CN111667150A - Power grid emergency operation management method, device, equipment and storage medium - Google Patents

Power grid emergency operation management method, device, equipment and storage medium Download PDF

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CN111667150A
CN111667150A CN202010411309.5A CN202010411309A CN111667150A CN 111667150 A CN111667150 A CN 111667150A CN 202010411309 A CN202010411309 A CN 202010411309A CN 111667150 A CN111667150 A CN 111667150A
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黎振宇
陈晓国
龚建平
宋永超
余志纬
孟晓波
朱永兴
张志强
张海鹏
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China Southern Power Grid Co Ltd
Research Institute of Southern Power Grid Co Ltd
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Research Institute of Southern Power Grid Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid emergency operation management method, which comprises the following steps: constructing an electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index; establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language, and converting the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in a preset power emergency plan acquired in advance into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale; calculating the index weight of each power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model; calculating a comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index and the evaluation value; inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan; and carrying out emergency operation management on the power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan, so that the power emergency plan can be accurately evaluated. The invention also discloses a power grid emergency operation management device, equipment and a storage medium.

Description

Power grid emergency operation management method, device, equipment and storage medium
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power grid emergency management, in particular to a power grid emergency operation management method, device, equipment and storage medium.
Background
In the traditional power emergency plan exercise evaluation, a percentile scoring method is generally adopted for different evaluation indexes, and different power emergency experts may have different understandings of score segments under different evaluation scales, for example, some experts consider that 80 is the best corresponding scale, while some experts consider that the corresponding scale is good, and the subjective cognitive difference may bring certain errors to evaluation results.
Common weight division methods for the evaluation indexes of the power emergency drilling include an entropy weight method and an analytic hierarchy process. The entropy weight method has very strict requirements on drilling evaluation data, if the evaluation indexes are all language evaluation scales, an uncertain evaluation scale exists, and the entropy weight method cannot accurately evaluate the power emergency plan drilling. The analytic hierarchy process needs evaluation experts to perform weight scoring, and different experts may have different cognition on index importance ranking, so that the index weight has inevitable difference. The power grid emergency operation structure cannot be reasonably allocated due to inaccurate power emergency plan drilling evaluation, so that potential operation risks exist in the power grid, and the power grid emergency operation management efficiency is reduced.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention provides a power grid emergency operation management method, a device, equipment and a storage medium, which can realize accurate evaluation on power emergency plan drilling, reasonably manage a power grid according to a plan evaluation result and ensure that the power grid can safely, stably and efficiently operate under an emergency condition.
An embodiment of the present invention provides a power grid emergency operation management method, including:
constructing an electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index;
establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language, and converting the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in a preset power emergency plan acquired in advance into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale;
calculating the index weight of each power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model;
calculating a comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index and the evaluation value;
inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan;
and carrying out emergency operation management on the power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
As an improvement of the above scheme, the establishing of the evaluation scale of the evaluation language specifically includes:
when the evaluation language is a deterministic evaluation language, the deterministic evaluation scale is determined by the following formula, specifically the following formula:
Figure BDA0002493353540000021
wherein the evaluation index corresponding to the evaluation language is divided into tau evaluation scales, SαAnd the evaluation scale is corresponding to the evaluation index.
As an improvement of the above, the establishing of the evaluation scale of the evaluation language further includes:
when the evaluation language is an uncertainty evaluation language, an uncertainty evaluation scale is determined by the following formula:
Figure BDA0002493353540000022
wherein ,
Figure BDA0002493353540000023
for the uncertainty evaluation scale, SβIs the evaluation scale;
converting the uncertainty evaluation scale into a certainty scale based on a preset mapping rule; the mapping rule is determined by the following formula, and the specific formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002493353540000031
γ＝f(α,β)
Figure BDA0002493353540000032
wherein ,SγFor the transformed deterministic scale, f is the mapping function,
Figure BDA0002493353540000033
is a preset BUM function.
As an improvement of the above scheme, the calculating of the index weight of each power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by using a preset dispersion weight model specifically includes:
establishing an evaluation grade according to the evaluation scale;
calculating the evaluation grade frequency of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index at the evaluation grade;
calculating a standard deviation of the evaluation grade frequency;
and calculating the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to the standard deviation.
