CN109697314B - Method for calculating maximum movement distance of ice collapse and application thereof - Google Patents
Method for calculating maximum movement distance of ice collapse and application thereof Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for calculating the maximum movement distance of ice collapse and application thereof, comprising the following steps: b. surveying, mapping and determining basic data c of potential ice collapses and determining a main parameter height difference H of the maximum movement distance of the ice collapses; d. determining a motion track of the ice-crumbled body during ice-crumbling from the most front end of the ice-crumbled body; e. determining a plurality of measuring and calculating points along the ice collapse motion trajectory line, and measuring the H/L value of each measuring and calculating point; when the motion trail reaches the ice lake, the river and the reverse hillside, the measuring and calculating point is still set according to the motion trail. f. And comparing the H/L value of each measuring and calculating point, and when the value of the measuring and calculating point is equal to the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV, determining the position of the measuring and calculating point as the most front edge position of the ice collapse accumulation, wherein the movement horizontal path L is the maximum movement distance of the ice collapse, and determining the maximum danger range of the ice collapse according to the position. The method accurately calculates the maximum movement distance of the ice collapse in a quantitative mode, and greatly improves the disaster prevention applicability.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of disaster prevention and control engineering in alpine mountain areas, in particular to a method for calculating the maximum movement distance of an ice cave and application thereof.
Background
Ice collapse is a natural phenomenon that occurs in alpine mountainous areas. After the ice collapses, the ice blocks move to the hillside or the roadside, and are silted and impacted on building facilities or roads such as residential houses, high-voltage electric wire towers and the like nearby, so that the great damage is caused. The ice blocks generated by ice collapse can also rush into the ice lake under the mountain to form huge swell, raise the water level of the ice lake, trigger the collapse of the ice lake, form a debris flow of the collapse of the ice lake, then rush into a downstream river channel to block the river channel, and then burst again to form a secondary disaster chain. Therefore, the ice collapse may not only damage the range under the nearby hillside, but also affect the upstream and downstream of the river channel, causing great disasters. The occurrence of the ice collapse is usually caused by the fact that the front part of the glacier is completely separated from the glacier body under the action of continuous tension due to the fact that tension cracks are formed on the upper edge of the front part of the glacier, and the ice collapse is formed due to sudden change of air temperature. Rainfall also aggravates the occurrence of such ice pops.
At present, scholars at home and abroad have very little research on ice collapse movement. Yujing Rui et al (Yujing Rui, jianlianjie, tian Wen, et al, research on friction coefficient of Red-flag foam reservoir Ice, collection of technical and scientific research on Water conservancy project (seventh Collection), 49-52, huanghe Water conservancy Press, 2010, pp338) studied the dynamic friction coefficient of different bottom materials on an ice body at the same speed, and concluded that the influence of contact materials on the friction of the ice body can be ignored. Mengdalin et al (Mengdalin, zhang Ming Yuan, suizhi, et al, sea ice and material friction coefficient test analysis, ocean environmental science, 1995, 14 (1), 74-80) studied the ice body friction coefficients under different ice body movement speeds and different positive pressures, and the results show that the dynamic friction coefficient is reduced more with the increase of the positive pressure at the same speed.
In the research of landslide and debris flow, the ratio H/L of the motion height difference H and the motion distance L is often adopted as the basis for judging the danger range. Salzmann et al (Association of the salt potential of ice avalanches using removal sensing and GIS-modelling (methods for assessing the potential risk of ice avalanches using remote sensing and gravity simulation), journal of Geography,2004, vol.58, 74-84) studied the relationship between the distance of movement and the height difference of ice collapses, using an empirical method in the alpine region: the maximum movement distance is 6km and the H/L is more than or equal to 0.31, so that the ice collapse danger range is defined. But for a very high mountain area, such as the mountain area in Tibet of China, the height difference may be very large, and 6km may be smaller; but 6km is too large for ice breakouts with smaller height differences. And the recently occurring ice collapse shows that the judgment basis of H/L being more than or equal to 0.31 excessively underestimates the movement distance of the ice collapse. Al et al
The empirical method in the alpine region is based on ice breakings with small volumes (< 100 cubic million), and when the ice breakings are large in volume (> 100 cubic million), particularly above 1000 cubic million, the value of H/L which is larger than or equal to 0.31 is too large, and the corresponding danger range is too small. Even collapsed H/L, it is possible to move over glaciers to the extent that H/L is less than or equal to 0.14 at larger volumes. Lipovsk y et al (The July 2007 rock and ice avalanches at Mount Steele, st. Elias Mount amines, yukon, canada, landsides (2008) 5. Eckerstorfer and Christiansen (Relating to the quantitative variations to the natural slab avalanche region in High Arctic Svalbard, cold Regions Science and Technology 69 (2011) 184-193) investigated the H/L value of bulk avalanches, all from the smallest 0.035 to 0.7, accounting for 20% below 0.087.
