CN114596689B - Shallow landslide type gully debris flow early warning method - Google Patents
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Abstract
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及到泥石流防治工程技术领域，尤其涉及一种浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流预警方法。The invention relates to the technical field of mud-rock flow prevention and control engineering, in particular to an early warning method for shallow landslide-type valley mud-rock flow.
背景技术Background technique
浅表层土质滑坡是滑坡中分布最为广泛、暴发频率高、危害性较大的地质灾害之一。浅表层土质滑坡是指发生在松散未固结的粘性土或砂性土斜坡上的一类滑坡，坡体结构松散具有较大空隙比、透水性强及下层的岩石分层比较明显的特点。其物质组成一般为基岩风化产物，堆积厚度通常小于5米。此类斜坡由于滑体松散，易受大气降水和库水位周期性影响，稳定性较差。这类滑坡在下滑过程中若遇充足的水源和足够的滑动面，极有可能转化为泥石流。Shallow surface soil landslide is one of the most widely distributed landslides, high frequency of outbreaks, and one of the most harmful geological disasters. Shallow surface soil landslide refers to a type of landslide that occurs on loose unconsolidated cohesive soil or sandy soil slope. The slope structure is loose and has a large void ratio, strong water permeability and obvious stratification of the underlying rock. Its material composition is generally the weathering product of bedrock, and the accumulation thickness is usually less than 5 meters. Due to the loose sliding body, this kind of slope is easily affected by atmospheric precipitation and reservoir water level periodically, and its stability is poor. If this type of landslide encounters sufficient water source and sufficient sliding surface during the sliding process, it is very likely to be transformed into a debris flow.
目前国内外对泥石流的预测预报主要是建立在多年的观测积累基础上，给出经验的临界降雨值，如云南蒋家沟的泥石流预测预报就是建立在30年的长期观测基础上。具体对于浅表层土质滑坡型沟谷泥石流而言，泥石流起动的临界降雨量主要是基于历史观测资料的统计、归纳和总结的方法获得。但对于低频率泥石流，往往没有任何的观测资料积累，因此也就无法在获得观测数据的基础上，得出临界降雨值的经验方法，进而预测泥石流的发生。防止这类低频率泥石流灾害需要深入地了解泥石流的发生规律，并预测泥石流的发生。At present, the prediction of debris flow at home and abroad is mainly based on years of observation accumulation, and the critical rainfall value of experience is given. For example, the prediction of debris flow in Jiangjiagou, Yunnan is based on 30 years of long-term observation. Specifically, for shallow surface soil landslide-type valley debris flow, the critical rainfall for debris flow initiation is mainly obtained based on the statistics, induction and summary of historical observation data. However, for low-frequency debris flows, there is often no accumulation of observation data, so it is impossible to obtain empirical methods for critical rainfall values based on the observation data, and then predict the occurrence of debris flows. Preventing such low-frequency debris flow disasters requires an in-depth understanding of the occurrence of debris flows and prediction of the occurrence of debris flows.
水是泥石流形成的重要条件，降雨型泥石流中水源条件的主要因子为雨强、雨量、降雨频率及温度。对于浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流，降雨的作用有两个方面：一是降雨入渗引起浅层滑坡，并运动到沟道中，形成泥石流物源；二是降雨产流形成径流，汇集成为山洪，再起动沟道固体物质形成泥石流。在较大降雨情况下，雨强大于土壤渗透能力形成超渗产流。超渗产流在山坡坡面汇流后，在沟道内汇集形成山洪，洪水冲刷刮铲沟道内物源最后形成泥石流。因此降雨是激发泥石流的关键参数。当降水强度大于土壤渗透能力时，才能形成超渗产流，而土壤渗透系数与土壤含水量关系密切，前期含水率越大，土壤渗透能力越弱，越易形成超渗产流。Water is an important condition for the formation of debris flows. The main factors of water source conditions in rainfall-type debris flows are rainfall intensity, rainfall amount, rainfall frequency and temperature. For shallow landslide-type gully debris flow, the effect of rainfall has two aspects: first, rainfall infiltration causes shallow landslide, and moves into the channel, forming debris flow source; The solid matter in the starting channel forms a debris flow. In the case of heavy rainfall, the rainfall is stronger than the infiltration capacity of the soil, resulting in super seepage runoff. After the super-seepage runoff converges on the hillside, it gathers in the gully to form a torrent, and the flood scours the sources in the scraper trench to form a debris flow. Therefore, rainfall is a key parameter for triggering debris flows. When the precipitation intensity is greater than the soil infiltration capacity, super-seepage runoff can be formed, and the soil permeability coefficient is closely related to soil water content. The higher the early water content, the weaker the soil infiltration capacity, and the easier it is to form super-seepage runoff.
目前的泥石流预警模型中，降雨因素主要考虑的是：In the current debris flow early warning model, the main considerations of rainfall factors are:
1、前期有效降雨量及激发降雨量；1. Early effective rainfall and induced rainfall;
2、平均降雨强度及降雨历时；2. Average rainfall intensity and rainfall duration;
3、总降雨量。3. Total rainfall.
浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流的激发与最后形成的山洪有关，因此与强降雨有关，平均降雨强度及降雨历时，或总降雨量，都不适用于这类沟谷泥石流的预警。前期有效降雨量及激发降雨量可以很好地概括降雨条件，其中激发降雨量是泥石流预警的关键，代表最后的较大降雨强度，也比较容易理解与获得。但是前期有效降雨量比较模糊，也有多种计算方法。一种方法是日降雨衰减法：前1日降雨量衰减按照降雨量乘以衰减系数确定，前2日降雨量衰减按照降雨量乘以衰减系数的2次方确定。依次类推，前20日降雨量都可以用此方法获得作为前期降雨量。衰减系数取值在0.8-0.9，根据研究区域特征确定。该方法总体比较可靠，也比较简单实用，但在实际应用中，可能出现夸大前期降雨量的可能，如：前3-5日有较大降雨，随后降雨停了2天，再发生较大降雨时，计算的前期降雨量数值较大，但实际降雨已经停了2天，之前的前期的降雨基本没有影响，这就会造成夸大前期降雨量，引起误报。The triggering of shallow landslide-type valley debris flows is related to the final flash floods, and therefore is related to heavy rainfall. The average rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, or total rainfall are not suitable for early warning of this type of valley debris flow. The effective rainfall in the early stage and the induced rainfall can well summarize the rainfall conditions. Among them, the induced rainfall is the key to the early warning of debris flow, which represents the final maximum rainfall intensity, and is relatively easy to understand and obtain. However, the effective rainfall in the early stage is relatively vague, and there are many calculation methods. One method is the daily rainfall attenuation method: the rainfall attenuation in the first day is determined by multiplying the rainfall by the attenuation coefficient, and the rainfall attenuation in the first two days is determined by multiplying the rainfall by the attenuation coefficient to the second power. By analogy, the rainfall in the previous 20 days can be obtained by this method as the previous rainfall. The value of the attenuation coefficient is 0.8-0.9, which is determined according to the characteristics of the research area. This method is generally reliable, simple and practical, but in practical applications, the possibility of exaggerating the previous rainfall may occur, such as: there was heavy rainfall in the first 3-5 days, and then the rain stopped for 2 days, and then heavy rainfall occurred In this case, the calculated rainfall in the previous period is relatively large, but the actual rainfall has stopped for 2 days, and the rainfall in the previous period has basically no effect, which will cause the exaggerated rainfall in the previous period and cause false alarms.
公开号为CN106157541A，公开日为2016年11月23日的中国专利文献公开了一种沟谷泥石流预警方法，其特征在于，包括以下步骤：测量矿物的次生黏土矿物的比表面积值ai，矿物成分在原生矿物的含量bi，计算岩性次生黏土矿物的总比表面积值n，黏土指标N，测量岩石坚固系数F，计算渗透指标K，地质因子G，测量流域面积A0，计算全流域面积A，测量全流域面积百分比S和沟床纵比降J，计算地形因子T，确定沟道年平均降雨量R0和1小时降雨变差系数Cv，测量前期降雨量B，1小时激发降雨量I，计算泥石流水文因子R，计算临界值Cr并划分预警级别。The publication number is CN106157541A, and the Chinese patent literature published on November 23, 2016 discloses a kind of gully debris flow early warning method, which is characterized in that it comprises the following steps: measuring the specific surface area value ai of secondary clay minerals of minerals, In the content bi of primary minerals, calculate the total specific surface area value n of lithological secondary clay minerals, clay index N, measure the rock firmness coefficient F, calculate the permeability index K, geological factor G, measure the watershed area A0, and calculate the total watershed area A , measure the area percentage S of the whole watershed and the vertical gradient J of the gully bed, calculate the terrain factor T, determine the annual average rainfall R0 and the 1-hour rainfall variation coefficient Cv of the gully, measure the previous rainfall B, and the 1-hour stimulated rainfall I, Calculate the debris flow hydrological factor R, calculate the critical value Cr and divide the early warning level.
