CN111125903A - Method for calculating evacuation reliability of fire personnel in subway tunnel train - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a method for calculating the safety evacuation reliability of fire personnel in a subway tunnel train, which comprises the following steps of: determining the influence factors of the fire of the tunnel train and the influence factors of the evacuation of the people of the tunnel train; respectively determining the fire condition of the tunnel train and the evacuation condition of fire personnel of the train according to the influence factors; respectively establishing a train fire model and a train fire personnel evacuation model; obtaining the safe evacuation time value (T) available for people under different fire working conditions through numerical simulationA) And a value of time (T) for safe evacuation of personsR) (ii) a Safe evacuation time (T) of persons obtained by simulationR) Sampling and carrying out statistical analysis on the data to determine a probability distribution function of the personnel safe evacuation time; safe evacuation time (T) available to the combined personnelA) Calculate out a personThe probability that the personnel can be safely evacuated is the safety evacuation reliability of the personnel; the method is simple and is suitable for calculating the evacuation reliability of fire personnel of different tunnel trains.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of safe evacuation of fire personnel of subway tunnel trains, in particular to a method for calculating evacuation reliability of fire personnel of subway tunnel trains.
Background
With the rapid development of national economy, the traffic conditions of large and medium-sized cities are gradually crowded, and in order to relieve the traffic pressure of the cities, a subway traffic transportation system gradually becomes an important component of a modern urban comprehensive transportation system and bears more and more important large passenger flow transportation tasks. Because the space in the subway tunnel is relatively closed, the evacuation condition is poor, and people in the subway train are very dense, once a fire disaster occurs, the generated high-temperature smoke is difficult to discharge, and the fire disaster is difficult to put out a fire disaster, so that the life and property safety of drivers and passengers is seriously threatened, and the severe social influence is also caused. The reliability of safe evacuation of people refers to the probability that people can be safely evacuated in a fire environment.
At present, domestic and foreign scholars mainly propose a corresponding personnel safety evacuation reliability model and algorithm by considering different factors influencing personnel safety evacuation in the research of safety evacuation of subway tunnel train fire personnel, qualitatively analyze relevant problems of personnel safety evacuation, and have few research methods on personnel safety evacuation probability.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problem of providing a method for calculating the evacuation reliability of fire personnel in a subway tunnel train, and aims to solve the technical problem.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme that the method for calculating the evacuation reliability of fire personnel in the subway tunnel train comprises the following steps:
s1: acquiring relevant parameters of a tunnel structure, a disaster prevention zone and a train carriage according to actual engineering, and determining the influence factors of a tunnel train fire and the influence factors of evacuation of tunnel train personnel;
s2: respectively determining a train fire condition and a train fire personnel evacuation condition according to the influence factors of the train fire and the influence factors of the tunnel train personnel evacuation, and respectively establishing a tunnel train fire model and a tunnel train fire personnel evacuation model;
s3: respectively obtaining the personnel available safe evacuation time T under different tunnel train fire models through numerical simulationAAnd each in the train under different tunnel train fire personnel evacuation modelsNecessary safe evacuation time T of personnelR；
S4: the necessary safe evacuation time T of each person obtained in the above S3RRandomly sampling to obtain a sample of the necessary safe evacuation time of people under the fire people evacuation model of the tunnel train;
s5: performing mathematical statistical analysis on the sample of the time required for safe evacuation of the people obtained in the above step S4 to obtain a probability distribution function f (T) of the time required for safe evacuation of the peopleR)；
S6: combining the time TA for evacuation of persons available and the probability distribution function f (T) of the time necessary for evacuation of persons obtained in the above S3 and S5R) And calculating the safety evacuation reliability R of fire personnel in the tunnel train.
Further, in the step S5, the probability distribution function f (T) of the time required for evacuation of people is describedR) Is a function of a normal distribution curve,
in the formula: μ: average evacuation time of people, σ: degree of dispersion of the average evacuation time of people.
