CN111144759A - Industrial adjustment method based on comprehensive environmental risk field - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides an industrial adjustment method based on a comprehensive environment risk field. Analyzing the relation among the regional environment quality, the comprehensive environment risk and the industrial structure and the spatial layout, establishing a comprehensive environment risk field, and providing an industrial adjustment scheme of the region based on the comprehensive environment risk field. The invention comprehensively considers the relationship among the regional environment quality, the comprehensive environment risk and the industrial structure and the spatial layout, establishes the comprehensive environment risk field, and provides an industrial adjustment scheme of the research region based on the established comprehensive environment risk field, the information data is rich, and the evaluation mode comprehensively considers various risk factors, so that the evaluation result has higher referential property and poor reference property, thereby having higher accuracy for the adjustment and judgment of the industrial structure.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of environmental risk assessment and management, and particularly relates to an industrial adjustment method based on a comprehensive environmental risk field.
Background
The method is in the stage of urbanization and industrialization accelerated development in China, environmental risks caused by various artificial activities and natural disasters are continuously aggravated, serious environmental accidents frequently occur, and the health of people and the early threat of ecological environment are assisted. At present, the regional environmental risk evaluation is adopted to comprehensively evaluate a plurality of environmental risk factors in a region, the large-scale environmental risk possibly caused by functional layout, industrial positioning, project site selection and the like is focused, the bearable risk degree and damage level are determined based on the established regional environmental safety target, and a scientific basis is provided for the comprehensive management and planning of the regional development environmental risk. The technical problem existing in the mode is that information is relatively lack, and due to the fact that many risk factors cause great risk superposition difficulty, the referability of an obtained evaluation result is poor, and therefore the accuracy of adjustment and judgment of an industrial structure is affected.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention provides an industrial adjustment method based on a comprehensive environment risk field.
The following presents a simplified summary in order to provide a basic understanding of some aspects of the disclosed embodiments. This summary is not an extensive overview and is intended to neither identify key/critical elements nor delineate the scope of such embodiments. Its sole purpose is to present some concepts in a simplified form as a prelude to the more detailed description that is presented later.
The invention adopts the following technical scheme:
the industrial adjustment method based on the comprehensive environment risk field comprises the following steps:
s1: establishing a comprehensive environment risk field;
s2: and obtaining an industry adjusting scheme according to the established comprehensive environment risk field.
Wherein the step S1 includes:
s11: obtaining source data, wherein the source data comprises: the method comprises the following steps of (1) vector files of enterprise number, enterprise risk level, ecological red line, population density, economic density, water and soil environmental quality and schools, hospitals and main roads;
s12: analyzing the cross coupling between the water and soil environment and enterprises;
s13: evaluating individual environmental risks;
s14: assessing receptor vulnerability;
s15: and determining the weight of each index by using an AHP method according to the source data of the step S11 and the evaluation results of the steps S12 to S14, and obtaining a comprehensive environment risk value by weighted average, thereby evaluating a comprehensive environment risk field.
Wherein the step S12 includes:
s121: evaluating the water and soil environment quality by adopting an internal Mero index method to obtain a comprehensive pollution index of a sampling point;
s122: grading the comprehensive pollution indexes of the water and soil environment;
s123: interpolating the comprehensive pollution levels of the water and soil environment to form a grid file;
s124: carrying out industry classification on enterprises according to an industry classification standard;
s125: calculating the aggregation of enterprises, and calculating the industrial concentration condition of each industry in the research area by adopting the kernel density estimation in a spatial analysis method;
s126: gridding the research area;
s127: respectively counting the average values of the aggregation degree of the industrial enterprises in each grid, the comprehensive pollution index of the water environment and the comprehensive pollution index of the soil environment;
s128: adding the table obtained by calculation in the step S127 into the gridding file established in the step S126 to form a new Shp format file;
s129: and importing the Shp format file established in the step S128 into GeoDa software for coupling analysis to obtain a Lisa map and a significance map of the coupling analysis.