该专利文献公开的沟谷泥石流预警方法，需要有前期降雨量作为降雨因子的一部分，而前期降雨的定义往往不容易准确表述降雨在浅层滑坡和后期山洪形成及最后发生泥石流中的作用，致使泥石流预警的准确性降低，防灾适用性欠佳。The valley debris flow early warning method disclosed in this patent document needs the previous rainfall as a part of the rainfall factor, and the definition of the early rainfall is often not easy to accurately express the role of rainfall in the formation of shallow landslides and later mountain torrents and the final debris flow, resulting in debris flow The accuracy of early warning is reduced, and the applicability of disaster prevention is not good.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明为了克服上述现有技术的缺陷，提供一种浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流预警方法，本发明同时考虑了引发泥石流的地形和水文两大因素的作用及其相互影响，在判断临界值时引入了地质因素，因此测算结果更符合泥石流形成机理，提高了泥石流预警准确度；而且不需要泥石流发生的大量历史观测数据，只需要确定泥石流流域的地形因子，地质特征与降雨观测数据即可，预警效率更高，具有更高的防灾适用性。In order to overcome the defects of the above-mentioned prior art, the present invention provides a shallow landslide-type valley debris flow early warning method. The present invention simultaneously considers the effects and mutual influences of the two major factors of topography and hydrology that cause debris flow, and introduces Geological factors are considered, so the calculation results are more in line with the formation mechanism of debris flows, which improves the accuracy of debris flow early warning; and does not require a large amount of historical observation data of debris flows, only needs to determine the topographic factors, geological characteristics and rainfall observation data of the debris flow basin, and early warning Higher efficiency and higher applicability for disaster prevention.
本发明通过下述技术方案实现：The present invention realizes through following technical scheme:
一种浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流预警方法，其特征在于，包括以下步骤：A shallow landslide type valley debris flow early warning method is characterized in that it comprises the following steps:
a、通过高精度地形图测量不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积A；a. Measure the area A of the entire watershed without debris flow in accumulation areas through high-precision topographic maps;
b、通过高精度地形图测量敏感坡度面积占不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积百分比S0和沟床纵比降J，根据式1确定泥石流地形因子T；b. Measure the percentage of the sensitive slope area in the total area of the debris flow excluding the accumulation area S 0 and the vertical slope J of the gully bed through the high-precision topographic map, and determine the topographic factor T of the debris flow according to formula 1;
T＝S0J0.3(A/A0)0.2 式1T＝S 0 J 0.3 (A/A 0 ) 0.2 Formula 1
其中，T为泥石流地形因子；S0为敏感坡度面积占不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积百分比；J为沟床纵比降；A为不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积，km2；A0为单位面积，1km2；Among them, T is the terrain factor of debris flow; S 0 is the percentage of sensitive slope area in the total area of debris flow without accumulation area; J is the vertical gradient of gully bed; A is the total area of debris flow without accumulation area, km 2 ; A 0 is Unit area, 1km 2 ;
c、查阅水文手册确定监测区域的泥石流沟道年平均降雨量R0和泥石流沟道1小时降雨变差系数Cv，现场实地测量1小时激发降雨量It，确定土壤的母岩岩石类型，计算土壤含水率因子K，根据式2确定泥石流降雨因子R；c. Consult the hydrological manual to determine the annual average rainfall R 0 of the debris flow channel in the monitoring area and the 1-hour rainfall variation coefficient C v of the debris flow channel, measure the 1-hour induced rainfall It on the spot, determine the parent rock type of the soil, and calculate Soil moisture content factor K, determine debris flow rainfall factor R according to formula 2;
其中，R为泥石流降雨因子；R*为激发降雨指标，mm；R0为泥石流沟道年平均降雨量，mm；Cv为泥石流沟道1小时降雨变差系数；K为土壤含水率因子，mm；It为1小时激发降雨量，mm；Among them, R is the debris flow rainfall factor; R* is the triggering rainfall index, mm; R 0 is the annual average rainfall of the debris flow channel, mm; C v is the 1-hour rainfall variation coefficient of the debris flow channel; K is the soil moisture content factor, mm; It is the induced rainfall in 1 hour, mm;
d、根据式3计算泥石流的发生指标P；d. Calculate the occurrence index P of debris flow according to formula 3;
P＝RT0.45 式3P = RT 0.45 Equation 3
其中，P为泥石流的发生指标；R为泥石流降雨因子；T为泥石流地形因子；Among them, P is the occurrence index of debris flow; R is the rainfall factor of debris flow; T is the terrain factor of debris flow;
e、根据土壤的母岩岩石类型判断泥石流的发生：e. Judging the occurrence of debris flow according to the type of parent rock of the soil:
当P＜Cr1时，泥石流发生的可能性小；When P<Cr1, the possibility of debris flow is small;
当Cr2＞P≥Cr1时，泥石流发生的可能性中等；When Cr2>P≥Cr1, the possibility of debris flow is moderate;
当Cr3＞P≥Cr2时，泥石流发生的可能性大；When Cr3>P≥Cr2, the possibility of debris flow is high;
当P≥Cr3时，泥石流发生的可能性很大；When P≥Cr3, the possibility of debris flow is very high;
土壤的母岩岩石类型为花岗岩时，Cr1的取值为0.39；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩时，Cr1的取值为0.40；土壤的母岩岩石类型为正长岩时，Cr1的取值为0.40；土壤的母岩岩石类型为辉长岩时，Cr1的取值为0.40；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩时，Cr1的取值为0.48；土壤的母岩岩石类型为灰岩时，Cr1的取值为0.27；When the parent rock type of the soil is granite, the value of Cr1 is 0.39; when the parent rock type of the soil is sandstone interbedded with shale, the value of Cr1 is 0.40; when the parent rock type of the soil is syenite, the value of Cr1 The value of Cr1 is 0.40; when the parent rock type of soil is gabbro, the value of Cr1 is 0.40; when the parent rock type of soil is sandstone, the value of Cr1 is 0.48; the parent rock type of soil is lime For rock, the value of Cr1 is 0.27;
土壤的母岩岩石类型为花岗岩时，Cr2的取值为0.46；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩时，Cr2的取值为0.48；土壤的母岩岩石类型为正长岩时，Cr2的取值为0.47；土壤的母岩岩石类型为辉长岩时，Cr2的取值为0.47；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩时，Cr2的取值为0.56；土壤的母岩岩石类型为灰岩时，Cr2的取值为0.31；When the parent rock type of the soil is granite, the value of Cr2 is 0.46; when the parent rock type of the soil is sandstone interbedded with shale, the value of Cr2 is 0.48; when the parent rock type of the soil is syenite, the value of Cr2 The value of Cr2 is 0.47; when the parent rock type of soil is gabbro, the value of Cr2 is 0.47; when the parent rock type of soil is sandstone, the value of Cr2 is 0.56; the parent rock type of soil is lime When rock, the value of Cr2 is 0.31;
土壤的母岩岩石类型为花岗岩时，Cr3的取值为0.53；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩时，Cr3的取值为0.55；土壤的母岩岩石类型为正长岩时，Cr3的取值为0.54；土壤的母岩岩石类型为辉长岩时，Cr3的取值为0.54；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩时，Cr3的取值为0.65；土壤的母岩岩石类型为灰岩时，Cr3的取值为0.37。When the parent rock type of the soil is granite, the value of Cr3 is 0.53; when the parent rock type of the soil is sandstone interbedded with shale, the value of Cr3 is 0.55; The value of Cr3 is 0.54; when the parent rock type of soil is gabbro, the value of Cr3 is 0.54; when the parent rock type of soil is sandstone, the value of Cr3 is 0.65; the parent rock type of soil is lime For rock, the value of Cr3 is 0.37.
所述步骤b中，敏感坡度是指坡度为25-45°。In the step b, the sensitive slope refers to a slope of 25-45°.
所述步骤c中，土壤含水率因子K通过计算获取，当土壤为湿润区时，根据式4计算；当土壤为过渡区时，根据式5计算；当土壤为干旱区时，根据式6计算；In the step c, the soil moisture factor K is obtained by calculation. When the soil is in a humid area, it is calculated according to formula 4; when the soil is in a transitional area, it is calculated according to formula 5; when the soil is in an arid area, it is calculated according to formula 6 ;
K＝3×10-8×e54.7Sm 式4K＝3×10- 8 ×e 54.7S m Formula 4
K＝1×10-8×e56.7Sm 式5K＝1×10- 8 ×e 56.7S m Formula 5
K＝8×10-18×e163Sm 式6K＝8×10- 18 ×e 163S m Formula 6
其中，Sm为土壤含水率，当土壤为湿润区时，土壤含水率Sm由式7计算；当土壤为过渡区时，土壤含水率Sm由式8计算；当土壤为干旱区时，土壤含水率Sm由式9计算；e为基数，e＝2.71828；Among them, Sm is the soil moisture content. When the soil is in the humid area, the soil moisture content Sm is calculated by formula 7; when the soil is in the transition zone, the soil moisture content Sm is calculated by formula 8; when the soil is in the dry area, the soil moisture content Sm is calculated by formula 9; e is the base, e=2.71828;
Sm＝α(0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452) 式7Sm=α(0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452) Formula 7
Sm＝0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452 式8Sm＝0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452 Formula 8
Sm＝β(0.0058ln(Mi)+0.2475) 式9Sm=β(0.0058ln(Mi)+0.2475) Formula 9
其中，Sm为土壤含水率，α为湿润区修正系数，当日降雨＞1mm时取1，当日降雨≤1mm时取1.15；β为干旱区系数，当日降雨＞1mm时取1，当日降雨≤1mm时取0.8；Mi为湿润指数，由式10计算；Among them, Sm is the soil moisture content, α is the correction coefficient of the wet area, 1 is taken when the daily rainfall is > 1 mm, and 1.15 is taken when the daily rainfall is ≤ 1 mm; Take 0.8; Mi is the humidity index, calculated by formula 10;
Mi＝B/pe 式10Mi=B/pe Formula 10
其中，Mi为湿润指数；B为日降水量，mm/d；pe为最大潜热蒸发，mm/d，由式11-式14计算；Among them, Mi is the humidity index; B is the daily precipitation, mm/d; pe is the maximum latent heat evaporation, mm/d, calculated by formula 11-14;
a＝0.492+1.792×10-2I-7.71×10-3I2+6.75×10-7I3 式12a＝0.492+1.792×10 -2 I-7.71×10 -3 I 2 +6.75×10 -7 I 3 Formula 12
其中，pe为最大潜热蒸发，mm/d；Ta为日平均温度，℃；h为年日光平均长度，I为逐月总加热指数；a为指数；Tm为月平均温度，℃；i为系数。Among them, pe is the maximum latent heat evaporation, mm/d; Ta is the average daily temperature, ℃; h is the average length of sunlight per year, I is the total monthly heating index; a is the index; Tm is the monthly average temperature, ℃; i is the coefficient .
