CN108932558A - A kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting method - Google Patents
A kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting method Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN108932558A CN108932558A CN201810487158.4A CN201810487158A CN108932558A CN 108932558 A CN108932558 A CN 108932558A CN 201810487158 A CN201810487158 A CN 201810487158A CN 108932558 A CN108932558 A CN 108932558A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- charging station
- opening type
- charging
- load
- electric
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Granted
Links
- 238000013277 forecasting method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 21
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 3
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 claims description 26
- 230000005611 electricity Effects 0.000 claims description 13
- 238000004378 air conditioning Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- 230000007613 environmental effect Effects 0.000 claims description 5
- 238000013461 design Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 235000006508 Nelumbo nucifera Nutrition 0.000 claims 1
- 240000002853 Nelumbo nucifera Species 0.000 claims 1
- 235000006510 Nelumbo pentapetala Nutrition 0.000 claims 1
- 238000005457 optimization Methods 0.000 abstract description 6
- PEDCQBHIVMGVHV-UHFFFAOYSA-N Glycerine Chemical compound OCC(O)CO PEDCQBHIVMGVHV-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 6
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 5
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 description 3
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 239000012141 concentrate Substances 0.000 description 1
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000007405 data analysis Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000007773 growth pattern Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005259 measurement Methods 0.000 description 1
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Energy or water supply
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02T—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO TRANSPORTATION
- Y02T90/00—Enabling technologies or technologies with a potential or indirect contribution to GHG emissions mitigation
- Y02T90/10—Technologies relating to charging of electric vehicles
- Y02T90/16—Information or communication technologies improving the operation of electric vehicles
- Y02T90/167—Systems integrating technologies related to power network operation and communication or information technologies for supporting the interoperability of electric or hybrid vehicles, i.e. smartgrids as interface for battery charging of electric vehicles [EV] or hybrid vehicles [HEV]
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S30/00—Systems supporting specific end-user applications in the sector of transportation
- Y04S30/10—Systems supporting the interoperability of electric or hybrid vehicles
- Y04S30/12—Remote or cooperative charging
Landscapes
- Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Economics (AREA)
- Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
- Strategic Management (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Marketing (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
- Quality & Reliability (AREA)
- Development Economics (AREA)
- Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
- Operations Research (AREA)
- Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
- Public Health (AREA)
- Water Supply & Treatment (AREA)
- General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Primary Health Care (AREA)
- Charge And Discharge Circuits For Batteries Or The Like (AREA)
- Electric Propulsion And Braking For Vehicles (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting methods.By collecting, analyzing existing electric bus, bargaining units electric car, near charging station with the relevant parameters such as range society electric car quantity, charge rate, efficiency farther out, construct the load prediction calculation method based on above-mentioned existing vehicle.Newly-increased load forecasting method is constructed based on the premeasuring near new power purchase electric bus, charging station with the social new power purchase electrical automobile quantity of range farther out.Opening type Electric Transit charging station load prediction is carried out on the basis of considering charge loss, standing power consumption rate.The present invention can effectively improve the precision of opening type Electric Transit charging station load prediction, adjust operation plan, optimization unit output, optimization charging modes etc. for power scheduling and provide relatively reliable accurate reference.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to electric automobile charging station load prediction fields, and in particular to a kind of opening type Electric Transit fills
Plant load prediction technique.
Background technique
With the development of the increase of the energy and environmental protection pressure and Vehicular battery and electric drive technology, electric car has been obtained fastly
Speed development.It is necessarily required to establish a large amount of electrically-charging equipment the needs of these electric car emphasis to meet.For Electric Transit foundation
Charging station, carry out to external charging vehicle charging service, and be effectively relieved electrically-charging equipment construction pressure, improve public transport company
A kind of effective ways of benefit.Extensive electric car charging is not only big with load power simultaneously, fluctuation is strong, uncertain
The features such as big, this all brings biggish challenge to the safe operation of power distribution network, Optimized Operation, power flowcontrol etc..Therefore
Carry out the charging station load prediction of opening type Electric Transit to be of great significance.