As an improvement of the above scheme, the calculating of the index weight of each power emergency plan drill evaluation index by using a preset dispersion weight model further includes:
obtaining the evaluation grade according to the formula (5):
Figure BDA0002493353540000034
wherein G ═ G1,g2,...,gτ]As the evaluation scale, giThe ith evaluation grade;
obtaining the evaluation grade frequency according to formula (6):
Figure BDA0002493353540000035
wherein ,fijEvaluating index y for the power emergency plan exerciseiAt the evaluation level gjThe frequency of the evaluation level of (a),
Figure BDA0002493353540000041
evaluating index y for the power emergency plan exerciseiAt the evaluation level gjThe expert evaluation value of (1);
obtaining the standard deviation of the evaluation grade frequency according to the formula (7):
Figure BDA0002493353540000042
wherein ,σiM is the number of elements in the evaluation scale set;
obtaining the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to a formula (8):
Figure BDA0002493353540000043
wherein ,ωiIs the index weight.
As an improvement of the above scheme, the inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan specifically includes:
setting the comprehensive evaluation value as a signal number sequence, interpolating the signal number sequence into upper and lower envelope lines of the signal number sequence by adopting a preset spline interpolation function model, calculating to obtain an average envelope line number sequence, and subtracting the average envelope line number sequence from the signal number sequence to obtain a processed signal number sequence;
repeatedly executing the steps until the average envelope line number sequence approaches zero to obtain a first IMF component, and removing the IMF component from the signal number sequence;
and repeatedly executing the two steps until the last sequence in the signal sequence is irrevocable, and acquiring the residual component of the signal sequence as the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
Another embodiment of the present invention correspondingly provides a power grid emergency operation management device, including:
the evaluation index construction module is used for constructing an electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index;
the evaluation scale establishing module is used for establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language and converting the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in a preset power emergency plan acquired in advance into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale;
the index weight calculation module is used for calculating the index weight of each power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model;
the comprehensive evaluation value calculation module is used for calculating the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index and the evaluation value;
the evaluation result analysis module is used for inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan;
and the power grid emergency operation management module is used for carrying out emergency operation management on the power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
As an improvement of the above, the evaluation result analysis module includes:
a signal number sequence processing unit, configured to set the comprehensive evaluation value as a signal number sequence, interpolate the signal number sequence into upper and lower envelope curves of the signal number sequence by using a preset spline interpolation function model, and calculate to obtain an average envelope curve number sequence, and subtract the average envelope curve number sequence from the signal number sequence to obtain a processed signal number sequence;
an IMF component processing unit, configured to repeatedly perform the above steps until the average envelope number sequence approaches zero, obtain a first IMF component, and remove the IMF component from the signal number sequence;
and the evaluation result acquisition unit is used for repeatedly executing the two steps until the last sequence in the signal sequence is irrevocable, and acquiring the residual component of the signal sequence as the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
Another embodiment of the present invention provides a grid emergency operation management device, which includes a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, and when the processor executes the computer program, the grid emergency operation management device implements the grid emergency operation management method according to the above embodiment of the present invention.
Another embodiment of the present invention provides a storage medium, where the computer-readable storage medium includes a stored computer program, where when the computer program runs, a device where the computer-readable storage medium is located is controlled to execute the method for managing emergency operation of a power grid according to the above-described embodiment of the present invention.
Compared with the prior art, the power grid emergency operation management method, the device, the equipment and the storage medium disclosed by the embodiment of the invention have the following beneficial effects:
the method comprises the steps of establishing an evaluation index of an electric power emergency plan, establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language, converting the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in a preset electric power emergency plan obtained in advance into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale, calculating the index weight of each electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model, calculating the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight of the electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index and the evaluation value, inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain the evaluation result of the preset electric power emergency plan, and performing emergency operation management on a power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset electric power emergency plan, so that the evaluation scale of the uncertainty evaluation index is accurately obtained by establishing the evaluation scale of the evaluation language, and the dispersion weight and EMD method are adopted, the method has the advantages that the steady-state evaluation component is extracted, the influence of subjective factors is eliminated to the greatest extent, objectivity and practicability are achieved, the accuracy of electric power emergency plan evaluation is greatly improved, the operation of the power grid is reasonably managed through the electric power emergency plan evaluation result, the emergency operation efficiency of the power grid can be effectively improved, and the safe and stable operation of the power grid under the emergency condition is guaranteed.
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Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a power grid emergency operation management method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a decomposition and comparison of a comprehensive evaluation value of experts according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a power grid emergency operation management device according to a second embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1, a schematic flow chart of a power grid emergency operation management method according to an embodiment of the present invention is shown, where the method includes steps S101 to S106.
S101, establishing an electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index.
For example, the embodiment constructs power emergency plan drilling evaluation indexes from four aspects of emergency capacity, plan validity, drilling execution flow and script quality, and the indexes are subdivided into 18 emergency plan drilling evaluation indexes.
