CN111667150B - Power grid emergency operation management method, device, equipment and storage medium - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a power grid emergency operation management method, which comprises the following steps: constructing an electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index; establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language, and converting the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in a preset power emergency plan obtained in advance into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale; calculating the index weight of each electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model; calculating the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight and the evaluation value of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index; inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan; and carrying out emergency operation management on the power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan, so that the power emergency plan drilling can be accurately evaluated. The invention also discloses a power grid emergency operation management device, equipment and a storage medium.
Description
Technical Field
The present invention relates to the field of emergency management technologies for power grids, and in particular, to a method, an apparatus, a device, and a storage medium for emergency operation management for a power grid.
Background
In the conventional power emergency plan exercise evaluation, a scoring method of a percentile is generally adopted for different evaluation indexes, and different power emergency specialists may understand that the score segments under different evaluation scales are different, for example, some specialists consider that the corresponding scale of 80 is good, and some specialists consider that the corresponding scale is good, and this subjective cognition difference may bring a certain error to the evaluation result.
The common weight dividing method of the electric power emergency exercise evaluation index comprises an entropy weight method and an analytic hierarchy process. The entropy weight method has very strict requirements on the data of the drilling evaluation, if the evaluation indexes are all language evaluation scales, the uncertain evaluation scales exist, and the entropy weight method cannot accurately evaluate the drilling of the electric power emergency plan. The analytic hierarchy process requires an evaluation expert to score weights, and the cognition of different experts on the index importance ranking may be different, which leads to unavoidable differences in index weights. Inaccurate power emergency plan drilling evaluation results in that a power grid emergency operation structure cannot be reasonably allocated, so that potential operation risks exist in the power grid, and power grid emergency operation management efficiency is reduced.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention provides a power grid emergency operation management method, device, equipment and storage medium, which can accurately evaluate electric power emergency plan exercise, reasonably manage a power grid through a plan evaluation result and ensure that the power grid can safely, stably and efficiently operate under an emergency condition.
An embodiment of the invention provides a power grid emergency operation management method, which comprises the following steps:
constructing an electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index;
establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language, and converting the evaluation language of each expert in a preset power emergency plan, which is acquired in advance, to each index into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale;
calculating the index weight of each electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model;
calculating the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight and the evaluation value of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index;
inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan;
and carrying out emergency operation management on the power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset electric power emergency plan.
As an improvement of the above-mentioned scheme, the establishing the evaluation scale of the evaluation language specifically includes:
When the evaluation language is a deterministic evaluation language, the deterministic evaluation scale is determined by the following formula:
wherein, the evaluation index corresponding to the evaluation language is divided into tau evaluation scales S α And (5) the evaluation index is an evaluation scale corresponding to the evaluation index.
As an improvement of the above-described aspect, the establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language further includes:
when the evaluation language is an uncertainty evaluation language, the uncertainty evaluation scale is determined by the following formula, which is the following specific formula:
wherein ,
for the uncertainty evaluation scale, S β For the evaluation scale;
converting the uncertainty evaluation scale into a deterministic scale based on a preset mapping rule; the mapping rule is determined by the following formula, which is as follows:
wherein ,Sγ For a deterministic scale after conversion, f is the mapping function,
is a preset BUM function.
As an improvement of the above solution, the calculating, by using a preset dispersion weight model, an index weight of each of the electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation indexes specifically includes:
establishing an evaluation grade according to the evaluation scale;
calculating the evaluation grade frequency of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index at the evaluation grade;
Calculating a standard deviation of the rating frequency;
and calculating the index weight of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to the standard deviation.
As an improvement of the above solution, the calculating, by using a preset dispersion weight model, an index weight of each of the electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation indexes further includes:
the evaluation level is obtained according to formula (5):
wherein G= [ G ] 1 ,g 2 ,...,g τ ]For the rating scale g i An i-th evaluation level;
the rating frequency is obtained according to formula (6):
wherein ,fij For the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index y i At the rating level g j Is used for the evaluation of the rank frequency of (c),
for the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index y i At the rating level g j Expert evaluation value of (2);
obtaining the standard deviation of the rating frequency according to the formula (7):
wherein ,σi For the standard deviation, m is the number of elements of the evaluation scale set;
obtaining the index weight of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to the formula (8):
wherein ,ωi And weighting the index.
