CN113065247B - Novel fishing situation forecasting model and method based on high-resolution ocean forecasting system - Google Patents
Novel fishing situation forecasting model and method based on high-resolution ocean forecasting system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the technical field of fishing situation forecasting, and particularly relates to a novel fishing situation forecasting model and a novel fishing situation forecasting method based on a high-resolution ocean forecasting system, wherein the model comprises a hydrodynamic module, a passive motion module and a fishery ecological module; the hydrokinetic module comprises a complete hydrokinetic environment; the passive motion module comprises a passive motion process; the fishery ecological module comprises an active motion strategy and simulation and forecast of the complete life history of multiple fish species. The model and the forecasting method provided by the invention support a complete hydrodynamic process, relate to the passive movement of fishes and the active movement process of migratory fishes, can be used for simulating and forecasting the complete life history of various fish species, and the forecasting result not only can provide fishing situation forecasting products for guiding fishery scientific production, but also can provide reference for optimizing fishery resource management and other aspects.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of fishing condition forecasting, and particularly relates to a novel fishing condition forecasting model and method based on a high-resolution ocean forecasting system.
Background
The fish has huge resource amount in the ocean and wide spatial distribution, so the investigation difficulty is large, and the population dynamic research of the fish is always a great challenge for fishery management and fishery research. Over the past two decades, many scholars have primarily utilized an Individual-based Model (IBM) to address this ecological problem. IBM consists of an ocean physical model and a biological model, and studies its time evolution and spatial motion with an individual or spatial unit as a target to obtain a spatio-temporal pattern of the entire model.
However, IBM's application has many limitations. In the research, it is important to consider the complete marine physical process to improve the accuracy of the fishery prediction model, but most of the research by IBM does not support the complete hydrodynamic environment, only involving advection and diffusion in the ocean current background. In the past, IBM was mainly used for simulating the passive motion process of a single fish species in the young fish stage, and is rarely used for the research of active motion in the maturation stage. In addition, in the aspect of fishery ecology, only simulation of a single fish species is supported in the past, the simulated fishery ecology process is not complete enough, biological variables related to growth are single, and in the aspect of setting of mortality, only natural mortality is considered to simulate middle-term and long-term death activities, and unnatural mortality is not involved.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the problems in the prior art and provides a novel fishing situation forecasting model and a method based on a high-resolution ocean forecasting system, wherein the model comprises a hydrodynamic module, a passive motion module and a fishery ecological module; the method supports a complete hydrodynamic process, relates to an active motion strategy of migratory fishes, can be used for simulating and forecasting complete life history of multiple fish species, and can provide forecasting results obtained by the method for some fishery forecasting products for guiding fishery scientific production and provide references for optimizing fishery resource management and other aspects.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a novel fishing situation forecasting model based on a high-resolution ocean forecasting system comprises a hydrodynamic module, a passive motion module and a fishery ecological module; the method specifically comprises a complete hydrodynamic environment, an active movement strategy of migratory fishes and simulation and forecast of complete life history of multiple fish species. The hydrokinetic module is a complete hydrokinetic environment for providing a complete hydrokinetic background; the passive motion module comprises a passive motion process; the fishery ecological module comprises an active motion strategy and simulation and forecast of the complete life history of multiple fish species; the active movement strategy of the migratory fishes is used for determining the speed and the direction of the active movement of the mature fishes; the simulation of the complete life history of the multiple fish species is used for simulating the complete fishery ecological process of the multiple fish species in each growth stage.
Further, the hydrodynamics module is used for providing a complete hydrodynamics background, and the hydrodynamics data parameters include horizontal direction flow velocity, sea surface wind field, tidal current and wave related data.
Furthermore, the interfaces designed by the model aiming at the high-resolution ocean forecasting system comprise a single-mode high-resolution interface, a single-mode interface with an interpolation function and a multi-mode splicing interface.