1. Emergency capability. For the aspect of power grid enterprise emergency capacity evaluation, multiple groups of drilling evaluation data in electric power anti-accident drilling are used, similarity processing is carried out on all indexes, and the results are summarized into six indexes which are respectively safety production knowledge, safety operation responsiveness, safety operation flow, safety attention, safety operation skill and safety production memory.
2. The plan validity. The economic resources consumed in the execution process of the plan and the economic losses made up after the execution of the plan are the main aspects of evaluating the effectiveness of the plan, and meanwhile, the guarantee degree of materials in the execution process of the plan is also the standard for evaluating the effectiveness of the plan. Therefore, the exercise evaluation indexes for the effectiveness of the plan mainly include the economy of the plan and the degree of material guarantee.
3. And (5) performing a drilling execution process. The emergency drilling execution flow evaluation indexes are constructed by inducing the execution efficiency characteristics in the drilling process, namely drilling planning and design, drilling documentation, drilling guarantee, early warning stage, response starting stage, news release stage and response ending.
4. Script quality. The handling event characteristics of the power emergency drilling are as follows: the early stage is a main treatment period of the power grid, the middle stage is a main treatment period of the government, and the final stage is a social self-repairing period. Meanwhile, event handling in the power emergency drilling has certain resource constraint, and along with the transition of the emergency power event, the proportion and the priority of resources occupied by each drilling department in the emergency resource pool are different. Finally, information resource interaction is a key link of power emergency drilling, and information resource interaction among multiple departments in the emergency drilling is also one of drilling evaluation contents aiming at script quality. In summary, the drill evaluation indexes for the drill script quality include drill time characteristics, event handling mechanisms and information resource interaction.
S102, establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language, and converting the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in a preset power emergency plan acquired in advance into the evaluation value according to the evaluation scale.
In a preferred embodiment, the establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language specifically includes:
when the evaluation language is a deterministic evaluation language, the deterministic evaluation scale is determined by the following formula, specifically the following formula:
Figure BDA0002493353540000081
wherein the evaluation index corresponding to the evaluation language is divided into tau evaluation scales, SαAn evaluation scale corresponding to the evaluation index α is SαSubscript of (1), SαRepresenting the assessment scale but no definite numbers, only α is used to distinguish the different assessment scales.
In this embodiment, an additive language evaluation scale is set with 0 as an initial value, τ is set as the evaluation scale of the evaluation index, and the evaluation scale set of the evaluation index is represented by formula (1). For example, if the evaluation indexes corresponding to the plan evaluation language are divided into five segments of "good", "medium", "poor" and "very poor", τ is 5, and S is assigned to each segment4,S2,S1,S0.4,S0Five deterministic evaluation scales.
It should be noted that formula (1) satisfies the following rule, specifically as follows:
α>β,Sα>Sβ(9)
Figure BDA0002493353540000082
λSα＝Sλα(11)
further, preferably, in the process of integrating evaluation information of different evaluation indexes, in order to avoid the loss of decision information and the enlargement of decision sources of evaluation experts, the invention defines an extension scale on the basis:
{Sq|q∈[0,α]} (12)
it can be seen that when S is presentq∈[Sα]When S is presentqBelonging to the set of basic evaluation scales, otherwise called extended scales.
Based on the foregoing embodiment, in a preferred embodiment, the establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language specifically includes:
when the evaluation language is an uncertainty evaluation language, an uncertainty evaluation scale is determined by the following formula:
Figure BDA0002493353540000091
wherein ,
Figure BDA0002493353540000097
for the uncertainty evaluation scale, SβIs the evaluation scale.
In this embodiment, Sα,SβIs composed of
Figure BDA0002493353540000092
Upper and lower limits of (e.g. [ very good, good ] given to an evaluation index]When the uncertainty between the two is evaluated, it is expressed as [ S ]4,S2]. By establishing the uncertain evaluation scale, the evaluation scale of the uncertain evaluation index can be accurately obtained.
Further, after establishing the evaluation scale of the uncertainty evaluation language, the method further includes:
converting the uncertainty evaluation scale into a certainty scale based on a preset mapping rule; the mapping rule is determined by the following formula, and the specific formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002493353540000093
γ＝f(α,β)
Figure BDA0002493353540000094
wherein ,SγFor the transformed deterministic scale, f is the mapping function,
Figure BDA0002493353540000095
is a preset BUM function.
