CN111027831A - Investment decision method and system based on economic evaluation model - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides an investment decision method based on an economic evaluation model, which comprises the following steps: acquiring project data corresponding to a project to be evaluated, and preprocessing the project data; calculating the increment income after the project to be evaluated is put into operation according to the project data after the pretreatment is finished; calculating the operation and maintenance cost after the project to be evaluated is put into operation by adopting a Bayesian method; calculating the allocation cost after the project to be evaluated is put into operation by adopting an operation chain and value chain analysis tool; calculating the project capital cost of the project to be evaluated according to the resources occupied by the project to be evaluated and the capital cost rate; and establishing an economic evaluation model taking economic profit as a key index according to the increment income after the investment of the project to be evaluated, the operation and maintenance cost after the investment, the apportionment cost after the investment and the project capital cost, and analyzing the economic feasibility of the project to be evaluated by adopting the economic evaluation model to obtain an investment decision result. The invention also provides an investment decision system based on the economic evaluation model based on the method.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of investment decision of power grid projects, in particular to an investment decision method and an investment decision system based on an economic evaluation model.
Background
At present, manual review is mainly adopted for economic evaluation of power grid enterprise engineering projects, however, at present, no set of mature evaluation standards exist for manual review of economic evaluation of power grid enterprise engineering projects, certain subjective randomness of manual review is achieved during economic evaluation, and economic evaluation of power grid engineering projects tends to be of 'heavy technology and light economy'.
With the advent of the big data era, data mining and analysis are gradually valued by people, and at present, a big data platform is mainly adopted to process massive data, including data acquisition and analysis. The existing data mining and analyzing platform provides richer data mining technologies and data analyzing algorithms, but the existing investment decision model does not reflect the requirements of enterprises on value creation because of incompleteness in the aspect of autonomous model creation in the investment decision field; in addition, the current data mining and analyzing platform is single in algorithm selection, and cannot select a proper algorithm according to the magnitude of data, so that the processing efficiency during data mining and analyzing cannot be guaranteed.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides an investment decision method based on an economic evaluation model and an investment decision system based on the economic evaluation model, aiming at overcoming the defect that an algorithm model in a data mining analysis platform in the prior art can not reflect the requirement of an enterprise on value creation.
In order to solve the technical problems, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
an investment decision method based on an economic evaluation model comprises the following steps:
s1: acquiring project data corresponding to a project to be evaluated, and preprocessing the project data;
s2: calculating the increment income after the project to be evaluated is put into operation according to the project data which is preprocessed;
s3: calculating the operation and maintenance cost after the project to be evaluated is put into operation by adopting a Bayesian method;
s4: calculating the allocation cost after the project to be evaluated is put into operation by adopting a working chain and value chain analysis tool;
s5: calculating the project capital cost of the project to be evaluated according to the resources occupied by the project to be evaluated and the capital cost rate;
s6: and establishing an economic evaluation model taking economic profit as a key index according to the increment income after the investment of the project to be evaluated, the operation and maintenance cost after the investment, the apportionment cost after the investment and the project capital cost, and analyzing the economic feasibility of the project to be evaluated by adopting the economic evaluation model to obtain an investment decision result.
In the technical scheme, an economic evaluation model taking economic profit as a decision index is established by integrating enterprise characteristics and value management theoretical research, a project to be evaluated is evaluated, an investment decision result is obtained, and the method is applied to measuring project value creativity.
Preferably, the item data corresponding to the item to be evaluated includes, but is not limited to: service user electricity consumption data, project estimated electricity sales amount after production, estimated electricity sales unit price, project production to bring about adjacent power supply area estimated increase electricity sales amount, project production to bring about adjacent power supply area estimated decrease electricity sales amount, project investment amount, project estimated operation and maintenance cost after production, project capital cost, project occupied capital and capital cost rate.
Preferably, the step of preprocessing the electricity consumption data of the service users comprises rejecting the non-newly added electricity of the non-newly added service users.
Preferably, in step S2, the calculation formula of the post-delivery increment income of the item to be evaluated is as follows:
estimated project increment income is estimated to be predicted electric quantity after project delivery multiplied by estimated price difference of purchased electric quantity
Expected increase of electricity sales in adjacent power supply areas caused by project production
Price difference for electricity purchase and sale
Expected reduction of electricity sales in adjacent power supply areas brought by project production
The price difference of electricity purchase and sale is estimated;
wherein, the estimated electricity selling price difference is the estimated electricity selling price-the estimated electricity selling price.