In these studies, the maximum movement distance of the ice collapse was not studied in more detail, and the maximum movement distance of the ice collapse was a basis for determining the maximum risk range of the ice collapse. The ice cave maximum movement distance is calculated accurately, the maximum danger range is divided, and a powerful basis can be provided for reducing ice cave disasters.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for calculating the maximum movement distance of an ice cave, and solves the problem that the maximum movement distance of the ice cave is not researched in more detail in the prior art. The invention establishes a more accurate calculation method of the maximum movement distance of the ice collapse, and is a calculation method for judging the maximum danger range of the ice collapse, which can determine the maximum movement distance of the ice collapse body and the most front edge of the ice collapse accumulation point and divide the maximum danger range; the motion characteristics of the ice collapses and the influence factors of special landforms are comprehensively considered, the maximum motion distance of the ice collapses is accurately divided in a quantitative mode, and the disaster prevention applicability is greatly improved; meanwhile, the danger range of ice collapse can be judged without a large amount of historical observation data of ice collapse, and the disaster prevention applicability is greatly improved.
The invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
a method for calculating the maximum movement distance of an ice cave comprises the following steps:
a. judging whether the property of the glaciers with the ice collapse risk is continental glaciers, marine glaciers or suspended glaciers according to the position of the potential ice collapse body to be analyzed and by combining geographical knowledge;
glaciers with the attributes of dry climate, less snowfall, lower negative temperature, higher snow lines, less income, less expenditure, weak activity, shorter glaciers and weaker geological and geomorphic effects of the glaciers belong to continental glaciers, and conversely belong to marine glaciers; the ice-water surface is hung on glaciers on hillsides without falling to hillsides, the scale of the glaciers is small, the thickness of ice bodies is thin, and the area of the glaciers is usually less than 1km2The glaciers are dangling glaciers.
b. And (4) surveying, mapping and determining basic data of the potential ice collapses, wherein the basic data comprises the back end position of the potential ice collapses, the front end position of the potential ice collapses, the average length and the average width of the potential ice collapses and the calculated area A of the potential ice collapses, and the unit is m2And the volume V of the ice-crumbled body, the unit is m3, and the thickness D of the ice-crumbled body is calculated by the following formula;
in the above, the rear end position of the potential ice-breaking body is the position of the ice-breaking crack, that is, the position of the ice-breaking body breaking from the glacier; calculating the area A of the ice-crumbled body by using the existing calculation formula;
surveying and mapping to determine the basic data of the glaciers with the potential ice-breaking bodies, wherein the basic data comprises the length and the width of the glaciers and the calculated area F of the glaciers, and the unit is km2Calculating the thickness D of the potential ice-crumbled body according to the glacier area F, wherein the unit is m; the glacier area F is calculated by the existing calculation formula;
the calculation formula of the thickness D of the potential ice collapse bodies of the continental glaciers, the marine glaciers and the suspended glaciers is as follows:
for marine glaciers:
D=5.2+15.4F0.5 formula one
For continental glaciers:
D=-11.32+53.21F0.3formula two
For glacier area less than 1km2Glacier suspension of (1):
D=34.4F0.45formula III
The formula for calculating the thickness of glaciers is derived from the calculation of the thickness and the reserve of the glaciers in Tianshan mountain (seventh volume of the second phase of magazine in Xinjiang geography, suzhen, dingliangfu and Liu dynasty).
