CN109523071A - Saury resource abundance medium- and long-term forecasting method based on Pacific Ocean Oscillation Index - Google Patents
Saury resource abundance medium- and long-term forecasting method based on Pacific Ocean Oscillation Index Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The saury resource abundance medium- and long-term forecasting method based on Pacific Ocean Oscillation Index that the invention discloses a kind of comprising following steps: indices P DO value is shaken in the Pacific Ocean monthly in the northwest Pacific sea area of N saury distribution before obtaining；Utilize Time series analysis method, correlation analysis is carried out to the PDO value of saury resource abundance CPUE and preceding N monthly, the moon PDO value of statistically relevant P < 0.05 is obtained, those month PDO value is as the climatic factor for influencing saury resource abundance；P value on multiple saury resource abundance prediction models and counting statistics is established using multiple linear equation；In above-mentioned multiple saury resource abundance prediction models, select statistically the smallest model of P value as optimal models.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to fish resource abundance medium- and long-term forecasting technical fields, are referred to more particularly to one kind based on Pacific Ocean oscillation
Several saury resource abundance medium- and long-term forecasting methods.
Background technique
Saury is the main fished species of world's deep-sea fishing, and important ground is occupied in world's marine capture production
Position, fishery resources are also extremely abundant, and the distribution of operation fishing ground is also boundless, but its commercial development and utilization are mainly distributed on
Northwest Pacific sea area.Saury is a kind of multiple oviposition type fish, and spawning season is very long, continues up to the spring in next year from autumn
In season, the main spawning ground in autumn is in the mixing waters in Kuroshio forward the north, and winter-spring season is then in Kuroshio waters.Saury growth rate
It is very fast.Largest body grows reachable 35~40cm, usually 25~30cm.About start in 1.5 ages to 2 age full maturitys, service life
About 3 years.Mainly in northwest Pacific sea area, spawning ground concentrates on Hokkaido, Japan east sea in the forage fishing ground of saury
Domain, the substantially seasonal migration in north-south.Main fishing state and area be Japan, Russia, South Korea, TaiWan, China and
China's Mainland, wherein South Korea, TaiWan, China and China's Mainland are mainly produced in high sea.According to statistics, after 2008, autumn
Hairtail yield is in a higher level, stablizes between ten thousand tons of 40-63.Wherein be with Japan it is most, annual output is in 14-
Between 350000 tons.Saury resource is extremely sensitive to Marine Environment Factors, and Liu Zhunan and Chen Xinjun (2018) are according to 1990-2014
Catch per unit effort (CPUE, in this, as resource abundance) in the saury fishery of northwest Pacific Japan, and
Hai Biaowen (SST) remotely-sensed data in corresponding spawning ground, feeding ground, the discussion Pacific Ocean year border concussion (PDO) index is cold, warms up during the lunar New Year,
The relationship of saury resource abundance CPUE variation and spawning ground, feeding ground SST, and the prediction model of resource abundance is established respectively.
Xie Bin etc. (2015) according to the catch per unit efforts (CPUE) of 1989-2012 years northwest Pacific saurys and
Corresponding marine environment factor data, Trans-Nino index (TNI), Japan current region in January sea surface including the 1-12 month each moon
Temperature (SST_ (Kuroshio)), Oyashio sea-surface temperature in June (SST_ (Oyashio)), using BP neural network forecasting model, to northwest
Pacific Ocean saury resource abundance carries out forecast analysis, is compared by 10 kinds of neural network models, and the verifying of practical CPUE,
Using the smallest forecasting model of regression criterion as Optimal predictor model.The studies above shows that at present each scholar is to northwest both at home and abroad
The environment such as Pacific Ocean saury spawning ground, feeding ground and its Kuroshio influence its resource magnitude of recruitment and have carried out good research, and build
It has found corresponding Resources Prediction model, but has been then blank how to carry out look-ahead its stock number with climatic factor.
