CN107403243A - Morocco's marine site Resources of Cephalopods abundance Forecasting Methodology - Google Patents

Morocco's marine site Resources of Cephalopods abundance Forecasting Methodology Download PDF

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CN107403243A
CN107403243A CN201710757009.0A CN201710757009A CN107403243A CN 107403243 A CN107403243 A CN 107403243A CN 201710757009 A CN201710757009 A CN 201710757009A CN 107403243 A CN107403243 A CN 107403243A
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陈新军
汪金涛
雷林
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Shanghai Maritime University
Shanghai Ocean University
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Abstract

The present invention discloses a kind of Morocco marine site Resources of Cephalopods abundance Forecasting Methodology, obtains 1,982 2015 years Moroccan fishing data, each moon Arctic oscillation index NAO in the North Atlantic Ocean, 30 ° of 34 ° of N, 8 ° of W, 12 ° of W marine sites SSTA data;Obtain the NAO in corresponding yeariIndex, calculate the average SSTA in the year of 8 ° of 12 ° of W marine sites i-th of each latitude sectioni;6 marine climates and envirment factor are obtained, is respectively:Climatic factor NAOiIndex, envirment factor:SSTA1、SSTA2、SSTA3、SSTA4、SSTA5;Obtain each annual octopus class Resources Richness Rate Index RA1, each annual Resources of Cephalopods abundance combined index RA2;6 marine climates carry out correlation analysis with RA1 and RA2 respectively with envirment factor;Resource abundance forecast model is established using unitary linear model with RA1 and RA2 according to the factor of influence of acquisition respectively.

Description

Morocco's marine site Resources of Cephalopods abundance Forecasting Methodology
Technical field
The present invention relates to Resources of Cephalopods abundance electric powder prediction, is provided more particularly to a kind of Morocco marine site siphonopods Source abundance Forecasting Methodology.
Background technology
Kingdom of Morocco is located at African northwest end, and the Atlantic Ocean is on the point of in west, is the door in the connection Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean, and Morocco is extra large The long 2983km of water front, its central Atlantic side are 2446km, and Mediterranean side is 537km, the continental shelf within 200m isobaths Area is 60,000 km2, continental shelf width is generally 20~30m, and fishing ground water surface area is km more than 1002, with sardine at the middle and upper levels, The siphonopods product such as octopus of bottom is well-known, is one of rare excellent fishing ground in the world.Wherein cephalopodous yield accounts for The 15~20% of Morocco's fishery total output, are only second to sardine yield.
Phase early 1970s Morocco's siphonopods Fisheries Development is more slow, and annual production is relatively low, until the eighties Annual production starts to increase considerably, and 1980 annual productions reach more than 15000t, then increase year by year, the whole year middle and later periods eighties Yield all maintains 50000t or so, in the 1990s, annual production increases considerably again, the latter stage nineties breaks through to for entrance More than 100000t, until 2000, annual production highest, close to 150000t, into 21 century after annual production start to reduce, The annual production of 2003 and 2004 is relatively low, only more than 2000 ton, remaining time annual production 5000t to 10000t it Between.
In Moroccan fishery output, octopus is main species.According to calendar year statistics data, the 1970s rubs The octopus development of resources of Lip river brother marine site is in reduced levels, and annual production is relatively low.To the beginning of the eighties, annual production increases substantially, The average annual productivity of the eighties further gets a promotion in 26000t or so to the nineties, annual production, this period Nei Nianping Equal yield breaks through 60000t, and octopus annual production at the beginning of 21 century is still in higher level, and subsequent annual production starts to reduce, 2004 Below annual production tumble 20000t, start annual production within 2005 and return to more than 40000t, coming years yield is held at More than 30000t, and come down to annual production in 2012, only 18000t or so, but carried in 2013 annual productions Rise, reach more than 50000t.On the whole start to develop at the beginning of the annual production 80 of the octopus in Morocco marine site, by 20th century 90 There is downward trend after the peak period in age.