c. Determining a main parameter height difference H of the maximum movement distance of the ice cave, wherein the unit is m and the unit is m;
wherein, the elevation difference H at a certain position is the difference between the elevation (also called the altitude) at the rearmost end of the ice collapse body (also called the highest position of the potential ice collapse body) and the elevation at the certain position;
the horizontal distance L at a certain position is the horizontal distance from the position (the position is also called as the starting point of the ice-crumbled body) at the rearmost end of the ice-crumbled body (also called as the highest position of the potential ice-crumbled body) to the position, namely the horizontal distance from the starting point of the ice-crumbled body at a certain position;
the minimum value of H/L corresponds to the maximum distance of ice collapse movement, and corresponds to the maximum danger range of ice collapse; the minimum H/L value is calculated by the following method:
H/L=3.5(LogV)-1.7 formula four
Wherein Log is a common logarithm, and the base number is a logarithm of 10;
the volume V of the ice collapse body is calculated by the formula V:
v = AD formula five
d. Determining a motion track of the ice-crumbled body during ice-crumbling from the most front end of the ice-crumbled body;
e. determining a plurality of measuring and calculating points along the ice collapse motion trajectory line, measuring the elevation (altitude) of each measuring and calculating the elevation difference H; measuring the horizontal distance L between each measuring point and the final end of the ice collapse and calculating the H/L value of each measuring point;
when the motion trail reaches the ice lake, the river and the reverse hillside, the measuring and calculating point is still set according to the motion trail, the measuring and calculating point is set in the ice lake, the river crossing range and the reverse hillside, and the H/L value is calculated.
f. And comparing the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV with the H/L value of each measuring and calculating point, wherein the H/L value of each measuring and calculating point is gradually reduced from the lower end of the ice disintegrating body to the downstream along the motion track of the ice disintegrating body, when the value of the measuring and calculating point is equal to the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV, the position of the measuring and calculating point is the position of the forefront of ice disintegrating accumulation, the motion horizontal path L is the maximum motion distance of the ice disintegrating, and the maximum danger range of the ice disintegrating can also be determined according to the position.
The ice cave can move for a long distance in a mountain area under the driving of gravity, and the main reason is that the resistance of ice, snow and the like under the relief of the mountain area is still very small. Being gravity driven, it is relatively less affected by ground factors and therefore its distance of movement is more highly correlated with its falling elevation, i.e. H/L is a relatively small range. Ice collapse does not have a wide range of H/L due to terrain and bottom drag as do landslides and landslides.
The current domestic and foreign research does not obtain a relatively consistent H/L value range of the ice-crumbled body. The main reasons are as follows: 1. the most front end of the ice collapse movement is an ice lake, so that the ice collapse movement distance L is reduced, and the H/L is increased; 2. the most front end of the ice collapse movement is a river, so that the ice collapse movement distance L is reduced, and the H/L is increased; 3. the most front end of the ice collapse movement is a mountain, so that the ice collapse movement distance L is reduced, and the H/L is increased. These reasons make most of the ice collapse cases have larger H/L values, and increase the range of H/L values. The invention filters out the influence of the reasons on the H/L value under the condition of fully considering the characteristics of ice collapse body movement, and finally obtains the minimum H/L value calculating method. The minimum H/L value is the key for determining the maximum movement distance of the ice cave body and the maximum danger range of the ice cave body.
The above reasons are also taken into account when determining the actual maximum movement distance of the ice cave: i.e., the ice lake, river, mountain, etc., becomes the last area of the ice collapse risk zone. Therefore, the accurate maximum movement distance of the ice cave can be determined, and the maximum movement distance of the ice lake, the river and the mountain area can not be judged by mistake. By comprehensively considering the motion characteristics of the ice collapse and the influence factors of special landforms, the maximum motion distance of the ice collapse is accurately calculated in a quantitative mode, the danger range of the ice collapse is accurately divided, and the disaster prevention applicability is greatly improved.
The method determines the length, width and area of the ice collapse body and the glacier through survey and mapping, calculates the thickness and volume of the ice collapse body, and calculates the minimum H/L value of the ice collapse according to the volume; and then, by determining the elevation and the position of the rearmost end of the ice-crumbled body and the track of the ice-crumbled body moving along the slope surface or along the valley, measuring the elevation and the horizontal distance of a measuring and calculating point along the track, and determining the maximum moving distance of the ice-crumbled body and the forefront of the ice-crumbled point when the calculated H/L value of the measuring and calculating point is equal to the calculated minimum H/L value, thereby dividing the maximum danger range during the ice-crumbling of the mountains.
Meanwhile, the invention can also consider the maximum movement distance of special landforms such as ice lakes, rivers, mountains and the like in the ice cave movement range. As a complete technical scheme, the maximum movement distance of the ice collapse is accurately divided in a quantitative mode by comprehensively considering the movement characteristics of the ice collapse and the influence factors of special landforms, and the disaster prevention applicability is greatly improved.
