CN109784725A - A kind of investment decision method and system of power grid project - Google Patents
A kind of investment decision method and system of power grid project Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN109784725A CN109784725A CN201910039454.2A CN201910039454A CN109784725A CN 109784725 A CN109784725 A CN 109784725A CN 201910039454 A CN201910039454 A CN 201910039454A CN 109784725 A CN109784725 A CN 109784725A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- power grid
- grid project
- project
- investment
- investment decision
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Pending
Links
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 35
- 230000008901 benefit Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 63
- 230000002068 genetic effect Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 13
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 claims description 18
- 230000007613 environmental effect Effects 0.000 claims description 18
- 230000005611 electricity Effects 0.000 claims description 16
- 239000003245 coal Substances 0.000 claims description 10
- 238000009826 distribution Methods 0.000 claims description 9
- 230000009466 transformation Effects 0.000 claims description 7
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 claims description 6
- 230000007717 exclusion Effects 0.000 claims description 5
- 238000011109 contamination Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000006735 deficit Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 239000007789 gas Substances 0.000 description 6
- MWUXSHHQAYIFBG-UHFFFAOYSA-N nitrogen oxide Inorganic materials O=[N] MWUXSHHQAYIFBG-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 6
- CURLTUGMZLYLDI-UHFFFAOYSA-N Carbon dioxide Chemical compound O=C=O CURLTUGMZLYLDI-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 4
- RAHZWNYVWXNFOC-UHFFFAOYSA-N Sulphur dioxide Chemical compound O=S=O RAHZWNYVWXNFOC-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 4
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 description 4
- 230000005540 biological transmission Effects 0.000 description 3
- 239000003344 environmental pollutant Substances 0.000 description 3
- 231100000719 pollutant Toxicity 0.000 description 3
- 229910002092 carbon dioxide Inorganic materials 0.000 description 2
- 239000001569 carbon dioxide Substances 0.000 description 2
- 230000008859 change Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000009434 installation Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000012423 maintenance Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000002950 deficient Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000003111 delayed effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000006185 dispersion Substances 0.000 description 1
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000002708 enhancing effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- PCHJSUWPFVWCPO-UHFFFAOYSA-N gold Chemical compound [Au] PCHJSUWPFVWCPO-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 1
- 239000010931 gold Substances 0.000 description 1
- 229910052737 gold Inorganic materials 0.000 description 1
- 230000006872 improvement Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000007726 management method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000009022 nonlinear effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005457 optimization Methods 0.000 description 1
- 231100000614 poison Toxicity 0.000 description 1
- 230000007096 poisonous effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000009467 reduction Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000004576 sand Substances 0.000 description 1
- 238000012216 screening Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000004575 stone Substances 0.000 description 1
- 230000005619 thermoelectricity Effects 0.000 description 1
- 239000002699 waste material Substances 0.000 description 1
Classifications
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
- Y02E40/00—Technologies for an efficient electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y02E40/70—Smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the energy generation sector
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
Landscapes
- Supply And Distribution Of Alternating Current (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The present invention relates to the investment decision methods and system of a kind of power grid project, which is characterized in that including the following contents: analyzing the investment decision factor for influencing power grid project, constructs investment decision index system；Based on investment decision index system, target is turned to comprehensive benefit maximum, constructs the investment decision model of power grid project；Obtain the essential information of power grid project to be invested；The combination of optimal power grid project or power grid project is determined according to the essential information of the investment decision model of building and power grid project to be invested using genetic algorithm, the present invention can be widely applied in network system planning field.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the investment decision methods and system of a kind of power grid project, belong to network system planning field.
Background technique
Under the electricity market comprising numerous condition of uncertainty, to guarantee the economy invested, reasonability, validity,
There is an urgent need to further investigate to investment decision method, new investment decision method is proposed, really realize the city of electric generation investment
Fieldization prevents the excess investment or under-capitalization of power construction, so that the sustainable development for enterprise provides guarantee.Research is uncertain
Generation investment decision problem under the conditions of property, can not only enrich and develop modern investment theory, and to reasonable disposition resource, mention
The high level of resources utilization ensures that the permanently effective operation of electricity market has important practical significance.
