CN109685236B - Northern reservoir spring runoff water source analysis method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a northern reservoir spring runoff water source analysis method. The method comprises the following steps: determining a runoff water source by analyzing the change rule of the daily scale runoff curve of the reservoir in the spring of the previous year, dividing the daily scale runoff into surface runoff and subsurface runoff, calculating a base flow ratio, determining the start and stop dates of each runoff water source in the past year according to the base flow ratio curve, drawing a box diagram of the start and stop dates of each runoff water source, and describing the rule of the start and stop dates of the runoff water source in the spring of the reservoir based on the statistical characteristic value obtained from the box diagram. The method can provide a foundation for constructing a reliable and suitable runoff forecasting model in spring, and can also be directly used for roughly forecasting the starting and ending dates of various runoff water sources in spring of the next year.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of hydrological analysis and forecasting, in particular to a northern reservoir spring runoff water source analysis method.
Background
The runoff for snow melting in spring in northern China (such as northeast) is the main runoff source for spring flood and is also the second centralized incoming water period except for the summer flood. At the moment, the requirement of irrigation water is large when the farming and seeding season is met; meanwhile, the time period is also a water period for shipping. Under the premise of reasonably guessing the incoming water date of the snow-melting runoff in spring flood, a reservoir dispatching scheme is scientifically and reasonably formulated, so that the agricultural water supply requirement and the shipping water requirement can be ensured, the storage capacity can be reserved for later flood prevention, and the efficient development and utilization of water resources are realized.
The complex composition of the water sources for the spring flood in the north causes that the starting and ending dates and the division of the current production stage are difficult. The runoff in the spring flood of the drainage basin has more sources, and has bottom water in the early stage, accumulated snowfall in the early stage and rainfall in the spring flood period, and meanwhile, the influence of factors such as frozen and thawed frozen soil, high and low temperature and the like is also considered. Due to the influence of the complexity of the water source composition of the incoming water from spring flood, the compositions of the runoff from spring flood in each year are different. In some years, the early-stage bottom water and the early-stage accumulated snowfall are close to normal years, but the temperature in spring is low, the reservoir is opened late, and no large rainfall process exists after the reservoir is opened, so the spring run-off in the years is mainly used for melting ice and snow; in other years, although the conditions in the early stage are the same, the temperature in spring is early, the temperature is higher than that in the past year, the river is early, and then the rainfall process is more obvious, so that the runoff from spring flood is partially the ice-melting snow-melting runoff, and the other part is the rainfall runoff. Therefore, according to the incoming water from spring flood, by effective water source division, water source starting and ending dates and stream production stage duration division, a very valuable reference can be provided for the forecast of the incoming water from spring flood.
The northern snow melting has a plurality of influence factors, and the start date of the snow melting runoff is difficult to identify. The water source of the water coming from spring flood is diversified, the influence factors are numerous, and the action process of each factor is complex, so that the challenge is brought to the accurate forecast of the water coming from spring flood. In terms of the current research results, the factors having significant influence mainly include solar radiation, sunlight index, air temperature and wind speed, and the like. Among these factors, the action process is complex, the time lag effects generated by the action effect are different, and the factors are correlated with each other to present a complex coupling effect characteristic.