As an improvement of the above solution, the inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan specifically includes:
Setting the comprehensive evaluation value as a signal array, interpolating the signal array into upper and lower envelopes of the signal array by adopting a preset spline interpolation function model, calculating to obtain an average envelope array, and subtracting the average envelope array from the signal array to obtain a processed signal array;
repeating the above steps until the average envelope sequence approaches zero, obtaining a first IMF component, and removing the IMF component from the signal sequence;
and repeatedly executing the two steps until the last sequence in the signal sequence is not subdivided, and acquiring the residual component of the signal sequence as an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
Another embodiment of the present invention correspondingly provides a power grid emergency operation management device, including:
the evaluation index construction module is used for constructing an electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index;
the evaluation scale establishing module is used for establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language and converting the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in the preset power emergency plan obtained in advance into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale;
the index weight calculation module is used for calculating the index weight of each electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model;
The comprehensive evaluation value calculation module is used for calculating the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index and the evaluation value;
the evaluation result analysis module is used for inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan;
and the power grid emergency operation management module is used for carrying out emergency operation management on the power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
As an improvement of the above-described aspect, the evaluation result analysis module includes:
the signal array processing unit is used for setting the comprehensive evaluation value as a signal array, interpolating the signal array into upper and lower envelopes of the signal array by adopting a preset spline interpolation function model, calculating to obtain an average envelope array, and subtracting the average envelope array from the signal array to obtain a processed signal array;
an IMF component processing unit configured to repeatedly perform the above steps until the average envelope sequence approaches zero, to obtain a first IMF component, and remove the IMF component from the signal sequence;
and the evaluation result acquisition unit is used for repeatedly executing the two steps until the last sequence in the signal sequence is not subdivided, and acquiring the residual component of the signal sequence as the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
Another embodiment of the present invention provides a power grid emergency operation management device, including a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, where the processor executes the computer program to implement the power grid emergency operation management method according to the embodiment of the present invention.
Another embodiment of the present invention provides a storage medium, where the computer readable storage medium includes a stored computer program, and when the computer program runs, the device where the computer readable storage medium is controlled to execute the power grid emergency operation management method according to the embodiment of the present invention.
Compared with the prior art, the power grid emergency operation management method, device, equipment and storage medium disclosed by the embodiment of the invention have the following beneficial effects:
the method comprises the steps of constructing an electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation index, establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language, converting the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in a preset electric power emergency plan into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale, calculating the index weight of each electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation index by adopting a preset discrete weight model, calculating the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight and the evaluation value of the electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation index, inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain the evaluation result of the preset electric power emergency plan, carrying out emergency operation management on a power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset electric power emergency plan, realizing the accurate evaluation scale of an uncertainty evaluation index by establishing the evaluation scale of the evaluation language, realizing the extraction of a steady state evaluation component by adopting a discrete weight and an EMD method, eliminating subjective factors to the maximum extent, having objectivity and practicability, greatly improving the accuracy of electric power emergency plan evaluation, further reasonably managing the emergency operation of the electric power emergency plan according to the electric power emergency plan evaluation result, effectively guaranteeing the emergency operation safety and stability of the power grid under the condition of power grid operation.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a power grid emergency operation management method according to a first embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a diagram showing the comparison of the comprehensive evaluation values of the specialists in an embodiment according to the first embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a power grid emergency operation management device according to a second embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which it is apparent that the embodiments described are only some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
Referring to fig. 1, a flowchart of a power grid emergency operation management method according to an embodiment of the present invention is shown, where the method includes steps S101 to S106.
S101, constructing an electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index.
By way of example, the embodiment constructs the electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation index from four aspects of emergency capability, plan validity, exercise execution flow and script quality, and subdivides the electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation index into 18 emergency plan exercise evaluation indexes in total.
1. Emergency capability. In the aspect of power grid enterprise emergency capability assessment, a plurality of groups of drilling evaluation data in electric power anti-accident drilling are used as reference, and similarity processing is carried out on each index, and six indexes are respectively classified into safe production knowledge, safe operation reaction force, safe operation flow, safe attention, safe operation skill and safe production memory.
2. The validity of the plan. Economic resources consumed in the execution process of the plan and economic losses which are compensated after the execution of the plan are main aspects for evaluating the effectiveness of the plan, and the guarantee degree of materials in the execution process of the plan is also a standard for evaluating the effectiveness of the plan. Therefore, the exercise evaluation index for the effectiveness of the plan mainly includes the plan economy and the material assurance degree.