所述土壤为湿润区是指R0≥1.38S-1068；土壤为过渡区是指1.38S-1068＞R0≥1.38S-1965；土壤为干旱区是指R0＜1.38S-1965；其中，R0为泥石流沟道年平均降雨量，mm；S为多年平均日照时数，h。The soil is in a humid area means R 0 ≥ 1.38S-1068; the soil in a transitional area means 1.38S-1068 > R 0 ≥ 1.38S-1965; the soil in an arid area means R 0 <1.38S-1965; wherein , R 0 is the annual average rainfall of the debris flow channel, mm; S is the annual average sunshine hours, h.
本发明所述泥石流地形因子T是指有利于浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流形成的多个有关地形条件的因素的总和。The terrain factor T of debris flow in the present invention refers to the sum of multiple factors related to terrain conditions that are beneficial to the formation of shallow landslide-type valley debris flow.
本发明所述泥石流降雨因子R是指有利于浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流形成的多个有关水文条件的因素的总和。The debris flow rainfall factor R in the present invention refers to the sum of multiple factors related to hydrological conditions that are beneficial to the formation of shallow landslide-type valley debris flows.
本发明的原理如下：Principle of the present invention is as follows:
泥石流的形成由泥石流的地形条件、地质条件和降水条件决定，三个条件缺一不可，共同作用下形成泥石流。本发明充分考虑了这三个条件的综合作用，并将地形条件和降水条件两个条件的作用统一起来形成判断模型，结合地质条件决定的临界值，实现了三大条件的有机结合。经大量的野外调查研究，分析确定对于既定泥石流沟道而言，在确定泥石流范围基础上，预警监测区域泥石流起动临界值Cr 1、Cr2及Cr3与泥石流地形因子T和泥石流降雨因子R两者间的函数关系。The formation of debris flow is determined by the topographical conditions, geological conditions and precipitation conditions of the debris flow. The three conditions are indispensable, and the debris flow is formed under the combined action. The present invention fully considers the comprehensive effects of these three conditions, and unifies the effects of topographical conditions and precipitation conditions to form a judgment model, and combines the critical values determined by geological conditions to realize the organic combination of the three conditions. After a large number of field investigations and studies, it is determined that for a given debris flow channel, on the basis of determining the scope of debris flow, the relationship between the critical value of debris flow start-up Cr 1, Cr2 and Cr3 in the early warning and monitoring area, the topographic factor T of debris flow and the rainfall factor R of debris flow functional relationship.
通过泥石流起动临界值Cr1、Cr2及Cr3的阈值判断泥石流发生可能性的技术原理在于：通过野外调查大规模的群发泥石流事件，由暴发和没有暴发的泥石流流域的地形和降雨条件以及计算的判断值，确定当P＜Cr1，几乎没有泥石流发生；Cr 1≤P＜Cr2，有少量泥石流发生；Cr2≤P＜Cr3，有较多泥石流发生；P≥Cr3，很多泥石流暴发。The technical principle of judging the possibility of debris flow through the thresholds of debris flow initiation thresholds Cr1, Cr2 and Cr3 is: through field surveys of large-scale mass debris flow events, the terrain and rainfall conditions of the debris flow basins with and without outbreaks and the calculated judgment values , it is determined that when P<Cr1, almost no debris flow occurs; Cr 1≤P<Cr2, a small amount of debris flow occurs; Cr2≤P<Cr3, more debris flow occurs; P≥Cr3, many debris flow outbreaks.
本发明的有益效果主要表现在以下方面：The beneficial effects of the present invention are mainly manifested in the following aspects:
一、本发明，“a、通过高精度地形图测量不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积A；b、通过高精度地形图测量敏感坡度面积占不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积百分比S0和沟床纵比降J，根据式1确定泥石流地形因子T；c、查阅水文手册确定监测区域的泥石流沟道年平均降雨量R0和泥石流沟道1小时降雨变差系数Cv，现场实地测量1小时激发降雨量It，确定土壤的母岩岩石类型，计算土壤含水率因子K，根据式2确定泥石流降雨因子R；d、根据式3计算泥石流的发生指标P；e、根据土壤的母岩岩石类型判断泥石流的发生”，作为一个完整的技术方案，较现有技术而言，同时考虑了引发泥石流的地形和水文两大因素的作用及其相互影响，在判断临界值时引入了地质因素，因此测算结果更符合泥石流形成机理，提高了泥石流预警准确度；而且不需要泥石流发生的大量历史观测数据，只需要确定泥石流流域的地形因子，地质特征与降雨观测数据即可，预警效率更高，具有更高的防灾适用性。One, the present invention, "a, measure by high-precision topographic map and do not contain accumulation area debris flow full basin area A; Vertical slope J, determine debris flow terrain factor T according to formula 1; c, consult the hydrological manual to determine the annual average rainfall R 0 and 1-hour rainfall variation coefficient C v of debris flow channels in the monitoring area, and measure on-site for 1 hour Stimulate the rainfall It, determine the parent rock type of the soil, calculate the soil moisture factor K, and determine the debris flow rainfall factor R according to formula 2; d, calculate the occurrence index P of debris flow according to formula 3; e, according to the parent rock type of the soil Judging the occurrence of debris flow", as a complete technical solution, compared with the existing technology, it also considers the role of the topography and hydrology factors that cause debris flow and their mutual influence, and introduces geological factors when judging the critical value, so The calculation results are more in line with the formation mechanism of debris flow, which improves the accuracy of debris flow early warning; and does not require a large amount of historical observation data of debris flow, only needs to determine the topographic factors, geological characteristics and rainfall observation data of the debris flow basin, and the early warning efficiency is higher. Higher disaster prevention applicability.
二、本发明，对于泥石流起动的临界降雨量与地质相关阈值的测算同时考虑了引发泥石流的地形及水文两大因素的作用，对于既定泥石流沟道而言，测算泥石流起动的降雨量阈值不需要泥石流发生的大量历史观测数据，由于除科研设置的泥石流观测站以外，绝大部分泥石流沟道均无泥石流发生的长期观测数据，因此对于既定泥石流沟道的泥石流预报具有更高的防灾适用性。Two, the present invention considers the effect of the landform and hydrology two major factors that cause debris flow simultaneously for the measurement and calculation of the critical rainfall and geological correlation threshold value that debris flow starts, for the established debris flow channel, the rainfall threshold value of measurement and calculation debris flow starting does not need A large amount of historical observation data of debris flow, except for the debris flow observation stations set up by scientific research, most of the debris flow channels have no long-term observation data of debris flow, so the debris flow forecast for the established debris flow channel has higher disaster prevention applicability .
三、本发明，能够用于无资料地区的低频率浅表层土质滑坡型沟谷泥石流的预警，利于提高防灾效果。3. The present invention can be used for early warning of low-frequency shallow surface soil landslide-type valley debris flow in areas without data, which is beneficial to improve disaster prevention effect.
四、本发明，用直接的土壤含水率代替间接的前期降雨影响，提出了定量的浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流发生的可能性计算方法和指标，极大的提高了预警准确性。Four, the present invention replaces the indirect previous rainfall influence with direct soil moisture content, proposes the possibility calculation method and index of quantitative shallow landslide type gully debris flow generation, has greatly improved the early warning accuracy.
五、本发明，因土壤湿润区、干旱区及过渡区的降雨与蒸发有很大区别，对土壤含水率有很大影响，通过将这三个区域分开计算，使得计算的土壤含水率更加准确，进而能够保障预警准确性。5. In the present invention, because the rainfall and evaporation in the wet soil area, the dry area and the transition area are very different, it has a great influence on the soil moisture content. By calculating these three areas separately, the calculated soil moisture content is more accurate. , so as to ensure the accuracy of early warning.
