CN109740903A - Composite power disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts method for evaluating hazard based on AHP - Google Patents
Composite power disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts method for evaluating hazard based on AHP Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to mine power disaster Prevention Technique fields, a kind of composite power disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts method for evaluating hazard based on AHP is provided, five kinds of parameters are chosen first, and based on Hierarchy Evaluation model of the AHP building including destination layer, rule layer and solution layer, then range of the every kind of parameter under each initial scale is set, and determine the corresponding initial scale of every kind of parameter in drilling cuttings monitoring information, relative scale is calculated, the first judgment matrix is formed；Then Mode of Level Simple Sequence is carried out, the disaster judgment matrix of every kind of parameter is obtained by Experts consultation method, total hierarchial sorting is carried out again, calculates total ordering values of every kind of dynamic disaster with the specific Disasters Type of determination, calculates the safety coefficient of tested mine finally to determine the danger classes of disaster.The present invention can carry out the overall merit of different kinds of parameters to dynamic disaster especially composite power disaster, determine Disasters Type and danger classes, promote the reliability of monitoring result.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to mine power disaster Prevention Technique fields, more particularly to a kind of composite power calamity based on AHP
Evil drilling cuttings many reference amounts method for evaluating hazard.
Background technique
Bump and coal and gas prominent are most common two kinds of dynamic disasters in coal production, have randomness, dash forward
The features such as hair property, failure mode diversity, the life security of Safety of Coal Mine Production and personnel in the pit are seriously threatened.With
China's coal-mine enter the deep mining stage, coal petrography environmental effect is more complicated, and gas pressure and crustal stress constantly increase, and leads
The aggravation of the dynamic disasters occurrence frequency such as bump and coal and gas prominent is caused, while to show two kinds of disasters mutual for some coal mines
It influences, effect, each other compound situation, and occurs that 2 kinds of disasters are compound to be occurred to be composite power disaster, the production of composite power disaster
Life is so that Disasters Type judgement becomes increasingly difficult complexity.To, it is necessary to propose scientific and reasonable disaster determination method, and right
It carries out hazard assessment, so as to which diaster prevention and control work is targetedly unfolded, provides more safety for deep mining and protects
Barrier.
Drilling cuttings method is a kind of dynamic disaster prediction technique that application is more universal, it can monitor multinomial and bump simultaneously
Parameter relevant with coal and gas prominent disaster, such as coal body coal powder quantity of bore, drilling cuttings granularity, coal gas analytic index, drilling cuttings temperature
Damped expoential etc., but disaster monitoring is carried out only to each parameter independent analysis using drilling cuttings method at present, lack and drilling cuttings is combined to believe
The integrated evaluating method of different kinds of parameters carries out Disasters Type judgement and dynamic disaster hazard assessment in breath, monitoring result
Reliability is lower.
Summary of the invention
In view of the problems of the existing technology, the present invention provides a kind of composite power disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts based on AHP
Method for evaluating hazard can carry out the overall merit of different kinds of parameters to dynamic disaster especially composite power disaster, determine calamity
Evil type and danger classes, promote the reliability of monitoring result, and simple and convenient.
