CN107403266A - A kind of wellbore integrity integrated risk quantitative calculation method - Google Patents
A kind of wellbore integrity integrated risk quantitative calculation method Download PDFInfo
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- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 22
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- 230000007797 corrosion Effects 0.000 description 7
- 238000005260 corrosion Methods 0.000 description 7
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- RWSOTUBLDIXVET-UHFFFAOYSA-N Dihydrogen sulfide Chemical compound S RWSOTUBLDIXVET-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 4
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 4
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- 229910052717 sulfur Inorganic materials 0.000 description 3
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of wellbore integrity integrated risk quantitative calculation method, comprise the following steps：The form that analysis pit shaft fails, discusses failure inducement, and research triggers the factor of failure；The order of severity after wellbore integrity destroys is analyzed, and is classified；Determine that qualitative and indefinite sexual factor induces the probability that wellbore integrity destroys；The risk class of Calculation Estimation factor；Different wellbore integrities are destroyed with the possibility that situation occurs and makees risk ranking；Index importance in pit shaft barrier risk factors is compared；Rate of aggregative risk is carried out to wellbore integrity with risk matrix.The advantage of the invention is that：Overcome and only analyze single risk factors and go to determine the limitation of wellbore integrity failure risk factor by the professional experiences of expert, it is capable of the discrimination of guide pit shaft key risk, cut down or eliminate potential potential safety hazard in time, it is ensured that pit shaft safety during operation.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to oilfield safety production management technical field, more particularly to a kind of wellbore integrity integrated risk quantifies
Computational methods.
Background technology
" wellbore integrity " is defined as that " by technology, operation and measure should be formed to reduce exploitation risk, to ensure Oil/gas Well
In the safety of their entire life ".Wellbore integrity through Oil/gas Well conceptual design, drilling well, formation testing, completion, produce, repair
Well, the Life cycle thrown aside, key problem in technology are to ensure to must be set up effective barrier in life cycle each stage of well.In oil gas
In well whole life cycle, integrality is once fail, it would be possible to cause leakage, blowout etc. seriously, even catastrophic consequence.
Wellbore integrity evaluation is the important step of oil-gas field management, how rational evaluation wellbore integrity, distinguish the difference of pit shaft
Security risk, propose rational control measures, it is ensured that oil gas field it is all-round developing most important.In view of it is on active service in whole Oil/gas Well
During wellbore integrity importance, it is necessary to carry out to pit shaft safely carry out risk assessment.For wellbore integrity risk
Evaluation, method for qualitative analysis are generally used at present, and the professional experiences for relying solely on expert go to determine wellbore integrity wind
Dangerous factor index weight, often has some limitations；Further, since there is randomness and numerous and diverse for wellbore integrity risk
Property, there is very big difficulty in the risk for evaluating wellbore integrity, and Most scholars are studied just for single factor test, and right
Multifactor pit shaft Risk Comprehensive Evaluation is less.
The content of the invention
The defects of present invention is directed to prior art, there is provided a kind of wellbore integrity integrated risk quantitative calculation method, energy
It is effective to solve the above-mentioned problems of the prior art.
In order to realize above goal of the invention, the technical scheme that the present invention takes is as follows：
A kind of wellbore integrity integrated risk quantitative calculation method, comprises the following steps：
Step 1：The form that investigation and analysis Oil/gas Well fails in sessions pit shaft first, discusses the failure mode
Inducement, trigger the factor of wellbore integrity failure from production management and operating aspect research；
Step 2：Analyze every kind of wellbore integrity and destroy the order of severity after situation occurs, and be classified；
Step 3：It is complete to determine that every kind of qualitative and indefinite sexual factor induces pit shaft using probability theory method and method of expertise
The probability that whole property is destroyed；
Step 4：The risk class of Evaluation: Current factor is calculated using differential technique；
Step 5：Using borda sequence value methods different wellbore integrities are destroyed with the possibility that situation occurs and makees risk row
Sequence；
Step 6：The index importance in pit shaft barrier risk factors is carried out according to the risk class ranking results of step 5
Compare, weight is calculated according to analytic hierarchy process (AHP) structural factor importance judgment matrix A；If w=(w1, w2..., wn) it is that n ranks judge
The orderweight vector of matrix, if judgment matrix A is uniformity judgment matrix, feature corresponding to its Maximum characteristic root λ max to
After amount normalization), it is designated as weight vectors w=(w1, w2... wn)T；
Step 7：Analyzed for the factor of had an impact wellbore integrity failure, with risk matrix to pit shaft
Integrality carries out Rate of aggregative risk.
Further, the calculation formula of the step 4 is as follows：
In formula：R* is the risk class of Evaluation: Current factor；
Its principle is：Assuming that the influence degree S of risk factors is in [S1, S2] between, RP is the possibility that the factor occurs,
And RP is in [RP1, RP2] in section, the risk class of the factor is represented with R*, and R* is in [RR1, RR2] in section, then just deposit
In one and [RR1, RR2] linearly related expression formula and R* can be obtained；
Further, described in step 5 to make risk sort formula as follows：
In formula：The Borda sequence values of B11-current risk factor；
N is current work stage Risk total number；
As k=1, RR111 represents the factor number higher than the venture influence intensity grade of current risk factor；
As k=2, RR112 represents the factor number bigger than current factor risk possibility occurrence.
Further, the wellbore integrity Rate of aggregative risk calculation formula described in step 7 is as follows：
In formula：RrijFor risk class quantized value；
UijFor risk factors weight.
Further, the judgment matrix constructed in the step 6 should have reasonability, generally carry out uniformity to it
Examine, if being unsatisfactory for requiring, it is necessary to carry out reconfiguring judgment matrix.
The criterion of check consistency such as following formula：
In formula：CI is uniformity judge index；
N is the exponent number of judgment matrix；
λ max are judgment matrix eigenvalue of maximum；
After coincident indicator CI is drawn, by calculating consistency ration CR, the judgment matrix of construction is weighed with this
Reasonability；
In formula：RI is constant, is changed with judgment matrix exponent number n change；
When result of calculation consistency ration CR is less than 0.1, then the judgement proof constructed has reasonability, if CR is more than
0.1, then the judgment matrix constructed is without uniformity, it is necessary to rebuild judgment matrix.
Compared with prior art the advantage of the invention is that：It is capable of the discrimination of guide pit shaft key risk, in time
Potential potential safety hazard is cut down or eliminated, there is the directive function of reality for carrying out pit shaft safety assessment.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the broad flow diagram of the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is that the embodiment of the present invention provides risk factors ranking result schematic diagram；
Fig. 3 is that the embodiment of the present invention provides wellbore integrity integrated risk assessment result schematic diagram.
Embodiment
For the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention are more clearly understood, develop simultaneously embodiment referring to the drawings, right
The present invention is described in further details.
As shown in figure 1, a kind of wellbore integrity integrated risk quantitative calculation method, comprises the following steps：
Step 1：The form that investigation and analysis Oil/gas Well fails in sessions pit shaft first, discusses the failure mode
Inducement, in addition, triggering the factor of wellbore integrity failure from production management and operating aspect research；
Step 2：Analyze every kind of wellbore integrity and destroy the order of severity after situation occurs, and be classified；
Step 3：It is complete to determine that every kind of qualitative and indefinite sexual factor induces pit shaft using probability theory method and method of expertise
The probability that whole property is destroyed；
Step 4：The risk class of Evaluation: Current factor is calculated using differential technique, formula is as follows：
In formula：R* is the risk class of Evaluation: Current factor.
Its principle is：Assuming that the influence degree S of risk factors is in [S1, S2] between, RP is the possibility that the factor occurs,
And RP is in [RP1, RP2] in section, the risk class of the factor is represented with R*, and R* is in [RR1, RR2] in section, then just deposit
In one and [RR1, RR2] linearly related expression formula and R* can be obtained.
Step 5：Using borda sequence value methods different wellbore integrities are destroyed with the possibility that situation occurs and makees risk row
Sequence；
In formula：The Borda sequence values of B11-current risk factor；
N is current work stage Risk total number；
As k=1, RR111 represents the factor number higher than the venture influence intensity grade of current risk factor；
As k=2, RR112 represents the factor number bigger than current factor risk possibility occurrence.
Step 6：According to the risk class ranking results of step 5 to each index (such as screw thread class in pit shaft barrier risk factors
Type, work condition environment, sour environment etc.) importance is compared, counted according to analytic hierarchy process (AHP) structural factor importance judgment matrix A
Calculate weight；If w=(w1, w2..., wn) be n rank judgment matrixs orderweight vector, if judgment matrix A be uniformity judge square
During battle array, after characteristic vector normalization corresponding to its Maximum characteristic root λ max), it is designated as weight vectors w=(w1,
w2... wn)T；
Step 7：Analyzed for the factor of had an impact wellbore integrity failure, with risk matrix to pit shaft
Integrality carries out Rate of aggregative risk；Wellbore integrity Rate of aggregative risk calculation formula is as follows：
In formula：RrijFor risk class quantized value；
UijFor risk factors weight.
The judgment matrix constructed in the step 6 should have certain reasonability, generally carry out uniformity to it
Examine, if being unsatisfactory for requiring, it is necessary to carry out reconfiguring judgment matrix.
The criterion of check consistency such as following formula：
In formula：CI is uniformity judge index；
N is the exponent number of judgment matrix；
λ max are judgment matrix eigenvalue of maximum；
After coincident indicator CI is drawn,
Because of the Aver-age Random Consistency Index RI reference tables 1 corresponding to different rank.
The RI of table 1 and judgment matrix exponent number relation
By calculating consistency ration CR, the reasonability of the judgment matrix of construction is weighed with this.
In formula：RI is constant, is changed with judgment matrix exponent number n change；
When result of calculation consistency ration CR is less than 0.1, then the judgement proof constructed has certain reasonability, if
CR is more than 0.1, then the judgment matrix constructed is without uniformity, it is necessary to rebuild judgment matrix.
In order to better illustrate this patent, embodiment explanation is set forth below：
Well stratum basic situation
Example wellblock block stratigraphic structure is gentle, structure with lower amplitude, is broken agensis, and tomography quantity is few, extends short, turn-off
It is small, inclination angle is steep.The example gas well gas layer middle portion temperature is 117 DEG C, and thermograde is 1.95 DEG C/100m, is low geothermal gradient；Gas-bearing formation
Middle part pressure is 53.5MPa, and pressure coefficient is normal pressure system between 1.0~1.14.The other main output of well reservoir
Natural gas, methane average content are 83%, H2S contents are 3-8%, average content 5%, CO2Average content is 8%, according to mark
The regulation that quasi- SY/T6168-2009 classifies to sour gas reservoir, the gas reservoir contain H for height2S, CO is contained in2Gas reservoir.According to reservoir, structure
Make and the introduction of warm-pressing system understands that the gas reservoir belongs to that high sulfur-bearing, stratigraphic structure be simple, normal pressure, low land temperature gradient type.
Overall merit is carried out to the cementing quality of the embodiment well by acoustic variable density log, it is believed that cementing quality is overall
Sealing is preferable, and cementing quality overall merit is qualified.
Annular protective liquid performance used in the embodiment well is that the Solid Free that with the addition of corrosion inhibiter, inhibitor and other reagents has
Machine hydrochlorate, there is corrosion-resistant effect to tubing and casing.The specific performance requirement of annular protective liquid：PH be more than 9.5, condensation point no more than-
17 DEG C, density 1.3g/cm3, 0.076mm/a is not more than to the corrosion rate of carbon steel.
Wellbore integrity evaluation result is as follows：
Corresponding software for calculation is worked out according to a kind of wellbore integrity integrated risk quantitative calculation method proposed by the present invention, it is right
In the pit shaft risk factors ranking result reference picture 2 of example well, maximum factor is influenceed on embodiment well shaft integrality for acid
Property corrosive environment, be secondly the applicability (corrosion and environmentally assisted cracking behavior) and formation temperature of material, it is safer because
Element is the mechanical integrity and tube column strength of cement sheath.
The risk factor ranking results of reference picture 2 can be seen that for tube corrosion failure, consider that it often occurs
Environmentally assisted cracking and homogeneous corrosion factor.For example well, gas-bearing formation middle portion temperature is 117 DEG C, pressure in the middle part of gas-bearing formation
For 53.5MPa, H2S contents are 3-8%, average 5%, its corrosive environment is than more serious, so evaluating its corrosive environment come
Factor ranking value is higher.
Risk analysis evaluation not only is carried out to single factor for a bite well, often these factors are mutually to act synergistically
Joint effect the integrality of pit shaft, and embodiment well comprehensive evaluation result is with reference to figure 3.Production phase, the well shaft integrality was present
Risk class be average risk, its integrated risk value is 2.07874.In the risk factors of all evaluations, sour gas is rotten
Erosion is easiest to cause the well shaft integrity failure, the failure that the Study on Risk Assessment result occurs with the block pit shaft in document
It is similar (according to document " when the high sulfur Gas Fields gathering line corrosion risk of the general light of of charging assess and control technology [J] China stone
Oil and chemical standard and quality, 2013 (11):79-79. "), demonstrate wellbore integrity evaluation method tool proposed by the invention
There is certain reasonability.
One of ordinary skill in the art will be appreciated that embodiment described here is to aid in reader and understands this hair
Bright implementation, it should be understood that protection scope of the present invention is not limited to such especially statement and embodiment.Ability
The those of ordinary skill in domain can be made according to these technical inspirations disclosed by the invention it is various do not depart from essence of the invention its
Its various specific deformations and combination, these deformations and combination are still within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of wellbore integrity integrated risk quantitative calculation method, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
Step 1：The form that investigation and analysis Oil/gas Well fails in sessions pit shaft first, luring for the failure mode is discussed
Cause, trigger the factor of wellbore integrity failure from production management and operating aspect research；
Step 2：Analyze every kind of wellbore integrity and destroy the order of severity after situation occurs, and be classified；
Step 3：Determine that every kind of qualitative and indefinite sexual factor induces wellbore integrity using probability theory method and method of expertise
The probability of destruction；
Step 4：The risk class of Evaluation: Current factor is calculated using differential technique；
Step 5：Using borda sequence value methods different wellbore integrities are destroyed with the possibility that situation occurs and makees risk ranking；
Step 6：The index importance in pit shaft barrier risk factors is compared according to the risk class ranking results of step 5
Compared with according to analytic hierarchy process (AHP) structural factor importance judgment matrix A calculating weights；If w=(w1, w2..., wn) it is that n ranks judge square
The orderweight vector of battle array, if judgment matrix A is uniformity judgment matrix, characteristic vector corresponding to its Maximum characteristic root λ max
After normalization), it is designated as weight vectors w=(w1, w2... wn)T；
Step 7：Analyzed for the factor of had an impact wellbore integrity failure, it is complete to pit shaft with risk matrix
Property carry out Rate of aggregative risk.
A kind of 2. wellbore integrity integrated risk quantitative calculation method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The step
Rapid 4 calculation formula is as follows：
In formula：R* is the risk class of Evaluation: Current factor；
Its principle is：Assuming that the influence degree S of risk factors is in [S1, S2] between, RP is the possibility that the factor occurs, and RP
In [RP1, RP2] in section, the risk class of the factor is represented with R*, and R* is in [RR1, RR2] in section, then it there is one
Individual and [RR1, RR2] linearly related expression formula and R* can be obtained.
A kind of 3. wellbore integrity integrated risk quantitative calculation method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that：Step 5
It is described that to make risk sort formula as follows：
In formula：The Borda sequence values of B11-current risk factor；
N is current work stage Risk total number；
As k=1, RR111 represents the factor number higher than the venture influence intensity grade of current risk factor；
As k=2, RR112 represents the factor number bigger than current factor risk possibility occurrence.
A kind of 4. wellbore integrity integrated risk quantitative calculation method according to claim 3, it is characterised in that：Step 7
Described in wellbore integrity Rate of aggregative risk calculation formula it is as follows：
In formula：RrijFor risk class quantized value；
UijFor risk factors weight.
A kind of 5. wellbore integrity integrated risk quantitative calculation method according to claim 4, it is characterised in that：The step
The judgment matrix constructed in rapid 6 should have reasonability, generally carry out consistency check to it, if be unsatisfactory for require, it is necessary to
Carry out reconfiguring judgment matrix.
The criterion of check consistency such as following formula：
In formula：CI is uniformity judge index；
N is the exponent number of judgment matrix；
λ max are judgment matrix eigenvalue of maximum；
After coincident indicator CI is drawn, by calculating consistency ration CR, the reasonable of the judgment matrix of construction is weighed with this
Property；
In formula：RI is constant, is changed with judgment matrix exponent number n change；
When result of calculation consistency ration CR is less than 0.1, then the judgement proof constructed has reasonability, if CR is more than 0.1,
The judgment matrix then constructed is without uniformity, it is necessary to rebuild judgment matrix.
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Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109961375A (en) * | 2017-12-22 | 2019-07-02 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | Sand production of oil-gas wells methods of risk assessment and device |
| CN111798131A (en) * | 2020-07-06 | 2020-10-20 | 陕西延长石油（集团）有限责任公司 | Safety risk monitoring method for carbon dioxide flooding injection-production system |
| CN113536230A (en) * | 2020-04-15 | 2021-10-22 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | Gas well safety grade output method, device, equipment and storage medium |
| CN114151073A (en) * | 2020-09-08 | 2022-03-08 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | Method, device and equipment for evaluating failure consequence of gas well barrier |
-
2017
- 2017-07-21 CN CN201710601074.4A patent/CN107403266A/en active Pending
Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109961375A (en) * | 2017-12-22 | 2019-07-02 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | Sand production of oil-gas wells methods of risk assessment and device |
| CN113536230A (en) * | 2020-04-15 | 2021-10-22 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | Gas well safety grade output method, device, equipment and storage medium |
| CN111798131A (en) * | 2020-07-06 | 2020-10-20 | 陕西延长石油（集团）有限责任公司 | Safety risk monitoring method for carbon dioxide flooding injection-production system |
| CN111798131B (en) * | 2020-07-06 | 2024-05-03 | 陕西延长石油（集团）有限责任公司 | Carbon dioxide flooding injection and production system safety risk monitoring method |
| CN114151073A (en) * | 2020-09-08 | 2022-03-08 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | Method, device and equipment for evaluating failure consequence of gas well barrier |
| CN114151073B (en) * | 2020-09-08 | 2023-11-28 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | Method, device and equipment for evaluating barrier failure result of gas well |
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Application publication date: 20171128 |