After electric car is largely popularized, opening type Electric Transit charging station charging load will have randomness it is big,
Intermittent strong the characteristics of waiting impact loads.Huge challenge necessarily is brought to the safe, reliable, efficient operation of power distribution network.Therefore it opens
The method of operation, adjustment can be adjusted not only for power system operation department by opening up the load prediction of opening type Electric Transit charging station
System reserve capacity, optimization unit output etc. improve foundation.Can also effectively improve outer opening Electric Transit charging station power supply with
And safety, the economy and reliability of power distribution network operation.
Domestic and foreign scholars have carried out a large amount of research to electric automobile load prediction at present, but main research concentrate on from when
Between, the ride characteristic of space angle research electric car carry out the charging load prediction of electric car.But it yet there are no in document
The opening type Electric Transit charging station charging load of with good grounds opening type Electric Transit charging station charging characteristics expansion
The research of aspect, the research of this aspect is also in blank.
Summary of the invention
The present invention provides a kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station charging load forecasting methods, have fully considered
It is electronic to effectively improve tradition for the charging feature for all kinds of electric vehicles that opening type Electric Transit charging station charges
Caused by automobile charging load forecasting method is as insufficient to the consideration of opening type Electric Transit charging station charging feature
The not high problem of precision of prediction.
The present invention is realized by following technical scheme：
A kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting method, by collect, analyze existing electric bus,
Bargaining units electric car, charging station nearby with range society electric car quantity, charge rate, efficiency relevant parameter farther out, structure
Build the load prediction calculation method based on above-mentioned existing vehicle；Based near new power purchase electric bus, charging station with model farther out
The premeasuring for enclosing social new power purchase electrical automobile quantity constructs newly-increased load forecasting method；Considering charge loss, power consumption rate of standing
On the basis of carry out opening type Electric Transit charging station load prediction.
Preferably, which specifically includes following steps：
Step 1：Collect quantity, the unit power load under amount load-carrying, unit row of existing public transport company's electric vehicle
It sails distance, loading rate, influence coefficient, battery efficiency variation coefficient data；
Step 2：Classified as follows to the type of prediction load：Existing Electric Transit vehicle predicts newly-increased Electric Transit
Nearby nearby prediction is newly-increased for existing social electric vehicle, charging station for vehicle, the use unit electric vehicle with agreement, charging station
Social electric vehicle, from charging station farther out the existing social electric vehicle of range, from the charging station newly-increased society's electricity of horizon prediction farther out
Motor-car；
Step 3：On the basis of considering loading rate, operating range, battery efficiency variation, carries out existing Electric Transit and fill
Electric load prediction；
Step 4：Considering that public transport company's planning, fiscal capacity, government subsidy policy, electric car on-road efficiency are multi-party
Face carries out public transport company and increases the prediction that electric vehicle increases load newly newly on the basis of ringing；
Step 5：Bargaining units electric vehicle charging load is predicted；
Step 6：To the existing electric vehicle of society and predict that the charging load of newly-increased vehicle is predicted；
Step 7：It is total that opening type Electric Transit charging station is carried out when considering charging equipment loss and station electricity consumption
The prediction of power load；
Step 8：By the data constantly acquired, above-mentioned various predictions are optimized perfect, determines optimal prediction mould
Type and method.
Preferably, existing Electric Transit charging load prediction is carried out, prediction technique is as follows：
In formula：N is the quantity of the existing electric bus to charge in the opening type Electric Transit charging station；
pe·iFor unit power load power of i-th electric bus under amount load；
siFor the operating range of i-th electric bus at the appointed time；
γiFor i-th electric bus loading rate, i.e. the ratio between real load and rated load at the appointed time；
Δ α is the coefficient that i-th electric bus is influenced by weather at the appointed time；
Δ β is i-th electric bus at the appointed time by the coefficient of season image, mainly when use with air-conditioning
Between, power factor (PF) it is related；
τiIt is i-th electric bus battery efficiency with using time change coefficient；
te·iFor the specified runing time that i-th electric bus battery efficiency is constant.
Preferably,
Preferably, newly-increased Electric Transit charging load is predicted, prediction technique is as follows：
In formula：M is the estimated newly-increased power-up in the next predicted time that the opening type Electric Transit charging station charges
The quantity of electric bus；
kgElectronic public affairs are newly increased to be estimated in the next predicted time that the opening type Electric Transit charging station charges
Hand over the confidence level of vehicle quantity；kgPlanning, financial capability, government subsidy with public transport company, benefit, environmental protection, people's trip requirements
Many factors are related.
