CN112446524A - High-power charging configuration method and device - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a high-power charging configuration method and a high-power charging configuration device, wherein the method comprises the following steps: determining configurable high-power charging capacity of a power distribution area according to the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of a load carried by each outgoing line; obtaining a predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in a power distribution area after a preset time; obtaining the probability of using high-power charging by a single user and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging; determining the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area according to the predicted value, the probability and the average power; determining the actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area according to the high-power charging capacity and the high-power charging demand capacity; and determining a high-power charging wiring scheme in the power distribution area according to the actual high-power charging capacity, the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line. The invention can meet the requirement of high-power charging of the electric automobile in the power distribution area and has lower cost.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of charging, in particular to a high-power charging configuration method and a high-power charging configuration device.
Background
With the popularization of electric vehicles, the demand of residential districts on charging piles is increasing day by day, but the load demand of the charging piles is not considered or the demand of the low-power alternating-current charging piles is considered during the construction of the residential districts at present. Most of the charging piles in the current residential area can only meet the requirement that a user is fully charged with an electric automobile after work and before work next day, and the requirement for quick charging of the user is difficult to effectively meet.
The reason for this problem is mainly two, one of which is that the capacity of the current cell is insufficient, and if the capacity-increasing means is used to meet the requirement of high-power fast charging, high-volume primary equipment such as a transformer, a power line and a power distribution cabinet is required to be added; secondly, because of the distribution network of the current cell, a single outgoing line is not enough to support the requirement of high-power charging.
Disclosure of Invention
The present invention is directed to solving, at least to some extent, one of the technical problems in the art described above. Therefore, an object of the present invention is to provide a high-power charging configuration method, which can summarize spare capacity of each outgoing line of a distribution network in a distribution area, so as to meet a requirement of high-power charging of an electric vehicle in the distribution area, and can realize summarization of each outgoing line only by connecting cables, so that the method has the advantages of low investment cost, simple operation, cost saving, and strong applicability.
A second object of the present invention is to provide a high power charging arrangement.
In order to achieve the above object, an embodiment of a first aspect of the present invention provides a high power charging configuration method, including the following steps: determining configurable high-power charging capacity of a power distribution area according to rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and maximum capacity of load carried by each outgoing line; obtaining a predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area after a preset time; obtaining the probability of using high-power charging by a single user and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging; determining the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area according to the predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area after the preset time, the probability of the user using high-power charging and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging; determining the actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area according to the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area and the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area; and determining a high-power charging wiring scheme in the power distribution area according to the actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area, the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line.
According to the high-power charging configuration method of the embodiment of the invention, the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area is determined according to the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line, the predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area after the preset time is obtained, the probability of using the high-power charging by a single user and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging are obtained, the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area is determined according to the predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area after the preset time, the probability of using the high-power charging by the user and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging, the actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area is determined according to the configurable high-power charging, The high-power charging wiring scheme in the distribution area is determined by the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the distribution network in the distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line, so that the surplus capacity of each outgoing line of the distribution network in the distribution area can be summarized, the requirement of high-power charging of electric vehicles in the distribution area is met, the summarizing of each outgoing line is realized only through the connection of cables, the investment cost is low, the operation is simple, the cost can be saved, and the high-power charging wiring scheme has high applicability.
In addition, the high-power charging configuration method proposed according to the above embodiment of the present invention may further have the following additional technical features:
according to an embodiment of the present invention, determining the configurable high-power charging capacity of the distribution area according to the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the distribution network in the distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line specifically includes: calculating the surplus capacity of each outgoing line according to the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line; determining the number of available outgoing lines according to the surplus capacity of each outgoing line and the power of a single charging module; and calculating the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area according to the number of available outgoing lines and the power of a single charging module.
