CN115204944A - Energy storage optimal peak-to-valley price difference measuring and calculating method and device considering whole life cycle - Google Patents
Energy storage optimal peak-to-valley price difference measuring and calculating method and device considering whole life cycle Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A method for calculating the optimal peak-to-valley price difference of energy storage in consideration of the whole life cycle comprises the following steps: analyzing the energy storage cost; analyzing the energy storage operation income; and (4) measuring and calculating the energy storage peak-valley price difference. The method is used for measuring and calculating the profit critical electricity price difference under different energy storage electricity prices. The energy storage profit critical electricity price and the energy storage electricity price present a positive correlation, that is to say, the higher the energy storage electricity price, the higher the energy storage profit critical electricity price. When the energy storage price of electricity is higher, the energy storage operation cost is higher, a higher peak-valley difference price is needed at the moment, and the energy storage operation income is improved, so that the investment yield of a decision maker is met. The invention provides a method for calculating the cost and the profit of each link in the whole life cycle of planning, construction, commissioning, retirement and the like of energy storage equipment based on a full life cycle theory through energy storage cost analysis and energy storage operation profit analysis, then obtains energy storage economic factors through the operation cost and the operation profit according to the method, and then obtains the relation between the economic factors and energy storage charging and discharging prices, initial investment and the like.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a measuring and calculating method and a device thereof, in particular to a measuring and calculating method and a device for the optimal peak-valley price difference of energy storage in a life cycle, and belongs to the field of energy.
Background
Energy storage is an important link in modern energy systems. With the rapid change of the main energy pattern from traditional fossil energy to new energy in China, the new energy is developed rapidly no matter in China from the total electric energy structure or the incremental installation structure, and becomes an important force for accelerating energy revolution in China. The energy storage industry and the energy storage technology are used as core supports for new energy development, cover various requirements of a power supply side, a power grid side, a user side and the like, and have important strategic value and brilliant industrial prospects. Meanwhile, the cost and the income of the energy storage are used as key factors of investment profit, and undoubtedly, the large-scale popularization and application of the energy storage are influenced. Under the situation of clean energy flat price internet surfing, the energy storage investment income completely depends on a peak-valley price difference mode.
The prior art, as disclosed in Chinese patent publication No.: CN112907129A discloses an energy storage comprehensive benefit evaluation index system, which relates to the technical field of energy storage benefit evaluation, and comprises social environment benefit indexes, economic benefit indexes and technical benefit indexes, wherein each index comprises a specific technical index, and each technical index is quantized. The method can comprehensively reflect the benefits of the energy storage in all aspects, quantize all indexes and evaluate the energy storage benefits by different evaluation methods; according to the invention, different index weights can be set according to the requirements for each index, and the energy storage benefit is evaluated in a diversity manner. Publication No.: CN110969478A discloses a method for multidimensional improvement of energy storage value under the background of high penetration of new energy, which comprises the following steps: analyzing the energy storage operation value; establishing an energy storage cost life model; constructing an energy storage comprehensive benefit system based on comprehensive analysis of the energy storage operation value; and constructing a value evaluation model. According to the technical scheme, data analysis is carried out in five directions of stabilizing fluctuation, clipping and filling, improving the quality of electric energy, improving the reliability of power supply and reducing line loss of the energy storage power station, quantitative evaluation of the comprehensive economic value of energy storage is realized, planning and operation strategy selection of the energy storage power station are guided by combining an energy storage cost life model, subsidy policy making, investment yield and recycling period measurement and calculation are carried out, distributed energy storage development is realized, and connotation and efficiency improvement of distribution network construction are promoted; CN110348768A discloses a distributed energy storage investment planning model construction method considering full life cycle benefit, comprising the following steps: 1) Acquiring application values of distributed energy storage under different application scenes based on the characteristics of the distributed energy storage technology; 2) Analyzing and obtaining all the costs of the distributed energy storage in the whole life cycle, and 3) establishing a benefit model of the distributed energy storage whole life cycle by combining the application value of the distributed energy storage and all the costs in the whole life cycle; 4) Establishing a distributed energy storage investment planning model with the maximum income as a target based on the distributed energy storage life cycle benefit model; 5) And setting an objective function and constraint conditions of investment planning under different application scenes of distributed energy storage to obtain the distributed energy storage investment planning method considering the full life cycle benefit. CN110490460A provides a method for estimating the economic efficiency of a user-side distributed energy storage system, which utilizes the multivariate value characteristic of energy storage, and under the premise of constraint conditions, integrates multiple applicable scenarios, measures and calculates the economic operation mode of the distributed energy storage system, exerts the function of the energy storage system, maximizes the value of the energy storage system, and maximizes the economic benefit of the energy storage