The technical solution of the present invention is as follows:
A kind of composite power disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts method for evaluating hazard based on AHP, it is characterised in that: including following
Step:
Step 1: choosing five kinds of parameters as parameter used in dynamic disaster hazard assessment；Remember that i-th kind of parameter is Ci,
I=1,2 ..., 5, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5 respectively indicate coal body coal powder quantity of bore, drilling cuttings granularity, coal gas analytic index, opposite
Drilling cuttings temperature, drilling cuttings temperature damping's index；Remember that kth kind dynamic disaster is Pk, k=1,2 ..., 4, P1, P2, P3, P4 distinguish table
Show bump, impact-protruding type composite power disaster, protrusion-impingement composite power disaster, coal and gas prominent；
Step 2: being based on analytic hierarchy process AHP, building includes that the dynamic disaster drilling cuttings of destination layer, rule layer and solution layer is more
Parameter Risk-Assessment Model；The destination layer includes evaluation result；The rule layer include coal body coal powder quantity of bore, drilling cuttings granularity,
Coal gas analytic index, opposite drilling cuttings temperature and drilling cuttings temperature damping's index；The solution layer includes bump, impact-
Protruding type composite power disaster, protrusion-impingement composite power disaster, coal and gas prominent；
Step 3: according to the actual conditions of tested mine, value model of the every kind of parameter at each initial scale A is set
It encloses；
Step 4: using drilling cuttings method, the monitoring of dynamic disaster many reference amounts is carried out to tested mine, obtain the monitoring of drilling cuttings many reference amounts
Information；The corresponding initial scale of i-th kind of parameter Ci is determined according to the size of i-th kind of parameter Ci in drilling cuttings many reference amounts monitoring information
ACi, the initial scale ACiIndicate i-th kind of parameter Ci to the importance of evaluation result；
Step 5: the relative scale for calculating Cj between i-th kind of parameter Ci and jth kind parameter isForm the first judgement
Matrix O=(oij)5×5, i, j=1,2 ..., 5；
Step 6: carrying out Mode of Level Simple Sequence
Step 6.1: root method being used to calculate the feature vector of the first judgment matrix as W=[W1；W2；...；Wi；...；
W5],
Step 6.2: consistency check being carried out to the first judgment matrix using characteristic root: calculating the consistent of the first judgment matrix
Property index ratio isIf CR < 0.1, within the allowable range, first sentences the inconsistent degree of the first judgment matrix
Disconnected matrix is by consistency check, using the characteristic vector W of the first judgment matrix as weight vectors；If CR >=0.1, first sentences
Disconnected matrix does not pass through consistency check, return step 3；Wherein, CI is the coincident indicator of the first judgment matrix,λmaxFor the Maximum characteristic root of the first judgment matrix,N is the rank of the first judgment matrix
Number, n=5, RI are the Aver-age Random Consistency Index of the first judgment matrix, and RI is related with n, RI=1.12；
Step 7: the construction of disaster judgment matrix and weight matrix
Step 7.1: being directed to i-th kind of parameter Ci, determine that the importance of kth kind dynamic disaster Pk is opposite by Experts consultation method
The ratio of the importance of l kind dynamic disaster PlThe disaster judgment matrix for obtaining i-th kind of parameter Ci is
K, l=1,2 ..., 4, i=1,2 ..., 5；
Step 7.2: to the disaster judgment matrix P of i-th kind of parameter CiCiIt carries out consistency check: calculating i-th kind of parameter Ci's
Disaster judgment matrix PCiCoincident indicator ratio beIf the consistency of the disaster judgment matrix of every kind of parameter refers to
Mark ratio is respectively less than 0.1 namely CRi< 0.1, i=1,2 ..., 5, then the disaster judgment matrix of every kind of parameter passes through unanimously
Property examine, calculate the disaster judgment matrix P of i-th kind of parameter CiCiWeight vectors be Formation weight matrix is WC=[WC1, WC2...,
WCi..., WC5]；If the coincident indicator ratio of the disaster judgment matrix of five kinds of parameters is not entirely less than 0.1, coincident indicator
Disaster judgment matrix of the ratio more than or equal to 0.1 does not pass through consistency check, adjusts coincident indicator ratio using Experts consultation method
The value of element, re-execute the steps 7.2 in disaster judgment matrix of the rate more than or equal to 0.1；Wherein, CIiFor i-th kind of parameter Ci's
Disaster judgment matrix PCiCoincident indicator,λmaxiFor the disaster judgment matrix P of i-th kind of parameter CiCi's
Maximum characteristic root, niFor the disaster judgment matrix P of i-th kind of parameter CiCiOrder, ni=4, RIiFor the disaster of i-th kind of parameter Ci
Judgment matrix PCiAver-age Random Consistency Index, RIiWith niIt is related, RIi=0.9；
Step 8: carrying out total hierarchial sorting
Step 8.1: it is Q=[Q that the total ordering values for calculating every kind of dynamic disaster, which form evaluation result matrix,1；Q2；...；
Qk；...；Q4],
Step 8.2: consistency check: the coincident indicator ratio of Calculation Estimation matrix of consequence Q is carried out to evaluation result matrix Q
Rate isIf CR'< 0.1, evaluation result matrix Q is judged in total ordering values by consistency check
Maximum value is Qm=max { Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4, determine that disaster is m kind dynamic disaster；If CR' >=0.1, evaluation result matrix Q
Not by consistency check, judge the maximum value in the coincident indicator ratio of five kinds of disaster judgment matrixs for CRq=max { CR1,
CR2, CR3, CR4, CR5, and disaster judgment matrix P is adjusted using Experts consultation methodCqThe value of middle element, return step 7.2；
Step 9: the safety coefficient for calculating tested mine isDetermined according to the size of safety coefficient γ
The danger classes of disaster.
