CN114582092B - A method of early warning of valley debris flow based on soil moisture content - Google Patents
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Abstract
本发明公开了一种基于土壤含水率的沟谷泥石流预警方法，属于泥石流防治工程技术领域，其特征在于，包括以下步骤：S1、通过谷歌地球或地形图确定潜在泥石流流域的基本参数；S2、实时监测或预报泥石流流域形成区所在位置的前期降雨量和激发前10分钟降雨量；S3、调查泥石流流域形成区沟道平均宽度和泥石流流域形成区颗粒粒径；S4、计算泥石流流域地形因子T；S5、计算泥石流流域地质因子G；S6、计算诱发泥石流的降雨因子R；S7、判断泥石流的发生；本发明从沟谷泥石流的起动机理出发，直接采用土壤含水率作为激发泥石流降雨的一个主要前提条件，能够更准确地计算降雨贡献，从而更加精准的预警泥石流。The invention discloses a method for early warning of mud-rock flow in valleys based on soil moisture content, which belongs to the technical field of mud-rock flow prevention and control engineering, and is characterized in that it comprises the following steps: S1, determining the basic parameters of potential mud-rock flow basins through Google Earth or topographic maps; S2, real-time Monitor or forecast the pre-precipitation rainfall at the location where the debris flow basin is formed and the rainfall 10 minutes before the trigger; S3. Investigate the average width of the channel in the debris flow basin formation area and the particle size of the debris flow basin formation area; S4. Calculate the topographic factor T of the debris flow basin; S5, calculating the geological factor G of the debris flow basin; S6, calculating the rainfall factor R that induces the debris flow; S7, judging the occurrence of the debris flow; the present invention starts from the starting mechanism of the debris flow in the valley, and directly adopts the soil moisture content as a main prerequisite for stimulating the rainfall of the debris flow , can more accurately calculate the rainfall contribution, so that more accurate early warning of debris flow.
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及到泥石流防治工程技术领域，尤其涉及一种基于土壤含水率的沟谷泥石流预警方法。The invention relates to the technical field of mud-rock flow prevention and control engineering, in particular to a method for early warning of mud-rock flow in valleys based on soil moisture content.
背景技术Background technique
泥石流是一种发生在山区的自然灾害。水是泥石流形成的重要条件，降雨型泥石流中水源条件的主要因子为雨强、雨量、降雨频率及温度。由于短历时强降雨，雨强大于土壤渗透能力形成超渗产流。超渗产流在山坡坡面汇流后，在沟道内汇集形成山洪，洪水冲刷刮铲沟道内物源最后形成泥石流。对于沟床起动型沟谷泥石流，降雨是激发泥石流的关键参数。沟床起动型沟谷泥石流形成机理表明：强降雨作用下，地表形成超渗产流，大量降水以径流形式汇集到泥石流沟道中形成强大山洪，冲刷沟道内松散物源，继而掀动揭底形成泥石流。当降水强度大于土壤渗透能力时，才能形成超渗产流，而土壤渗透系数与土壤含水量关系密切，前期含水率越大，土壤渗透能力越弱，越易形成超渗产流。Debris flow is a natural disaster that occurs in mountainous areas. Water is an important condition for the formation of debris flows. The main factors of water source conditions in rainfall-type debris flows are rainfall intensity, rainfall amount, rainfall frequency and temperature. Due to the short-duration heavy rainfall, the rainfall is stronger than the soil infiltration capacity, resulting in super seepage runoff. After the super-seepage runoff converges on the hillside, it gathers in the gully to form a torrent, and the flood scours the sources in the scraper trench to form a debris flow. For the gully-bed-initiated valley debris flow, rainfall is the key parameter to trigger the debris flow. The formation mechanism of gully bed-starting valley debris flow shows that under the action of heavy rainfall, super seepage flow is formed on the surface, and a large amount of precipitation collects into the debris flow channel in the form of runoff to form a powerful torrent, scours the loose sources in the channel, and then lifts the bottom to form a debris flow. When the precipitation intensity is greater than the soil infiltration capacity, super-seepage runoff can be formed, and the soil permeability coefficient is closely related to soil water content. The higher the early water content, the weaker the soil infiltration capacity, and the easier it is to form super-seepage runoff.
沟床起动型沟谷泥石流的激发与短历时强降雨有关，一次最后的激发降雨量是关键，平均降雨强度及降雨历时，或总降雨量，都不适用于沟床起动型沟谷泥石流的预警。前期有效降雨量及激发降雨量可以很好地概括降雨条件，其中激发降雨量是泥石流预警的关键，也比较容易理解与获得。但是前期有效降雨量比较模糊。The triggering of gully bed-starting valley debris flow is related to short-duration heavy rainfall, and the last triggering rainfall is the key. The average rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, or total rainfall are not suitable for early warning of gully bed starting-type gully debris flow. Early effective rainfall and induced rainfall can well summarize the rainfall conditions. Among them, the induced rainfall is the key to early warning of debris flow, and it is relatively easy to understand and obtain. However, the effective rainfall in the early stage is relatively vague.