Preferably, in the step S3, the specific steps include: analyzing influence factors of the estimated operation and maintenance cost after the project to be evaluated is put into production, combining asset full life cycle management, counting data of the full life cycle cost of various assets, establishing a Bayesian model for cost estimation, correcting the Bayesian model through data collection and verification to obtain the Bayesian model for calculating the operation and maintenance cost after the project to be evaluated is put into production, and then passing the project data after the preprocessing through the Bayesian model to obtain the operation and maintenance cost after the project to be evaluated is put into production.
Preferably, in the step S4, the specific steps include: acquiring historical cost data of each unit, adopting a working chain and a value chain analysis tool, predicting the electricity sales amount after the project of the project to be evaluated is put into production, and calculating to obtain the allocation cost after the project is put into production.
Preferably, in the step S5, the calculation formula of the project capital cost of the project to be evaluated is as follows:
the capital cost of the project is the capital occupied by the project x the capital cost rate.
Preferably, in the step S6, the economic evaluation model with economic profit as a key indicator is expressed as follows:
economic profit-project capital cost
Estimated incremental revenue after project delivery-estimated operation and maintenance costs after project delivery-
Projected amortization cost-project capital cost after project commissioning.
Preferably, in the step S6, the specific step of analyzing the economic feasibility of the item to be evaluated by using the economic evaluation model includes: taking the service life of the project to be evaluated as an evaluation period, adopting the economic evaluation model to measure and calculate the economic profit in the whole period, and taking the positive and negative values of the economic profit calculation result as the result of evaluating the economic feasibility of the project: when the economic profit calculation result is a positive value, the project evaluation investment decision result is feasible; and when the economic profit calculation result is a negative value, the project evaluation investment decision result is not feasible.
The invention also provides an investment decision system based on the economic evaluation model, which is applied to the investment decision method based on the economic evaluation model and comprises the following steps:
the system comprises a database, a database and a database, wherein historical project data are stored in the database;
the project management module is connected with the database and used for uploading project data of projects to be evaluated or historical projects to the database through data interaction with the database;
the model management module is connected with the database and used for storing the economic evaluation model after training, calling the historical economic evaluation model and transmitting the historical economic evaluation model to the project evaluation module for project evaluation;
the project evaluation module is respectively connected with the project management module, the model management module and the database, and is used for acquiring project data of a project to be evaluated through connection with the project management module and the database, acquiring an economic evaluation model of the same type as the project to be evaluated through the model management module, then updating the weight in the preset economic evaluation model to obtain the economic evaluation model conforming to the project to be evaluated, applying the economic evaluation model to the project to be evaluated, and outputting an economic evaluation result of the project to be evaluated.
In the technical scheme, a project management module interacts project data with a database; the model management module stores historical economic evaluation models, the project evaluation models select economic evaluation models of similar types from the model management module, project data of a current project to be evaluated are obtained through the project management module, historical project data are obtained from a database, the project data of the current project to be evaluated are preprocessed according to the historical project data, then the preprocessed project data are input into the selected economic evaluation models to be trained, tested and evaluated, and economic evaluation results of the project to be evaluated are output.
Compared with the prior art, the technical scheme of the invention has the beneficial effects that: by means of research of enterprise characteristics and value management theories, an economic evaluation model with economic profits as decision indexes is established, requirements of enterprises on value creation are integrated, and accuracy of project economic feasibility evaluation can be improved.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of an investment decision method based on an economic evaluation model of example 1.
Fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of an investment decision system based on an economic evaluation model according to embodiment 2.
Detailed Description
The drawings are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be construed as limiting the patent;
for the purpose of better illustrating the embodiments, certain features of the drawings may be omitted, enlarged or reduced, and do not represent the size of an actual product;
it will be understood by those skilled in the art that certain well-known structures in the drawings and descriptions thereof may be omitted.
The technical solution of the present invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
Example 1
The present embodiment provides an investment decision method based on an economic evaluation model, and as shown in fig. 1, is a flowchart of the investment decision method based on the economic evaluation model according to the present embodiment.
The investment decision method based on the economic evaluation model provided by the embodiment is applied to project investment decision of power supply enterprises, and specifically comprises the following steps:
s1: and acquiring project data corresponding to the project to be evaluated, and preprocessing the project data.