Preferably, the charging load of other bargaining units is predicted, prediction technique is as follows：
In formula：ηiFor the utilization charge rate of i-th bargaining units charging vehicle；
L is the other next predicted times of bargaining units electric car to charge in the opening type Electric Transit charging station
In the estimated quantity for newly increasing electric bus.
Preferably, the charging load of the existing electric vehicle of society and the newly-increased vehicle of prediction is predicted, prediction side
Method is as follows：
p4=(p4·1+Δp4·1)·η4·1+(p4·2+Δp4·2)·η4·2
In formula：p4·1Nearby has the total charge power of social charging vehicle for opening type Electric Transit charging station；Δ
p4·1For the total charge power of the newly-increased social charging vehicle of next predetermined period near opening type Electric Transit charging station；
η4·1Charging is utilized using the charging station for charging vehicle social near opening type Electric Transit charging station
Rate；
p4·2For opening type Electric Transit charging station, range has the total charge power of social charging vehicle farther out；
Δp4·2For opening type Electric Transit charging station, the newly-increased social charging vehicle of the next predetermined period of range is total farther out
Charge power；
η4·2For opening type Electric Transit charging station, range society charging vehicle is filled using the utilization of the charging station farther out
Electric rate.
Preferably, predict that the total power load of opening type Electric Transit charging station, prediction technique are as follows：
In formula：δ is opening type Electric Transit charging station gross efficiency；
kcFor opening type Electric Transit charging station station power consumption rate.
Preferably,
In formula：δ is charging station gross efficiency；δjFor the efficiency value of jth platform charging pile；The sum of charging pile in T charging station.
Preferably, δjFor the efficiency value of jth platform charging pile, wherein the value with the design structure of the charging, because being known as
It closes, takes 0.85~0.9.
Beneficial effect of the present invention：
The present invention can effectively improve the precision of opening type Electric Transit charging station load prediction, be Electrical
Dispatching adjustment operation plan, optimization unit output, optimization charging modes etc. provide relatively reliable accurate reference.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is implementation flow chart of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is moon electricity demand forecasting result figure compared with actual value；
Fig. 3 is daily power consumption prediction result figure compared with actual value.
Specific embodiment
Below in conjunction with attached drawing, by specific embodiment, the present invention is further illustrated.
As shown in Figure 1, being filled the present invention provides a kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station charging load forecasting method
Divide the charging feature for considering all kinds of electric vehicles to charge in opening type Electric Transit charging station, effectively improves
Traditional electric car charging load forecasting method is not due to filling the consideration of opening type Electric Transit charging station charging feature
Point and caused by the not high problem of precision of prediction.Its implementing procedure is as shown in Figure 1：
Concrete methods of realizing is as follows：
(1) collect quantity, the unit power load under amount load-carrying, the unit traveling of existing public transport company's electric vehicle away from
From, loading rate, influence the data such as coefficient, battery efficiency variation coefficient.
(2) classified as follows to the type of prediction load：Existing Electric Transit vehicle predicts newly-increased electric bus
, nearby existing social electric vehicle, charging station nearby predict newly-increased society for the use unit electric vehicle with agreement, charging station
Can electric vehicle, from charging station farther out range (to plan service radius as foundation, when the distance for being greater than its 2 times and the above radius
When think be it is relatively remote, calculated apart from 3~5 kilometers of charging station when without planning service radius according to being greater than) existing society's electricity
Motor-car, from charging station, horizon prediction increases social electric vehicle newly farther out.
(3) on the basis of considering Electric Transit loading rate, operating range, battery efficiency variation, carry out having electronic public affairs
Hand over charging load prediction；Shown in its prediction technique such as formula (1)：
N is the quantity of the existing electric bus to charge in the opening type Electric Transit charging station；
pe·iFor unit power load power of i-th electric bus under amount load；
siFor the operating range of i-th electric bus at the appointed time；
γiFor i-th electric bus loading rate, i.e. the ratio between real load and rated load at the appointed time；
Δ α is the coefficient that i-th electric bus is influenced by weather at the appointed time；
Δ β is i-th electric bus at the appointed time by the coefficient of season image, mainly when use with air-conditioning
Between, the factors such as power it is related；
τiIt is i-th electric bus battery efficiency with using time change coefficient；
te·iFor the specified runing time that i-th electric bus battery efficiency is constant.