3. And (5) drilling an execution flow. And (3) constructing an emergency exercise execution flow evaluation index by inducing the execution efficiency characteristics in the exercise process, wherein the emergency exercise execution flow evaluation index comprises an exercise planning and design, exercise documentation, exercise guarantee, an early warning stage, a start response stage, a news release stage and a response end.
4. Script quality. The handling event of the electric power emergency exercise is characterized in that: the early stage is mainly treatment period of the power grid, the middle stage is mainly treatment period of the government, and the end stage is self-repairing period of the society. Meanwhile, in the electric power emergency drilling, event handling has certain resource constraint, and along with the transition of sudden electric power events, the proportion and the priority of resources occupied by each drilling department in an emergency resource pool are different. Finally, the information resource interaction is a key link of the electric power emergency exercise, and the information resource interaction among multiple departments in the emergency exercise is also one of exercise evaluation contents aiming at script quality. In summary, the exercise evaluation index for the quality of the exercise script includes the time characteristics of the exercise, the event handling mechanism and the information resource interaction.
S102, establishing an evaluation scale of the evaluation language, and converting the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in the preset power emergency plan obtained in advance into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale.
In a preferred embodiment, the establishing the rating scale of the rating language specifically includes:
when the evaluation language is a deterministic evaluation language, the deterministic evaluation scale is determined by the following formula:
wherein, the evaluation index corresponding to the evaluation language is divided into tau evaluation scales S α And (5) the evaluation index is an evaluation scale corresponding to the evaluation index. Alpha is S α Subscript of S α The evaluation scale is represented, but no definite number, the different evaluation scales are distinguished by α alone.
In this embodiment, an additive language evaluation scale with 0 as an initial value is set, and the evaluation scale of the evaluation index is set to have τ segments in common, and the evaluation scale set of the evaluation index is set by the formula (1). For example, if the evaluation indexes corresponding to the plan evaluation language are divided into five segments of "good", "medium", "poor" and "very poor", τ=5, and correspond to S respectively 4 ,S 2 ,S 1 ,S 0.4 ,S 0 Five deterministic evaluation scales.
It should be noted that the following rule is satisfied by the formula (1), specifically as follows:
α>β,S α >S β (9)
λS α ＝S λα (11)
Further, preferably, in the process of integrating the evaluation information of different evaluation indexes, in order to avoid the loss of decision information and enlarge the decision source of an evaluation expert, an expansion scale is defined on the basis:
{S q |q∈[0,α]} (12)
it can be seen that when S q ∈[S α ]At the time S q Belonging to the basic evaluation scale set, otherwise referred to as the extended scale.
Based on the above embodiments, in a preferred embodiment, the establishing the evaluation scale of the evaluation language specifically includes:
when the evaluation language is an uncertainty evaluation language, the uncertainty evaluation scale is determined by the following formula, which is the following specific formula:
wherein ,
for the uncertainty evaluation scale, S β For the evaluation scale.
In the present embodiment, S α ,S β Is that
Upper and lower limits of (1), e.g. give good to a certain evaluation index]When the uncertainty evaluation language between the two is represented as S 4 ,S 2 ]. By establishing the uncertain evaluation scale, the evaluation scale for accurately obtaining the uncertain evaluation index is realized.
Further, after establishing the evaluation scale of the uncertainty evaluation language, further comprising:
converting the uncertainty evaluation scale into a deterministic scale based on a preset mapping rule; the mapping rule is determined by the following formula, which is as follows:
γ＝f(α,β)
wherein ,Sγ For a deterministic scale after conversion, f is the mapping function,
is a preset BUM function.
In the electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation process, the evaluation results given by different experts are different, and meanwhile, the fact that the evaluation scales given by different experts are different due to certain complexity in actual exercise can possibly appear a phenomenon that a determined evaluation scale and an uncertain evaluation scale coexist is known, and at the moment, the mixing scale needs to be subjected to unification processing. Preferably, the function in equation (4)
Is a monotonic function of the basic unit interval, and meets the following rules, specifically as follows:
if x>y is then
S103, calculating the index weight of each power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model.
In a preferred embodiment, step S103 specifically includes:
establishing an evaluation grade according to the evaluation scale;
calculating the evaluation grade frequency of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index at the evaluation grade;
calculating a standard deviation of the rating frequency;
and calculating the index weight of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to the standard deviation.
