CN107122856A - Space saturation load forecasting method under new situation - Google Patents
Space saturation load forecasting method under new situation Download PDFInfo
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- CN107122856A CN107122856A CN201710282285.6A CN201710282285A CN107122856A CN 107122856 A CN107122856 A CN 107122856A CN 201710282285 A CN201710282285 A CN 201710282285A CN 107122856 A CN107122856 A CN 107122856A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of space saturation load forecasting method under new situation：Cell total load is predicted using cell load density index method；The electric automobile recoverable amount in the region to be measured non-coming year is determined according to region to be measured future GDP, population size, electric automobile permeability, road length and private car owning amount；Electric automobile is classified, all types of electric automobile proportions, the type of charging and conversion electric facility and quantity is determined；Part throttle characteristics to all types of electric automobiles is analyzed, and respectively obtains working day electric automobile load and festivals or holidays electric automobile load, and the greater is electric automobile total load in region to be measured；It is assigned to after electric automobile total load is superimposed with cell total load in each block of cells.The present invention realizes electric automobile load prediction and the target for cooperateing with optimization is predicted with urban power load, has larger aid decision meaning to the behavior such as urban power distribution network construction and the planning of electric charging station, layout, enlarging.
Description
Technical field
It is the space saturation load forecasting being related under a kind of new situation in particular the present invention relates to field of distribution network
Method.
Background technology
Because environment, energy problem become increasingly conspicuous, as the representative of clean energy vehicle, electric automobile is obtained in recent years
Fast development, charging load has also tentatively embodied statistical nature.It is electronic with the constantly improve of electrokinetic cell and vehicle technology
The scale application of automobile expands day by day, it would be possible to which each side such as operational management, scheduling planning to power network produces certain
Negative effect.Charging electric vehicle load has very strong randomness on Annual distribution, when the electric automobile of certain scale exists
When the original load peak of distribution network system is started to charge up, electric automobile load will add with the original load Check of system, cause region to match somebody with somebody
There is the situation on peak plus peak in power network, it will the operation to system equipment is adversely affected.Secondly, charging electric vehicle is born
Lotus is same in spatial distribution to have very strong randomness, may if charging load is assembled in some high density loads area
Some areas electric energy can be caused in short supply, the problems such as local distribution facility overloads.
In this context, signature analysis and prediction are carried out to charging electric vehicle load, is on the one hand conducive to electric automobile
The economical operation and energy management of charging station, and provide reference frame for urban infrastructure planning construction etc.；On the other hand have
Beneficial to Optimal Power Flow Problems, rational dispatching by power grids, and to power market transaction and generating set optimum combination research etc.
There is profound significance.
Urban power load prediction is the element task in urban power network planning, accurately whether directly affects Electric Power Network Planning
Quality good or not.Load prediction job requirement has very strong science, although the method for load prediction has a variety of, by institute
The data needed are difficult to obtain or because forecast model has inadaptability, available for a certain physical planning region
Forecasting Methodology it is not a lot, the prediction of load level particularly at a specified future date.
It is to use cell load density index method currently for distant view year saturation load forecasting main method.Urban planning portion
Door provides relatively detailed plan for land, so that load prediction work can be carried out with more specific, partly
The information such as plot property, construction area, the building composition in area are more detailed, and load prediction at a specified future date is referred to cell load density
Carried out based on mark method.Cell load density index method is the land character according to each plot in planning region, using with other regional classes
The method that the mode of ratio determines load.This method is according to domestic and international building sides of the city respective cell on an equal basis in the main historical stage
Product load density (W/m2) calculated, the load of each block of cells is predicted respectively, is aggregated into cell total load：
In formula:L is cell total load：liFor the load density target of heterogeneity land used block of cells；SiFor the face of block of cells
(load density target is then construction area if building load density to product；Load density target is close if taking up an area load
Degree, then be floor space)；T is that (investigation daily load curve is got simultaneity factor, is typically taken as 0.7).