In the step 3, value range of the every kind of parameter under each initial scale is as follows:
At initial scale A=0.1, C1 < 3.5kg/m, C2 < 15%, < -19 DEG C of C3 < 40Pa, C4, C5 < 0.08；
At initial scale A=0.2,3.5kg/m≤C1 < 4kg/m, 15%≤C2 < 18%, 40Pa≤C3 < 80Pa ,-
< -13 DEG C of 19 DEG C≤C4,0.08≤C5 < 0.09；
At initial scale A=0.3,4kg/m≤C1 < 4.5kg/m, 18%≤C2 < 21%, 80Pa≤C3 <
160Pa, < -7 DEG C of -13 DEG C≤C4,0.09≤C5 < 0.1；
At initial scale A=0.4,4.5kg/m≤C1 < 5kg/m, 21%≤C2 < 24%, 160Pa≤C3 <
0 DEG C of < of 200Pa, -7 DEG C≤C4,0.1≤C5 < 0.11；
At initial scale A=0.5,5kg/m≤C1 < 5.5kg/m, 24%≤C2 < 27%, 200Pa≤C3 <
7 DEG C of < of 250Pa, 0 DEG C≤C4,0.11≤C5 < 0.12；
At initial scale A=0.6,5.5kg/m≤C1 < 6kg/m, 27%≤C2 < 30%, 250Pa≤C3 <
13 DEG C of < of 300Pa, 7 DEG C≤C4,0.12≤C5 < 0.13；
At initial scale A=0.7,6kg/m≤C1 < 6.5kg/m, 30%≤C2 < 33%, 300Pa≤C3 <
17 DEG C of < of 350Pa, 13 DEG C≤C4,0.13≤C5 < 0.14；
At initial scale A=0.8,6.5kg/m≤C1 < 7kg/m, 33%≤C2 < 35%, 350Pa≤C3 <
32 DEG C of < of 400Pa, 17 DEG C≤C4,0.14≤C5 < 0.15；
At initial scale A=0.9, C1 >=7kg/m, C2 >=35%, C3 >=400Pa, C4 >=32 DEG C, C5 >=0.15.
In the step 9, the danger classes of disaster is determined according to the size of safety coefficient γ: if 0.6 γ≤0.9 <,
Determine the security level of disaster then for level-one, level representative safety, mining activity continues according to operating regulation, continues simultaneously
Real-time monitoring mine；If 0.3 γ≤0.6 <, the security level of disaster is determined for second level, second level representative has threat；If γ≤
0.3, then the security level of disaster is determined for three-level, and three-level represents dangerous.
The invention has the benefit that
The present invention is based on AHP, that is, analytic hierarchy process (AHP)s, using drilling cuttings method, construct using evaluation result as destination layer, with coal body
Subject to coal powder quantity of bore, drilling cuttings granularity, coal gas analytic index, opposite drilling cuttings temperature and drilling cuttings temperature damping index this five kinds of parameters
Then layer, with bump, impact-protrusion composite power disaster, protrusion-impact composite power disaster, coal and gas prominent this
Four kinds of dynamic disasters are the dynamic disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts Risk-Assessment Model of solution layer, with existing to each parameter into
The method for evaluating hazard of row independent analysis is compared, and can carry out different kinds of parameters to dynamic disaster especially composite power disaster
Overall merit determines the type and danger classes of disaster, promotes the reliability of monitoring result, so as to targetedly be unfolded
Diaster prevention and control work, provides more safety guarantee for deep mining；And method of the invention is simple and convenient.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the composite power disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts method for evaluating hazard of the invention based on AHP；
Fig. 2 is dynamic disaster in the composite power disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts method for evaluating hazard of the invention based on AHP
The structural schematic diagram of drilling cuttings many reference amounts Risk-Assessment Model.
