CN108492007B - Marine ecological environment damage cause and effect relationship determination method - Google Patents

Abstract

A causal relationship determination method for marine ecological environment damage belongs to the technical field of marine ecological environment protection and pollution damage identification and evaluation, and comprises the following steps: 6 marine ecological environment damage causal relationship chain models, four types of causal relationship judgment criteria and indexes with logic progressive relationships, a multi-type auxiliary evaluation model system architecture scheme matched with the judgment criteria, a marine ecological environment damage environment baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and index system construction scheme classified by sections and classified items, and a quantitative judgment method for damage degree of easily damaged factors and damage source item contribution, and provide a set of clear, simple, systematic and effective causal relationship judgment technical support for scientifically judging damage and consequences of marine engineering, production and living pollution discharge and sudden pollution events to marine ecological environment and human health, identifying and evaluating damage, tracing and compensating damage, and actively and effectively adopting pollution damage prevention, disposal and environmental remediation measures.

Description

Marine ecological environment damage cause and effect relationship determination method

Technical Field

The invention relates to a method for judging causal relationship of marine ecological environment damage, belonging to the technical field of marine ecological environment protection and pollution damage identification and evaluation, comprising the following steps: 6 marine ecological environment damage causal relationship chain models, four types of causal relationship judgment criteria and indexes with logic progressive relationships, a multi-type auxiliary evaluation model system architecture scheme matched with the judgment criteria, a marine ecological environment damage environment baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and index system construction scheme classified by sections and classified items, and a quantitative judgment method for damage degree of easily damaged factors and damage source item contribution, and provide a set of clear, simple, systematic and effective causal relationship judgment technical support for scientifically judging damage and consequences of marine engineering, production and living pollution discharge and sudden pollution events to marine ecological environment and human health, identifying and evaluating damage, tracing and compensating damage, and actively and effectively adopting pollution damage prevention, disposal and environmental remediation measures.

Background

With the continuous and rapid development of global economy, the development and utilization intensity of the ocean by human beings is continuously increased, and pollution damage to the ecological environment of the ocean frequently occurs, such as: various sea-related projects such as sea reclamation, dredging, sand excavation, embankment building, coastal highway building, sea-crossing bridge, submarine tunnel, ocean resource exploration and development and the like; pollutants such as petroleum, COD, nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, pesticides, heavy metals, chemicals, cold, heat, residual chlorine, foreign organisms, pathogens, suspended sediment, micro-plastics and the like from production and living emission sources enter the sea; oil spillage, dangerous chemicals and radioactive pollutant leakage incidents seriously threaten the safety of marine environment and the health of people who contact with the marine environment, and a scientific damage judgment and identification and evaluation technical system is urgently needed to be researched and established, so that scientific support is provided for judicial identification, responsibility and penalty judgment, claim compensation and sufficient restoration of marine ecological environment protection and damage.

The general principles, procedures, contents and methods of ecological environmental damage appraisal and evaluation are specified in the technical guideline outline of appraisal and evaluation of ecological environmental damage issued by the ministry of environmental protection, such as: legal compliance, scientific and reasonable, independent and objective principle; identifying and evaluating preparation, damage investigation and confirmation, cause and effect relationship analysis, damage object quantification, damage value quantification, evaluation report compilation, recovery effect evaluation and the like. The causal relationship analysis content is as follows: analyzing whether a causal relationship exists between the polluted environment or the ecological damage destroying behavior and the ecological environment damage or not based on the investigation results of the polluted environment, the ecological damage destroying behavior and the ecological environment damage fact; the quantitative content of the damaged object is as follows: comparing the difference between the damaged ecological environment condition and the baseline, determining the range and the degree of ecological environment damage, and calculating the ecological environment damage physical quantity; the damage value quantification content is as follows: an alternative equivalence analysis method is selected. (environmental protection department, government agency of the Ring No. [2016] 67)

The damage survey of the technical guideline for appraisal and evaluation of ecological environmental damage issued by the ministry of environmental protection specifies the general principles, procedures, contents and methods of damage survey in appraisal and evaluation of ecological environmental damage, such as: normative, neutral, comprehensive and timeliness principles; the method comprises the following steps of ecological environment baseline investigation, pollution source investigation, environmental quality investigation, biological investigation, ecological system service investigation, ecological environment recovery measure and expense investigation, ecological environment recovery effect assessment investigation and the like; the investigation flow is divided into two stages of preliminary investigation and system investigation, and each stage should make investigation working schemes respectively. (environmental protection department, government agency of the Ring No. [2016] 67)