Summary of the invention
The present invention is in view of the problems of the existing technology and insufficient, provides a kind of saury based on Pacific Ocean Oscillation Index
Resource abundance medium- and long-term forecasting method.
The present invention is to solve above-mentioned technical problem by following technical proposals:
The present invention provides a kind of saury resource abundance medium- and long-term forecasting method based on Pacific Ocean Oscillation Index, feature
It is comprising following steps:
Shake indices P DO value in the Pacific Ocean monthly in the northwest Pacific sea area that N saury is distributed before S1, acquisition；
S2, using Time series analysis method, phase is carried out to the PDO value of saury resource abundance CPUE and preceding N monthly
The analysis of closing property obtains the moon PDO value of statistically relevant P < 0.05, those month PDO value is as influence saury resource abundance
Climatic factor；
S3, P value on multiple saury resource abundance prediction models and counting statistics is established using multiple linear equation, it is public
Formula are as follows:
CPUE=a+b1*x1+b2*x2+b3*x3+ ...+bn*xn
In formula, CPUE saury resource abundance, a is constant, b1, b2, b3 ..., the coefficient that bn is equation；x1,x2,
X3 ..., xn be influence resource abundance moon PDO value；
S4, in above-mentioned multiple saury resource abundance prediction models, select statistically the smallest model of P value as optimal
Model.
On the basis of common knowledge of the art, above-mentioned each optimum condition, can any combination to get each preferable reality of the present invention
Example.
The positive effect of the present invention is that:
(1) prediction of northwest Pacific saury resource abundance is carried out using Pacific Ocean concussion indices P DO；
(2) first PDO value (PDO in January, 2 are selectedT-2,1), 6-8 month PDO value (PDOT-2,6, PDOT-2,7, PDOT-2,8), October
PDO value (PDOT-2,10) it is used as the climatic prediction factor；
(3) northwest Pacific saury resource abundance prediction model are as follows: CPUE=3.5144+0.6623*PDOT-2,6+
0.7219*PDOT-2,7, PDOT-2,6、PDOT-2,7Respectively 6-7 month PDO value.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the saury resource abundance medium- and long-term forecasting method based on Pacific Ocean Oscillation Index.
Fig. 2 variation diagram between 2000-2014 northwest Pacific saury resource abundance CPUE.
Fig. 3 is 2000-2014 northwest Pacific saury resource abundance actual value and predicted value change profile figure.
Specific embodiment
In order to make the object, technical scheme and advantages of the embodiment of the invention clearer, below in conjunction with the embodiment of the present invention
In attached drawing, technical scheme in the embodiment of the invention is clearly and completely described, it is clear that described embodiment is
A part of the embodiment of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.Based on the embodiments of the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art
Every other embodiment obtained without making creative work, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
As shown in Figure 1, the present embodiment provides long-term pre- in a kind of saury resource abundance based on Pacific Ocean Oscillation Index
Survey method comprising following steps:
Indices P DO is shaken in step 101, the Pacific Ocean monthly for obtaining the northwest Pacific sea area that preceding N saury is distributed
Value；
Step 102, using Time series analysis method, to saury resource abundance CPUE and the PDO value of preceding N monthly into
Row correlation analysis obtains the moon PDO value of statistically relevant P < 0.05, those month PDO value is as influence saury resource
The climatic factor of abundance；
Step 103 establishes P on multiple saury resource abundance prediction models and counting statistics using multiple linear equation
Value, formula are as follows:
CPUE=a+b1*x1+b2*x2+b3*x3+ ...+bn*xn
In formula, CPUE saury resource abundance, a is constant, b1, b2, b3 ..., the coefficient that bn is equation；x1,x2,
X3 ..., xn be influence resource abundance moon PDO value；
Step 104, in above-mentioned multiple saury resource abundance prediction models, selection statistically P value the smallest model work
For optimal models.
