CN117034810A - Dynamic evaluation and early warning method and system for submerged risk of electric power facility - Google Patents
Dynamic evaluation and early warning method and system for submerged risk of electric power facility Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a dynamic evaluation and early warning method and system for submerged risk of an electric power facility, comprising the following steps: collecting meteorological data, geographic data, and electrical utility data; grid treatment is carried out on the electric power facility area, rainfall intensity is obtained, and the ponding depth of the cells where the electric power facility is located is calculated through iteration of the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model; calculating a ponding inundation risk factor according to the ponding depth and a secondary inundation threshold value of the corresponding electric power facility, and calculating a inundation risk value of the electric power facility according to the ponding inundation risk factor, the equipment type factor, the fault type factor and the hazard degree thereof; judging the submerged risk level according to the set risk threshold value, and determining a corresponding early warning level; and carrying out early warning marking on the visual GIS early warning map according to the coordinates and the early warning level of the electric power facilities. The method improves the accuracy of the simulation result of the storm flooding process and the accuracy of the power facility flooding risk assessment.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of disaster prevention and reduction of electric power facilities, in particular to a dynamic evaluation and early warning method and system for submerged risk of electric power facilities.
Background
Under the combined action of climate change and urbanization, the influence of extreme rainfall flood on cities is increasingly remarkable, and the extreme nature, complexity, linkage and amplification of disasters bring great potential threat to the normal operation of electric power facilities. The occurrence of extreme storm flood event is more and more frequent, and higher requirements are put forward on the real-time monitoring and accurate forecasting of disasters, meanwhile, under the threat of the storm flood disaster, the vulnerability of the electric power facilities against the disaster event with small probability and high risk is gradually highlighted, so that the scientific implementation of the external safety risk early warning and disaster prevention and reduction measures of the electric power facilities becomes an important research subject. The surface inundation caused by the storm affects the stable operation of the electric power facilities, and if the key facilities are faulty or damaged, the power failure accident occurs, and if serious, the power supply system is possibly paralyzed.
In the aspect of dynamic evaluation and research of the storm inundation risk of the existing electric power facilities, the operation risk of various facilities under the influence of natural disasters such as storm and the like is mainly evaluated according to monitoring data, and three general methods are three categories, namely statistical analysis, simulation analysis and predictive evaluation; however, the simulation accuracy of the flooding process is required to be improved, and the accuracy of the power facility flooding risk assessment is required to be improved, so that early warning cannot be timely and accurately performed, and serious potential safety hazards and economic losses are caused.
Disclosure of Invention
First, the technical problem to be solved
Based on the problems, the invention provides a dynamic evaluation and early warning method and a system for the submerged risk of an electric power facility, which solve the problems that the simulation accuracy of the submerged process needs to be improved and the accuracy of the submerged risk evaluation of the electric power facility needs to be improved.
(II) technical scheme
Based on the technical problems, the invention provides a power facility flooding risk dynamic assessment and early warning method, which comprises the following steps:
s1, collecting meteorological data, geographic data and electric power facility data;
s2, carrying out gridding treatment on the electric power facility area, acquiring rainfall intensity of the corresponding area by utilizing electric power facility coordinates, and iteratively calculating the ponding depth of the cells of the electric power facility by utilizing a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model;
s3, calculating a ponding submerged risk factor according to the ponding depth and a secondary submerged threshold value of the corresponding electric power facility, and calculating a submerged risk value of the electric power facility according to the ponding submerged risk factor, the equipment type factor, the fault type factor and the hazard degree thereof;
s4, judging the corresponding submerged risk level of the electric power facility according to the set three-level risk threshold value, and determining the corresponding early warning level;
and S5, performing early warning marking on the visual GIS early warning map according to the coordinates and the early warning level of the electric power facilities.
Further, in the step S1, the meteorological data includes: rainfall data; the geographic data includes: digital elevation of DEM, drainage facility data, building coverage rate, geological type and infiltration speed thereof; the electrical utility data includes: power utility coordinates, power utility type, power utility fault type, and severity data.
Further, the step S2 includes:
s21, carrying out gridding treatment on the electric power facility area, and carrying out dynamic flooding simulation by using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model;
s22, calculating the pressure of the accumulated water of each cell under the surrounding water and the ground friction;
s23, calculating the water flow speed V according to the law of conservation of momentum;
s24, calculating water flow in the adjacent grid flowing process within a time interval delta t according to the building coverage rate;
s25, calculating drainage in two aspects of a catch basin and underground water seepage;
s26, carrying out iterative computation to obtain the water accumulation depth of the unit cell z of the electric power facility at the time t+delta t:
d () represents the depth of water accumulation in relation to time t and q represents the net rainfall intensity.