According to an embodiment of the invention, obtaining a predicted value of the electric vehicle holding capacity in the power distribution area after a preset time specifically includes: according to the annual preserved quantity of urban fuel automobiles and the annual preserved quantity of urban electric automobiles, GDP and population development trend, predicting the future L-year development trend of the urban electric automobile preserved quantity by adopting a random forest algorithm, and determining the predicted value of the urban electric automobile preserved quantity in the next L year, wherein L is a positive integer; according to the annual preserved quantity of urban fuel automobile history, the annual preserved quantity of urban electric automobiles and the annual predicted preserved quantity of the urban electric automobiles and the annual preserved quantity of the urban fuel automobile history in the power distribution area, predicting the future L-year development trend of the preserved quantity of the electric automobiles in the power distribution area by adopting regression analysis, and determining the predicted value of the preserved quantity of the electric automobiles in the power distribution area in the next L year.
According to an embodiment of the invention, obtaining the probability of using high-power charging by a single user and the average power of the electric vehicle during high-power charging specifically comprises: and counting the charging time length distribution, the vehicle type charging power distribution and the quantity proportion of high-power charging and conventional charging in the power distribution area of a plurality of users, and determining the probability of using high-power charging by a single user and the average power of the electric vehicle during high-power charging by a Monte Carlo method.
In order to achieve the above object, a second embodiment of the present invention provides a high power charging configuration apparatus, including: the first determining module is used for determining the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area according to the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line; the first obtaining module is used for obtaining a predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area after preset time; the second acquisition module is used for acquiring the probability of using high-power charging by a single user and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging; the second determining module is used for determining the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area according to the predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area after the preset time, the probability of the user using high-power charging and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging; a third determining module, configured to determine an actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area according to the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area and the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area; and the fourth determining module is used for determining a high-power charging connection scheme in the power distribution area according to the actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area, the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line.
According to the high-power charging configuration device of the embodiment of the invention, the high-power charging capacity configurable in the power distribution area is determined by the first determining module according to the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line, the predicted value of the holding capacity of the electric automobile in the power distribution area after the preset time is obtained by the first obtaining module, the probability of using high power for charging by a single user and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging are obtained by the second obtaining module, the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area is determined by the second determining module according to the predicted value of the holding capacity of the electric automobile in the power distribution area after the preset time, the probability of using high power for charging by the user and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging, and the actual high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area is determined by, the high-power charging wiring scheme in the power distribution area is determined through the fourth determination module according to the actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area, the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of loads carried by each outgoing line, therefore, surplus capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area can be summarized, the requirement of high-power charging of electric automobiles in the power distribution area is met, the summarizing of each outgoing line is achieved only through the connection of cables, the input cost is low, the operation is simple, the cost can be saved, and the high-power charging wiring scheme has high applicability.
In addition, the high-power charging configuration device proposed according to the above embodiment of the present invention may further have the following additional technical features:
according to an embodiment of the present invention, the first determining module is specifically configured to calculate a spare capacity of each outgoing line according to a rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in a power distribution area and a maximum capacity of a load carried by each outgoing line, determine an available outgoing line number according to the spare capacity of each outgoing line and a power of a single charging module, and calculate a configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area according to the available outgoing line number and the power of the single charging module.
According to an embodiment of the invention, the first obtaining module is specifically configured to predict the future L-year development trend of the urban electric vehicle reserves by using a random forest algorithm according to the annual reserves of the urban fuel vehicle histories, the annual reserves of the urban electric vehicles, GDPs and population development trends, determine a predicted value of the future L-year urban electric vehicle reserves, predict the future L-year development trend of the electric vehicle reserves in the power distribution area by using regression analysis according to the annual reserves of the urban fuel vehicle histories, the annual reserves of the urban electric vehicles and the annual reserves of the power distribution area, and determine the predicted value of the electric vehicle reserves in the power distribution area in the next L-year, wherein L is a positive integer.