China begins participating in Morocco's marine site siphonopods fishing operation from phase late 1980s, have accumulated substantial amounts of life Industry is tested.Due to the species that siphonopods is 1 year, its resource abundance and marine environment are in close relations, and the difference of marine environment is direct Cephalopodous resource abundance is had influence on, and then has influence on fish production and scientific management.Therefore, selection influences its resource abundance Envirment factor, to establish resource abundance forecast model particularly important, if it is possible to it is pre- to establish statistically significant resource abundance Survey model, can scientific guidance in the cephalopodous production in Morocco marine site, it is high to be also that Chinese relevant enterprise is carried out in Morocco marine site Effect fishing offer science reference.
The content of the invention
The present invention is directed to problem and shortage existing for prior art, there is provided a kind of Morocco marine site Resources of Cephalopods abundance is pre- Survey method.
The present invention is that solve above-mentioned technical problem by following technical proposals:
The present invention provides a kind of Morocco marine site Resources of Cephalopods abundance Forecasting Methodology, and its feature is that it includes following Step:
S1, the Moroccan fishing data of 1982-2015 are obtained, obtain each moon north in the 1982-2015 North Atlantic Oceans Pole Oscillation Index NAO data, and obtain 30 ° of -34 ° of N, 8 ° of W-12 ° of W marine sites table temperature anomaly average SSTA data;
Wherein, the fishing data include cuttlefishes fishery output, octopus class fishery output and siphonopods fishing total yield Amount;
S2, the NAO data of each each moon in year are averaged to the NAO that year is corresponded to acquisitioniIndex, respectively with On the basis of 30.5 ° of N, 31.5 ° of N, 32.5 ° of N, 33.5 ° of N and 34.5 ° of N, the year of 8 ° of -12 ° of W marine sites i-th of each latitude section is calculated Average SSTAi
S3,6 marine climates and envirment factor are obtained, be respectively:
Climatic factor:NAOiIndex, envirment factor:30.5 ° N and 8 ° -12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA1)、31.5° N and 8 ° of -12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA2), 32.5 ° N and 8 ° -12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA3)、33.5°N With 8 ° of -12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA4), 34.5 ° N and 8 ° -12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA5);
The maximum output of octopus class fishery output is to obtain between S4, each annual octopus class fishery output divided by 1982-2015 Each annual octopus class Resources Richness Rate Index RA1 is obtained, siphonopods is caught between each annual siphonopods fishing total output divided by 1982-2015 The maximum output of total output is dragged for obtain each annual Resources of Cephalopods abundance combined index RA2;
S5,6 marine climates and envirment factor respectively with octopus class abundance index RA1 and Resources of Cephalopods abundance combined index RA2 carries out correlation analysis, and selection obtains statistically significant (P<0.05) factor of influence, selection standard are phase relation Several absolute values is more than or equal to 0.413;
S6, the factor of influence according to acquisition, respectively with octopus class abundance index RA1 and Resources of Cephalopods abundance combined index RA2 establishes resource abundance forecast model using unitary linear model.
It is preferred that in step s 6, maximum envirment factor is influenceed on octopus class Resources Richness Rate Index RA1 for SSTA5, gas The time factor is NAO, and octopus class Resources Richness Rate Index RA1 resource abundance forecast model is established based on envirment factor:RA1=a1+ B1*SSTA5, sample is carried out to octopus class resource abundance forecast model using RA1 values corresponding to each annual octopus class and SSTA5 values Train to obtain a1 and b1 values;
Octopus class Resources Richness Rate Index RA1 resource abundance forecast model is established based on the natural environment and climate factor:RA1=a2 + b2*SSTA5+b3*NAO, it is pre- to octopus class resource abundance using RA1 values, SSTA5 values and NAO values corresponding to each annual octopus class Survey model and carry out sample training to obtain a2, b2 and b3 value;
The water temperature factor that maximum is influenceed on siphonopods resource abundance combined index RA2 is SSTA5, climatic factor NAO, is based on Envirment factor establishes Resources of Cephalopods abundance combined index RA2 resource abundance forecast model:RA2=a3+b4*SSTA5, using each RA2 values corresponding to annual siphonopods and SSTA5 values sample training is carried out to siphonopods resource abundance forecast model with obtain a3 and B4 values;
Resources of Cephalopods abundance combined index RA2 resource abundance forecast model is established based on the natural environment and climate factor:RA2= A4+b5*SSTA5+b6*NAO, using RA2 values, SSTA5 values and NAO values corresponding to each annual siphonopods to siphonopods resource abundance Forecast model carries out sample training to obtain a4, b5 and b6 value.