system. CN105977991A independent microgrid optimal configuration method considering price type demand response, comprising the following steps: s1: discretizing 24h continuous time of one day, equally dividing the time into T time intervals, and drawing a conventional load curve in the microgrid for any T time interval with the time length of the T time interval being delta T; s2: drawing a short-term new energy power generation power curve, and formulating real-time electricity price facing the microgrid user according to the new energy power generation power curve and the conventional load curve, wherein the low electricity price is set when the new energy power generation power curve is greater than the conventional load curve, and the high electricity price is set when the new energy power generation power curve is less than the conventional load curve; s3: establishing a demand response optimization model to guide the electricity utilization behavior of a user; s4: determining a wind, light, diesel, storage and other micro-power generation models, and establishing a micro-grid optimal configuration model by taking the annual cost of the whole life cycle of the micro-grid as a target; s5: and solving the established microgrid optimal configuration model to obtain an optimal configuration scheme. Although the prior art is the same as the technical field of the invention, the prior art does not apply a full life cycle management concept, comprehensively considers the cost and the income of the processes of an investment stage, an operation stage, a scrapping stage and the like of a Qinghai power-saving network side energy storage system, measures and calculates the optimal peak-valley time-sharing price of the energy storage of a power grid side, and does not provide a method for calculating the cost and the income of each link in the full life of planning, construction, commissioning, decommissioning and the like of energy storage equipment.
Disclosure of Invention
The method only starts from the view point of electric quantity transaction, researches the operation benefits of low energy storage and high power generation, the electric quantity benefits, the delay of the investment and the income of the power grid and the like, applies the full life cycle management concept, comprehensively considers the cost and the income of the processes of the investment stage, the operation stage, the scrapping stage and the like of the energy storage system at the power grid side, and calculates the optimal peak-valley time-sharing price of the energy storage at the power grid side. The technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a method for calculating the optimal peak-valley price difference of energy storage in consideration of the whole life cycle is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
step 1: energy storage cost analysis: firstly, dividing the life cycle cost of an energy storage system into 5 categories of investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, financial cost, charging cost and residual value recovery; the initial investment cost mainly comprises two parts, namely power cost and capacity cost; the power cost of the energy storage system comprises the power cost of power transmission and energy conversion, and the capacity cost refers to the cost required by the energy storage system to configure a certain capacity; the operation and maintenance cost of the energy storage system is divided into fixed cost and variable cost; the fixed cost is determined by the rated power of the energy storage system and the technical scheme, and the variable cost is determined by the operation process of the energy storage system. The replacement cost is the cost for replacing the battery to ensure the normal operation of the system;
and 2, step: analyzing the energy storage operation income: the energy storage operation benefits comprise direct benefits and indirect benefits; the direct benefit refers to the directly generated economic benefit, mainly comprising the differential benefit of high-price release of the electric energy stored at low price, the clean energy electric quantity benefit and the subsidy benefit; the indirect benefit refers to the benefit brought by delaying the equipment investment on the power grid side; wherein, the running efficiency of low storage and high running is represented as charging at the time of low load valley and low electricity price, and discharging at the time of high load peak and high electricity price; the clean energy electric quantity benefit means that the energy storage system can store the excessive output of new energy, so that the wind and light abandoning amount can be reduced, and the system benefit is increased; the delay of the investment income of the power grid is shown as relieving the load pressure of the power grid during the peak period through the peak clipping and valley filling effects and indirectly delaying the capacity expansion of the power grid; residual value, i.e. selling the residual part at the end of the life cycle, can obtain a certain profit;
and step 3: and (3) measuring and calculating the energy storage peak-to-valley price difference: firstly, calculating an energy storage economic factor through the operation cost and the operation income obtained by calculation in the step 1 and the step 2; and then, calculating the peak-to-valley price difference according to the relation between the energy storage economic factor and the initial cost, the full electricity price and the like.
The invention also discloses a device for measuring and calculating the optimal peak-valley price difference of energy storage in consideration of the whole life cycle, which is characterized in that: the device operation and the method for measuring and calculating the optimal peak-valley price difference of the energy storage in the whole life cycle.
Advantageous effects
The invention provides a method for calculating the cost and the income of each link in the whole life cycle of planning, construction, commissioning and retirement of energy storage equipment based on the life cycle theory. And measuring and calculating the profit critical price difference under different energy storage prices to obtain the positive correlation relationship between the energy storage profit critical price and the energy storage price.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the proposed method of the present invention. The graphic image shows 3 steps of the energy storage optimal peak-to-valley price difference measuring and calculating method provided by the invention, and the steps are as follows in sequence: energy storage cost analysis, energy storage operation income analysis and energy storage peak-valley price difference measurement and calculation.