(4) considering the various aspects such as public transport company's planning, fiscal capacity, government subsidy policy, electric car on-road efficiency
Public transport company is carried out on the basis of influence increases the prediction that electric vehicle increases load newly newly；Shown in its prediction technique such as formula (3).
M is to expect to newly increase Electric Transit in the next predicted time that the opening type Electric Transit charging station charges
The quantity of vehicle；
kgElectronic public affairs are newly increased to be estimated in the next predicted time that the opening type Electric Transit charging station charges
Hand over the confidence level of vehicle quantity；kgPlanning, financial capability, government subsidy with public transport company, benefit, environmental protection, people's trip requirements
Equal many factors are related.
(5) bargaining units electric vehicle charging load is predicted；Shown in its prediction technique such as formula (4).
ηiFor the utilization charge rate of i-th bargaining units charging vehicle；
L is the other next predicted times of bargaining units electric car to charge in the opening type Electric Transit charging station
In the estimated quantity for newly increasing electric bus.
(6) the charging load of the existing electric vehicle of society and the newly-increased vehicle of prediction is predicted；Its prediction technique such as formula
(5) shown in.
p4=(p4·1+Δp4·1)·η4·1+(p4·2+Δp4·2)·η4·2 (5)
p4·1Nearby has the total charge power of social charging vehicle for opening type Electric Transit charging station；
Δp4·1It always charges for the newly-increased social charging vehicle of next predetermined period near opening type Electric Transit charging station
Power；
η4·1Charging is utilized using the charging station for charging vehicle social near opening type Electric Transit charging station
Rate；
p4·2For opening type Electric Transit charging station, range has the total charge power of social charging vehicle farther out；
Δp4·2For opening type Electric Transit charging station, the newly-increased social charging vehicle of the next predetermined period of range is total farther out
Charge power；
η4·2For opening type Electric Transit charging station, range society charging vehicle is filled using the utilization of the charging station farther out
Electric rate.
(7) the total electricity consumption of opening type Electric Transit charging station is carried out when considering charging equipment loss and station electricity consumption
The prediction of load；Shown in its prediction technique such as formula (6).
In formula：δ is opening type Electric Transit charging station gross efficiency, is calculated as shown in formula (7) in detail；
δ is charging station gross efficiency in formula；δjFor the efficiency value (design structure etc. of the value and the charging of jth platform charging pile
Factor is related, and generally desirable 0.85~0.9)；The sum of charging pile in T charging station.
kcFor opening type Electric Transit charging station station power consumption rate；
(8) by the data that constantly acquire, above-mentioned various predictions are optimized it is perfect, determine optimal prediction model with
Method.
Load includes：1, the existing electric automobile load of public transport company is (with the quantity of Electric Transit, power, operating range, day
The factors such as gas, vehicle condition, battery efficiency are related)；2, public transport company predict increased electric automobile load (with increase electronic public affairs newly
The factors such as quantity, power, charging modes, operating range, weather, vehicle condition, the battery efficiency of friendship are related；With government subsidy,
Benefit, Corporate development planning etc. are related)；3, other units are fixed uses load and its variation；4, other vehicles of society (with
Nearby society's electric car owning amount, frequency of use, laws of use, charging modes, from now on growth pattern, ease of use, valence
The increment of lattice, electric car from now on)；5, other randomnesss charging loads.
1, has Electric Transit charging load prediction
N is the quantity of the existing electric bus to charge in the opening type Electric Transit charging station；
pe·iFor unit power load power of i-th electric bus under amount load；
siFor the operating range of i-th electric bus at the appointed time；
γiFor i-th electric bus loading rate, i.e. the ratio between real load and rated load at the appointed time；
Δ α is the coefficient that i-th electric bus is influenced by weather at the appointed time；
Δ β is i-th electric bus at the appointed time by the coefficient of season image, mainly when use with air-conditioning
Between, the factors such as power it is related；
τiIt is i-th electric bus battery efficiency with using time change coefficient；
te·iFor the specified runing time that i-th electric bus battery efficiency is constant；
T is predicted time；
Above-mentioned related coefficient can be obtained by producer and Primary Stage Data analysis.
