CN113486521A - Economic benefit calculation method for replacing small coal-fired power plant by fuel cell power plant - Google Patents
Economic benefit calculation method for replacing small coal-fired power plant by fuel cell power plant Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for calculating economic benefit of a fuel cell power station instead of a small coal-fired power plant, which comprises the following steps: respectively extracting cost model parameter information of the small coal-fired power plant and the fuel cell power plant in a project period and fitting the cost model parameter information to obtain a time curve of each parameter; calculating to obtain the power installed intervals of the fuel cell and the energy storage cell and the actual fuel consumption under each installed strategy according to the load characteristic curve of the small coal-fired power plant; substituting cost parameters in the cost models of the small coal-fired power plant and the battery power station into time values to respectively obtain the average annual cost of the small coal-fired power plant and the battery power station in respective project periods; and subtracting cost models of the small coal-fired power plant and the fuel cell power plant to obtain the economic benefit of the alternative scheme. The method considers the time value of each cost, can calculate the economic benefit of the alternative scheme under different strategies every year in several years, and provides an effective method for calculating the economic benefit of a fuel cell power station to replace a small coal-fired power plant.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of fuel cell power generation, in particular to an economic benefit calculation method for a fuel cell power station to replace a small coal-fired power plant.
Background
With the increase of the ecological environment protection, the national emission standards of atmospheric pollutants, water body pollutants and the like emitted by coal and electricity are continuously getting stricter, structural adjustment is implemented on the coal and electricity, and China continues to implement shutdown policies on small coal-fired thermal power units with low coal-fired efficiency and high pollution emission, and then generates a plurality of problems such as re-employment, equipment treatment, vacant land idling and the like. The scheme of replacing a small coal-fired power plant by a pollution-free fuel cell power plant is proposed, but the engineering experience is still insufficient because no substantial engineering exists in China.
At present, domestic related research results and reports are roughly divided into two types: one is a static cost substitution calculation method, namely dividing the equipment purchase cost of the original small coal-fired power plant by the age limit, adding the equipment maintenance cost, the coal-fired cost, the annual coal-fired quantity and the environmental management cost to obtain the annual net present value of the original scheme, dividing the fuel cell equipment purchase cost of the fuel cell power station by the service life, the equipment maintenance cost, the fuel cost, the energy storage cell equipment purchase cost by the service life and the energy storage cell equipment maintenance cost by the addition to obtain the annual net present value of the alternative scheme, and subtracting the two to obtain the annual net present value after substitution; the other type is a dynamic cost substitution calculation method, namely substituting all the costs in the engineering age of the small coal-fired power plant into the discount rate and then adding the cost, dividing the cost by the age, substituting all the costs in the engineering age of the fuel cell power plant into the discount rate and then adding the cost, dividing the cost by the age, and subtracting the cost and the discount rate to obtain the net current value of the year.
The prior method has the following defects: the waste of resources due to the decrease in the power generation efficiency of the fuel cell at the non-rated load is not considered. The invention adopts a cost-benefit method to calculate the economical efficiency of the alternative scheme, uses the absolute economic benefit index as the investigation basis, establishes the benefit model of the scheme, determines the parameters in the model according to the prediction model of the actual power generation curve, the energy storage cell cost, the hydrogen energy cost and the fuel cell production cost, analyzes and calculates the optimal combination of the capacities of the fuel cell and the energy storage cell under different conditions, and the economic benefit of the alternative scheme compared with the original scheme.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method for calculating economic benefit of a fuel cell power station instead of a small-sized coal-fired power plant, and aims to solve the problem that in the project of replacing the small-sized coal-fired power plant by the fuel cell power station, the cost is influenced by resource waste caused by reduction of the power generation efficiency of a fuel cell under the condition of non-rated load, so that the cost is unreasonably calculated.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a method for calculating economic efficiency of a fuel cell power plant instead of a small-sized coal-fired power plant, comprising the steps of:
1) respectively extracting cost model parameter information of the small coal-fired power plant and the fuel cell power plant in a respective engineering period, and acquiring equipment purchase cost, equipment service life, equipment maintenance cost, coal combustion cost, annual coal combustion amount and environmental management cost of the small coal-fired power plant; acquiring fuel cell equipment purchase cost, equipment service life, equipment maintenance cost, fuel cost, energy storage cell equipment purchase cost and energy storage cell equipment maintenance cost of a fuel cell power station;
2) fitting each parameter in the model to obtain a relation curve of the cost of each parameter and time, collecting the prices of each cost parameter in the past year, and fitting the prices by using a function according with the trend to obtain a price function according with the change trend;
3) dividing parameters in the cost model of the small coal-fired power plant into parameters with time value and parameters without time value, calculating the parameters without time value, and converting the parameters with time value into years without time value parameters to obtain average annual expenditure of the small coal-fired power plant in one project period;
4) dividing parameters in the cost model of the fuel cell power station into parameters with time value and parameters without time value, calculating the parameters without time value, converting the parameters with time value into years without time value parameters, and obtaining average annual expenditure of the fuel cell power station in one project period;
5) according to different data in model elements, the cost model of the small coal-fired power plant is subtracted from the cost model of the fuel cell power plant to obtain the calculation result of the economic benefit of the fuel cell and the energy storage cell in the alternative scheme after implementation under different configurations in different years.