Further, the step S21 includes:
grid processing is carried out on a region where the electric power facilities are located, each electric power facility node is located in one cell, and the darker places indicate lower terrain and are more prone to water accumulation;
assuming that the power facility node is z cells, 8 adjacent cells are arranged around the power facility node according to grid division, namely, the north upper N, the south lower S, the west left W, the east right E, the north west NW, the north east NE, the south west SW and the south east SE of the z cells, but the accumulated water of the z cells only flows in or out through the cells in the four directions N, S, W, E, and the flow direction is determined according to the elevation difference of the two cells.
Further, the step S22 includes:
setting the width and height of the unit cells as delta x and delta y respectively; the depth of the water accumulation is D, d=d (t) which is related to time;
the pressure of the surrounding water:
the ground friction force:
wherein, deltax, deltay are the width and height of the unit cell respectively; g is gravity acceleration;the water surface elevation is the ground height plus the water depth; k is the unit conversion factor; n is the Manning coefficient; v is the water flow rate.
Further, the step S23 includes:
assuming that the horizontal speed of the newly-lowered rainwater is accelerated from 0 to the water flow speed V of the accumulated water in the time interval delta t, the accumulated water flow equation is obtained by the law of conservation of momentum:
(f 1 +f 2 )Δt＝m(V-O)＝ρqΔxΔyΔtV
and (3) unfolding to obtain:
thus solving to obtain |V|, and omitting the negative root to obtain the water flow velocity V.
Further, the step S24 includes: in the time interval delta t, the water flow rate in the flowing process of the adjacent grids is as follows:
Q * ＝λV * DL * Δt
wherein,average value of theta of two cells in water taking flow direction, theta is calculated as the occupied area proportion of building in cell, Q * Represents the water flow of rainwater in the x-direction, which refers to the four directions Nz, sz, wz, ez, Q around cell z * Positive indicates rain inflow to the z cell, negative indicates outflow; v (V) * Indicating the water flow velocity of the stormwater in the x direction; l (L) * The flow width in the x direction is denoted, nz, sz is Δx, wz, ez is Δy.
Further, the step S25 includes: displacement P at time t:
P(t)＝P 1 (t)+P 2 (t)
P 2 (t)＝(1-θ)βΔxΔyV s t
wherein P is 1 (t) represents the drainage amount of the catch basin at the time t; c is the number of drainage wells in the unit cell; mu is the drainage coefficient, mu is [0,1 ]]；S p The wellhead area of the drainage well; p (P) 2 (t) represents the terrain water seepage quantity at the moment t; beta is the infiltration coefficient, theta is the building coverage in the unit cell.
Further, the step S3 includes:
s31, calculating a ponding inundation risk factor F according to the ponding depth and a secondary inundation threshold value of the corresponding electric power facility d ：
Wherein D is the height of the accumulated water and corresponds to the depth D of the accumulated water; sigma is a probability coefficient; a is a secondary flooding threshold value, b is a primary flooding threshold value;
s32, counting equipment types of the power equipment, and assigning equipment type factors F e (i) The device types include: a power station, a transformer substation, a distribution room and a transmission tower;
s33, counting fault types corresponding to various equipment types, and assigning a fault type factor F ef (j) The fault types include: single-component fault tripping, bus NI fault tripping, double-loop fault tripping, main transformer N-2 fault tripping, N2 bus fault tripping;
s34, quantifying the damage degree of each equipment type in each fault type according to the voltage and the load of the power equipment node, and giving a corresponding risk damage value S (j);
s35, calculating to obtain a submerged risk value of the electric power facility through an improved risk value calculation formula according to the ponding submerged risk factor, the equipment type factor, the fault type factor and the hazard degree thereof:
where i denotes the device type index i=1, 2, …, m; j denotes the fault type label j=1, 2, …, n.
The invention also discloses a power facility flooding risk dynamic assessment and early warning system, which comprises:
at least one processor; and at least one memory communicatively coupled to the processor, wherein:
the memory stores program instructions executable by the processor, the processor invoking the program instructions to perform the method.