It should be noted that, in the power emergency plan drilling and evaluation process, the evaluation results given by different experts are different, and it is known from the foregoing that, due to certain complexity in the actual drilling, the evaluation scales given by different experts are also different, and a phenomenon that a fixed evaluation scale and an uncertain evaluation scale coexist may occur, and at this time, it is necessary to perform a matching process on the mixed scale. Preferably, the function in formula (4)
Figure BDA0002493353540000096
The monotone function is a monotone function of a basic unit interval, and meets the following rules, specifically as follows:
Figure BDA0002493353540000101
Figure BDA0002493353540000102
if x>y, then
Figure BDA0002493353540000103
S103, calculating index weight of each power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model.
In a preferred embodiment, step S103 specifically includes:
establishing an evaluation grade according to the evaluation scale;
calculating the evaluation grade frequency of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index at the evaluation grade;
calculating a standard deviation of the evaluation grade frequency;
and calculating the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to the standard deviation.
It should be noted that, the dispersion weighting method reflects the importance degree of the index through the dispersion degree of the index distribution, and the more dispersed the evaluation scale distribution of a certain index is, the greater the influence of the evaluation scale distribution on the evaluation result is, that is, when the evaluation scales given by different experts on a certain index are more dispersed, the greater the influence of the evaluation scale distribution on the evaluation result is, and thus the greater the weight of the evaluation result is. By adopting the dispersion weight method, the problem that the index weight has inevitable difference due to the fact that different experts possibly have different cognizances for index importance sequencing can be effectively solved, the influence of subjective factors is avoided, and the accuracy of plan evaluation is greatly improved.
Further, step S103 further includes:
obtaining the evaluation grade according to the formula (5):
Figure BDA0002493353540000104
wherein G ═ G1,g2,...,gτ]As the evaluation scale, giThe ith evaluation grade;
obtaining the evaluation grade frequency according to formula (6):
Figure BDA0002493353540000111
wherein ,fijEvaluating index y for the power emergency plan exerciseiAt the evaluation level gjThe frequency of the evaluation level of (a),
Figure BDA0002493353540000112
is said electricityForce emergency plan exercise evaluation index yiAt the evaluation level gjThe expert evaluation value of (1);
obtaining the standard deviation of the evaluation grade frequency according to the formula (7):
Figure BDA0002493353540000113
wherein ,σiM is the number of elements in the evaluation scale set;
obtaining the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to a formula (8):
Figure BDA0002493353540000114
wherein ,ωiIs the index weight.
And S104, calculating the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index and the evaluation value.
Preferably, step S104 specifically includes:
and (3) obtaining the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the formula (16):
Figure BDA0002493353540000115
wherein ,SkIs the comprehensive evaluation value of the kth expert, SkiAnd (4) carrying out evaluation value of the evaluation index for the ith power emergency plan by the kth expert.
And S105, inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
Preferably, in the plan drill evaluation, the overall evaluation value of each expert may be obtained by a weighted sum method, and in order to obtain the final plan drill evaluation result, the overall evaluation values of all experts need to be integrated. After processing, the expert comprehensive evaluation values float up and down around the final integrated evaluation value, so that after subjective evaluation influence factors in the expert comprehensive evaluation values are removed, the comprehensive evaluation values of all experts tend to be the same, namely, the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert contains a steady-state evaluation component which does not change along with the subjective factors. Therefore, the method utilizes the EMD method to extract the steady-state evaluation component as the final drilling evaluation result, eliminates the influence of subjective factors to the maximum extent, has objectivity and practicability, and greatly improves the accuracy of power emergency plan drilling evaluation.
Specifically, step S105 includes:
setting the comprehensive evaluation value as a signal number sequence, interpolating the signal number sequence into upper and lower envelope lines of the signal number sequence by adopting a preset spline interpolation function model, calculating to obtain an average envelope line number sequence, and subtracting the average envelope line number sequence from the signal number sequence to obtain a processed signal number sequence;
repeatedly executing the steps until the average envelope line number sequence approaches zero to obtain a first IMF component, and removing the IMF component from the signal number sequence;
and repeatedly executing the two steps until the last sequence in the signal sequence is irrevocable, and acquiring the residual component of the signal sequence as the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
More specifically, in step 1, the comprehensive evaluation value of all experts is set as a signal sequence x (t), and the signal sequence is interpolated into upper and lower envelope lines of an original sequence by a sample interpolation function to calculate an average envelope sequence m1(t) subtracting the average envelope from the original sequence to obtain a new signal sequence h1(t), specifically as follows:
h1(t)＝X(t)-m1(t) (17)；
step 2, repeating step 1 for multiple times until the average envelope approaches 0 to obtain a first IMF component c1(t) the IMF component represents the component with the largest subjective factor in the expert's comprehensive evaluation value, and a new sequence r is obtained by removing the component1(t), specifically as follows:
r1(t)＝X(t)-c1(t) (18)；
and 3, repeating the step 1 and the step 2 for multiple times until the last sequence is irrevocable, wherein the residual number sequence R (t) is represented as an objective component in the comprehensive evaluation value of the expert, and the specific steps are as follows:
Figure BDA0002493353540000131
and 4, solving the average value of the residual number sequence R (t), namely, the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan is represented.