Compared with the prior art, the economic benefit calculation method for replacing the small coal-fired power plant by the fuel cell power station, disclosed by the invention, has the advantages that when the installed power of the fuel cell is calculated, the energy storage cell is introduced, the existing alternative scheme economic benefit calculation method for substituting the time value is rewritten, and the alternative scheme economic benefit calculation equation after the energy storage cell is added is constructed and considered.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the annual net present value calculation steps of a small coal fired power plant being replaced of a fuel cell power plant replacing economic benefit calculation method of the small coal fired power plant of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of the annual net present value calculation steps for a fuel cell power plant of an alternative to the economic efficiency calculation method of a fuel cell power plant of the present invention for replacing a small coal fired power plant;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of the steps of the economic benefit calculation after an alternative implementation of the economic benefit calculation method of a fuel cell power plant instead of a small coal-fired power plant of the present invention.
Detailed Description
profit＝(P1+P2+P5)/Td1+P3+P4。
102, replacing the economic benefit calculator profit of the small coal-fired power plant by the fuel cell power plant disclosed by the invention, wherein the economic benefit calculator profit comprises the following parameters: p1Is fitted with the collected historical data to obtain a fitted function of time and cost, the formula of which can be expressed as
P1＝(a1t+b1)Q0
In the formula, Q0Is the total installed capacity of the coal-fired power plant, a1，b1Is the unit equipment purchase cost coefficient of the reference year, which is determined by the equipment purchase market cost of the reference year, and t is the year in which the plan is scheduled to be executed.
Installation cost P of the apparatus2Mainly depends on labor cost and is set as
P2＝Q0k1i1 t
In the formula k1Is a unit equipment installation cost coefficient determined by the equipment installation market cost of the reference year, i1Is the coefficient of variation of installation cost.
Equipment maintenance cost P3Is set to P1Is expressed as
P3＝k2P1
In the formula k2The maintenance factor is determined by the specific engineering.
Coal charge P4Then fitting is performed using the collected historical data to obtain a time-to-cost fit function, whose formula can be expressed as
P4＝MR(a2t+b2)
In the formula MRIs the total mass (ton) of annual coal burning, a2，b2Is the unit coal cost coefficient of the reference year and is determined by the coal cost of the reference year.
Environmental governance cost P5Can be expressed as
In the formula VjRepresents the environmental value (Yuan/kg), d, of the j-th pollutantjAnd (4) representing the discharge amount of j pollutants, wherein m is the total number of pollutants, and F is the treatment cost paid for reducing the pollutants.
103, substituting each cost parameter in the profit into the time value to obtain the average annual cost in a project period after the implementation scheme of the t year
cost＝C1/Td2+C2+C3+C4+C5+C6+C7
In the formula, a3，b3Cost factor, Q, for unit fuel cell equipment of a reference year1Is the total installed capacity of the fuel cell power plant.
Installation cost of fuel cell equipment C2Mainly depends on labor cost and is set as
C2＝Q1k3i2 t
In the formula k3Is a unit equipment installation cost coefficient determined by the equipment installation market cost of the reference year, i2The coefficient of variation of the installation cost of the fuel cell.
Fuel cell plant maintenance fee C3Is set to C4Is expressed as
C3＝k4C4
In the formula k4The maintenance factor is determined by the specific engineering.
Fuel cost of fuel cell C4Is expressed as
C4＝W1fq2
In the formula W1F is fuel consumption per kW of fuel cell power generation (kg/kW), q is the annual actual power generation amount of the fuel cell2The fuel price is obtained by fitting time and cost through collected historical data.