2, newly-increased Electric Transit charging load prediction is predicted
M is to expect to newly increase Electric Transit in the next predicted time that the opening type Electric Transit charging station charges
The quantity of vehicle；
kgElectronic public affairs are newly increased to be estimated in the next predicted time that the opening type Electric Transit charging station charges
Hand over the confidence level of vehicle quantity；kgPlanning, financial capability, government subsidy with public transport company, benefit, environmental protection, people's trip requirements
Equal many factors are related.
3, the firm demand prediction of other bargaining units
With certain amount electric car, but the unit without concentrating electrically-charging equipment.By way of related protocol with it is right
Outer style of opening Electric Transit charging station establishes the prediction of the fixed charging load using agreement；
ηiFor the utilization charge rate of i-th bargaining units charging vehicle.
4, other social Vehicular charging load predictions
W4=[(p4·1+Δp4·1)·η4·1+(p4·2+Δp4·2)·η4·2]·T
p4·1Nearby has the total charge power of social charging vehicle for opening type Electric Transit charging station；
Δp4·1It always charges for the newly-increased social charging vehicle of next predetermined period near opening type Electric Transit charging station
Power；
η4·1Charging is utilized using the charging station for charging vehicle social near opening type Electric Transit charging station
Rate；
p4·2For opening type Electric Transit charging station, range has the total charge power of social charging vehicle farther out；
Δp4·2For opening type Electric Transit charging station, the newly-increased social charging vehicle of the next predetermined period of range is total farther out
Charge power；
η4·2For opening type Electric Transit charging station, range society charging vehicle is filled using the utilization of the charging station farther out
Electric rate.
5, load is always predicted
δ is the proportion of goods damageds of the total power load of opening type Electric Transit charging station；
kcFor opening type Electric Transit charging station station power consumption rate.
Instance analysis and verifying：
1, basic condition brief introduction：
Certain public transport charging station has quick charge station 6, charging pile rated power 250kW.Charging pile 6 at a slow speed, charging pile
Rated power 7kW.Existing pure electric bus 26, the length of service 6 less than 8 months, battery capacity converts into 80kWh.12
1.5 years 65kWh, 10 2.5 years 65kWh.
And, the measurement of partial data is analyzed to be counted as follows by collection to historical data upper one year, device parameter
According to：
(1) rated power 250kW charging pile efficiency is 0.87；Rated power 7kW charging pile efficiency is 0.9；
(2) bus station's other equipment in addition to charging pile electricity consumption be averaged power consumption rate be 0.12；
(3) charging station transformer and line loss rate are 5.8%；
(4) bus is in crush load rate average out to 114.2% on and off duty, and other 78.6%；
(5) similarity condition next Saturday is working day average load 0.82, and Sunday is the 0.76 of working day average load；
(6) bus monthly average travels 4565 kilometers；
(7) battery efficiency is related with traveling total distance, and bus is converted into since daily operating range is relatively fixed
For the time, t can use by the comparison of same vehicle, time different years of going the same waye·iIt is 1.2 years；
(8) last year bargaining units is 8 total；Rated power is respectively annual moon electricity consumption 3124kwh on 8；This year is new
Increase 3；
(9) bus winter air-conditioning annual December 1 is to opening on March 15, each moon electricity consumption increment rate is respectively 37%,
65%, 57%, 15%；The summer air-conditioning open hour are to arrive September 30th annual May 16, and each moon electricity consumption increment rate is respectively
12%, 35%, 44%, 15%,；
(10) 6~August of meteorological effect coefficient part is 0.05, and other months can be ignored；
(11) other public vehicles charging proportions are 0.6%, and nearby and its seldom compared with the remote vehicle that increases, can
It ignores；
(12) weather influence factor is with reference to the following weather forecast on the 15th in predicting day.