Specific embodiment
Below in conjunction with the drawings and specific embodiments, the invention will be further described.
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of composite power disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts method for evaluating hazard based on AHP,
The overall merit that different kinds of parameters can be carried out to dynamic disaster especially composite power disaster, determines Disasters Type, promotes monitoring
As a result reliability, it is simple and convenient.
As shown in Figure 1, being the stream of the composite power disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts method for evaluating hazard of the invention based on AHP
Cheng Tu.A kind of composite power disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts method for evaluating hazard based on AHP of the invention, it is characterised in that: packet
Include following step:
Step 1: choosing five kinds of parameters as parameter used in dynamic disaster hazard assessment；Remember that i-th kind of parameter is Ci,
I=1,2 ..., 5, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5 respectively indicate coal body coal powder quantity of bore, drilling cuttings granularity, coal gas analytic index, opposite bore
Consider temperature, drilling cuttings temperature damping's index to be worth doing；Remember kth kind dynamic disaster be Pk, k=1,2 ..., 4, P1, P2, P3, P4 respectively indicate punching
It presses with hitting, impact-protruding type composite power disaster, protrusion-impingement composite power disaster, coal and gas prominent.
Step 2: as shown in Fig. 2, being based on analytic hierarchy process AHP, building includes the power of destination layer, rule layer and solution layer
Disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts Risk-Assessment Model；The destination layer includes evaluation result；The rule layer include coal body coal powder quantity of bore,
Drilling cuttings granularity, coal gas analytic index, opposite drilling cuttings temperature and drilling cuttings temperature damping's index；The solution layer includes impact ground
Pressure, impact-protruding type composite power disaster, protrusion-impingement composite power disaster, coal and gas prominent.
Wherein, analytic hierarchy process AHP (AnalyticHierarchyProcess) refers to element related with decision point
Solution carries out qualitative and quantitative analysis at levels such as target, criterion, schemes herein on basis, calculate Mode of Level Simple Sequence and total row
Sequence, the method to carry out decision.
Step 3: according to the actual conditions of tested mine, value model of the every kind of parameter at each initial scale A is set
It encloses.
Wherein, value range of the every kind of parameter under each initial scale is as follows:
At initial scale A=0.1, C1 < 3.5kg/m, C2 < 15%, < -19 DEG C of C3 < 40Pa, C4, C5 < 0.08；
At initial scale A=0.2,3.5kg/m≤C1 < 4kg/m, 15%≤C2 < 18%, 40Pa≤C3 < 80Pa ,-
< -13 DEG C of 19 DEG C≤C4,0.08≤C5 < 0.09；
At initial scale A=0.3,4kg/m≤C1 < 4.5kg/m, 18%≤C2 < 21%, 80Pa≤C3 <
160Pa, < -7 DEG C of -13 DEG C≤C4,0.09≤C5 < 0.1；
At initial scale A=0.4,4.5kg/m≤C1 < 5kg/m, 21%≤C2 < 24%, 160Pa≤C3 <
0 DEG C of < of 200Pa, -7 DEG C≤C4,0.1≤C5 < 0.11；
At initial scale A=0.5,5kg/m≤C1 < 5.5kg/m, 24%≤C2 < 27%, 200Pa≤C3 <
7 DEG C of < of 250Pa, 0 DEG C≤C4,0.11≤C5 < 0.12；
At initial scale A=0.6,5.5kg/m≤C1 < 6kg/m, 27%≤C2 < 30%, 250Pa≤C3 <
13 DEG C of < of 300Pa, 7 DEG C≤C4,0.12≤C5 < 0.13；
At initial scale A=0.7,6kg/m≤C1 < 6.5kg/m, 30%≤C2 < 33%, 300Pa≤C3 <
17 DEG C of < of 350Pa, 13 DEG C≤C4,0.13≤C5 < 0.14；
At initial scale A=0.8,6.5kg/m≤C1 < 7kg/m, 33%≤C2 < 35%, 350Pa≤C3 <
32 DEG C of < of 400Pa, 17 DEG C≤C4,0.14≤C5 < 0.15；
At initial scale A=0.9, C1 >=7kg/m, C2 >=35%, C3 >=400Pa, C4 >=32 DEG C, C5 >=0.15.