The national marine oil spill ecological damage assessment technical guide issued by the national marine administration refers to the international oil stain damage civil affair convention of 1992 formulated by the international maritime organization, refers to the natural resource damage assessment instruction manual issued by the U.S. marine and atmospheric administration, and specifies the assessment program, assessment content, assessment method and requirements of marine oil spill on marine ecological damage, and aims to determine the object, range and program of marine oil spill damage through on-site investigation, data collection, oil spill identification technology, numerical simulation technology and the like, perform damage assessment work, provide technical basis for investigation, treatment, ecological damage cost calculation and the like of marine oil spill accidents, and finally provide sustainable utilization service for maintaining the health of an ecological system and marine resources. The guide provides evaluation which can be divided into three stages, wherein the first stage determines the evaluation working grade; in the second stage, an evaluation working outline is compiled, and by means and technologies of site survey, remote sensing interpretation, oil spill identification, sample analysis and test, oil spill drift diffusion numerical simulation and the like, an oil spill source, an oil spill amount, an oil spill diffusion range, a process and the like are found out, so that the influence and harm of the sea water environment, the marine sediment environment, the tidal flat environment, marine organisms, the marine ecosystem and the typical ecosystem caused by the oil spill are determined; and in the third stage, according to the evaluation working outline, compiling an ocean oil spill ecological damage evaluation report and calculating the total loss value of the oil spill to the ocean ecological damage. (national ocean office, HYT 095-

14.10.2017, the national quality supervision and inspection advices that the State administration approves and releases the general guidelines of the Marine ecological damage assessment technology guide 1 part of the general guidelines of the Marine ecological damage assessment technology guide 2 part of the Marine oil spill, wherein the marine oil spill part is revised on the basis of the release standards of the national Marine administration, the general guidelines partially prescribe the working procedures, methods, contents and technical requirements of the marine ecological damage assessment, the assessment work is divided into four stages of preparation, investigation, analysis and assessment and report compilation, the marine ecological damage is defined as the harmful influence of human activities on the marine ecological system, biological and non-biological factors thereof, the harmful events comprise marine development and utilization activities and marine environment emergency events, and are particularly divided into marine reclamation sites, permeable structures, The method comprises the steps of enclosing the sea and using the open sea, and carrying out oil spilling, dangerous chemical leakage and other pollutant discharge, wherein background data of a sea area where an event occurs are required to be collected in a preparation stage, field reconnaissance is carried out, basic conditions and ecological damage characteristics of the event are analyzed, evaluation contents are determined, damage evaluation factors and ecological sensitive targets are screened, an evaluation investigation range and an evaluation investigation method are determined, an evaluation working scheme is compiled, evaluation is carried out, ecological factors such as water quality, sediment, biology, water power and scouring-sludge are screened, change conditions before and after the event are compared, a damage range, an object and a degree are determined, a restoration scheme is compiled, value evaluation is carried out, an evaluation report is compiled and the like. (GB/T34546.1-2017, GB/T34546.2-2017)

The key premise of environmental damage compensation of Tang Xiao Qing et al: in the article of causality determination, it is mentioned that causality determination directly determines whether economic loss of environmental resources damaged by pollution accidents can be compensated, but due to recognition lag, the research on this aspect is still blank. The article starts from a causal chain of environmental damage, namely: a flow of causal relationship determination of environmental damage is proposed, in which pollutants (a) → discharge from a pollution source to the outside (B) → diffusion through a medium (C) → arrival at a damage receptor (D) → occurrence of damage (E), and which is: (1) identifying a source of contamination and a contaminant; (2) confirming damage, and judging whether environmental resources are damaged or not; (3) establishing an exposure path, and identifying a path for the contaminant from the contamination source to the receptor; (4) the correlation of the contamination with the damage results is demonstrated. ("Chinese population, resources and Environment" No. 22 vol. No. 8)