Either in products in kind investment field still in financial product investment field, most of investment is actually
Investment under condition of uncertainty.According to NPV (net present value (NPV)) theory, it can analyze and obtain under condition of uncertainty, it is traditional
Investment decision method, even net present value method in method there is inborn defective therefore can go out in actual application
Now it is not suitable with.In certain sense, there is no will be right in an investment project life cycle management for traditional investment decision method
The influential all factors of the value of investment project all take into account, because the hypothesis of its theoretical basis mainly includes project
Life cycle fixes, non-delayed property, unalterable feature, the stability of investment environment and the time value problem for not considering investment
Five principles.However, real-life investment decision, especially is difficult to have simultaneously in the investment decision of power grid project at this stage
The standby precondition that these assume, cannot on the whole evaluate power grid project.
Summary of the invention
In view of the above-mentioned problems, the object of the present invention is to provide the electricity that one kind can on the whole evaluate power grid project
The investment decision method and system of net project.
To achieve the above object, the present invention takes following technical scheme: a kind of investment decision method of power grid project, special
Sign is, including the following contents: analyzing the investment decision factor for influencing power grid project, constructs investment decision index body
System；Based on investment decision index system, target is turned to comprehensive benefit maximum, constructs the investment decision model of power grid project；It obtains
Take the essential information of power grid project to be invested；Using genetic algorithm, according to the investment decision model of building and power grid item to be invested
Purpose essential information determines the combination of optimal power grid project or power grid project.
Preferably, the investment decision index system includes that economic benefits indicator, social benefit index and environmental benefit refer to
Mark, wherein the economic benefits indicator includes financial situation index and assets utilization efficiency index, the financial situation index packet
Investment construction cost, year O&M cost, annual earnings and rate of return on investment are included, the assets utilization efficiency index includes capacity-load ratio.
It is preferably based on investment decision index system, target is turned to comprehensive benefit maximum, constructs the investment of power grid project
Decision model, detailed process are as follows: according to investment decision index system, determine economic benefit function, the social benefit of power grid project
Function and environmental benefit function；According to the power transformation capacity consistency of each voltage class of power grid project, the reliable of power grid project is determined
Property cost function；Target is turned to comprehensive benefit maximum, constructs the objective function of the investment decision model of power grid project；It determines and throws
The constraint condition that money decision model needs to meet.
Preferably, according to investment decision index system, determine the economic benefit function of power grid project, social benefit function and
Environmental benefit function, detailed process are as follows: 1. according to the economic benefits indicator of investment decision index system, determine the warp of power grid project
It helps benefit function NPV (X):
Wherein, n is the total number of power grid project, and T is the life cycle of power grid project, CIitFor i-th of power grid project t
The power selling income in year, COitFor the operation cost of i-th of power grid project t, I is rate of return on investment, FCiFor i-th of power grid item
Fixed cost when mesh investment construction；xiFor dummy variable, the investment situation of i-th of power grid project is represented, if xi=1, then it represents that
Invest i-th of power grid project；If xi=0, then it represents that do not invest i-th of power grid project；2. according to investment decision index system
Social benefit index determines the social benefit function SC (X) of power grid project:
Wherein, ciFor to decision project installed capacity, c is existing project installed capacity, CueFor power grid maximum short of electricity at
This；3. determining the environmental benefit function E (X) of power grid project according to the environmental benefit index of investment decision index system:
Wherein, m is the species number of exhaust emission gas, ρiThe mark coal that every degree electricity is saved is generated by i-th of power grid project
Amount, PjFor the discharge price of jth kind gas, γjThe jth kind contamination gas scale of construction discharged by one ton of mark coal of every consumption, WiIt is i-th
The annual electricity generating capacity of a power grid project, and:
Wherein, cos α is power factor, tiFor year effective generating dutation of i-th of power grid project.
Preferably, the reliability cost function of the power grid project are as follows:
Wherein, P (X) is the reliability cost function of power grid project, and α is influence of the power distribution network residual capacity to power grid enterprises
Coefficient, β are that influence coefficient of the power distribution network deficit power to power grid enterprises is target area network system main line average load, and L is
Power supply area peak load, γ, θ are the bound of capacity-load ratio under a certain voltage class.