According to an embodiment of the present invention, the second obtaining module is specifically configured to count charging duration distribution, vehicle type charging power distribution, and a quantity ratio of high-power charging and conventional charging in the power distribution area of a plurality of users, and determine a probability that a single user uses high-power charging and an average power of an electric vehicle during high-power charging by using a monte carlo method.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a high-power charging configuration method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a method of calculating a configurable high power charge capacity for a power distribution area according to one embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a high power charging connection according to one embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of a high power charging connection according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a block diagram of a high power charging configuration device according to an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a high-power charging configuration method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for configuring high-power charging according to the embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps:
and S1, determining the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area according to the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line.
Further, as shown in fig. 2, the step S1 may include:
and S101, calculating the surplus capacity of each outgoing line according to the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line.
Specifically, the spare capacity of each outgoing line can be calculated by the following formula:
Pi＝Pi set-Pi load
wherein p isiFor surplus capacity, p, of each outgoing line of the distribution network in the distribution areaset iRated capacity, p, of each outlet of distribution network in distribution areaload iThe maximum capacity of loads carried by the outgoing lines of the power distribution network in the power distribution area is 1,2 … N, N is the total number of the outgoing lines of the power distribution network in the power distribution area, and N is a positive integer.
Further, the surplus capacity of each level of distribution outgoing lines of the distribution network in the distribution area is obtained as follows:
{Pi}，i＝1,2…N。
and S102, determining the number of available outgoing lines according to the surplus capacity of each outgoing line and the power of a single charging module.
Specifically, if the spare capacity P of the outgoing line j of the distribution network in the distribution areaj≥PmThen, the outgoing line j may be determined as an available outgoing line, and thus the number of the outgoing lines available to the distribution network in the distribution area may be obtained as:
{Pj}，j＝1,2…M
j is the number of outgoing lines available for the power distribution network in the power distribution area, M is less than or equal to N and is a positive integer, pmIs the power of a single charging module.
Further, the available number of charging modules is:
and S103, calculating configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area according to the number of available outgoing lines and the power of a single charging module.
Specifically, the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area can be calculated by the following formula:
wherein p isaConfigurable high power charging capacity for power distribution areas.
And S2, obtaining a predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area after the preset time.
Specifically, according to the annual preserved quantity of the urban fuel automobile history, the annual preserved quantity of the urban electric automobile history, GDP and population development trend, a random forest algorithm is adopted to predict the future L-year development trend of the urban electric automobile preserved quantity, and the predicted value D of the future L-year urban electric automobile preserved quantity is determinedLWherein L is a positive integer. Then, according to the annual reserve capacity of the urban fuel automobile history, the annual reserve capacity of the urban electric automobile prediction and the annual reserve capacity of the power distribution region fuel automobile history, the future L-year development trend of the electric automobile reserve capacity in the power distribution region is predicted by adopting regression analysis, and the predicted value F of the electric automobile reserve capacity in the power distribution region in the next L year is determinedL。
In an embodiment of the invention, taking the electric vehicle holdup predicted in the next 5 years as an example, the annual holdup of the urban fuel vehicle history, the annual holdup of the urban electric vehicle history, GDP, and population development trend can be input into the random forest algorithm as 4 feature numbers, and specifically, 800 of the 1000 sets of historical data in the past 10 years of 100 cities can be extracted by adopting bootstrap sampling as training samples, and the remaining 200 sets can be used as test samples to obtain the random forest model. Through a random forest model, the future 5-year development trend of the holding capacity of the urban electric vehicle can be predicted, and the predicted value D of the holding capacity of the urban electric vehicle in the 5 th year in the future is determined5。
Then, the annual holding capacity of the history of the urban fuel automobiles, the annual holding capacity of the history of the urban electric automobiles and the predicted annual holding capacity and distribution area fuel automobiles can be comparedThe historical annual reserve capacity is input into a regression algorithm as a regression analysis parameter, the annual reserve capacity of urban fuel automobiles in the last 10 years, the annual reserve capacity of urban electric automobiles and predicted annual reserve capacity of urban electric automobiles and the annual reserve capacity of fuel automobiles in a power distribution area can be specifically adopted as independent variables of regression analysis, the reserve capacity of electric automobiles in the power distribution area is adopted as a dependent variable, nonlinear regression is adopted to obtain the relation between the dependent variable and the independent variable, the future 5-year development trend of the reserve capacity of electric automobiles in the power distribution area is predicted, and the predicted value F of the reserve capacity of electric automobiles in the power distribution area in the next 5 years is determined5。
It should be noted that, in the above embodiments, the annual inventory of the history of the urban fuel automobiles includes the current inventory of the urban fuel automobiles, and the annual inventory of the history of the urban electric automobiles includes the current inventory of the urban electric automobiles
And S3, acquiring the probability of using high-power charging by a single user and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging.