2, prediction result：
(1) Fig. 2 is moon electricity demand forecasting result figure compared with actual value.Moon load prediction and actual value (in January, 2017
1-2017 December, unit/kw.h)
(2) Fig. 3 is daily power consumption prediction result figure compared with actual value.Daily load prediction and actual value (in March, 2018
The 1-3 month 14, unit/kw.h)
By the visible this method of above-mentioned prediction precision of prediction with higher.Due to short time content electric car charging it is general
Rate and charge type have bigger uncertainty, therefore its error has a degree of increasing when doing short time prediction
Greatly.But influence, and optimization charging modes etc. of the precision of prediction of this method for analysis charging load to power distribution network all have
There is higher reference value.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting method, it is characterised in that：
By collecting, analyzing existing electric bus, bargaining units electric car, it is electronic with range society farther out near charging station
Automobile quantity, charge rate, efficiency relevant parameter construct the load prediction calculation method based on above-mentioned existing vehicle；
It is constructed based on the premeasuring near new power purchase electric bus, charging station with the social new power purchase electrical automobile quantity of range farther out
Newly-increased load forecasting method；
Opening type Electric Transit charging station load prediction is carried out on the basis of considering charge loss, standing power consumption rate.
2. a kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：
The prediction technique specifically includes following steps：
Step 1：Collect quantity, the unit power load under amount load-carrying, the unit traveling of existing public transport company's electric vehicle away from
From, loading rate, influence coefficient, battery efficiency variation coefficient data；
Step 2：Classified as follows to the type of prediction load：Existing Electric Transit vehicle predicts newly-increased electric bus
, nearby existing social electric vehicle, charging station nearby predict newly-increased society for the use unit electric vehicle with agreement, charging station
Can electric vehicle, from charging station farther out the existing social electric vehicle of range, from charging station, the newly-increased society of horizon prediction is electronic farther out
Vehicle；
Step 3：On the basis of considering loading rate, operating range, battery efficiency variation, it is negative to carry out existing Electric Transit charging
Lotus prediction；
Step 4：Considering public transport company's planning, fiscal capacity, government subsidy policy, the multi-party face of electric car on-road efficiency
Public transport company is carried out on the basis of sound increases the prediction that electric vehicle increases load newly newly；
Step 5：Bargaining units electric vehicle charging load is predicted；
Step 6：To the existing electric vehicle of society and predict that the charging load of newly-increased vehicle is predicted；
Step 7：The total electricity consumption of opening type Electric Transit charging station is carried out when considering charging equipment loss and station electricity consumption
The prediction of load；
Step 8：By the data constantly acquired, above-mentioned various predictions are optimized it is perfect, determine optimal prediction model with
Method.
3. a kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that：
Existing Electric Transit charging load prediction is carried out, prediction technique is as follows：
In formula：N is the quantity of the existing electric bus to charge in the opening type Electric Transit charging station；
pe·iFor unit power load power of i-th electric bus under amount load；
siFor the operating range of i-th electric bus at the appointed time；
γiFor i-th electric bus loading rate, i.e. the ratio between real load and rated load at the appointed time；
Δ α is the coefficient that i-th electric bus is influenced by weather at the appointed time；
Δ β be i-th electric bus at the appointed time by the coefficient of season image, mainly with air-conditioning use time, function
Rate factor is related；
τiIt is i-th electric bus battery efficiency with using time change coefficient；
te·iFor the specified runing time that i-th electric bus battery efficiency is constant.
4. a kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting method according to claim 3, it is characterised in that：
5. a kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that：
Predict newly-increased Electric Transit charging load, prediction technique is as follows：
In formula：M is to expect to newly increase electronic public affairs in the next predicted time that the opening type Electric Transit charging station charges
Hand over the quantity of vehicle；
kgElectric bus number is newly increased to be estimated in the next predicted time that the opening type Electric Transit charging station charges
The confidence level of amount；kgPlanning, financial capability, government subsidy with public transport company, benefit, environmental protection, people's trip requirements it is a variety of because
It is known as pass.
6. a kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that：
Predict the charging load of other bargaining units, prediction technique is as follows：
In formula：ηiFor the utilization charge rate of i-th bargaining units charging vehicle；
L is pre- in other next predicted times of bargaining units electric car that the opening type Electric Transit charging station charges
Meter newly increases the quantity of electric bus.