Fig. 2 is a life cycle cost structure of the energy storage system according to the method of the present invention. The graphical image shows that the life cycle cost of the energy storage system is divided into 5 categories of investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, financial cost, charging cost and residual value recovery. Wherein, the investment cost comprises battery purchasing cost, battery screening and recombining cost, related equipment cost, construction engineering cost and transportation cost. The operation and maintenance cost comprises labor cost, overhaul and maintenance cost and spare part cost.
Fig. 3 shows the profitability of each energy storage system under different peak-to-valley power price differences and the profit margin power price difference under different energy storage power prices according to the embodiment of the invention. Fig. 3 (a) and (b) show the relationship between the gains of energy storage systems such as pumped storage, compressed air, lithium ion batteries, vanadium redox flow batteries and the like and the peak-to-valley valence difference, and provide a basis for the profit of various energy storage systems.
Fig. 4 illustrates the effect of energy storage efficiency on the profitability threshold price difference for an embodiment of the present invention. The figure shows the relationship between the profit critical valence difference of energy storage systems such as pumped storage, compressed air, lithium ion batteries and liquid vanadium batteries and the energy storage efficiency of the energy storage systems in detail.
Fig. 5 is a graph illustrating the effect of battery energy storage cost on critical power price difference for different energy storage investment costs for an example of the present invention. The fig. 5 (a) (b) shows in detail the prediction of the investment cost and the profit critical valence difference of lithium ion batteries and vanadium redox flow batteries in the future, and both will decrease continuously in the future. The specific predicted time is 2019, 2022, 2025, 2027 and 2030.
Detailed Description
The invention provides a method and a device for measuring and calculating the optimal peak-valley price difference of energy storage in a life cycle. The method mainly comprises the following steps:
(1) And (5) energy storage cost analysis. Firstly, the life cycle cost of the energy storage system is divided into 5 categories of investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, financial cost, charging cost and residual value recovery. The initial investment cost mainly comprises two parts of power cost and capacity cost. The power cost of the energy storage system includes power cost of power transmission and energy conversion, and the capacity cost refers to cost required for configuring a certain capacity of the energy storage system. The operation and maintenance cost of the energy storage system is divided into fixed cost and variable cost. The fixed cost is determined by the rated power of the energy storage system and the technical scheme, and the variable cost is determined by the operation process of the energy storage system. The replacement cost is the cost of replacing the battery to ensure the normal operation of the system.
(2) And analyzing the energy storage operation income. The energy storage operation benefits comprise direct benefits and indirect benefits. The direct benefit refers to the economic benefit directly generated, and mainly comprises the differential benefit of high-price release of the electric energy during low-price storage, the clean energy electric quantity benefit and the subsidy benefit. The indirect benefit refers to the benefit brought by delaying the equipment investment on the power grid side. The running efficiency of low-storage high-price operation is represented by charging in the time period of low load valley and low electricity price and discharging in the time period of high load peak and high electricity price. The clean energy electric quantity benefit means that the energy storage system can store the excessive output of new energy, so that the wind and light abandoning amount can be reduced, and the system benefit is increased. The delay of the investment income of the power grid is shown as relieving the load pressure of the power grid in the peak hour period and indirectly delaying the capacity expansion of the power grid through the peak clipping and valley filling effect. The remainder is sold at the end of the life cycle to gain some revenue.
(3) And (4) measuring and calculating the energy storage peak-valley price difference. Firstly, calculating the energy storage economic factor through the operation cost and the operation income obtained by calculation in the first step and the second step. And then, calculating the peak-to-valley price difference according to the relation between the energy storage economic factor and the initial cost, the full electricity price and the like.
The specific flow chart of the method is shown in fig. 1.
The specific content of the method is as follows:
(1) Energy storage cost analysis
According to the optimal peak-valley time-sharing division method, the peak, flat and valley time periods of energy storage operation in Qinghai regions are determined, and an energy storage system cost model based on an average cost analysis method is provided from the perspective of the whole life cycle. The cost model is shown in figure 2.
The method mainly comprises five parts of investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, financial expense, charging cost and residual value recovery.
a. Initial investment cost
The initial investment cost of the energy storage system mainly comprises two parts of power cost and capacity cost.