Furthermore, the charging time distribution, the vehicle type charging power distribution and the quantity proportion of high-power charging and conventional charging in a power distribution area of a plurality of users can be counted, and the probability P of using high-power charging by a single user is determined by a Monte Carlo methodFast-acting toyAnd the average power P when the electric automobile is charged with high powerEV。
And S4, determining the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area according to the predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area after the preset time, the probability of the user using high-power charging and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging.
Specifically, the high power charge demand capacity of the power distribution area can be calculated by the following formula:
Pr＝FN*Pfast-acting toy*PEV
Wherein, PrThe capacity is required for high power charging of the distribution area.
And S5, determining the actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area according to the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area and the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area.
Specifically, the actual high power charge capacity of the power distribution area is:
min{Pa,Pr}。
and S6, determining a high-power charging wiring scheme in the power distribution area according to the actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area, the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line.
In one embodiment of the invention, the outgoing line p of the distribution network in the distribution area may be connected as shown in fig. 31To the charging module P1-1，P1-2，…，P1-C1By analogy, the outgoing line p of the power distribution network in the power distribution area can be connectedMTo the charging module pM-1，pM-2，...，pM-CM。
The high-power charging wiring scheme of an embodiment of the present invention will be further described with reference to a specific high-power charging wiring diagram shown in fig. 4.
In one embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 4, the power distribution area is a cell, and the cell power distribution is divided into primary power distribution and secondary power distribution. Based on the two-stage power distribution network of a certain cell shown in fig. 4, the surplus capacity of each outgoing line of the primary power distribution network of the cell, such as the surplus capacity of CB1-1, CB1-2 and CB1-3 outgoing lines in the primary power distribution network, is counted first, and meanwhile the surplus capacity of each outgoing line of the secondary power distribution network, such as the surplus capacity of CB1-1-1, CB1-1-2 and CB1-1-3 outgoing lines in the secondary power distribution network, is counted.
Further, it needs to be determined whether the spare capacity of each outgoing line of the two-stage distribution network of the cell is greater than or equal to the power of a single charging module. Wherein, the single charging module adopts the charging module with the most common power of 15kW, and if the surplus capacity of the outgoing line CB1-1-3 is P1-1-3The surplus capacity of the outgoing line CB1-N-1 is P as 30kW1-N-1The surplus capacity of the outgoing line CB1-N-1 is P as 30kW1-N-230kW, the configurable high-power charging capacity of the cell is P1-1-3+P1-N-1+P1-N-2＝90kW。
In one embodiment of the present invention, the high power is shown in FIG. 4Charging pile is provided with 6 charging modules a with 15kW of above power1、a2、a3、a4、a5、a6Wherein the charging module a1And a charging module a2Can be connected with an outgoing line CB1-1-3 and is powered by an outgoing line CB1-1-3, and a charging module a3And a charging module a4Can be connected with an outgoing line CB1-N-1 and is powered by an outgoing line CB1-N-1, and a charging module a5And a charging module a6Can be connected with an outgoing line CB1-N-2 and is powered by an outgoing line CB 1-N-2.