It on the basis of common sense in the field is met, above-mentioned each optimum condition, can be combined, it is each preferably real to produce the present invention Example.
The positive effect of the present invention is:
The present invention establishes statistically significant resource abundance forecast model, can scientific guidance in Morocco's marine site head The production of sufficient class, also carry out efficiently fishing in Morocco marine site for Chinese relevant enterprise and science reference is provided.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is 1980-2015 Morocco marine site cuttlefishes yield spatial distribution map.
Fig. 2 is 1980-2015 Morocco marine site octopus class yield spatial distribution map.
Fig. 3 is 1980-2015 Morocco marine site siphonopods yield spatial distribution map.
Fig. 4 is the flow chart of Morocco's marine site Resources of Cephalopods abundance Forecasting Methodology of present pre-ferred embodiments.
Embodiment
To make the purpose, technical scheme and advantage of the embodiment of the present invention clearer, below in conjunction with the embodiment of the present invention In accompanying drawing, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is clearly and completely described, it is clear that described embodiment is Part of the embodiment of the present invention, rather than whole embodiments.Based on the embodiment in the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art The every other embodiment obtained on the premise of creative work is not made, belongs to the scope of protection of the invention.
1st, material is collected
(1) production leadtime data.Downloaded in FAO's whole world fish production staqtistical data base and obtain 1982- Moroccan fishing data in 2015, wherein, fishing data include cuttlefishes, octopus class and cephalopodous fishing production Amount, unit is ton, sees Fig. 1-3.
(2) marine climate and envirment factor data.The National Weather Service of NOAA subordinate in the U.S., National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which are downloaded, obtains North Atlantic Ocean Arctic oscillation index NAO Data, time series are 1982-2015.In Columbia University website http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/ SOURCES/.IGOSS/.nmc/.Reyn_SmithOIv2/.mont hly/.ssta/ download ocean remote sensing and obtain table temperature anomaly Average SSTA data, scope are 30 ° of -34 ° of N, 8 ° of W-12 ° of W marine sites.
2nd, data processing
(1) NAO data processings:Certain i years each moon NAO data are averaged, obtain certain annual NAOiIndex.
(2) SSTA data processings:On the basis of latitude, i.e., respectively 30.5 ° of N, 31.5 ° of N, 32.5 ° of N, 33.5 ° of N, 34.5 ° of N, calculate the average SSTA in the year of 8 ° of -12 ° of W marine sites i-th of a certain latitude sectioni
By above-mentioned analysis, 6 weathers and the marine environment factor are obtained altogether, is respectively:NAOiIndex, 30.5 ° N and 8 ° W-12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA1), 31.5 ° N and 8 ° W-12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA2), 32.5 ° N and 8 ° W-12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA3), 33.5 ° N and 8 ° W-12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA4), 34.5 ° N and 8 ° W-12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA5)。
(3) Resources of Cephalopods abundance index:Because Morocco's marine site siphonopods is mainly octopus class and cuttlefishes, with octopus For main body, therefore Resources of Cephalopods abundance index includes octopus class abundance index (RA1) and Resources of Cephalopods abundance combined index (RA2).Resources Richness Rate Index passes through standardization, i.e., each annual octopus class and cephalopodous yield difference divided by 1995- Maximum output between 2015, i.e., respectively divided by 100606 and 150131.