Preferably, the constraint condition of the investment decision model includes: A) project mutual exclusion and subordinate constrain
If policymaker cannot invest power grid project i and power grid project j simultaneously, the two power grid projects there are mutex relation,
Then exist:
xi+xj≤1
If policymaker must invest power grid project i when investing power grid project j, there are subordinates for the two power grid projects about
Beam then exists:
xi-xj≤0
B) capital scale constrains:
Wherein, FCiFixed cost when building for i-th of power grid project investment, M are the gross investment amount of money upper limit.
Preferably, the objective function of the investment decision model of the power grid project are as follows:
MaxZ=NPV (X)+E (X)+SC (X)-P (X)
Wherein, maxZ is the objective function of the investment decision model of power grid project.
Preferably, the constraint condition of the investment decision model includes: that a) project mutual exclusion and subordinate constrain
If policymaker cannot invest power grid project i and power grid project j simultaneously, the two power grid projects there are mutex relation,
Then exist:
xi+xj≤1
If policymaker must invest power grid project i when investing power grid project j, there are subordinates for the two power grid projects about
Beam then exists:
xi-xj≤0
B) capital scale constrains, and is indicated using penalty function F (X):
Wherein, P is a maximum, so that the combination of power grid project or power grid project beyond capital scale constraint can not
Meet the objective function of investment decision model；FCiFixed cost when building for i-th of power grid project investment, M are gross investment gold
The volume upper limit.
Preferably, the objective function of the investment decision model of the power grid project are as follows:
MaxZ=NPV (X)+E (X)+SC (X)-P (X)-F (X)
Wherein, maxZ is the objective function of the investment decision model of power grid project.
A kind of decision support system of power grid project characterized by comprising investment decision index system establishment module,
For analyzing the investment decision factor for influencing power grid project, investment decision index system is constructed；Investment decision model structure
Block is modeled, for being based on investment decision index system, target is turned to comprehensive benefit maximum, constructs the investment decision of power grid project
Model；Essential information obtains module, for obtaining the essential information of power grid project to be invested；Power grid project determining module, is used for
Optimal power grid is determined according to the essential information of the investment decision model of building and power grid project to be invested using genetic algorithm
The combination of project or power grid project.
The invention adopts the above technical scheme, which has the following advantages: 1, the present invention not only fully considers power grid item
The economic benefit of mesh investment, it is also contemplated that social benefit and environmental benefit as brought by electric grid investment, extracting influences power grid project
The principal element of investment decision has stronger applicability.2, the investment decision model of the power grid project constructed by the present invention, with
Based on Modern Portfolio Theory, optimization aim is up to comprehensive benefit, optimum results can be used for power grid project investment
Optimum allocation.3, it is adopted for high dispersion possessed by processing power grid projects combo problem, non-linear property and higher-dimension, the present invention
Model solution is carried out with genetic algorithm, genetic algorithm has easy to operate, multiple spot optimizing, can handle multiple target and multi-constraint condition
The advantages that, investment decision model can be efficiently and accurately solved, the combination of optimal power grid project or power grid project is obtained, it can be with
It is widely used in network system planning field.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the method for the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Come to carry out detailed description to the present invention below in conjunction with attached drawing.It should be appreciated, however, that attached drawing has been provided only more
Understand the present invention well, they should not be interpreted as limitation of the present invention.
As shown in Figure 1, the investment decision method of power grid project provided by the invention, comprising the following steps:
1) the investment decision factor for influencing power grid project is analyzed, constructs investment decision index system, including economy
Performance indicator, social benefit index and environmental benefit index.
1.1) economic benefits indicator, including financial situation index and assets utilization efficiency index, wherein financial situation index
Including investment construction cost, year O&M cost, annual earnings and rate of return on investment, assets utilization efficiency index includes capacity-load ratio.