According to the high-power charging configuration method provided by the embodiment of the invention, the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area is determined according to the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line, the predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area after the preset time is obtained, the probability of using the high-power charging by a single user and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging are obtained, the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area is determined according to the predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area after the preset time, the probability of using the high-power charging by the user and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging, the actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area is determined according to the configurable high-power charging capacity, The high-power charging wiring scheme in the distribution area is determined by the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the distribution network in the distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line, so that the surplus capacity of each outgoing line of the distribution network in the distribution area can be summarized, the requirement of high-power charging of electric vehicles in the distribution area is met, the summarizing of each outgoing line is realized only through the connection of cables, the investment cost is low, the operation is simple, the cost can be saved, and the high-power charging wiring scheme has high applicability.
The invention further provides a high-power charging configuration device corresponding to the high-power charging configuration method provided by the embodiment.
As shown in fig. 5, the high-power charging configuration apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention includes: the first determination module 10, the first acquisition module 20, the second acquisition module 30, the second determination module 40, the third determination module 50, and the fourth determination module 60. The first determining module 10 is configured to determine a configurable high-power charging capacity of the distribution area according to a rated capacity of each outgoing line of the distribution network in the distribution area and a maximum capacity of a load carried by each outgoing line; the first obtaining module 20 is configured to obtain a predicted value of the electric vehicle holding capacity in the power distribution area after a preset time; the second obtaining module 30 is configured to obtain the probability that a single user uses high-power charging and the average power of the electric vehicle during high-power charging; the second determining module 40 is configured to determine a high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area according to a predicted value of an electric vehicle holding capacity in the power distribution area after a preset time, a probability that a user uses high-power charging, and an average power of the electric vehicle during high-power charging; the third determining module 50 is configured to determine an actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area according to the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area and the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area; the fourth determining module 50 is configured to determine a high-power charging connection scheme in the power distribution area according to the actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area, the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area, and the maximum capacity of a load carried by each outgoing line.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the first determining module 10 is specifically configured to calculate the spare capacity of each outgoing line according to the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the distribution network and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line in the distribution area, determine the number of available outgoing lines according to the spare capacity of each outgoing line and the power of a single charging module, and calculate the configurable high-power charging capacity of the distribution area according to the number of available outgoing lines and the power of a single charging module.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the first determining module 10 may calculate the spare capacity of each outgoing line according to the following formula:
Pi＝Pi set-Pi load
wherein p isiFor surplus capacity, p, of each outgoing line of the distribution network in the distribution areaset iRated capacity, p, of each outlet of distribution network in distribution areaload iThe maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line of the distribution network in the distribution area is 1,2 … N, and N is the total number of the distribution outgoing lines.
Further, the first determining module 10 may obtain the spare capacity of each level of distribution outgoing lines of the distribution network in the distribution area:
{Pi}，i＝1,2…N。
in one embodiment of the invention, if the spare capacity P of the outgoing line j of the distribution network in the distribution area is enoughj≥PmThen, the outgoing line j may be determined as an available outgoing line, and thus the first determining module 10 may obtain the number of the outgoing lines available to the distribution network in the distribution area as:
{Pj}，j＝1,2…M
j is the number of outgoing lines available for the power distribution network in the power distribution area, M is less than or equal to N and is a positive integer, pmIs the power of a single charging module.
Further, the number of available modules available to the first determination module 10 is:
in an embodiment of the present invention, in combination with the number of available outgoing lines and the power of a single charging module obtained in the above embodiment, the first determining module 10 may calculate the high-power charging capacity configurable in the power distribution area according to the following formula:
wherein p isaConfigurable high power charging capacity for power distribution areas.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the first obtaining module 20 specifically adopts a random forest algorithm to predict the future L-year development trend of the urban electric vehicle reserves according to the annual reserves of the urban fuel vehicles, the annual reserves of the urban electric vehicles, the GDP, and the population development trend, and determines the future L-year urban electric powerPredicted value D of automobile reserveLAnd predicting the future L-year development trend of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area by adopting regression analysis according to the annual holding capacity of the urban fuel automobile history, the annual holding capacity of the urban electric automobile history, the annual predicted holding capacity of the urban electric automobile per year and the annual holding capacity of the fuel automobile history in the power distribution area in the next L year, and determining a predicted value F of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area in the next L yearLWherein L is a positive integer.