3rd, analysis method
It is located in high latitude marine site in view of Morocco marine site, is just in the upper up-flow marine site of Canary Current formation, because Abundant bottom nutritive salt is brought into upper strata by this upper up-flow hard, forms good fishing ground, and is the resources such as siphonopods Abundant bait is provided.Therefore, patent of the present invention have selected the index of 5 table temperature average value, and 1 expression climate change Index.Because the yield proportion of cuttlefishes is not so good as octopus class, therefore only consider that octopus class and Resources of Cephalopods abundance are pre- Survey.
6 weathers and envirment factor respectively with octopus class abundance index (RA1) and Resources of Cephalopods abundance combined index (RA2) Correlation analysis is carried out, selection obtains the factor of influence of statistically significant (P < 0.05), and selection standard is coefficient correlation Absolute value be greater than equal to 0.413 (in the case that sample is 21).
According to the factor of influence of above-mentioned acquisition, always refer to octopus class abundance index (RA1) and Resources of Cephalopods abundance respectively Number (RA2) establishes resource abundance forecast model.
4th, analysis result
(1) the factor of influence selection of octopus class Resources Richness Rate Index (RA1)
Analysis shows, the coefficient correlation such as table 1 below with octopus class Resources Richness Rate Index (RA1).As shown in Table 1, counting The significantly correlated factor is SSTA5 on, and the coefficient correlation of NAO and resource abundance is 0.3208.
The coefficient correlation statistical form of table 1
The factor SSTA1 SSTA2 SSTA3 SSTA4 SSTA5 NAO
Coefficient correlation -0.3306 -0.3568 -0.3766 -0.4111 -0.4260 0.3208
Conspicuousness P > 0.05 P > 0.05 P > 0.05 P > 0.05 P < 0.05 P > 0.05
(2) the factor of influence selection of siphonopods class Resources Richness Rate Index (RA2)
Analysis shows, the coefficient correlation such as table 2 below with octopus class Resources Richness Rate Index (RA2).As shown in Table 2, counting The significantly correlated factor is that the coefficient correlation of SSTA4 and SSTA5, NAO and resource abundance is 0.2942 on.
The coefficient correlation statistical form of table 2
The factor SSTA1 SSTA2 SSTA3 SSTA4 SSTA5 NAO
Coefficient correlation -0.2836 -0.3221 -0.3642 -0.4156 -0.4306 0.2942
Conspicuousness P > 0.05 P > 0.05 P > 0.05 P < 0.05 P < 0.05 P > 0.05
(3) resource abundance forecast model is established
Using the envirment factor and climatic factor that above-mentioned influence is maximum, resource abundance is established respectively using unitary linear model Forecast model.Its model is respectively:
1) octopus class Resources Richness Rate Index (RA1) forecast model based on envirment factor
RA1=a+b*SSTA5
Wherein, a=0.8178, b=-0.50349;A 95% confidential interval is [0.48417,1.15144];The 95% of b Confidential interval is [- 1.1016,0.00999], and coefficient correlation is 0.4260 (P=0.0496 < 0.05).
2) Resources of Cephalopods abundance index (RA2) forecast model based on envirment factor
RA2=a+b*SSTA5
Wherein, a=0.79721, b=-0.45374;A 95% confidential interval is [0.50051,1.09392];B's 95% confidential interval is [- 0.9104, -0.00291], and coefficient correlation is 0.4310 (P=0.0453 < 0.05).
3) forecast model based on weather and envirment factor
Octopus class Resources Richness Rate Index (RA1) forecast model:
RA1=a+b1*SSTA5+b2*NAO
Wherein, a=0.8647, b1=-0.5351, b2=0.1942;A 95% confidential interval for [0.5434, 1.1861];B1 95% confidential interval is [- 1.0238, -0.04635];B2 95% confidential interval for [- 0.03209, 0.42058], coefficient correlation is 0.5538 (P=0.0370 < 0.05).