Wherein the step S13 includes: evaluating the environmental risk of the enterprise; assessing health risks; assessing ecological risks; and (4) aggregating the carcinogenic risk and the non-carcinogenic risk of the water and the soil in the health risk with the ecological risk to form the comprehensive environmental risk of the water and the soil, and adopting the weighted summation.
Wherein the process of assessing the environmental risk of the enterprise comprises: and (3) according to the enterprise emergency environment incident risk assessment guideline, evaluating the technological process, the environmental risk control level and the environmental risk receptor sensitivity by quantitatively analyzing the ratio of the quantity of all the environmental risk substances produced, processed, used and stored by the enterprise to the critical quantity thereof, and dividing the enterprise emergency environment incident risk grade according to a matrix method.
Wherein the process of assessing health risk comprises: calculating the health risk of transdermal exposure and oral ingestion of the contaminant; calculating a non-carcinogenic risk; and calculating the carcinogenic risk.
Wherein the process of assessing ecological risk comprises: carrying out soil ecological risk assessment according to a potential ecological hazard index method; and (4) carrying out water environment ecological risk assessment according to a mixture risk quotient method.
Wherein the step S14 includes: selecting indexes, wherein the indexes comprise: the distance from the school, the distance from the hospital, the distance from the ecological red line area, the distance from the road and the population density; assigning values to the selected indexes respectively; and weighting and summing according to the assignment and the weight of each index to obtain the receptor vulnerability of the research area.
The invention has the following beneficial effects: the invention comprehensively considers the relationship among the regional environment quality, the comprehensive environment risk and the industrial structure and the spatial layout, establishes the comprehensive environment risk field, and provides an industrial adjustment scheme of the research region based on the established comprehensive environment risk field, the information data is rich, and the evaluation mode comprehensively considers various risk factors, so that the evaluation result has higher referential property and poor reference property, thereby having higher accuracy for the adjustment and judgment of the industrial structure.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of an integrated environmental risk field indicator system;
FIG. 2 is a soil environment comprehensive pollution level interpolation graph using Pukou area of Nanjing city as an example;
FIG. 3 is a graph of the results of the spatial gridding of the region, for example, the Putou region of Nanjing;
FIG. 4 is a LISA diagram of coupling analysis, using the Putou region of Nanjing as an example;
FIG. 5 is a coupling analysis significance map, for example, of Putou area of Nanjing;
FIG. 6 is a flowchart of risk level assessment of an enterprise emergency environment event;
fig. 7 is an industry adjustment framework diagram.
Detailed Description
The following description and the drawings sufficiently illustrate specific embodiments of the invention to enable those skilled in the art to practice them. Other embodiments may incorporate structural, logical, electrical, process, and other changes. The examples merely typify possible variations. Individual components and functions are optional unless explicitly required, and the sequence of operations may vary. Portions and features of some embodiments may be included in or substituted for those of others.
In some illustrative embodiments, there is provided a method for integrated environmental risk field-based industry tuning, comprising:
s1: and establishing a comprehensive environment risk field.
The overall process involving risk sources, agents, receptors is considered to establish a comprehensive environmental risk field. The construction of the comprehensive environmental risk field index system follows the principles of systematicness, stability, difference and actuality. The specific index selection can be determined according to factors such as research requirements and data availability, an index system of the comprehensive environment risk field is shown in fig. 1, and cross coupling analysis of the three is performed in order to explore the relationship between enterprises and water and soil environments in the comprehensive environment risk field.
S2: and obtaining an industry adjusting scheme according to the established comprehensive environment risk field.
Wherein, step S1 includes:
s11: and acquiring source data, namely collecting the source data corresponding to the index system shown in FIG. 1.
The source data includes: the number of enterprises, the risk level of the enterprises, the ecological red line, the population density, the economic density, the environmental quality of water and soil, and the vector files of schools, hospitals and main roads.