公开号为CN105740618A，公开日为2016年07月06日的中国专利文献公开了用于沟床起动型泥石流预测的降雨分割方法，其特征在于，包括以下过程：布置传感器实时测降雨量，根据该区域每小时的降雨数据，确定前1h的降雨值是否达到或超过降雨临界值R0：如果小于降雨临界值R0，则不计入前期降雨，即前期降雨量归0；如果大于或等于降雨临界值R0，就将该小时降雨量作为最早的前期降雨值R1，并把之后各小时的降雨值作为前期降雨值R2，R3，……，Rn，并逐小时叠加获得第n小时的前期降雨值和R：R＝R0+R1+R2+……+Rn；该段降雨量指最后1小时段的降雨，即第n+1小时的降雨Rn+1；前一个降雨结束后，之后的降雨重新开始计算降雨量和前期降雨量；最后，根据前期降雨值和R与该时段降雨量Rn+1，计算降雨综合值R*：R*＝R+13.5Rn+1。The publication number is CN105740618A, and the Chinese patent literature published on July 06, 2016 discloses a rainfall segmentation method for prediction of trench-bed start-up debris flow, which is characterized in that it includes the following process: arranging sensors to measure rainfall in real time, according to the The hourly rainfall data of the area, to determine whether the rainfall value in the previous 1 hour has reached or exceeded the rainfall critical value R0: if it is less than the rainfall critical value R0, it will not be included in the previous rainfall, that is, the previous rainfall will return to 0; if it is greater than or equal to the rainfall critical value R0, the hourly rainfall is taken as the earliest previous rainfall value R1, and the rainfall value of each subsequent hour is taken as the previous rainfall value R2, R3, ..., Rn, and the previous rainfall value of the nth hour is obtained by superimposing hour by hour and R: R＝R0+R1+R2+...+Rn; the rainfall in this period refers to the rainfall in the last 1 hour, that is, the rainfall Rn+1 in the n+1th hour; after the previous rainfall ends, the following rainfall starts to be calculated again Rainfall and previous rainfall; finally, according to the previous rainfall value and R and the rainfall Rn+1 in this period, the comprehensive rainfall value R* is calculated: R*=R+13.5Rn+1.
该专利文献公开的用于沟床起动型泥石流预测的降雨分割方法，通过降雨强度，降雨间隔时间，确定降雨过程的计算方法，进而计算前期降雨量，是一种间接的方法，即通过降雨的分割，假定降雨条件对后来的激发降雨的影响；但是该方法在降雨停了6小时或12小时后，就不再考虑之前的降雨影响；而实际上降雨停了6小时或12小时，土壤还是会保留一部分水，即前面的降雨还有作用与影响，这样就有可能出现低估前期降雨量的情况，造成漏报，影响泥石流预警准确度。The rainfall segmentation method disclosed in this patent document for the prediction of trench-bed initiated debris flow is an indirect method to determine the calculation method of the rainfall process through the rainfall intensity and rainfall interval time, and then calculate the previous rainfall. Segmentation, assuming the influence of rainfall conditions on the subsequent rainfall; however, this method no longer considers the influence of previous rainfall after the rainfall stops for 6 hours or 12 hours; in fact, the soil is still A part of the water will be retained, that is, the previous rainfall still has effects and influences. In this way, it is possible to underestimate the previous rainfall, resulting in missed reports and affecting the accuracy of debris flow early warning.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明为了克服上述现有技术的缺陷，提供一种基于土壤含水率的沟谷泥石流预警方法，本发明从沟谷泥石流的起动机理出发，充分考虑土壤含水率才是造成降雨超渗产流、汇流、形成山洪及起动泥石流的前提条件，直接采用土壤含水率作为激发泥石流降雨的一个主要前提条件，能够更准确地计算降雨贡献，从而更加精准的预警泥石流。In order to overcome the defects of the above-mentioned prior art, the present invention provides a method for early warning of mud-rock flow in valleys based on soil moisture content. The present invention starts from the starting mechanism of mud-rock flow in valleys and fully considers that the moisture content of soil is the cause of rainfall over-seepage, runoff, confluence, The preconditions for the formation of mountain torrents and the initiation of debris flows directly use soil moisture content as a main prerequisite for triggering debris flow rainfall, which can more accurately calculate the contribution of rainfall and thus more accurately warn of debris flows.
本发明通过下述技术方案实现：The present invention realizes through following technical scheme:
一种基于土壤含水率的沟谷泥石流预警方法，其特征在于，包括以下步骤：A method for early warning of valley debris flow based on soil moisture content, characterized in that it comprises the following steps:
S1、通过谷歌地球或地形图确定潜在泥石流流域的基本参数，包括泥石流流域形成区面积、泥石流流域形成区形状系数、泥石流流域形成区沟长和泥石流流域形成区沟床纵比降；S1. Determine the basic parameters of a potential debris flow basin through Google Earth or topographic maps, including the area of the debris flow basin, the shape coefficient of the debris flow basin, the length of the trench in the debris flow basin, and the vertical gradient of the trench bed in the debris flow basin;
S2、查阅水文手册资料，获得泥石流流域形成区年平均降雨量和泥石流流域形成区降雨10分钟变差系数，实时监测或预报泥石流流域形成区所在位置的前期降雨量和激发前10分钟降雨量；S2. Consult the hydrological manual data, obtain the annual average rainfall of the debris flow basin formation area and the 10-minute variation coefficient of rainfall in the debris flow basin formation area, and monitor or forecast the early rainfall and the 10-minute rainfall before the initiation of the debris flow basin formation area in real time;
S3、现场调查泥石流流域形成区沟道平均宽度和泥石流流域形成区颗粒粒径；S3. On-site investigation of the average width of the channel in the formation area of the debris flow basin and the particle size of the formation area of the debris flow basin;
S4、通过式1计算泥石流流域地形因子T；S4. Calculate the terrain factor T of the debris flow basin by formula 1;
式中：In the formula:
T——泥石流流域地形因子；T—topographic factor of debris flow basin;
F——泥石流流域形成区形状系数；F—shape factor of debris flow basin formation area;
J——泥石流流域形成区沟床纵比降；J——the vertical gradient of the gully bed in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
A——泥石流流域形成区面积；A—area of debris flow basin formation area;
W——泥石流流域形成区沟道平均宽度；W——The average width of the channel in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
L——泥石流流域形成区沟长；L——the length of the ditch in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
S5、通过式2计算泥石流流域地质因子G：S5. Calculate the geological factor G of the debris flow basin by formula 2:
G＝D/D0 式2G＝D/D 0 Formula 2
式中：In the formula:
G——泥石流流域地质因子；G—geological factor of debris flow basin;
D——泥石流流域形成区颗粒粒径，指形成区松散固体物质表面的平均颗粒粒径；D——the particle size of the formation area of the debris flow basin, which refers to the average particle size of the surface of the loose solid matter in the formation area;
D0——粗颗粒粒径，粒径为2mm；D 0 ——coarse particle size, the particle size is 2mm;
S6、通过式3计算诱发泥石流的降雨因子R；S6, calculate the rainfall factor R that induces debris flow by formula 3;
式中：In the formula:
R——诱发泥石流的降雨因子；R——rainfall factor that induces debris flow;
R*——激发降雨指标；R*——inspired rainfall index;
R0——泥石流流域形成区年平均降雨量；R 0 —annual average rainfall in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
CV——泥石流流域形成区降雨10分钟变差系数；C V — 10-minute variation coefficient of rainfall in the formation area of debris flow basin;
K——泥石流发生前的土壤含水率因子，由式4-式6计算；K——soil moisture content factor before debris flow occurs, calculated by formula 4-6;
It——激发前10分钟降雨量；It—the rainfall amount 10 minutes before the excitation;
若土壤为湿润区，则K＝3×10-8×e54.7Sm 式4If the soil is a humid area, then K=3×10 -8 ×e 54.7Sm Formula 4
若土壤为过渡区，则K＝1×10-8×e56.7Sm 式5If the soil is a transition zone, then K=1×10 -8 ×e 56.7Sm Formula 5
若土壤为干旱区，则K＝8×10-18×e163Sm 式6If the soil is in arid area, then K=8×10 -18 ×e 163Sm Formula 6
式中：Sm——土壤含水率；e为基数，e＝2.71828；In the formula: Sm—soil moisture content; e is the base, e=2.71828;
S7、通过式7计算泥石流的预警指标P，判断泥石流的发生；S7, calculate the early warning index P of debris flow by formula 7, and judge the occurrence of debris flow;
式中：In the formula:
P——泥石流的预警指标；P—early warning indicator of debris flow;
R——诱发泥石流的降雨因子；R——rainfall factor that induces debris flow;
T——泥石流流域地形因子；T—topographic factor of debris flow basin;
G——泥石流流域地质因子；G—geological factor of debris flow basin;
当P＜0.052时，泥石流发生的可能性小；When P<0.052, the possibility of debris flow is small;
当0.068＞P≥0.052时，泥石流发生的可能性中等；When 0.068>P≥0.052, the possibility of debris flow is moderate;
当P≥0.068时，泥石流发生的可能性大。When P≥0.068, the possibility of debris flow is high.
所述泥石流流域形成区具体是指泥石流流通通过区域和泥石流堆积扇以上区域。The formation area of the debris flow basin specifically refers to the area through which the debris flow passes and the area above the accumulation fan of the debris flow.
所述泥石流流域形成区有主沟及至少一条支沟时，以最大的P值为判断指标判断泥石流发生的可能性。When there is a main ditch and at least one branch ditch in the formation area of the debris flow basin, the possibility of occurrence of the debris flow is judged by the maximum P value as a judgment index.
所述支沟为多条时，当有几条支沟在泥石流流域形成区内时，则支沟流域为支沟形成区。When there are multiple tributary ditches, if several tributary ditches are in the formation area of the debris flow basin, then the tributary ditches basin is the tributary formation area.
所述步骤S6中，土壤含水率Sm通过对土壤表面以下20cm深度处的含水率进行实测获取。In the step S6, the soil moisture content Sm is obtained by actually measuring the moisture content at a depth of 20 cm below the soil surface.
本发明的基本原理如下：Basic principle of the present invention is as follows:
泥石流的形成是由于降雨引起的山洪冲刷泥石流形成区的松散固体物质，起动这些固体物质形成的。如果发生的可能太小，如P＜0.052，则降雨引起的山洪的携沙能力不足，起动形成区沟道内固体物质困难，发生的可能性小；反之，发生的可能性大。造成泥石流发生的可能太小的原因包括三方面：The formation of mud-rock flow is due to the mountain torrents caused by rainfall scouring the loose solid materials in the mud-rock flow formation area and mobilizing these solid materials. If the possibility of occurrence is too small, such as P<0.052, the torrents caused by rainfall have insufficient sand-carrying capacity, and the solid matter in the ditch in the start-up formation area is difficult, so the possibility of occurrence is small; otherwise, the possibility of occurrence is high. There are three reasons why the debris flow may be too small:
一是泥石流流域地形因子太小：泥石流流域形成区面积太小，则汇水太少，不能形成大流量的山洪，起动固体物质比较困难；泥石流流域形成区沟床纵比降太小，起动固体物质很困难；泥石流流域形成区形状系数太小，不能汇流形成更大流量的山洪，起动固体物质也很困难；泥石流流域形成区沟道平均宽度太大，分散了山洪在形成区的水流，使携沙能力下降，形成泥石流条件较高。One is that the terrain factor of the debris flow basin is too small: if the formation area of the debris flow basin is too small, the water catchment will be too small to form a large-flow torrent, and it is difficult to start solid matter; The material is very difficult; the shape coefficient of the formation area of the debris flow basin is too small to confluence to form a flash flood with a larger flow rate, and it is also difficult to start solid matter; the average width of the channel in the formation area of the debris flow basin is too large, which disperses the water flow of the flash flood in the formation area, making The sand-carrying capacity decreases, and the conditions for debris flow formation are relatively high.
二是泥石流流域地质因子太大，泥石流流域形成区颗粒粒径太大，山洪起动固体物质困难。Second, the geological factors of the debris flow basin are too large, the particle size in the formation area of the debris flow basin is too large, and it is difficult for mountain torrents to mobilize solid matter.
三是诱发泥石流的降雨因子太小：土壤含水率太小，土壤渗透系数太大，产生超渗产流需要的降雨强度太大，形成降雨产流所需要的降雨强度较大，不能产生较大的降雨产流，也不能形成较大流量的山洪，难以起动沟床松散固体物源；激发前10分钟降雨量太小，形成的降雨产流太小，形成的山洪流量太小，很难起动沟床松散固体物源。The third is that the rainfall factor that induces debris flow is too small: the soil moisture content is too small, the soil permeability coefficient is too large, the rainfall intensity required to produce super-seepage runoff is too large, and the rainfall intensity required to form rainfall runoff is relatively large, so it cannot produce large It is difficult to start the loose solid source in the ditch bed; the rainfall 10 minutes before the excitation is too small, the resulting rainfall runoff is too small, and the formed torrent flow is too small, so it is difficult to start Source of loose solids in trench beds.
本发明的有益效果主要表现在以下方面：The beneficial effects of the present invention are mainly manifested in the following aspects:
1、本发明，从沟谷泥石流的起动机理出发，充分考虑土壤含水率才是造成降雨超渗产流、汇流、形成山洪及起动泥石流的前提条件，直接采用土壤含水率作为激发泥石流降雨的一个主要前提条件，能够更准确地计算降雨贡献，从而更加精准的预警泥石流。1. The present invention starts from the starting mechanism of the mud-rock flow in the gully, fully considers that the soil moisture content is the precondition for causing rainfall super-seepage runoff, confluence, formation of mountain torrents and starting mud-rock flow, and directly adopts the soil moisture content as a main factor for stimulating the rainfall of the mud-rock flow. The prerequisite is that the rainfall contribution can be calculated more accurately, so that the early warning of debris flow can be more accurate.
2、本发明，通过研究泥石流需要的山洪以及坡面汇流，用直接的土壤含水率代替间接的降雨日衰减法和降雨分割方法，提出了定量的沟谷泥石流发生的可能性计算方法和指标。2. In the present invention, by studying the mountain torrents and slope confluence required by debris flows, the direct soil moisture content is used to replace the indirect rainfall daily attenuation method and rainfall segmentation method, and a quantitative method and index for calculating the possibility of debris flows in valleys are proposed.
3、本发明，通过研究泥石流的发生的可能性判断指标对泥石流形成的影响，提出了泥石流发生的可能性计算方法与临界值，使泥石流的预警更准确。3. The present invention proposes a calculation method and critical value for the possibility of debris flow by studying the influence of the debris flow possibility judgment index on the formation of debris flow, so as to make the early warning of debris flow more accurate.
4、本发明，通过土壤含水率及泥石流发生前的土壤含水率因子的计算，结合泥石流的激发降雨量，能够更好地判断超渗产流、汇流、山洪及泥石流的发生，给出了精细的计算指标，使泥石流的预警更准确。4. The present invention, through the calculation of the soil moisture content and the soil moisture factor before the debris flow, combined with the rainfall induced by the debris flow, can better judge the occurrence of super-seepage runoff, confluence, mountain torrent and debris flow, and gives a detailed The calculated index makes the early warning of debris flow more accurate.
5、本发明，针对泥石流的激发降雨前的土壤含水率进行研究，并做出定量的降雨参数准确计算，并有机结合泥石流流域形成区面积、泥石流流域形成区形状系数、泥石流流域形成区沟长、泥石流流域形成区沟床纵比降、泥石流流域形成区沟道平均宽度、泥石流流域形成区颗粒粒径、泥石流流域形成区年平均降雨量、泥石流流域形成区降雨10分钟变差系数和激发前10分钟降雨量这些影响因素，使得泥石流预警准确度得到极大提高。5. The present invention studies the moisture content of the soil before the rainfall triggered by the debris flow, and makes accurate calculation of the quantitative rainfall parameters, and organically combines the area of the debris flow basin formation, the shape coefficient of the debris flow basin formation area, and the ditch length of the debris flow basin formation area , the vertical gradient of the gully bed in the formation area of the debris flow basin, the average width of the channel in the formation area of the debris flow basin, the particle size of the formation area of the debris flow basin, the annual average rainfall in the formation area of the debris flow basin, the 10-minute variation coefficient of rainfall in the formation area of the debris flow basin and the pre-excitation These influencing factors of 10-minute rainfall have greatly improved the accuracy of debris flow early warning.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
实施例1Example 1
一种基于土壤含水率的沟谷泥石流预警方法，包括以下步骤：A method for early warning of valley debris flow based on soil moisture content, comprising the following steps:
S1、通过谷歌地球或地形图确定潜在泥石流流域的基本参数，包括泥石流流域形成区面积、泥石流流域形成区形状系数、泥石流流域形成区沟长和泥石流流域形成区沟床纵比降；S1. Determine the basic parameters of a potential debris flow basin through Google Earth or topographic maps, including the area of the debris flow basin, the shape coefficient of the debris flow basin, the length of the trench in the debris flow basin, and the vertical gradient of the trench bed in the debris flow basin;
S2、查阅水文手册资料，获得泥石流流域形成区年平均降雨量和泥石流流域形成区降雨10分钟变差系数，实时监测或预报泥石流流域形成区所在位置的前期降雨量和激发前10分钟降雨量；S2. Consult the hydrological manual data, obtain the annual average rainfall of the debris flow basin formation area and the 10-minute variation coefficient of rainfall in the debris flow basin formation area, and monitor or forecast the early rainfall and the 10-minute rainfall before the initiation of the debris flow basin formation area in real time;
S3、现场调查泥石流流域形成区沟道平均宽度和泥石流流域形成区颗粒粒径；S3. On-site investigation of the average width of the channel in the formation area of the debris flow basin and the particle size of the formation area of the debris flow basin;
S4、通过式1计算泥石流流域地形因子T；S4. Calculate the terrain factor T of the debris flow basin by formula 1;
式中：In the formula:
T——泥石流流域地形因子；T—topographic factor of debris flow basin;
F——泥石流流域形成区形状系数；F—shape factor of debris flow basin formation area;
J——泥石流流域形成区沟床纵比降；J——the vertical gradient of the gully bed in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
A——泥石流流域形成区面积；A—area of debris flow basin formation area;
W——泥石流流域形成区沟道平均宽度；W——The average width of the channel in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
L——泥石流流域形成区沟长；L——the length of the ditch in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
S5、通过式2计算泥石流流域地质因子G：S5. Calculate the geological factor G of the debris flow basin by formula 2:
G＝D/D0 式2G＝D/D 0 Formula 2
式中：In the formula:
G——泥石流流域地质因子；G—geological factor of debris flow basin;
D——泥石流流域形成区颗粒粒径，指形成区松散固体物质表面的平均颗粒粒径；D——the particle size of the formation area of the debris flow basin, which refers to the average particle size of the surface of the loose solid matter in the formation area;
D0——粗颗粒粒径，粒径为2mm；D 0 ——coarse particle size, the particle size is 2mm;
S6、通过式3计算诱发泥石流的降雨因子R；S6, calculate the rainfall factor R that induces debris flow by formula 3;
式中：In the formula:
R——诱发泥石流的降雨因子；R——rainfall factor that induces debris flow;
R*——激发降雨指标；R*——inspired rainfall index;
R0——泥石流流域形成区年平均降雨量；R 0 —annual average rainfall in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
CV——泥石流流域形成区降雨10分钟变差系数；C V — 10-minute variation coefficient of rainfall in the formation area of debris flow basin;
K——泥石流发生前的土壤含水率因子，由式4-式6计算；K——soil moisture content factor before debris flow occurs, calculated by formula 4-6;
It——激发前10分钟降雨量；It—the rainfall amount 10 minutes before the excitation;
若土壤为湿润区，则K＝3×10-8×e54.7Sm 式4If the soil is a humid area, then K=3×10 -8 ×e 54.7Sm Formula 4
若土壤为过渡区，则K＝1×10-8×e56.7Sm 式5If the soil is a transition zone, then K=1×10 -8 ×e 56.7Sm Formula 5
若土壤为干旱区，则K＝8×10-18×e163Sm 式6If the soil is in arid area, then K=8×10 -18 ×e 163Sm Formula 6
式中：Sm——土壤含水率；e为基数，e＝2.71828；In the formula: Sm—soil moisture content; e is the base, e=2.71828;
S7、通过式7计算泥石流的预警指标P，判断泥石流的发生；S7, calculate the early warning index P of debris flow by formula 7, and judge the occurrence of debris flow;
式中：In the formula:
P——泥石流的预警指标；P—early warning indicator of debris flow;
R——诱发泥石流的降雨因子；R——rainfall factor that induces debris flow;
T——泥石流流域地形因子；T—topographic factor of debris flow basin;
G——泥石流流域地质因子；G—geological factor of debris flow basin;
当P＜0.052时，泥石流发生的可能性小；When P<0.052, the possibility of debris flow is small;
当0.068＞P≥0.052时，泥石流发生的可能性中等；When 0.068>P≥0.052, the possibility of debris flow is moderate;
当P≥0.068时，泥石流发生的可能性大。When P≥0.068, the possibility of debris flow is high.
从沟谷泥石流的起动机理出发，充分考虑土壤含水率才是造成降雨超渗产流、汇流、形成山洪及起动泥石流的前提条件，直接采用土壤含水率作为激发泥石流降雨的一个主要前提条件，能够更准确地计算降雨贡献，从而更加精准的预警泥石流。Starting from the initiation mechanism of valley debris flow, fully considering the soil moisture content is the precondition for rainfall overseepage, runoff confluence, mountain torrent formation, and debris flow initiation. Soil moisture content is directly used as a main prerequisite for initiating debris flow rainfall, which can be more effective. Accurately calculate the rainfall contribution, so as to more accurately warn the debris flow.
实施例2Example 2
一种基于土壤含水率的沟谷泥石流预警方法，包括以下步骤：A method for early warning of valley debris flow based on soil moisture content, comprising the following steps:
S 1、通过谷歌地球或地形图确定潜在泥石流流域的基本参数，包括泥石流流域形成区面积、泥石流流域形成区形状系数、泥石流流域形成区沟长和泥石流流域形成区沟床纵比降；S 1. Determine the basic parameters of a potential debris flow basin through Google Earth or topographic maps, including the area of the debris flow basin, the shape coefficient of the debris flow basin, the length of the trench in the debris flow basin, and the vertical gradient of the trench bed in the debris flow formation area;
S2、查阅水文手册资料，获得泥石流流域形成区年平均降雨量和泥石流流域形成区降雨10分钟变差系数，实时监测或预报泥石流流域形成区所在位置的前期降雨量和激发前10分钟降雨量；S2. Consult the hydrological manual data, obtain the annual average rainfall of the debris flow basin formation area and the 10-minute variation coefficient of rainfall in the debris flow basin formation area, and monitor or forecast the early rainfall and the 10-minute rainfall before the initiation of the debris flow basin formation area in real time;
S3、现场调查泥石流流域形成区沟道平均宽度和泥石流流域形成区颗粒粒径；S3. On-site investigation of the average width of the channel in the formation area of the debris flow basin and the particle size of the formation area of the debris flow basin;
S4、通过式1计算泥石流流域地形因子T；S4. Calculate the terrain factor T of the debris flow basin by formula 1;
式中：In the formula:
T——泥石流流域地形因子；T—topographic factor of debris flow basin;
F——泥石流流域形成区形状系数；F—shape factor of debris flow basin formation area;
J——泥石流流域形成区沟床纵比降；J——the vertical gradient of the gully bed in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
A——泥石流流域形成区面积；A—area of debris flow basin formation area;
W——泥石流流域形成区沟道平均宽度；W——The average width of the channel in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
L——泥石流流域形成区沟长；L——the length of the ditch in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
S5、通过式2计算泥石流流域地质因子G：S5. Calculate the geological factor G of the debris flow basin by formula 2:
G＝D/D0 式2G＝D/D 0 Formula 2
式中：In the formula:
G——泥石流流域地质因子；G—geological factor of debris flow basin;
D——泥石流流域形成区颗粒粒径，指形成区松散固体物质表面的平均颗粒粒径；D——the particle size of the formation area of the debris flow basin, which refers to the average particle size of the surface of the loose solid matter in the formation area;
D0——粗颗粒粒径，粒径为2mm；D 0 ——coarse particle size, the particle size is 2mm;
S6、通过式3计算诱发泥石流的降雨因子R；S6, calculate the rainfall factor R that induces debris flow by formula 3;
式中：In the formula:
R——诱发泥石流的降雨因子；R——rainfall factor that induces debris flow;
R*——激发降雨指标；R*——inspired rainfall index;
R0——泥石流流域形成区年平均降雨量；R 0 —annual average rainfall in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
CV——泥石流流域形成区降雨10分钟变差系数；C V — 10-minute variation coefficient of rainfall in the formation area of debris flow basin;
K——泥石流发生前的土壤含水率因子，由式4-式6计算；K——soil moisture content factor before debris flow occurs, calculated by formula 4-6;
It——激发前10分钟降雨量；It—the rainfall amount 10 minutes before the excitation;
若土壤为湿润区，则K＝3×10-8×e54.7Sm 式4If the soil is a humid area, then K=3×10 -8 ×e 54.7Sm Formula 4
若土壤为过渡区，则K＝1×10-8×e56.7Sm 式5If the soil is a transition zone, then K=1×10 -8 ×e 56.7Sm Formula 5
若土壤为干旱区，则K＝8×10-18×e163Sm 式6If the soil is in arid area, then K=8×10 -18 ×e 163Sm Formula 6
式中：Sm——土壤含水率；e为基数，e＝2.71828；In the formula: Sm—soil moisture content; e is the base, e=2.71828;
S7、通过式7计算泥石流的预警指标P，判断泥石流的发生；S7, calculate the early warning index P of debris flow by formula 7, and judge the occurrence of debris flow;
式中：In the formula:
P——泥石流的预警指标；P—early warning indicator of debris flow;
R——诱发泥石流的降雨因子；R——rainfall factor that induces debris flow;
T——泥石流流域地形因子；T—topographic factor of debris flow basin;
G——泥石流流域地质因子；G—geological factor of debris flow basin;
当P＜0.052时，泥石流发生的可能性小；When P<0.052, the possibility of debris flow is small;
当0.068＞P≥0.052时，泥石流发生的可能性中等；When 0.068>P≥0.052, the possibility of debris flow is moderate;
当P≥0.068时，泥石流发生的可能性大。When P≥0.068, the possibility of debris flow is high.
所述泥石流流域形成区具体是指泥石流流通通过区域和泥石流堆积扇以上区域。The formation area of the debris flow basin specifically refers to the area through which the debris flow passes and the area above the accumulation fan of the debris flow.
所述泥石流流域形成区有主沟及至少一条支沟时，以最大的P值为判断指标判断泥石流发生的可能性。When there is a main ditch and at least one branch ditch in the formation area of the debris flow basin, the possibility of occurrence of the debris flow is judged by the maximum P value as a judgment index.
通过研究泥石流需要的山洪以及坡面汇流，用直接的土壤含水率代替间接的降雨日衰减法和降雨分割方法，提出了定量的沟谷泥石流发生的可能性计算方法和指标。By studying the mountain torrents and slope confluence required by debris flows, the direct soil moisture content is used to replace the indirect rainfall attenuation method and rainfall segmentation method, and a quantitative calculation method and index for the possibility of debris flows in valleys are proposed.
实施例3Example 3
一种基于土壤含水率的沟谷泥石流预警方法，包括以下步骤：A method for early warning of valley debris flow based on soil moisture content, comprising the following steps:
S 1、通过谷歌地球或地形图确定潜在泥石流流域的基本参数，包括泥石流流域形成区面积、泥石流流域形成区形状系数、泥石流流域形成区沟长和泥石流流域形成区沟床纵比降；S 1. Determine the basic parameters of the potential debris flow basin through Google Earth or topographic maps, including the area of the debris flow basin, the shape coefficient of the debris flow basin formation area, the trench length of the debris flow basin formation area, and the vertical gradient of the trench bed in the debris flow basin formation area;
S2、查阅水文手册资料，获得泥石流流域形成区年平均降雨量和泥石流流域形成区降雨10分钟变差系数，实时监测或预报泥石流流域形成区所在位置的前期降雨量和激发前10分钟降雨量；S2. Consult the hydrological manual data, obtain the annual average rainfall of the debris flow basin formation area and the 10-minute variation coefficient of rainfall in the debris flow basin formation area, and monitor or forecast the early rainfall and the 10-minute rainfall before the initiation of the debris flow basin formation area in real time;
S3、现场调查泥石流流域形成区沟道平均宽度和泥石流流域形成区颗粒粒径；S3. On-site investigation of the average width of the channel in the formation area of the debris flow basin and the particle size of the formation area of the debris flow basin;
S4、通过式1计算泥石流流域地形因子T；S4. Calculate the terrain factor T of the debris flow basin by formula 1;
式中：In the formula:
T——泥石流流域地形因子；T—topographic factor of debris flow basin;
F——泥石流流域形成区形状系数；F—shape factor of debris flow basin formation area;
J——泥石流流域形成区沟床纵比降；J——the vertical gradient of the gully bed in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
A——泥石流流域形成区面积；A—area of debris flow basin formation area;
W——泥石流流域形成区沟道平均宽度；W——The average width of the channel in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
L——泥石流流域形成区沟长；L——the length of the ditch in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
S5、通过式2计算泥石流流域地质因子G：S5. Calculate the geological factor G of the debris flow basin by formula 2:
G＝D/D0 式2G＝D/D 0 Formula 2
式中：In the formula:
G——泥石流流域地质因子；G—geological factor of debris flow basin;
D——泥石流流域形成区颗粒粒径，指形成区松散固体物质表面的平均颗粒粒径；D——the particle size of the formation area of the debris flow basin, which refers to the average particle size of the surface of the loose solid matter in the formation area;
D0——粗颗粒粒径，粒径为2mm；D 0 ——coarse particle size, the particle size is 2mm;
S6、通过式3计算诱发泥石流的降雨因子R；S6, calculate the rainfall factor R that induces debris flow by formula 3;
式中：In the formula:
R——诱发泥石流的降雨因子；R——rainfall factor that induces debris flow;
R*——激发降雨指标；R*——inspired rainfall index;
R0——泥石流流域形成区年平均降雨量；R 0 —annual average rainfall in the formation area of the debris flow basin;
CV——泥石流流域形成区降雨10分钟变差系数；C V — 10-minute variation coefficient of rainfall in the formation area of debris flow basin;
K——泥石流发生前的土壤含水率因子，由式4-式6计算；K——soil moisture content factor before debris flow occurs, calculated by formula 4-6;
It——激发前10分钟降雨量；It—the rainfall amount 10 minutes before the excitation;
若土壤为湿润区，则K＝3×10-8×e54.7Sm 式4If the soil is a humid area, then K=3×10 -8 ×e 54.7Sm Formula 4
若土壤为过渡区，则K＝1×10-8×e56.7Sm 式5If the soil is a transition zone, then K=1×10 -8 ×e 56.7Sm Formula 5
若土壤为干旱区，则K＝8×10-18×e163Sm 式6If the soil is in arid area, then K=8×10 -18 ×e 163Sm Formula 6
式中：Sm——土壤含水率；e为基数，e＝2.71828；In the formula: Sm—soil moisture content; e is the base, e=2.71828;
S7、通过式7计算泥石流的预警指标P，判断泥石流的发生；S7, calculate the early warning index P of debris flow by formula 7, and judge the occurrence of debris flow;
式中：In the formula:
P——泥石流的预警指标；P—early warning indicator of debris flow;
R——诱发泥石流的降雨因子；R——rainfall factor that induces debris flow;
T——泥石流流域地形因子；T—topographic factor of debris flow basin;
G——泥石流流域地质因子；G—geological factor of debris flow basin;
当P＜0.052时，泥石流发生的可能性小；When P<0.052, the possibility of debris flow is small;
当0.068＞P≥0.052时，泥石流发生的可能性中等；When 0.068>P≥0.052, the possibility of debris flow is moderate;
当P≥0.068时，泥石流发生的可能性大。When P≥0.068, the possibility of debris flow is high.
所述泥石流流域形成区具体是指泥石流流通通过区域和泥石流堆积扇以上区域。The formation area of the debris flow basin specifically refers to the area through which the debris flow passes and the area above the accumulation fan of the debris flow.
所述泥石流流域形成区有主沟及至少一条支沟时，以最大的P值为判断指标判断泥石流发生的可能性。When there is a main ditch and at least one branch ditch in the formation area of the debris flow basin, the possibility of occurrence of the debris flow is judged by the maximum P value as a judgment index.
所述支沟为多条时，当有几条支沟在泥石流流域形成区内时，则支沟流域为支沟形成区。When there are multiple tributary ditches, if several tributary ditches are in the formation area of the debris flow basin, then the tributary ditches basin is the tributary formation area.
所述步骤S6中，土壤含水率Sm通过对土壤表面以下20cm深度处的含水率进行实测获取。In the step S6, the soil moisture content Sm is obtained by actually measuring the moisture content at a depth of 20 cm below the soil surface.
通过研究泥石流的发生的可能性判断指标对泥石流形成的影响，提出了泥石流发生的可能性计算方法与临界值，使泥石流的预警更准确。By studying the influence of the judgment index of the possibility of debris flow on the formation of debris flow, the calculation method and critical value of the possibility of debris flow are proposed to make the early warning of debris flow more accurate.
通过土壤含水率及泥石流发生前的土壤含水率因子的计算，结合泥石流的激发降雨量，能够更好地判断超渗产流、汇流、山洪及泥石流的发生，给出了精细的计算指标，使泥石流的预警更准确。Through the calculation of the soil moisture content and the soil moisture factor before the debris flow, combined with the rainfall induced by the debris flow, it is possible to better judge the occurrence of super-seepage runoff, confluence, mountain torrent and debris flow, and give a fine calculation index, so that The early warning of mudslides is more accurate.
针对泥石流的激发降雨前的土壤含水率进行研究，并做出定量的降雨参数准确计算，并有机结合泥石流流域形成区面积、泥石流流域形成区形状系数、泥石流流域形成区沟长、泥石流流域形成区沟床纵比降、泥石流流域形成区沟道平均宽度、泥石流流域形成区颗粒粒径、泥石流流域形成区年平均降雨量、泥石流流域形成区降雨10分钟变差系数和激发前10分钟降雨量这些影响因素，使得泥石流预警准确度得到极大提高。Research on the soil moisture content before the rainfall triggered by debris flow, and make accurate calculation of quantitative rainfall parameters, and organically combine the area of debris flow basin formation, the shape coefficient of debris flow basin formation area, the length of the trench formation area of debris flow basin, and the formation area of debris flow basin The vertical slope of the gully bed, the average width of the channel in the formation area of the debris flow basin, the particle size of the formation area of the debris flow basin, the annual average rainfall in the formation area of the debris flow basin, the 10-minute variation coefficient of rainfall in the formation area of the debris flow basin, and the rainfall in the 10 minutes before the triggering, etc. Influencing factors have greatly improved the accuracy of debris flow early warning.
下面结合具体实列对本发明预警方法进行详细说明。The early warning method of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with specific examples.
2011年6月5日晚到6日凌晨，受高空风切变和冷空气影响，望谟县境内中部以北大部分区域出现短历时强降雨，部分地区出现特大暴雨。该区域暴雨中心从打易镇向南逐渐发展，且降雨强度由南至北逐渐降低。这次降雨大致从6月5日晚22时开始，至次日8-9时结束，整个持续过程时间短，降雨强度大，最大小时降雨高达105.9mm，累计总雨量达315mm，为望谟县历史上百年不遇的特大暴雨。本次降雨诱发群发泥石流，打易至新屯段共发生泥石流25个。From the evening of June 5 to the early morning of June 6, 2011, affected by high-altitude wind shear and cold air, short-duration heavy rainfall occurred in most areas north of the central part of Wangmo County, and some areas experienced heavy rainstorms. The rainstorm center in this region gradually develops from Dayi Town to the south, and the rainfall intensity gradually decreases from south to north. The rainfall started roughly at 22:00 on the evening of June 5 and ended at 8-9:00 the next day. The entire duration was short and the rainfall intensity was high. The maximum hourly rainfall was as high as 105.9mm, and the cumulative total rainfall reached 315mm. The most severe torrential rain in history. This rainfall induced mass mudslides, and a total of 25 mudslides occurred in the section from Dayi to Xintun.
采用本发明对上述25个泥石流进行预警，25个泥石流的参数及泥石流的预警指标P以及泥石流的实际发生情况如表1所示。Using the present invention to carry out early warning for the above 25 debris flows, the parameters of the 25 debris flows, the early warning index P of the debris flows and the actual occurrence of the debris flows are shown in Table 1.
表1Table 1
根据泥石流的预警指标P，当P＜0.052时，泥石流发生的可能性小；当0.068＞P≥0.052时，泥石流发生的可能性中等；当P≥0.068时，泥石流发生的可能性大。According to the early warning index P of debris flow, when P<0.052, the possibility of debris flow is low; when 0.068>P≥0.052, the possibility of debris flow is medium; when P≥0.068, the possibility of debris flow is high.
表1中实际发生泥石流流域25个，其中22个由本发明判断为泥石流发生可能性大，3个由本发明判断为泥石流发生中等。In Table 1, there are 25 river basins where debris flow actually occurs, 22 of which are judged by the present invention to have a high possibility of debris flow, and 3 are judged by the present invention to be moderate in occurrence of debris flow.
因此，应用本发明预警方法对泥石流的预警的准确性很高。Therefore, the accuracy of early warning of mud-rock flow by applying the early warning method of the present invention is very high.
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