CN108961688B - Geological disaster monitoring and early warning method under support of big data - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a geological disaster monitoring and early warning method under the support of big data, which comprises the steps of generating a corresponding geological disaster monitoring model according to historical data of geological disaster points; carrying out similarity analysis on the monitored area and the geological disaster detection model, and setting the monitored area as a geological disaster hidden danger area if the similarity reaches a limit value; acquiring monitoring data of the geological disaster hidden danger area through real-time equipment; performing similarity analysis on each factor in the monitoring data and the data corresponding to the geological disaster monitoring model with the highest similarity to obtain a probability value of occurrence of a geological disaster; and if the probability value is greater than the limit value, carrying out real-time early warning on the geological disaster, and improving the accuracy of monitoring the disaster.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a geological disaster monitoring and early warning method under the support of big data.
Background
Factors influencing geological disaster activities comprise weather, geography, geology and the like, are mutually interwoven, and natural and artificial factors are mutually superposed. The existing early warning model is determined by an expert in a mode of firstly assuming and then verifying, based on a statistical method, early warning criteria are established by coupling multiple factors such as geological environment change, rainfall parameters and the like, but the method does not fully play the role of big data, is controlled and influenced by factors such as selection of statistical samples, fineness of geological environment conditions, accurate matching of live rainfall data and the like to a certain extent, is difficult to update and perfect in real time, and a unified experience model cannot meet requirements on applicability and accuracy of geological disaster monitoring under different conditions.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a geological disaster monitoring and early warning method under the support of big data, and the accuracy of monitoring disasters is improved.
The invention is realized by the following steps: a geological disaster monitoring and early warning method under the support of big data comprises the following steps:
step 1, generating a corresponding geological disaster monitoring model according to historical data of geological disaster points;
step 2, carrying out similarity analysis on the monitored area and the geological disaster detection model, and setting the monitored area as a geological disaster hidden danger area if the similarity reaches a limit value;
4, performing similarity analysis on each data in the monitoring data and the data corresponding to the geological disaster monitoring model with the highest similarity to obtain a probability value of occurrence of geological disasters;
and 5, if the probability value is larger than the limit value, carrying out real-time early warning on the geological disaster.
Further, the step 1 is further specifically: historical disaster point data (disaster type, disaster level, disaster influence range), historical remote sensing image data, landforms, stratigraphic structures, vegetation coverage, climate, precipitation, water system distribution, dam construction and road construction.
Further, the step 4 is further specifically: performing similarity analysis on each data in the monitoring data and the data corresponding to the geological disaster monitoring model with the highest similarity, setting probability weight for each data, multiplying the value obtained by the similarity analysis by the corresponding probability weight, and adding the obtained values to obtain the probability value of occurrence of the geological disaster; the monitoring data includes: landform, stratum structure, vegetation coverage, water system distribution, remote sensing image data, terrain deformation data, meteorological data, dam construction and road construction.
The invention has the following advantages:
1) the disaster-causing inducement of the geological disaster is analyzed from the factors of nature, man-made, remote sensing and the like according to historical data, and the value of the multi-source historical big data is fully exerted.
2) By adopting an artificial intelligence technology and a continuous learning mode, experience is continuously accumulated, and multi-source data value is mined, so that the model is self-optimized, and the barrier that the experience model cannot be self-perfected is broken through.
3) The grid personalized geological disaster monitoring model is established, the influence of the traditional model on disaster monitoring, which cannot realize universality, is broken, and the accuracy of geological disaster monitoring and early warning in local areas can be effectively improved.
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The invention will be further described with reference to the following examples with reference to the accompanying drawings.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
As shown in fig. 1, the invention relates to a geological disaster monitoring and early warning method supported by big data, which comprises the following steps:
step 1, generating a corresponding geological disaster monitoring model through a neural network learning algorithm according to the historical data of geological disasters; the historical data of the geological disaster and the relevant influence factor data comprise: historical disaster point data (disaster type, disaster level and disaster influence range), historical remote sensing image data, landforms, stratum structures, vegetation coverage, climate, precipitation, water system distribution, dam construction and road construction;
step 2, carrying out similarity analysis on the monitored area and the geological disaster detection model, and setting the monitored area as a geological disaster hidden danger area if the similarity reaches a limit value;
and 5, if the probability value is larger than the limit value, carrying out real-time early warning on the geological disaster.