Further, the passive movement module comprises a passive movement process of the fish; the fishery ecological module comprises an active movement strategy of migratory fishes and simulation and forecast of complete life history of multiple fish species.
Further, the fishery ecological module specifically comprises a spawning process, a growing process, a death process and an active movement process; the active motion strategy includes large scale motion in the horizontal direction, small scale motion in the horizontal direction, and diurnal vertical motion in the vertical direction.
Further, for large-scale movement in the horizontal direction, the mature individuals resist water flow and return to a spawning ground for spawning migration; for small scale motion in the horizontal direction, with temperature and salinity gradients as relevant factors for the initial food field, the direction of motion is controlled by the following equation (1):
wherein, G is a scalar quantity,
is a unit vector, w T And w S Is the weight of the temperature gradient and the salinity gradient,
and
are the components of the temperature gradient in the x and y directions,
and
is the component of the salinity gradient in the x and y directions; unit vector
Can be used to determine the direction of the individual's active movement, the speed of which is set as a parameter.
For day and night vertical movement in the vertical direction, the habitat water depth range of the target fish species is obtained through fishery investigation or literature, then the individuals are enabled to be upstream in the day and downstream in the evening in the range, and the movement speed in the vertical direction is provided in a parameter form.
Further, the simulation of the complete life history of the multiple fish species specifically comprises: supporting the simultaneous simulation of various fishes, covering all growth stages of the whole life history of the fishes, and relating to a complete fishery ecological process;
wherein, the oviposition process is used for initializing the new born individuals;
selecting a corresponding growth scheme according to the fish species in the growth process, wherein the biological variables related to the growth scheme comprise fish body length, fish body weight, gonad weight and gonad body index;
in terms of growth, the model supports different growth protocols, the specific protocol being as follows:
there are two calculation schemes for the body length of fish, one is related to the water temperature, and the formula is as follows:
wherein L represents a body length (mm); l is max Maximum body length; t is time in days; c is a constant; r is a radical of hydrogen T Is a function related to water temperature;
another solution is time dependent, and its formula is as follows:
wherein L represents body length (mm); coe a And coe b Is a parameter determined by the fish species; b t Is a function related to time.
The weight of the fish has two calculation schemes, one is related to the body length of the fish, and the body length-weight relation equation is as follows:
W＝aL b (4)
wherein a and b are parameters determined by the species of fish; w represents weight (g) of fish; l represents the body length (mm) of the fish;
another weight calculation is related to bait concentration, and is expressed as follows:
wherein W and W t-1 Wet weight (g) of fish on day t and day t-1, respectively; c represents food consumption; r represents loss of respiration or metabolism; SDA denotes energy consumption for food digestion; f represents energy expenditure by excretion; e energy expenditure of nitrogenous excreta; CAL z And CAL f Respectively, the heat of phytoplankton and fish. The units of C, R, SDA, F and E are all W prey W t-1 - 1 day- 1 Wherein W is prey Indicates the wet weight (g) of the bait.
Gonad weight is a function related to fish body weight:
gw=coel(W-coe2)+coe3 (6)
wherein gw represents gonad weight (g); w represents body weight (g); coe1, coe2 and coe3 are parameters determined by the species and maturity of the fish.
The sex gland index (GSI) reflects the relative relationship of fish gonad weight to body weight:
wherein GSI represents the gonadal body index; gw and W represent gonad weight and body weight (g) of the fish, respectively.
The death process comprises natural death and unnatural death, wherein the immature individuals only adopt natural death rate, a corresponding scheme is selected for setting the natural death rate, the mature individuals simultaneously consider the natural death rate and the unnatural death rate, the unnatural death rate is calculated by adopting a fishing death rate, and the fishing death rate is a constant.
In terms of death, the model supports natural death and unnatural death, where the setting of natural mortality supports two scenarios:
firstly, the natural mortality is set as a constant, and secondly, the calculation of the natural mortality depends on the growth of fishes, and the expression is as follows:
wherein M represents the daily average natural mortality; g represents daily average absolute growth rate (mm); l represents body length (mm); p is a radical of a ，p b And p c Is a parameter determined by the fish species.