A specific example is named to illustrate the present invention, so that those skilled in the art better understood when this
The technical solution of invention.
1, material and method
(1) data source
Saury is widely distributed in the entire sea area of North Pacific, and key operation fishing ground is distributed in northwest Pacific sea area,
The environmental aspect in its spawning ground and feeding ground be easy by the Pacific Ocean concussion index (Pacific Decadal Oscillation,
PDO influence).The Pacific Ocean concussion index be it is a kind of with 10 annual period dimensional variation Pacific Ocean Climate Change Phenomenon.Transformation week
Phase is usually 20~30 years.The feature of PDO is that region surface seawater temperature anomaly is partially warm or colder to the north of 20 degree of Pacific Ocean north latitude.
Western Pacific is colder during Pacific Decade Oscillation " warm phase " (or " positive phase ") and Eastern Pacific is partially warm, in " cold phase "
Western Pacific is partially warm during (or " minus phase ") and Eastern Pacific is colder.PDO from Washington, DC Universities ' Websites (http: //
Research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt), time period was in January, 1998 to 2017
December (table 1).
Northwest Pacific saury Resources Richness Rate Index CPUE (unit is ton/ship) unit in Japanese saury fishery
Fishing effort catch (CPUE, resource abundance, unit ton/net), time are -2016 years 1994 (table 2).
Shake index monthly returns in table in January, 1 1992 Pacific Ocean in December, -2015
| Time | January | 2 months | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December |
| 1998 | 0.83 | 1.56 | 2.01 | 1.27 | 0.7 | 0.4 | -0.04 | -0.22 | -1.21 | -1.39 | -0.52 | -0.44 |
| 1999 | -0.32 | -0.66 | -0.33 | -0.41 | -0.68 | -1.3 | -0.66 | -0.96 | -1.53 | -2.23 | -2.05 | -1.63 |
| 2000 | -2 | -0.83 | 0.29 | 0.35 | -0.05 | -0.44 | -0.66 | -1.19 | -1.24 | -1.3 | -0.53 | 0.52 |
| 2001 | 0.6 | 0.29 | 0.45 | -0.31 | -0.3 | -0.47 | -1.31 | -0.77 | -1.37 | -1.37 | -1.26 | -0.93 |
| 2002 | 0.27 | -0.64 | -0.43 | -0.32 | -0.63 | -0.35 | -0.31 | 0.6 | 0.43 | 0.42 | 1.51 | 2.1 |
| 2003 | 2.09 | 1.75 | 1.51 | 1.18 | 0.89 | 0.68 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.01 | 0.83 | 0.52 | 0.33 |
| 2004 | 0.43 | 0.48 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.88 | 0.04 | 0.44 | 0.85 | 0.75 | -0.11 | -0.63 | -0.17 |
| 2005 | 0.44 | 0.81 | 1.36 | 1.03 | 1.86 | 1.17 | 0.66 | 0.25 | -0.46 | -1.32 | -1.5 | 0.2 |
| 2006 | 1.03 | 0.66 | 0.05 | 0.4 | 0.48 | 1.04 | 0.35 | -0.65 | -0.94 | -0.05 | -0.22 | 0.14 |
| 2007 | 0.01 | 0.04 | -0.36 | 0.16 | -0.1 | 0.09 | 0.78 | 0.5 | -0.36 | -1.45 | -1.08 | -0.58 |
| 2008 | -1 | -0.77 | -0.71 | -1.52 | -1.37 | -1.34 | -1.67 | -1.7 | -1.55 | -1.76 | -1.25 | -0.87 |
| 2009 | -1.4 | -1.55 | -1.59 | -1.65 | -0.88 | -0.31 | -0.53 | 0.09 | 0.52 | 0.27 | -0.4 | 0.08 |
| 2010 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 0.44 | 0.78 | 0.62 | -0.22 | -1.05 | -1.27 | -1.61 | -1.06 | -0.82 | -1.21 |
| 2011 | -0.92 | -0.83 | -0.69 | -0.42 | -0.37 | -0.69 | -1.86 | -1.74 | -1.79 | -1.34 | -2.33 | -1.79 |