Further, in the step S6, the people evacuation safety reliability R is a probability of people being safely evacuated from the train. Further, the personnel safe evacuation reliability R is the safe evacuation time T available for the personnelAGreater than the time T for the necessary safe evacuation of the personnelRFor the decision criteria, the formula for R is:
further, in step S1, the factors affecting the tunnel train fire include model size, fire source power and ventilation.
Further, in step S1, the factors influencing evacuation of the people in the tunnel train include ventilation, location of fire source, distance between evacuation ports, and width of evacuation port.
Further, in the step S3, the time TA for safe evacuation of people is the time from the beginning of the threat of fire smoke to the safe evacuation of people.
Further, in the step S3, the required evacuation time TR for the persons is a time required for the persons in the train to evacuate from the train to the intra-tunnel safe passage.
Further, tunnels in the tunnel train fire model and the tunnel train fire personnel evacuation model are subway shield interval tunnels; an evacuation platform is arranged on one side in a tunnel of a subway shield zone in the fire model of the tunnel train, and a plurality of temperature measuring points, visibility measuring points and CO measuring points are uniformly arranged at intervals at the position 2m above the evacuation platform; the evacuation platform is provided with an evacuation port; a safety channel is arranged on one side in the subway shield interval tunnel; the tunnel train is subway A type.
Further, a fire source of a fire scene in the tunnel train fire model adopts steady-state fire or t-square fire, and the power of the fire source is 5-10 MW.
Compared with the prior art, the invention at least comprises the following beneficial effects:
the method is simple, can set parameters according to the actual conditions of the subway tunnels, is suitable for evacuating people in the train fire in different subway tunnels, and can also be used for evacuating people in other building fires. The calculation method is scientific and effective, and has numerical simulation and mathematical statistics analysis and more theoretical basis. Compared with the existing method for calculating the evacuation reliability of the fire personnel in the tunnel train, the method is simpler, more convenient and more practical, the probability of safe evacuation of the personnel can be intuitively obtained, and the obtained result has more innovation and guiding significance. The design of structural parameters such as a tunnel evacuation platform, an evacuation port interval and the like can be effectively guided by calculating the safety evacuation reliability of the personnel, the reliability of the built safety evacuation facility of the subway tunnel is checked, the train personnel can be effectively evacuated in the subway tunnel, and the design of the disaster prevention evacuation rescue engineering of the subway tunnel is safe, applicable and economic and reasonable.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for calculating evacuation reliability of fire people in a subway tunnel train according to the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a tunnel model established in the present invention.
Fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of a tunnel model established in the present invention.
Fig. 4 is a graph of temperature change at a height of 2m above the evacuation platform.
Fig. 5 is a graph of visibility change at a height of 2m above the evacuation platform.
FIG. 6 is a graph showing the CO concentration change at a height of 2m above the evacuation platform,
in the drawings, the reference numerals denote the following components:
1. the method comprises the following steps of (1) a shield tunnel of a subway section, 2) an evacuation platform, 3, temperature, visibility and CO concentration measuring points, 4, evacuation ports, 5, a safety channel, 6 and a subway train.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
It is to be noted that the experimental methods described in the following embodiments are all conventional methods unless otherwise specified, and the reagents and materials, if not otherwise specified, are commercially available; in the description of the present invention, the terms "lateral", "longitudinal", "up", "down", "front", "back", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "top", "bottom", "inner", "outer", etc., indicate orientations or positional relationships based on the orientations or positional relationships shown in the drawings, are only for convenience in describing the present invention and simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the device or element being referred to must have a particular orientation, be constructed and operated in a particular orientation, and thus, should not be construed as limiting the present invention.
Furthermore, the terms "horizontal", "vertical", "overhang" and the like do not imply that the components are required to be absolutely horizontal or overhang, but may be slightly inclined. For example, "horizontal" merely means that the direction is more horizontal than "vertical" and does not mean that the structure must be perfectly horizontal, but may be slightly inclined.
In the description of the present application, it is further noted that, unless expressly stated or limited otherwise, the terms "disposed," "mounted," "connected," and "connected" are to be construed broadly, e.g., as meaning either a fixed connection, a removable connection, or an integral connection; can be mechanically or electrically connected; they may be connected directly or indirectly through intervening media, or they may be interconnected between two elements. The specific meaning of the above terms in the present application can be understood in a specific case by those of ordinary skill in the art.