Resources of Cephalopods abundance index (RA2) forecast model:
RA2=a+b1*SSTA5+b2*NAO
Wherein, a=0.8359, b1=-0.47983, b2=0.16029;A 95% confidential interval for [0.5466, 1.1253];B1 95% confidential interval is [- 0.91991, -0.03975];B2 95% confidential interval for [- 0.04351, 0.364088], coefficient correlation is 0.5410 (P=0.0443<0.05).
Summarize, as shown in figure 4, Morocco's marine site Resources of Cephalopods abundance Forecasting Methodology that the present embodiment provides, it includes Following steps:
Step 101, the Moroccan fishing data of 1982-2015 are obtained, it is each to obtain the 1982-2015 North Atlantic Oceans Month Arctic oscillation index NAO data, and obtain 30 ° of -34 ° of N, 8 ° of W-12 ° of W marine sites table temperature anomaly average SSTA data;
Wherein, the fishing data include cuttlefishes fishery output, octopus class fishery output and siphonopods fishing total yield Amount;
Step 102, the NAO exponent datas of each each moon in year are averaged to the NAO that year is corresponded to acquisitioniIndex, Respectively on the basis of 30.5 ° of N, 31.5 ° of N, 32.5 ° of N, 33.5 ° of N and 34.5 ° of N, 8 ° of -12 ° of W marine sites of each latitude section are calculated The average SSTA in i yearsi
Step 103,6 marine climates and envirment factor are obtained, be respectively:
Climatic factor:NAOiIndex, envirment factor:30.5 ° N and 8 ° -12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA1)、31.5° N and 8 ° of -12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA2), 32.5 ° N and 8 ° -12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA3)、33.5°N With 8 ° of -12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA4), 34.5 ° N and 8 ° -12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA5);
The maximum output of octopus class fishery output between step 104, each annual octopus class fishery output divided by 1982-2015 To obtain each annual octopus class Resources Richness Rate Index RA1, cephalopodium between each annual siphonopods fishing total output divided by 1982-2015 The maximum output of class fishing total output is to obtain each annual Resources of Cephalopods abundance combined index RA2;
Step 105,6 marine climates and envirment factor respectively with octopus class abundance index RA1 and Resources of Cephalopods abundance Combined index RA2 carries out correlation analysis, and selection obtains statistically significant (P<0.05) factor of influence, selection standard are The absolute value of coefficient correlation is more than or equal to 0.413;
Step 106, the factor of influence according to acquisition, it is total with octopus class abundance index RA1 and Resources of Cephalopods abundance respectively Index RA2 establishes resource abundance forecast model using unitary linear model.
Although the foregoing describing the embodiment of the present invention, it will be appreciated by those of skill in the art that these It is merely illustrative of, protection scope of the present invention is defined by the appended claims.Those skilled in the art is not carrying on the back On the premise of principle and essence from the present invention, various changes or modifications can be made to these embodiments, but these are changed Protection scope of the present invention is each fallen within modification.