In conclusion, northern water sources are difficult to divide, snow melting and frozen soil influence factors are numerous, and action mechanisms are complex. Meanwhile, the snow melt and frozen soil runoff production has strong regional characteristics.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems in the prior art, the invention provides a northern reservoir spring runoff water source analysis method, which can reasonably determine the starting and ending dates and the duration of the runoff producing stage of northern reservoir spring runoff water sources and provide a basis for constructing a reliable and appropriate spring runoff forecasting model.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a northern reservoir spring runoff water source analysis method comprises the following steps:
step 2, dividing the daily scale runoff of the spring reservoir into surface runoff and subsurface runoff, regarding the surface runoff as snowmelt runoff, obtaining a base flow ratio by calculating the ratio of the subsurface runoff to the daily scale runoff, drawing a daily scale base flow ratio curve of the past year (every past years, the same below), and determining the starting and ending dates of water sources of various runoff in the past year by taking the significant valley points of the curve as critical time nodes, wherein the starting and ending dates are marked as D1;
and 3, taking the D1 as a sample, performing frequency calculation on the start and stop dates of the runoff water sources and the duration of the three stages of the previous year by adopting a box chart method, and describing the rules of the start and stop dates of the runoff water sources in spring of the reservoir based on the statistical characteristic values obtained from the box chart.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the method determines the runoff water source by analyzing the change rule of the day scale runoff curve of the reservoir in the spring of the previous year, divides the day scale runoff into surface runoff and subsurface runoff and calculates the base flow ratio, determines the starting and ending dates of the runoff water sources in the past year according to the base flow ratio curve, draws a box diagram of the starting and ending dates of the runoff water sources, and describes the rule of the starting and ending dates of the runoff water sources in the spring of the reservoir based on the statistical characteristic value obtained from the box diagram, thereby providing a basis for constructing a reliable and proper spring runoff forecasting model and directly predicting the starting and ending dates of the runoff water sources in the spring of the next year.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a curve of daily scale runoff of a reservoir in 2017 spring of a certain reservoir in North;
FIG. 2 is a curve of daily scale runoff and a curve of basal flow ratio of a reservoir in 2017 spring of a certain reservoir in North;
FIG. 3 is a spring day length groundwater burial depth curve of 2017 in a certain area in the north;
FIG. 4 is a box plot of snow melt runoff onset dates;
FIG. 5 is a box plot of snow melting rainfall runoff onset dates under frozen soil conditions;
FIG. 6 is a box plot of snow melt runoff yield end dates;
FIG. 7 is a box plot of frozen earth ablation date;
FIG. 8 is a box plot of snow melt runoff producing phase duration;
FIG. 9 is a box plot of snow melting, rainfall runoff producing phase under frozen soil conditions over time;
FIG. 10 is a box plot of the rainfall runoff producing phase at frozen soil conditions over time.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
The embodiment of the invention provides a northern reservoir spring runoff water source analysis method, which comprises the following steps:
s101, by analyzing the change rule of the day scale runoff curve of the reservoir in the spring of the past year, dividing the spring runoff process into a snow melting runoff producing stage, a snow melting rainfall producing stage under frozen soil conditions and a rainfall producing stage under frozen soil conditions, and accordingly determining runoff water sources including snow melting runoff, snow melting rainfall runoff and rainfall runoff;
s102, dividing the daily scale runoff of the spring reservoir into surface runoff and subsurface runoff, regarding the surface runoff as snowmelt runoff, obtaining a base runoff ratio by calculating the ratio of the subsurface runoff to the daily scale runoff, drawing a daily scale base runoff ratio curve of the past year, determining the starting and ending dates of water sources of various runoff in the past year by taking the significant valley points of the curve as critical time nodes, and marking as D1;
and S103, taking D1 as a sample, performing frequency calculation on the start and stop dates of the runoff water sources and the duration of the three stages of the previous year by adopting a box chart method, and describing the rule of the start and stop dates of the runoff water sources in spring of the reservoir based on the statistical characteristic values obtained from the box chart.
In this embodiment, step S101 is mainly used to determine the runoff water source according to the change rule of the daily scale runoff curve of the reservoir in spring of the past year. The daily scale runoff refers to the daily flux (m)3In s). For the reservoir, the daily scale runoff is calculated by the observed value of the water depth before sunset; for a typical hydrological station, the daily 8:00 flow or water level acquisition can be detected directly. The daily scale runoff data is drawn into a curve by taking the date as a horizontal axis and the daily flow as a vertical axis, and the daily scale runoff curve of the reservoir in 2017 spring is shown in fig. 1. The runoff curve of the past year is analyzed, and the runoff in the spring flood period (3 months to 5 months) has 3 stages (as shown in figure 1): the first stage is about 31 days and is characterized in that the expansion is slow and steep, and the snow melting and flow producing process is carried out; the second stage is about 20 days, and is characterized in that the rising and falling are gradual, and the process is a snow melting and rainfall runoff producing process under the condition of frozen soil; the third stage is about 18 days, which is characterized by rapid rising and slow falling, and is a rainfall runoff producing process under the condition of frozen soil. Accordingly, runoff water sources can be summarized as snow-melting runoff, snow-melting rainfall runoff and rainfall runoff.