In the article of research on causal relationship determination method for water pollution environment damage identification and evaluation by luyulong et al, it is mentioned that determination of causal relationship is the key point and difficulty of environmental damage identification and evaluation, and the related presumption theory includes: the method comprises the following steps of establishing a causal relationship evidence chain based on a causal relationship chain which is based on the fact that a relationship-free theory, a fact proof theory, a epidemic cause and effect management theory, a natural cause and effect theory, an indirect evidence theory and the like exist, pollutants are discharged from a source and reach a receptor through a diffusion migration path to cause environmental damage, and providing 7 steps of a causal relationship determination method, namely: (1) collecting evidences, and determining pollution discharge and ecological damage facts; (2) investigating and verifying the consistency of the emission and the pollution in the medium; (3) analyzing the rationality of a transmission path from a transmission diffusion mechanism; (4) judging the pollution possibility through environmental monitoring; (5) identifying the whole exposure path unit, and determining whether a complete exposure path can be formed; (6) analyzing the correspondence between exposure and damage; (7) and comprehensively judging to give a conclusion whether a causal relationship exists. ("environmental science and management" vol 41, No. 11)

In "evaluation and assessment of environmental damage recommendation method (II) by environmental protection agency," the environmental planning institute of environmental protection agency "mentioned that the causal relationship determination between the environmental pollution behavior and the environmental damage fact is divided into two parts, (1) the causal relationship determination between environmental exposure and environmental damage; (2) establishment and verification of an exposure path for environmental contaminants from a source to a recipient. (office of environmental protection department, Loop No. [2014] 90)

Liu' anping et al in the article "cause and effect relationship determination of chronic health damage caused by environmental pollution" mention that chronic health damage caused by environmental pollution is particularly prominent, but the cause and effect relationship determination is difficult, and the method is a scientific and strong work, and needs a strict determination program and a meticulous determination idea to establish a feasible determination program. The article refers to the judgment conditions of an epidemiology judgment method, namely: (1) the contaminated area has a factor that causes damage, and other factors than this factor are unlikely to cause similar damage under the same conditions; (2) this factor is present before the lesion is produced; (3) the intensity of action of this factor is dose-responsive to the damaging effect; (4) a certain number of people in the polluted area are damaged; (5) the damage mechanism generated by the factor accords with the biological theory, and the basic judgment program of an indirect evidence-contrary judgment method is used for reference, namely: (1) pollutants are generated by pollution discharge enterprises; (2) discharging to the external environment; (3) transforming and diffusing through an environmental medium; (4) the human body coming into contact with the contaminant; (5) a basic procedure for cause-and-effect determination of chronic health damage due to environmental pollution is proposed, which generally uses one cause-and-effect chain as a main line, and includes: (1) determining a main pollution source and pollutants; (2) determining pollution discharge paths and processes; (3) determining environmental pollution and migration and transformation facts; (4) determining the regional environment and the local resident exposure fact; (5) the fact of damage is determined. ("China Hehui medical journal" No. 27, No. 5)

Although the above technical guidelines for evaluating marine ecological damage refer to "determining the possible range of marine ecological damage by comprehensively using methods such as site survey, environmental monitoring, biological monitoring, model prediction, or remote sensing analysis (e.g., aerial photographs, satellite images, etc.), and developing marine ecological damage confirmation and cause-effect relationship determination on the basis of the possible range, and finally determining the range and degree of marine ecological damage", the above technical guidelines, guidance and rules about the cause-effect relationship evaluation of marine ecological damage mainly focus on the following descriptions, but do not refer to the method for determining cause-effect relationship, and other papers and guidelines about the cause-effect relationship evaluation method of environmental damage only stay in conceptual and step descriptions for analyzing and determining cause-effect relationship, and lack of specific methods capable of determining cause-effect relationship of marine ecological environment damage, and supporting auxiliary model technologies:

1. defining general principles, procedures, contents and methods for assessment of ecological environmental damage identification and damage investigation;

2. the evaluation program, content, method and requirements of the ocean oil spill on the ocean ecological damage are specified, and technical basis is provided for accident investigation, treatment, ecological damage cost calculation and the like;

3. proposals have been made to establish a chain of causality that creates environmental damage based on the passage of contaminants from a source to a receptor through a diffusive transport pathway to determine decision workflow.