(III) beneficial effects
The technical scheme of the invention has the following advantages:
(1) According to the invention, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model is utilized to dynamically simulate a storm inundation power facility, a ponding evolution process is calculated, various influencing factors are synthesized, the distribution and space-time variation of accurate reaction ponding are compared, on the basis of improving the accuracy of a simulation result in the storm inundation process and the accuracy of inundation risk assessment of the power facility, the characteristics of the space-time dynamic variation of the power facility risk are analyzed, and the rapidity and the accuracy of an intelligent algorithm are utilized to timely and accurately early warn the inundation risk of the power infrastructure, so that guiding suggestions are provided for disaster early warning and disaster prevention and disaster reduction decision making of the power system, so that management staff can timely and rapidly make precautions, the working efficiency is improved, the disaster loss is reduced, the occurrence of accidents is reduced, and the safe operation of the power system is effectively ensured;
(2) According to the invention, factors such as rainfall, topography, geology, a rainwater well and the like are comprehensively considered in the calculation of the ponding depth, so that the accuracy of calculation of the ponding depth is improved, and the accuracy of simulation results of the electric power facilities submerged by the storm is improved;
(3) According to the invention, the waterproof heights of different types of electric power facilities are considered, the severity of fault types is different, the risk probability is calculated according to the ponding depth and the submerged height threshold fitting exponential function, and different fault types of different equipment types of the electric power system are combined, and the ponding submerged risk factors, the equipment type factors and the fault type factors are considered to improve the traditional risk value calculation method, so that the risk value is more consistent with the real situation of a specific electric power facility, and the accuracy of the submerged risk assessment of the electric power facility is further improved;
(4) The invention sets the corresponding risk level range, provides three-level risk assessment and early warning levels, correspondingly sets the accurate mark position on the map according to the coordinates of the electric power facilities, sets the early warning color mark according to different risk levels, and clearly displays the map with the early warning mark by utilizing a large screen so as to more intuitively display the early warning position.
Drawings
The features and advantages of the present invention will be more clearly understood by reference to the accompanying drawings, which are illustrative and should not be construed as limiting the invention in any way, in which:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for dynamically evaluating and pre-warning submerged risk of an electric power facility according to an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic illustration of regional meshing of an electrical facility in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of the flow direction of the accumulated water in each cell according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a grid-like power facility node wiring diagram of an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a timing chart of the rainfall intensity of extreme heavy rain according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 6 is a risk early warning distribution diagram according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following describes in further detail the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the drawings and examples. The following examples are illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
The embodiment of the invention relates to a dynamic evaluation and early warning method for submerged risk of an electric power facility, which is shown in fig. 1 and comprises the following steps:
s1, collecting meteorological data, geographic data and electric power facility data;
wherein, meteorological data includes: rainfall data; the geographic data includes: DEM digital elevation, drainage facility data, building coverage, geological type and related infiltration rate data; the electrical utility data includes: electric utility coordinates, electric utility type, electric utility primary fault type, and severity data;
the rainfall data is precipitation, the predicted rainfall information is obtained through a weather service interface, the weather service interface can obtain rainfall intensity, duration and other data of a region where the weather service interface is located according to geographical longitude and latitude coordinates of an electric power facility, and then the precipitation of a certain period of time can be calculated through the following formula (1):
I(t) ＝q*t (1)
wherein: t is the rainfall duration period; q is the rainfall intensity of the period t; i (t) is the precipitation amount of the t period.
S2, carrying out gridding treatment on the electric power facility area, acquiring rainfall intensity of the corresponding area by utilizing electric power facility coordinates, and iteratively calculating the ponding depth of the cells of the electric power facility by utilizing a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model;
s21, carrying out gridding treatment on the electric power facility area, and carrying out dynamic flooding simulation by using the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps of:
the grid treatment is carried out on a region where the electric power facilities are located, as shown in fig. 2, dots in the diagram represent electric power facility nodes, each electric power facility node is located in one cell, precipitation in stormwater weather can flow from a high cell to a low cell according to different terrain elevations around the electric power facilities, and places with darker colors in fig. 2 represent places with lower terrain and easier water accumulation. As shown in fig. 3, assuming that the electric facility node is a z cell, 8 adjacent cells are arranged around the z cell according to grid division, namely, the north upper N, the south lower S, the west left W, the east right E, the north west NW, the north east NE, the south west SW and the south east SE of the z cell, but the accumulated water of the z cell only flows in or out through the cells in four directions N, S, W, E, and particularly flows to the z cell according to the elevation difference judgment of the two cells.