Based on the application of the calculation method for the maximum movement distance of the ice cave, the calculation method is applied to determining the maximum danger range of the ice cave body on the glacier during ice cave.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages and beneficial effects:
1. the method for calculating the maximum movement distance of the ice cave can determine the accurate maximum movement distance of the ice cave, and cannot judge the maximum movement distance of the ice lake, river and mountain area wrongly. By comprehensively considering the motion characteristics of the ice cave and the influence factors of special landforms, the maximum motion distance of the ice cave is accurately calculated in a quantitative mode, the danger range of the ice cave is accurately divided, and the disaster prevention applicability is greatly improved;
2. according to the method for calculating the maximum movement distance of the ice collapse, a more accurate method for calculating the maximum movement distance of the ice collapse is established, and a method for calculating the maximum danger range of the ice collapse is also judged, so that the maximum movement distance of the ice collapse body and the most front edge of the ice collapse accumulation point can be determined, and the maximum danger range is divided; the motion characteristics of the ice collapses and the influence factors of special landforms are comprehensively considered, the maximum motion distance of the ice collapses is accurately divided in a quantitative mode, and the disaster prevention applicability is greatly improved;
3. according to the method for calculating the maximum movement distance of the ice collapse, the danger range of the ice collapse can be judged without a large amount of historical observation data of the ice collapse, and the disaster prevention applicability is greatly improved.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the embodiments of the invention and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiment(s) of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the principles of the invention. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is an image of glacier before it collapses;
FIG. 2 is an image of a frozen glacier.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to examples and the accompanying drawings, and the exemplary embodiments and descriptions thereof are only used for explaining the present invention and are not used as limiting the present invention.
Example 1
The invention discloses a method for calculating the maximum movement distance of ice collapse, which comprises the following steps of:
a. judging whether the property of the glaciers with the ice collapse risk is continental glaciers, marine glaciers or suspended glaciers according to the position of the potential ice collapse body to be analyzed and by combining geographical knowledge;
glaciers with the attributes of dry climate, less snowfall, lower negative temperature, higher snow line, less income, less expenditure, weak activity, shorter ice tongue and weaker geological and landform effects of glaciers belong to continental glaciers, and conversely belong to marine glaciers; the ice-water surface is hung on glaciers on hillsides without falling to hillsides, the scale of the glaciers is small, the thickness of ice bodies is thin, and the area of the glaciers is usually less than 1km2The glaciers in (1) are dangling glaciers.
b. Survey and drawing to determine basic data of the potential ice collapses, wherein the basic data comprises the back end position of the potential ice collapses, the front end position of the potential ice collapses, the average length and the average width of the potential ice collapses and the calculated area A of the potential ice collapses, and the unit is m2And the volume V of the ice-crumbled body, the unit is m3, and the thickness D of the ice-crumbled body is calculated by the following formula;
in the above, the rear end position of the potential ice-breaking body is the position of the ice-breaking crack, that is, the position where the ice-breaking body breaks from the glacier; calculating the area A of the ice-crumbled body by using the existing calculation formula;
surveying and mapping to determine the basic data of the glaciers with the potential ice-breaking bodies, wherein the basic data comprises the length and the width of the glaciers and the calculated area F of the glaciers, and the unit is km2Calculating the thickness D of the potential ice collapse body from the glacier area F, wherein the unit is m; the glacier area F is calculated by the existing calculation formula;
the calculation formula of the thickness D of the potential ice collapse bodies of the continental glaciers, the marine glaciers and the suspended glaciers is as follows:
for marine glaciers:
D=5.2+15.4F0.5 formula one
For continental glaciers:
D=-11.32+53.21F0.3formula two
For glacier area less than 1km2Glacier suspension of (1):
D=34.4F0.45formula III
The formula for calculating the thickness of glaciers is derived from the calculation of the thickness and the reserve of the glaciers in Tianshan mountain (seventh volume of the second phase of magazine in Xinjiang geography, suzhen, dingliangfu and Liu dynasty).
