CN110532638B - Gas power plant power generation cost measuring and calculating method based on production data mining - Google Patents

Gas power plant power generation cost measuring and calculating method based on production data mining Download PDF

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CN110532638B
CN110532638B CN201910718101.5A CN201910718101A CN110532638B CN 110532638 B CN110532638 B CN 110532638B CN 201910718101 A CN201910718101 A CN 201910718101A CN 110532638 B CN110532638 B CN 110532638B
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胡佳
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Guangzhou Huidian Cloud Internet Technology Co ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for measuring and calculating the power generation cost of a gas power plant based on production data mining, which comprises the following steps: acquiring a power plant fixed cost value of a time period corresponding to calculated data used by power supply cost, environmental protection total cost and total cost of desalted water in production, unit price of natural gas and SIS point table data of a power plant; respectively establishing a power supply gas consumption model according to different working conditions of the unit, and substituting the data of the power plant SIS point table into the power supply gas consumption model to calculate to obtain a power supply gas consumption value; establishing a fuel cost calculation model, and substituting the natural gas unit price and the power supply gas consumption value into the fuel cost calculation model to calculate to obtain a fuel cost value; summing the fuel cost value, the environmental protection total cost and the total cost of the desalted water in the production process to obtain a variation cost value; and adding the variable cost value and the power plant fixed cost value to obtain a total cost value, calculating the total cost value by a least square method to obtain total power supply cost curves of different temperature clusters, and deriving the total power supply cost curves to obtain a marginal cost curve.

Description

Gas power plant power generation cost measuring and calculating method based on production data mining
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of cost measurement and calculation, in particular to a method for measuring and calculating the power generation cost of a gas power plant based on production data mining.
Background
The power plants provide energy for society through power generation and energy generation, and the power generation energy part in China generates power through gas at the present stage, so that the daily combustion amount of the gas power plants for power generation is very large. The domestic power generation cost calculation method for the gas power plant only calculates expenditure data to obtain the total price of the power generation cost in a billing mode, but partial expenditure accounts can be used for operation or other aspects, or partial expenditure accounts can be offset through material exchange and cannot be accounted, so that the current domestic gas power plant power generation cost calculation data has a non-negligible error.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method for measuring and calculating power generation cost of a gas power plant based on production data mining, which is characterized in that a fuel cost value is calculated through natural gas unit price and power plant SIS point table data, a variation cost value is calculated through combining environmental protection total cost and total cost of desalted water in the production process, and finally total power supply cost is calculated through combining a fixed cost value of the power plant, so that the technical problems that the method for calculating the total power supply cost of the gas power plant in the prior art is single in structure and cannot accurately calculate the power generation cost are solved, the power supply cost is comprehensively and accurately calculated, and calculation errors of cost data are eliminated.
In order to solve the technical problem, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for measuring and calculating power generation cost of a gas power plant based on production data mining, including:
acquiring a power plant fixed cost value of a time period corresponding to calculated data used by power supply cost, environmental protection total cost and total cost of desalted water in the production process, natural gas unit price and power plant SIS point table data;
respectively establishing power supply gas consumption models according to different working conditions of the units, and substituting the power plant SIS point table data into the power supply gas consumption models to calculate to obtain power supply gas consumption values;
establishing a fuel cost calculation model, and substituting the natural gas unit price and the power supply gas consumption value into the fuel cost calculation model to calculate and obtain a fuel cost value;
adding and summing the fuel cost value, the environmental protection total cost and the total cost of the desalted water in the production process to obtain a variation cost value;
and adding and summing the variable cost value and the fixed cost value of the power plant to obtain a total cost value, calculating the total cost value through a least square method to obtain total power supply cost curves of different temperature clusters, and deriving the total power supply cost curves to obtain a marginal cost curve.
As a preferred scheme, the SIS point table data of the power plant comprises a unit name, an ambient temperature, an actual heat supply amount, an actual output, an air input amount, the combined cycle power generation heat efficiency, a fuel gas heat value and a low-pressure heat supply steam enthalpy value.
As a preferred scheme, the respectively establishing power supply and gas consumption models according to different working conditions of the unit comprises:
when the working condition of the unit is a pure condensation working condition or the working condition of the unit is a heat supply working condition and a heat supply parameter actual measurement curve of a power plant is not obtained, establishing a power supply gas consumption model as follows:
b g =Q*η
wherein, b g : a power supply gas consumption value; q: an air intake amount; η: and (4) generating heat efficiency by combined cycle.
As a preferred scheme, the respectively establishing power supply and gas consumption models according to different working conditions of the unit comprises:
when the unit working condition is a heat supply working condition and a heat supply parameter actual measurement curve of a power plant is obtained, establishing a power supply gas consumption model as follows:
Figure BDA0002156164270000021
wherein, b g : a power supply gas consumption value; q: an air intake amount; s: a heat supply curve function; h: an enthalpy value; g: a calorific value.
As a preferred scheme, the method comprises the steps of respectively establishing power supply gas consumption models according to different working conditions of the unit, substituting the power plant SIS point table data into the power supply gas consumption models to calculate power supply gas consumption values, and comprises the following steps:
respectively establishing power supply gas consumption models according to different working conditions of units, clustering the SIS point table data of the power plant by taking temperature as a characteristic, and substituting the clustered data into the power supply gas consumption models to calculate to obtain power supply gas consumption values;
establishing a unit gas consumption model, clustering the SIS point table data of the power plant by taking temperature as a characteristic, and substituting the power supply gas consumption value into the unit gas consumption model to calculate to obtain a unit gas consumption value;
and respectively fitting corresponding quadratic functions by using the power supply gas consumption value and the unit gas consumption value as dependent variables and the unit output value as independent variables through the least square method to obtain power supply gas consumption curves and unit gas consumption curves of different temperature clusters.
Preferably, the unit gas model is:
Figure BDA0002156164270000031
wherein:
Figure BDA0002156164270000032
a unit gas consumption value; b g : a power supply gas consumption value; o: and (5) generating unit output.
Preferably, the fuel cost calculation model is as follows:
P u =b g *p
wherein, P u : a fuel cost value; b is a mixture of g : a power supply gas consumption value; p: natural gas is monovalent.
Preferably, after the establishing a fuel cost calculation model and calculating a fuel cost value by substituting the natural gas unit price and the power supply gas consumption value into the fuel cost calculation model, the method further includes:
establishing a degree electric fuel cost calculation model, and substituting the natural gas unit price and the unit gas consumption value into the degree electric fuel cost calculation model to calculate and obtain a degree electric fuel cost value;
and respectively fitting corresponding quadratic functions by using the fuel cost value and the electric fuel cost value as dependent variables and the unit output value as independent variables through least square method calculation to obtain fuel cost curves and electric fuel cost curves of different temperature clusters.
Preferably, the calculation model of the fuel cost of the fuel is as follows:
Figure BDA0002156164270000033
wherein,
Figure BDA0002156164270000034
a degree electric fuel cost value;
Figure BDA0002156164270000035
A unit gas consumption value; p: skyThe natural gas is monovalent.
Preferably, after summing the fuel cost value, the environmental protection total cost and the total cost of the demineralized water in the production process to obtain a variation cost value, the method further comprises: and calculating and fitting a corresponding quadratic function by using the variation cost value as a dependent variable and a unit output value as an independent variable through a least square method to obtain variation cost curves of different temperature clusters.
Compared with the prior art, the embodiment of the invention has the following beneficial effects:
according to the invention, the fuel cost value is calculated through natural gas unit price and power plant SIS point table data, the variation cost value is calculated by combining the environmental protection total cost and the total desalted water cost in the production process, and the total power supply cost is calculated by combining the fixed cost value of the power plant, so that the technical problems that the method for calculating the total power supply cost by the gas power plant in the prior art is single in structure and the power generation cost cannot be accurately calculated are solved, the power supply cost is comprehensively and accurately calculated, and the calculation error of the cost data is eliminated.
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FIG. 1: the structure schematic diagram of the method for measuring and calculating the power generation cost of the gas power plant in the embodiment of the invention is shown;
FIG. 2: the principle schematic diagram of the method for measuring and calculating the power generation cost of the gas power plant in the embodiment of the invention is shown.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1 and 2, a preferred embodiment of the present invention provides a method for calculating power generation cost of a gas power plant based on production data mining, including:
s1, acquiring a power plant fixed cost value in a time period corresponding to calculation data used by power supply cost, environmental protection total cost and total cost of desalted water in a production process, natural gas unit price and power plant SIS point table data; in this embodiment, the power plant SIS point table data includes unit name, ambient temperature, actual heat supply capacity, actual output, air input, combined cycle power generation thermal efficiency, gas heating value and low pressure heat supply steam enthalpy value.
S2, respectively establishing power supply gas consumption models according to different working conditions of the unit, and substituting the power plant SIS point table data into the power supply gas consumption models to calculate to obtain power supply gas consumption values; in this embodiment, the step S2 includes: s21, respectively establishing power supply gas consumption models according to different working conditions of the units, clustering the SIS point table data of the power plant by taking temperature as a characteristic, and substituting the clustered data into the power supply gas consumption models to calculate to obtain power supply gas consumption values; s22, establishing a unit gas consumption model, clustering the SIS point table data of the power plant by taking temperature as a characteristic, and substituting the power supply gas consumption value into the unit gas consumption model to calculate to obtain a unit gas consumption value; and S23, respectively fitting corresponding quadratic functions by using the power supply gas consumption value and the unit gas consumption value as dependent variables and the unit output value as independent variables through least square method calculation to obtain power supply gas consumption curves and unit gas consumption curves of different temperature clusters.
In this embodiment, the respectively establishing power supply gas consumption models according to different working conditions of the unit includes: when the working condition of the unit is a pure condensing working condition or the working condition of the unit is a heat supply working condition and a heat supply parameter actual measurement curve of a power plant is not obtained, establishing a power supply and consumption model as follows:
b g =Q*η
wherein, b g : a power supply gas consumption value; q: an air intake amount; eta: and (4) generating heat efficiency by combined cycle.
In this embodiment, the respectively establishing power supply gas consumption models according to different working conditions of the unit includes: when the unit working condition is a heat supply working condition and a heat supply parameter actual measurement curve of a power plant is obtained, establishing a power supply gas consumption model as follows:
Figure BDA0002156164270000051
wherein, b g : a power supply gas consumption value; q: an air intake amount; s: a heat supply curve function; h: an enthalpy value; g: a calorific value.
In this embodiment, the unit gas model is:
Figure BDA0002156164270000052
wherein:
Figure BDA0002156164270000053
a unit gas consumption value; b is a mixture of g : a power supply gas consumption value; o: and (5) generating unit output.
S3, establishing a fuel cost calculation model, and substituting the natural gas unit price and the power supply gas consumption value into the fuel cost calculation model to calculate and obtain a fuel cost value; in this embodiment, after the establishing a fuel cost calculation model and calculating a fuel cost value by substituting the natural gas unit price and the power supply gas consumption value into the fuel cost calculation model, the method further includes: establishing a degree electric fuel cost calculation model, and substituting the natural gas unit price and the unit gas consumption value into the degree electric fuel cost calculation model to calculate a degree electric fuel cost value; and respectively fitting corresponding quadratic functions by using the fuel cost value and the electric fuel cost value as dependent variables and the unit output value as independent variables through least square method calculation to obtain fuel cost curves and electric fuel cost curves of different temperature clusters.
In this embodiment, the fuel cost calculation model is:
P u =b g *p
wherein, P u : a fuel cost value; b g : a power supply gas consumption value; p: natural gas is monovalent.
In this embodiment, the calculation model of the electric fuel cost is:
Figure BDA0002156164270000061
wherein,
Figure BDA0002156164270000062
measuring an electrical fuel cost value;
Figure BDA0002156164270000063
A unit gas consumption value; p: natural gas is monovalent.
S4, adding and summing the fuel cost value, the environmental protection total cost and the total cost of the desalted water in the production process to obtain a variation cost value; in this embodiment, after summing the fuel cost value, the total cost of the environmental protection and the total cost of the demineralized water in the production process to obtain a variation cost value, the method further includes: and calculating and fitting a corresponding quadratic function by using the variation cost value as a dependent variable and a unit output value as an independent variable through a least square method to obtain variation cost curves of different temperature clusters.
And S5, adding and summing the variable cost value and the fixed cost value of the power plant to obtain a total cost value, calculating the total cost value through a least square method to obtain total power supply cost curves of different temperature clusters, and deriving the total power supply cost curves to obtain a marginal cost curve.
According to the method, a fuel cost value is calculated through natural gas unit price and power plant SIS point table data, a variation cost value is calculated by combining environmental protection total cost and total desalted water cost in the production process, and finally, a total power supply cost is calculated by combining a fixed cost value of a power plant, so that the technical problems that the method for calculating the total power supply cost of the gas power plant in the prior art is single in structure and cannot accurately calculate the power generation cost are solved, the power supply cost is comprehensively and accurately calculated, and calculation errors of cost data are eliminated.
The present invention will be described in detail with reference to specific examples.
Firstly, the input data specifically includes:
the method comprises the following steps of (1) power plant SIS point table data (unit name, ambient temperature (DEG C)), actual heat supply amount (t/h), actual output (MW), air input amount (m 3/h), combined cycle power generation heat efficiency (%), gas heat value (MJ/m 3), low-pressure heat supply steam enthalpy value (Gj/t) and natural gas unit price (yuan/m 3));
the changing cost of the financial entry of the power plant (the expense of the demineralized water, the expense of environmental protection);
power plant fixed cost power split amount (power plant financial input).
Outputting data: a power supply gas consumption curve and a unit gas consumption curve; a power supply fuel cost curve and a kilowatt-hour fuel cost curve; a cost variation curve; marginal cost curve.
Introduction of an algorithm:
1. selecting power supply cost by a user to calculate historical data starting time, defaulting to last overhaul time, and setting the cutoff time to D-1 day;
2. the combined cycle unit is divided into two working conditions: the method comprises the following steps of (1) a pure condensation working condition and a heat supply working condition, wherein the pure condensation working condition means that a unit only generates electricity and does not supply heat; the heat supply working condition refers to that the combined cycle unit needs to generate electricity and supply heat; and respectively calculating the gas consumption value and the unit gas consumption value.
Pure condensation working condition: gas consumption b g (m 3 /h):
b g =Q*η
Pure condensation working condition: unit gas consumption
Figure BDA0002156164270000071
(m 3 /MWh):
Figure BDA0002156164270000072
Description of the parameters: q: intake air amount, m 3 H; eta: combined cycle power generation thermal efficiency (%); o: unit output (MW).
Using Kmeans to cluster the original data by taking temperature as characteristic, and calculating gas consumption data b corresponding to the data g And
Figure BDA0002156164270000073
using least square method, obtain gas consumption curve [ gas consumption (m) of different temperature clusters 3 H) -output force (MW)]And unit gas consumption curve [ unit gas consumption (m) 3 /MWh) -force out (MW)]。
And (3) heating working conditions: under the working condition of heat supply, two cost calculation methods exist, and the cost calculation method depends on whether a power plant obtains a heat supply parameter actual measurement curve [ a heat supply value (t/h) -an output (MW) ] of a cogeneration unit.
a, if a power plant provides a heat supply parameter actual measurement curve and requires to carry out cost measurement according to the curve, fitting the heat supply parameter actual measurement curve (a secondary curve) by using a least square method or using a curve function y = f (x) provided by a user;
gas consumption b g (m 3 /h):
Figure BDA0002156164270000074
Unit gas consumption
Figure BDA0002156164270000075
(m 3 /MWh):
Figure BDA0002156164270000076
Description of the parameters: q: intake air quantity (m) 3 H); s: a heat supply curve function is used for obtaining the heat supply amount (t/h) corresponding to the output force; h: enthalpy (Gj/t); g: calorific value (MJ/m) 3 ) (ii) a O: unit output (MW).
Clustering the original data by Kmeans with the temperature as the characteristic, and calculating the gas consumption b corresponding to each temperature interval g And
Figure BDA0002156164270000081
using least square method, obtaining gas consumption curve [ gas consumption (m) of different temperature clusters 3 H) -output (MW)]And unit gas consumption curve [ unit gas consumption (m) ] 3 /MWh) -force out (MW)]。
b, if the power plant does not provide a heat supply parameter actual measurement curve, or does not require to carry out cost measurement according to the curve; gas consumption b g (m 3 /h):
b g =Q*η
Unit gas consumption
Figure BDA0002156164270000082
(m 3 /MWh):
Figure BDA0002156164270000083
Description of the parameters: q: intake air amount, m 3 H; eta: combined cycle power generation thermal efficiency (%); o: unit output (MW).
Using Kmeans to cluster the original data by taking temperature as a characteristic, and calculating gas consumption data b corresponding to the data g And
Figure BDA0002156164270000084
using least square method, obtain gas consumption curve [ gas consumption (m) of different temperature clusters 3 H) -output (MW)]And unit gas consumption curve [ unit gas consumption (m) 3 /MWh) -force out (MW)]。
3. And calculating the fuel cost. Wherein the natural gas has a unit price of p (yuan/m) 3 )。
Fuel cost calculation P u (yuan/h):
P u =b g *p
electric fuel cost calculation
Figure BDA0002156164270000085
(Yuan/MWh):
Figure BDA0002156164270000086
using a least squares method, a fuel cost curve [ fuel cost (yuan/h) -output (MW) ] and a degree electric fuel cost curve [ degree electric fuel cost (yuan/MWh) -output (MW) ] of different temperature clusters are obtained.
4. Change cost calculation P Become (Yuan/MWh):
P become =P u +P Water (W) +P Ring (C)
P u : cost of fuel, P Ring (C) : environmental Total cost, P Water (W) : the total cost of the demineralized water.
Using a least squares method, a cost-to-variation curve [ cost of fuel (yuan/MWh) -force of output (MW) ] is obtained for the different temperature clusters.
5. Calculating the total power supply cost:
P general assembly =P Become +P Fixing
Obtaining a total power supply cost curve [ total power supply cost (yuan/MWh) -output (MW) ] of different temperature clusters by using a least square method; and (4) deriving the total power supply cost curve to obtain a marginal cost curve (marginal cost (yuan/MWh) -output (MW)).
According to the invention, the power generation cost of the power plant under different working conditions is calculated by using a data mining tool according to the production data of the SIS (Safety instrumentation System) of the power plant.
The above-mentioned embodiments are provided to further explain the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention in detail, and it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are only examples of the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. It should be understood that any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like, which come within the spirit and principle of the invention, may occur to those skilled in the art and are intended to be included within the scope of the invention.

Claims (10)

1. A method for measuring and calculating power generation cost of a gas power plant based on production data mining is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring a power plant fixed cost value of a time period corresponding to calculated data used by power supply cost, environmental protection total cost and total cost of desalted water in the production process, natural gas unit price and power plant SIS point table data; the system comprises a power plant SIS point table data and a power plant safety instrument system point table data, wherein the power plant SIS point table data is power plant safety instrument system point table data;
respectively establishing power supply gas consumption models according to different working conditions of the units, and substituting the power plant SIS point table data into the power supply gas consumption models to calculate to obtain power supply gas consumption values;
establishing a fuel cost calculation model, and substituting the natural gas unit price and the power supply gas consumption value into the fuel cost calculation model to calculate and obtain a fuel cost value;
adding and summing the fuel cost value, the environmental protection total cost and the total cost of the desalted water in the production process to obtain a variation cost value;
and adding and summing the variable cost value and the fixed cost value of the power plant to obtain a total cost value, calculating the total cost value through a least square method to obtain total power supply cost curves of different temperature clusters, and deriving the total power supply cost curves to obtain a marginal cost curve.
2. The gas power plant power generation cost estimation method based on production data mining of claim 1, wherein the power plant SIS point table data includes unit name, ambient temperature, actual heat supply amount, actual output, air input amount, combined cycle power generation thermal efficiency, gas combustion heat value and low pressure heat supply steam enthalpy value.
3. The method for calculating the power generation cost of the gas power plant based on the production data mining as claimed in claim 1, wherein the establishing the power supply and gas consumption models respectively according to different working conditions of the units comprises:
when the working condition of the unit is a pure condensing working condition or the working condition of the unit is a heat supply working condition and a heat supply parameter actual measurement curve of a power plant is not obtained, establishing a power supply and consumption model as follows:
b g =Q*η
wherein, b g : a power supply gas consumption value; q: an air intake amount; η: and (4) generating heat efficiency by combined cycle.
4. The method for measuring and calculating the power generation cost of the gas power plant based on the production data mining, according to claim 1, wherein the step of establishing the power supply and gas consumption models respectively according to different working conditions of the units comprises the following steps:
when the unit working condition is a heat supply working condition and a heat supply parameter actual measurement curve of a power plant is obtained, establishing a power supply gas consumption model as follows:
Figure QLYQS_1
wherein, b g : a power supply gas consumption value; q: an air intake amount; s: a heat supply curve function; h: an enthalpy value; g: a calorific value; o: and (5) generating unit output.
5. The method for measuring and calculating the power generation cost of the gas power plant based on the production data mining as claimed in claim 2, wherein the step of respectively establishing a power supply gas consumption model according to different working conditions of the unit and calculating a power supply gas consumption value by substituting the plant SIS point table data into the power supply gas consumption model comprises the steps of:
respectively establishing power supply gas consumption models according to different working conditions of the units, clustering the SIS point table data of the power plant by taking temperature as a characteristic, and substituting the clustering result into the power supply gas consumption models to calculate to obtain power supply gas consumption values;
establishing a unit gas consumption model, clustering the SIS point table data of the power plant by taking temperature as a characteristic, and substituting the power supply gas consumption value into the unit gas consumption model to calculate to obtain a unit gas consumption value;
and respectively fitting corresponding quadratic functions by using the power supply gas consumption value and the unit gas consumption value as dependent variables and the unit output value as independent variables through the least square method to obtain power supply gas consumption curves and unit gas consumption curves of different temperature clusters.
6. The production data mining-based gas plant power generation cost estimation method of claim 5, wherein the unit gas consumption model is:
Figure QLYQS_2
wherein:
Figure QLYQS_3
a unit gas consumption value; b g : a power supply gas consumption value; o: and (5) generating unit output.
7. The production data mining-based gas plant power generation cost estimation method of claim 1, wherein the fuel cost calculation model is:
P u =b g *p
wherein, P u : a fuel cost value; b is a mixture of g : a power supply gas consumption value; p: natural gas is monovalent.
8. The method for estimating power generation cost of a gas power plant based on production data mining of claim 5, wherein after establishing a fuel cost calculation model and calculating a fuel cost value by substituting the natural gas unit price and the power supply gas consumption value into the fuel cost calculation model, the method further comprises:
establishing a degree electric fuel cost calculation model, and substituting the natural gas unit price and the unit gas consumption value into the degree electric fuel cost calculation model to calculate and obtain a degree electric fuel cost value;
and respectively fitting corresponding quadratic functions by using the fuel cost value and the degree electric fuel cost value as dependent variables and the unit output value as independent variables through the least square method to obtain fuel cost curves and degree electric fuel cost curves of different temperature clusters.
9. The gas power plant power generation cost estimation method based on production data mining of claim 8, wherein the electricity-degree fuel cost calculation model is:
Figure QLYQS_4
wherein,
Figure QLYQS_5
measuring an electrical fuel cost value;
Figure QLYQS_6
A unit gas consumption value; p: natural gas is monovalent.
10. The production data mining-based gas plant power generation cost estimation method of claim 1, wherein after summing the fuel cost value, the total eco-cost and total demineralized water cost in the production process to obtain a variation cost value, the method further comprises: and calculating and fitting a corresponding quadratic function by using the variation cost value as a dependent variable and a unit output value as an independent variable through a least square method to obtain variation cost curves of different temperature clusters.
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