But it is not by the charging load of electric automobile that above-mentioned traditional distant view year saturation load forecasting, which has subject matter,
Take into account, after electric automobile large-scale promotion application, substantial amounts of charging electric vehicle load will be inevitably to region
Overall load causes certain influence, and consequence is exactly to cause region entirety predicted load less than normal, and most direct result is exactly to the later stage
The planning operation of power distribution network is produced and had a strong impact on, and causes distribution network construction can not meet load growth requirement.
Electric automobile electric charging station is used as the organic component of power network, the meaning of electric automobile load prediction, one side
It is for Charge Management and the scheduling of regional power grid energy provide decision-making foundation in order in station, is stable operation and the economy of power distribution network
Sex service；Further aspect is that theoretical and data supporting is provided for behaviors such as the planning of electric charging station, layout, enlargings, to adapt to
The prospect of electric automobile future large-scale commercial applications operation.
The content of the invention
The invention aims to overcome deficiency of the prior art, there is provided the space saturation loading under a kind of new situation
Forecasting Methodology, realizes electric automobile load prediction and the target for cooperateing with optimization is predicted with urban power load, to urban power distribution network
The behavior such as construction and planning, layout, the enlarging of electric charging station has larger aid decision meaning.
The purpose of the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions.
Space saturation load forecasting method under the new situation of the present invention, comprises the following steps：
Step one, the load of each block of cells is predicted using cell load density index method respectively, and then be aggregated into small
Area's total load；
Step 2, according to region to be measured future GDP, population size, electric automobile permeability, road length and private car
Owning amount determines the electric automobile recoverable amount in the region to be measured non-coming year；
Step 3, classifies to electric automobile, determines all types of electric automobile proportions, obtains all types of electronic vapour
The recoverable amount of car, determines the type and quantity of charging and conversion electric facility；
Step 4, the part throttle characteristics to all types of electric automobiles is analyzed, and respectively obtains working day electric automobile load
With festivals or holidays electric automobile load, the two is compared, and the greater is electric automobile total load in region to be measured；
Step 5, the electric automobile total load in step 4 is superimposed with the cell total load in step one, using from upper
Down the method for salary distribution, is assigned in each block of cells, obtains the load density target of various types of properties land used block of cells in region to be measured,
The saturation loading in region to be measured is obtained using cell load density index method.
Electric automobile recoverable amount described in step 2 is calculated according to procedure below：
lnYt=β0+β1lnX1t+β2lnX2t+ut
Y*=Yt×P
Wherein, YtRepresent the car owning amount in region to be measured, X1tRepresent the regional GDP per capita in region to be measured, X2tTable
Show the road length in region to be measured, utRepresent Disturbance, β0、β1、β2Represent amendment constant, Y*Represent that electric automobile is possessed
Amount, P represents electric automobile permeability.
The calculating process on working day electric automobile load described in step 4：
Working day electric automobile load=bus electric charging station load+taxi electric charging station load
+ disperse charging pile load+exclusive charging pile load；
Charge load+need to fill when electricity after all types of electric charging stations or charging pile load=mono- day terminate in above formula
Electric load+the load that charged when charging of having ready conditions.
The calculating process of festivals or holidays electric automobile load described in step 4：
Festivals or holidays electric automobile load=bus electric charging station load+taxi electric charging station load
+ disperse charging pile load+exclusive charging pile load；
Charge load+need to fill when electricity after all types of electric charging stations or charging pile load=mono- day terminate in above formula
Electric load+the load that charged when charging of having ready conditions.