Although the technical guideline for evaluating the ecological damage of marine oil spill mentioned in the introduction refers to the determination of the influence and damage of the sea water environment, the marine sediment environment, the tidal flat environment, the marine life, the marine ecosystem and the typical ecosystem caused by the oil spill by means and techniques of site survey, remote sensing interpretation, oil spill identification, sample analysis and test, and numerical simulation of drift and diffusion of oil spill, the determination of the source of oil spill, the diffusion range and process of oil spill, the determination of the cause and effect relationship is not mentioned, the chain of cause and effect relationship of environmental damage caused by the source reaching the receptor through the diffusion migration path is not clear, and the evaluation report is only put forward in general terms to give relevant evaluation conclusions.

The existing technical method for identifying and evaluating the ecological environment damage has the following defects:

1. the method is mainly suitable for identification and evaluation of single and isolated damage events, and an evaluation method for superposition effects of a plurality of damage events is lacked;

2. mainly paying attention to the damage of ecological environment and ecological system service state, lacking an evaluation method for the damage of ecological system structure, process and function;

3. is not matched and connected with the auxiliary evaluation technology which can be utilized;

4. the damage of ecological environment damage to the health of the contact population is not considered.

The above-mentioned shortcomings have led to some studies failing to fully appreciate the causes and consequences of marine ecological damage.

For example: according to the results of the ecological experiments of the sea barricade in the Lai Bay of Bohai sea, the method simply deduces that "the petroleum hydrocarbon can not produce significant influence on the growth of the phytoplankton in the Bohai sea on the whole under the condition of annual average concentration", and the cause that the density of the phytoplankton is not changed greatly is not deeply analyzed, namely: as oil spills simultaneously damage zooplankton and other marine organisms, there is a corresponding reduction in the upper food chain biomass for consumption of phytoplankton. For another example: the occurrence and control of the offshore red tide in China are firmly related to eutrophication, pollutant discharge conditions and environmental conditions on the one hand, but on the other hand, the source contribution of foreign species invasion is also fully considered, otherwise, chains and judgment of cause and effect relations are incomplete. (Wang Xiulin et al Bohai sea main chemical pollutants marine environmental capacity, scientific publishing society)

Also for example: although the research on the cause of enteromorpha green tide in the yellow sea proves that the correlation of species and space-time distribution exists between the enteromorpha green tide and green algae on the nori, the causes of the aspects of the structure, the process and the function of an ecological system are influenced by the changes of water flow and erosion conditions, global climate change and the like caused by neglecting a large amount of sea reclamation projects in Bay of Jiaozhou and Bohai sea. (Special Issue: Green tables in the Yellow Sea, espuarine total and shelf science, Vol.163, Part A)

Disclosure of Invention

(1) Objects of the invention

In order to overcome the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a method for judging marine ecological environment damage, which comprises the following steps: 6 marine ecological environment harms causal relationship chain model, four kinds of causal relationship decision criteria and indexes that have logic progressive relation, the supporting supplementary evaluation model system architecture scheme of multiclass type with decision criteria, marine ecological environment harms environmental base line and damage degree decision criteria and index system construction scheme of subregion classification itemization, easily receive the quantitative determination method that damage factor harms degree and damage source item contributed, thus for the scientific judgement concerning sea engineering, produce and live pollution emission, the damage and the consequence that sudden marine pollution incident caused marine ecological environment and human health, for the appraisal and the evaluation of damage, pursuit and compensation, and actively take the prevention of pollution damage, deal with, environmental remediation measures provide a set of clear, simple, systematic, effective causal relationship decision technical support.

(2) Technical scheme

The technical scheme adopted by the invention for solving the technical problems is as follows: provided is a marine ecological environment damage judgment method, which includes: 6 marine ecological environment damage causal relationship chain models, four types of causal relationship judgment criteria and indexes with logic progressive judgment sequence, a multi-type auxiliary evaluation model system architecture scheme matched with the judgment criteria, a marine ecological environment damage environment baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and index system construction scheme of partition classification itemized classification, and a quantitative judgment method for damage degree of easily damaged factors and damage source item contribution, specifically comprising the following components:

the chain model of causal relationship of 6 marine ecological environment damages comprises: the model comprises a marine ecological environment damage mechanism model CJCM1 of persistent pollutants, an analysis model CJCM2 of paths and consequences for harming the health of people exposed to the marine ecological environment damage, causal relationship chain models CJCM3, CJCM4 and CJCM5 of marine ecological system imbalance and disaster frequency caused by foreign organism invasion, production and living pollution discharge and sea reclamation dredging, and a causal relationship chain model CJCM6 of pollutant damage source items and classification damage and consequences.