六、本发明，以日降雨量为基础，充分考虑日照时间、日温、月平均温度及加热指数影响土壤含水率的各参数，能够确保计算的土壤含水率更加准确。Sixth, the present invention, based on the daily rainfall, fully considers the parameters of the sunshine time, daily temperature, monthly average temperature and heating index that affect the soil moisture content, and can ensure that the calculated soil moisture content is more accurate.
七、本发明，以24h降雨和温度为计算依据计算土壤含水率，但是优于一般意义上的24h降雨和温度：一般意义上的24h降雨和温度，指特定时间段，如第一天8时到第二天8时；或第一天20时到第二天20时的降雨与温度；而本发明的24h降雨和温度，则是预警前24h的降雨与温度，即随每小时的时间推进，逐渐在更新变化的，每一小时都在更新降雨与温度，其优点在于每小时更新了降雨与温度数据，使得预警时的数据更准确；避免了特定时间段的降雨与温度数据不能反映预警时刻的实际情况，或在特定时间，如第二日的8时或20时进行预警造成预警滞后的情况。Seven, the present invention calculates the soil moisture content based on the 24h rainfall and temperature, but it is better than the 24h rainfall and temperature in the general sense: the 24h rainfall and temperature in the general sense refer to a specific time period, such as at 8:00 on the first day To 8:00 the next day; or the rainfall and temperature from 20:00 on the first day to 20:00 the next day; and the 24h rainfall and temperature of the present invention are the rainfall and temperature of the 24h before the early warning, that is, advance with the hourly time , is gradually updating and changing, and the rainfall and temperature are updated every hour. The advantage is that the rainfall and temperature data are updated every hour, making the data in the early warning more accurate; avoiding that the rainfall and temperature data in a specific period of time cannot reflect the early warning. The actual situation at the time, or at a specific time, such as 8:00 or 20:00 on the second day, the early warning caused the delay of the early warning.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
实施例1Example 1
一种浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流预警方法，包括以下步骤：A shallow landslide type valley debris flow early warning method, comprising the following steps:
a、通过高精度地形图测量不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积A；a. Measure the area A of the entire watershed without debris flow in accumulation areas through high-precision topographic maps;
b、通过高精度地形图测量敏感坡度面积占不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积百分比S0和沟床纵比降J，根据式1确定泥石流地形因子T；b. Measure the percentage of the sensitive slope area in the total area of the debris flow excluding the accumulation area S 0 and the vertical slope J of the gully bed through the high-precision topographic map, and determine the topographic factor T of the debris flow according to formula 1;
T＝S0J0.3(A/A0)0.2 式1T＝S 0 J 0.3 (A/A 0 ) 0.2 Formula 1
其中，T为泥石流地形因子；S0为敏感坡度面积占不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积百分比；J为沟床纵比降；A为不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积，km2；A0为单位面积，1km2；Among them, T is the terrain factor of debris flow; S 0 is the percentage of sensitive slope area in the total area of debris flow without accumulation area; J is the vertical gradient of gully bed; A is the total area of debris flow without accumulation area, km 2 ; A 0 is Unit area, 1km 2 ;
c、查阅水文手册确定监测区域的泥石流沟道年平均降雨量R0和泥石流沟道1小时降雨变差系数Cv，现场实地测量1小时激发降雨量I t，确定土壤的母岩岩石类型，计算土壤含水率因子K，根据式2确定泥石流降雨因子R；c. Consult the hydrological manual to determine the annual average rainfall R 0 of the debris flow channel in the monitoring area and the 1-hour rainfall variation coefficient C v of the debris flow channel, and measure the 1-hour induced rainfall I t on the spot to determine the parent rock type of the soil. Calculate soil moisture factor K, and determine debris flow rainfall factor R according to formula 2;
其中，R为泥石流降雨因子；R*为激发降雨指标，mm；R0为泥石流沟道年平均降雨量，mm；Cv为泥石流沟道1小时降雨变差系数；K为土壤含水率因子，mm；It为1小时激发降雨量，mm；Among them, R is the debris flow rainfall factor; R* is the triggering rainfall index, mm; R 0 is the annual average rainfall of the debris flow channel, mm; C v is the 1-hour rainfall variation coefficient of the debris flow channel; K is the soil moisture content factor, mm; It is the induced rainfall in 1 hour, mm;
d、根据式3计算泥石流的发生指标P；d. Calculate the occurrence index P of debris flow according to formula 3;
P＝RT0.45 式3P = RT 0.45 Equation 3
其中，P为泥石流的发生指标；R为泥石流降雨因子；T为泥石流地形因子；Among them, P is the occurrence index of debris flow; R is the rainfall factor of debris flow; T is the terrain factor of debris flow;
e、根据土壤的母岩岩石类型判断泥石流的发生：e. Judging the occurrence of debris flow according to the type of parent rock of the soil:
当P＜Cr1时，泥石流发生的可能性小；When P<Cr1, the possibility of debris flow is small;
当Cr2＞P≥Cr1时，泥石流发生的可能性中等；When Cr2>P≥Cr1, the possibility of debris flow is moderate;
当Cr3＞P≥Cr2时，泥石流发生的可能性大；When Cr3>P≥Cr2, the possibility of debris flow is high;
当P≥Cr3时，泥石流发生的可能性很大；When P≥Cr3, the possibility of debris flow is very high;
土壤的母岩岩石类型为花岗岩时，Cr1的取值为0.39；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩时，Cr1的取值为0.40；土壤的母岩岩石类型为正长岩时，Cr1的取值为0.40；土壤的母岩岩石类型为辉长岩时，Cr1的取值为0.40；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩时，Cr1的取值为0.48；土壤的母岩岩石类型为灰岩时，Cr1的取值为0.27；When the parent rock type of the soil is granite, the value of Cr1 is 0.39; when the parent rock type of the soil is sandstone interbedded with shale, the value of Cr1 is 0.40; when the parent rock type of the soil is syenite, the value of Cr1 The value of Cr1 is 0.40; when the parent rock type of soil is gabbro, the value of Cr1 is 0.40; when the parent rock type of soil is sandstone, the value of Cr1 is 0.48; the parent rock type of soil is lime For rock, the value of Cr1 is 0.27;
土壤的母岩岩石类型为花岗岩时，Cr2的取值为0.46；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩时，Cr2的取值为0.48；土壤的母岩岩石类型为正长岩时，Cr2的取值为0.47；土壤的母岩岩石类型为辉长岩时，Cr2的取值为0.47；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩时，Cr2的取值为0.56；土壤的母岩岩石类型为灰岩时，Cr2的取值为0.31；When the parent rock type of the soil is granite, the value of Cr2 is 0.46; when the parent rock type of the soil is sandstone interbedded with shale, the value of Cr2 is 0.48; when the parent rock type of the soil is syenite, the value of Cr2 The value of Cr2 is 0.47; when the parent rock type of soil is gabbro, the value of Cr2 is 0.47; when the parent rock type of soil is sandstone, the value of Cr2 is 0.56; the parent rock type of soil is lime When rock, the value of Cr2 is 0.31;
土壤的母岩岩石类型为花岗岩时，Cr3的取值为0.53；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩时，Cr3的取值为0.55；土壤的母岩岩石类型为正长岩时，Cr3的取值为0.54；土壤的母岩岩石类型为辉长岩时，Cr3的取值为0.54；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩时，Cr3的取值为0.65；土壤的母岩岩石类型为灰岩时，Cr3的取值为0.37。When the parent rock type of the soil is granite, the value of Cr3 is 0.53; when the parent rock type of the soil is sandstone interbedded with shale, the value of Cr3 is 0.55; The value of Cr3 is 0.54; when the parent rock type of soil is gabbro, the value of Cr3 is 0.54; when the parent rock type of soil is sandstone, the value of Cr3 is 0.65; the parent rock type of soil is lime For rock, the value of Cr3 is 0.37.
本实施例为最基本的实施方式，同时考虑了引发泥石流的地形和水文两大因素的作用及其相互影响，在判断临界值时引入了地质因素，因此测算结果更符合泥石流形成机理，提高了泥石流预警准确度；而且不需要泥石流发生的大量历史观测数据，只需要确定泥石流流域的地形因子，地质特征与降雨观测数据即可，预警效率更高，具有更高的防灾适用性。This embodiment is the most basic implementation mode, considering the effects of the two major factors of landform and hydrology that cause debris flow and their mutual influence, and introducing geological factors when judging the critical value, so the calculation results are more in line with the formation mechanism of debris flow, and improve the The accuracy of debris flow early warning; and does not require a large amount of historical observation data of debris flow, only need to determine the topographic factors, geological characteristics and rainfall observation data of the debris flow basin, the early warning efficiency is higher, and it has higher disaster prevention applicability.
实施例2Example 2
一种浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流预警方法，包括以下步骤：A shallow landslide type valley debris flow early warning method, comprising the following steps:
a、通过高精度地形图测量不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积A；a. Measure the area A of the entire watershed without debris flow in accumulation areas through high-precision topographic maps;
b、通过高精度地形图测量敏感坡度面积占不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积百分比S0和沟床纵比降J，根据式1确定泥石流地形因子T；b. Measure the percentage of the sensitive slope area in the total area of the debris flow excluding the accumulation area S 0 and the vertical slope J of the gully bed through the high-precision topographic map, and determine the topographic factor T of the debris flow according to formula 1;
T＝S0J0.3(A/A0)0.2 式1T＝S 0 J 0.3 (A/A 0 ) 0.2 Formula 1
其中，T为泥石流地形因子；S0为敏感坡度面积占不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积百分比；J为沟床纵比降；A为不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积，km2；A0为单位面积，1km2；Among them, T is the terrain factor of debris flow; S 0 is the percentage of sensitive slope area in the total area of debris flow without accumulation area; J is the vertical gradient of gully bed; A is the total area of debris flow without accumulation area, km 2 ; A 0 is Unit area, 1km 2 ;
c、查阅水文手册确定监测区域的泥石流沟道年平均降雨量R0和泥石流沟道1小时降雨变差系数Cv，现场实地测量1小时激发降雨量It，确定土壤的母岩岩石类型，计算土壤含水率因子K，根据式2确定泥石流降雨因子R；c. Consult the hydrological manual to determine the annual average rainfall R 0 of the debris flow channel in the monitoring area and the 1-hour rainfall variation coefficient C v of the debris flow channel, measure the 1-hour induced rainfall It on the spot, determine the parent rock type of the soil, and calculate Soil moisture content factor K, determine debris flow rainfall factor R according to formula 2;
其中，R为泥石流降雨因子；R*为激发降雨指标，mm；R0为泥石流沟道年平均降雨量，mm；Cv为泥石流沟道1小时降雨变差系数；K为土壤含水率因子，mm；It为1小时激发降雨量，mm；Among them, R is the debris flow rainfall factor; R* is the triggering rainfall index, mm; R 0 is the annual average rainfall of the debris flow channel, mm; C v is the 1-hour rainfall variation coefficient of the debris flow channel; K is the soil moisture content factor, mm; It is the induced rainfall in 1 hour, mm;
d、根据式3计算泥石流的发生指标P；d. Calculate the occurrence index P of debris flow according to formula 3;
P＝RT0.45 式3P = RT 0.45 Equation 3
其中，P为泥石流的发生指标；R为泥石流降雨因子；T为泥石流地形因子；Among them, P is the occurrence index of debris flow; R is the rainfall factor of debris flow; T is the terrain factor of debris flow;
e、根据土壤的母岩岩石类型判断泥石流的发生：e. Judging the occurrence of debris flow according to the type of parent rock of the soil:
当P＜Cr1时，泥石流发生的可能性小；When P<Cr1, the possibility of debris flow is small;
当Cr2＞P≥Cr1时，泥石流发生的可能性中等；When Cr2>P≥Cr1, the possibility of debris flow is moderate;
当Cr3＞P≥Cr2时，泥石流发生的可能性大；When Cr3>P≥Cr2, the possibility of debris flow is high;
当P≥Cr3时，泥石流发生的可能性很大；When P≥Cr3, the possibility of debris flow is very high;
土壤的母岩岩石类型为花岗岩时，Cr1的取值为0.39；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩时，Cr1的取值为0.40；土壤的母岩岩石类型为正长岩时，Cr1的取值为0.40；土壤的母岩岩石类型为辉长岩时，Cr1的取值为0.40；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩时，Cr1的取值为0.48；土壤的母岩岩石类型为灰岩时，Cr1的取值为0.27；When the parent rock type of the soil is granite, the value of Cr1 is 0.39; when the parent rock type of the soil is sandstone interbedded with shale, the value of Cr1 is 0.40; when the parent rock type of the soil is syenite, the value of Cr1 The value of Cr1 is 0.40; when the parent rock type of soil is gabbro, the value of Cr1 is 0.40; when the parent rock type of soil is sandstone, the value of Cr1 is 0.48; the parent rock type of soil is lime For rock, the value of Cr1 is 0.27;
土壤的母岩岩石类型为花岗岩时，Cr2的取值为0.46；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩时，Cr2的取值为0.48；土壤的母岩岩石类型为正长岩时，Cr2的取值为0.47；土壤的母岩岩石类型为辉长岩时，Cr2的取值为0.47；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩时，Cr2的取值为0.56；土壤的母岩岩石类型为灰岩时，Cr2的取值为0.31；When the parent rock type of the soil is granite, the value of Cr2 is 0.46; when the parent rock type of the soil is sandstone interbedded with shale, the value of Cr2 is 0.48; when the parent rock type of the soil is syenite, the value of Cr2 The value of Cr2 is 0.47; when the parent rock type of soil is gabbro, the value of Cr2 is 0.47; when the parent rock type of soil is sandstone, the value of Cr2 is 0.56; the parent rock type of soil is lime When rock, the value of Cr2 is 0.31;
土壤的母岩岩石类型为花岗岩时，Cr3的取值为0.53；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩时，Cr3的取值为0.55；土壤的母岩岩石类型为正长岩时，Cr3的取值为0.54；土壤的母岩岩石类型为辉长岩时，Cr3的取值为0.54；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩时，Cr3的取值为0.65；土壤的母岩岩石类型为灰岩时，Cr3的取值为0.37。When the parent rock type of the soil is granite, the value of Cr3 is 0.53; when the parent rock type of the soil is sandstone interbedded with shale, the value of Cr3 is 0.55; The value of Cr3 is 0.54; when the parent rock type of soil is gabbro, the value of Cr3 is 0.54; when the parent rock type of soil is sandstone, the value of Cr3 is 0.65; the parent rock type of soil is lime For rock, the value of Cr3 is 0.37.
所述步骤b中，敏感坡度是指坡度为25-45°。In the step b, the sensitive slope refers to a slope of 25-45°.
所述步骤c中，土壤含水率因子K通过计算获取，当土壤为湿润区时，根据式4计算；当土壤为过渡区时，根据式5计算；当土壤为干旱区时，根据式6计算；In the step c, the soil moisture factor K is obtained by calculation. When the soil is in a humid area, it is calculated according to formula 4; when the soil is in a transitional area, it is calculated according to formula 5; when the soil is in an arid area, it is calculated according to formula 6 ;
K＝3×10-8×e54.7Sm 式4K＝3×10 -8 ×e 54.7Sm Formula 4
K＝1×10-8×e56.7Sm 式5K＝1×10 -8 ×e 56.7Sm Formula 5
K＝8×10-18×e163Sm 式6K＝8×10 -18 ×e 163Sm formula 6
其中，Sm为土壤含水率，当土壤为湿润区时，土壤含水率Sm由式7计算；当土壤为过渡区时，土壤含水率Sm由式8计算；当土壤为干旱区时，土壤含水率Sm由式9计算；e为基数，e＝2.71828；Among them, Sm is the soil moisture content. When the soil is in the humid area, the soil moisture content Sm is calculated by formula 7; when the soil is in the transition zone, the soil moisture content Sm is calculated by formula 8; when the soil is in the dry area, the soil moisture content Sm is calculated by formula 9; e is the base, e=2.71828;
Sm＝α(0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452) 式7Sm=α(0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452) Formula 7
Sm＝0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452 式8Sm＝0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452 Formula 8
Sm＝β(0.0058ln(Mi)+0.2475) 式9Sm=β(0.0058ln(Mi)+0.2475) Formula 9
其中，Sm为土壤含水率，α为湿润区修正系数，当日降雨＞1mm时取1，当日降雨≤1mm时取1.15；β为干旱区系数，当日降雨＞1mm时取1，当日降雨≤1mm时取0.8；Mi为湿润指数，由式10计算；Among them, Sm is the soil moisture content, α is the correction coefficient of the wet area, 1 is taken when the daily rainfall is > 1 mm, and 1.15 is taken when the daily rainfall is ≤ 1 mm; Take 0.8; Mi is the humidity index, calculated by formula 10;
Mi＝B/pe 式10Mi=B/pe Formula 10
其中，Mi为湿润指数；B为日降水量，mm/d；pe为最大潜热蒸发，mm/d，由式11-式14计算；Among them, Mi is the humidity index; B is the daily precipitation, mm/d; pe is the maximum latent heat evaporation, mm/d, calculated by formula 11-14;
a＝(1.492+1.792×10-2I-7.71×10-3I2+6.75×10-7I3 式12a=(1.492+1.792×10 -2 I-7.71×10 -3 I 2 +6.75×10 -7 I 3 Formula 12
其中，pe为最大潜热蒸发，mm/d；Ta为日平均温度，℃；h为年日光平均长度，I为逐月总加热指数；a为指数；Tm为月平均温度，℃；i为系数。Among them, pe is the maximum latent heat evaporation, mm/d; Ta is the average daily temperature, ℃; h is the average length of sunlight per year, I is the total monthly heating index; a is the index; Tm is the monthly average temperature, ℃; i is the coefficient .
本实施例为一较佳实施方式，对于泥石流起动的临界降雨量与地质相关阈值的测算同时考虑了引发泥石流的地形及水文两大因素的作用，对于既定泥石流沟道而言，测算泥石流起动的降雨量阈值不需要泥石流发生的大量历史观测数据，由于除科研设置的泥石流观测站以外，绝大部分泥石流沟道均无泥石流发生的长期观测数据，因此对于既定泥石流沟道的泥石流预报具有更高的防灾适用性。This embodiment is a better implementation mode. For the calculation of the critical rainfall and geological correlation threshold for the initiation of debris flow, the effects of the topography and hydrology factors that cause the debris flow are considered at the same time. The rainfall threshold does not require a large amount of historical observation data of debris flow occurrence. Since most debris flow channels have no long-term observation data of debris flow occurrence except for the debris flow observation stations set up by scientific research, the debris flow forecast for a given debris flow channel has a higher suitability for disaster prevention.