As shown in fig. 1 to 6, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for calculating evacuation reliability of fire people in a subway tunnel train, including the following specific steps:
s1: acquiring relevant parameters of a tunnel structure, a disaster prevention zone and a train carriage according to actual engineering, and determining the influence factors of a tunnel train fire and the influence factors of evacuation of tunnel train personnel;
s2: respectively determining a train fire condition and a train fire personnel evacuation condition according to the influence factors of the train fire and the influence factors of the tunnel train personnel evacuation, and respectively establishing a tunnel train fire model and a tunnel train fire personnel evacuation model;
s3: respectively obtaining the personnel available safe evacuation time T under different tunnel train fire models through numerical simulationAAnd the necessary safe evacuation time T of each person in the train under different tunnel train fire hazard person evacuation modelsR；
S4: the necessary safe evacuation time T of each person obtained in the above S3RRandomly sampling to obtain a sample of the necessary safe evacuation time of people under the fire people evacuation model of the tunnel train;
s5: performing mathematical statistics on the samples of the necessary evacuation time for the people obtained in the above S4Analyzing to obtain the probability distribution function f (T) of the time for people to safely evacuateR)；
S6: the time T for safe evacuation of persons obtained in the above-mentioned S3 and S5AAnd the probability distribution function f (T) of the time required for safe evacuation of peopleR) And calculating the safety evacuation reliability R of fire personnel in the tunnel train.
In this embodiment, the relevant parameters of the tunnel structure, the disaster prevention zone and the train carriages include the sizes of the structures and the trains in the tunnel; the influence factors of the tunnel train fire mainly comprise model size, fire source power and ventilation condition; the influence factors of the subway tunnel train personnel evacuation mainly comprise ventilation condition, fire source position, evacuation port distance and evacuation port width.
In this embodiment, in the step S2, the established tunnel train fire model and the tunnel train fire evacuation model are a three-dimensional tunnel train fire simulation model and a three-dimensional tunnel train fire evacuation simulation model, which are established according to the tunnel and train structure parameters, and have a length of the tunnel size × the width × the height of 2600m × 4.8m × 4.5m and a length of the train size × the width × the height of 140m × 3m × 3.8 m.
In this embodiment, in step S2, a three-dimensional tunnel train fire simulation model under four working conditions a1-a4 and a three-dimensional tunnel train fire evacuation simulation model under eight working conditions B1-B8 are respectively established;
in step S3, the safe evacuation time available for people (T)A) The time from the beginning of threatening the fire smoke to the safe evacuation of personnel is represented; the safe evacuation time (T) available to the personA) The temperature at the position 2m above the evacuation platform of the tunnel is not more than 60 ℃, the visibility is not less than 10m, and the CO concentration is not more than 500ppm as a judgment standard, when a certain position 2m above the evacuation platform reaches one of the 3 conditions, the personnel can be considered to be in a dangerous state, and the safe evacuation time (T) available for the personnel can be obtainedA)。
In the present invention, in the step S3, the evacuation time (T) for people safetyR) For the time required for the persons in the train to evacuate from the train to the secured passage in the tunnel, the persons must be safely evacuated for a time (T)R) Tong (Chinese character of 'tong')And performing numerical simulation by using personnel evacuation simulation software.
In the embodiment, an evacuation platform 2 with the width of 0.75m is arranged on one side in a subway shield interval tunnel 1, and a plurality of measuring points (temperature measuring points, visibility measuring points and CO measuring points) 3 are uniformly arranged at intervals at the 2m height above the evacuation platform; each measuring point (temperature measuring point, visibility measuring point and CO measuring point) 3 is provided with a temperature sensor (model PT100), a visibility sensor (model CS 120) and a CO sensor (model BM 5011X), each sensor (temperature sensor, visibility sensor and CO sensor) is connected with a controller (model TC-SCR) through a line, the temperature sensor, the visibility sensor and the CO sensor detect the temperature, the visibility and the CO concentration of the corresponding temperature measuring point, the visibility measuring point and the CO measuring point 3, and send the corresponding temperature signal, visibility signal and CO concentration signal to the controller, and the controller receives the corresponding signal for storage. The controller, the temperature sensor, the visibility sensor and the CO sensor all adopt the prior art, and control circuits between the sensors and the controller also adopt the prior art; the evacuation platform 2 is provided with an evacuation port 4; one side in the subway shield interval tunnel is equipped with the escape way 5, and personnel's accessible is dredged mouth 4 and is reachd in the escape way 5.