S12: and analyzing the cross coupling of the water and soil environment and enterprises. ArcGIS software and GeoDa software are used for cross-coupling analysis of water and soil enterprises, and the specific analysis steps are as follows:
s121: evaluating the water and soil environment quality by adopting an internal Mero index method, and obtaining the comprehensive pollution index of a sampling point according to the following formula:
in the above formula, CiIs the concentration of the contaminant i; coiIs the standard concentration of the contaminant; pHealdIs the comprehensive pollution index of the sampling point; pimaxThe maximum value of the single pollution indexes of the pollutants at the i monitoring point is obtained; p is the single factor exponential average.
S122: and grading the comprehensive pollution indexes of the water and soil environment.
The comprehensive pollution index of the water environment is graded according to the following table:
the soil environment comprehensive pollution index grading refers to the following table:
s123: and (3) interpolating the comprehensive pollution level of the water and soil environment in ArcGIS software to form a grid file, as shown in FIG. 2.
S124: the enterprises are classified according to industry classification standards, for example, the latest national economic industry classification standard GB/T4754-2017 is adopted.
S125: the method comprises the steps of calculating the enterprise concentration in ArcGIS software, and calculating the industrial centralization condition of each industry in a research area by adopting the nuclear density estimation in a space analysis method.
S126: the research area is gridded by using a Create fishernet tool of a Data management module in the ArcGIS software, the size precision of the grid can be set by self, and the result is shown in FIG. 3.
S127: and respectively counting the average values of the aggregation degree of the industrial enterprises in each grid, the comprehensive pollution index of the water environment and the comprehensive pollution index of the soil environment by using a Zonal statistics as table tool of a Spatial analysis module in ArcGIS software.
S128: and adding the table calculated in the step S127 to the gridding file established in the step S126 by using the Join function in the ArcGIS to form a new Shp format file.
S129: and importing the Shp format file established in the step S128 into GeoDa software for coupling analysis, creating a space weight, and selecting two variable Lisa graphs and a significance graph which need to be subjected to bivariate analysis.
S1210: lisa plots and significance plots of the GeoDa software analysis were derived as shown in figures 4 and 5.
Step S1 further includes: s13: individual environmental risks are evaluated.
Step S13 includes: evaluating the environmental risk of the enterprise; assessing health risks; assessing ecological risks; and aggregating the water and soil carcinogenic risk, the non-carcinogenic risk and the ecological risk in the health risk to form a water and soil comprehensive environment risk, and summing by adopting a weighting method, wherein the specific weights are obtained by an AHP method.
As shown in FIG. 6, the process of assessing the environmental risk of an enterprise includes: comprehensively considering the conditions of dangerous substances, equipment facilities, risk management and the like of an enterprise, grading the environmental risks of the enterprise, quantitatively analyzing the ratio Q of the quantity of all environmental risk substances produced, processed, used and stored by the enterprise to the critical quantity thereof, evaluating the technological process and environmental risk control level M and the environmental risk receptor sensitivity E according to an enterprise emergency environmental event risk evaluation guideline, and grading the enterprise emergency environmental event risk grades according to a matrix method. The environmental risk grades are divided into three grades of general environmental risk, larger environmental risk and important environmental risk.
The process of assessing health risk includes:
first, the health risk of exposure to skin and oral ingestion of contaminants was calculated using the methods recommended by the U.S. EPA, as follows:
in the formula, ADD is the daily exposure dose of pollutants, mg/kg/d; c is the concentration of the pollutant in water or soil, mg/L, mg/m3Or mg/kg; IR is intake rate, L/d, m3(ii)/d, or kg/d; EF is exposure frequency, d/yr, in the present invention, EF is calculated as 365 d/yr; ED is the exposure period, yr; BW is weight, kg, of the exposer; AT is the average action time days, and the unit is d; in the present invention, for non-carcinogenic effects: AT ═ ED × 365; for carcinogenic effects: AT 70 years.