In this embodiment, step S102 is mainly used to determine the start and end dates of each runoff water source in the past year according to the daily scale basal runoff ratio curve. Firstly, dividing daily scale runoff of a spring reservoir into surface runoff and underground runoff; and then, based on a snow-melting runoff production convergence theory, taking surface runoff as snow-melting runoff, and calculating the ratio of subsurface runoff to runoff before segmentation to obtain a base runoff ratio. The (1-base flow ratio) is equal to the ratio of the snow-melting runoff to the runoff before segmentation, namely the snow-melting water ratio, and can represent the proportion of surface runoff to total runoff presented by the snow-melting runoff. Therefore, the start and stop dates of the runoff water sources can be determined according to the base flow ratio (or snow melting water ratio) curve. The basic flow is divided based on an Eckhardt digital filtering method, and the principle of the basic flow is that the surface runoff and the subsurface runoff confluence characteristic in the daily scale runoff, namely the surface runoff (snow melting runoff or rainfall runoff under the condition of snow melting runoff or frozen soil) rises and falls steeply and can be regarded as high-frequency pulse; in contrast, subsurface runoff (impounded water or submerged replenishment from a watershed) fluctuates slowly and can be considered as a low frequency pulse. The Eckhardt digital filtering method can effectively filter high-frequency waves so as to achieve high-frequency and low-frequency separation and finish surface runoff and subsurface runoff segmentation. The surface runoff convergence time N is a key parameter of the Eckhardt digital filtering method, and the parameter N is optimized by adopting a sliding minimum method in the embodiment, so that the reasonability of a calculation result is ensured.
The daily base flow ratio curve is shown in fig. 2. The runoff curve before segmentation is also drawn in fig. 2, and the two curves are drawn in the same graph for comparison and more information can be obtained. Since the flow rate of each runoff water source tends to be lowest at the beginning or the end, a significant valley point of the curve can be used as a critical time node, and can be obtained according to fig. 2:
snow melt runoff start date: because the first snow melting surface runoff is dominant and the underground runoff accounts for the lowest, the first valley value is the start date of snow melting runoff production (day 17 and 3 months);
snow melting under frozen soil conditions rainfall runoff production start date: because frozen soil has cracks, snowmelt water seeps to cause weak emergence potential of snowmelt surface runoff and strong emergence potential of subsurface runoff, the first peak value is the snowmelt rainfall runoff production starting date (4 months and 17 days) under the condition of frozen soil;
snow melting stream ending date: the snow cover gradually disappears, so that the snow-melting runoff gradually disappears, and the subsurface runoff is excellent again, so that the second peak value is the snow-melting runoff production end date (5 months and 6 days);
the ablation date of frozen soil: the frozen soil is ablated, the precipitation can be directly supplied to the underground water, and the third peak value is the frozen soil ablation date (5 months and 25 days).
In the present embodiment, step S103 is mainly used to describe the rules of the runoff water source start and stop dates in spring of the reservoir based on the statistical characteristic values obtained from the box chart by drawing the box chart of each runoff start and stop date. A box plot, also known as a box plot or box plot, is a statistical graph used to show the distribution of a set of data, named for its shape like a box. Boxmaps have been applied in various fields to reflect the distribution characteristics of raw data. Six statistical characteristic values can be obtained by drawing the box chart, namely a minimum value, a lower quartile value, an average value, an upper quartile value, a maximum value and an abnormal value. Fig. 4 is a box diagram of the start date of the snowmelt runoff formation, fig. 5 is a box diagram of the start date of the snowmelt rainfall precipitation formation under frozen soil conditions, fig. 6 is a box diagram of the end date of the snowmelt runoff formation, and fig. 7 is a box diagram of the date of the frozen soil ablation. The statistical feature values of the four start/stop dates are shown in table 1 as the earliest start/stop date (minimum value), the earlier start/stop date (lower quartile value), the average start/stop date (average value), the later start/stop date (upper quartile value), the latest start/stop date (maximum value), and the abnormal start/stop date (abnormal value).
TABLE 1 statistical characteristic table of start and stop dates of various runoff water sources
As an alternative embodiment, the method further comprises:
determining the starting and ending dates of runoff water sources in each year according to the daily scale runoff curve of the reservoir in spring of the year, and recording the dates as D2;
calibrating D1 of the same year by using D2 of the previous year, wherein if the absolute value of the difference between D2 and D1 is smaller than a set threshold value, D1 is unchanged; otherwise, D1 was replaced by the average of D1 and D2.