In this embodiment, the tunnel train is a subway a-type vehicle 6, and the length × width × height of the tunnel train is 140m × 3m × 3.8 m; the passenger capacity of the fixed member in the subway A-type vehicle 6 is 1860 people.
In this embodiment, a fire source of the fire scene adopts a steady-state fire or a t-square fire, and the fire source is located at the bottom of a carriage at the joint of the 3 rd carriage and the 4 th carriage of the subway A-type vehicle and at the midpoint of a driving line; the power of the fire source is 5-15 MW, and the preferred power is 7.5 MW.
On the basis of the above conditions, numerical simulation is carried out in the tunnel train fire model, the value of a certain influence factor is changed in sequence, and the safe evacuation time (T) available to people under different values is obtainedA) The specific simulation results are shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 safe evacuation time available to personnel (T)A) Numerical simulation results
Taking a2 as an example for analysis, drawing and analyzing data measured by temperature measuring points, visibility measuring points and CO measuring points which are uniformly arranged at intervals at a height of 2m above an evacuation platform to obtain the time when the temperature reaches 60 ℃, the visibility reaches 10m and the CO concentration reaches 500ppm at the height of 2m above the evacuation platform, namely the safe evacuation Time (TA) available for personnel, which is shown in fig. 4-6:
FIG. 4 is a graph of temperature change at a height of 2m above the evacuation platform, and it can be known from FIG. 4 that when a fire disaster occurs to 268s, only the temperature near the fire source reaches above 60 ℃, and at this time, the critical moment for safe evacuation of people is reached;
fig. 5 is a graph showing the visibility change at a height of 2m above the evacuation platform, and it can be known from fig. 5 that when a fire disaster occurs to 268s, the visibility within 70m from the fire source reaches a critical value of 10m, which is at a critical moment of safe evacuation of people;
FIG. 6 is a diagram of CO concentration variation at a height of 2m above the evacuation platform, from FIG. 6, it can be known that the CO concentration is always less than 500 ppm;
since the temperature at the height of 2m above the evacuation platform was higher than 60 ℃ only in the vicinity of the fire source when 268s of the fire occurred, the visibility within 70m of the fire source had reached the critical value of 10m, and the CO concentration was low, it follows that the safe evacuation time (T) available to the personnel in the fire situation of a2 was obtained (TA) Is 268 s.
On the basis of the above conditions, the simulation working conditions of the three-dimensional tunnel train fire personnel evacuation simulation model under eight working conditions B1-B8 are shown in Table 2,
TABLE 2 simulation of evacuation of persons
Numerical simulation is carried out on the personnel evacuation simulation working conditions in the table, the values of certain influence factors are sequentially changed, and the necessary safe evacuation time (T) of each person under different values is obtainedR) The sampling is simply and randomly carried out to obtain the sampling under different people evacuation working conditionsCarrying out mathematical statistical analysis on the samples of the time required for the safe evacuation of the personnel to obtain a probability distribution function f (T) of the time required for the safe evacuation of the personnelR) Wherein, in the step (A),
in the formula: μ: average evacuation time of people, σ: degree of dispersion of the average evacuation time of people.
Whether the necessary safe evacuation time of the inspectors accords with a normal distribution curve or not is judged, and the inspection result is shown in a table 3:
TABLE 3 inspection results of the time required for safe evacuation of the persons
According to the test results in table 3, the progressive significance of the evacuation conditions of 8 groups is significantly greater than 0.05, which indicates that the assumption of no virtual acceptance, i.e. the necessary safe evacuation time (T) of the people is completely acceptedR) Obeying normal distribution and recording as TR～N(μ，σ2) The specific calculation result of the probability distribution of the evacuation time of people is shown in table 4.
