents the number of functions born by the comprehensive utilization reservoir; b (B) m Represents the average economic benefit over years produced by the M-th function of the reservoir (m=1, 2, …, M).
Claims (4)
1. A method for determining flood control standards of earth and rockfill dams based on dam break risk is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1: a flood control standard comparison scheme set is drawn up; the step S1 comprises the following sub-steps:
step S11: according to the engineering scale characteristics of the reservoir dam, adopting a check flood standard specified by national specifications as a flood control standard ratio selection lower limit scheme, and marking as FS 1 ；
Step S12: the theoretical highest flood standard of the reservoir is adopted as a flood control standard to select an upper limit scheme, and is marked as FS N ；
Step S13: a plurality of flood control standard schemes are generated in a discrete mode within the upper limit and the lower limit, and a comparison scheme set is built and is marked as FS= { FS 1 ,FS 2 ,…,FS N N is the number of flood control standard comparison schemes;
step S2: calculating the highest flood level of each flood control standard comparison scheme; the step S2 comprises the following sub-steps:
step S21: the corresponding design flood of each flood control standard comparison scheme is deduced;
step S22: analyzing a flood control scheduling principle of a reservoir, and establishing a reservoir flood control calculation model;
step S23: inputting the design flood process into a flood regulating calculation model, calculating to obtain the highest flood level index of each flood control standard comparison scheme reservoir, and marking as Z= { Z 1 ,Z 2 ,…,Z N }；
Step S3: the dam break probability of each flood control standard comparison scheme is deduced;
step S4: establishing a dam-break social life loss risk standard based on an ALARP criterion and an F-N curve graph, and eliminating a scheme which is intolerable in flood control standard comparison scheme centralized dam-break social life risk;
step S5: and calculating the dam break economic risk amount of the residual flood control standard comparison scheme by considering the downstream economic loss risk and the reservoir economic benefit loss risk caused by engineering investment and dam break, and selecting the flood control standard comparison scheme with the lowest dam break economic risk amount as the recommended flood control standard of the reservoir.
2. The method for determining the flood control standard of the earth-rock dam based on the dam break risk according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the step S3 includes the following sub-steps:
step S31: carrying out random simulation of flood according to the design flood statistical characteristics deduced in the step S21, and respectively constructing a set containing T flood processes by each flood control standard comparison scheme, wherein T is more than or equal to 10000;
step S32: respectively carrying out independent flood regulating calculation on T flood processes of each flood control standard comparison scheme in the step S31 by using the reservoir flood regulating calculation model established in the step S22 to obtain T simulated highest flood levels;
step S33: and calculating dam break probability of each flood control standard comparison scheme by adopting the following statistics:
wherein: p (P) i Representing FS i Scheme (FS) i E FS, i=1, 2, …, N); t (T) z Representing FS i Exceeding Z in T simulated maximum floods of the scheme i (Z i E Z, i=1, 2, …, N).
3. The method for determining the flood control standard of the earth-rock dam based on the dam break risk according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the step S4 includes the following sub-steps:
step S41: based on an ALARP criterion, drawing an F-N graph with the quantity of the life losses of the society as an abscissa axis and the dam break probability as an ordinate axis, and establishing a dam break social life loss risk standard;
step S42: dam break social life risk set LR= { LR of each flood control standard comparison scheme is counted 1 ,LR 2 ,…,LR N }, where LR is i ＝(LL,P i ) (i=1, 2, …, N) is FS i Scheme (FS) i E FS, i=1, 2, …, N), LL is the number of life losses due to reservoir dam break, P i Representing FS i Scheme (FS) i E FS, i=1, 2, …, N);
step S43: drawing point data contained in LR on an F-N curve graph, directly eliminating flood control standard comparison schemes of falling points in a risk unacceptable area, and reserving flood control standard comparison schemes of falling points in a risk acceptable area or a risk acceptable area;
step S44: the reserved flood control standard schemes form a new comparison scheme set FS' = { FS k ,FS k+1 ,…,FS N The scheme before the kth (k=1, 2, …, N) flood control standard comparison scheme is the culling scheme;
step S45: if all flood control standard comparison schemes are eliminated, directly selecting an upper limit flood control standard scheme FS N Recommended flood control standard scheme FS as reservoir rec 。
4. The method for determining the flood control standard of the earth-rock dam based on the dam break risk according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: in the step S5, the FS i Scheme (FS) i E FS', i=k, k+1, …, N) dam break economic risk amount TC i (i=1, 2, …, N) is calculated using the following formula:
TC i ＝I i +RDB i +REB i
EI y ＝(1+β)·EID y
wherein: i i Representing FS i Project construction investment of the scheme reservoir; RDB (RDB) i Representing FS i Economic loss risk of downstream dam break of the scheme; REB (REB) i Representing FS i The economic benefit loss risk of dam break of the scheme reservoir; y represents the calculated operation age of the reservoir; EI (electronic equipment) y Representing downstream economic losses due to assuming that a dam break occurred in the Y-th year (y=1, 2, …, Y); beta represents a downstream indirect economic loss coefficient; EID (electronic identity) y Representing the direct economic loss downstream from the assumption that dam break occurred in the Y-th year (y=1, 2, …, Y); gamma represents a social discount rate; m represents the work born by the comprehensive utilization reservoirEnergy amount; b (B) m Represents the average economic benefit of the reservoir for years produced by the M-th function (m=1, 2, …, M).
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN206070474U (en) * | 2016-09-26 | 2017-04-05 | 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 | A kind of earth and rockfill dam flood control safety monitoring and warning system |
| CN107330274A (en) * | 2017-06-30 | 2017-11-07 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Consider the safe computational methods of earth and rockfill dam group control step sluicing of upstream dam bursting flood |
| CN110044338A (en) * | 2019-04-29 | 2019-07-23 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | A kind of the unmanned plane monitoring method and system of the dam break scene that inrushes |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN206070474U (en) * | 2016-09-26 | 2017-04-05 | 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 | A kind of earth and rockfill dam flood control safety monitoring and warning system |
| CN107330274A (en) * | 2017-06-30 | 2017-11-07 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Consider the safe computational methods of earth and rockfill dam group control step sluicing of upstream dam bursting flood |
| CN110044338A (en) * | 2019-04-29 | 2019-07-23 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | A kind of the unmanned plane monitoring method and system of the dam break scene that inrushes |
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