c. Determining a main parameter height difference H of the maximum movement distance of the ice cave, wherein the unit is m and the unit is m;
wherein, the elevation difference H at a certain position is the difference between the elevation (also called the altitude) at the rearmost end of the ice collapse body (also called the highest position of the potential ice collapse body) and the elevation at the certain position;
the horizontal distance L at a certain position is the horizontal distance from the position (the position is also called as the starting point of the ice-crumbled body) at the rearmost end of the ice-crumbled body (also called as the highest position of the potential ice-crumbled body) to the position, namely the horizontal distance from the starting point of the ice-crumbled body at a certain position;
the minimum value of H/L corresponds to the maximum distance of ice collapse movement, and corresponds to the maximum danger range of ice collapse; the minimum H/L value is calculated by the following method:
H/L=3.5(LogV)-1.7 formula four
Wherein Log is a common logarithm, and the base number is a logarithm of 10;
the volume V of the ice collapse body is calculated by the formula V:
v = AD formula five
d. Determining a motion track of the ice-breaking body during ice breaking from the most front end of the ice-breaking body;
e. determining a plurality of measuring and calculating points along the ice collapse motion trajectory line, measuring the elevation (altitude) of each measuring and calculating the elevation difference H; measuring the horizontal distance L between each measuring point and the final end of the ice collapse and calculating the H/L value of each measuring point;
when the motion trail reaches the ice lake, the river and the reverse slope, the measuring and calculating point is still set according to the motion trail, the measuring and calculating point is set in the ice lake, across the river range and on the reverse slope, and the H/L value is calculated until the H/L value of the measuring and calculating point is equal to the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV.
f. And comparing the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV with the H/L value of each measuring and calculating point, wherein the H/L value of each measuring and calculating point is gradually reduced from the lower end of the ice collapse body to the downstream along the motion track of the ice collapse body, when the value of the measuring and calculating point is equal to the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV, the position of the measuring and calculating point is the most front edge position of ice collapse accumulation, the motion horizontal path L is the maximum motion distance of the ice collapse, and the maximum risk range of the ice collapse can also be determined according to the position.
The ice avalanche can move for a long distance in a mountain area under the driving of gravity, and the main reason is that the resistance of ice, snow and the like under the relief of the mountain area is still very small. Being gravity driven, it is relatively less affected by ground factors and therefore its distance of movement is more highly correlated to its falling elevation, i.e. H/L is a relatively small range. Ice collapse does not have a wide range of H/L due to terrain and bottom drag as do landslides and landslides.
The current domestic and foreign research does not obtain a relatively consistent H/L value range of the ice-disintegrating bodies. The main reasons are as follows: 1. the most front end of the ice collapse movement is an ice lake, so that the ice collapse movement distance L is reduced, and the H/L is increased; 2. the most front end of the ice collapse movement is a river, so that the ice collapse movement distance L is reduced, and the H/L is increased; 3. the most front end of the ice collapse movement is a mountain, so that the ice collapse movement distance L is reduced, and the H/L is increased. These reasons make most of the ice collapse cases have larger H/L values, and increase the range of H/L values. The invention filters the influence of the reasons on the H/L value under the condition of fully considering the characteristics of the ice-collapse body movement, and finally obtains the minimum H/L value calculating method. The minimum H/L value is the key for determining the maximum movement distance of the ice-breaking body and the maximum danger range of the ice-breaking body.
The above reasons are also taken into account when determining the actual maximum movement distance of the ice cave: namely, the ice lake, river, mountain, etc. become the last area of the ice collapse risk zone. Therefore, the accurate maximum movement distance of the ice cave can be determined, and the maximum movement distance of the regions with the ice lakes, rivers and mountains cannot be judged wrongly. By comprehensively considering the motion characteristics of the ice collapse and the influence factors of special landforms, the maximum motion distance of the ice collapse is accurately calculated in a quantitative mode, the danger range of the ice collapse is accurately divided, and the disaster prevention applicability is greatly improved.
The method determines the length, width and area of the ice-crumbled body and the glacier through survey and mapping, calculates the thickness and volume of the ice-crumbled body, and calculates the minimum H/L value of the ice-crumbled body according to the volume; and then, by determining the elevation and the position of the rearmost end of the ice-crumbled body and the track of the ice-crumbled body moving along the slope surface or along the valley, measuring the elevation and the horizontal distance of a measuring and calculating point along the track, and determining the maximum moving distance of the ice-crumbled body and the forefront of the ice-crumbled point when the calculated H/L value of the measuring and calculating point is equal to the calculated minimum H/L value, thereby dividing the maximum danger range during the ice-crumbling of the mountains.
Meanwhile, the maximum movement distance of the ice lake, river, mountain range and other special landforms in the ice cave movement range can be considered. As a complete technical scheme, the maximum movement distance of the ice collapse is accurately divided in a quantitative mode by comprehensively considering the movement characteristics of the ice collapse and the influence factors of special landforms, and the disaster prevention applicability is greatly improved.