In an embodiment of the present invention, taking the example of predicting the electric vehicle retention amount of 5 years in the future as an example, the first obtaining module 20 may input the annual retention amount of the city fuel vehicle history, the annual retention amount of the city electric vehicle history, GDP, and population development trend as 4 feature numbers into the random forest algorithm, specifically, 800 of the feature numbers may be extracted as training samples by adopting bootstrap sampling from 1000 sets of historical data of 100 cities in the past 10 years, and the remaining 200 sets may be used as test samples to obtain the random forest model. In the random forest model, the depth of the trees is 3, the total number of the trees is 100, and each tree adopts a classification regression tree model. Forecasting future 5-year development trend of urban electric automobile holding capacity through random forest model, and determining forecast value D of urban electric automobile holding capacity in the 5 th future5。
Further, the first obtaining module 20 may input the annual preserved quantity of the city fuel automobile history, the annual preserved quantity of the city electric automobile history and the predicted annual preserved quantity of the city fuel automobile history and the annual preserved quantity of the distribution area fuel automobile history as regression analysis parameters into a regression analysis algorithm, specifically, the annual preserved quantity of the city fuel automobile in the last 10 years, the annual preserved quantity of the city electric automobile and the predicted annual preserved quantity of the city electric automobile per year and the annual preserved quantity of the distribution area fuel automobile are used as independent variables of the regression analysis, the preserved quantity of the electric automobile in the distribution area is used as a dependent variable, a relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variable is obtained by nonlinear regression, a future 5-year development trend of the preserved quantity of the electric automobile in the distribution area is predicted, and a predicted value F of the preserved quantity of the electric automobile in the distribution area in the next 5 years is determined5。
It should be noted that, in the above embodiments, the annual holding quantity of the history of the urban fuel automobiles includes the existing holding quantity of the urban fuel automobiles, and the annual holding quantity of the history of the urban electric automobiles includes the existing holding quantity of the urban electric automobiles.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the second obtaining module 30 may be specifically configured to count charging duration distribution, charging power distribution of vehicle models, and quantity ratio of high-power charging and conventional charging in a power distribution area of a plurality of users, and determine probability P of using high-power charging by a single user through a monte carlo methodFast-acting toyAnd the average power P when the electric automobile is charged with high powerEV。
In an embodiment of the present invention, the second determining module 40 may specifically calculate the high power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area according to the following formula:
Pr＝FN*Pfast-acting toy*PEV
Wherein, PrThe capacity is required for high power charging of the distribution area.
In one embodiment of the present invention, the actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution region specifically determinable by the third determination module 50 is:
min{Pa,Pr}。
in one embodiment of the present invention, the fourth determination module 60 is specifically configured to determine a high power charging wiring scheme within the power distribution area as shown in fig. 3. According to the wiring scheme determined by the fourth determination module 60, the outgoing line p of the distribution network in the distribution area can be determined1To the charging module P1-1，P1-2，…，P1-C1By analogy, the outgoing line p of the power distribution network in the power distribution areaMTo the charging module pM-1，pM-2，...，pM-CM。
The high-power charging wiring scheme of an embodiment of the present invention will be further described with reference to a specific high-power charging wiring diagram shown in fig. 4.