1.1.1) investment construction cost:
The index generally includes the investment construction of substation project, converter station project and work transmission line these three types engineering
Cost, wherein the investment construction cost of substation project mainly include with main transformer system, power distribution equipment and other mainly produce work
The relevant architectural engineering expense of journey, original equipment cost and installation fee；The investment construction cost of converter station project include change theological damage,
AC-DC power distribution unit, earthing pole engineering and other productions build relevant construction projects take, original equipment cost and installation fee；It is defeated
The investment construction cost of electric line engineering mainly includes the native country engineerings such as a cubic metre of earth stone engineering cost, tower engineering expense, stringing engineering cost
Take.
1.1.2) year O&M cost:
Power grid project can generate certain O&M expense during formally putting into operation and daily maintenance, including line loss is taken
With expenses such as, equipment purchase expense and overhaul, light maintenance and Daily Round Checks.The index can be remembered according to year O&M expense history
Record, is estimated using analogy method.
1.1.3) annual earnings:
The situation of Profit of power grid project is measured to obtain by regional T-D tariff with net electricity is crossed, it may be assumed that
Net electricity (1) is crossed in the annual earnings of power grid project=Local Units electricity T-D tariff × year
1.1.4) rate of return on investment:
Rate of return on investment refer to enterprise by power grid item invest should or desired economy return, can
The profit target that enterprise carries out project investment is embodied, its calculation formula is:
Rate of return on investment=engineering project annual profit/total investment × 100% (2)
1.1.5) capacity-load ratio:
The index can characterize each voltage class power transformation capacity for the power supply capacity of actual loading.Its calculation (is divided
Voltage class calculates) are as follows:
Wherein, RSFor capacity-load ratio, unit is kilovolt-ampere kilowatt；Pmax is the voltage class peak load, and unit is multifarious
Watt；∑ Sei is the power transformation total capacity of the voltage class, and unit is ten thousand kilovolt-amperes.The power transformation total capacity ∑ Sei of the voltage class is counted
The station step-up transformer capacity, interregional connecting transformer capacity, user's dedicated varying capacity of the voltage class are not counted in when calculation
And direct-furnish load capacity.The voltage class peak load Pmax is the power transformation total capacity ∑ Sei of the voltage class corresponding all
The maximum burden with power of the year of main transformer.
1.2) social benefit index, the index mainly reflect the transmission reliability enhancing because power grid project investment increases, transmission of electricity
The social benefit that channel is sufficient and generates, the present invention use the social benefit of outage cod (SC) Lai Hengliang power grid project investment.
1.3) environmental benefit index, which mainly reflects because electric grid investment construction level is promoted, and promotes new energy electric power
After long-distance sand transport reduction discharge of poisonous waste amount.
2) it is based on investment decision index system, target is turned to comprehensive benefit maximum, constructs the investment decision of power grid project
Model, specifically:
2.1) according to the economic benefits indicator of investment decision index system, i.e. the investment construction cost of power grid project, Nian Yun
Cost and annual earnings etc. are sought, determines the net present value (NPV) NPV (X) of power grid project, i.e. the economic benefit function of power grid project:
Wherein, n is the total number of power grid project, and T is the life cycle of power grid project, CIitFor i-th of power grid project t
The power selling income in year, COitFor the operation cost of i-th of power grid project t, I is rate of return on investment, FCiFor i-th of power grid item
Fixed cost when mesh investment construction；xiFor dummy variable, the investment situation of i-th of power grid project is represented, if xi=1, then it represents that
Invest i-th of power grid project；If xi=0, then it represents that do not invest i-th of power grid project.
2.2) according to the social benefit index of investment decision index system, the outage cod of power grid project demands side is determined,
That is the social benefit function SC (X) of power grid project:
Wherein, ciFor to decision project installed capacity, c is existing project installed capacity, CueFor power grid maximum short of electricity at
This.
2.3) according to the environmental benefit index of investment decision index system, the environmental benefit function E of power grid project is determined
(X):
Wherein, m is the species number of exhaust emission gas, ρiThe mark coal that every degree electricity is saved is generated by i-th of power grid project
Amount, PjFor the discharge price of jth kind gas, γjThe jth kind contamination gas scale of construction discharged by one ton of mark coal of every consumption, WiIt is i-th
The annual electricity generating capacity of a power grid project, and:
Wherein, cos α is power factor (α=0.9 cos), tiFor the effective generating dutation of power grid project i.