Energy storage battery equipment acquisition and installation cost C5Is expressed as
In the formula q3Fitting the unit cost of the energy storage battery by using the collected historical data to obtain a fitting function of time and cost, wherein k is selected according to the type of the required battery5For the installation cost factor per unit energy storage battery, i3Coefficient of variation, Q, for installation cost per unit of energy storage cell2The total installed capacity of the energy storage battery is obtained.
Energy storage battery equipment maintenance fee C6Is set to C5Is expressed as
C6＝k5C5
In the formula k5The maintenance factor is determined by the specific engineering.
Annual energy storage battery replacement cost C7Is expressed as
C7＝k6q3Q2/(1+i0)t
In the formula k6The annual natural elimination rate of the energy storage battery is high.
Q0＝Q1+Q2
Annual actual power generation amount W of fuel cell1The constraint condition is
In the formula, W1αDirectly supplying the electric quantity of the power grid to the fuel cell; r is1The charge-discharge loss coefficient of the energy storage battery is obtained; w2And actually supplying power to the EV battery. By combining the actual conditions of the specific engineering and the constraint conditions, the calculation method can calculate the installed power intervals of the fuel cell and the energy storage cell and the economic benefits under different installed strategies.
In the economic benefit calculation method for replacing the small-sized coal-fired power plant by the fuel cell power plant, the average net present value is substituted into the time value, and the average annual economic benefit calculation formula for replacing the small-sized coal-fired power plant by the fuel cell power plant with the substituted time value is obtained as
f＝profitt-costt
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of the steps of the economic benefit calculation after the alternative embodiment of the economic benefit calculation method of the fuel cell power plant replacing the small coal-fired power plant of the invention is implemented, and the flow of the steps comprises:
1) the target coal-fired power plant basic information extraction module 301 is used for extracting the operation information of the small and medium coal-fired power plants and all the parameters required to be used in the alternative scheme;
2) a parameter information extraction module 302 that extracts information of each cost parameter obtained by collection;
3) the substituted parameter fitting module 303 reasonably fits all cost parameters in the small coal-fired power plant;
4) the original scheme cost calculation module 304 is used for putting the fitted data into a preset cost calculation function to obtain the average annual total cost of the original scheme;
5) a fuel cell power station parameter information extraction module 305, which obtains the basic scale of the alternative scheme through the analysis of the alternative scheme and collects the information of Russian cost parameters required by the alternative scheme;
6) the alternative scheme parameter information fitting module 306 is used for reasonably fitting all cost parameters in the fuel cell power station;
7) a parameter constraint calculation module 307 for analyzing and calculating the constraint conditions of each parameter in the replaced scheme and the alternative scheme;
8) the algorithm optimizing module 308 calculates an optimal strategy through an algorithm in each alternative strategy within the parameter constraint condition range, and calculates the average annual total cost of the alternative under the strategy;
9) and the economic benefit comparison module 309 calculates the difference between the alternative scheme and the alternative scheme to obtain the economic benefit of replacing the small coal-fired power plant by the fuel cell power plant in different years.
The invention looks ahead the future development of the fuel cell, proposes the economic benefit calculation method based on the fuel cell power station to replace the small-scale coal-fired power plant, under the premise of considering each item of cost difference after the small-scale coal-fired power plant replaced by the fuel cell, not only introduces the peak and valley reduction of the energy storage battery to reduce the cost under the partial load of the fuel cell, but also introduces the parameter variable containing time value and no time value, perfects the existing cost analysis method, gives the detailed calculation method and the steps for realizing the calculation method, and improves the economic benefit calculation method of the current fuel cell power station to replace the small-scale coal-fired power plant. The economic benefit calculation method for replacing the small-sized coal-fired power plant by the fuel cell power plant not only can consider the time value of each expense, but also can effectively consider the optimal configuration ratio of the fuel cell and the energy storage cell under different load characteristics, so that the calculation is more reasonable and feasible, the cost is saved, and an effective method is provided for the economic benefit calculation of replacing the small-sized coal-fired power plant by the fuel cell power plant.