In the embodiment, the starting and ending dates D2 of runoff water sources in each calendar year are determined according to the daily scale runoff curve of the spring reservoir. From fig. 1, it can be derived:
snow melt runoff start date: the runoff water source in the first flood peak process is pure snow melting runoff, the whole runoff process has the characteristic of gradual rising and steep falling, and the first rising point is the start date of snow melting runoff production (3 months and 15 days);
snow melting under frozen soil conditions rainfall runoff production start date: the runoff water source in the second flood peak process is snow melting water and rainfall, and is a snow melting rainfall runoff producing stage under the condition of frozen soil, the whole runoff process is characterized by steep rising and falling, the second rising point is the snow melting rainfall runoff producing starting date under the condition of frozen soil, and the second rising point is higher than the first rising point (4 months and 17 days);
snow melting stream ending date: the third flood peak is the rainfall runoff generating process under the condition of frozen soil, namely, the snowmelt runoff disappears at the stage, the runoff source is the rainfall runoff generating process in spring under the condition of frozen soil runoff generating, and the runoff process has the characteristics of steep rising, peak height and slow falling. The third rising point is the snow melting runoff finishing date (5 months and 6 days); .
The ablation date of frozen soil: the end date of the third flood peak is the end date (day 28 and 5 months) of the rainfall runoff producing stage under the frozen soil condition.
Then, calibrating D1 of the same year by using the obtained D2, wherein if the error between D2 and D1 is small, namely smaller than a set threshold value, D1 is unchanged; if the error of D2 and D1 is large, i.e., greater than the set threshold, D1 is replaced by the average of D1 and D2. The threshold is typically set empirically, such as optionally 5 days (colloquially referred to as one day). In the embodiment, the D1 is calibrated by using the D2, so that the precision of the start and stop date data of each runoff water source can be improved.
As an alternative embodiment, the method further comprises:
drawing a daily-scale underground water burial depth curve of the recent year, determining the starting and stopping date of each runoff water source according to the curve, and recording as D0;
d1 of the past years is verified by D0, and D1 of the year in which the absolute value of the difference between D0 and D1 exceeds a set threshold is rejected.
In the embodiment, a daily-scale groundwater burial depth curve of the recent year is drawn firstly, and the starting and ending date D0 of each runoff water source is determined according to the curve. This embodiment is through installing the ground water level gauge in ground water level monitoring well, and the buried depth data of automatic recording groundwater obtains the scale of a day groundwater buried depth curve. In spring, along with the rise of temperature, the accumulated snow melts, and the snow melting water permeates through frozen soil cracks and supplies to the diving water, so that the underground water level is lifted. Because the underground water burial depth is the visual reflection of the underground water level, the daily-scale underground water burial depth curve can visually reflect the snow melting process and the change rule of the snow melting water process. FIG. 3 is a spring-scale groundwater burial depth curve in 2017 of a certain area in the north. Three phases can be obtained according to fig. 3:
the first stage is the snow melting and flow producing stage (3 months, 17 days to 4 months, 16 days). The snow melting starts, because frozen soil cracks exist, the underground water level is raised (the underground water burial depth is reduced) due to the fact that snow melting water seeps downwards, the interval is used as a division basis, the front end (3 months and 17 days) is used for starting snow melting, and the rear end (4 months and 16 days) is used for starting runoff under the frozen soil condition;
the second stage is snow melting under frozen soil condition, rainfall runoff producing stage (4 months, 16 days to 5 months, 1 day). The accumulated snow is gradually ablated and the flow rate is reduced. Frozen earth itself produces little or little flow. At this time, rainfall is rare. Final thawing results in a drop in groundwater level (groundwater burial depth is raised);
the third stage (after 5 months and 1 day) is a rainfall runoff producing stage under the condition of frozen soil. The frozen soil disappears, the rainfall is gradually increased, the water supply to the underground water is gradually increased, and the underground water level is gradually raised (the buried depth of the underground water is reduced).
Then, D1 was verified with D0: comparing the error of D1 and D0 with the set threshold value, and if the error of D1 and D0 is smaller than the set threshold value, indicating that D1 is credible; otherwise, D1 is not trusted and D1 of the year is rejected.