Example 2
This example is based on example 1 and further illustrates the present invention.
The invention relates to a method for calculating the maximum movement distance of ice collapse, which further comprises a step g after the step f: when the H/L value of the measuring point more than 2 is equal to the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV, the measuring point at the most upstream end (namely, the position closest to the ice crumbles) is taken as the final ice crumbles accumulation point.
Example 3
This example is based on example 1 and further illustrates the present invention.
The invention relates to a method for calculating the maximum movement distance of ice collapse, which further comprises a step g' after the step f: when the distance between the measuring points is larger, and the H/L values of two adjacent measuring points from top to bottom are respectively the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV and the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV, the measuring points are encrypted between the two measuring points until the measuring points equal to the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV are obtained.
Example 4
This example is based on examples 1-3 and further illustrates the present invention.
The invention relates to a method for calculating the maximum movement distance of ice collapse, which further comprises a step h after the step e: when the motion trail of the ice collapse body reaches the ice lake, the river and the reverse slope, the measuring and calculating points are still set according to the motion trail, the measuring and calculating points are set in the ice lake, across the river range and on the reverse slope, and the H/L value is calculated until the H/L value of the measuring and calculating points is equal to the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV.
Step h may be located between steps e and f or between f and g 'or after g'.
Therefore, according to the actual geographic environment of glaciers, the calculation method in the invention can adopt the method abcdef, abcdefg ', abcdehf, abcdefhg ', abcdefgh or abcdefg ' h.
Example 5
In the step d, the motion trail is determined as follows: the ice cave moves along the middle lowest connecting line of the valleys (namely the moving central line of the rolling of the ice cave body), and the wide slope without the valleys moves linearly along the falling direction of the ice cave.
Example 6
Based on the application of the calculation method for the maximum movement distance of the ice cave, the calculation method is applied to determining the maximum danger range of the ice cave body on the glacier during ice cave.
Further, the gradient α of the bottom of the ice disintegrating body is as follows: alpha is more than or equal to 25 degrees and less than or equal to 65 degrees. The method is suitable for dividing the ice collapse danger range of the ice collapse body bottom slope with the gradient of 25-65 degrees. The ice cave forming reasons and the initial movement modes of the ice cave are different for the ice caves with different bottom slope gradients, and the applicable ice cave bottom slope gradient range of the invention is 25-65 degrees
Further, the volume of the ice disintegrating body is 1 to 10 billionth cubic meters. The method is suitable for calculating the maximum movement distance of the ice-collapse body with the volume of 1-10 billionth cubic meter. The maximum movement distance of the ice cave in the range can be calculated by a formula four.
Example 7
This example is an embodiment of calculating the maximum movement distance of an icebreak near arluvia in the ali region of tibet by using the method.
The northern glacier and the southern glacier located in the west region of arlukas in the Tibetan ali of china are respectively subjected to ice collapse in 2016, 7, 17 and 9, 21 days, and fig. 1 is a Google image before ice collapse and fig. 2 is an image after ice collapse.
The glaciers in the area belong to continental glaciers, so the formula II is adopted for calculating the thickness of the ice collapse. The maximum movement distance of an ice cave occurring in the region of arui, tibet is calculated as follows:
table 1 shows the measured and calculated parameters for these two ice breakouts.
| F(km2 ) | A(104 m2 ) | D(m) | V(106 m3 ) | Minimum H/L | H(m) | Maximum L (m) | |
| North glacier | 3 .93 | 84.9 | 68.9 | 58.5 | 0.107 | 908 | 8490 |
| South glacier | 3.99 | 69.6 | 69.2 | 48.2 | 0.109 | 915 | 8365 |
Table 1 gives the calculated maximum ice avalanche movement distance, consistent with the actual final pile-front in fig. 2.