TABLE 4 probability distribution table of necessary evacuation time for personnel
According to the standard for safe evacuation of subways (GBT33668-2017), the time for fire alarm and the time for preaction of personnel can be set to 120 s. The shortest evacuation time of people can be set to 120s, so the formula (2) can be:
the safe evacuation time (T) available to the people obtained in Table 2A) Numerical values and the necessary safe evacuation time (T) for the persons in Table 4R) In the probability distribution introduction (3), the reliability of safe evacuation of people can be obtained. Taking the calculation of the personnel safe evacuation reliability of the personnel evacuation scene B1 under the fire scene A1 as an example, under the fire working condition A1, the available safe evacuation time of the personnel is 280s, and the shortest evacuation time of the personnel is 120 s. The evacuation reliability of the people in the evacuation scenario B1 is calculated by equation (3):
the safe evacuation reliability of the people under the condition that the people are not ventilated under the condition that the evacuation scenes (B1-B5 and B7) of the people are respectively under the condition of fire scenes (A1-A3) can be obtained through the calculation method, and the calculation result is shown in a table 5.
TABLE 5 evacuation reliability of people in each fire scenario without ventilation
| Numbering | B1 | B2 | B3 | B4 | B5 | B7 |
| A1 | 0.2099 | 0.1779 | 0.1131 | 0.1768 | 0.187 | 0.0507 |
| A2 | 0.1912 | 0.1597 | 0.1017 | 0.1571 | 0.1669 | 0.0485 |
| A3 | 0.1665 | 0.1352 | 0.0887 | 0.1309 | 0.14 | 0.0424 |
The calculation method can obtain the safe evacuation reliability of people under the condition that each person evacuation scene (B6, B8) is respectively under the condition of a fire scene (A4) under the ventilation condition, and the calculation results are 0.9599 and 0.9564 respectively.
By the method, one or more influencing factors are changed, simulation calculation is carried out, and the reliability of safe evacuation of people in different scenes can be quickly and conveniently obtained.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: the method is simple, can set parameters according to the actual conditions of the subway tunnels, is suitable for evacuating people in the train fire in different subway tunnels, and can also be used for evacuating people in other building fires. The calculation method is scientific and effective, and has numerical simulation and mathematical statistics analysis and more theoretical basis. Compared with the existing method for calculating the evacuation reliability of the fire personnel in the tunnel train, the method is simpler, more convenient and more practical, the probability of safe evacuation of the personnel can be intuitively obtained, and the obtained result has more innovation and guiding significance. The design of structural parameters such as a tunnel evacuation platform, an evacuation port interval and the like can be effectively guided by calculating the safety evacuation reliability of the personnel, the reliability of the built safety evacuation facility of the subway tunnel is checked, the train personnel can be effectively evacuated in the subway tunnel, and the design of the disaster prevention evacuation rescue engineering of the subway tunnel is safe, applicable and economic and reasonable.
The above-described embodiments are merely illustrative of the preferred embodiments of the present invention and do not limit the spirit and scope of the present invention. Various modifications and improvements of the technical solutions of the present invention may be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the design concept of the present invention, and the technical contents of the present invention are all described in the claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method for calculating evacuation reliability of fire personnel in a subway tunnel train is characterized by comprising the following specific steps:
s1: acquiring relevant parameters of a tunnel structure, a disaster prevention zone and a train carriage according to actual engineering, and determining the influence factors of a tunnel train fire and the influence factors of evacuation of tunnel train personnel;
s2: respectively determining a train fire condition and a train fire personnel evacuation condition according to the influence factors of the train fire and the influence factors of the tunnel train personnel evacuation, and respectively establishing a tunnel train fire model and a tunnel train fire personnel evacuation model;
s3: respectively obtaining the personnel available safe evacuation time T under different tunnel train fire models through numerical simulationAAnd the necessary safe evacuation time T of each person in the train under different tunnel train fire hazard person evacuation modelsR；
S4: randomly sampling the necessary safe evacuation time TR of each person obtained in the step S3 to obtain a sample of the necessary safe evacuation time of the persons under the fire person evacuation model of the tunnel train;
s5: performing mathematical statistical analysis on the sample of the time required for safe evacuation of the people obtained in the above step S4 to obtain a probability distribution function f (T) of the time required for safe evacuation of the peopleR)；
S6: combining the time TA for evacuation of persons available and the probability distribution function f (T) of the time necessary for evacuation of persons obtained in the above S3 and S5R) And calculating the safety evacuation reliability R of fire personnel in the tunnel train.