And S106, performing emergency operation management on the power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
The method can be understood that the power grid emergency management is reasonably carried out by combining the evaluation result of the power emergency plan drilling, such as emergency repair troubleshooting, coordination recovery of power transmission equipment, transformer substations, power plants and the like, monitoring and early warning of power grid operation risks and the like. By combining factors such as a plan drilling evaluation result and the like, the operation efficiency of the power grid under an emergency condition is greatly improved, and the possibility of daily operation faults of the power grid is reduced, so that the power grid can be ensured to operate safely and stably.
The method for managing the emergency operation of the power grid, provided by the embodiment of the invention, comprises the steps of establishing an evaluation index of an electric power emergency plan drill, establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language, converting the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in a preset electric power emergency plan into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale, calculating the index weight of each electric power emergency plan drill evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model, calculating the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight of the electric power emergency plan drill evaluation index and the evaluation value, inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain the evaluation result of the preset electric power emergency plan, performing emergency operation management on the power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset electric power emergency plan, and thus establishing the evaluation scale of the evaluation language, the method has the advantages that the evaluation scale of uncertainty evaluation indexes is accurately obtained, the stable state evaluation component is extracted by adopting the dispersion weight and the EMD method, the influence of subjective factors is eliminated to the maximum extent, objectivity and practicability are realized, the accuracy of electric power emergency plan evaluation is greatly improved, the operation of the power grid is reasonably managed through the electric power emergency plan evaluation result, the emergency operation efficiency of the power grid can be effectively improved, and the safe and stable operation of the power grid under the emergency condition is guaranteed.
Based on the first embodiment, in an embodiment, the power grid emergency operation management method is applied to an actual power grid. A certain power emergency plan exercise is selected to verify the power grid emergency operation management method, 8 experts are evaluated in exercise evaluation, the numbers of the experts are recorded as 1-8, the evaluation results given by the experts are shown in the following table 1, 5 deterministic evaluation scales of ' good ', ' medium ', ' poor ' and 4 uncertain evaluation scales of ' good, good ', ' good, medium ', ' medium, poor ', ' poor and ' poor ' are given.
TABLE 1
Figure BDA0002493353540000141
Further, it is understood from the expressions (1) and (2) that 5 deterministic evaluation scales of "good", "medium", "bad", and "bad" correspond to S, respectively4,S2,S1,S0.4,S0[ very good, good]"good, moderate]"moderate and poor]"poor, very poor]The 4 uncertainty evaluation scales correspond to [ S ] respectively4,S2],[S2,S1],[S1,S0.4],[S0.4,S0]。
Then, the uncertainty evaluation scale is converted into the certainty evaluation scale according to the formula (3) and the formula (4), and the BUM function is set as
Figure BDA0002493353540000142
Then [ very good, good]"good, moderate]"moderate and poor]"poor, very poor]The 4 uncertainty evaluation scales respectively correspond to S3,S1.5,S0.7,S0.2。
And (3) obtaining the index weight of each power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to the formulas (5) to (8) as follows:
ω＝[0.0552,0.0552,0.0561,0.0569,0.0543,
0.0552,0.0561,0.0534,0.0561,0.0552,
0.0561,0.0561,0.0565,0.0552,0.0543,
0.0561,0.0565,0.0552]。
further, the comprehensive evaluation value of the expert was obtained from the formula (16), as shown in table 2 below.
TABLE 2
Figure BDA0002493353540000151
Further, the language evaluation information of each expert was decomposed by the EMD decomposition method to obtain a residual component and an IMF component, as shown in table 3 below.
TABLE 3
Figure BDA0002493353540000152
As can be seen from table 3, the residual component, which represents the objective component of the expert's comprehensive evaluation value representing the objective evaluation result of the power emergency plan exercise, changes very slowly, and the various components are shown in fig. 2. As can be seen from fig. 2, after the IMF component in the total score of each expert is ignored, the obtained objective evaluation value tends to be a straight line representing the objective evaluation result implied in the evaluation value of each expert. Taking the mean value of objective evaluation values of each expert as the evaluation result of the final power emergency plan exercise, wherein the evaluation result is S2.2979I.e., between "good" and "good", slightly biased toward "good".