One specific embodiment of the present invention:
in order to solve the limitation problem of an empirical geological disaster monitoring model, the invention introduces the idea of a grid personalized model, adopts an artificial intelligence technology, combines multi-source and multi-type big data based on historical geological disaster point data, and analyzes the cause of the geological disaster from natural and man-made factors. Further, a geological disaster monitoring model with grid individuation and self-improvement capacity is established, fine monitoring and early warning of geological disasters are finally achieved, and the position, type and occurrence probability of the geological disasters are predicted. The method can give full play to the advantages of big data, deeply analyze the disaster law hidden behind the data, and avoid incompleteness of data analysis; meanwhile, dynamic self-improvement and optimization of the model can be realized, and the influence on disaster monitoring caused by untimely model improvement is reduced; moreover, the grid personalized model can improve the monitoring accuracy of local geological disasters.
As shown in fig. 2, the present invention includes:
1) selecting China as a service area, dividing the service area into a plurality of grids according to the topographic variation characteristics of the service area, and using the grids as basic units established by a geological disaster monitoring model.
2) On the basis of the grid in the step (1), firstly, based on different types of geological disasters such as landslides, debris flows and the like, taking historical geological disaster point data as a sample, and positioning the place, time and frequency of occurrence of the historical geological disasters and disaster grades; analyzing various factors before, when and after the geological disasters of different levels and different frequencies occur, wherein the factors comprise natural factors such as landforms, stratum structures, vegetation coverage, climate and precipitation, and man-made factors causing geological disaster hidden dangers such as dam construction and road construction, analyzing the change conditions of factors such as spectrum and texture in the geological disaster occurrence process by combining historical remote sensing image data of a historical geological disaster occurrence area and an influence range thereof, comprehensively analyzing the change conditions of various data in the formation and occurrence process, excavating a disaster incentive, and evaluating the influence degree of different factors on the disaster occurrence; and finally, establishing a corresponding geological disaster monitoring model according to the influence factors and corresponding weights of geological disaster occurrence of different types, different levels and different frequencies, and finally forming a grid personalized geological disaster monitoring model library covering all the geological disaster types.
3) And (3) carrying out similarity analysis on the whole service area and the historical geological disaster occurrence area based on the relevant factors and the geological disaster model mentioned in the step (2), and judging the area with the potential hazard of the geological disaster if the similarity is higher.
4) Based on real-time monitoring equipment such as an unmanned aerial vehicle and a micro-variation radar, the real-time change conditions of the displacement deformation data and the meteorological data of the geological disaster hidden danger area positioned in the step (3) are monitored in a key mode, and real-time remote sensing data are processed and analyzed in time.
5) And (3) accessing the real-time monitoring data into the geological disaster monitoring model obtained in the step (2) in real time, comparing all the influence factors, and performing similarity calculation to obtain the probability of occurrence of the geological disaster, thereby realizing the real-time early warning of the geological disaster.
6) And (3) transmitting the real-time monitoring data and the geological disaster early warning data as sample data to the step (2) for continuous learning and analysis, further analyzing and predicting the situations that the ground disaster possibly occurs and the ground disaster actually does not occur, and further adjusting the geological disaster monitoring model to realize the self-improvement function of the model.
Although specific embodiments of the invention have been described above, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that the specific embodiments described are illustrative only and are not limiting upon the scope of the invention, and that equivalent modifications and variations can be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit of the invention, which is to be limited only by the appended claims.
Claims (1)
1. A geological disaster monitoring and early warning method under the support of big data is characterized in that: the method comprises the following steps:
step 1, dividing a service area into a plurality of grids according to the topographic variation characteristics of the service area, and taking the grids as basic units established by a geological disaster monitoring model; generating a corresponding geological disaster monitoring model according to historical data of geological disaster points, and forming a grid personalized geological disaster monitoring model library covering all geological disaster types;
step 2, carrying out similarity analysis on the monitored area and the geological disaster detection model, and setting the monitored area as a geological disaster hidden danger area if the similarity reaches a limit value;
step 3, acquiring monitoring data of the geological disaster hidden danger area through real-time equipment;
step 4, performing similarity analysis on each factor in the monitoring data and a factor corresponding to the geological disaster monitoring model with the highest similarity, setting probability weight for each factor, multiplying a value obtained by the similarity analysis by the corresponding probability weight, and adding the obtained values to obtain a probability value of occurrence of a geological disaster; the monitoring data includes: disaster type, disaster level, topography, stratigraphic construction, vegetation coverage, climate, precipitation, dam construction and road construction;
and 5, if the probability value is larger than the limit value, carrying out real-time early warning on the geological disaster.
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