7. a kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that：
To the existing electric vehicle of society and predict that the charging load of newly-increased vehicle predicts that prediction technique is as follows：
p4=(p4·1+Δp4·1)·η4·1+(p4·2+Δp4·2)·η4·2
In formula：p4·1Nearby has the total charge power of social charging vehicle for opening type Electric Transit charging station；Δp4·1For
The total charge power of the newly-increased social charging vehicle of next predetermined period near opening type Electric Transit charging station；
η4·1The utilization charge rate of the charging station is utilized for charging vehicle social near opening type Electric Transit charging station；
p4·2For opening type Electric Transit charging station, range has the total charge power of social charging vehicle farther out；
Δp4·2For opening type Electric Transit charging station, the newly-increased social charging vehicle of the next predetermined period of range always charges farther out
Power；
η4·2For opening type Electric Transit charging station, range society charging vehicle utilizes charging using the charging station farther out
Rate.
8. a kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that：
Predict that the total power load of opening type Electric Transit charging station, prediction technique are as follows：
In formula：δ is opening type Electric Transit charging station gross efficiency；
kcFor opening type Electric Transit charging station station power consumption rate.
9. a kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting method according to claim 8, it is characterised in that：
In formula：δ is charging station gross efficiency；δjFor the efficiency value of jth platform charging pile；The sum of charging pile in T charging station.
10. a kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting method according to claim 9, feature exist
In：
δjFor the efficiency value of jth platform charging pile, wherein the value is related with the design structure of the charging, factor, takes 0.85~0.9.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810487158.4A CN108932558B (en) | 2018-05-18 | 2018-05-18 | Load prediction method for externally-open type electric bus charging station |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810487158.4A CN108932558B (en) | 2018-05-18 | 2018-05-18 | Load prediction method for externally-open type electric bus charging station |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN108932558A true CN108932558A (en) | 2018-12-04 |
| CN108932558B CN108932558B (en) | 2021-09-28 |
Family
ID=64448953
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810487158.4A Active CN108932558B (en) | 2018-05-18 | 2018-05-18 | Load prediction method for externally-open type electric bus charging station |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN108932558B (en) |
Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109711621A (en) * | 2018-12-27 | 2019-05-03 | 浙江华云信息科技有限公司 | The industrial park load forecasting method combined based on discriminant analysis and support vector machines |
| CN114282377A (en) * | 2021-12-28 | 2022-04-05 | 国网四川省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Electric vehicle short-term charging load prediction method considering meteorological factors |
| CN116862044A (en) * | 2023-05-23 | 2023-10-10 | 隆瑞三优新能源汽车科技有限公司 | Method, device, medium and equipment for predicting charging power load of bus charging station |
Citations (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103065199A (en) * | 2012-12-18 | 2013-04-24 | 广东电网公司电力科学研究院 | Electric vehicle charging station load forecasting method |
| CN103400203A (en) * | 2013-07-19 | 2013-11-20 | 西安交通大学 | Electric vehicle charging station load prediction method based on support vector machine |
| WO2017028333A1 (en) * | 2015-08-19 | 2017-02-23 | 天津大学 | Planning method for highway electric vehicle fast charging stations |
| CN107122856A (en) * | 2017-04-26 | 2017-09-01 | 天津天大求实电力新技术股份有限公司 | Space saturation load forecasting method under new situation |
| CN107392360A (en) * | 2017-07-01 | 2017-11-24 | 广东电网发展研究院有限责任公司 | A kind of planing method of electric bus charging station |
| CN107609670A (en) * | 2017-08-10 | 2018-01-19 | 浙江工业大学 | One kind is based on copula algorithm electric automobile charging station load forecasting methods |
-
2018
- 2018-05-18 CN CN201810487158.4A patent/CN108932558B/en active Active
Patent Citations (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103065199A (en) * | 2012-12-18 | 2013-04-24 | 广东电网公司电力科学研究院 | Electric vehicle charging station load forecasting method |
| CN103400203A (en) * | 2013-07-19 | 2013-11-20 | 西安交通大学 | Electric vehicle charging station load prediction method based on support vector machine |
| WO2017028333A1 (en) * | 2015-08-19 | 2017-02-23 | 天津大学 | Planning method for highway electric vehicle fast charging stations |