In this embodiment, the item data corresponding to the item to be evaluated includes service user power consumption data, an expected electricity sales amount after the item is put into production, an expected electricity sales unit price, an expected increase in electricity sales amount in an adjacent power supply area due to the item being put into production, an expected decrease in electricity sales amount in an adjacent power supply area due to the item being put into production, an item investment amount, an expected operation and maintenance cost after the item being put into production, an item capital cost, an item occupied capital, and an item cost rate.
The step of preprocessing the electricity consumption data of the service users comprises the step of rejecting the non-newly increased electricity of the non-newly increased service users. In this embodiment, due to the characteristics of the power supply enterprise production operation pair, a newly-produced project provides electric quantity for a served user, the served user is not a newly-added user caused by the production of the new project, and it is possible that other users are switched to the project in order to reduce the power supply pressure of other power supply assets, so that the electric quantity of the part of users is not newly-added, and therefore, the electric quantity needs to be removed in prediction; meanwhile, due to the access of users in other areas, the power supply capacity of the original power supply area is released, the increase of users in other adjacent power supply areas and the increase of electric quantity can be brought, the new electric quantity indirectly brought by a new project needs to be added when new increase and income are expected after the project is put into production.
S2: and calculating the increment income after the project to be evaluated is put into operation according to the project data which is subjected to the pretreatment.
In this step, the calculation formula of the increment income after the project to be evaluated is put into practice is as follows:
estimated project increment income is estimated to be predicted electric quantity after project delivery multiplied by estimated price difference of purchased electric quantity
Expected increase of electricity sales in adjacent power supply areas caused by project production
Price difference for electricity purchase and sale
Expected reduction of electricity sales in adjacent power supply areas brought by project production
The price for electricity purchase is expected to be poor.
Wherein, the estimated electricity selling price difference is the estimated electricity selling price-the estimated electricity selling price.
S3: and calculating the operation and maintenance cost after the project to be evaluated is put into operation and maintenance by adopting a Bayesian method.
In this step, the specific steps include: analyzing influence factors of the estimated operation and maintenance cost after the project to be evaluated is put into production, combining asset full life cycle management, counting data of the full life cycle cost of various assets, establishing a Bayesian model for cost estimation, correcting the Bayesian model through data collection and verification to obtain the Bayesian model for calculating the operation and maintenance cost after the project to be evaluated is put into production, and then passing the project data after the preprocessing through the Bayesian model to obtain the operation and maintenance cost after the project to be evaluated is put into production.
S4: and calculating the allocation cost of the project to be evaluated after the project is put into operation by adopting a working chain and value chain analysis tool.
In this step, the specific steps include: acquiring historical cost data of each unit, adopting a working chain and a value chain analysis tool, predicting the electricity sales amount after the project of the project to be evaluated is put into production, and calculating to obtain the allocation cost after the project is put into production.
Due to the characteristic of tree-shaped distribution of power grid assets of the power supply enterprise, the cost of the power grid assets of the power supply enterprise not only comprises the operation and maintenance cost of the project in the step S3 after the project is put into operation, but also comprises the cost of the operation and maintenance cost of high-voltage-level equipment between a power supply point and the project assets, which is shared by the project assets. Therefore, the operation chain and value chain analysis tools are adopted in the step, and the allocation cost after the project to be evaluated is put into operation is further calculated.
S5: and calculating the project capital cost of the project to be evaluated according to the resources occupied by the project to be evaluated and the capital cost rate.
In this step, the calculation formula of the project capital cost of the project to be evaluated is as follows:
the capital cost of the project is the capital occupied by the project x the capital cost rate.
The project capital cost in the embodiment is mainly used for measuring and calculating the resources occupied by the project and the capital cost rate to determine the project capital cost, wherein the resources occupied by the project are subject to project approximate calculation and actual settlement amount, and the capital cost rate is comprehensively determined according to the state resource commission assessment requirement and the market interest rate level.
S6: and establishing an economic evaluation model taking economic profit as a key index according to the increment income after the investment of the project to be evaluated, the operation and maintenance cost after the investment, the apportionment cost after the investment and the project capital cost, and analyzing the economic feasibility of the project to be evaluated by adopting the economic evaluation model to obtain an investment decision result.