The four types of causal relationship judgment criteria have a logic progressive sequential judgment order, and each type of criteria has a respective proprietary judgment index which is:

first category-source item occurrence criterion, which is due to: known and unknown damaging events occurred, which had the following effects: will certainly cause certain type, degree and duration marine ecological environment damage after the incident takes place, damage type and degree should be specifically judged according to source item kind, intensity and distribution, processing situation, environmental condition, for this reason can be according to incident report, literature and media record, monitoring and tracing to source appraisal data and judge the emergence of incident, and whether the analysis has emergence of unknown damage source item incident, and the judgement index is: the method comprises the following steps of (1) types of single or multiple damage source items, evidence of occurrence of an event, occurrence time and location, wherein the damage source items are classified into three types of sea-related engineering, production and living pollution emission and sudden pollution event, the sea-related engineering damage source items can be subdivided into sea reclamation, dredging, sea dam bridges, coastal highways and seabed engineering, pollutants such as petroleum, COD (chemical oxygen demand), nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, pesticides, heavy metals, chemicals, cold, heat, residual chlorine, foreign organisms, pathogens, suspended sediment and micro plastics discharged by the production and living pollution emission type damage source items can be subdivided into chemical pollutants, physical pollutants and biological pollutants, and the sudden pollution event type damage source items can be subdivided into oil spill, dangerous chemical leakage and radioactive substance leakage;

second category-source item contamination criteria, which is due to one: persistent pollutant emission, which has the following effects: the marine ecological environment damage type is complex, the toxicity damage is high, the duration is long, and the marine ecological environment damage type is as follows: and (2) non-persistent pollutant emission, wherein the second step is as follows: the marine ecological environment damage type is simpler, the damage degree is lighter, the duration is shorter, pollutants which are easier to volatilize or degrade like gasoline fraction are non-persistent pollutants, pollutants which are harder to volatilize or degrade like diesel fraction are weak persistent pollutants, pollutants which are difficult to volatilize or degrade like crude oil vacuum fraction are middle persistent pollutants, pollutants which are difficult to volatilize or degrade like crude oil vacuum residue are strong persistent pollutants, and the judgment index is as follows: the composition of damage source items and the pollution harmfulness, and specific indexes comprise: main components and contents of pollutants of damage source items of production and living pollution emission and sudden pollution events, whether the pollutants have persistence and easy expansibility or not, and whether the pollutants have pollution harmfulness or not according to the material composition of the damage source items of the marine engineering;

third category-classification outcome criteria: the reason is as follows: the source of damage is in many different states in the marine environment, with the effect that: correspondingly acting on a multi-habitat multi-nutrition-level marine ecological environment, correspondingly causing various types of damages and further causing various types of damage consequences, wherein sea surface and semi-submerged floating state pollutants act on a sea water body and marine organisms, volatile evaporation state pollutants act on an air environment and contact crowd animals, dissolved and chemically dispersed state pollutants act on the sea water body and the marine organisms, landing state pollutants drifting to the coast act on a beach and intertidal zone organisms, settlement state pollutants which sink on a settled layer act on the beach and benthic organisms, adsorbed and foraged state pollutants which are absorbed by settled layer organisms act on food chain organisms, degraded state pollutants act on a polluted sea water body, the beach, the settled layer and the marine organisms, and the judgment index is as follows: the state of the impairment source items in the multi-habitat and multi-trophic marine ecosystems, the resulting categorical impairment and further the resulting categorical consequences, wherein,

the specific indexes of the multi-habitat marine ecological environment comprise: sea surface and different water depth layer sea water environment, sea surface air environment, beach environment, sediment environment, and marine organism spawning field, bait-fishing field, overwintering field and migration channel existing therein;

the specific indexes of the multi-nutritional grade marine ecological environment comprise: microorganisms, phytoplankton, roe and fish, benthos, intertidal organisms, economic fish, swimming animals, marine mammals, and birds and contact people;