Referring to fig. 3, a schematic structural diagram of a power grid emergency operation management device provided in the second embodiment of the present invention includes:
an evaluation index construction module 201, configured to construct an evaluation index for power emergency plan drilling;
the evaluation scale establishing module 202 is configured to establish an evaluation scale of an evaluation language, and convert the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in a preset power emergency plan, which is obtained in advance, into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale;
the index weight calculation module 203 is configured to calculate an index weight of each power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by using a preset dispersion weight model;
a comprehensive evaluation value calculation module 204, configured to calculate a comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index and the evaluation value;
the evaluation result analysis module 205 is configured to input the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan;
and the power grid emergency operation management module 206 is configured to perform emergency operation management on the power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
Preferably, the evaluation scale establishing module 202 includes:
a deterministic evaluation scale establishing unit, configured to determine, when the evaluation language is a deterministic evaluation language, a deterministic evaluation scale by the following formula:
Figure BDA0002493353540000161
wherein the evaluation index corresponding to the evaluation language is divided into tau evaluation scales, SαAnd the evaluation scale is corresponding to the evaluation index.
Preferably, the evaluation scale establishing module 202 includes:
an uncertainty evaluation scale establishing unit, configured to determine, when the evaluation language is an uncertainty evaluation language, an uncertainty evaluation scale by the following formula:
Figure BDA0002493353540000171
wherein ,
Figure BDA0002493353540000172
for the uncertainty evaluation scale, SβIs the evaluation scale;
an evaluation scale conversion unit for converting the uncertainty evaluation scale into a certainty scale based on a preset mapping rule; the mapping rule is determined by the following formula, and the specific formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002493353540000173
γ＝f(α,β)
Figure BDA0002493353540000174
wherein ,SγFor the transformed deterministic scale, f is the mapping function,
Figure BDA0002493353540000175
is a preset BUM function.
Preferably, the index weight calculation module 203 includes:
the evaluation grade establishing unit is used for establishing an evaluation grade according to the evaluation scale;
the evaluation grade frequency calculation unit is used for calculating the evaluation grade frequency of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index at the evaluation grade;
a standard deviation calculation unit of evaluation level frequency for calculating a standard deviation of the evaluation level frequency;
and the index weight calculation unit is used for calculating the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to the standard deviation.
Preferably, the index weight calculation module 203 includes:
an evaluation level obtaining unit, configured to obtain the evaluation level according to formula (5):
Figure BDA0002493353540000176
wherein G ═ G1,g2,...,gτ]As the evaluation scale, giThe ith evaluation grade;
an evaluation level frequency obtaining unit, configured to obtain the evaluation level frequency according to formula (6):
Figure BDA0002493353540000181
wherein ,fijEvaluating index y for the power emergency plan exerciseiAt the evaluation level gjThe frequency of the evaluation level of (a),
Figure BDA0002493353540000182
evaluating index y for the power emergency plan exerciseiAt the evaluation level gjThe expert evaluation value of (1);
a standard deviation obtaining unit configured to obtain a standard deviation of the evaluation level frequency according to formula (7):
Figure BDA0002493353540000183
wherein ,σiM is the number of elements in the evaluation scale set;
the weight obtaining unit is used for obtaining the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to a formula (8):
Figure BDA0002493353540000184
wherein ,ωiIs the index weight.
Preferably, the evaluation result analysis module 205 includes:
a signal number sequence processing unit, configured to set the comprehensive evaluation value as a signal number sequence, interpolate the signal number sequence into upper and lower envelope curves of the signal number sequence by using a preset spline interpolation function model, and calculate to obtain an average envelope curve number sequence, and subtract the average envelope curve number sequence from the signal number sequence to obtain a processed signal number sequence;
an IMF component processing unit, configured to repeatedly perform the above steps until the average envelope number sequence approaches zero, obtain a first IMF component, and remove the IMF component from the signal number sequence;
and the evaluation result acquisition unit is used for repeatedly executing the two steps until the last sequence in the signal sequence is irrevocable, and acquiring the residual component of the signal sequence as the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
In the second embodiment of the present invention, an evaluation scale of an evaluation language is established by constructing an evaluation index of an electric power emergency plan, the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in a preset electric power emergency plan, which is obtained in advance, is converted into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale, an index weight of each electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation index is calculated by using a preset dispersion weight model, a comprehensive evaluation value of each expert is calculated according to the index weight of the electric power emergency plan exercise evaluation index and the evaluation value, the comprehensive evaluation value is input to a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset electric power emergency plan, and emergency operation management is performed on an electric power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset electric power emergency plan, so that by establishing the evaluation scale of the evaluation language, the method has the advantages that the evaluation scale of uncertainty evaluation indexes is accurately obtained, the stable state evaluation component is extracted by adopting the dispersion weight and the EMD method, the influence of subjective factors is eliminated to the maximum extent, objectivity and practicability are realized, the accuracy of electric power emergency plan evaluation is greatly improved, the operation of the power grid is reasonably managed through the electric power emergency plan evaluation result, the emergency operation efficiency of the power grid can be effectively improved, and the safe and stable operation of the power grid under the emergency condition is guaranteed.