First, the power cost of the energy storage system includes the power cost of power transmission and energy conversion, and the capacity cost refers to the cost required by the energy storage system to configure a certain capacity. If the capital time value and the energy storage charge-discharge efficiency are considered, the annual investment cost is shown in formula (1):
in the formula, C in Representing the annual share value of the investment cost of the energy storage system. C p The unit power cost of the power transmission and energy conversion equipment is represented; q ESS Representing the power of the power transfer and energy conversion device; η represents charging and discharging efficiency; c e The cost per unit capacity of the energy storage system is high or low; e ESS Indicating the rated capacity size; r represents annual interest rate; and n represents the life cycle of the energy storage system.
b. Cost of operation and maintenance
The operation and maintenance cost of the energy storage system provided by the invention can be divided into fixed cost and variable cost according to the flexibility of the cost.
The fixed cost mainly comprises management cost, labor cost and the like, is determined by the rated power of the energy storage system and the technical scheme, and has no relation with the later-stage running state. The change cost is determined by the operation process of the energy storage system and is influenced by the external environment, such as fuel cost, electricity cost, carbon emission cost, renewable energy related subsidy policy and the like. Therefore, the calculation method of the annual operation and maintenance cost of the energy storage system can be determined as (2):
in the formula, C op Representing annual operation and maintenance cost of the energy storage system; c D And C B Respectively representing fixed cost and variable cost; c d And C b Respectively representing unit fixed cost and unit variable operation and maintenance cost of the energy storage system; l is the annual charge-discharge cycle number of the energy storage system, is equal to 365l, and L is the daily charge-discharge number of the energy storage system.
Wherein the charging cost of the energy storage system can be calculated by formula (3):
in the formula, C chr Represents the energy storage system charging cost; p is a radical of formula chr Representing the charging price of the energy storage system; e rate Represents the rated power of the energy storage system; lambda represents the degradation rate of the battery in each charging and discharging process; η represents energy efficiency.
c. Cost of replacement
The invention proposes that if the service life n' of the battery in the energy storage system is shorter than the energy storage life cycle n, the battery needs to be replaced in order to ensure the normal operation of the system. The cost of replacing the energy storage battery can be expressed as:
in the formula, C ex The cost required by the energy storage system for replacing the primary battery is shown; α represents an annual average cost reduction rate per battery replacement; beta represents the beta-th replacement, and beta is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to k; k represents the number of times the battery is replaced within the life cycle, k = [ n/n'](ii) a n 'represents the actual life cycle (year) of the energy storage battery, n' = T/L, and T represents the total cycle number of the energy storage battery. When n' is not less than n, C ex And =0. According to the formulas (2) to (4), canThe energy storage life cycle cost is determined, and the specific calculation is as follows:
in the formula, C total Representing the energy storage life cycle cost.
(2) Energy storage operation yield analysis
The invention researches the optimal charge and discharge price of the energy storage system to improve the running space of energy storage. The energy storage system is arranged on the side of the power grid, and the operation benefits of the energy storage system comprise direct benefits and indirect benefits. The direct benefit refers to economic benefit directly generated after the energy storage system is put into operation, and mainly comprises differential benefit, clean energy electric quantity benefit and subsidy benefit of storing and releasing electric energy at low price and high price. The indirect benefit refers to the benefit brought by delaying the equipment investment at the side of the power grid by configuring a pure condensation system, and the specific calculation is as follows:
a. low storage and high delivery efficiency
At peak-valley electricity prices, the energy storage device is charged at load-valley, lower electricity prices, and discharged at load-peak, higher electricity prices. The annual economic benefit value earned by the energy storage in the operation mode due to the time-of-use electricity price is the operation benefit of low energy storage and high energy storage:
in the formula, R op And the low-storage high-emission running benefit of the energy storage system is shown. p is a radical of formula dis Represents the discharge price; p is a radical of formula f Representing the discharge price of the ordinary period; p is a radical of v,chr Indicating the charging electricity price in the valley period;
and
respectively representing the valley period and the flat period of the charging capacity.
b. Clean energy electric quantity benefit
The clean energy electric quantity benefit provided by the invention means that the energy storage system can store the excessive output of new energy and then release the stored electric energy in the load peak period, so that the wind and light abandoning amount can be reduced, and the system benefit is increased.
R power ＝p wind E wind +p Photovoltaic E Photovoltaic (7)
In the formula, R power Representing the electric quantity benefit of the energy storage system; p is a radical of wind And p Photovoltaic Respectively representing the grid-connected electricity price of wind power and photovoltaic power generation; e wind And E Photovoltaic And respectively representing the electric quantity of the new energy which is more admitted after the energy storage system is configured.
c. Delay of power grid investment income
With the development of economic society, the investment of a power grid needs to be increased according to the increase condition of load demand, so that the capacity of the power grid is enlarged, and the stability of energy supply is improved. The energy storage system has the peak clipping and valley filling effects, can relieve the load pressure of the power grid in the peak period, and indirectly delays the capacity expansion of the power grid.