After electric automobile total load is superimposed with cell total load in step 5, according to the area of all kinds of block of cells, it can obtain
All kinds of block of cells loads are obtained, by the spatial distribution of all types of electric automobile loads and the land used classified types phase in urban planning
With reference to determining the weight relationship of all types of electric automobile loads distribution.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effect that technical scheme is brought is：
The present invention provides relatively detailed plan for land according to urban planning department, according to going through for charging electric vehicle
History load data changing rule, it is considered to the spatial and temporal distributions of electric automobile load, it is established that characterize the mathematical modulo of load change rule
Type, recycles the model to be predicted, and is combined with the specific land use class in plan for land, it is determined that in all kinds of land characters
Load index, in conjunction with cell load density index method, obtain the overall load in region, realize electric automobile load pre-
Survey the target for cooperateing with optimization with cell load density index method.The method can improve the prediction essence of charging electric vehicle load
Degree and the credibility of prediction, and it is high-precision predict the outcome for making rational planning for, save related electrically-charging equipment construction cost and electricity
Net safe operation all has a very big significance, and load prediction results meet the future urban development positioning of lattice region, with stronger
Practicality.
Embodiment
To make the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, further is made to embodiment of the present invention below
It is described in detail on ground.
Space saturation load forecasting method under the new situation of the present invention, according to region future GDP, population size and electronic
Automobile permeability determines the electric automobile recoverable amount in the non-coming year, and the difference according to electric automobile type and charging modes obtains all kinds of
The recoverable amount of type electric automobile, and the part throttle characteristics of all types of electric automobiles is analyzed, with obtaining working day and festivals or holidays
The electric automobile total load in area；Finally using the method for salary distribution from top to bottom, electric automobile total load is predicted the outcome and born with cell
It is assigned to after lotus superposition in each block of cells, the cell load density containing electric automobile load is obtained, using cell load density
Index method obtains saturation loading, it is to avoid the drawbacks of traditional load forecasting method is free of electric automobile load.
First, the load of each block of cells is predicted respectively using cell load density index method, and then it is total to be aggregated into cell
Load.
Load classification is carried out according to regional planning land used, and heterogeneity land used block of cells is carried out according to land character drawing
Point.Method according to urban planning authority's land character classification is classified to load, respectively trade financing, inhabitation, administration
Office, entertainment, harbour, storage, logistics, physical culture, health care, education and scientific research, public utility, industry, public friendship
Logical, square and greenery patches., will be in setting for carrying out the deficiency that load classification is caused using urban planning authority's land character classification
The industry characteristic of calmodulin binding domain CaM is made up during all kinds of land character load density targets.
Consider all kinds of land character load density target investigation results and domestic zone similarity load density target is horizontal
To contrast, the load density target of heterogeneity land used block of cells is determined；According to each property land used block of cells load density target
Selection result, carry out power load distributing prediction according to planned land use plot ratio, determine classed load, and counted according to formula (1)
Cell total load.
2nd, possessed according to region to be measured future GDP, population size, electric automobile permeability, road length and private car
Amount determines the electric automobile recoverable amount in the region non-coming year to be measured, the basis predicted as whole electric automobile load.
The owning amount of this consumer goods of automobile is obviously relevant with the economic level in area, therefore introduces with explaining region to be measured
Area's total output value (GDP), both correlations.There is link length to have certain associate with real at the end of each department；With various regions
The length of the highway in area is relevant, therefore introduces explanation Regional Road mileage to be measured, and priori is expected it with car ownership in just
It is related.For regional GDP per capita, road length these indexs, we change to car ownership more concerned with its relative number
Influence, and influence of the Singular variance to model can be reduced after logarithmic transformation, so using following logarithmic model：
lnYt=β0+β1lnX1t+β2lnX2t+ut (2)
Wherein, YtRepresent the car owning amount in region to be measured, unit for；X1tRepresent the area production per capita in region to be measured
Total value, is determined according to regions and areas's total output value to be measured and population size, and unit is member；X2tRepresent the highway in region to be measured
Length, unit is kilometer；utRepresent Disturbance；β0、β1、β2Represent amendment constant.
Yt=-18.76763+1.617396X1t+4.150105X2t+δ (3)
Wherein, δ represents correction factor.