The non-death process uses the fishing mortality rate, which is set as a constant in the model according to fishery surveys or related literature.
A novel fishing situation forecasting method based on a high-resolution ocean forecasting system is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) determining a longitude and latitude range of a target area, setting simulated start and stop time, selecting a proper data interface, and reading hydrodynamic data of a target moment based on a complete hydrodynamic environment of a high-resolution Ocean Forecasting System (OFS);
(2) setting an initial spawning ground, determining the coordinates of the central position of the spawning ground according to fishery survey or fishery resource assessment reports, then setting the radius of the spawning ground, uniformly releasing the new individuals in the radius range of the spawning ground, and then setting spawning time and spawning frequency;
(3) realizing the movement process of the individual fish based on the read hydrodynamic data, judging the growth stage of the current individual, enabling the immature individual to do passive movement along with the hydrodynamic environment, enabling the mature individual to resist water flow to do passive and active movement, and finally calculating the longitude, the latitude and the depth of the latest position of the individual;
(4) judging the growth stage of the individual at the current moment, and simulating the fishery ecological process of the individual, wherein the fishery ecological process mainly comprises a spawning process, a growth process, a death process and a movement process, and the movement process is realized by the step (3); in the aspect of spawning, initializing a new born individual; in the aspect of growth, selecting a corresponding growth scheme according to the fish species; in the aspect of death, the immature individuals only adopt natural mortality, and the mature individuals simultaneously consider natural mortality and fishing mortality; finally, simulating biological variables of the stage, wherein the biological variables comprise body length, body weight, gonad weight and gonad body index;
(5) and (4) circularly stepping the steps (1) to (4) according to time, and outputting the forecasting result once every other day for statistics of the forecasting result.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention provides a novel fishing situation forecasting model based on a high-resolution ocean forecasting system, which comprises a hydrodynamic module, a passive motion module and a fishery ecological module; the platform for researching the influence and interaction of different physical or fishery processes is provided, the accuracy of fishery resource forecasting can be improved, and fishery forecast products such as the yield of the fishery, the fishery situation distribution, the biological variables of fishes and the like can be provided for subsequent process analysis and the like.
The forecasting method provided by the invention supports a complete hydrodynamics process, relates to an active movement process of the migratory fish, can be used for simulating and forecasting the complete life history of multiple fish species, and the forecasting result not only can provide fishing situation forecasting products for guiding fishery scientific production, but also can provide reference for optimizing fishery resource management and other aspects.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a frame diagram of a fishery forecast model design;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a fishing forecasting model system;
FIG. 3 is a graph of the distribution of Pacific ocean Pleurotus sajor autumn school all year round; wherein a is a number distribution map and b is a yield distribution map.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
For a further understanding of the invention, reference will now be made to the following description taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and examples.
As shown in fig. 1 and 2, the present invention provides a novel fishing situation forecasting model and method based on a high-resolution ocean forecasting system. The model comprises a hydrodynamic module, a passive motion module and a fishery ecological module; the method specifically comprises the steps of complete hydrodynamic environment, a passive movement process of fishes, an active movement strategy of migratory fishes and simulation and forecast of complete life history of multiple fish species.
The hydrodynamic module comprises a complete hydrodynamic environment and is used for providing a complete hydrodynamic background which comprises relevant data such as horizontal flow velocity, sea surface wind field, tidal current and sea wave; the passive movement module comprises passive movement of fish; the fishery ecological module comprises an active movement strategy of migratory fishes and simulation and forecast of complete life history of multiple fish species; the method specifically comprises a spawning process, a growth process, a death process and an active movement process; the active motion strategy includes large-scale motion in the horizontal direction, small-scale motion in the horizontal direction, and diurnal vertical motion in the vertical direction.
Examples
In the following, the distribution and biological variables of pacific plectropods are simulated based on the present invention, taking the pacific plectropods as an example.