The above-mentioned embodiments, objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention are further described in detail, it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are only examples of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. A method for calculating the maximum movement distance of an ice cave is characterized in that: the method comprises the following steps:
a. judging whether the property of the glaciers with the ice collapse risk is continental glaciers, marine glaciers or suspended glaciers according to the position of the potential ice collapse body to be analyzed and by combining geographical knowledge;
b. survey and drawing to determine basic data of the potential ice collapses, wherein the basic data comprises the back end position of the potential ice collapses, the front end position of the potential ice collapses, the average length and the average width of the potential ice collapses and the calculated area A of the potential ice collapses, and the unit is m2And the volume V of the ice-crumbled body, the unit is m3, and the thickness D of the ice-crumbled body is calculated by the following formula;
surveying and mapping to determine the basic data of the glaciers with the potential ice-breaking bodies, wherein the basic data comprises the length and the width of the glaciers and the calculated area F of the glaciers, and the unit is km2Calculating the thickness D of the potential ice-crumbled body according to the glacier area F, wherein the unit is m; the calculation formula of the thickness D of the potential ice collapse bodies of the continental glaciers, the marine glaciers and the suspended glaciers is as follows:
for marine glaciers:
D=5.2+15.4F0.5 formula one
For continental glaciers:
D=-11.32+53.21F0.3formula two
For glacier area less than 1km2Glacier suspension of (1):
D=34.4F0.45formula three
c. Determining a main parameter height difference H of the maximum movement distance of the ice cave, wherein the unit is m and the unit is m;
wherein the height difference H at a certain position is the difference between the height of the rearmost end of the ice cave body and the height at the position;
the horizontal path L of a certain place is the horizontal path from the position of the rearmost end of the ice-breaking body to the certain place;
the minimum value of H/L corresponds to the maximum distance of ice collapse movement, and corresponds to the maximum danger range of ice collapse; the minimum H/L value is calculated by the following method:
H/L=3.5(LogV)-1.7 formula four
The volume V of the ice-collapsed body is calculated by the formula V:
v = AD formula five
d. Determining a motion track of the ice-crumbled body during ice-crumbling from the most front end of the ice-crumbled body;
e. determining a plurality of measuring and calculating points along the ice collapse motion trajectory line, measuring the elevation of each measuring and calculating the elevation difference H; measuring the horizontal distance L between each measuring point and the final end of the ice collapse and calculating the H/L value of each measuring point;
when the motion trail reaches the ice lake, the river and the reverse hillside, setting a measuring and calculating point according to the motion trail, setting a measuring and calculating point in the ice lake, the river crossing range and the reverse hillside, and calculating the H/L value;
f. and comparing the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV with the H/L value of each measuring and calculating point, wherein the H/L value of each measuring and calculating point is gradually reduced from the lower end of the ice collapse body to the downstream along the motion track of the ice collapse body, when the value of the measuring and calculating point is equal to the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV, the position of the measuring and calculating point is the most front edge position of ice collapse accumulation, the motion horizontal path L is the maximum motion distance of the ice collapse, and the maximum risk range of the ice collapse can also be determined according to the position.
2. The method for calculating the maximum movement distance of the ice cave according to claim 1, characterized in that: further comprising a step g, after step f: and when the H/L value of the measuring and calculating point more than 2 is equal to the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV, taking the measuring and calculating point at the most upstream end as a final ice collapse accumulation point.
3. The method for calculating the maximum movement distance of the ice cave according to claim 1, wherein: further comprising a step g' after step f: when the distance between the measuring points is larger, and the H/L values of two adjacent measuring points from top to bottom are respectively the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV and the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV, the measuring points are encrypted between the two measuring points until the measuring points equal to the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV are obtained.
4. A method for calculating a maximum moving distance of an ice cave according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein: further comprising a step h of, after step e: when the motion trail of the ice collapse body reaches the ice lake, the river and the reverse slope, the measuring and calculating points are still set according to the motion trail, the measuring and calculating points are set in the ice lake, across the river range and on the reverse slope, and the H/L value is calculated until the H/L value of the measuring and calculating points is equal to the minimum H/L value calculated by the formula IV.
5. A method for calculating a maximum moving distance of an ice cave according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein: in the step d, the determination mode of the motion track is as follows: the ice cave moves along the middle lowest connecting line of the valleys when the valleys exist, and moves linearly along the falling direction of the ice cave when the wide slopes without the valleys do not exist.
6. A method for calculating a maximum moving distance of an ice cave according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein: the calculation method is applied to determining the maximum danger range of the icebound body on the glaciers during icebound.
7. The method for calculating the maximum movement distance of the ice cave according to claim 6, wherein: the gradient alpha of the bottom of the ice disintegrating body is as follows: alpha is more than or equal to 25 degrees and less than or equal to 65 degrees.
8. The method for calculating the maximum movement distance of the ice cave according to claim 7, wherein: the volume of the ice disintegrating body is 1-10 billionth cubic meters.
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