Step 4: using drilling cuttings method, the monitoring of dynamic disaster many reference amounts is carried out to tested mine, obtain the monitoring of drilling cuttings many reference amounts
Information；The corresponding initial scale of i-th kind of parameter Ci is determined according to the size of i-th kind of parameter Ci in drilling cuttings many reference amounts monitoring information
ACi, the initial scale ACiIndicate i-th kind of parameter Ci to the importance of evaluation result.
Step 5: the relative scale for calculating Cj between i-th kind of parameter Ci and jth kind parameter isForm the first judgement
Matrix O=(oij)5×5, i, j=1,2 ..., 5.
Step 6: carrying out Mode of Level Simple Sequence
Step 6.1: root method being used to calculate the feature vector of the first judgment matrix as W=[W1；W2；...；Wi；...；
W5],
Step 6.2: consistency check being carried out to the first judgment matrix using characteristic root: calculating the consistent of the first judgment matrix
Property index ratio isIf CR < 0.1, within the allowable range, first sentences the inconsistent degree of the first judgment matrix
Disconnected matrix is by consistency check, using the characteristic vector W of the first judgment matrix as weight vectors；If CR >=0.1, first sentences
Disconnected matrix does not pass through consistency check, return step 3；Wherein, CI is the coincident indicator of the first judgment matrix,λmaxFor the Maximum characteristic root of the first judgment matrix,N is the rank of the first judgment matrix
Number, n=5, RI are the Aver-age Random Consistency Index of the first judgment matrix, and RI is related with n, RI=1.12.
In the present embodiment, tested mine is carried out to detect coal body coal powder quantity of bore C1 in acquired drilling cuttings many reference amounts monitoring information
=5.6kg/m, it drilling cuttings granularity C2=19%, coal gas analytic index C3=70Pa, opposite C4=-15 DEG C of drilling cuttings temperature, bores
Consider temperature damping's index C5=0.07 to be worth doing, then corresponding initial scale is AC1=0.6, AC2=0.3, AC3=0.2, AC4=0.2 He
AC5=0.1, relative scale between any two in five kinds of parameters is calculated, the first judgment matrix is obtained are as follows:
In the present embodiment,Here 1-9 scaling law is used, to compare i-th kind of parameter and jth kind parameter to commenting
The importance of valence result: work as oijWhen=1, indicate i-th kind of parameter and jth kind parameter to evaluation result no less important；Work as oij=3
When, indicate that i-th kind of parameter is slightly more important to evaluation result than jth kind parameter；Work as oijWhen=5, indicate i-th kind of parameter than jth kind
Parameter is more important to evaluation result；Work as oijWhen=7, indicate that i-th kind of parameter is more extremely important to evaluation result than jth kind parameter；When
oijWhen=9, indicate that i-th kind of parameter is more absolutely essential to evaluation result than jth kind parameter；Work as oijWhen for other values greater than 1, table
Show i-th kind of parameter and jth kind parameter to the comparison result of the importance of evaluation result between with oijTwo adjacent integers are corresponding
Comparison result between；Work as oijWhen for value less than 1, indicate i-th kind of parameter and jth kind parameter to the importance of evaluation result
Inverse ratio compared with.
Wherein, the relationship between the Aver-age Random Consistency Index RI and order of matrix number of matrix is as shown in table 1.
Table 1
In the present embodiment, by calculating, the feature vector of the first judgment matrix is W=[0.43；0.21；0.14；0.14；
0.07], CR < 0.1, so that the first judgment matrix passes through consistency check.