As an alternative embodiment, the method further comprises: and calculating the duration of the snow melting runoff generating stage, the duration of the snow melting rainfall generating stage under the frozen soil condition and the duration of the rainfall generating stage under the frozen soil condition over the years according to D1, and drawing a box chart of the durations of the three stages.
This embodiment adds statistical processing to the duration of the three stages of labour throughout the year. The four start and stop dates and the three stages of labor flow are in turn: the snow melting runoff starting date, the snow melting runoff stage, the snow melting rainfall runoff starting date under the frozen soil condition, the snow melting rainfall runoff stage under the frozen soil condition, the snow melting runoff finishing date, the rain melting runoff stage under the frozen soil condition and the frozen soil ablation date. From which the duration of the three stages of labour can be calculated.
The box plots for the three stages of labor are shown in FIGS. 8-10. Table 2 gives six statistical characteristic values for the three labour phase durations, respectively, minimum duration (minimum), shorter duration (lower quartile), average duration (average), longer duration (upper quartile), maximum duration (maximum) and abnormal duration (abnormal value).
TABLE 2 statistical characteristic values (unit: day) of the duration of the three stages of labor
The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating a few embodiments of the present invention, and should not be taken as limiting the scope of the present invention, in which all equivalent changes, modifications, or equivalent scaling-up or down, etc. made in accordance with the spirit of the present invention should be considered as falling within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (2)
1. The northern reservoir spring runoff water source analysis method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1, by analyzing the change rule of the day scale runoff curve of the reservoir in the spring of the past year, dividing the spring runoff process into a snow melting runoff producing stage, a snow melting rainfall producing stage under frozen soil conditions and a rainfall producing stage under frozen soil conditions, and determining that the runoff water source comprises snow melting runoff, snow melting rainfall runoff and rainfall runoff;
step 2, dividing the daily scale runoff of the spring reservoir into surface runoff and subsurface runoff, regarding the surface runoff as snowmelt runoff, obtaining a base runoff ratio by calculating the ratio of the subsurface runoff to the daily scale runoff, drawing a daily scale base runoff ratio curve of the past year, and determining the starting and ending date D1 of each runoff water source of the past year by taking the obvious valley point of the curve as a critical time node, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps: the method specifically comprises the following steps:
snow melt runoff start date: because the first snow melting surface runoff is dominant and the underground runoff accounts for the lowest, the first valley value is the start date of the snow melting runoff production;
snow melting under frozen soil conditions rainfall runoff production start date: because frozen soil has cracks, snowmelt water seeps downwards to cause weak emergence potential of snowmelt surface runoff and strong emergence potential of subsurface runoff, and therefore, the first peak value is the snowmelt rainfall runoff production starting date under the condition of frozen soil;
snow melting stream ending date: the snow cover gradually disappears, so that the snow-melting runoff gradually disappears, and the subsurface runoff is excellent again, so that the second peak value is the snow-melting runoff production ending date;
date of end of rainfall runoff production under frozen soil conditions: the frozen soil is ablated, the rainfall can be directly supplied to the underground water, and the third peak value is the frozen soil ablation date;
step 3, determining the starting and ending dates of the runoff water sources in the past year according to the daily scale runoff curve of the reservoir in the spring of the past year, and recording the dates as D2;
calibrating D1 of the same year by using D2 of the previous year, wherein if the absolute value of the difference between D2 and D1 is smaller than a set threshold value, D1 is unchanged; otherwise, D1 is replaced by the average of D1 and D2;
step 4, drawing a daily-scale underground water burial depth curve of the recent year, determining the starting and ending dates of each runoff water source according to the curve, and recording the dates as D0;
d1 of the past years is verified by adopting D0, and D1 of the years with the absolute value of the difference between D0 and D1 exceeding a set threshold value is rejected;
and 5, taking the D1 as a sample, performing frequency calculation on the start and stop dates of the runoff water sources and the duration of the three stages of the previous year by adopting a box chart method, and describing the rules of the start and stop dates of the runoff water sources in spring of the reservoir based on the statistical characteristic values obtained from the box chart.
2. The northern reservoir spring runoff water source analysis method of claim 1 further comprising:
and calculating the duration of the snow melting runoff generating stage, the duration of the snow melting rainfall generating stage under the frozen soil condition and the duration of the rainfall generating stage under the frozen soil condition over the years according to D1, and drawing a box chart of the durations of the three stages.
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