2.4) power grid is determined according to the concept of capacity-load ratio according to the power transformation capacity consistency of each voltage class of power grid project
The reliability cost function P (X) of project:
Wherein, L is power supply area peak load, and γ, θ are the bound of capacity-load ratio under a certain voltage class, and α is power distribution network
Influence coefficient of the residual capacity to power grid enterprises, β are that influence coefficient of the power distribution network deficit power to power grid enterprises is target area
Network system main line average load.
2.5) target is turned to comprehensive benefit Z maximum, constructs the objective function maxZ of the investment decision model of power grid project:
MaxZ=NPV (X)+E (X)+SC (X)-P (X) (9)
2.6) determine the constraint condition that investment decision model needs to meet.
2.6.1) project mutual exclusion and subordinate constrain, it may be assumed that if policymaker cannot invest power grid project i and power grid project j simultaneously,
Then illustrate that there are mutex relations for the two power grid projects, then have:
xi+xj≤1 (10)
If policymaker must invest power grid project i when investing power grid project j, illustrate the two power grid projects exist from
Belong to constraint, then exist:
xi-xj≤0 (11)
2.6.2) capital scale constrains, it may be assumed that
Wherein, FCiFixed cost when building for i-th of power grid project investment, M are the gross investment amount of money upper limit.
According to the calculation process of genetic algorithm, capital scale constraint can also be indicated in the form of penalty function, and be introduced
Into the objective function of investment decision model, i.e., formula (12) is become into penalty function F (X):
Wherein, P is a maximum, so that the combination of power grid project or power grid project beyond capital scale constraint can not
Meet the objective function of investment decision model, it can be according to power grid project or the combined scale of investment and income feelings of power grid project
Condition determines its order of magnitude, such as P=10000000.
The then objective function maxZ of corresponding investment decision model are as follows:
MaxZ=NPV (X)+E (X)+SC (X)-P (X)-F (X) (14)
3) essential information of power grid project to be invested is obtained, wherein the essential information of power grid project includes power grid project
Cost of investment, year operation cost, annual earnings, capacity and ability of economizing on coal etc..
4) genetic algorithm is used, according to the essential information of the investment decision model of building and power grid project to be invested, is determined
Each power grid project to be invested is put into the investment decision mould of building by the combination of optimal power grid project or power grid project
Type, and solve investment decision model using genetic algorithm according to the essential information of the power grid project to be invested, select comprehensive effect
The combination of power grid project or power grid project beneficial maximum and that meet investment decision model constraint condition, wherein genetic algorithm is existing
There is method disclosed in technology, detailed process does not repeat herein.
Below by the validity and reality of the investment decision method of the specific embodiment power grid project that the present invention will be described in detail
Behaviour's property:
Somewhere grid company needs to plan investing money in developing for power grid project, determines to increase a collection of power grid project,
By the analysis assessment and the collection of related data to power grid project, after preliminary screening, 7 power grid projects enter alternative mesh
Record, concrete condition are as shown in table 1 below.7 power grid projects are 220kV voltage class, and the service life 25 years, and it is annual each during 25 years
Project annual net income and operation cost do not change；Total fund volume is constrained to 2.1 hundred million yuan；Rate of return on investment is 6%；Every year
Maximum outage cod is 200,000 yuan, and outage cod is directly proportional to amount of capacity；The sum of the capacity of selected power grid project is to be
It unites and increases capacity newly；Year effective generating dutation of each power grid project is 4000 hours；Every degree electricity is converted to mark coal by heat equivalent method
Measure 0.1229KG, it is assumed that thermoelectricity coal conservation is the 10% of electric power signature coefficient；Every one ton of mark coal of burning discharges carbon dioxide about 2.6
Ton, about 24 kilograms of sulfur dioxide, about 7 kilograms of nitrogen oxides.The following table 2 show power industry pollutant environmental value standard.It takes
The capacity-load ratio that the capacity-load ratio of 220kV is 1.811,110kV is 2.1, and the capacity-load ratio of low-voltage distribution network is set to 3:
Table 1: the basic condition of power grid project
Table 2: power industry pollutant environmental value standard
| Pollutant | Environmental value/(yuan/ton) |
| Carbon dioxide | 23 |
| Sulfur dioxide | 6000 |
| Nitrogen oxides | 8000 |
According to the base of the investment decision model of building, the constraint condition of investment decision model and above-mentioned 7 power grid projects
This information.Using genetic algorithm, solve investment decision model, obtain power grid project optimal Portfolio be power grid project 1,2,
3,4 and 7, the expection maximum return of power grid projects combo is 891356.2 ten thousand yuan.