Step 7: the construction of disaster judgment matrix and weight matrix
Step 7.1: being directed to i-th kind of parameter Ci, determine that the importance of kth kind dynamic disaster Pk is opposite by Experts consultation method
The ratio of the importance of l kind dynamic disaster PlThe disaster judgment matrix for obtaining i-th kind of parameter Ci is
K, l=1,2 ..., 4, i=1,2 ..., 5；
Step 7.2: to the disaster judgment matrix P of i-th kind of parameter CiCiIt carries out consistency check: calculating i-th kind of parameter Ci's
Disaster judgment matrix PCiCoincident indicator ratio beIf the consistency of the disaster judgment matrix of every kind of parameter refers to
Mark ratio is respectively less than 0.1 namely CRi< 0.1, i=1,2 ..., 5, then the disaster judgment matrix of every kind of parameter passes through unanimously
Property examine, calculate the disaster judgment matrix P of i-th kind of parameter CiCiWeight vectors be Formation weight matrix is WC=[WC1, WC2...,
WCi..., WC5]；If the coincident indicator ratio of the disaster judgment matrix of five kinds of parameters is not entirely less than 0.1, coincident indicator
Disaster judgment matrix of the ratio more than or equal to 0.1 does not pass through consistency check, adjusts coincident indicator ratio using Experts consultation method
The value of element, re-execute the steps 7.2 in disaster judgment matrix of the rate more than or equal to 0.1；Wherein, CIiFor i-th kind of parameter Ci's
Disaster judgment matrix PCiCoincident indicator,λmaxiFor the disaster judgment matrix P of i-th kind of parameter CiCi's
Maximum characteristic root, niFor the disaster judgment matrix P of i-th kind of parameter CiCiOrder, ni=4, RIiFor the disaster of i-th kind of parameter Ci
Judgment matrix PCiAver-age Random Consistency Index, RIiWith niIt is related, RIi=0.9.
In the present embodiment, coal body coal powder quantity of bore C1, drilling cuttings granularity C2, coal gas analytic index C3, opposite drilling cuttings temperature C4,
The disaster judgment matrix of drilling cuttings temperature damping's index C5 is respectively
It further calculates, obtaining weight matrix is
Step 8: carrying out total hierarchial sorting
Step 8.1: it is Q=[Q that the total ordering values for calculating every kind of dynamic disaster, which form evaluation result matrix,1；Q2；...；
Qk；...；Q4],
Step 8.2: consistency check: the coincident indicator ratio of Calculation Estimation matrix of consequence Q is carried out to evaluation result matrix Q
Rate isIf CR'< 0.1, evaluation result matrix Q is judged in total ordering values by consistency check
Maximum value is Qm=max { Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4, determine that disaster is m kind dynamic disaster；If CR' >=0.1, evaluation result matrix Q
Not by consistency check, judge the maximum value in the coincident indicator ratio of five kinds of disaster judgment matrixs for CRq=max { CR1,
CR2, CR3, CR4, CR5, and disaster judgment matrix P is adjusted using Experts consultation methodCqThe value of middle element, return step 7.2；
Specifically, work as Qm=Q1Namely { Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4In Q1When maximum, determine that disaster is bump；Work as Qm=Q2
When, determine that disaster is that impact-protruding type composite power disaster namely bump induce coal and gas prominent；Work as Qm=Q3When,
Determine that disaster is that protrusion-impingement composite power disaster namely coal and gas prominent induce bump；Work as Qm=Q4When, it determines
Disaster is coal and gas prominent.
In the present embodiment, by calculating, obtaining evaluation result matrix is Q=[0.45；0.23；0.16；0.15], CR'=
0.029 < 0.1, evaluation result matrix is by consistency check, due to Q1> Q2> Q3> Q4, thus Qm=Q1, determine that disaster is
Bump.
Step 9: the safety coefficient for calculating tested mine isDetermined according to the size of safety coefficient γ
The danger classes of disaster: if 0.6 γ≤0.9 <, the security level of disaster is determined for level-one, level representative is safe, getter
Work continues according to operating regulation, while continuing real-time monitoring mine；If 0.3 γ≤0.6 <, safety of disaster etc. is determined
Grade is second level, and second level representative has threat；If γ≤0.3, the security level of disaster is determined for three-level, three-level represents dangerous.
In the present embodiment, safety coefficient γ=0.696 represents safety, adopts therefore, it is determined that the security level of disaster is level-one
Miner makees to continue according to operating regulation, while continuing real-time monitoring mine.
Obviously, above-described embodiment is only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.Above-mentioned implementation
Example for explaining only the invention, is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention..Based on the above embodiment, those skilled in the art
Member's every other embodiment obtained namely all in spirit herein and original without making creative work
Made all modifications, equivalent replacement and improvement etc., are all fallen within the protection domain of application claims within reason.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of composite power disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts method for evaluating hazard based on AHP, it is characterised in that: including following steps
It is rapid:
Step 1: choosing five kinds of parameters as parameter used in dynamic disaster hazard assessment；Remember that i-th kind of parameter is Ci, i=
1,2 ..., 5, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5 respectively indicate coal body coal powder quantity of bore, drilling cuttings granularity, coal gas analytic index, opposite drilling cuttings
Temperature, drilling cuttings temperature damping's index；Remember that kth kind dynamic disaster is Pk, k=1,2 ..., 4, P1, P2, P3, P4 respectively indicate punching
It presses with hitting, impact-protruding type composite power disaster, protrusion-impingement composite power disaster, coal and gas prominent；
Step 2: being based on analytic hierarchy process AHP, building includes the dynamic disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts of destination layer, rule layer and solution layer
Risk-Assessment Model；The destination layer includes evaluation result；The rule layer includes coal body coal powder quantity of bore, drilling cuttings granularity, coal body
Gasresolution index, opposite drilling cuttings temperature and drilling cuttings temperature damping's index；The solution layer includes bump, impact-protrusion
Type composite power disaster, protrusion-impingement composite power disaster, coal and gas prominent；
Step 3: according to the actual conditions of tested mine, value range of the every kind of parameter at each initial scale A is set；
Step 4: using drilling cuttings method, the monitoring of dynamic disaster many reference amounts is carried out to tested mine, obtains drilling cuttings many reference amounts monitoring information；
The corresponding initial scale A of i-th kind of parameter Ci is determined according to the size of i-th kind of parameter Ci in drilling cuttings many reference amounts monitoring informationCi, institute
State initial scale ACiIndicate i-th kind of parameter Ci to the importance of evaluation result；
Step 5: the relative scale for calculating Cj between i-th kind of parameter Ci and jth kind parameter isForm the first judgment matrix O
=(oij)5×5, i, j=1,2 ..., 5；
Step 6: carrying out Mode of Level Simple Sequence
Step 6.1: root method being used to calculate the feature vector of the first judgment matrix as W=[W1；W2；...；Wi；...；W5],
Step 6.2: carry out consistency check to the first judgment matrix using characteristic root: the consistency for calculating the first judgment matrix refers to
Marking ratio isIf CR < 0.1, within the allowable range, first judges square to the inconsistent degree of the first judgment matrix
Battle array is by consistency check, using the characteristic vector W of the first judgment matrix as weight vectors；If CR >=0.1, first judges square
Battle array does not pass through consistency check, return step 3；Wherein, CI is the coincident indicator of the first judgment matrix,
λmaxFor the Maximum characteristic root of the first judgment matrix,N is the order of the first judgment matrix, and n=5, RI are
The Aver-age Random Consistency Index of first judgment matrix, RI is related with n, RI=1.12；
Step 7: the construction of disaster judgment matrix and weight matrix
Step 7.1: being directed to i-th kind of parameter Ci, determine the importance of kth kind dynamic disaster Pk with respect to l by Experts consultation method
The ratio of the importance of kind dynamic disaster PlThe disaster judgment matrix for obtaining i-th kind of parameter Ci isk,l
=1,2 ..., 4, i=1,2 ..., 5；
Step 7.2: to the disaster judgment matrix P of i-th kind of parameter CiCiIt carries out consistency check: calculating the disaster of i-th kind of parameter Ci