The third grid emergency operation management device of the embodiment includes: a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, such as a grid emergency operation management program. The processor implements the steps in the above-described embodiments of the grid emergency operation management method when executing the computer program. Alternatively, the processor implements the functions of the modules/units in the above device embodiments when executing the computer program.
Illustratively, the computer program may be partitioned into one or more modules/units that are stored in the memory and executed by the processor to implement the invention. The one or more modules/units may be a series of computer program instruction segments capable of performing specific functions, which are used for describing the execution process of the computer program in the grid emergency operation management device.
The power grid emergency operation management device can be a desktop computer, a notebook computer, a palm computer, a cloud server and other computing devices. The grid emergency operation management device may include, but is not limited to, a processor and a memory. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the schematic diagram is merely an example of a grid emergency operation management device, and does not constitute a limitation of the grid emergency operation management device, and may include more or less components than those shown, or combine some components, or different components, for example, the grid emergency operation management device may further include input and output devices, network access devices, buses, and the like.
The Processor may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), other general purpose Processor, a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), an off-the-shelf Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) or other Programmable logic device, discrete Gate or transistor logic, discrete hardware components, etc. The general purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like, and the processor is a control center of the grid emergency operation management device and connects various parts of the whole grid emergency operation management device by using various interfaces and lines.
The memory may be used to store the computer programs and/or modules, and the processor may implement various functions of the grid emergency operation management device by operating or executing the computer programs and/or modules stored in the memory and calling data stored in the memory. The memory may mainly include a storage program area and a storage data area, wherein the storage program area may store an operating system, an application program required by at least one function (such as a sound playing function, an image playing function, etc.), and the like; the storage data area may store data (such as audio data, a phonebook, etc.) created according to the use of the cellular phone, and the like. In addition, the memory may include high speed random access memory, and may also include non-volatile memory, such as a hard disk, a memory, a plug-in hard disk, a Smart Media Card (SMC), a Secure Digital (SD) Card, a Flash memory Card (Flash Card), at least one magnetic disk storage device, a Flash memory device, or other volatile solid state storage device.
The integrated module/unit of the power grid emergency operation management device can be stored in a computer readable storage medium if the integrated module/unit is implemented in the form of a software functional unit and sold or used as an independent product. Based on such understanding, all or part of the flow of the method according to the embodiments of the present invention may also be implemented by a computer program, which may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method embodiments may be implemented. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code, which may be in the form of source code, object code, an executable file or some intermediate form, etc. The computer-readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, recording medium, usb disk, removable hard disk, magnetic disk, optical disk, computer Memory, Read-only Memory (ROM), Random Access Memory (RAM), electrical carrier wave signals, telecommunications signals, software distribution medium, etc. It should be noted that the computer readable medium may contain content that is subject to appropriate increase or decrease as required by legislation and patent practice in jurisdictions, for example, in some jurisdictions, computer readable media does not include electrical carrier signals and telecommunications signals as is required by legislation and patent practice.
It should be noted that the above-described device embodiments are merely illustrative, where the units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and the parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the present embodiment. In addition, in the drawings of the embodiment of the apparatus provided by the present invention, the connection relationship between the modules indicates that there is a communication connection between them, and may be specifically implemented as one or more communication buses or signal lines. One of ordinary skill in the art can understand and implement it without inventive effort.
While the foregoing is directed to the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.

Claims (10)

1. A power grid emergency operation management method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
constructing an electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index;
establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language, and converting the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in a preset power emergency plan acquired in advance into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale;
calculating the index weight of each power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model;
calculating a comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index and the evaluation value;
inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan;
and carrying out emergency operation management on the power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
2. The grid emergency operation management method according to claim 1, wherein the establishing of the evaluation scale of the evaluation language specifically includes:
when the evaluation language is a deterministic evaluation language, the deterministic evaluation scale is determined by the following formula, specifically the following formula:
Figure FDA0002493353530000011
wherein the evaluation index corresponding to the evaluation language is divided into tau evaluation scales, SαAnd the evaluation scale is corresponding to the evaluation index.