实施例3Example 3
一种浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流预警方法，包括以下步骤：A shallow landslide type valley debris flow early warning method, comprising the following steps:
a、通过高精度地形图测量不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积A；a. Measure the area A of the entire watershed without debris flow in accumulation areas through high-precision topographic maps;
b、通过高精度地形图测量敏感坡度面积占不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积百分比S0和沟床纵比降J，根据式1确定泥石流地形因子T；b. Measure the percentage of the sensitive slope area in the total area of the debris flow excluding the accumulation area S 0 and the vertical slope J of the gully bed through the high-precision topographic map, and determine the topographic factor T of the debris flow according to formula 1;
T＝S0J0.3(A/A0)0.2 式1T＝S 0 J 0.3 (A/A 0 ) 0.2 Formula 1
其中，T为泥石流地形因子；S0为敏感坡度面积占不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积百分比；J为沟床纵比降；A为不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积，km2；A0为单位面积，1km2；Among them, T is the terrain factor of debris flow; S 0 is the percentage of sensitive slope area in the total area of debris flow without accumulation area; J is the vertical gradient of gully bed; A is the total area of debris flow without accumulation area, km 2 ; A 0 is Unit area, 1km 2 ;
c、查阅水文手册确定监测区域的泥石流沟道年平均降雨量R0和泥石流沟道1小时降雨变差系数Cv，现场实地测量1小时激发降雨量It，确定土壤的母岩岩石类型，计算土壤含水率因子K，根据式2确定泥石流降雨因子R；c. Consult the hydrological manual to determine the annual average rainfall R 0 of the debris flow channel in the monitoring area and the 1-hour rainfall variation coefficient C v of the debris flow channel, measure the 1-hour induced rainfall It on the spot, determine the parent rock type of the soil, and calculate Soil moisture content factor K, determine debris flow rainfall factor R according to formula 2;
其中，R为泥石流降雨因子；R*为激发降雨指标，mm；R0为泥石流沟道年平均降雨量，mm；Cv为泥石流沟道1小时降雨变差系数；K为土壤含水率因子，mm；It为1小时激发降雨量，mm；Among them, R is the debris flow rainfall factor; R* is the triggering rainfall index, mm; R 0 is the annual average rainfall of the debris flow channel, mm; C v is the 1-hour rainfall variation coefficient of the debris flow channel; K is the soil moisture content factor, mm; It is the induced rainfall in 1 hour, mm;
d、根据式3计算泥石流的发生指标P；d. Calculate the occurrence index P of debris flow according to formula 3;
P＝RT0.45 式3P = RT 0.45 Equation 3
其中，P为泥石流的发生指标；R为泥石流降雨因子；T为泥石流地形因子；Among them, P is the occurrence index of debris flow; R is the rainfall factor of debris flow; T is the terrain factor of debris flow;
e、根据土壤的母岩岩石类型判断泥石流的发生：e. Judging the occurrence of debris flow according to the type of parent rock of the soil:
当P＜Cr1时，泥石流发生的可能性小；When P<Cr1, the possibility of debris flow is small;
当Cr2＞P≥Cr1时，泥石流发生的可能性中等；When Cr2>P≥Cr1, the possibility of debris flow is moderate;
当Cr3＞P≥Cr2时，泥石流发生的可能性大；When Cr3>P≥Cr2, the possibility of debris flow is high;
当P≥Cr3时，泥石流发生的可能性很大；When P≥Cr3, the possibility of debris flow is very high;
土壤的母岩岩石类型为花岗岩时，Cr1的取值为0.39；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩时，Cr1的取值为0.40；土壤的母岩岩石类型为正长岩时，Cr1的取值为0.40；土壤的母岩岩石类型为辉长岩时，Cr1的取值为0.40；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩时，Cr1的取值为0.48；土壤的母岩岩石类型为灰岩时，Cr1的取值为0.27；When the parent rock type of the soil is granite, the value of Cr1 is 0.39; when the parent rock type of the soil is sandstone interbedded with shale, the value of Cr1 is 0.40; when the parent rock type of the soil is syenite, the value of Cr1 The value of Cr1 is 0.40; when the parent rock type of soil is gabbro, the value of Cr1 is 0.40; when the parent rock type of soil is sandstone, the value of Cr1 is 0.48; the parent rock type of soil is lime For rock, the value of Cr1 is 0.27;
土壤的母岩岩石类型为花岗岩时，Cr2的取值为0.46；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩时，Cr2的取值为0.48；土壤的母岩岩石类型为正长岩时，Cr2的取值为0.47；土壤的母岩岩石类型为辉长岩时，Cr2的取值为0.47；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩时，Cr2的取值为0.56；土壤的母岩岩石类型为灰岩时，Cr2的取值为0.31；When the parent rock type of the soil is granite, the value of Cr2 is 0.46; when the parent rock type of the soil is sandstone interbedded with shale, the value of Cr2 is 0.48; when the parent rock type of the soil is syenite, the value of Cr2 The value of Cr2 is 0.47; when the parent rock type of soil is gabbro, the value of Cr2 is 0.47; when the parent rock type of soil is sandstone, the value of Cr2 is 0.56; the parent rock type of soil is lime When rock, the value of Cr2 is 0.31;
土壤的母岩岩石类型为花岗岩时，Cr3的取值为0.53；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩时，Cr3的取值为0.55；土壤的母岩岩石类型为正长岩时，Cr3的取值为0.54；土壤的母岩岩石类型为辉长岩时，Cr3的取值为0.54；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩时，Cr3的取值为0.65；土壤的母岩岩石类型为灰岩时，Cr3的取值为0.37。When the parent rock type of the soil is granite, the value of Cr3 is 0.53; when the parent rock type of the soil is sandstone interbedded with shale, the value of Cr3 is 0.55; The value of Cr3 is 0.54; when the parent rock type of soil is gabbro, the value of Cr3 is 0.54; when the parent rock type of soil is sandstone, the value of Cr3 is 0.65; the parent rock type of soil is lime For rock, the value of Cr3 is 0.37.
所述步骤b中，敏感坡度是指坡度为25-45°。In the step b, the sensitive slope refers to a slope of 25-45°.
所述步骤c中，土壤含水率因子K通过计算获取，当土壤为湿润区时，根据式4计算；当土壤为过渡区时，根据式5计算；当土壤为干旱区时，根据式6计算；In the step c, the soil moisture factor K is obtained by calculation. When the soil is in a humid area, it is calculated according to formula 4; when the soil is in a transitional area, it is calculated according to formula 5; when the soil is in an arid area, it is calculated according to formula 6 ;
K＝3×10-8×e54.7Sm 式4K＝3×10 -8 ×e 54.7Sm Formula 4
K＝1×10-8×e56.7Sm 式5K＝1×10 -8 ×e 56.7Sm Formula 5
K＝8×10-18×e163Sm 式6K＝8×10 -18 ×e 163Sm formula 6
其中，Sm为土壤含水率，当土壤为湿润区时，土壤含水率Sm由式7计算；当土壤为过渡区时，土壤含水率Sm由式8计算；当土壤为干旱区时，土壤含水率Sm由式9计算；e为基数，e＝2.71828；Among them, Sm is the soil moisture content. When the soil is in the humid area, the soil moisture content Sm is calculated by formula 7; when the soil is in the transition zone, the soil moisture content Sm is calculated by formula 8; when the soil is in the dry area, the soil moisture content Sm is calculated by formula 9; e is the base, e=2.71828;
Sm＝α(0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452) 式7Sm=α(0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452) Formula 7
Sm＝0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452 式8Sm＝0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452 Formula 8
Sm＝β(0.0058ln(Mi)+0.2475) 式9Sm=β(0.0058ln(Mi)+0.2475) Formula 9
其中，Sm为土壤含水率，α为湿润区修正系数，当日降雨＞1mm时取1，当日降雨≤1mm时取1.15；β为干旱区系数，当日降雨＞1mm时取1，当日降雨≤1mm时取0.8；Mi为湿润指数，由式10计算；Among them, Sm is the soil moisture content, α is the correction coefficient of the wet area, 1 is taken when the daily rainfall is > 1 mm, and 1.15 is taken when the daily rainfall is ≤ 1 mm; Take 0.8; Mi is the humidity index, calculated by formula 10;
Mi＝B/pe 式10Mi=B/pe Formula 10
其中，Mi为湿润指数；B为日降水量，mm/d；pe为最大潜热蒸发，mm/d，由式11-式14计算；Among them, Mi is the humidity index; B is the daily precipitation, mm/d; pe is the maximum latent heat evaporation, mm/d, calculated by formula 11-14;
a＝0.492+1.792×10-2I-7.71×10-5I2+6.75×10-7I3 式12a＝0.492+1.792×10 -2 I-7.71×10 -5 I 2 +6.75×10 -7 I 3 Formula 12
其中，pe为最大潜热蒸发，mm/d；Ta为日平均温度，℃；h为年日光平均长度，I为逐月总加热指数；a为指数；Tm为月平均温度，℃；i为系数。Among them, pe is the maximum latent heat evaporation, mm/d; Ta is the average daily temperature, ℃; h is the average length of sunlight per year, I is the total monthly heating index; a is the index; Tm is the monthly average temperature, ℃; i is the coefficient .