Claims (7)
1. A method for calculating economic benefits of a fuel cell power plant instead of a small coal-fired power plant is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
1) a cost parameter extraction step, which is to respectively extract cost model parameter information of the small coal-fired power plant and the fuel cell power plant in a respective engineering period to obtain a total cost parameter of the small coal-fired power plant and a total cost parameter of the fuel cell power plant;
2) a price fitting calculation step, namely collecting the prices of all cost parameters in the past year, and obtaining a price function according with the change trend of the prices through fitting;
3) substituting the parameters into a time value calculation step, dividing the parameters in the cost model of the small coal-fired power plant into parameters with time values and parameters without time values, calculating the parameters without time values, converting the parameters with time values into years without time value parameters, and respectively obtaining average annual expenses of the small coal-fired power plant and the fuel cell power plant in a project period;
4) calculating a power constraint interval, namely calculating the installed power of the fuel cell and the installed power constraint of the energy storage cell of the alternative scheme according to the operation characteristic curve, the parameters of the fuel cell and the parameters of the energy storage cell of the actual coal-fired power plant of the project;
5) and an economic benefit calculation step, namely subtracting the cost model of the fuel cell power station from the cost model of the small coal-fired power plant according to different data in model elements to obtain the calculation result of the economic benefit of the fuel cell and the energy storage cell implemented under different configurations in different years in the alternative scheme.
2. The economic benefit calculation method of a fuel cell power plant instead of a small coal-fired power plant according to claim 1, wherein the cost parameter extraction step comprises the steps of:
1) the cost parameters of the small coal-fired power plant comprise equipment purchase cost, equipment service life, equipment maintenance cost, coal-fired cost, annual coal-fired quantity and environment treatment cost, and then the average annual total cost expression (P) of the small coal-fired power plant is obtained1+P2+P5)/Td1+P3+P4；
2) The cost parameters of the fuel cell power station comprise equipment purchase cost, equipment service life, equipment maintenance cost, fuel cost, energy storage cell equipment purchase cost and energy storage cell equipment maintenance cost, and further the average annual total cost expression cost of the fuel cell power station is obtained1/Td2+C2+C3+C4+C5+C6+C7。
3. The method for calculating economic benefits of a fuel cell power plant instead of a small coal-fired power plant according to claim 1, wherein the price fitting calculation step is characterized in that in the cost parameters collected in the cost parameter extraction step, a reference year is set according to engineering requirements, and then the relationship between price and time is fitted by using functions according with the development trend of each cost parameter, so as to obtain a price function of each cost parameter according with the time variation trend of the cost parameter.
4. The economic benefit calculation method for a fuel cell power plant instead of a small coal-fired power plant according to claim 1, the substituting time value calculation step comprising the steps of:
1) dividing parameters in the cost model of the small coal-fired power plant into parameters with time value and parameters without time value, calculating the parameters without time value, and converting the parameters with time value into parameters without time valueObtaining average annual expenditure of small coal-fired power plants in a project period by years without time value parameters
2) Dividing the parameters in the cost model of the fuel cell power station into parameters with time value and parameters without time value, calculating the parameters without time value, converting the parameters with time value into the years without time value parameters, and obtaining the average annual expenditure of the fuel cell power station in a project period
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the time-based and non-time-based cost parameters include time-based parameters, the method further comprising the steps of calculating economic efficiency of the fuel cell power plant in place of the small coal-based power plant, the small coal-based power plant including time-based parameters including equipment maintenance costs, coal-based costs, environmental governance costs; the small coal-fired power plant time-value-free parameters comprise equipment purchase cost and equipment installation cost; the time value parameters of the fuel cell power station comprise fuel cell equipment maintenance cost, fuel cost, energy storage cell equipment maintenance cost and energy storage cell replacement cost every year; the time value-free parameters of the fuel cell power station comprise the purchase and installation cost of fuel cell equipment and the purchase and installation cost of energy storage cell equipment.
6. The economic benefit calculation method for a fuel cell power plant to replace a small coal-fired power plant according to claim 1, wherein the power constraint interval calculation step is characterized in that a load characteristic curve of the small coal-fired power plant in the replaced scheme is collected, and an installed power constraint interval of the fuel cell and the energy storage cell in the replaced scheme and annual fuel consumption under different installed schemes are calculated by combining the fuel cell power characteristic curve and the charge-discharge loss of the energy storage cell in engineering practice.
7. The economic benefit calculation method of a fuel cell power plant replacing a small coal-fired power plant according to claim 1, wherein the economic benefit calculation step is characterized in that the average annual expenditure of the small coal-fired power plant in the replaced scheme is regarded as cash-in, the average annual expenditure of the fuel cell power plant in the replaced scheme is regarded as cash-out, and the economic benefit after the implementation of the replacement scheme is regarded as cash-in minus cash-out, so as to obtain the economic benefit of the replacement scheme under different fuel cell and energy storage cell installation strategies in different years, and the formula is f parametert-costtAnd all the calculations are completed.
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Application publication date: 20211008 |