R de ＝γ de C de η pde Q ESS (8)
In the formula, R de The investment income of the power grid is delayed; gamma ray de Representing a fixed asset depreciation rate of the power transmission and distribution facility; c de Expressing the unit capacity cost; eta pde And the efficiency of the energy storage system is represented and is caused by energy storage charging and discharging loss and equipment access network loss.
d. Residual value of energy storage system
The energy storage system still has a part of equipment to possess residual value at the end of life cycle, can obtain certain profit with the residual part sale, and the system residual value is mainly decided by residual capacity, charge and discharge power and operation age.
R re ＝f(E 1 ,Q ESS ,n) (9)
In the formula, R re Representing the recovery benefit of the residual value of the energy storage system; e 1 Indicating the remaining capacity of the energy storage system.
Based on the analysis, the comprehensive benefits of the operation of the energy storage system can be determined by measuring and calculating the benefits of the energy storage system in the aspects of low-storage high-power-generation operation benefits, electric quantity benefits, subsidy benefits, power grid investment benefits, energy storage system residual value delaying and the like. Because the Qinghai does not execute the peak-valley time-of-use electricity price at present, when the profit of the energy storage system is measured and calculated, the optimal peak-valley time-of-use electricity price needs to be calculated according to the investment recovery expectation of a decision maker, and the specific calculation is as follows:
in the formula, R total And representing the whole life cycle investment income of the energy storage system.
(3) Energy storage peak-to-valley price difference measurement and calculation
In order to analyze the economic benefits of the energy storage system itself, no government subsidies have been considered in this section. Therefore, the peak-valley difference measurement model comprising the energy storage system only considers the factors such as initial investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, energy storage charge and discharge price, battery operation efficiency, life cycle length, discharge depth and the like:
P m ＝(Y-1)×100％ (12)
in the formula: y represents an introduced energy storage economy factor which can be determined if Y>1, then the energy storage plant is profitable; r is out Representing the discharge electricity price of the energy storage power station; r in Representing the charging electricity price of the energy storage power station; c 0 Represents the initial investment cost; c 1 Representing the operation and maintenance cost; l represents the number of cycles; d DOD Indicating the depth of discharge; p is m And the investment yield of the energy storage power station is shown. The profit model is as follows:
in the formula: beta represents the annual investment rate of the system; l represents a lifetime; h represents the number of annual hours of use.
Examples
According to the invention, three typical energy storage types are selected according to the configuration condition of the Qinghai power supply, peak-valley price difference thresholds of different types of energy storage are analyzed, and table 1 shows basic parameters of 3 energy storage systems.
TABLE 1 3 basic parameters of energy storage systems
Table1 Basic parameters of three energy storage systems
The battery energy storage types comprise lithium ion battery energy storage and liquid flow vanadium battery energy storage, and the technical parameters of the two types of battery energy storage are shown in a table 4-2.
TABLE 2 energy storage technical parameters of vanadium redox flow battery and lithium ion battery
Table2 Technical parameters for energy storage of liquid vanadium battery and lithium ion battery
| Type of battery | Efficiency eta | d DOD ×L | Initial investment | Operating costs |
| Lithium ion | 95％ | 0.3×20000 | 6000 yuan kW -1 | 0.05 yuan kW -1 |
| Liquid vanadium stream | 80％ | 1.0×13000 | 10000 yuan kW -1 | 0.1 yuan kW -1 |
Assuming that the electricity price of energy storage is 0.32 yuan/(kW.h), the yield of various energy storage technologies with different peak-to-valley price differences is shown in FIG. 3. It can be seen that the peak-to-valley price difference needs to be more than 0.42 yuan/(kWh) for the pumped storage energy storage to be profitable; for the compressed air energy storage to be profitable, the peak-valley price difference needs to be more than 0.452 yuan/(kWh). The profit critical price difference of different battery energy storage technologies is different because of battery characteristics, and the peak-valley price difference needs to be kept above 0.82 yuan/(kWh & h) for the lithium ion battery to be profitable; for the profit of the vanadium redox flow battery, the peak-valley price difference needs to be kept above 0.96 yuan/(kWh.h), and the higher price difference condition requirement for the profit of the vanadium redox flow battery is mainly caused by the higher investment cost in the early stage and the higher operation and maintenance cost in the later stage of the battery.
With the continuous deepening of a new round of power market reform, the power market gradually changes from the bidding post power price to market bidding. The method is provided in 2019 in 9 months, so that the internet-surfing electricity price related mechanism of coal-fired power generation is further improved, the development of electric power marketization transaction is promoted, and the electric energy consumption cost of enterprises is gradually reduced. It is also pointed out that the linkage mechanism of the coal price and the electricity price is gradually cancelled, and in order to promote the power generation side to participate in the electric power market, the approval of the on-line electricity price is modified into the reference price plus or minus the floating price. Therefore, there are many possibilities for future charging prices of stored energy, and the profit critical electricity price difference under different stored energy electricity prices is measured and calculated. The energy storage profit critical electricity price and the energy storage electricity price present a positive correlation, that is to say, the higher the energy storage electricity price, the higher the energy storage profit critical electricity price. This is because, when the energy storage price of electricity is higher, energy storage operation cost will be higher, needs higher peak valley price difference this moment, promotes the energy storage operation income to satisfy decision maker's investment earning rate. Because the investment cost of battery energy storage is high, the influence degree of the energy storage price on the lithium ion battery energy storage profit critical price is lower than that of pumped storage and compressed air energy storage.
With the continuous maturity of the energy storage technology, the energy storage cost will be gradually reduced, the energy storage operation efficiency will be gradually improved, the influence of the energy storage efficiency and the energy storage cost on the critical electricity price difference is analyzed, and fig. 4 shows the influence of different energy storage efficiencies on the profit critical electricity price difference.
As can be seen from fig. 4, the profitability critical power price difference of the energy storage system is in a negative correlation with the operation efficiency, and the higher the energy storage efficiency is, the lower the influence of the power price is. According to analysis, the critical profit price difference of the pumped storage energy storage is reduced by 0.0064/(kWh) when the energy storage efficiency is increased by 1%, the price difference of the compressed air energy storage is reduced by 0.0093 yuan/(kWh), and the energy storage price difference of the lithium ion and liquid flow vanadium battery is reduced by 0.0049 yuan/(kWh). If government subsidies are not taken into consideration, the purpose of profit can be achieved by pumping water and storing compressed air under the condition of lower price difference, but the lithium ion and vanadium redox battery can store energy to achieve the purpose of higher demand of profit on price difference. FIG. 5 illustrates the impact of battery energy storage cost on critical power price difference for different energy storage investment costs.
As can be seen from FIG. 5, the unit capacity investment costs of the lithium ion battery and the liquid flow consolidation battery are respectively reduced to 7500 yuan/kW, 4900 yuan/kW, 5500 yuan/kW and 2800 yuan/kW in 2025 and 2030, and the corresponding critical profit price differences are respectively 0.68 yuan/kW.h, 0.79 yuan/kW.h, 0.45 yuan/kW.h and 0.52 yuan/kW.h, which are close to the critical profit price of the pumped storage and the compressed air energy storage. In general, from the perspective of system gains, the main source of energy storage gains is peak-valley time-sharing price difference, peak-valley price difference is kept above 0.42 yuan/(kWh & h) for realizing profit by pumping water and storing energy, and peak-valley price difference is kept above 0.452 yuan/(kWh & h) for realizing profit by compressed air and storing energy. However, for the purpose of profitability, energy storage of lithium ion batteries and vanadium redox flow batteries has high requirements on peak-to-valley price difference, and the requirements are respectively 0.82 yuan/(kWh) and 0.96 yuan/(kWh).
The method mainly calculates the profit critical power price difference under different energy storage power prices. The energy storage profit critical electricity price and the energy storage electricity price present a positive correlation, that is to say, the higher the energy storage electricity price, the higher the energy storage profit critical electricity price. This is because, when the energy storage price of electricity is higher, energy storage operation cost will be higher, needs higher peak valley price difference this moment, promotes the energy storage operation income to satisfy decision maker's investment earning rate. Based on a full life cycle theory, the invention provides a method for calculating the cost and the profit of each link in the full life cycle of planning, construction, commissioning, decommissioning and the like of energy storage equipment through energy storage cost analysis in the first step and energy storage operation profit analysis in the second step. And then according to the method provided in the third step, firstly obtaining an energy storage economic factor through the operation cost and the operation income, and then effectively calculating the peak-valley price difference of the energy storage according to the relation between the economic factor and the energy storage charging and discharging price, the initial investment and the like, as shown in the formula (11).
The foregoing shows and describes the general principles, essential features, and advantages of the invention. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above, which are merely illustrative of the principles of the invention, but that various changes and modifications may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which fall within the scope of the invention as claimed. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims and equivalents thereof.