the state of the damage source item in the multi-habitat and multi-trophic marine ecosystems includes: the liquid pollutants in a non-dissolved state are expanded, drift and diffuse on the sea surface and sink to a certain water depth layer to be transmitted and diffused along with ocean currents, the liquid pollutants in a dissolved state and chemically dispersed state or particle state pollutants enter a sea water body and are transmitted and diffused along with the ocean currents, the pollutants are transmitted to a settled layer and a shoreside along with the ocean currents to form settled and shoreside state pollutants and are further dispersed into the settled layer and the shoreside, marine organisms inhabiting the sea surface and the sea water body and the settled layer and the shoreside are exposed to the pollutants and absorb, adsorb, absorb and degrade the pollutants, the pollutants entering the marine organisms are foraged by other marine organisms along with a food chain to form bio-enrichment and bio-amplification, and the liquid pollutants in an evaporated state enter an air environment and contact with people, birds and mammals to occupy and change the sea area condition;

the specific types of classification damage caused include: blocking water-gas exchange, reducing self-cleaning capacity of seawater environment, reducing water quality, reducing photosynthesis rate, poisoning marine organisms and birds, harming the health of people in contact with the seawater environment, damaging the quality of beach and land boundary environment, damaging the quality of sediment environment, invading by foreign marine organisms, changing the space distribution of shorelines and water depth, damaging spawning sites, bait-rigging sites and overwintering sites, and blocking migration channels;

the specific types of classification consequences that further result include: pH, dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD₅Water quality indexes such as nitrogen and phosphorus content, water temperature rise and fall, oil content, chemical characteristic pollutant content, harmful pathogen content, micro-plastics and suspended particulate matter are reduced, the area of regional seawater quality exceeding national relevant standards is increased, the survival rate and biomass of phytoplankton and roe fries are reduced, the death rate of economic fishes and swimming animals is increased and escape occurs, the actual measurement of phytoplankton is increased due to the reduction of consumption, birds are injured or killed, and the incidence rate of epidemic diseases related to contact crowd is increasedAdditionally, health of marine mammals is damaged and escapes, death rate of intertidal organisms is increased and production amount is reduced, death rate of benthic organisms is increased and production amount is reduced, invasive species compete for living space and food of local species, biodiversity is reduced, populations and food nets of marine organisms are damaged, regional hydrodynamic force and scouring and silting environment are changed, habitats of marine organisms are lost, environmental media suitable for habitation, water flow conditions, change in supply of nutrient substances and baits, damage of marine organism resources, damage of marine ecosystem substances, damage of energy transmission structures and processes and ecosystem service functions, damage of marine ecosystem balance and stability, and frequent occurrence of marine ecological disasters;

the fourth category-spatio-temporal distribution criterion: the reason is as follows: the number and distribution of damage source items entering the marine environment vary according to the type of occurrence of the event and the conditions of disposal and environment, and the following results: correspondingly occupies or enters the quantity of multi-habitat and multi-nutrition-level ecological environments, the damage consequences caused by the corresponding quantity and the timely empty distribution need to be assisted by investigation evidence obtaining and calculation test judgment, and the judgment indexes are as follows: the source intensity, the spatial position and the duration of damage source items, the source intensity elimination amount, the spatial position and the duration of damage source item countermeasures, the damage degree grading standard of classification subentry damage and classification subentry consequences thereof, and the spatial distribution and the duration of classification subentry grading damage, wherein the specific indexes comprise: the method comprises the following steps of total occupation amount, discharge amount, recovery and drifting to coast amount, dissolved amount of dispersed water entering, natural volatilization amount, dissolved water entering amount, biological absorption, absorption and intake, degradation amount, seawater quality, excessive increase of sediment and coastal zone quality, excessive biological quality condition, marine organism population and food net, change condition of regional hydrodynamic force and scouring and silting environment, loss condition of marine organism habitat, environment medium suitable for habitation, water flow condition, change condition of nutrient substance and bait supply, marine organism diversity, biomass, fishery resource amount, reduction condition of marine ecosystem service function, damaged condition of marine ecosystem balance and stability, regional marine ecological disaster type, frequency, area and increased incidence rate of contact crowd epidemic disease.

The causal relationship determination model used to describe the four types of causal relationship determination criteria and typical determination indicators with logical progression is shown in fig. 1.