In one embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 4, the power distribution area is a cell, and the cell power distribution is divided into primary power distribution and secondary power distribution. Based on the two-stage power distribution network of a certain cell shown in fig. 4, the surplus capacity of each outgoing line of the primary power distribution network of the cell, such as the surplus capacity of CB1-1, CB1-2 and CB1-3 outgoing lines in the primary power distribution network, is counted first, and meanwhile the surplus capacity of each outgoing line of the secondary power distribution network, such as the surplus capacity of CB1-1-1, CB1-1-2 and CB1-1-3 outgoing lines in the secondary power distribution network, is counted.
Further, it needs to be determined whether the spare capacity of each outgoing line of the two-stage distribution network of the cell is greater than or equal to the power of a single charging module. Wherein, the single charging module adopts the charging module with the most common power of 15KW, and if the surplus capacity of the outgoing line CB1-1-3 is P1-1-3The surplus capacity of the outgoing line CB1-N-1 is P as 30kW1-N-1The surplus capacity of the outgoing line CB1-N-1 is P as 30kW1-N-230kW, the configurable high-power charging capacity of the cell is P1-1-3+P1-N-1+P1-N-2＝90kW。
In a specific embodiment of the invention, the high-power charging pile shown in fig. 4 needs to be provided with 6 charging modules a1, a2, a3, a4, a5 and a6, wherein the charging module a1 and the charging module a2 are respectively 15kW, the charging modules are connected with the outgoing line CB1-1-3 and are powered by the outgoing line CB1-1-3, the charging module a3 and the charging module a4 are connected with the outgoing line CB1-N-1 and are powered by the outgoing line CB1-N-1, and the charging module a5 and the charging module a6 are connected with the outgoing line CB1-N-2 and are powered by the outgoing line CB 1-N-2.
According to the high-power charging configuration method provided by the embodiment of the invention, the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area is determined by the first determining module according to the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line, the predicted value of the holding capacity of the electric vehicle in the power distribution area after the preset time is obtained by the first obtaining module, the probability of using high power for charging by a single user and the average power of the electric vehicle during high-power charging are obtained by the second obtaining module, the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area is determined by the second determining module according to the predicted value of the holding capacity of the electric vehicle in the power distribution area after the preset time, the probability of using high power for charging by the user and the average power of the electric vehicle during high-power charging, and the actual high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area is determined by the, the high-power charging wiring scheme in the power distribution area is determined through the fourth determination module according to the actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area, the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line, therefore, the surplus capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area can be summarized, the requirement of high-power charging in the area is met, the surplus capacity of each outgoing line only needs to be summarized through a cable, the investment cost is low, the operation is simple, the cost can be saved, and the high-power charging wiring scheme has high applicability.
In the description of the present invention, the terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implying any number of technical features indicated. Thus, a feature defined as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of that feature. The meaning of "plurality" is two or more unless specifically limited otherwise.
In the present invention, unless otherwise expressly stated or limited, the terms "connected" and "connected" are to be construed broadly, e.g., as meaning either a fixed connection or a removable connection, or an integral part; can be mechanically or electrically connected; either directly or indirectly through intervening media, either internally or in any other relationship. The specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood by those skilled in the art according to specific situations.
In the description herein, references to the description of the term "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "an example," "a specific example," or "some examples," etc., mean that a particular feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the invention. In this specification, the schematic representations of the terms used above are not necessarily intended to refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples. Furthermore, various embodiments or examples and features of different embodiments or examples described in this specification can be combined and combined by one skilled in the art without contradiction.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made in these embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the invention, the scope of which is defined in the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (8)
1. A high-power charging configuration method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining configurable high-power charging capacity of a power distribution area according to rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and maximum capacity of load carried by each outgoing line;
obtaining a predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area after a preset time;
obtaining the probability of using high-power charging by a single user and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging;
determining the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area according to the predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area after the preset time, the probability of the user using high-power charging and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging;
determining the actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area according to the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area and the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area;
and determining a high-power charging wiring scheme in the power distribution area according to the actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area, the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line.
2. The high-power charging configuration method according to claim 1, wherein the determining the configurable high-power charging capacity of the distribution area according to the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the distribution network in the distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line comprises:
calculating the surplus capacity of each outgoing line according to the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line;
determining the number of available outgoing lines according to the surplus capacity of each outgoing line and the power of a single charging module;
and calculating the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area according to the number of available outgoing lines and the power of a single charging module.
3. The high-power charging configuration method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein obtaining the predicted value of the electric vehicle holding capacity in the power distribution area after a preset time specifically comprises:
according to the annual preserved quantity of urban fuel automobiles and the annual preserved quantity of urban electric automobiles, GDP and population development trend, predicting the future L-year development trend of the urban electric automobile preserved quantity by adopting a random forest algorithm, and determining the predicted value of the urban electric automobile preserved quantity in the next L year, wherein L is a positive integer;
according to the annual preserved quantity of urban fuel automobile history, the annual preserved quantity of urban electric automobiles and the annual predicted preserved quantity of the urban electric automobiles and the annual preserved quantity of the urban fuel automobile history in the power distribution area, predicting the future L-year development trend of the preserved quantity of the electric automobiles in the power distribution area by adopting regression analysis, and determining the predicted value of the preserved quantity of the electric automobiles in the power distribution area in the next L year.
4. The high-power charging configuration method according to claim 3, wherein the obtaining of the probability that a single user uses high-power charging and the average power of the electric vehicle during high-power charging specifically comprises:
and counting the charging time length distribution, the vehicle type charging power distribution and the quantity proportion of high-power charging and conventional charging in the power distribution area of a plurality of users, and determining the probability of using high-power charging by a single user and the average power of the electric vehicle during high-power charging by a Monte Carlo method.
5. A high power charging arrangement, comprising:
the first determining module is used for determining the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area according to the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line;
the first obtaining module is used for obtaining a predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area after preset time;
the second acquisition module is used for acquiring the probability of using high-power charging by a single user and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging;
the second determining module is used for determining the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area according to the predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area after the preset time, the probability of the user using high-power charging and the average power of the electric automobile during high-power charging;
a third determining module, configured to determine an actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area according to the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area and the high-power charging demand capacity of the power distribution area;
and the fourth determining module is used for determining a high-power charging connection scheme in the power distribution area according to the actual high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area, the rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and the maximum capacity of the load carried by each outgoing line.
6. The high-power charging configuration device according to claim 5, wherein the first determining module is specifically configured to calculate spare capacity of each outgoing line according to a rated capacity of each outgoing line of the power distribution network in the power distribution area and a maximum capacity of a load carried by each outgoing line, determine an available outgoing line number according to the spare capacity of each outgoing line and a power of a single charging module, and calculate the configurable high-power charging capacity of the power distribution area according to the available outgoing line number and the power of the single charging module.
7. The high-power charging configuration device according to claim 5 or 6, wherein the first obtaining module is specifically configured to predict the future L-year development trend of the urban electric vehicle reserves by using a random forest algorithm according to the annual reserves of the urban fuel vehicles, the annual reserves of the urban electric vehicles, GDP (gross gas panel) and population development trends, and determine the predicted value of the future L-year urban electric vehicle reserves, and predicting the future L-year development trend of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area by adopting regression analysis according to the annual holding capacity of the urban fuel automobile history, the annual and predicted holding capacity of the urban electric automobile history and the annual holding capacity of the fuel automobile history in the power distribution area, and determining a predicted value of the electric automobile holding capacity in the power distribution area in the next L year, wherein L is a positive integer.
8. The high-power charging configuration device according to claim 7, wherein the second obtaining module is specifically configured to count charging duration distribution, charging power distribution of vehicle models, and a quantity ratio of high-power charging and conventional charging in the power distribution area of a plurality of users, and determine a probability that a single user uses high-power charging and an average power of an electric vehicle during high-power charging by a monte carlo method.
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