Claims (10)
1. A method for calculating the optimal peak-valley price difference of energy storage in consideration of the whole life cycle is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
step 1: energy storage cost analysis: firstly, dividing the life cycle cost of an energy storage system into 5 categories of investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, financial cost, charging cost and residual value recovery; wherein, the initial investment cost mainly comprises two parts of power cost and capacity cost; the power cost of the energy storage system comprises the power cost of power transmission and energy conversion, and the capacity cost refers to the cost required by the energy storage system to configure a certain capacity; the operation and maintenance cost of the energy storage system is divided into fixed cost and variable cost; the fixed cost is determined by the rated power of the energy storage system and the technical scheme, and the variable cost is determined by the operation process of the energy storage system; the replacement cost is the cost for replacing the battery to ensure the normal operation of the system;
step 2: analyzing the energy storage operation income: the energy storage operation benefits comprise direct benefits and indirect benefits; the direct benefit refers to the directly generated economic benefit, mainly including the differential benefit of storing and releasing electric energy at low price and high price, the clean energy electric quantity benefit and the subsidy benefit; the indirect benefit refers to the benefit brought by delaying the equipment investment on the power grid side; wherein, the running efficiency of low storage and high running is represented as charging at the time of low load valley and low electricity price, and discharging at the time of high load peak and high electricity price; the clean energy electric quantity benefit means that the energy storage system can store the excessive output of new energy, so that the wind and light abandoning amount can be reduced, and the system benefit is increased; the delay of the investment income of the power grid is shown as relieving the load pressure of the power grid during the peak period through the peak clipping and valley filling effects and indirectly delaying the capacity expansion of the power grid; residual value, i.e. selling the residual part at the end of the life cycle, can obtain a certain profit;
and step 3: and (3) measuring and calculating the energy storage peak-to-valley price difference: firstly, calculating an energy storage economic factor through the operation cost and the operation income obtained by calculation in the step 1 and the step 2; and then, calculating the peak-to-valley price difference according to the relation between the energy storage economic factor and the initial cost, the full electricity price and the like.
2. The method of claim 1 for calculating optimal peak-to-valley price difference of energy storage over a full life cycle, comprising: the initial investment cost comprises the following contents:
firstly, the power cost of the energy storage system comprises the power cost of power transmission and energy conversion, the capacity cost refers to the cost required by the energy storage system to configure a certain capacity, and if the capital time value and the energy storage charging and discharging efficiency are considered, the annual investment cost is specifically shown in a formula (1):
in the formula, C in An annual share value representing the investment cost of the energy storage system; . C p The unit power cost of the power transmission and energy conversion equipment is represented; q ESS Representing the power of the power transfer and energy conversion device; η represents charging and discharging efficiency; c e The cost per unit capacity of the energy storage system is high or low; e ESS Representing a rated capacity size; r represents the annual interest rate; and n represents the life cycle length of the energy storage system.
3. The method of claim 1 for energy storage optimum peak-to-valley cost measurement with a full life cycle taken into account, wherein: the operation and maintenance cost comprises the following contents:
the operation and maintenance cost can be divided into fixed cost and variable cost according to the flexibility of the cost:
the fixed cost mainly comprises management cost and labor cost, is determined by the rated power of the energy storage system and the technical scheme, and has no relation with the later-stage running state; the change cost is determined by the operation process of the energy storage system and can be influenced by the external environment; therefore, the calculation method of the annual operation and maintenance cost of the energy storage system can be determined as follows:
in the formula, C op Representing annual operation and maintenance cost of the energy storage system; c D And C B Respectively representing fixed cost and variable cost; c d And C b Respectively representing unit fixed cost and unit variable operation and maintenance cost of the energy storage system; l is the annual charge-discharge cycle number of the energy storage system, is equal to 365l, and L is the daily charge-discharge number of the energy storage system;
wherein the charging cost of the energy storage system can be calculated by formula (3):
in the formula, C chr Represents the energy storage system charging cost; p is a radical of chr Representing an energy storage system charge price; e rate Represents the rated power of the energy storage system; lambda represents the degradation rate of the battery in charge and discharge every time; η represents energy efficiency.
4. The method of claim 1 for calculating optimal peak-to-valley price difference of energy storage over a full life cycle, comprising: the replacement cost comprises the following contents:
if the service life n' of the battery in the energy storage system is shorter than the life cycle n of energy storage, the battery needs to be replaced in order to ensure the normal operation of the system; the cost of replacing the energy storage battery can be expressed as:
in the formula, C ex The cost required by the energy storage system for replacing the primary battery is shown; α represents an annual average cost reduction rate per battery replacement; beta represents the beta-th replacement, and beta is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to k; k represents the number of times the battery is replaced within the life cycle, k = [ n/n'](ii) a n 'represents the actual life cycle (year) of the energy storage battery, n' = T/L, and T represents the total cycle number of the energy storage battery; when n' is not less than n, C ex =0; according to the formulas (2) to (4), the energy storage life cycle cost can be established, and the specific calculation is as follows:
in the formula, C total Representing the energy storage life cycle cost.