The model CJCM1 of the mechanism of the marine ecological environment damage caused by the persistent pollutants describes the following chain of causality: after the persistent pollutants enter the marine environment, components which are insoluble in water can drift and diffuse on the sea surface and layers with different water depths, volatile components can evaporate in the air along with natural weathering, soluble or chemically dispersed components can enter a water body, when the pollutants contact with seashore, sedimentary layers or marine organisms, migration transformation among multiple media, biological absorption and accumulation can occur, biological enrichment and biological amplification can be formed through food chains, and the pollutants enter a human body, when organisms are exposed to the persistent pollutants, the functional and structural disorder of cells and molecules can be caused, self-repairing at the level of the cells and the molecules can be simultaneously caused, when the concentration of the persistent pollutants reaches a certain level, over-repairing or repairing blocking can be caused, and a series of toxicological effects can be further generated, wherein the components comprise: the division rate and the photosynthesis rate of phytoplankton are reduced, organism tissue necrosis and fibrosis are caused, the survival rate of offspring is reduced, genetic variation occurs, the function of an immune system is inhibited, and pathological changes of cell proliferation, tumor and malignant tumor are formed, so that the structure, the process and the function of an ecological system are damaged correspondingly, and the health of people who contact the ecological system is harmed.

The marine ecological environment damage caused by persistent pollutants in the multi-habitat multi-nutrient level occurrence environmental weathering, migration transformation and biological transfer process is shown in FIG. 2 as a damage mechanism model CJCM1 constructed in a causal chain.

The path and consequence analysis model CJCM2 for harming the health of people exposed to the marine ecological environment damage describes the following chain of causal relationships: the routes for persistent pollutants into the human body include: the food is taken in by breathing and absorbed by skin in a contact way, enters fish, meat and milk products through a marine organism food chain, is taken in again, is transmitted into a baby body through placenta and lactation, and can cause symptoms such as endocrine disorder, nerve behavior disorder, reproductive and immune system destruction, cancer, tumor and dysplasia once being enriched in human organs, fat and fiber, thereby forming a harmful consequence of high incidence of related diseases in contact people.

The pathway and consequence analysis model CJCM2 of persistent pollutants into the exposed population and causing health hazards constructed in the chain of causality is shown in FIG. 3.

The causal relationship chain model CJCM3 for the imbalance of marine ecosystem and frequent disasters caused by the invasion of foreign organisms describes the following causal relationship chain: once the foreign marine organisms successfully invade the local sea area, the foreign marine organisms compete for living space and food with local species, a large-area single dominant community is easily formed due to lack of natural enemies, other species lose suitable habitat, biodiversity is reduced, the local population and a food net structure are damaged, and ecological system imbalance and disasters are caused.

The causal relationship chain model CJCM4 for the unbalance of marine ecosystem and frequent disasters caused by production and living pollution emission describes the causal relationship chain as follows: the pollution emission of production and living exceeds the environmental capacity, so that the self-purification capability of regional marine environment is damaged, the quality of marine environment is deteriorated and eutrophication is caused, suitable species are swelled, unsuitable species lose the suitable habitat, the biological population and the food net are damaged, the diversity is reduced, and the unbalance and frequent disasters of the ecological system are caused.

The causality chain model CJCM5 of the sea ecosystem imbalance and disaster frequent occurrence caused by the sea-filling and dredging projects describes the following causality chain: the sea-filling and dredging projects occupy sea area environments, damage to living habitats and change of shoreline water depth conditions are caused, regional marine power and erosion and deposition environment change are caused, further, the inhabitation environment conditions, nutrient substance and bait supply are changed, the growth and propagation of marine organisms are damaged, the biological diversity is reduced, and the ecological system imbalance and disaster frequency are caused.

Causal relationship chain models CJCM3, CJCM4 and CJCM5, which are caused by the sea-involved engineering of foreign organism invasion, production and living pollution discharge and sea-filling dredging, are respectively shown in the left, middle and right diagrams of FIG. 4.

The causal relationship chain model CJCM6 of the pollutant damage source item and classification damage and the result describes the causal relationship chain as follows: after entering the marine environment, the pollutants may be in different states due to the combined action of their own components and environmental conditions, and accordingly, the pollutants may act on certain multi-habitat multi-trophic marine ecosystems to cause different types of damages and further cause corresponding consequences, such as:

the non-dissolved state liquid pollutant mainly acts on the seawater body and plankton, swimmer and roe fry in the deep water layer, the evaporated state pollutant formed by volatile pollutant mainly acts on the air environment and contact crowd, birds and marine mammals, the dissolved state and chemically dispersed state liquid pollutant mainly acts on the seawater body and plankton, swimmer and roe fry, the landed state pollutant formed by transmitting to the shoal mainly acts on the shoal and intertidal zone organisms, the settled state pollutant formed by transmitting to the settled layer mainly acts on the settled layer and benthos, the pollutant absorbed and absorbed by the organism mainly acts on the marine organism absorbing and absorbing the pollutant and the upper layer food chain organism foraging the pollutant, the product after the pollutant is biodegraded mainly acts on the polluted seawater body, the shoal, the settled layer, the roe fry and the like, Marine organisms;