Car owning amount is determined according to region to be measured future GDP, population size and road length, oozed further according to electric automobile
Saturating rate determines the recoverable amount Y of following electric automobile*：
Y*=Yt×P (4)
Wherein, P represents electric automobile permeability.
3rd, according to the charge mode and charge requirement of the use object of electric automobile, purposes and differentiation to electric automobile
Progress classifying and dividing is electric bus, electric taxi, electronic private car, electronic officer's car and environmental sanitation logistic car, is shown in Table 1,
And all types of electric automobile proportions are determined, it can obtain all types of electronic vapour with reference to the electric automobile recoverable amount in region to be measured
The recoverable amount of car.When classifying to electric automobile, the otherness of spatial distribution is embodied.
The electric automobile type of table 1 and proportion
| Type | Proportion |
| Electric bus | 10% |
| Electric taxi | 24% |
| Electronic private car | 54% |
| Electronic officer's car | 5% |
| Environmental sanitation logistic car etc. | 7% |
Charging and conversion electric facility is divided according to charging modes and electric automobile Type division：Bus electric charging station, go out
Hire a car electric charging station, it is intercity fill station, scattered charging pile and exclusive charging pile soon, determine all kinds of charging station single seat peak loads, root
According to the equipping rules of table 2, it is determined that the quantity of required charging and conversion electric facility.
The charging and conversion electric facility of table 2 is classified and equipping rules
4th, electric automobile load Forecasting Methodology possesses the suitable of different time scales due to its principle and the problems such as use
Expenditure and prediction effect, randomness over time and space are larger, and a large amount of charging electric vehicle load accesses will be to electric power
The operation of system produces influence with planning, therefore the load characteristic curve of all types of electric automobiles is analyzed, as electronic
The foundation of automobile overall load prediction.So that electric automobile load prediction is more scientific, reasonable, it is electric automobile more targetedly
The spatial distribution prediction of load provides support.
1st, charging electric vehicle BMAT：Consider the use habit and charging custom of different electric automobiles, such as table 3
With shown in table 4, made a distinction according to two kinds of situations of working day and festivals or holidays, even and if operationally between or festivals or holidays one when
It is interior also to there are different chargings customs to influence larger to integral load.During on weekdays, if for electronic private car owner
Charged after working in one day is terminated, part probably due to electricity reason the work hours charge again, or have exclusive charging pile can be with
Charge at any time, according to investigation, it is determined that proportion in these three cases is respectively 70%, 15% and 15%；And it is false in section
Due to doings during day, charging custom changes a lot, it is necessary to ensure enough electricity, and proportions are adjusted to
30%th, 50% and 20%..
All types of charging electric vehicle behaviors between the date of table 3
All types of charging electric vehicle behaviors during the festivals or holidays of table 4
2nd, electric automobile load is predicted：Respectively obtain working day electric automobile load and festivals or holidays electric automobile load, two
Person is compared, and the greater is electric automobile total load in region to be measured.
2-1 working day electric automobile loads：
Working day electric automobile load=bus electric charging station load+taxi electric charging station load
+ disperse charging pile load+exclusive charging pile load (5)
Wherein, it is electronic private car and electronic officer's car to disperse charging pile corresponding, and corresponding exclusive charging pile is environmental sanitation
Logistic car etc..
In above formula (5), charging load after all types of electric charging stations or charging pile load=mono- day terminate+need electricity
When charging load+have ready conditions charging when charging load (6)
By taking bus as an example：
Bus electric charging station load prediction：
W1=Y*×Xg/Pg×Sg (7)
In formula, W1Represent bus electric charging station load, Y*Represent electric automobile recoverable amount, XgRepresent electric bus institute
Accounting example, PgRepresent that bus electric charging station can accommodate bus quantity, SgRepresent single bus electric charging station peak load.
After one day terminates：
WZ=W1×T1 (8)
In formula, WZTo terminate within one day the load of bus electric charging station under rear charge mode, T1For electric bus-work
Day (after terminating for one day) charge mode ratio.