In this step, the specific step of analyzing the economic feasibility of the project to be evaluated by using the economic evaluation model includes: taking the service life of the project to be evaluated as an evaluation period, adopting the economic evaluation model to measure and calculate the economic profit in the whole period, and taking the positive and negative values of the economic profit calculation result as the result of evaluating the economic feasibility of the project: when the economic profit calculation result is a positive value, the project evaluation investment decision result is feasible; and when the economic profit calculation result is a negative value, the project evaluation investment decision result is not feasible.
According to the investment decision method based on the economic evaluation model, the economic evaluation model taking economic profit as a decision index is established through comprehensive enterprise characteristics and value management theoretical research, the item to be evaluated is evaluated, the investment decision result is obtained, and the investment decision method is applied to measuring the item value creation capacity, so that the value creation requirements of enterprises are reflected, and the accuracy of the investment decision and economic feasibility evaluation of the enterprise item is effectively improved.
Example 2
The present embodiment provides an investment decision system based on an economic evaluation model, and as shown in fig. 2, is a schematic structural diagram of the investment decision system based on the economic evaluation model according to the present embodiment.
The investment decision system based on the economic evaluation model provided by this embodiment applies the investment decision method based on the economic evaluation model provided by embodiment 1, and specifically includes the following structure:
a database 1, wherein historical project data are stored in the database 1;
the project management module 2 is connected with the database 1 and used for uploading project data of a project to be evaluated or a historical project to the database 1 through data interaction with the database 1;
the model management module 3 is connected with the database 1 and used for storing the economic evaluation model after training, calling the historical economic evaluation model and transmitting the historical economic evaluation model to the project evaluation module 4 for project evaluation;
the project evaluation module 4 is connected with the project management module 2, the model management module 3 and the database 1 respectively, wherein the project evaluation module 4 is used for acquiring project data of a project to be evaluated through connection with the project management module 2 and the database 1, acquiring an economic evaluation model of the same type as the project to be evaluated through the model management module 3, then updating the weight in the preset economic evaluation model to obtain an economic evaluation model according with the project to be evaluated, applying the economic evaluation model to the project to be evaluated and outputting an economic evaluation result of the project to be evaluated.
In the specific implementation process, an evaluator inputs project data of a project to be evaluated into a project management module 2, the project management module 2 uploads the acquired project data to a database 1 for storage, and the project data is sent to a project evaluation module 4; the project evaluation module 4 selects the economic evaluation models of the same type from the model management module 3 according to the project data received from the project management module 2, and calls the historical project data of the same type from the database to train the selected economic evaluation models, so as to obtain the economic evaluation models suitable for the projects to be evaluated. Inputting project data of a project to be evaluated into the economic evaluation model, taking the service life of the project to be evaluated as an evaluation period, adopting the economic evaluation model to measure and calculate economic profits of a whole period for striking attention to be evaluated, and taking positive and negative values of an economic profit calculation result as a project evaluation investment decision result: when the economic profit calculation result is a positive value, the project evaluation investment decision result is feasible; and when the economic profit calculation result is a negative value, the project evaluation investment decision result is not feasible.
The same or similar reference numerals correspond to the same or similar parts;
the terms describing positional relationships in the drawings are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be construed as limiting the patent;
it should be understood that the above-described embodiments of the present invention are merely examples for clearly illustrating the present invention, and are not intended to limit the embodiments of the present invention. Other variations and modifications will be apparent to persons skilled in the art in light of the above description. And are neither required nor exhaustive of all embodiments. Any modification, equivalent replacement, and improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. An investment decision method based on an economic evaluation model is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1: acquiring project data corresponding to a project to be evaluated, and preprocessing the project data;
s2: calculating the increment income after the project to be evaluated is put into operation according to the project data which is preprocessed;
s3: calculating the operation and maintenance cost after the project to be evaluated is put into operation by adopting a Bayesian method;
s4: calculating the allocation cost after the project to be evaluated is put into operation by adopting a working chain and value chain analysis tool;
s5: calculating the project capital cost of the project to be evaluated according to the resources occupied by the project to be evaluated and the capital cost rate;
s6: and establishing an economic evaluation model taking economic profit as a key index according to the increment income after the investment of the project to be evaluated, the operation and maintenance cost after the investment, the apportionment cost after the investment and the project capital cost, and analyzing the economic feasibility of the project to be evaluated by adopting the economic evaluation model to obtain an investment decision result.