According to the step (1), a hydrodynamics module is developed, a target area is selected, the range covers 100 degrees of E-220 degrees of E and 0-80 degrees of N, the test time is 10 months-9 months in 2017, the OFS single mode interface with the interpolation function is used for reading complete hydrodynamics data at a certain moment, namely, grid data of the target area are read, the resolution of the grid data is customized through an interpolation method, and the grid resolution is set to be 0.1 degree in the simulation process.
According to the step (2), a fishery ecological module is developed, the coordinates of the central positions of two spawning sites are respectively determined to be 130.5 degrees E, 35.5 degrees N, 136.2 degrees E and 37.1 degrees N according to the 2018 Pacific ocean Pleuropus ocellatus autumn school resource evaluation report provided by a Japanese fishery institution, then the radius of the spawning sites is set to be 111 kilometers, and the new individual is uniformly released in the spawning radius range; the spawning time is set to 10-12 months in 2017, and the spawning frequency is once every 3.5 days.
And (4) developing a passive motion module according to the step (3), wherein the passive motion module and the fishery ecological module respectively simulate the passive motion process and the active motion process of a single individual. And judging the growth stage of the current individual, wherein the immature individual does passive motion along with the hydrodynamic environment, and the mature individual resists water flow to do passive and active motion. For large-scale movement in the horizontal direction, returning the mature individuals to a spawning ground for spawning migration; for small-scale movement in the horizontal direction, the temperature gradient and the salinity gradient are used as relevant factors of an initial food field to dominate the active movement direction of a mature individual, and the active movement direction is determined according to a formula (1); for day and night vertical movement in the vertical direction, the fingerlings are mainly distributed in the water depth range of 80-150 meters, mature individuals are made to move upstream in the daytime and downstream in the evening, the movement speed is set to be 0.01m/s, and the distribution of the positions of the individuals refers to fig. 3 a.
And (4) simulating the fishery ecological process of the growth stage of the individual at the current moment in the fishery ecological module. For the spawning process, parent fish are released in a spawning ground to participate in the spawning process, the number of spawns is about 42 thousands in total in the spawning period, and then initialization processing is carried out on newly born individuals. For the growth process, the system firstly judges the growth stage of the individual at the current moment, selects a corresponding growth scheme, and the growth of the carcass back length depends on time as shown in formula (3) (female: coe) a ＝268，coe b ＝0，b t -4.5+0.026 t; male: coe a ＝258，coe b ＝0，b t -4.54+0.0257 t); the growth of body weight depends on the length of the carcass back, as shown in formula (4) (a ═ e) -9.27 And b is 2.72); the growth of gonads is dependent on body weight, as shown in formula (6), wherein immature females (coe1 ═ 0.021, coe2 ═ 50.5, coe3 ═ 0), mature females correspond to parameters (coe1 ═ 0.033, coe2 ═ 200, coe3 ═ 5.785), immature males correspond to parameters (coe1 ═ 0.038, coe2 ═ 54.3, coe3 ═ 0), mature males correspond to parameters (coe1 ═ 0.021, coe2 ═ 150, coe3 ═ 6.684); the gonad maturity is dependent on the relative relationship between gonad weight and body weight, and is expressed by the gonad body index GSI, as shown in equation (7). For the death process, immature individuals used only natural mortality, with the monthly average natural mortality set to 0.1; the natural mortality and the fishing mortality are considered simultaneously by mature individuals, the average fishing mortality in the month during the fishing period is set to be 0.027, and the fishing period is 4 months to 9 months in 2018. The total number of individuals in the field at the end of the simulation was about 12 tens of thousands.
According to the step (5), the steps (1) to (4) are calculated according to time cycle, the results of the successive forecast are output every other day, the number distribution (figure 3a) and the yield distribution (figure 3b) of the pacific plectropods autumn school shown in figure 3 can be obtained through statistics, and the school is mainly concentrated on the coast of horse-warm current and the coast sea area in the southwest of the Japan sea and is basically consistent with the result reported by the Japanese resource assessment in 2018. The invention reproduces the complete life history of the pacific ocean velvetfish autumn school, provides fishing situation information products, shows the practicability of the invention, and can provide reference for guiding scientific production of fishery, optimizing fishery resource management and the like.
Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that modifications may be made to the embodiments described above, or equivalents may be substituted for elements thereof. Any modification, equivalent replacement, or modification made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. A novel fishing situation forecasting method based on a high-resolution ocean forecasting system is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) determining a latitude and longitude range of a target area, setting a simulated start-stop time, selecting a proper interface, and reading hydrodynamic data of a target moment based on a complete hydrodynamic environment of a high-resolution ocean forecasting system;
(2) setting an initial spawning site, determining the coordinates of the center position of the spawning site, setting the radius of the spawning site, uniformly releasing the new individuals in the radius range of the spawning site, and setting spawning time and spawning frequency;
(3) realizing the movement process of the individual fish based on the read hydrodynamic data, judging the growth stage of the current individual, enabling the immature individual to do passive movement along with the hydrodynamic environment, enabling the mature individual to resist water flow to do passive and active movement, and finally calculating the longitude, the latitude and the depth of the latest position of the individual;
(4) judging the growth stage of the individual at the current moment, and simulating the oviposition process, the growth process and the death process of fishery ecology and the movement process in the step (3);
(5) and (4) circularly stepping the steps (1) to (4) according to time, and outputting the forecasting result once every other day for statistics of the forecasting result.
2. A fishing situation forecasting model based on the fishing situation forecasting method of claim 1, wherein the fishing situation forecasting model comprises a hydrodynamic module, a passive motion module and a fishery ecology module; the hydrokinetic module comprises a complete hydrokinetic environment; the passive motion module comprises a passive motion process; the fishery ecological module comprises an active motion strategy and simulation and forecast of the complete life history of multiple fish species.
3. The fishery prediction model of claim 2, wherein the hydrodynamics module is configured to provide a complete hydrodynamics background, and the hydrodynamics data comprises horizontal direction flow velocity, sea surface wind field, tidal current, and wave related data.
4. The fishery prediction model of claim 2, wherein the interfaces designed for the high-resolution ocean prediction system comprise a single-mode high-resolution interface, a single-mode self-interpolation-function-equipped interface and a multi-mode splicing interface.
5. A fishing forecasting model in accordance with claim 2, characterized in that the passive movement module comprises a passive movement process of the fish; the fishery ecological module comprises an active movement strategy of migratory fishes and simulation and forecast of complete life history of multiple fish species.
6. The fishing forecasting model of claim 2, wherein the fishery ecological module specifically comprises a spawning process, a growing process, a death process, an active movement process; the active motion strategy includes large scale motion in the horizontal direction, small scale motion in the horizontal direction, and diurnal vertical motion in the vertical direction.
7. The fishing forecasting model of claim 6, wherein, for large scale movements in the horizontal direction, the mature individuals resist water flow back to the spawning ground for spawning migration; for small-scale movement in the horizontal direction, taking a temperature gradient and a salinity gradient as related factors of an initial food field, and controlling the movement direction; for day and night vertical movement in the vertical direction, according to the obtained inhabitation water depth range of the target fish species, the individuals are enabled to be upstream in the daytime and downstream in the evening in the range.
8. The fishing forecasting model of claim 6, wherein the spawning process initializes the newly born individual; selecting a corresponding growth scheme according to the fish species in the growth process, wherein the biological variables related to the growth scheme comprise fish body length, fish body weight, gonad weight and gonad body index; the death process comprises natural death and unnatural death, wherein the immature individuals only adopt natural death rate, a corresponding scheme is selected for setting the natural death rate, the mature individuals simultaneously consider the natural death rate and the unnatural death rate, the unnatural death rate is calculated by adopting a fishing death rate, and the fishing death rate is a constant.
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