Need to charge when electricity：
WX=W1×T2 (9)
In formula, WXTo need when electricity bus electric charging station load, T under charge mode2For electric bus-work
Make day (to need to charge when electricity) pattern ratio.
Have ready conditions and charged when charging：
WY=W1×T3 (10)
In formula, WYFor have ready conditions charging when charge mode under bus electric charging station load, T3For electric bus-work
Day when charging (have ready conditions charge) pattern ratio.
2-2 festivals or holidays electric automobile loads：
Festivals or holidays electric automobile load=bus electric charging station load+taxi electric charging station load
+ disperse charging pile load+exclusive charging pile load (11)
Wherein, it is electronic private car and electronic officer's car to disperse charging pile corresponding, and corresponding exclusive charging pile is environmental sanitation
Logistic car etc..
In above formula (5), charging load after all types of electric charging stations or charging pile load=mono- day terminate+need electricity
When charging load+have ready conditions charging when charging load (12)
By taking bus as an example：
Bus electric charging station load prediction：
W2=Y*×Xg/Pg×Sg (13)
In formula, W2Represent bus electric charging station load, Y*Represent electric automobile recoverable amount, XgRepresent electric bus institute
Accounting example, PgRepresent that bus electric charging station can accommodate bus quantity, SgRepresent single bus electric charging station peak load.
After one day terminates：
WZ1=W2×Ta (14)
In formula, WZ1To terminate within one day the load of bus electric charging station under rear charge mode, T1It is false for electric bus-section
Day (after terminating for one day) charge mode ratio.
Need to charge when electricity：
WX1=W2×Tb (15)
In formula, WX1To need when electricity bus electric charging station load, T under charge modebFor electric bus-section
Holiday (needs to charge when electricity) pattern ratio.
Have ready conditions and charged when charging：
WY1=W2×Tc (16)
In formula, WY1For have ready conditions charging when charge mode under bus electric charging station load, TcIt is false for electric bus-section
Day when charging (have ready conditions charge) pattern ratio.
5th, the spatial distribution of all types of electric automobile loads is combined with the land used classified types in urban planning, really
The weight relationship of fixed all types of electric automobile load distributions.After above-mentioned electric automobile total load is superimposed with cell total load, root
According to the area of all kinds of block of cells, according to the distribution principle in table 5, all kinds of block of cells loads can be obtained, using from top to bottom
The method of salary distribution, is assigned in each block of cells, obtains the load density target of various types of properties land used block of cells in region to be measured, uses
Cell load density index method obtains the saturation loading in region to be measured, and then obtains overall load and predict the outcome.
Predicted the outcome according to the recoverable amount of different type electric automobile and obtain following all types of charging and conversion electric facility scales and most
Big load.All types of electric automobile loads are associated with land character, all types of charging piles are corresponding with land-use style to see the table below 5 institutes
Show.
All kinds of charging and conversion electric facilities of table 5 correspondence land-use style
Note：In addition to scattered charging pile is calculated with " construction area ", remaining is calculated with " floor space ".
In summary, by above-mentioned steps, electric automobile load prediction is realized in theory and is referred to cell load density
The target of the collaboration optimization of mark method.This method is easy to operate, workload is small, practical, has largely reached electronic
The spatial and temporal distributions of passenger car, to for making rational planning for, saving related electrically-charging equipment construction cost and electric power netting safe running all has
Very big significance.