5. The method of claim 1 for calculating optimal peak-to-valley price difference of energy storage over a full life cycle, comprising: the energy storage system is arranged on the side of the power grid, and the operation benefits of the energy storage system comprise direct benefits and indirect benefits; the direct benefit refers to economic benefit directly generated after the energy storage system is put into operation, including the price difference benefit of high-price release of electric energy in low-price storage, and is specifically calculated as follows:
under the peak valley electricity price, the energy storage device is charged at the time of low load valley and low electricity price, and is discharged at the time of high load peak and high electricity price; the annual economic benefit value earned by the energy storage in the operation mode due to the time-of-use electricity price is the operation benefit of low energy storage and high energy storage:
in the formula, R op Representing the low-storage high-delivery operation benefit of the energy storage system; p is a radical of dis Represents the discharge price; p is a radical of f Representing the discharge price of the ordinary period; p is a radical of formula v,chr Indicating the charging electricity price in the valley period;
and
respectively representing the valley period and the plateau period charge capacity.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the method comprises: the method also comprises the benefit of the electric quantity of the clean energy, and the specific algorithm is as follows:
the clean energy electric quantity benefit means that the energy storage system can store the excessive output of new energy and then release the stored electric energy in the load peak period, so that the wind and light abandoning amount can be reduced, and the system benefit is increased;
R power ＝p wind E wind +p Photovoltaic E Photovoltaic (7)
in the formula, R power Representing the electric quantity benefit of the energy storage system; p is a radical of wind And p Photovoltaic Respectively representing the grid-connected electricity price of wind power and photovoltaic power generation; e wind And E Photovoltaic Respectively indicate the number of the energy storage systemsAnd (4) the admitted new energy electric quantity.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein the method comprises: the method also comprises the step of delaying the investment income of the power grid, and the specific algorithm is as follows:
the energy storage system has the peak clipping and valley filling effects, can relieve the load pressure of the power grid in the peak period, and indirectly delays the capacity expansion of the power grid;
R de ＝γ de C de η pde Q ESS (8)
in the formula, R de The investment income of the power grid is delayed; gamma ray de Representing a fixed asset depreciation rate of the power transmission and distribution facility; c de Expressing the unit capacity cost; eta pde And the efficiency of the energy storage system is represented and is caused by energy storage charging and discharging loss and equipment access network loss.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein the method comprises: the method further comprises the following steps of:
the energy storage system still has some equipment to possess residual value at the end of life cycle, can obtain certain profit with the residual part sale, and the system residual value is mainly decided by residual capacity, charge and discharge power and operation year:
R re ＝f(E 1 ,Q ESS ,n) (9)
in the formula, R re Representing the recovery benefit of the residual value of the energy storage system; e 1 Representing the residual capacity of the energy storage system;
based on the analysis, the comprehensive benefits of the operation of the energy storage system can be determined by measuring and calculating the benefits of the energy storage system in the aspects of low-storage high-power-generation operation benefits, electric quantity benefits, subsidy benefits, power grid investment benefits and energy storage system residual value delay; because the peak-valley time-of-use electricity price is not executed in the Qinghai at present, when the profit of the energy storage system is measured and calculated, the optimal peak-valley time-of-use electricity price needs to be calculated according to the investment recovery expectation of a decision maker, and the specific calculation is as follows:
in the formula, R total Representing the life cycle investment gain of the energy storage system.
9. The method of claim 1 for calculating optimal peak-to-valley price difference of energy storage over a full life cycle, comprising: the energy storage peak-to-valley price difference measurement comprises the following steps:
in order to analyze the economic benefit of the energy storage system, government subsidies are not considered in this section, so the peak-valley difference measurement and calculation model comprising the energy storage system only considers the factors of initial investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, energy storage charging and discharging price, battery operation efficiency, life cycle length and discharging depth:
P m ＝(Y-1)×100％ (12)
in the formula: y represents an introduced energy storage economy factor which can be determined if Y>1, then the energy storage plant is profitable; r out Representing the discharge electricity price of the energy storage power station; r in Representing the charging price of the energy storage power station; c 0 Represents the initial investment cost; c 1 Representing the operation and maintenance cost; l represents the number of cycles; d DOD Indicating the depth of discharge; p m Expressing the investment yield of the energy storage power station; the profit model is as follows:
in the formula: beta represents the annual investment rate of the system; l represents a lifetime; h represents the number of annual hours of use.
10. An energy storage optimal peak-valley price difference measuring and calculating device considering the whole life cycle is characterized in that: the device runs the energy storage optimum peak-to-valley price difference estimation method considering the whole life cycle according to any one of claims 1 to 9.
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