Claims (2)

1. a kind of Morocco marine site Resources of Cephalopods abundance Forecasting Methodology, it is characterised in that it comprises the following steps:
S1, the Moroccan fishing data of 1982-2015 are obtained, obtain each moon arctic great waves in the 1982-2015 North Atlantic Oceans Dynamic index NAO data, and obtain 30 ° of -34 ° of N, 8 ° of W-12 ° of W marine sites table temperature anomaly average SSTA data;
Wherein, the fishing data include cuttlefishes fishery output, octopus class fishery output and siphonopods fishing total output;
S2, the NAO data of each each moon in year are averaged to the NAO that year is corresponded to acquisitioniIndex, respectively with 30.5 ° of N, On the basis of 31.5 ° of N, 32.5 ° of N, 33.5 ° of N and 34.5 ° of N, 8 ° of -12 ° of W marine sites i-th year for calculating each latitude section is averaged SSTAi
S3,6 marine climates and envirment factor are obtained, be respectively:
Climatic factor:NAOiIndex, envirment factor:30.5 ° N and 8 ° -12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA1), 31.5 ° of N and 8 ° of -12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA2), 32.5 ° N and 8 ° -12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA3), 33.5 ° of N and 8 ° of -12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA4), 34.5 ° N and 8 ° -12 ° of W marine sites annual SSTAi(SSTA5);
The maximum output of octopus class fishery output is each to obtain between S4, each annual octopus class fishery output divided by 1982-2015 Annual octopus class Resources Richness Rate Index RA1, siphonopods fishing is total between each annual siphonopods fishing total output divided by 1982-2015 The maximum output of yield is to obtain each annual Resources of Cephalopods abundance combined index RA2;
S5,6 marine climates and envirment factor respectively with octopus class abundance index RA1 and Resources of Cephalopods abundance combined index RA2 Correlation analysis is carried out, selection obtains statistically significant (P<0.05) factor of influence, selection standard are coefficient correlation Absolute value be more than or equal to 0.413;
S6, the factor of influence according to acquisition, it is sharp with octopus class abundance index RA1 and Resources of Cephalopods abundance combined index RA2 respectively Resource abundance forecast model is established with unitary linear model.
2. Resources of Cephalopods abundance Forecasting Methodology in Morocco marine site as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that in step S6 In, octopus class Resources Richness Rate Index RA1 is influenceed maximum envirment factor be SSTA5, climatic factor NAO, based on environment because Son establishes octopus class Resources Richness Rate Index RA1 resource abundance forecast model:RA1=a1+b1*SSTA5, using each annual octopus RA1 values corresponding to class and SSTA5 values carry out sample training to obtain a1 and b1 values to octopus class resource abundance forecast model;
Octopus class Resources Richness Rate Index RA1 resource abundance forecast model is established based on the natural environment and climate factor:RA1=a2+b2* SSTA5+b3*NAO, mould is predicted to octopus class resource abundance using RA1 values, SSTA5 values and NAO values corresponding to each annual octopus class Type carries out sample training to obtain a2, b2 and b3 value;
The water temperature factor that maximum is influenceed on siphonopods resource abundance combined index RA2 is SSTA5, climatic factor NAO, based on environment The factor establishes Resources of Cephalopods abundance combined index RA2 resource abundance forecast model:RA2=a3+b4*SSTA5, using each year RA2 values corresponding to siphonopods and SSTA5 values carry out sample training to obtain a3 and b4 values to siphonopods resource abundance forecast model;
Resources of Cephalopods abundance combined index RA2 resource abundance forecast model is established based on the natural environment and climate factor:RA2=a4+ B5*SSTA5+b6*NAO, it is pre- to siphonopods resource abundance using RA2 values, SSTA5 values and NAO values corresponding to each annual siphonopods Survey model and carry out sample training to obtain a4, b5 and b6 value.
CN201710757009.0A 2017-08-29 2017-08-29 Morocco's marine site Resources of Cephalopods abundance Forecasting Methodology Pending CN107403243A (en)

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Cited By (4)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN109460860A (en) * 2018-10-18 2019-03-12 上海海洋大学 Argentinian squid Resources Prediction method based on Antarctic Oscillations index
CN109460867A (en) * 2018-11-02 2019-03-12 上海海洋大学 Chilean scad resource abundance medium- and long-term forecasting method based on ocean Nino index
CN109523071A (en) * 2018-11-02 2019-03-26 上海海洋大学 Saury resource abundance medium- and long-term forecasting method based on Pacific Ocean Oscillation Index
CN109360237A (en) * 2018-12-07 2019-02-19 北京市水产科学研究所(国家淡水渔业工程技术研究中心) A kind of prediction technique of total fish catches

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