| 2012 | -1.38 | -0.85 | -1.05 | -0.27 | -1.26 | -0.87 | -1.52 | -1.93 | -2.21 | -0.79 | -0.59 | -0.48 |
| 2013 | -0.13 | -0.43 | -0.63 | -0.16 | 0.08 | -0.78 | -1.25 | -1.04 | -0.48 | -0.87 | -0.11 | -0.41 |
| 2014 | 0.3 | 0.38 | 0.97 | 1.13 | 1.8 | 0.82 | 0.7 | 0.67 | 1.08 | 1.49 | 1.72 | 2.51 |
| 2015 | 2.45 | 2.3 | 2 | 1.44 | 1.2 | 1.54 | 1.84 | 1.56 | 1.94 | 1.47 | 0.86 | 1.01 |
The Japanese saury fishery resources abundance index (CPUE) of 2 2000-2014 of table
(2) research method and step
Using Time series analysis method, correlation point is carried out to CPUE value and the PDO value of the 1998-2014 1-12 month
Analysis obtains statistically relevant moon PDO value (statistically P < 0.05), the PDO value of these months is as the influence northwest Pacific autumn
The climatic factor of hairtail resource abundance.
Multiple northwest Pacific saury resource abundance prediction models, formula are established using multiple linear equation are as follows:
CPUE=a+b1*x1+b2*x2+b3*x3+ ...+bn*xn.In formula, CPUE is resource abundance, and a is constant, b1, b2,
B3 ..., bn be equation coefficient；X1, x2, x3 ..., xn be influence resource abundance moon PDO value.In above-mentioned multiple autumn knives
In fish resource abundance prediction model, select statistically the smallest model of P value as optimal models.
2, result of study
(1) resource abundance CPUE changes between year
As shown in Figure 2, northwest Pacific saury resource abundance CPUE changes between significant year is presented, 2000-2002,
It is horizontal that 2010-2013 is in low stock number；And 2005-2009 is then in high stock number level.
(2) the PDO value of resource abundance CPUE is influenced
Resource abundance CPUE and the correlation analysis of the PDO value of preceding 2 years each moons think, resource abundance CPUE with first 2 years
January, the 6-8 month, October PDO value correlation it is significant, and present be positively correlated, related coefficient be respectively 0.5759 (P < 0.05),
0.6974 (P < 0.01), 0.7208 (P < 0.01), 0.5602 (P < 0.05), 0.5885 (P < 0.05).
(3) model of resource abundance prediction is established
1) one of prediction model
In the past PDO value (PDO in January, 2T-2,1), 6-8 month PDO value (PDOT-2,6, PDOT-2,7, PDOT-2,8), PDO value in October
(PDOT-2,10) it is used as predictive factor, establish northwest Pacific saury resource abundance prediction model are as follows:
CPUE=3.9722+0.2807*PDOT-2,1-0.1039*PDOT-2,6+1.6397*PDOT-2,7-1.0637*PDOT-2,8
+0.8323*PDOT-2,10
Its F value is 4.8428 (P=0.0200 < 0.05).
The statistical form of its actual value and predicted value such as table 3.
3 northwest Pacific saury resource abundance actual value of table and predicted value and its residual error
2) the two of prediction model
In the past PDO value (PDO in January, 2T-2,1), 6-8 month PDO value (PDOT-2,6, PDOT-2,7, PDOT-2,8) as prediction because
Son establishes northwest Pacific saury resource abundance prediction model are as follows:
CPUE=3.4430+0.2512*PDOT-2,1+0.4002*PDOT-2,6+1.0017*PDOT-2,7-0.3191*PDOT-2,8
Its F value is 3.5350 (P=0.0479 < 0.05).
The statistical form of its actual value and predicted value such as table 4.
4 northwest Pacific saury resource abundance actual value of table and predicted value and its residual error
3) the three of prediction model
2 years in the past 6-8 months PDO value (PDOT-2,6, PDOT-2,7, PDOT-2,8), PDO value (PDO in OctoberT-2,10) as prediction
The factor establishes northwest Pacific saury resource abundance prediction model are as follows:
CPUE=4.0254+0.1276*PDOT-2,6+1.5890*PDOT-2,7-0.9465*PDOT-2,8+0.8176*
PDOT-2,10
Its F value is 5.9755 (P=0.0101 < 0.05).
The statistical form of its actual value and predicted value such as table 5.
5 northwest Pacific saury resource abundance actual value of table and predicted value and its residual error
4) the four of prediction model
2 years in the past 6-8 months PDO value (PDOT-2,6, PDOT-2,7, PDOT-2,8) it is used as predictive factor, establish northwest Pacific
Saury resource abundance prediction model are as follows:
CPUE=3.4990+0.5998*PDOT-2,6+0.9664*PDOT-2,7-0.2259*PDOT-2,8
Its F value is 4.7917 (P=0.0226 < 0.05).
The statistical form of its actual value and predicted value such as table 6.
6 northwest Pacific saury resource abundance actual value of table and predicted value and its residual error
5) the five of prediction model
2 years in the past 6-7 months PDO value (PDOT-2,6, PDOT-2,7) it is used as predictive factor, establish northwest Pacific saury
Resource abundance prediction model are as follows:
CPUE=3.5144+0.6623*PDOT-2,6+0.7219*PDOT-2,7
Its F value is 7.6761 (P=0.0071 < 0.01).
The statistical form of its actual value and predicted value such as table 7.
7 northwest Pacific saury resource abundance actual value of table and predicted value and its residual error
By above-mentioned five model comparative analysis, it can be concluded that, this research selects preceding 2 years 6-7 month PDO value (PDOT-2,6,
PDOT-2,7) it is used as predictive factor, establish northwest Pacific saury resource abundance prediction model are as follows: CPUE=3.5144+
0.6623*PDOT-2,6+0.7219*PDOT-2,7.The resource abundance variation tendency of its actual value and predicted value is as shown in Figure 3.
Although specific embodiments of the present invention have been described above, it will be appreciated by those of skill in the art that these
It is merely illustrative of, protection scope of the present invention is defined by the appended claims.Those skilled in the art is not carrying on the back
Under the premise of from the principle and substance of the present invention, many changes and modifications may be made, but these are changed
Protection scope of the present invention is each fallen with modification.
Claims (4)
1. a kind of saury resource abundance medium- and long-term forecasting method based on Pacific Ocean Oscillation Index, which is characterized in that it includes
Following steps:
Shake indices P DO value in the Pacific Ocean monthly in the northwest Pacific sea area that N saury is distributed before S1, acquisition；
S2, using Time series analysis method, correlation is carried out to the PDO value of saury resource abundance CPUE and preceding N monthly
Analysis obtains the moon PDO value of statistically relevant P < 0.05, those month PDO value is as the gas for influencing saury resource abundance
Wait the factor；
S3, P value on multiple saury resource abundance prediction models and counting statistics, formula are established using multiple linear equation
Are as follows:
CPUE=a+b1*x1+b2*x2+b3*x3+ ...+bn*xn
In formula, CPUE saury resource abundance, a is constant, b1, b2, b3 ..., the coefficient that bn is equation；x1,x2,
X3 ..., xn be influence resource abundance moon PDO value；
S4, in above-mentioned multiple saury resource abundance prediction models, select statistically the smallest model of P value as optimal mould
Type.
2. saury resource abundance medium- and long-term forecasting method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that in step s 2, root
According to the correlation analysis of saury resource abundance CPUE and the PDO value of preceding 2 years each moons, saury resource abundance CPUE with first 2 years
January, the 6-8 month, October PDO value correlation it is significant, and present be positively correlated, related coefficient be respectively 0.5759 (P < 0.05),
0.6974 (P < 0.01), 0.7208 (P < 0.01), 0.5602 (P < 0.05), 0.5885 (P < 0.05).
3. saury resource abundance medium- and long-term forecasting method as claimed in claim 2, which is characterized in that in step s3,
1) one of prediction model
In the past PDO value (PDO in January, 2T-2,1), 6-8 month PDO value (PDOT-2,6, PDOT-2,7, PDOT-2,8), PDO value in October
(PDOT-2,10) it is used as predictive factor, establish northwest Pacific saury resource abundance prediction model are as follows:
CPUE=3.9722+0.2807*PDOT-2,1-0.1039*PDOT-2,6+1.6397*PDOT-2,7-1.0637*PDOT-2,8+
0.8323*PDOT-2,10
Its F value is 4.8428, P=0.0200 < 0.05；
2) the two of prediction model
In the past PDO value (PDO in January, 2T-2,1), 6-8 month PDO value (PDOT-2,6, PDOT-2,7, PDOT-2,8) it is used as predictive factor,
Establish northwest Pacific saury resource abundance prediction model are as follows:
CPUE=3.4430+0.2512*PDOT-2,1+0.4002*PDOT-2,6+1.0017*PDOT-2,7-0.3191*PDOT-2,8
Its F value is 3.5350, P=0.0479 < 0.05；
3) the three of prediction model
2 years in the past 6-8 months PDO value (PDOT-2,6, PDOT-2,7, PDOT-2,8), PDO value (PDO in OctoberT-2,10) as prediction because
Son establishes northwest Pacific saury resource abundance prediction model are as follows:
CPUE=4.0254+0.1276*PDOT-2,6+1.5890*PDOT-2,7-0.9465*PDOT-2,8+0.8176*PDOT-2,10
Its F value is 5.9755, P=0.0101 < 0.05；
4) the four of prediction model
2 years in the past 6-8 months PDO value (PDOT-2,6, PDOT-2,7, PDOT-2,8) it is used as predictive factor, establish northwest Pacific autumn knife
Fish resource abundance prediction model are as follows:
CPUE=3.4990+0.5998*PDOT-2,6+0.9664*PDOT-2,7-0.2259*PDOT-2,8
Its F value is 4.7917, P=0.0226 < 0.05；
5) the five of prediction model
2 years in the past 6-7 months PDO value (PDOT-2,6, PDOT-2,7) it is used as predictive factor, it is rich to establish northwest Pacific saury resource
Spend prediction model are as follows:
CPUE=3.5144+0.6623*PDOT-2,6+0.7219*PDOT-2,7
Its F value is 7.6761, P=0.0071 < 0.01.
4. saury resource abundance medium- and long-term forecasting method as claimed in claim 3, which is characterized in that in step s 4, choosing
Select first PDO value (PDO in January, 2T-2,1), 6-8 month PDO value (PDOT-2,6, PDOT-2,7, PDOT-2,8), PDO value in October
(PDOT-2,10) it is used as the climatic prediction factor, northwest Pacific saury resource abundance prediction model are as follows: CPUE=3.5144+
0.6623*PDOT-2,6+0.7219*PDOT-2,7, PDOT-2,6、PDOT-2,7Respectively 6-7 month PDO value.
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| CN113065247A (en) * | 2021-03-26 | 2021-07-02 | 自然资源部第一海洋研究所 | Novel fishing situation forecasting model and method based on high-resolution ocean forecasting system |
| CN113065247B (en) * | 2021-03-26 | 2022-09-09 | 自然资源部第一海洋研究所 | Novel fishing situation forecasting model and method based on high-resolution ocean forecasting system |
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