Based on the investment decision method of above-mentioned power grid project, the present invention also provides a kind of investment decision systems of power grid project
System, comprising:
Investment decision index system establishment module, for analyzing the investment decision factor for influencing power grid project, structure
Build investment decision index system.
Investment decision model constructs module, for turning to target with comprehensive benefit maximum based on investment decision index system,
Construct the investment decision model of power grid project.
Essential information obtains module, for obtaining the essential information of power grid project to be invested.
Power grid project determining module, for using genetic algorithm, according to the investment decision model of building and power grid to be invested
The essential information of project determines the combination of optimal power grid project or power grid project.
The various embodiments described above are merely to illustrate the present invention, wherein the structure of each component, connection type and manufacture craft etc. are all
It can be varied, all equivalents and improvement carried out based on the technical solution of the present invention should not exclude
Except protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of investment decision method of power grid project, which is characterized in that including the following contents:
The investment decision factor for influencing power grid project is analyzed, investment decision index system is constructed；
Based on investment decision index system, target is turned to comprehensive benefit maximum, constructs the investment decision model of power grid project；
Obtain the essential information of power grid project to be invested；
It is determined optimal using genetic algorithm according to the essential information of the investment decision model of building and power grid project to be invested
The combination of power grid project or power grid project.
2. a kind of investment decision method of power grid project as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the investment decision index
System includes economic benefits indicator, social benefit index and environmental benefit index, wherein the economic benefits indicator includes finance
Status index and assets utilization efficiency index, the financial situation index include investment construction cost, year O&M cost, annual earnings
And rate of return on investment, the assets utilization efficiency index includes capacity-load ratio.
3. a kind of investment decision method of power grid project as claimed in claim 2, which is characterized in that be based on investment decision index
System turns to target with comprehensive benefit maximum, constructs the investment decision model of power grid project, detailed process are as follows:
According to investment decision index system, the economic benefit function, social benefit function and environmental benefit letter of power grid project are determined
Number；
According to the power transformation capacity consistency of each voltage class of power grid project, the reliability cost function of power grid project is determined；
Target is turned to comprehensive benefit maximum, constructs the objective function of the investment decision model of power grid project；
Determine the constraint condition that investment decision model needs to meet.
4. a kind of investment decision method of power grid project as claimed in claim 3, which is characterized in that according to investment decision index
System determines the economic benefit function, social benefit function and environmental benefit function of power grid project, detailed process are as follows:
1. determining the economic benefit function NPV (X) of power grid project according to the economic benefits indicator of investment decision index system:
Wherein, n is the total number of power grid project, and T is the life cycle of power grid project, CIitFor i-th power grid project t's
Power selling income, COitFor the operation cost of i-th of power grid project t, I is rate of return on investment, FCiIt is thrown for i-th of power grid project
Fixed cost when money construction；xiFor dummy variable, the investment situation of i-th of power grid project is represented, if xi=1, then it represents that investment
I-th of power grid project；If xi=0, then it represents that do not invest i-th of power grid project；
2. determining the social benefit function SC (X) of power grid project according to the social benefit index of investment decision index system:
Wherein, ciFor to decision project installed capacity, c is existing project installed capacity, CueFor the maximum outage cod of power grid；
3. determining the environmental benefit function E (X) of power grid project according to the environmental benefit index of investment decision index system:
Wherein, m is the species number of exhaust emission gas, ρiThe mark coal amount that every degree electricity is saved, P are generated by i-th of power grid projectj
For the discharge price of jth kind gas, γjThe jth kind contamination gas scale of construction discharged by one ton of mark coal of every consumption, WiFor i-th of power grid
The annual electricity generating capacity of project, and:
Wherein, cos α is power factor, tiFor year effective generating dutation of i-th of power grid project.
5. a kind of investment decision method of power grid project as claimed in claim 4, which is characterized in that the power grid project can
By property cost function are as follows:
Wherein, P (X) is the reliability cost function of power grid project, and α is influence system of the power distribution network residual capacity to power grid enterprises
Number, β are that influence coefficient of the power distribution network deficit power to power grid enterprises is target area network system main line average load, and L is to supply
Electric region peak load, γ, θ are the bound of capacity-load ratio under a certain voltage class.
6. a kind of investment decision method of power grid project as claimed in claim 5, which is characterized in that the investment decision model
Constraint condition include:
A) project mutual exclusion and subordinate constrain
If policymaker cannot invest power grid project i and power grid project j simultaneously, there are mutex relations for the two power grid projects, then deposit
:
xi+xj≤1
If policymaker must invest power grid project i when investing power grid project j, there are subordinate constraints for the two power grid projects, then
In the presence of:
xi-xj≤0
B) capital scale constrains:
Wherein, FCiFixed cost when building for i-th of power grid project investment, M are the gross investment amount of money upper limit.
7. a kind of investment decision method of power grid project as claimed in claim 6, which is characterized in that the throwing of the power grid project
Provide the objective function of decision model are as follows:
MaxZ=NPV (X)+E (X)+SC (X)-P (X)
Wherein, maxZ is the objective function of the investment decision model of power grid project.
8. a kind of investment decision method of power grid project as claimed in claim 5, which is characterized in that the investment decision model
Constraint condition include:
A) project mutual exclusion and subordinate constrain
If policymaker cannot invest power grid project i and power grid project j simultaneously, there are mutex relations for the two power grid projects, then deposit
:
xi+xj≤1
If policymaker must invest power grid project i when investing power grid project j, there are subordinate constraints for the two power grid projects, then
In the presence of:
xi-xj≤0
B) capital scale constrains, and is indicated using penalty function F (X):
Wherein, P is a maximum, so that the combination of power grid project or power grid project beyond capital scale constraint is unable to satisfy
The objective function of investment decision model；FCiFixed cost when building for i-th of power grid project investment, M are on the gross investment amount of money
Limit.
9. a kind of investment decision method of power grid project as claimed in claim 8, which is characterized in that the throwing of the power grid project
Provide the objective function of decision model are as follows:
MaxZ=NPV (X)+E (X)+SC (X)-P (X)-F (X)
Wherein, maxZ is the objective function of the investment decision model of power grid project.
10. a kind of decision support system of power grid project characterized by comprising
Investment decision index system establishment module, for analyzing the investment decision factor for influencing power grid project, building is thrown
Provide decision-making index system；
Investment decision model constructs module, for being based on investment decision index system, turns to target with comprehensive benefit maximum, constructs
The investment decision model of power grid project；
Essential information obtains module, for obtaining the essential information of power grid project to be invested；
Power grid project determining module, for using genetic algorithm, according to the investment decision model of building and power grid project to be invested
Essential information, determine the combination of optimal power grid project or power grid project.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201910039454.2A CN109784725A (en) | 2019-01-16 | 2019-01-16 | A kind of investment decision method and system of power grid project |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201910039454.2A CN109784725A (en) | 2019-01-16 | 2019-01-16 | A kind of investment decision method and system of power grid project |
Publications (1)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN109784725A true CN109784725A (en) | 2019-05-21 |
Family
ID=66500712
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201910039454.2A Pending CN109784725A (en) | 2019-01-16 | 2019-01-16 | A kind of investment decision method and system of power grid project |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN109784725A (en) |
Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111027831A (en) * | 2019-11-28 | 2020-04-17 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | Investment decision method and system based on economic evaluation model |
| CN113537601A (en) * | 2021-07-20 | 2021-10-22 | 中国石油大学(华东) | Distributed photovoltaic investment decision optimization method and system |
| CN114638393A (en) * | 2021-11-18 | 2022-06-17 | 国网天津市电力公司 | Neural network-based power grid investment decision evaluation method and device |
| CN116823044A (en) * | 2023-06-26 | 2023-09-29 | 国网江苏省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Construction decision method, device and equipment of transformer substation and storage medium |
| CN117252707A (en) * | 2023-11-14 | 2023-12-19 | 国网吉林省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Power grid project investment optimization method and device |
-
2019
- 2019-01-16 CN CN201910039454.2A patent/CN109784725A/en active Pending
Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111027831A (en) * | 2019-11-28 | 2020-04-17 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | Investment decision method and system based on economic evaluation model |
| CN113537601A (en) * | 2021-07-20 | 2021-10-22 | 中国石油大学(华东) | Distributed photovoltaic investment decision optimization method and system |
| CN114638393A (en) * | 2021-11-18 | 2022-06-17 | 国网天津市电力公司 | Neural network-based power grid investment decision evaluation method and device |
| CN116823044A (en) * | 2023-06-26 | 2023-09-29 | 国网江苏省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Construction decision method, device and equipment of transformer substation and storage medium |
| CN117252707A (en) * | 2023-11-14 | 2023-12-19 | 国网吉林省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Power grid project investment optimization method and device |
| CN117252707B (en) * | 2023-11-14 | 2024-02-09 | 国网吉林省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Power grid project investment optimization method and device |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN109784725A (en) | A kind of investment decision method and system of power grid project | |
| Abadie et al. | European CO2 prices and carbon capture investments | |
| Franki et al. | Energy security, policy and technology in South East Europe: Presenting and applying an energy security index to Croatia | |
| CN108256723B (en) | Economic benefit evaluation method for accessing coal-to-electricity into power grid and terminal equipment | |
| CN107871214A (en) | One kind is provided multiple forms of energy to complement each other energy supplying system System of Comprehensive Evaluation method for building up | |
| Yuan et al. | Will recent boom in coal power lead to a bust in China? A micro-economic analysis | |
| Streimikiene et al. | Electricity market opening impact on investments in electricity sector | |
| Davidson | Creating markets for wind electricity in China: case studies in energy policy and regulation | |
| Dehghan et al. | A system dynamics model to analyze future electricity supply and demand in Iran under alternative pricing policies | |
| Koltsaklis et al. | An optimization model for integrated portfolio management in wholesale and retail power markets | |
| KR100690088B1 (en) | Web-based demand side management evaluation system for analysing cost effect in the electric power industry | |
| Upreti et al. | Challenges of India's power transmission system | |
| Terrier et al. | From Local Energy Communities towards National Energy System: A Grid-Aware Techno-Economic Analysis | |
| Zhu et al. | Structural distortion and the shortage of peak-load power resources in China: A screening curve approach and case study of Shandong Province | |
| Kessides et al. | Current and forthcoming issues in the South African electricity sector | |
| Denjean et al. | Subsidies to coal power generation in China | |
| Wu et al. | The research on performance management for new energy project oriented company based on information system in China | |
| Niu et al. | Credit development strategy of China's banking industry to the electric power industry | |
| Liu et al. | Research on the principles and strategies of power grid investment under the new situation of power industry reform | |
| Esmaeili et al. | The effect of ratio-based incentive on wind capacity development and investment risk of wind units: A system dynamics approach | |
| Bataev et al. | Public-private partnership as a mechanism for the development of heat supply | |
| Marquard et al. | Costing a 2020 target of 15% renewable electricity for South Africa-Final Draft | |
| Trinh et al. | Low carbon scenario for the power sector of Vietnam: Externality and comparison approach | |
| Swora | Intelligent grid: unfinished regulation in the third EU energy package | |
| Drobyazko et al. | Formation of the intelligent energy system based on digital technologies in urban management |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication | ||
| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication |
Application publication date: 20190521 |