2. The economic valuation model based investment decision method of claim 1, wherein: the item data corresponding to the item to be evaluated includes, but is not limited to: service user electricity consumption data, project estimated electricity sales amount after production, estimated electricity sales unit price, project production to bring about adjacent power supply area estimated increase electricity sales amount, project production to bring about adjacent power supply area estimated decrease electricity sales amount, project investment amount, project estimated operation and maintenance cost after production, project capital cost, project occupied capital and capital cost rate.
3. The economic valuation model based investment decision method of claim 2, wherein: and the step of preprocessing the electricity consumption data of the service users comprises the step of rejecting the non-newly increased electricity of the non-newly increased service users.
4. The economic valuation model based investment decision method of claim 3 wherein: in the step S2, the calculation formula of the post-delivery increment income of the item to be evaluated is as follows:
estimated project increment income is estimated to be predicted electric quantity after project delivery multiplied by estimated price difference of purchased electric quantity
Expected increase of electricity sales in adjacent power supply areas caused by project production
Price difference for electricity purchase and sale
Expected reduction of electricity sales in adjacent power supply areas brought by project production
The price difference of electricity purchase and sale is estimated;
wherein, the estimated electricity selling price difference is the estimated electricity selling price-the estimated electricity selling price.
5. The economic valuation model based investment decision method of claim 2, wherein: in the step S3, the specific steps include: analyzing influence factors of the estimated operation and maintenance cost after the project to be evaluated is put into production, combining asset full life cycle management, counting data of the full life cycle cost of various assets, establishing a Bayesian model for cost estimation, correcting the Bayesian model through data collection and verification to obtain the Bayesian model for calculating the operation and maintenance cost after the project to be evaluated is put into production, and then passing the project data after the preprocessing through the Bayesian model to obtain the operation and maintenance cost after the project to be evaluated is put into production.
6. The economic valuation model based investment decision method of claim 2, wherein: in the step S4, the specific steps include: acquiring historical cost data of each unit, adopting a working chain and a value chain analysis tool, predicting the electricity sales amount after the project of the project to be evaluated is put into production, and calculating to obtain the allocation cost after the project is put into production.
7. The economic valuation model based investment decision method of claim 2, wherein: in the step S5, the calculation formula of the project capital cost of the project to be evaluated is as follows:
the capital cost of the project is the capital occupied by the project x the capital cost rate.
8. The economic valuation model based investment decision method of claim 2, wherein: in the step S6, the expression formula of the economic evaluation model using economic profit as a key indicator is as follows:
economic profit-project capital cost
Estimated incremental revenue after project delivery-estimated operation and maintenance costs after project delivery-
Projected amortization cost-project capital cost after project commissioning.
9. The economic valuation model based investment decision method of claim 8, wherein: in the step S6, the specific step of analyzing the economic feasibility of the item to be evaluated by using the economic evaluation model includes: taking the service life of the project to be evaluated as an evaluation period, adopting the economic evaluation model to measure and calculate the economic profit in the whole period, and taking the positive and negative values of the economic profit calculation result as the result of evaluating the economic feasibility of the project: when the economic profit calculation result is a positive value, the project evaluation investment decision result is feasible; and when the economic profit calculation result is a negative value, the project evaluation investment decision result is not feasible.
10. An investment decision system based on an economic evaluation model, comprising:
the system comprises a database, a database and a database, wherein historical project data are stored in the database;
the project management module is connected with the database and used for uploading project data of projects to be evaluated or historical projects to the database through data interaction with the database;
the model management module is connected with the database and used for storing the economic evaluation model after training, calling the historical economic evaluation model and transmitting the historical economic evaluation model to the project evaluation module for project evaluation;
the project evaluation module is respectively connected with the project management module, the model management module and the database, and is used for acquiring project data of a project to be evaluated through connection with the project management module and the database, acquiring an economic evaluation model of the same type as the project to be evaluated through the model management module, then updating the weight in the preset economic evaluation model to obtain the economic evaluation model conforming to the project to be evaluated, applying the economic evaluation model to the project to be evaluated, and outputting an economic evaluation result of the project to be evaluated.
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| CN113052707A (en) * | 2021-04-30 | 2021-06-29 | 中国工商银行股份有限公司 | Application production method and device, computer equipment and storage medium |
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