Then, the non-carcinogenic risk, expressed as hazard quotient HQ, is calculated, as follows:
in the above formula, ADD is daily pollutant exposure dose; rfD is the reference dose of the contaminant.
Finally, the carcinogenic risk is calculated as follows:
ILCR＝ADD×SF；
in the above formula, ILCR is the carcinogenic risk resulting from contaminant exposure; ADD is the daily exposure dose of the contaminant; SF is the carcinogenic slope of a contaminant.
The process of assessing ecological risk includes: carrying out soil ecological risk assessment according to a potential ecological hazard index method; and (4) carrying out water environment ecological risk assessment according to a mixture risk quotient method.
Potential ecological hazard index method:
in the above formula, RI is a multi-element environmental risk comprehensive index; ei rThe environmental risk index of the ith heavy metal; ci fThe pollution coefficient of the heavy metal i relative to a reference value; ci sThe measured concentration of the heavy metal is obtained; ci nThe evaluation reference value of the heavy metal i is obtained; t isi rThe response coefficient of the toxicity of the heavy metal i is obtained by experience value, and the response coefficient mainly reflects the toxicity level of the heavy metal and the sensitivity degree of the environment to the heavy metal.
Mixture risk business method:
in the formula, RQ is a water environment comprehensive ecological risk quotient; MECiThe measured concentration value of the i pollutant in the water body is obtained; HC5To protect 95% of the biohazard concentration; NOECiFor no observed effect concentrations of i contaminants, data were from the ECOTOX database of the U.S. EPA.
Step S1 further includes: s14: the receptor vulnerability was evaluated. Step S14 includes the following steps:
firstly, selecting indexes, defining the vulnerability of an environmental risk receptor as the comprehensive measurement of the degree of the receptor possibly exposed to a certain risk factor and the response capability of the receptor to risks, wherein the vulnerability consists of social vulnerability and physical vulnerability, and considering social and economic factors and combining the availability of data, 5 indexes are selected in total to evaluate the vulnerability of the receptor, and the indexes are respectively as follows: the closest distance to school, the closest distance to hospital, the closest distance to ecological red line area, the closest distance to road, and population density.
Then, the selected indexes are respectively assigned, and the indexes of the receptor vulnerability are referred to the following table in a grading way:
receptor vulnerability assessment population density ratings are referenced in the following table:
and finally, weighting and summing according to the assignment and the weight of each index to obtain the receptor vulnerability of the research area. The weight of each single index is determined by an AHP method, and the vulnerability of the receptor is graded according to the following table:
step S1 further includes: s15: and (4) comprehensive environmental risk field evaluation. And determining the weight of each index by using an AHP method according to the source data of the step S11 and the evaluation results of the steps S12 to S14, and obtaining a comprehensive environment risk value by weighted average, thereby evaluating a comprehensive environment risk field.
The weight of each index determined by the AHP method is as follows:
in step S2, an industry adjustment plan is obtained according to the established integrated environment risk field, that is, an industry adjustment plan for a region is proposed by comprehensively considering the current environmental quality, the current social and economic status, the region planning, and the like of the region based on the evaluation result of the integrated environment risk field in step S1, as shown in fig. 7. Based on cross coupling analysis of enterprises and water and soil, the coupling relation between industry aggregation and water and soil environments can be obtained.
Step S2 includes:
s21: and adjusting the industrial structure.
S22: and optimizing the spatial layout.
Step S21 includes:
s211: the method has the advantages that the introduction quantity of enterprises is limited for the conditions that the aggregation degree of the enterprises is high and the water and soil environmental pollution index is high, and for industries with high aggregation degree and serious pollution.
Specifically, for the conditions that the aggregation degree of an enterprise is high and the water and soil environment pollution index is high, the characteristic pollutants of each industry are specifically analyzed, and for the industries with high aggregation degree and serious pollution, the introduction quantity of the enterprise is limited.
S212: for the conditions that the aggregation degree of enterprises is high and the water and soil environmental pollution index is low, the current category of industrial enterprises is developed in a key way.
Specifically, for the case where the degree of aggregation of the enterprise is high and the index of pollution to the water and soil environment is low, it can be seen that although such an enterprise aggregates, the quality status of the local water and soil environment is still good, which indicates that the industrial structure and spatial distribution in these areas are reasonable, and the aggregation of the enterprise does not cause a large load on the local water and soil environment, so that the industrial enterprises of this category can be intensively developed.
S213: under the conditions that the aggregation degree of enterprises is low and the water and soil environment pollution index is low, the current type of industrial enterprises can be properly introduced, but the water and soil environment quality change of the area needs to be concerned all the time, so that the good state of the water and soil environment quality is kept.
Specifically, for the case that the enterprise aggregation degree is low and the water and soil environment pollution index is low, it is indicated that the water and soil environment pollution load in the area is not high, the industrial aggregation development aspect has a great potential, and the industrial aggregation development aspect can be properly introduced into enterprises of the same type, but the water and soil environment quality change in the area needs to be concerned all the time, and the good state of the water and soil environment quality is maintained.
S214: and for the conditions that the enterprise aggregation degree is low and the water and soil environmental pollution index is high, centralized management is carried out on the industries of the current category.
Specifically, the system is an area which needs to be focused when an industrial structure adjustment scheme is made for the condition that the enterprise aggregation degree is low and the water and soil environmental pollution index is high, enterprises of the industry are scattered, but the environmental impact is relatively high, and centralized management can be performed on the industry, such as formation of an industrial park.
In addition, based on the current industrial situation and planning of the region, the leading industry of the region is identified, a novel green and environment-friendly industry is advocated to be developed vigorously to replace the industry with serious pollution and high environmental risk, and meanwhile, the future industry development direction is determined by combining the industrial development planning of the region.
Step S22 includes:
s221: based on comprehensive environment risk field analysis, reducing the environment risk of areas with higher comprehensive environment risk, and upgrading, migrating or shutting down the process of key environment risk enterprises;
s222: for the areas with medium comprehensive environmental risks, the total number of risk enterprises in the areas is controlled, environmental risk assessment is carried out on newly entered enterprises, and an admission threshold is set;
s223: for the non-ecological sensitive area with lower comprehensive environmental risk, the introduction of partial risk enterprises is received, and the method has greater development potential;
s224: the method comprises the steps of determining a forbidden zone of environmental risk enterprise distribution based on regional ecological red line planning, and determining the region and range of each industry which can be adjusted in space according to different urban functional zones by combining urban space planning.
Those of skill would further appreciate that the various illustrative logical blocks, modules, circuits, and algorithm steps described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein may be implemented as electronic hardware, computer software, or combinations of both. To clearly illustrate this interchangeability of hardware and software, various illustrative components, blocks, modules, circuits, and steps have been described above generally in terms of their functionality. Whether such functionality is implemented as hardware or software depends upon the particular application and design constraints imposed on the overall system. Skilled artisans may implement the described functionality in varying ways for each particular application, but such implementation decisions should not be interpreted as causing a departure from the scope of the present disclosure.
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Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN114943441A (en) * | 2022-05-17 | 2022-08-26 | 北京师范大学 | A regional soil pollution health risk assessment method based on POI data |
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| CN115439012A (en) * | 2022-10-14 | 2022-12-06 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 | GIS-based fine-grained evaluation method for urban construction suitability in arid oasis county-level regions |
| CN115439012B (en) * | 2022-10-14 | 2023-08-25 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 | GIS-based arid oasis county level region town construction suitability refinement evaluation method |
| CN116402353A (en) * | 2023-06-06 | 2023-07-07 | 长江水资源保护科学研究所 | Comprehensive evaluation method and system for heavy metal pollution of industrialized urban water body |
| CN116402353B (en) * | 2023-06-06 | 2023-09-05 | 长江水资源保护科学研究所 | Comprehensive evaluation method and system for heavy metal pollution of industrialized urban water body |
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