Although the function and the course of work to the present invention are described above, the invention is not limited in above-mentioned tool
Body function and the course of work, above-mentioned embodiment be only it is schematical, rather than restricted, this area it is common
Technical staff in the case of present inventive concept and scope of the claimed protection is not departed from, may be used also under the enlightenment of the present invention
To make many forms, these are belonged within the protection of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of space saturation load forecasting method under new situation, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
Step one, the load of each block of cells is predicted respectively using cell load density index method, and then it is total to be aggregated into cell
Load；
Step 2, possesses according to region to be measured future GDP, population size, electric automobile permeability, road length and private car
Amount determines the electric automobile recoverable amount in the region non-coming year to be measured；
Step 3, classifies to electric automobile, determines all types of electric automobile proportions, obtains all types of electric automobiles
Recoverable amount, determines the type and quantity of charging and conversion electric facility；
Step 4, the part throttle characteristics to all types of electric automobiles is analyzed, and respectively obtains working day electric automobile load and section
Holiday electric automobile load, the two is compared, and the greater is electric automobile total load in region to be measured；
Step 5, the electric automobile total load in step 4 is superimposed with the cell total load in step one, using from top to bottom
The method of salary distribution, is assigned in each block of cells, obtains the load density target of various types of properties land used block of cells in region to be measured, uses
Cell load density index method obtains the saturation loading in region to be measured.
2. the space saturation load forecasting method under new situation according to claim 1, it is characterised in that institute in step 2
Electric automobile recoverable amount is stated to be calculated according to procedure below：
lnYt=β0+β1lnX1t+β2lnX2t+ut
Y*=Yt×P
Wherein, YtRepresent the car owning amount in region to be measured, X1tRepresent the regional GDP per capita in region to be measured, X2tExpression is treated
Survey the year end in region has link length, u in facttRepresent Disturbance, β0、β1、β2Represent amendment constant, Y*Represent that electric automobile is protected
The amount of having, P represents electric automobile permeability.
3. the space saturation load forecasting method under new situation according to claim 1, it is characterised in that institute in step 4
State the calculating process of working day electric automobile load：
Working day electric automobile load=bus electric charging station load+taxi electric charging station load
+ disperse charging pile load+exclusive charging pile load；
Charge load+need to fill when electricity after all types of electric charging stations or charging pile load=mono- day terminate in above formula
Electric load+the load that charged when charging of having ready conditions.
4. the space saturation load forecasting method under new situation according to claim 1, it is characterised in that institute in step 4
State the calculating process of festivals or holidays electric automobile load：
Festivals or holidays electric automobile load=bus electric charging station load+taxi electric charging station load
+ disperse charging pile load+exclusive charging pile load；
Charged after all types of electric charging stations or charging pile load=mono- day terminate in above formula load+need electricity when charging it is negative
Lotus+the load that charged when charging of having ready conditions.
5. the space saturation load forecasting method under new situation according to claim 1, it is characterised in that electric in step 5
After electrical automobile total load is superimposed with cell total load, according to the area of all kinds of block of cells, all kinds of block of cells loads can be obtained,
The spatial distribution of all types of electric automobile loads is combined with the land used classified types in urban planning, determined all types of electronic
The weight relationship of car load distribution.
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| CN109177750A (en) * | 2018-09-05 | 2019-01-11 | 华东师范大学 | A kind of colleges and universities' charging pile configuration quantity determines method |
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| CN113435663A (en) * | 2021-07-15 | 2021-09-24 | 国网冀北电力有限公司唐山供电公司 | CNN-LSTM combined load prediction method considering electric vehicle charging load influence |
| CN114118796A (en) * | 2021-11-26 | 2022-03-01 | 天津守中电力科技有限公司 | Planning method for electric vehicle charging facility |
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| CN108932558A (en) * | 2018-05-18 | 2018-12-04 | 国网江苏省电力有限公司徐州供电分公司 | A kind of opening type Electric Transit charging station load forecasting method |
| CN108932558B (en) * | 2018-05-18 | 2021-09-28 | 国网江苏省电力有限公司徐州供电分公司 | Load prediction method for externally-open type electric bus charging station |
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| CN109177750A (en) * | 2018-09-05 | 2019-01-11 | 华东师范大学 | A kind of colleges and universities' charging pile configuration quantity determines method |
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| CN111079966B (en) * | 2018-10-18 | 2022-08-09 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | Generalized load space prediction method and system |
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