本实施例为又一较佳实施方式，能够用于无资料地区的低频率浅表层土质滑坡型沟谷泥石流的预警，利于提高防灾效果。This embodiment is yet another preferred implementation manner, which can be used for early warning of low-frequency shallow surface soil landslide-type gully debris flows in areas without data, which is beneficial to improving disaster prevention effects.
实施例4Example 4
一种浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流预警方法，包括以下步骤：A shallow landslide type valley debris flow early warning method, comprising the following steps:
a、通过高精度地形图测量不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积A；a. Measure the area A of the entire watershed without debris flow in accumulation areas through high-precision topographic maps;
b、通过高精度地形图测量敏感坡度面积占不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积百分比S0和沟床纵比降J，根据式1确定泥石流地形因子T；b. Measure the percentage of the sensitive slope area in the total area of the debris flow excluding the accumulation area S 0 and the vertical slope J of the gully bed through the high-precision topographic map, and determine the topographic factor T of the debris flow according to formula 1;
T＝S0J0.3(A/A0)0.2 式1T＝S 0 J 0.3 (A/A 0 ) 0.2 Formula 1
其中，T为泥石流地形因子；S0为敏感坡度面积占不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积百分比；J为沟床纵比降；A为不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积，km2；A0为单位面积，1km2；Among them, T is the terrain factor of debris flow; S 0 is the percentage of sensitive slope area in the total area of debris flow without accumulation area; J is the vertical gradient of gully bed; A is the total area of debris flow without accumulation area, km 2 ; A 0 is Unit area, 1km 2 ;
c、查阅水文手册确定监测区域的泥石流沟道年平均降雨量R0和泥石流沟道1小时降雨变差系数Cv，现场实地测量1小时激发降雨量It，确定土壤的母岩岩石类型，计算土壤含水率因子K，根据式2确定泥石流降雨因子R；c. Consult the hydrological manual to determine the annual average rainfall R 0 of the debris flow channel in the monitoring area and the 1-hour rainfall variation coefficient C v of the debris flow channel, measure the 1-hour induced rainfall It on the spot, determine the parent rock type of the soil, and calculate Soil moisture content factor K, determine debris flow rainfall factor R according to formula 2;
其中，R为泥石流降雨因子；R*为激发降雨指标，mm；R0为泥石流沟道年平均降雨量，mm；Cv为泥石流沟道1小时降雨变差系数；K为土壤含水率因子，mm；It为1小时激发降雨量，mm；Among them, R is the debris flow rainfall factor; R* is the triggering rainfall index, mm; R 0 is the annual average rainfall of the debris flow channel, mm; C v is the 1-hour rainfall variation coefficient of the debris flow channel; K is the soil moisture content factor, mm; It is the induced rainfall in 1 hour, mm;
d、根据式3计算泥石流的发生指标P；d. Calculate the occurrence index P of debris flow according to formula 3;
P＝RT0.45 式3P = RT 0.45 Equation 3
其中，P为泥石流的发生指标；R为泥石流降雨因子；T为泥石流地形因子；Among them, P is the occurrence index of debris flow; R is the rainfall factor of debris flow; T is the terrain factor of debris flow;
e、根据土壤的母岩岩石类型判断泥石流的发生：e. Judging the occurrence of debris flow according to the type of parent rock of the soil:
当P＜Cr1时，泥石流发生的可能性小；When P<Cr1, the possibility of debris flow is small;
当Cr2＞P≥Cr1时，泥石流发生的可能性中等；When Cr2>P≥Cr1, the possibility of debris flow is moderate;
当Cr3＞P≥Cr2时，泥石流发生的可能性大；When Cr3>P≥Cr2, the possibility of debris flow is high;
当P≥Cr3时，泥石流发生的可能性很大；When P≥Cr3, the possibility of debris flow is very high;
土壤的母岩岩石类型为花岗岩时，Cr1的取值为0.39；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩时，Cr1的取值为0.40；土壤的母岩岩石类型为正长岩时，Cr1的取值为0.40；土壤的母岩岩石类型为辉长岩时，Cr1的取值为0.40；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩时，Cr1的取值为0.48；土壤的母岩岩石类型为灰岩时，Cr1的取值为0.27；When the parent rock type of the soil is granite, the value of Cr1 is 0.39; when the parent rock type of the soil is sandstone interbedded with shale, the value of Cr1 is 0.40; when the parent rock type of the soil is syenite, the value of Cr1 The value of Cr1 is 0.40; when the parent rock type of soil is gabbro, the value of Cr1 is 0.40; when the parent rock type of soil is sandstone, the value of Cr1 is 0.48; the parent rock type of soil is lime For rock, the value of Cr1 is 0.27;
土壤的母岩岩石类型为花岗岩时，Cr2的取值为0.46；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩时，Cr2的取值为0.48；土壤的母岩岩石类型为正长岩时，Cr2的取值为0.47；土壤的母岩岩石类型为辉长岩时，Cr2的取值为0.47；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩时，Cr2的取值为0.56；土壤的母岩岩石类型为灰岩时，Cr2的取值为0.31；When the parent rock type of the soil is granite, the value of Cr2 is 0.46; when the parent rock type of the soil is sandstone interbedded with shale, the value of Cr2 is 0.48; when the parent rock type of the soil is syenite, the value of Cr2 The value of Cr2 is 0.47; when the parent rock type of soil is gabbro, the value of Cr2 is 0.47; when the parent rock type of soil is sandstone, the value of Cr2 is 0.56; the parent rock type of soil is lime When rock, the value of Cr2 is 0.31;
土壤的母岩岩石类型为花岗岩时，Cr3的取值为0.53；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩时，Cr3的取值为0.55；土壤的母岩岩石类型为正长岩时，Cr3的取值为0.54；土壤的母岩岩石类型为辉长岩时，Cr3的取值为0.54；土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩时，Cr3的取值为0.65；土壤的母岩岩石类型为灰岩时，Cr3的取值为0.37。When the parent rock type of the soil is granite, the value of Cr3 is 0.53; when the parent rock type of the soil is sandstone interbedded with shale, the value of Cr3 is 0.55; The value of Cr3 is 0.54; when the parent rock type of soil is gabbro, the value of Cr3 is 0.54; when the parent rock type of soil is sandstone, the value of Cr3 is 0.65; the parent rock type of soil is lime For rock, the value of Cr3 is 0.37.
所述步骤b中，敏感坡度是指坡度为25-45°。In the step b, the sensitive slope refers to a slope of 25-45°.
所述步骤c中，土壤含水率因子K通过计算获取，当土壤为湿润区时，根据式4计算；当土壤为过渡区时，根据式5计算；当土壤为干旱区时，根据式6计算；In the step c, the soil moisture factor K is obtained by calculation. When the soil is in a humid area, it is calculated according to formula 4; when the soil is in a transitional area, it is calculated according to formula 5; when the soil is in an arid area, it is calculated according to formula 6 ;
K＝3×10-8×e54.7Sm 式4K＝3×10 -8 ×e 54.7Sm Formula 4
K＝1×10-8×e56.7Sm 式5K＝1×10 -8 ×e 56.7Sm Formula 5
K＝8×10-18×e163Sm 式6K＝8×10 -18 ×e 163Sm formula 6
其中，Sm为土壤含水率，当土壤为湿润区时，土壤含水率Sm由式7计算；当土壤为过渡区时，土壤含水率Sm由式8计算；当土壤为干旱区时，土壤含水率Sm由式9计算；e为基数，e＝2.71828；Among them, Sm is the soil moisture content. When the soil is in the humid area, the soil moisture content Sm is calculated by formula 7; when the soil is in the transition zone, the soil moisture content Sm is calculated by formula 8; when the soil is in the dry area, the soil moisture content Sm is calculated by formula 9; e is the base, e=2.71828;
Sm＝α(0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452) 式7Sm=α(0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452) Formula 7
Sm＝0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452 式8Sm＝0.0168ln(Mi)+0.3452 Formula 8
Sm＝β(0.0058ln(Mi)+0.2475) 式9Sm=β(0.0058ln(Mi)+0.2475) Formula 9
其中，Sm为土壤含水率，α为湿润区修正系数，当日降雨＞1mm时取1，当日降雨≤1mm时取1.15；β为干旱区系数，当日降雨＞1mm时取1，当日降雨≤1mm时取0.8；Mi为湿润指数，由式10计算；Among them, Sm is the soil moisture content, α is the correction coefficient of the wet area, 1 is taken when the daily rainfall is > 1 mm, and 1.15 is taken when the daily rainfall is ≤ 1 mm; Take 0.8; Mi is the humidity index, calculated by formula 10;
Mi＝B/pe 式10Mi=B/pe Formula 10
其中，Mi为湿润指数；B为日降水量，mm/d；pe为最大潜热蒸发，mm/d，由式11-式14计算；Among them, Mi is the humidity index; B is the daily precipitation, mm/d; pe is the maximum latent heat evaporation, mm/d, calculated by formula 11-14;
a＝0.492+1.792×10-2I-7.71×10-5I2+6.75×10-7I3 式12a＝0.492+1.792×10 -2 I-7.71×10 -5 I 2 +6.75×10 -7 I 3 Formula 12
其中，pe为最大潜热蒸发，mm/d；Ta为日平均温度，℃；h为年日光平均长度，I为逐月总加热指数；a为指数；Tm为月平均温度，℃；i为系数。Among them, pe is the maximum latent heat evaporation, mm/d; Ta is the average daily temperature, ℃; h is the average length of sunlight per year, I is the total monthly heating index; a is the index; Tm is the monthly average temperature, ℃; i is the coefficient .
所述土壤为湿润区是指R0≥1.38S-1068；土壤为过渡区是指1.38S-1068＞R0≥1.38S-1965；土壤为干旱区是指R0＜1.38S-1965；其中，R0为泥石流沟道年平均降雨量，mm；S为多年平均日照时数，h。The soil is in a humid area means R 0 ≥ 1.38S-1068; the soil in a transitional area means 1.38S-1068 > R 0 ≥ 1.38S-1965; the soil in an arid area means R 0 <1.38S-1965; wherein , R 0 is the annual average rainfall of the debris flow channel, mm; S is the annual average sunshine hours, h.
本实施例为最佳实施方式，用直接的土壤含水率代替间接的前期降雨影响，提出了定量的浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流发生的可能性计算方法和指标，极大的提高了预警准确性。This example is the best way to implement it. The direct soil moisture content is used to replace the indirect impact of early rainfall, and a quantitative calculation method and index for the possibility of shallow landslide-type valley debris flow are proposed, which greatly improves the accuracy of early warning.
因土壤湿润区、干旱区及过渡区的降雨与蒸发有很大区别，对土壤含水率有很大影响，通过将这三个区域分开计算，使得计算的土壤含水率更加准确，进而能够保障预警准确性。Because the rainfall and evaporation in the wet area, arid area, and transition area are very different, they have a great impact on the soil moisture content. By calculating these three areas separately, the calculated soil moisture content is more accurate, and the early warning can be guaranteed. accuracy.
以日降雨量为基础，充分考虑日照时间、日温、月平均温度及加热指数影响土壤含水率的各参数，能够确保计算的土壤含水率更加准确。Based on the daily rainfall, fully considering the sunshine time, daily temperature, monthly average temperature and heating index of various parameters affecting the soil moisture content, can ensure that the calculated soil moisture content is more accurate.
以24h降雨和温度为计算依据计算土壤含水率，但是优于一般意义上的24h降雨和温度：一般意义上的24h降雨和温度，指特定时间段，如第一天8时到第二天8时；或第一天20时到第二天20时的降雨与温度；而本发明的24h降雨和温度，则是预警前24h的降雨与温度，即随每小时的时间推进，逐渐在更新变化的，每一小时都在更新降雨与温度，其优点在于每小时更新了降雨与温度数据，使得预警时的数据更准确；避免了特定时间段的降雨与温度数据不能反映预警时刻的实际情况，或在特定时间，如第二日的8时或20时进行预警造成预警滞后的情况。The soil moisture content is calculated based on 24h rainfall and temperature, but it is better than the 24h rainfall and temperature in the general sense: the 24h rainfall and temperature in the general sense refers to a specific period of time, such as 8:00 on the first day to 8:00 on the second day or the rainfall and temperature from 20:00 on the first day to 20:00 on the next day; and the 24h rainfall and temperature of the present invention are the rainfall and temperature of the 24h before the early warning, that is, gradually updating and changing as the hourly time advances Yes, the rainfall and temperature are updated every hour. The advantage is that the rainfall and temperature data are updated every hour, making the data during the early warning more accurate; avoiding that the rainfall and temperature data in a specific period of time cannot reflect the actual situation at the early warning time. Or at a specific time, such as at 8 o'clock or 20 o'clock on the second day, an early warning is carried out to cause a delay in the early warning.
下面结合具体实列对本发明进行详细说明。The present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with specific examples.
2011年6月5日晚到6日凌晨，受高空风切变和冷空气影响，望谟县境内中部以北大部分区域出现短历时强降雨，部分地区出现特大暴雨该区域暴雨中心从打易镇向南逐渐发展，且降雨强度由南至北逐渐降低。该区域土壤的母岩岩石类型为砂岩夹页岩，区域内共有75条沟，其中29条沟发生了浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流，46条沟没有发生浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流。From the evening of June 5th to the early morning of June 6th, 2011, affected by high-altitude wind shear and cold air, short-duration heavy rainfall occurred in most areas north of the central part of Wangmo County, and some areas experienced heavy rainstorms. The center of the rainstorm in the area was from Dayi Town It gradually develops towards the south, and the rainfall intensity gradually decreases from south to north. The parent rock type of the soil in this area is sandstone interbedded with shale. There are 75 ditches in the area, of which 29 gullies have shallow landslide-type gully debris flows, and 46 gullies have no shallow landslide-type gully debris flows.
下面采用本发明对上述75条泥石流流域进行预警。Adopt the present invention below to carry out early warning to above-mentioned 75 mud-rock flow basins.
首先高精度地形图测量不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积A、敏感坡度面积占不含堆积区泥石流全流域面积百分比S0和沟床纵比降J；再根据表1中砂岩夹页岩对应的Cr1、Cr2和Cr3值分别为：0.40、0.48和0.55。Firstly, the high-precision topographic map measures the area A of the whole basin of debris flow without accumulation area, the percentage of sensitive slope area in the total area of debris flow without accumulation area S0, and the vertical gradient J of the gully bed; , Cr2 and Cr3 values are: 0.40, 0.48 and 0.55, respectively.
表1Table 1
再根据望谟多年平均日照时数S及年平均降雨量，确定当地气候区划，并由泥石流流域实际的监测得到的温度数据计算得到泥石流发生当日最大潜热蒸发pe，同时采用监测得到的日降水量B及最大潜热蒸发pe计算得到泥石流发生时刻环境的湿润指数Mi，其次依据湿润指数Mi计算得到土壤含水率Sm，最终由泥石流发生时刻土壤含水率Sm计算得到泥石流发生时的土壤含水率因子K。查阅水文手册得到泥石流沟道1小时降雨变差系数Cv＝0.4，根据实际监测得到泥石流形成区流域所在位置的1小时激发降雨量，结合土壤含水率因子K计算得到降雨指标和泥石流降雨因子R，再计算得到泥石流的发生指标P。Then, according to Wangmo's annual average sunshine hours S and annual average rainfall, determine the local climate division, and calculate the maximum latent heat evaporation pe on the day when the debris flow occurred from the actual monitoring temperature data of the debris flow basin, and use the daily precipitation obtained from monitoring B and the maximum latent heat evaporation pe are calculated to obtain the humidity index Mi of the environment at the time of the debris flow, and then the soil moisture content Sm is calculated based on the moisture index Mi, and finally the soil moisture factor K at the time of the debris flow is calculated from the soil moisture content Sm at the time of the debris flow. Consult the hydrological manual to get the 1-hour rainfall variation coefficient C v = 0.4 in the debris flow channel. According to the actual monitoring, the 1-hour induced rainfall at the location of the debris flow formation area is obtained. Combined with the soil moisture content factor K, the rainfall index and the debris flow rainfall factor R are calculated. , and then calculate the occurrence index P of debris flow.
75个泥石流流域的参数及计算的泥石流的发生指标P以及泥石流的实际发生情况如表2所示。Table 2 shows the parameters of the 75 debris flow basins, the calculated debris flow occurrence index P, and the actual occurrence of debris flows.
表2Table 2
根据泥石流的发生指标P进行预警：当P≥0.55时，泥石流发生的可能性很大；当0.48≤P＜0.58时，泥石流发生的可能性大；当0.40≤P＜0.48时，泥石流发生的可能性中等；当P＜0.40时，泥石流发生的可能性小。Carry out early warning according to the occurrence index P of debris flow: when P≥0.55, the possibility of debris flow is very high; when 0.48≤P＜0.58, the possibility of debris flow is high; when 0.40≤P＜0.48, the possibility of debris flow occurs Moderate; when P<0.40, the possibility of debris flow is small.
表2中判断泥石流发生可能性很大有11个，都发生泥石流；泥石流发生可能性大有23个，其中14个发生泥石流，9个没有发生泥石流；泥石流发生可能性中等的有32个，其中4个发生泥石流，28个没有发生泥石流；泥石流发生可能性小的有9个，都没有发生泥石流。In Table 2, it is judged that there are 11 cases with high probability of occurrence of debris flow, all of which have occurred; 23 cases with high probability of occurrence of debris flow, of which 14 have occurred with debris flow, and 9 have no occurrence of debris flow; There were 4 mudslides and 28 did not; 9 mudslides were less likely to occur, and no mudslides occurred.
综上所述，应用本发明所述方法对浅层滑坡型沟谷泥石流的预警准确性很高。To sum up, the early warning accuracy of shallow landslide type valley debris flow is very high by applying the method of the present invention.
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