3. The grid emergency operation management method according to claim 2, wherein the establishing of the evaluation scale of the evaluation language further comprises:
when the evaluation language is an uncertainty evaluation language, an uncertainty evaluation scale is determined by the following formula:
Figure FDA0002493353530000021
wherein ,
Figure FDA0002493353530000022
for the uncertainty evaluation scale, SβIs the evaluation scale;
converting the uncertainty evaluation scale into a certainty scale based on a preset mapping rule; the mapping rule is determined by the following formula, and the specific formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0002493353530000023
γ＝f(α,β)
Figure FDA0002493353530000024
wherein ,SγFor the transformed deterministic scale, f is the mapping function,
Figure FDA0002493353530000025
is a preset BUM function.
4. The power grid emergency operation management method according to claim 3, wherein the calculating of the index weight of each power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by using a preset dispersion weight model specifically includes:
establishing an evaluation grade according to the evaluation scale;
calculating the evaluation grade frequency of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index at the evaluation grade;
calculating a standard deviation of the evaluation grade frequency;
and calculating the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to the standard deviation.
5. The grid emergency operation management method according to claim 4, wherein the calculating of the index weight of each power emergency plan drilling evaluation index using a preset dispersion weight model further includes:
obtaining the evaluation grade according to the formula (5):
Figure FDA0002493353530000031
wherein G ═ G1,g2,...,gτ]For the purpose of the evaluation rating, the evaluation value is,githe ith evaluation grade;
obtaining the evaluation grade frequency according to formula (6):
Figure FDA0002493353530000032
wherein ,fijEvaluating index y for the power emergency plan exerciseiAt the evaluation level gjThe frequency of the evaluation level of (a),
Figure FDA0002493353530000033
evaluating index y for the power emergency plan exerciseiAt the evaluation level gjThe expert evaluation value of (1);
obtaining the standard deviation of the evaluation grade frequency according to the formula (7):
Figure FDA0002493353530000034
wherein ,σiM is the number of elements in the evaluation scale set;
obtaining the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index according to a formula (8):
Figure FDA0002493353530000035
wherein ,ωiIs the index weight.
6. The grid emergency operation management method according to claim 4, wherein the inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan specifically includes:
setting the comprehensive evaluation value as a signal number sequence, interpolating the signal number sequence into upper and lower envelope lines of the signal number sequence by adopting a preset spline interpolation function model, calculating to obtain an average envelope line number sequence, and subtracting the average envelope line number sequence from the signal number sequence to obtain a processed signal number sequence;
repeatedly executing the steps until the average envelope line number sequence approaches zero to obtain a first IMF component, and removing the IMF component from the signal number sequence;
and repeatedly executing the two steps until the last sequence in the signal sequence is irrevocable, and acquiring the residual component of the signal sequence as the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
7. An emergency operation management device for a power grid, comprising:
the evaluation index construction module is used for constructing an electric power emergency plan drilling evaluation index;
the evaluation scale establishing module is used for establishing an evaluation scale of an evaluation language and converting the evaluation language corresponding to each index of each expert in a preset power emergency plan acquired in advance into an evaluation value according to the evaluation scale;
the index weight calculation module is used for calculating the index weight of each power emergency plan drilling evaluation index by adopting a preset dispersion weight model;
the comprehensive evaluation value calculation module is used for calculating the comprehensive evaluation value of each expert according to the index weight of the power emergency plan drilling evaluation index and the evaluation value;
the evaluation result analysis module is used for inputting the comprehensive evaluation value into a preset EMD decomposition model to obtain an evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan;
and the power grid emergency operation management module is used for carrying out emergency operation management on the power grid according to the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
8. The grid emergency operation management device according to claim 7, wherein the evaluation result analysis module includes:
a signal number sequence processing unit, configured to set the comprehensive evaluation value as a signal number sequence, interpolate the signal number sequence into upper and lower envelope curves of the signal number sequence by using a preset spline interpolation function model, and calculate to obtain an average envelope curve number sequence, and subtract the average envelope curve number sequence from the signal number sequence to obtain a processed signal number sequence;
an IMF component processing unit, configured to repeatedly perform the above steps until the average envelope number sequence approaches zero, obtain a first IMF component, and remove the IMF component from the signal number sequence;
and the evaluation result acquisition unit is used for repeatedly executing the two steps until the last sequence in the signal sequence is irrevocable, and acquiring the residual component of the signal sequence as the evaluation result of the preset power emergency plan.
9. A grid emergency operation management device comprising a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, the processor implementing the grid emergency operation management method of any one of claims 1 to 6 when executing the computer program.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, comprising a stored computer program, wherein the computer program, when executed, controls an apparatus in which the computer-readable storage medium is located to perform the grid emergency operation management method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.
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