Judgment matrix PCiCoincident indicator ratio beIf the coincident indicator ratio of the disaster judgment matrix of every kind of parameter
Rate is respectively less than 0.1 namely CRi< 0.1, i=1,2 ..., 5, then the disaster judgment matrix of every kind of parameter is examined by consistency
It tests, calculates the disaster judgment matrix P of i-th kind of parameter CiCiWeight vectors be Formation weight matrix is WC=[WC1, WC2..., WCi..., WC5]；If the disaster judgement of five kinds of parameters
The coincident indicator ratio of matrix is not entirely less than 0.1, then disaster judgment matrix of the coincident indicator ratio more than or equal to 0.1 does not lead to
Consistency check is crossed, using element in disaster judgment matrix of the Experts consultation method adjustment coincident indicator ratio more than or equal to 0.1
Value, re-execute the steps 7.2；Wherein, CIiFor the disaster judgment matrix P of i-th kind of parameter CiCiCoincident indicator,λmaxiFor the disaster judgment matrix P of i-th kind of parameter CiCiMaximum characteristic root, niFor i-th kind of parameter Ci's
Disaster judgment matrix PCiOrder, ni=4, RIiFor the disaster judgment matrix P of i-th kind of parameter CiCiMean random consistency refer to
Mark, RIiWith niIt is related, RIi=0.9；
Step 8: carrying out total hierarchial sorting
Step 8.1: it is Q=[Q that the total ordering values for calculating every kind of dynamic disaster, which form evaluation result matrix,1；Q2；...；
Qk；...；Q4],
Step 8.2: to evaluation result matrix Q progress consistency check: the coincident indicator ratio of Calculation Estimation matrix of consequence Q isIf CR'< 0.1, evaluation result matrix Q judges the maximum in total ordering values by consistency check
Value is Qm=max { Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4, determine that disaster is m kind dynamic disaster；If CR' >=0.1, evaluation result matrix Q does not lead to
Consistency check is crossed, judges the maximum value in the coincident indicator ratio of five kinds of disaster judgment matrixs for CRq=max { CR1, CR2,
CR3, CR4, CR5, and disaster judgment matrix P is adjusted using Experts consultation methodCqThe value of middle element, return step 7.2；
Step 9: the safety coefficient for calculating tested mine isDisaster is determined according to the size of safety coefficient γ
Danger classes.
2. the composite power disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts method for evaluating hazard according to claim 1 based on AHP, feature
It is, in the step 3, value range of the every kind of parameter under each initial scale is as follows:
At initial scale A=0.1, C1 < 3.5kg/m, C2 < 15%, < -19 DEG C of C3 < 40Pa, C4, C5 < 0.08；
At initial scale A=0.2,3.5kg/m≤C1 < 4kg/m, 15%≤C2 < 18%, 40Pa≤C3 < 80Pa, -19 DEG C
< -13 DEG C of≤C4,0.08≤C5 < 0.09；
At initial scale A=0.3,4kg/m≤C1 < 4.5kg/m, 18%≤C2 < 21%, 80Pa≤C3 < 160Pa, -13
DEG C≤< -7 DEG C of C4,0.09≤C5 < 0.1；
At initial scale A=0.4,4.5kg/m≤C1 < 5kg/m, 21%≤C2 < 24%, 160Pa≤C3 < 200Pa, -7
DEG C≤0 DEG C of C4 <, 0.1≤C5 < 0.11；
At initial scale A=0.5,5kg/m≤C1 < 5.5kg/m, 24%≤C2 < 27%, 200Pa≤C3 < 250Pa, 0 DEG C
7 DEG C of≤C4 <, 0.11≤C5 < 0.12；
At initial scale A=0.6,5.5kg/m≤C1 < 6kg/m, 27%≤C2 < 30%, 250Pa≤C3 < 300Pa, 7 DEG C
13 DEG C of≤C4 <, 0.12≤C5 < 0.13；
At initial scale A=0.7,6kg/m≤C1 < 6.5kg/m, 30%≤C2 < 33%, 300Pa≤C3 < 350Pa, 13
DEG C≤17 DEG C of C4 <, 0.13≤C5 < 0.14；
At initial scale A=0.8,6.5kg/m≤C1 < 7kg/m, 33%≤C2 < 35%, 350Pa≤C3 < 400Pa, 17
DEG C≤32 DEG C of C4 <, 0.14≤C5 < 0.15；
At initial scale A=0.9, C1 >=7kg/m, C2 >=35%, C3 >=400Pa, C4 >=32 DEG C, C5 >=0.15.
3. the composite power disaster drilling cuttings many reference amounts method for evaluating hazard according to claim 1 based on AHP, feature
It is, in the step 9, the danger classes of disaster is determined according to the size of safety coefficient γ: if 0.6 γ≤0.9 <, sentences
The security level for determining disaster is level-one, and level representative safety, mining activity continues according to operating regulation, while continuing real-time
Monitoring mine；If 0.3 γ≤0.6 <, the security level of disaster is determined for second level, second level representative has threat；If γ≤0.3,
Determine the security level of disaster then for three-level, three-level represents dangerous.
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