Taking an area defined by a power transmission line of 7 nodes as an example, carrying out extreme storm inundation simulation and risk assessment on the area, as shown in a grid power facility node line diagram of fig. 4, collecting digital elevation data files of DEM (digital elevation model) according to coordinates of 7 power facilities, positioning and marking the coordinates, cutting out a rectangular area, and then gridding, wherein the width and the height of each grid are 90 meters, and the numbers and the corresponding coordinates of the nodes marked in the diagram are respectively: node 1 (126.31802261, 45.83672906), node 2 (126.37793726, 45.79811170), node 3 (126.39981127, 45.74381183), node 4 (126.40127863, 45.73862973) and node 5 (126.40425998, 45.72835019), node 6 (126.40870091, 45.71520696), node 7 (126.38554657, 45.70066183).
Then, the rainfall intensity data of the corresponding area is obtained through coordinates, and the 7 electric facilities are considered to be in a zone, the same rainfall intensity is used for simulation, the rainfall intensity is changed with time, the rainfall intensity change curve of 240 minutes which is within two hours is simulated at intervals of 30 minutes, the time sequence diagram of the rainfall intensity is obtained as shown in fig. 5, and the maximum rainfall intensity reaches 8.52 millimeters per minute at 60 minutes.
S22, calculating the pressure of the accumulated water of each cell under the surrounding water and the ground friction;
setting the width and height of the unit cells as delta x and delta y respectively; the water accumulation depth is D which is related to time, D=D (t); the mass of the water m=ρdΔxΔy, where ρ is the density of the water. The resultant pressure of the surrounding water is obtained according to the following formula:
wherein: g is gravity acceleration;the water surface elevation is the ground height plus the water depth.
The ground friction is obtained according to the following:
wherein: k is the unit conversion factor; n is the Manning coefficient; v is the water flow rate; r is R h Is the hydraulic radius, i.e. the ratio of the cross-sectional fluid area to the water flow width, in the present invention the water depth D, since the resistance direction is always opposite to the flow velocity, the vector form of formula (3) is:
s23, calculating the water flow speed V according to the law of conservation of momentum;
considering that the horizontal velocity of newly falling rainwater needs to be rapidly accelerated from 0 to the water velocity V of the accumulated water, the net rainfall intensity q is known, derived from equation (1) and the accumulated water mass formula, and the mass of rainwater falling into the cells is m=ρΔx Δyi (t) =ρqΔx Δy Δt in the time interval Δt. The equation of the flow of the accumulated water can be obtained by the law of conservation of momentum as follows:
(f 1 +f 2 )Δt＝m(V-O)＝ρqΔxΔyΔtV (5)
the unfolding can be obtained:
equation (6) is a unitary quadratic equation for |v| and solving the omitted negative root yields the water velocity V.
S24, calculating water flow in the adjacent grid flowing process within a time interval delta t according to the building coverage rate;
in combination with the influence of the building coverage rate theta on the water flow, theta is the occupied area proportion of the building in the cell, and the ratio of the width of the water flowing through to the width of the cell is approximately calculated as An average value of two cells theta in the water flow direction. Then the water flow rate in the adjacent grid flowing process is calculated as follows:
Q * ＝λV * DL * Δt (7)
wherein: q (Q) * Represents the water flow of rainwater in the x-direction, which refers to the four directions Nz, sz, wz, ez, Q around cell z * Positive indicates rain inflow to the z cell, negative indicates outflow; v (V) * Indicating the water flow velocity of the stormwater in the x direction; l (L) * The flow width in the x direction is denoted, nz, sz is Δx, wz, ez is Δy.
S25, calculating drainage in two aspects of a catch basin and underground water seepage;
meanwhile, drainage factors are considered, drainage is considered from two aspects of a rainwater well and underground water seepage, the drainage is taken as negative water flow, and the calculation formula of the drainage P at the moment t is as follows:
P(t)＝P 1 (t)+P 2 (t) (8)
p in formula (8) 1 (t) represents the drainage amount of the rainwater wells at the moment t, and is calculated by the following formula (9), wherein c is the number of the drainage wells in the unit cell; mu is the drainage coefficient, mu is [0,1 ]]；S p The wellhead area of the drainage well:
p in formula (8) 2 (t) represents the terrain water seepage quantity at the moment t, and the calculation formula is as follows, wherein beta is a infiltration coefficient, theta is the building coverage rate in a cell, and V s Is the infiltration rate.
P 2 (t) ＝(1-θ)βΔxΔyV s t (10)
S26, carrying out iterative computation to obtain the water accumulation depth in the time interval delta t of the cell z where the electric power facility is located:
combining the water accumulation height at the time t and the water accumulation depth of the cell z of the electric power facility at the time t+delta t, and carrying out iterative calculation to obtain the water accumulation depth of the cell z of the electric power facility at the time t+delta t:
according to the formulas (7) to (10), there are obtained:
in this embodiment, the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to calculate the water accumulation depth of the cells where the electric power facility is located, and from the elevation information of fig. 4, it is easy to see that the cells where the nodes 3 (126.39981127, 45.74381183), 4 (126.40127863, 45.73862973) and 5 (126.40425998, 45.72835019) are located are darker in color, which represents that the topography is lower and water accumulation is easier. Taking the calculation of the node 5 as an example, the elevation of the cell z where the node is located is 112m, and the elevations of the adjacent cells are respectively north N:119m, south S:118m, western W:115m, orient E:117m. It can be seen that the cells of the field are all higher than the cells where the electrical facilities are located, so that water flows from the surrounding cells into the z cells. Rainfall intensity q=7mm/min at a certain time in the setting example, calculated water flow velocity V in Nz direction Nz =0.0156 m/s, water depth D of 0.1 m, building coverage of two cells of N and z of θ 1 =0.1 and θ 2 =0.06, the runoff width ratio of water can be calculated as:
flow-through width in the Nz direction is equal to cell width L Nz =90 meters, estimated at Δt=30 minutes as time interval, then the water flow rate is:
Q Nz ＝λV Nz DL * Δt＝0.6×0.0156×0.1×90×30×60
＝151.632m 3
similarly, assume that water flow Q in the Sz direction is calculated Sz ＝149.564m 3 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Water flow rate Q in Wz direction Wz ＝108.895m 3 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Water flow Q in Ez direction Ez ＝134.232m 3 。
Considering the drainage, the total drainage is the drainage of the catch basin plus the underground water seepage, assuming the number of drainage wells in the cell z is c=2, the drainage coefficient μ=30s, the wellhead area S of the drainage wells p ＝0.35m 2 The gravitational acceleration is g=9.8 m/s 2 The drainage of the catch basin is:
according to the difference of water seepage speeds of different geology, assume that the infiltration speed of the land geology of the cell z where the electric power facility node 5 is positioned is V s Let the infiltration coefficient β=0.001, calculate the rain infiltration amount as:
P 2 (t)＝(1-θ)βΔxΔyV s t＝(1-0.06)×0.001×90×90×0.002×30×60
＝27.41m 3
total displacement P (t) =p 1 (t)+P 2 (t)＝42+27.41＝69.41m 3 The water accumulation depth of the cell z where the electric power facility at the time t+deltat can be obtained is calculated as follows:
s3, calculating a ponding submerged risk factor according to the ponding depth and a secondary submerged threshold value of the corresponding electric power facility, and calculating a submerged risk value of the electric power facility according to the ponding submerged risk factor, the equipment type factor, the fault type factor and the hazard degree thereof;
the traditional risk value calculation formula is as follows:
R ＝ P ×S (12)
wherein: r is a risk value; p is the probability value of risk occurrence; s is a risk hazard value; however, the equipment types of the electric power facilities are different, the fault types are different, and the damage degree caused by the different fault types is different, so that the equipment types are correspondingly changed.
S31, calculating a ponding inundation risk factor F according to the ponding depth and a secondary inundation threshold value of the corresponding electric power facility d ；
Risk factor F for ponding inundation d The risk probability calculation formula of (2) is:
wherein D is the height of accumulated water and corresponds to D; sigma is a probability coefficient; a is a secondary flooding threshold and b is a primary flooding threshold.
S32, counting equipment types of the power equipment, and assigning equipment type factors F e (i)：
Since different device types have different flooding threshold criteria, the main types of power transmission and transformation devices obtained according to statistics are: power stations, substations, distribution rooms, transmission towers, etc., and correspondingly assign influence values to F e (i) I denotes the device type index i=1, 2, …, m.
S33, counting fault types corresponding to various equipment types, and assigning a fault type factor F ef (j)：
The device types correspond to various faults, and the fault types probably included according to statistics are as follows: 1) single component (line, main transformer) fault trip, 2) bus NI fault trip, 3) dual loop fault trip, 4) main transformer N-2 fault trip, 5) N2 bus fault trip. Corresponding assignment of the impact value fault type factor to F ef (j) J represents the fault type designation j=1, 2, …, n.
And S34, quantifying the damage degree of each equipment type in each fault type according to the voltage and the load of the power equipment node, and giving a corresponding risk damage value S (j), wherein j represents the fault type label j=1, 2, … and n.
The impact factor and hazard level assignments are shown in the following table,the equipment is endowed with F e The value, one device again contains several fault types, giving multiple F ef And (3) a value, wherein each fault occurs corresponding to one hazard degree, and a corresponding S value is given.
S35, calculating to obtain a submerged risk value of the electric power facility through an improved risk value calculation formula according to the ponding submerged risk factor, the equipment type factor, the fault type factor and the hazard degree thereof:
wherein F is e The device type factor, i, represents the device type index i=1, 2, …, m; fault type factor F corresponding to a certain device ef J represents the fault type designation j=1, 2, …, n; s represents a risk hazard value; f (F) d Representing the risk factor of ponding flooding.
The embodiment assumes that the node 5 is a box-type substation, and the corresponding two-stage flooding threshold is: primary b=0.5 meters and secondary a=0.3 meters. The coefficient σ=0.085 of the flooding risk probability, due to a<d=d=0.369.ltoreq.b, the ponding inundation factor F d The risk probability is calculated as:
the influence value of the equipment type factor is shown in the table, and if the node 5 is a box-type transformer substation, F is shown in the table e ＝0.8。
| F e | F e 1 | F e 2 | F e 3 | F e 4 |
| Type name | Power station | Substation transformer | Distribution room | Transmission tower |
| Impact value | 1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
The fault type factor is calculated, the node 5 is the fault type corresponding to the box-type substation, the influence value and the hazard degree S value are as shown in the following table II, wherein n is 5, and the risk value of the corresponding fault type factor is:
in combination with the above, the overall risk value is calculated as:
s4, judging the corresponding submerged risk level of the electric power facility according to the set three-level risk threshold value, and determining the corresponding early warning level;
comparing the electric power facility submerged risk value R obtained through calculation in the step S3 with set three-level risk thresholds (Rz 1, rz2 and Rz 3), and evaluating the submerged risk level and judging the early warning level, wherein the early warning level comprises the following steps:
| Rz1 | Rz2 | Rz3 | |
| risk range | Range 1 | Range 2 | Range 3 |
| Risk level | Three-level risk | Two-stage risk | First-level risk |
| Early warning level | III level early warning | II-level early warning | I-level early warning |
Among them are evident: primary risk > secondary risk > tertiary risk; class I early warning > class II early warning > class III early warning.
The three-level risk threshold and the judgment standard of the early warning level need to be set according to actual data and experience, and the setting of the example is shown in the following table.
| Rz1 | Rz2 | Rz3 | |
| Risk range | Less than 0.3 | 0.31-0.6 | Greater than 0.6 |
| Risk level | Three-level risk | Two-stage risk | First-level risk |
| Early warning level | III level early warning | II-level early warning | I-level early warning |
In this embodiment, if the risk value of the computing node 5 is r=0.328, it belongs to the risk range of Rz2, and the risk is determined to be a secondary risk, and a corresponding II-level early warning is required.
S5, carrying out early warning region circling and early warning grade marking on a visual GIS early warning map according to the coordinates and early warning grade of the electric power facilities;
further, the warning area is circled and the warning level is marked on the visual GIS warning map, specifically, the warning level is marked on the GIS map according to the coordinates of the submerged area of the electric power facilities, and then the positions, corresponding to the warning level, positioned on the GIS map by circles with different colors are correspondingly marked, and displayed to the manager through a large screen.
In this embodiment, three-level early warning is marked by three colors of red, orange and blue, respectively, and represents level I, level II and level III. In the example, the coordinates of the node 5 are (126.40425998, 45.72835019), the early warning grade is II, and III grade early warning marks are carried out on the GIS map at the time t+Δt of the example, and the marks are orange. Assuming that the early warning levels of 7 nodes on the power transmission line in the foregoing calculation example are as follows, different early warning levels are marked on the GIS map respectively, as shown in fig. 6, wherein the slash/representing risk value is very low and does not constitute early warning.
| Node 1 | Node 2 | Node 3 | Node 4 | Node 5 | Node 6 | Node 7 |
| / | Class III | Class III | Class I | Class II | Class III | / |
Finally, it should be noted that the above-mentioned method may be converted into software program instructions, which may be implemented by a system including a processor and a memory, or by computer instructions stored in a non-transitory computer readable storage medium. The integrated units implemented in the form of software functional units described above may be stored in a computer readable storage medium. The software functional unit is stored in a storage medium, and includes several instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) or a processor (processor) to perform part of the steps of the methods according to the embodiments of the present invention. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a U-disk, a removable hard disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a random access Memory (Random Access Memory, RAM), a magnetic disk, or an optical disk, or other various media capable of storing program codes.
In summary, the method and the system for dynamically evaluating and early warning the submerged risk of the electric power facility have the following beneficial effects:
(1) According to the invention, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model is utilized to dynamically simulate a storm inundation power facility, a ponding evolution process is calculated, various influencing factors are synthesized, the distribution and space-time variation of accurate reaction ponding are compared, on the basis of improving the accuracy of a simulation result in the storm inundation process and the accuracy of inundation risk assessment of the power facility, the characteristics of the space-time dynamic variation of the power facility risk are analyzed, and the rapidity and the accuracy of an intelligent algorithm are utilized to timely and accurately early warn the inundation risk of the power infrastructure, so that guiding suggestions are provided for disaster early warning and disaster prevention and disaster reduction decision making of the power system, so that management staff can timely and rapidly make precautions, the working efficiency is improved, the disaster loss is reduced, the occurrence of accidents is reduced, and the safe operation of the power system is effectively ensured;
(2) According to the invention, factors such as rainfall, topography, geology, a rainwater well and the like are comprehensively considered in the calculation of the ponding depth, so that the accuracy of calculation of the ponding depth is improved, and the accuracy of simulation results of the electric power facilities submerged by the storm is improved;
(3) According to the invention, the waterproof heights of different types of electric power facilities are considered, the severity of fault types is different, the risk probability is calculated according to the ponding depth and the submerged height threshold fitting exponential function, and different fault types of different equipment types of the electric power system are combined, and the ponding submerged risk factors, the equipment type factors and the fault type factors are considered to improve the traditional risk value calculation method, so that the risk value is more consistent with the real situation of a specific electric power facility, and the accuracy of the submerged risk assessment of the electric power facility is further improved;
(4) The invention sets the corresponding risk level range, provides three-level risk assessment and early warning levels, correspondingly sets the accurate mark position on the map according to the coordinates of the electric power facilities, sets the early warning color mark according to different risk levels, and clearly displays the map with the early warning mark by utilizing a large screen so as to more intuitively display the early warning position.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solution of the present invention, and are not limiting; although embodiments of the present invention have been described in connection with the accompanying drawings, various modifications and variations may be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, and such modifications and variations fall within the scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. The utility model provides a power facility inundation risk dynamic assessment and early warning method which is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, collecting meteorological data, geographic data and electric power facility data;
s2, carrying out gridding treatment on the electric power facility area, acquiring rainfall intensity of the corresponding area by utilizing electric power facility coordinates, and iteratively calculating the ponding depth of the cells of the electric power facility by utilizing a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model;
s3, calculating a ponding submerged risk factor according to the ponding depth and a secondary submerged threshold value of the corresponding electric power facility, and calculating a submerged risk value of the electric power facility according to the ponding submerged risk factor, the equipment type factor, the fault type factor and the hazard degree thereof;
s4, judging the corresponding submerged risk level of the electric power facility according to the set three-level risk threshold value, and determining the corresponding early warning level;
and S5, performing early warning marking on the visual GIS early warning map according to the coordinates and the early warning level of the electric power facilities.
2. The method for dynamically evaluating and pre-warning the flooding risk of a power facility according to claim 1, wherein in the step S1, the meteorological data includes: rainfall data; the geographic data includes: digital elevation of DEM, drainage facility data, building coverage rate, geological type and infiltration speed thereof; the electrical utility data includes: power utility coordinates, power utility type, power utility fault type, and severity data.
3. The method for dynamically evaluating and pre-warning the flooding risk of the electric power facility according to claim 2, wherein the step S2 comprises:
s21, carrying out gridding treatment on the electric power facility area, and carrying out dynamic flooding simulation by using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model;
s22, calculating the pressure of the accumulated water of each cell under the surrounding water and the ground friction;
s23, calculating the water flow speed V according to the law of conservation of momentum;
s24, calculating water flow in the adjacent grid flowing process within a time interval delta t according to the building coverage rate;
s25, calculating drainage in two aspects of a catch basin and underground water seepage;
s26, carrying out iterative computation to obtain the water accumulation depth of the unit cell z of the electric power facility at the time t+delta t:
d () represents the depth of water accumulation in relation to time t and q represents the net rainfall intensity.
4. A method for dynamically assessing and warning risk of flooding in an electrical installation according to claim 3, wherein said step S21 comprises:
grid processing is carried out on a region where the electric power facilities are located, each electric power facility node is located in one cell, and the darker places indicate lower terrain and are more prone to water accumulation;
assuming that the power facility node is z cells, 8 adjacent cells are arranged around the power facility node according to grid division, namely, the north upper N, the south lower S, the west left W, the east right E, the north west NW, the north east NE, the south west SW and the south east SE of the z cells, but the accumulated water of the z cells only flows in or out through the cells in the four directions N, S, W, E, and the flow direction is determined according to the elevation difference of the two cells.
5. The method for dynamically evaluating and pre-warning the flooding risk of a power facility according to claim 4, wherein the step S22 comprises:
setting the width and height of the unit cells as delta x and delta y respectively; the depth of the water accumulation is D, d=d (t) which is related to time;
the pressure of the surrounding water:
the ground friction force:
wherein, deltax, deltay are the width and height of the unit cell respectively; g is gravity acceleration;the water surface elevation is the ground height plus the water depth; k is the unit conversion factor; n is the Manning coefficient; v is the water flow rate.
6. The method for dynamically evaluating and pre-warning the flooding risk of a power facility according to claim 5, wherein the step S23 comprises:
assuming that the horizontal speed of the newly-lowered rainwater is accelerated from 0 to the water flow speed V of the accumulated water in the time interval delta t, the accumulated water flow equation is obtained by the law of conservation of momentum:
(f 1 +f 2 )Δt＝m(V-0)＝ρqΔxΔyΔtV
and (3) unfolding to obtain:
thus solving to obtain |V|, and omitting the negative root to obtain the water flow velocity V.
7. The method for dynamically evaluating and pre-warning the flooding risk of a power facility according to claim 6, wherein the step S24 comprises: in the time interval delta t, the water flow rate in the flowing process of the adjacent grids is as follows:
Q * ＝λV * DL * Δt
wherein,average value of theta of two cells in water taking flow direction, theta is calculated as the occupied area proportion of building in cell, Q * Represents the water flow of rainwater in the x-direction, which refers to the four directions Nz, sz, wz, ez, Q around cell z * Positive indicates rain inflow to the z cell, negative indicates outflow; v (V) * Indicating the water flow velocity of the stormwater in the x direction; l (L) * The flow width in the x direction is denoted, nz, sz is Δx, wz, ez is Δy.
8. The method for dynamically evaluating and pre-warning the flooding risk of a power facility according to claim 7, wherein the step S25 comprises: displacement P at time t:
P(t)＝P 1 (t)+P 2 (t)
P 2 (t)＝(1-θ)βΔxΔyV s t
wherein P is 1 (t) represents the drainage amount of the catch basin at the time t; c is the number of drainage wells in the unit cell; mu is the drainage coefficient, mu is [0,1 ]]；S p The wellhead area of the drainage well; p (P) 2 (t) represents the terrain water seepage quantity at the moment t; beta is the infiltration coefficient, theta is the building coverage in the unit cell.
9. The method for dynamically evaluating and pre-warning the flooding risk of a power facility according to claim 8, wherein the step S3 comprises:
s31, calculating a ponding inundation risk factor F according to the ponding depth and a secondary inundation threshold value of the corresponding electric power facility d ：
Wherein D is the height of the accumulated water and corresponds to the depth D of the accumulated water; sigma is a probability coefficient; a is a secondary flooding threshold value, b is a primary flooding threshold value;
s32, counting equipment types of the power equipment, and assigning equipment type factors F e (i) The device types include: a power station, a transformer substation, a distribution room and a transmission tower;
s33, counting fault types corresponding to various equipment types, and assigning a fault type factor F ef (j) The fault types include: single-component fault tripping, bus NI fault tripping, double-loop fault tripping, main transformer N-2 fault tripping, N2 bus fault tripping;
s34, quantifying the damage degree of each equipment type in each fault type according to the voltage and the load of the power equipment node, and giving a corresponding risk damage value S (j);
s35, calculating to obtain a submerged risk value of the electric power facility through an improved risk value calculation formula according to the ponding submerged risk factor, the equipment type factor, the fault type factor and the hazard degree thereof:
where i denotes the device type index i=1, 2, …, m; j denotes the fault type label j=1, 2, …, n.
10. A power facility inundation risk dynamic assessment and early warning system, comprising:
at least one processor; and at least one memory communicatively coupled to the processor, wherein:
the memory stores program instructions executable by the processor, the processor invoking the program instructions to perform the method of any of claims 1-9.
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| CN117571080A (en) * | 2024-01-15 | 2024-02-20 | 福建澳泰自动化设备有限公司 | Outdoor electricity utilization facility peripheral ponding early warning system based on ponding electric leakage detection terminal |
| CN117571080B (en) * | 2024-01-15 | 2024-03-29 | 福建澳泰自动化设备有限公司 | Outdoor electricity utilization facility peripheral ponding early warning system based on ponding electric leakage detection terminal |
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