| CN107122856A (en) * | 2017-04-26 | 2017-09-01 | 天津天大求实电力新技术股份有限公司 | Space saturation load forecasting method under new situation |
| CN107392360A (en) * | 2017-07-01 | 2017-11-24 | 广东电网发展研究院有限责任公司 | A kind of planing method of electric bus charging station |
| CN107609670A (en) * | 2017-08-10 | 2018-01-19 | 浙江工业大学 | One kind is based on copula algorithm electric automobile charging station load forecasting methods |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
|---|
| 黄其新等: "电动汽车充电负荷预测的研究", 《机电信息》 * |
Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109711621A (en) * | 2018-12-27 | 2019-05-03 | 浙江华云信息科技有限公司 | The industrial park load forecasting method combined based on discriminant analysis and support vector machines |
| CN114282377A (en) * | 2021-12-28 | 2022-04-05 | 国网四川省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Electric vehicle short-term charging load prediction method considering meteorological factors |
| CN114282377B (en) * | 2021-12-28 | 2023-06-06 | 国网四川省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Prediction method of short-term charging load of electric automobile considering meteorological factors |
| CN116862044A (en) * | 2023-05-23 | 2023-10-10 | 隆瑞三优新能源汽车科技有限公司 | Method, device, medium and equipment for predicting charging power load of bus charging station |
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN108932558B (en) | 2021-09-28 |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| US11878602B2 (en) | Method for establishing active distribution network planning model considering location and capacity determination of electric vehicle charging station | |
| CN110895638B (en) | Active power distribution network model establishment method considering electric vehicle charging station site selection and volume fixing | |
| CN103241130B (en) | Energy management method and system for electric bus charging and swap station | |
| CN103915869B (en) | A kind of Intelligent charging system of electric automobile based on mobile device and method | |
| Tirunagari et al. | Reaping the benefits of smart electric vehicle charging and vehicle-to-grid technologies: Regulatory, policy and technical aspects | |
| CN112734098B (en) | Power distribution network power dispatching method and system based on source-load-network balance | |
| Blake et al. | Optimization of distributed energy resources in an industrial microgrid | |
| CN112183882B (en) | Intelligent charging station charging optimization method based on electric vehicle quick charging requirement | |
| Ivanova et al. | Coordinated charging of electric vehicles connected to a net-metered PV parking lot | |
| CN108932558A (en) | A kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting method | |
| García-Vázquez et al. | Feasibility analysis of a hybrid renewable energy system with vehicle-to-home operations for a house in off-grid and grid-connected applications | |
| Khezri et al. | Impact of optimal sizing of wind turbine and battery energy storage for a grid-connected household with/without an electric vehicle | |
| CN108711878A (en) | Consider the photovoltaic plant polymorphic type component capacity collocation method of power producing characteristics | |
| Liu et al. | Charging private electric vehicles solely by photovoltaics: A battery-free direct-current microgrid with distributed charging strategy | |
| Ivanova et al. | Techno‐economic feasibility of a photovoltaic‐equipped plug‐in electric vehicle public parking lot with coordinated charging | |
| Zheng et al. | Optimal dispatch for reversible solid oxide cell-based hydrogen/electric vehicle aggregator via stimuli-responsive charging decision estimation | |
| CN114022046A (en) | Comprehensive energy system optimal scheduling method considering traffic balance | |
| CN110443406B (en) | Layered planning method for electric vehicle charging facility and distributed power supply | |
| Lassila et al. | Electric cars as part of electricity distribution–who pays, who benefits? | |
| CN113052450B (en) | Urban energy Internet planning method suitable for electric energy substitution development strategy | |
| Ollas et al. | Evaluating the role of solar photovoltaic and battery storage in supporting electric aviation and vehicle infrastructure at Visby Airport | |
| Kokchang et al. | Economic feasibility of hybrid solar-powered charging station with battery energy storage system in Thailand | |
| CN114006390A (en) | Electric vehicle charging load participation power grid interaction simulation method and system | |
| CN112993985A (en) | Micro-grid multi-target planning method considering uncertainty | |
| Grashorn | Degree of self-sufficiency of an electrified road coupled to renewable energy production: A case-study on the European road E39 |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant |