CN111798131B - Carbon dioxide flooding injection and production system safety risk monitoring method - Google Patents
Carbon dioxide flooding injection and production system safety risk monitoring method Download PDFInfo
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- CN111798131B CN111798131B CN202010638942.8A CN202010638942A CN111798131B CN 111798131 B CN111798131 B CN 111798131B CN 202010638942 A CN202010638942 A CN 202010638942A CN 111798131 B CN111798131 B CN 111798131B
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- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 47
- 238000002347 injection Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 42
- 239000007924 injection Substances 0.000 title claims abstract description 42
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 42
- CURLTUGMZLYLDI-UHFFFAOYSA-N Carbon dioxide Chemical compound O=C=O CURLTUGMZLYLDI-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 title claims abstract description 30
- 229910002092 carbon dioxide Inorganic materials 0.000 title claims abstract description 15
- 239000001569 carbon dioxide Substances 0.000 title claims abstract description 15
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 15
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 19
- 239000011159 matrix material Substances 0.000 claims abstract description 18
- 238000012502 risk assessment Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 5
- 238000006073 displacement reaction Methods 0.000 claims description 19
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 claims description 10
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 claims description 7
- 230000035772 mutation Effects 0.000 claims description 5
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000012163 sequencing technique Methods 0.000 abstract description 3
- 230000015572 biosynthetic process Effects 0.000 description 5
- 230000007797 corrosion Effects 0.000 description 4
- 238000005260 corrosion Methods 0.000 description 4
- OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N Carbon Chemical compound [C] OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 3
- 230000009471 action Effects 0.000 description 3
- 229910052799 carbon Inorganic materials 0.000 description 3
- 239000007789 gas Substances 0.000 description 3
- 230000009467 reduction Effects 0.000 description 3
- 230000008878 coupling Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000010168 coupling process Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000005859 coupling reaction Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 description 2
- 239000005431 greenhouse gas Substances 0.000 description 2
- 230000035945 sensitivity Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000012360 testing method Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000010792 warming Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000035425 carbon utilization Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000007613 environmental effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000000556 factor analysis Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000002440 industrial waste Substances 0.000 description 1
- 230000007246 mechanism Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000011084 recovery Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000004044 response Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000007789 sealing Methods 0.000 description 1
Classifications
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/10—Services
- G06Q50/26—Government or public services
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A10/00—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE at coastal zones; at river basins
- Y02A10/40—Controlling or monitoring, e.g. of flood or hurricane; Forecasting, e.g. risk assessment or mapping
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
- Y02P90/00—Enabling technologies with a potential contribution to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mitigation
- Y02P90/80—Management or planning
- Y02P90/84—Greenhouse gas [GHG] management systems
Abstract
The invention discloses a safety risk monitoring method of a carbon dioxide flooding injection and production system, which comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of (1) inputting service parameters of the injection and production well pipe column; (2) risk source analysis; (3) risk source management: the information of the risk sources and the corresponding control measures are arranged; (4) risk matrix analysis: performing operation analysis through a model in the risk matrix analysis to obtain risk levels, information descriptions and failure modes, and forming a complete failure mode library aiming at equipment or production process; (5) quantitative risk analysis: and sequencing the risk sources, calculating the duty ratio of the failure mode, and finding potential problems according to the duty ratio of the failure mode. By the method provided by the invention, staff can prepare for possible risks in the carbon dioxide flooding injection and production process, can timely cope with the risks, can find potential risk problems, and provides early warning to reduce losses.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of CO 2 oil displacement, and particularly relates to a safety risk monitoring method for a carbon dioxide oil displacement injection and production system.
Background
Carbon dioxide (CO 2) is one of the internationally recognized greenhouse gases, the emission of which is an important factor in global climate warming and in elevation at sea level. In recent years, reduction of CO 2 emissions has become the most important international environmental issue. CO 2 is captured, transported, utilized and stored (CCUS) as one of effective ways for reducing CO 2 emission, is beneficial to reducing greenhouse gas emission and controlling global warming, has wide application prospect, and is increasingly valued by the carbon emission reduction industry at home and abroad. Along with the increase of carbon utilization requirements and the development of technology, the recent development of CCUS technology is rapid, and the utilization and the sealing of carbon are realized simultaneously through the recovery ratio and the emission reduction of carbon by injecting CO 2 in industrial waste gas after being trapped and purified into an oil reservoir for displacement of reservoir oil. The stress corrosion sensitivity of the pipe of the CO 2 injection and production system, the high-risk corrosion mode possibly caused by the stress corrosion sensitivity, the mechanical response mechanism of a well pipe column under the action of multi-field coupling, and the expansion rule of well pipe structure cracks and interface cracks under the action of multi-field coupling become key scientific problems of CO 2 oil displacement. The key technologies such as a CO 2 oil displacement injection and production system risk factor analysis method and a safety risk monitoring method are explored, a complete CO 2 injection and production system safety risk monitoring method is constructed, safety evaluation and risk management of the injection and production system are realized, early warning is provided for potential dangerous sources, and reliable guarantee can be provided for safe production on site.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problem of providing a safety risk monitoring method for a CO 2 oil displacement injection and production system, which can provide safety guarantee for a carbon dioxide deoiling site.
A carbon dioxide flooding injection and production system safety risk monitoring method comprises the following steps:
(1) Entering service parameters of the injection and production well pipe column: recording service parameters of the injection well string and storing the service parameters as a data table;
(2) Risk source analysis: identifying common risk sources in a CO 2 oil displacement injection and production system, listing the risk sources, and providing information of the risk sources for a user to search the risk sources;
(3) Risk source management: the information of the risk sources and the corresponding control measures are arranged;
(4) Risk matrix analysis: performing operation analysis through a model in the risk matrix analysis to obtain risk levels, information descriptions and failure modes, and forming a complete failure mode library aiming at equipment or production process;
(5) Quantitative risk analysis: and sequencing the risk sources, calculating the duty ratio of the failure mode, and finding potential problems according to the duty ratio of the failure mode.
Preferably, the injection and production well string service parameters of step (1) include, but are not limited to, at least one of well bore data, process data, gas source data, formation data, equipment data, experimental data, or literature data.
Preferably, the common risk sources in the CO 2 flooding injection and production system are specifically as follows: and establishing a model of CO 2 oil displacement injection and production risk cause by using a risk factor nonlinear fitting method and a sharp point mutation theory, and combining the model and a HAZOP technology (dangerous and operability analysis technology) to establish a model for identifying a risk source in the CO 2 oil displacement injection and production process.
Preferably, the information of the risk source in the step (2) includes a risk type and a risk specific content.
Preferably, the risk sources and the corresponding control measures are arranged in a step-by-step display mode, namely, the risk types, the specific risk contents and the control measures are sequentially displayed.
Preferably, the method used in step (5) for ranking the risk sources is a risk order method.
The invention has the advantages that:
by the method provided by the invention, staff can prepare for possible risks in the carbon dioxide flooding injection and production process, can timely cope with the risks, can find potential risk problems, and provides early warning, so that reliable guarantee can be provided for safe production on site, and loss is reduced.
Detailed Description
Example 1
A carbon dioxide flooding injection and production system safety risk monitoring method comprises the following steps:
(1) Entering service parameters of the injection and production well pipe column: logging well data, process data, air source data, stratum data, equipment data, experimental data and literature data, and storing the well data, the process data, the air source data, the stratum data, the equipment data and the experimental data as a data table; when the data is recorded, the data can be extracted from Word or Excel documents, and then converted and stored into a required data table; the well string service parameters include, but are not limited to, at least one of well bore data, process data, gas source data, formation data, equipment data, experimental data, or literature data, if more accurate data information is available, may also be entered;
(2) Risk source analysis: firstly, identifying common risk sources in a CO 2 oil displacement injection and production system, combining key links of the CO 2 oil displacement injection and production system, comprehensively considering mutation points and rheological points in a theoretical rule, establishing a model of CO 2 injection and production risk cause by using a risk factor nonlinear fitting method and a cusp mutation theory, and combining the model and a HAZOP technology to construct a model for identifying risk sources of corrosion, mechanics, geology, production and the like in the CO 2 oil displacement injection and production process; verifying the influence of dynamic evolution of each risk source on the model by a complex dynamic network modeling method; then, the risk sources are listed, so that staff can prepare possible risks, common risk sources in a CO 2 oil displacement injection and production system are listed, and information of the risk sources including risk types and risk specific contents is provided for users to search the risk sources; under the condition that a user does not know which type of information the retrieved content belongs to, directly performing fuzzy retrieval on all information, and listing all risk source names containing the content according to the result;
(3) Risk factor management: the information of the risk sources and the corresponding control measures are arranged, so that on-site workers know the predicted risk, and once an accident occurs, the measures to be taken can be clearly known, and in operation, a step-by-step display mode is adopted, namely, after the risk sources are displayed, the risk types, the specific contents of the risks and the control measures are sequentially displayed; for example, after clicking a certain record in the risk sources, sequentially displaying the corresponding risk types, the specific risk content and the control measures; the accurate retrieval of the risk sources can be realized according to the information of the risk sources, such as names, types and the like, through the retrieval items; under the condition that the user does not know which type of information the retrieved content belongs to, a specific retrieval item can be not selected, fuzzy retrieval can be directly carried out on all information, and the result lists all risk source names containing the content;
(4) Risk matrix analysis: the risk level, the information description and the failure mode of a risk source are obtained through operation analysis of a model in the risk matrix analysis, and a complete failure mode library aiming at equipment or production technology is formed, wherein the method comprises the following steps of:
The method comprises the steps of establishing a risk matrix model of 3-order or 5-order type according to the needs, wherein the final risk level of each element in the matrix is the lowest under the default condition, modifying the risk matrix according to the needs, and then adding corresponding failure probability, consequences and risk information description for each element; in the process of risk evaluation, the severity of the consequences of the risk event is relatively and qualitatively divided into a plurality of stages, the probability of occurrence of the risk event is also relatively and qualitatively divided into a plurality of stages, then the severity is taken as a table column, the probability is taken as a table row, a table is made, qualitative weighted indexes are given on the intersection points of the table column and the table row, all weighted indexes form a matrix, and each index represents a risk grade;
(5) Quantitative risk analysis: the risk sources are sequenced by adopting a risk sequence number method, the duty ratio of the failure mode is calculated, and potential problems are found according to the duty ratio condition of the failure mode; the higher the frequency of occurrence of failure modes, the higher the proportion, the higher the probability of occurrence of risk sources, and the earlier the ranking, the more important the precaution should be; the failure mode duty cycle is illustrated in a two-dimensional or three-dimensional form.
Example 2
A carbon dioxide flooding injection and production system safety risk monitoring method comprises the following steps:
(1) Logging formation data (including formation temperature and formation pressure monitoring data) at a certain time according to the knowledge of an injection and production system to form a data table;
(2) Establishing a model of CO 2 oil displacement injection and production risk cause by using a risk factor nonlinear fitting method and a sharp point mutation theory, combining the model and a HAZOP technology, constructing a model for identifying a risk source in the CO 2 oil displacement injection and production process, analyzing the risk source, determining the temperature and the pressure as the risk source, listing the temperature and the pressure, and providing risk types and risk specific contents thereof, so that staff can prepare possible risks for searching the risk source by a user;
(3) The information of two risk sources of temperature and pressure and corresponding control measures are arranged, so that on-site staff can know the predicted danger, and can clearly know the measures to be taken after the accident happens, and in operation, a step-by-step display mode is adopted,
(4) According to the critical values determined by the indoor test, the field experience and the literature data, after risk matrix analysis, the risk grade and the failure mode of the temperature and the pressure under the independent and combined action are given, and the risk information description is added;
(5) And (3) sequencing the risk sources by adopting a risk sequence number method through quantitative risk analysis, calculating the duty ratio of the failure mode, finding potential problems according to the duty ratio condition of the failure mode, early warning on site personnel, and processing the most serious risk source. When a certain risk source does not appear, but an accident is generated due to the risk factor or the accident is generated after the risk factor and other risk sources are combined, the risk matrix is fed back to risk factor management after analysis and is brought into the risk source, and workers can guide the subsequent production according to the critical value determined by the indoor test, the field experience and the literature data.
Claims (4)
1. A safety risk monitoring method for a carbon dioxide flooding injection and production system is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the method comprises the following steps:
(1) Entering service parameters of the injection and production well pipe column: recording service parameters of the injection well string and storing the service parameters as a data table;
(2) Risk source analysis: identifying common risk sources in a CO 2 oil displacement injection and production system, listing the risk sources, and providing information of the risk sources for a user to search the risk sources;
(3) Risk source management: the information of the risk sources and the corresponding control measures are arranged;
(4) Risk matrix analysis: the risk level, the information description and the failure mode are obtained through operation analysis by a model in the risk matrix analysis, and a complete failure mode library aiming at equipment or production technology is formed, specifically as follows:
The method comprises the steps of establishing a risk matrix model of 3-order or 5-order type according to the needs, wherein the final risk level of each element in the matrix is the lowest under the default condition, modifying the risk matrix according to the needs, and then adding corresponding failure probability, consequences and risk information description for each element; in the process of risk evaluation, the severity of the consequences of the risk event is relatively and qualitatively divided into a plurality of stages, the probability of occurrence of the risk event is also relatively and qualitatively divided into a plurality of stages, then the severity is taken as a table column, the probability is taken as a table row, a table is made, qualitative weighted indexes are given on the intersection points of the table column and the table row, all weighted indexes form a matrix, and each index represents a risk grade;
(5) Quantitative risk analysis: sorting the risk sources, calculating the duty ratio of the failure mode, and finding potential problems according to the duty ratio of the failure mode;
The service parameters of the injection well string in the step (1) comprise at least one of well body data, process data, air source data, stratum data, equipment data, experimental data or literature data;
Common risk sources in the identification CO 2 oil displacement injection and production system are specifically as follows: and establishing a model of CO 2 oil displacement injection and production risk cause by using a risk factor nonlinear fitting method and a sharp point mutation theory, and combining the model and a HAZOP technology to establish a model for identifying a risk source in the CO 2 oil displacement injection and production process.
2. The method for monitoring the safety risk of a carbon dioxide flooding injection and production system according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps of: the information of the risk source in the step (2) comprises a risk type and risk specific content.
3. The method for monitoring the safety risk of the carbon dioxide flooding injection and production system according to claim 2, wherein the method comprises the following steps of: and the risk sources and the corresponding control measures are arranged in a step-by-step display mode, namely, the risk types, the specific risk contents and the control measures are sequentially displayed.
4. The method for monitoring the safety risk of the carbon dioxide flooding injection and production system according to claim 3, wherein the method comprises the following steps of: the method adopted in the step (5) for sorting the risk sources is a risk sequence number.
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2020
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| CN101853436A (en) * | 2010-04-30 | 2010-10-06 | 中国环境科学研究院 | Water pollution accident risk source recognition method |
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