2. The method for calculating the evacuation reliability of fire personnel in a subway tunnel train as claimed in claim 1, wherein: in step S5, the probability distribution function f (T) of the time required for evacuation of peopleR) Is a function of a normal distribution curve,
in the formula: μ: average evacuation time of people, σ: degree of dispersion of the average evacuation time of people.
3. The method for calculating the evacuation reliability of fire personnel in a subway tunnel train as claimed in claim 1, wherein: in the step S6, the people evacuation safety reliability R is a probability of safe evacuation of people in the train.
4. The method for calculating the evacuation reliability of fire personnel in a subway tunnel train as claimed in claim 3, wherein: the personnel safe evacuation reliability R takes the personnel available safe evacuation time TA larger than the personnel necessary safe evacuation time TR as a judgment standard, and the calculation formula of R is as follows:
5. the method for calculating the evacuation reliability of fire personnel in a subway tunnel train as claimed in claim 1, wherein: in step S1, the factors affecting the tunnel train fire include model size, fire source power and ventilation.
6. The method for calculating the evacuation reliability of fire personnel in a subway tunnel train as claimed in claim 1, wherein: in step S1, the factors influencing evacuation of the train in the tunnel include ventilation condition, location of fire source, distance between evacuation ports, and width of evacuation port.
7. The method for calculating the evacuation reliability of fire personnel in a subway tunnel train as claimed in claim 1, wherein: in the step S3, the safe evacuation time T for peopleAThe time from the beginning of the fire smoke to the safe evacuation of people is shown.
8. The method for calculating the evacuation reliability of fire personnel in a subway tunnel train as claimed in claim 1, wherein: in step S3, the required evacuation time TR is the time required for the persons in the train to evacuate from the train to the intra-tunnel safe passage.
9. The method for calculating the evacuation reliability of fire personnel in a subway tunnel train as claimed in any one of claims 1-8, wherein: the tunnel in the tunnel train fire model and the tunnel train fire personnel evacuation model is a subway shield interval tunnel; an evacuation platform is arranged on one side in a tunnel of a subway shield zone in the fire model of the tunnel train, and a plurality of temperature measuring points, visibility measuring points and CO measuring points are uniformly arranged at intervals at the position 2m above the evacuation platform; the evacuation platform is provided with an evacuation port; a safety channel is arranged on one side in the subway shield interval tunnel; the tunnel train is subway A type.
10. The method for calculating the evacuation reliability of fire personnel in a subway tunnel train as claimed in claim 9, wherein: the fire source of the fire scene in the tunnel train fire model adopts steady-state fire or t-square fire, and the power of the fire source is 5-10 MW.
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| CN111859664A (en) * | 2020-07-20 | 2020-10-30 | 东北石油大学 | Method for determining horizontal evacuation speed of middle-aged and elderly people in evacuation model |
| CN112199882A (en) * | 2020-11-17 | 2021-01-08 | 上海交通大学 | Simulation method for evacuation process of people in fire, evacuation early warning method and system |
| CN116090736A (en) * | 2022-11-26 | 2023-05-09 | 中国消防救援学院 | Fire-fighting emergency evacuation management and control method and system |
| CN117952810A (en) * | 2024-03-26 | 2024-04-30 | 山东科技大学 | Personnel evacuation path planning method and related device based on subway station fire |
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| CN112199882B (en) * | 2020-11-17 | 2022-03-11 | 上海交通大学 | Simulation method for evacuation process of people in fire, evacuation early warning method and system |
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