The importance of the index is reflected by the dispersion degree of the index distribution, and the influence of the dispersion degree weight method on the evaluation result is greater as the evaluation scale distribution of a certain index is dispersed, that is, the influence of different experts on the evaluation scale given by a certain index is greater as the evaluation scale given by a certain index is dispersed, so that the weight is greater. By adopting the dispersion weight method, the problem that unavoidable differences occur in index weights due to the fact that cognition of different experts on index importance ranking is possibly different can be effectively solved, subjective factor influence is avoided, and accuracy of plan evaluation is greatly improved.
Further, step S103 further includes:
the evaluation level is obtained according to formula (5):
wherein G= [ G ] 1 ,g 2 ,...,g τ ]For the rating scale g i An i-th evaluation level;
the rating frequency is obtained according to formula (6):
wherein ,fij For the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index y i At the rating level g j Is used for the evaluation of the rank frequency of (c),
for the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index y i At the rating level g j Expert evaluation value of (2);
obtaining the standard deviation of the rating frequency according to the formula (7):
wherein ,σi For the standard deviation, m is the number of elements of the evaluation scale set;
obtaining the index weight of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to the formula (8):
wherein ,ωi And weighting the index.
And S104, calculating the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight and the evaluation value of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index.
Preferably, step S104 specifically includes:
obtaining the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the formula (16):
wherein ,Sk Is the comprehensive evaluation value of the kth expert, S ki And (5) performing exercise on the evaluation index of the ith power emergency plan for the kth expert.
S105, inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
Preferably, in the plan exercise evaluation, the comprehensive evaluation values of all the experts can be obtained by adopting a weighted sum mode, and in order to obtain the final plan exercise evaluation result, the comprehensive evaluation values of all the experts are integrated. After subjective evaluation influence factors in the expert comprehensive evaluation values are removed, the comprehensive evaluation values of all the experts tend to be the same, namely the comprehensive evaluation values of all the experts comprise a steady evaluation component which does not change along with the subjective factors. Therefore, the invention extracts the steady state evaluation component by using the EMD method, as the final drilling evaluation result, eliminates the influence of subjective factors to the maximum extent, has objectivity and practicability, and greatly improves the accuracy of the drilling evaluation of the electric power emergency plan.
Specifically, step S105 includes:
setting the comprehensive evaluation value as a signal array, interpolating the signal array into upper and lower envelopes of the signal array by adopting a preset spline interpolation function model, calculating to obtain an average envelope array, and subtracting the average envelope array from the signal array to obtain a processed signal array;
Repeating the above steps until the average envelope sequence approaches zero, obtaining a first IMF component, and removing the IMF component from the signal sequence;
and repeatedly executing the two steps until the last sequence in the signal sequence is not subdivided, and acquiring the residual component of the signal sequence as an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
More specifically, step 1, the comprehensive evaluation values of all experts are set as a signal array X (t), and are interpolated into upper and lower envelopes of the original array by a spline interpolation function and calculated to obtain an average envelope array m 1 (t) subtracting the average envelope curve from the original sequence to obtain a new signal sequence h 1 (t) specifically as follows:
h 1 (t)＝X(t)-m 1 (t) (17)；
r 1 (t)＝X(t)-c 1 (t) (18)；
and 3, repeating the step 1 and the step 2 for a plurality of times until the last sequence is not subdivided, wherein the residual sequence R (t) is expressed as an objective component in the expert comprehensive evaluation value, and specifically comprises the following steps:
and 4, obtaining the average value of the residual number row R (t), namely, representing the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
S106, emergency operation management is conducted on the power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset electric power emergency plan.
It can be understood that the power grid emergency management, such as emergency repair troubleshooting, coordination recovery of power transmission equipment, a transformer substation, a power plant and the like, power grid operation risk monitoring and early warning and the like, is reasonably performed by combining the evaluation result of the electric power emergency plan exercise. By combining factors such as plan drilling evaluation results, the operation efficiency of the power grid under emergency conditions is greatly improved, and meanwhile, the possibility of daily operation faults of the power grid is reduced, so that the safe and stable operation of the power grid is ensured.
According to the power grid emergency operation management method provided by the embodiment of the invention, the electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation index is constructed, the evaluation scale of the evaluation language is established, the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in the preset electric power emergency plan is converted into the evaluation value according to the evaluation scale, the index weight of each electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation index is calculated by adopting the preset dispersion weight model, the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert is calculated according to the index weight and the evaluation value of the electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation index, the comprehensive evaluation value is input into the preset EMD decomposition model, the evaluation result of the preset electric power emergency plan is obtained, the power grid is subjected to emergency operation management according to the evaluation result of the preset electric power emergency plan, the evaluation scale of the uncertainty evaluation index is accurately obtained by establishing the evaluation scale of the evaluation language, the steady state evaluation component is extracted by adopting the dispersion weight and the EMD method, the influence of subjective factors is eliminated to the maximum extent, the objectivity and the practicability are greatly improved, the emergency operation efficiency of the electric power emergency plan is further ensured under the condition that the electric power grid is reasonably and safely and stably operated under the condition of the emergency operation of the power grid is ensured.
Based on the first embodiment, in an embodiment, the power grid emergency operation management method is applied to an actual power grid. And (3) selecting a certain electric power emergency plan exercise to verify the electric power grid emergency operation management method, wherein 8 experts in the exercise evaluation are used for evaluation, the expert numbers are recorded as 1-8, and the evaluation results given by each expert are shown in the following table 1, and 5 deterministic evaluation scales of 'good', 'medium', 'poor', and 4 uncertainty evaluation scales of 'good, good', 'good, medium', 'medium, poor'.
TABLE 1
Further, from the equation (1) and the equation (2), it can be seen that τ=5, and 5 deterministic evaluation scales of "good", "medium", "poor", "very poor" correspond to S, respectively 4 ,S 2 ,S 1 ,S 0.4 ,S 0 Good (good)](good and medium)]Intermediate and poor][ poor, very poor ]]The 4 uncertainty evaluation scales correspond to [ S ] 4 ,S 2 ],[S 2 ,S 1 ],[S 1 ,S 0.4 ],[S 0.4 ,S 0 ]。
Furthermore, the uncertainty evaluation scale is converted into a deterministic evaluation scale according to the formula (3) and the formula (4), and the BUM function is set as
Then [ good](good and medium)]Intermediate and poor][ poor, very poor ]]The 4 uncertainty evaluation scales respectively correspond to S 3 ,S 1.5 ,S 0.7 ,S 0.2 。
The index weights of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation indexes are obtained according to the formulas (5) - (8):
ω＝[0.0552,0.0552,0.0561,0.0569,0.0543,
0.0552,0.0561,0.0534,0.0561,0.0552,
0.0561,0.0561,0.0565,0.0552,0.0543,
0.0561,0.0565,0.0552]。
Further, the comprehensive evaluation value of the expert was obtained from the formula (16), as shown in the following table 2.
TABLE 2
Further, the language evaluation information of each expert was decomposed by using the EMD decomposition method to obtain a residual component and an IMF component as shown in table 3 below.
TABLE 3 Table 3
It can be seen from table 3 that the residual components vary very slowly, which represents objective components in the expert's comprehensive evaluation value, which represents objective evaluation results of the power emergency plan exercise, and various components are shown in fig. 2. As can be seen from fig. 2, the obtained objective evaluation values tend to a straight line representing the objective evaluation results implicit in the evaluation values of the respective experts after ignoring the IMF components in the comprehensive evaluation values of the respective experts. Taking the average value of objective evaluation values of all the experts as the final evaluation result of the electric power emergency plan exercise, wherein the evaluation result is S 2.2979 I.e., between "good" and "good," slightly favors "good".
Referring to fig. 3, a schematic structural diagram of a power grid emergency operation management device according to a second embodiment of the present invention includes:
the evaluation index construction module 201 is used for constructing an electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation index;
the evaluation scale establishing module 202 is configured to establish an evaluation scale of an evaluation language, and convert the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in the preset power emergency plan obtained in advance into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale;
The index weight calculation module 203 is configured to calculate an index weight of each of the power emergency plan exercise evaluation indexes by using a preset dispersion weight model;
the comprehensive evaluation value calculation module 204 is configured to calculate a comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index and the evaluation value;
the evaluation result analysis module 205 is configured to input the comprehensive evaluation value to a preset EMD decomposition model, and obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan;
and the power grid emergency operation management module 206 is used for carrying out emergency operation management on the power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
Preferably, the evaluation scale creation module 202 includes:
a deterministic evaluation scale establishing unit for determining, when the evaluation language is a deterministic evaluation language, a deterministic evaluation scale by the following formula:
wherein, the evaluation index corresponding to the evaluation language is divided into tau evaluation scales S α And (5) the evaluation index is an evaluation scale corresponding to the evaluation index.
Preferably, the evaluation scale creation module 202 includes:
an uncertainty evaluation scale establishing unit, configured to determine, when the evaluation language is an uncertainty evaluation language, an uncertainty evaluation scale by the following formula, wherein the specific formula is as follows:
wherein ,
for the uncertainty evaluation scale, S β For the evaluation scale;
an evaluation scale conversion unit for converting the uncertainty evaluation scale into a deterministic scale based on a preset mapping rule; the mapping rule is determined by the following formula, which is as follows:
γ＝f(α,β)
wherein ,Sγ For a deterministic scale after conversion, f is the mapping function,
is a preset BUM function.
Preferably, the index weight calculation module 203 includes:
the evaluation grade establishing unit is used for establishing an evaluation grade according to the evaluation standard;
the evaluation grade frequency calculation unit is used for calculating the evaluation grade frequency of the electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation index at the evaluation grade;
a standard deviation calculation unit of the evaluation grade frequency, which is used for calculating the standard deviation of the evaluation grade frequency;
and the index weight calculation unit is used for calculating the index weight of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to the standard deviation.
Preferably, the index weight calculation module 203 includes:
an evaluation level acquisition unit configured to obtain the evaluation level according to formula (5):
wherein G= [ G ] 1 ,g 2 ,...,g τ ]For the rating scale g i An i-th evaluation level;
An evaluation rank frequency acquisition unit configured to obtain the evaluation rank frequency according to formula (6):
wherein ,fij For the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index y i At the rating level g j Is used for the evaluation of the rank frequency of (c),
for the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index y i At the rating level g j Expert evaluation value of (2);
a standard deviation obtaining unit configured to obtain a standard deviation of the evaluation level frequency according to formula (7):
wherein ,σi For the standard deviation, m is the number of elements of the evaluation scale set;
the weight acquisition unit is used for obtaining the index weight of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to the formula (8):
wherein ,ωi And weighting the index.
Preferably, the evaluation result analysis module 205 includes:
the signal array processing unit is used for setting the comprehensive evaluation value as a signal array, interpolating the signal array into upper and lower envelopes of the signal array by adopting a preset spline interpolation function model, calculating to obtain an average envelope array, and subtracting the average envelope array from the signal array to obtain a processed signal array;
an IMF component processing unit configured to repeatedly perform the above steps until the average envelope sequence approaches zero, to obtain a first IMF component, and remove the IMF component from the signal sequence;
And the evaluation result acquisition unit is used for repeatedly executing the two steps until the last sequence in the signal sequence is not subdivided, and acquiring the residual component of the signal sequence as the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
According to the power grid emergency operation management device provided by the embodiment of the invention, the electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation index is constructed, the evaluation scale of the evaluation language is established, the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in the preset electric power emergency plan is converted into the evaluation value according to the evaluation scale, the index weight of each electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation index is calculated by adopting the preset dispersion weight model, the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert is calculated according to the index weight and the evaluation value of the electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation index, the comprehensive evaluation value is input into the preset EMD decomposition model, the evaluation result of the preset electric power emergency plan is obtained, the power grid is subjected to emergency operation management according to the evaluation result of the preset electric power emergency plan, the evaluation scale of the uncertainty evaluation index is accurately obtained by establishing the evaluation scale of the evaluation language, the steady state evaluation component is extracted by adopting the dispersion weight and the EMD method, the influence of subjective factors is eliminated to the maximum extent, the objectivity and the practicability are greatly improved, the emergency operation efficiency of the electric power emergency plan is further ensured under the condition that the electric power grid is reasonably and safely and stably operated under the condition of the emergency operation of the electric power grid is ensured.
The power grid emergency operation management apparatus of the third embodiment includes: a processor, a memory and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, such as a grid emergency operation management program. The steps in the embodiments of the emergency operation management method for each power grid are realized when the processor executes the computer program. Alternatively, the processor may implement the functions of the modules/units in the above-described device embodiments when executing the computer program.
The computer program may be divided into one or more modules/units, which are stored in the memory and executed by the processor to accomplish the present invention, for example. The one or more modules/units may be a series of computer program instruction segments capable of performing specific functions for describing the execution of the computer program in the grid emergency operation management device.
The power grid emergency operation management device can be a computing device such as a desktop computer, a notebook computer, a palm computer and a cloud server. The grid emergency operation management device may include, but is not limited to, a processor, a memory. It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that the schematic diagram is merely an example of a grid emergency operation management device and is not limiting of the grid emergency operation management device, and may include more or fewer components than illustrated, or may combine certain components, or different components, e.g., the grid emergency operation management device may further include an input-output device, a network access device, a bus, etc.
The processor may be a central processing unit (Central Processing Unit, CPU), other general purpose processors, digital signal processors (Digital Signal Processor, DSP), application specific integrated circuits (Application Specific Integrated Circuit, ASIC), off-the-shelf programmable gate arrays (Field-Programmable Gate Array, FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, or the like. The general purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like, which is a control center of the grid emergency operation management apparatus, and connects the various parts of the entire grid emergency operation management apparatus using various interfaces and lines.
The memory may be used to store the computer program and/or module, and the processor may implement various functions of the grid emergency operation management device by running or executing the computer program and/or module stored in the memory and invoking data stored in the memory. The memory may mainly include a storage program area and a storage data area, wherein the storage program area may store an operating system, an application program (such as a sound playing function, an image playing function, etc.) required for at least one function, and the like; the storage data area may store data (such as audio data, phonebook, etc.) created according to the use of the handset, etc. In addition, the memory may include high-speed random access memory, and may also include non-volatile memory, such as a hard disk, memory, plug-in hard disk, smart Media Card (SMC), secure Digital (SD) Card, flash Card (Flash Card), at least one disk storage device, flash memory device, or other volatile solid-state storage device.
Wherein the integrated modules/units of the grid emergency operation management device may be stored in a computer readable storage medium if implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as a stand alone product. Based on such understanding, the present invention may implement all or part of the flow of the method of the above embodiment, or may be implemented by a computer program to instruct related hardware, where the computer program may be stored in a computer readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the computer program may implement the steps of each of the method embodiments described above. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code which may be in source code form, object code form, executable file or some intermediate form etc. The computer readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, a recording medium, a U disk, a removable hard disk, a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a computer Memory, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a random access Memory (RAM, random Access Memory), an electrical carrier signal, a telecommunications signal, a software distribution medium, and so forth. It should be noted that the computer readable medium contains content that can be appropriately scaled according to the requirements of jurisdictions in which such content is subject to legislation and patent practice, such as in certain jurisdictions in which such content is subject to legislation and patent practice, the computer readable medium does not include electrical carrier signals and telecommunication signals.
It should be noted that the above-described apparatus embodiments are merely illustrative, and the units described as separate units may or may not be physically separate, and units shown as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed over a plurality of network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment. In addition, in the drawings of the embodiment of the device provided by the invention, the connection relation between the modules represents that the modules have communication connection, and can be specifically implemented as one or more communication buses or signal lines. Those of ordinary skill in the art will understand and implement the present invention without undue burden.
While the foregoing is directed to the preferred embodiments of the present invention, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that changes and modifications may be made without departing from the principles of the invention, such changes and modifications are also intended to be within the scope of the invention.
Claims (6)
1. A power grid emergency operation management method, characterized by comprising:
Constructing an electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index;
establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language, and converting the evaluation language of each expert in a preset power emergency plan, which is acquired in advance, to each index into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale;
calculating the index weight of each electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model;
calculating the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight and the evaluation value of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index;
inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan;
performing emergency operation management on the power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan;
the method for establishing the evaluation scale of the evaluation language specifically comprises the following steps:
when the evaluation language is a deterministic evaluation language, the deterministic evaluation scale is determined by the following formula:
wherein, the evaluation index corresponding to the evaluation language is divided into tau evaluation scales S α For the evaluation scale corresponding to the evaluation index, S α Distinguishing between different evaluation scales by α;
wherein, the establishing the evaluation scale of the evaluation language further comprises:
When the evaluation language is an uncertainty evaluation language, the uncertainty evaluation scale is determined by the following formula, which is the following specific formula:
wherein ,
for the uncertainty evaluation scale, S β For the evaluation scale;
converting the uncertainty evaluation scale into a deterministic evaluation scale based on a preset mapping rule; the mapping rule is determined by the following formula, which is as follows:
γ＝f(α,β)
wherein ,Sγ For the transformed deterministic evaluation scale, f is the mapping function,
is a preset BUM function;
the calculating the index weight of each power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model specifically comprises the following steps:
establishing an evaluation grade G, G= [ G ] according to the evaluation scale 1 ,g 2 ,...,g τ ]，g j A j-th evaluation level;
calculating the evaluation grade frequency of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index at the evaluation grade;
calculating a standard deviation of the rating frequency;
calculating the index weight of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to the standard deviation;
the method for calculating the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting the preset dispersion weight model further comprises the following steps:
The rating frequency is obtained according to formula (6):
wherein ,fij For the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index y i At the rating level g j Is used for the evaluation of the rank frequency of (c),
for the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index y i At the rating level g j Expert evaluation value of (2);
obtaining the standard deviation of the rating frequency according to the formula (7):
wherein ,σi For the standard deviation, m is the number of elements of the evaluation scale set;
obtaining the index weight of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to the formula (8):
wherein ,ωi And weighting the index.
2. The power grid emergency operation management method according to claim 1, wherein the step of inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan specifically comprises:
setting the comprehensive evaluation value as a signal array, interpolating the signal array into upper and lower envelopes of the signal array by adopting a preset spline interpolation function model, calculating to obtain an average envelope array, and subtracting the average envelope array from the signal array to obtain a processed signal array;
repeating the above steps until the average envelope sequence approaches zero, obtaining a first IMF component, and removing the IMF component from the signal sequence;
And repeatedly executing the two steps until the last sequence in the signal sequence is not subdivided, and acquiring the residual component of the signal sequence as an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
3. An electric network emergency operation management device, characterized by comprising:
the evaluation index construction module is used for constructing an electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index;
the evaluation scale establishing module is used for establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language and converting the evaluation language of each expert on each index in a preset power emergency plan obtained in advance into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale;
the index weight calculation module is used for calculating the index weight of each electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model;
the comprehensive evaluation value calculation module is used for calculating the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index and the evaluation value;
the evaluation result analysis module is used for inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan;
the power grid emergency operation management module is used for carrying out emergency operation management on the power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan;
The method for establishing the evaluation scale of the evaluation language specifically comprises the following steps:
when the evaluation language is a deterministic evaluation language, the deterministic evaluation scale is determined by the following formula:
wherein, the evaluation index corresponding to the evaluation language is divided into tau evaluation scales S α For the evaluation scale corresponding to the evaluation index, S α Distinguishing between different evaluation scales by α;
wherein, the establishing the evaluation scale of the evaluation language further comprises:
when the evaluation language is an uncertainty evaluation language, the uncertainty evaluation scale is determined by the following formula, which is the following specific formula:
wherein ,
for the uncertainty evaluation scale, S β For the evaluation scale;
converting the uncertainty evaluation scale into a deterministic evaluation scale based on a preset mapping rule; the mapping rule is determined by the following formula, which is as follows:
γ＝f(α,β)
wherein ,Sγ For the transformed deterministic evaluation scale, f is the mapping function,
is a preset BUM function;
the calculating the index weight of each power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model specifically comprises the following steps:
establishing an evaluation grade G, G= [ G ] according to the evaluation scale 1 ,g 2 ,...,g τ ]，g j A j-th evaluation level;
calculating the evaluation grade frequency of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index at the evaluation grade;
calculating a standard deviation of the rating frequency;
calculating the index weight of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to the standard deviation;
the method for calculating the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting the preset dispersion weight model further comprises the following steps:
the rating frequency is obtained according to formula (6):
wherein ,fij For the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index y i At the rating level g j Is used for the evaluation of the rank frequency of (c),
for the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index y i At the rating level g j Expert evaluation value of (2);
obtaining the standard deviation of the rating frequency according to the formula (7):
wherein ,σi For the standard deviation, m is the number of elements of the evaluation scale set;
obtaining the index weight of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to the formula (8):
wherein ,ωi And weighting the index.
4. The grid emergency operation management apparatus according to claim 3, wherein the evaluation result analysis module includes:
the signal array processing unit is used for setting the comprehensive evaluation value as a signal array, interpolating the signal array into upper and lower envelopes of the signal array by adopting a preset spline interpolation function model, calculating to obtain an average envelope array, and subtracting the average envelope array from the signal array to obtain a processed signal array;
An IMF component processing unit configured to repeatedly perform the above steps until the average envelope sequence approaches zero, to obtain a first IMF component, and remove the IMF component from the signal sequence;
and the evaluation result acquisition unit is used for repeatedly executing the two steps until the last sequence in the signal sequence is not subdivided, and acquiring the residual component of the signal sequence as the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
5. A power grid emergency operation management device comprising a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, the processor implementing the power grid emergency operation management method of any one of claims 1 to 2 when the computer program is executed.
6. A computer readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer readable storage medium comprises a stored computer program, wherein the computer program, when run, controls a device in which the computer readable storage medium is located to perform the grid emergency operation management method according to any one of claims 1 to 2.
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