the damage such as reduction of water quality, poisoning of marine organisms, poisoning of birds and marine mammals, and damage to the health of people in contact with the water may be caused by the combined action of multiple source states, and the damage such as blocking of water-gas exchange, reduction of water self-purification capacity, reduction of photosynthesis rate, damage to beach and sea-land boundary environment quality, damage to sediment environment quality, poisoning of benthos, intertidal zone organisms, reduction of pollution damage, and restoration of ecological environment is caused by a single source state;

similarly, several types of damage may further result simultaneously such as dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD₅The water quality indexes of oil content are poor, the overproof area is increased, the survival rate and biomass of phytoplankton, roe and fry are reduced, and the economic fishThe consequences of increased or escaping of zooplankton and swimmer mortality, impaired marine ecosystem materials, energy transmission structures and processes, impaired ecosystem service function, and bird injury or death, increased prevalence of contact population-related epidemics, impaired or escaping marine mammal health, reduced shoreline environmental quality, increased intertidal zone biological mortality, reduced sediment environmental quality, increased benthic organism mortality, increased phytoplankton consumption, improved marine environmental quality, and significantly increased numbers of pollutant consuming flora are further caused by a single type of damage.

The detailed chain structure of the causal chain model CJCM6 of the pollutant damage source term and classification damage and consequences is shown in FIG. 5.

The architecture scheme of the multi-type auxiliary evaluation model system matched with the judgment criterion is as follows: the model system comprises a causal relationship judgment model, a multi-type auxiliary evaluation model, a survey test diagnosis evaluation method, a business process, a marine ecological environment damage environment baseline and damage degree judgment criterion and an index system, wherein the multi-type auxiliary evaluation model comprises the following specific components:

the models for assisting the evaluation and judgment of the first-type source item occurrence criterion mainly comprise: the system comprises a damage source item remote sensing monitoring model and a database, a damage consequence remote sensing monitoring model and a database, a pollutant fingerprint identification analysis model and a database, and a pollution traceability analysis model;

the models for assisting the evaluation and judgment of the second type-source item pollution criterion mainly comprise: a pollutant type and component retrieval model and a database, and a pollutant acute and chronic toxicity evaluation model and a pollutant acute and chronic toxicity evaluation database;

the models for assisting the third category-classification outcome criterion evaluation decision are mainly: damage mechanisms and environmental weathering models and databases;

the models for assisting the fourth category-evaluation decision of spatio-temporal distribution criteria are mainly: the system comprises an injury source item analysis model and a database, an injury source item marine ecological influence dynamic model, a multi-habitat multi-nutrition-level ecological damage assessment model and a marine pollution contact population health risk assessment model, wherein the injury source item marine ecological influence dynamic model comprises the following dynamic models and databases: the system comprises a regional ocean current baseline and influence model and database, a sea surface wind field diagnosis model and pollutant drift model, a regional erosion baseline model and change analysis model, a regional water quality baseline and influence model and database and a phytoplankton influence power model and database.

The investigation test diagnosis evaluation method and the business process comprise the following steps: known, there will be and there will be relevant assessment methods and business processes; the criterion and index system for determining the environmental baseline and the damage degree of the marine ecological environment comprise: the evaluation methods, the business process, the judgment criteria and the index system supplement with a multi-type auxiliary evaluation model to provide support for the judgment of the damage of the marine ecological environment.

The architecture scheme of the multi-type aided assessment model architecture matched with the decision criteria is shown in fig. 6.

The marine ecological environment damage environment baseline and damage degree judgment criterion of partition classification and item classification and the index system construction scheme, and the quantitative judgment method of the damage degree of the easily damaged factors and the damage source item contribution are as follows:

in the first step, from a plurality of marine ecological environment factors related to the causal relationship chain model, the judgment model and the auxiliary evaluation model, representative vulnerable factors corresponding to the damage source items are summarized, summarized and extracted, including the categories of the marine ecological environment factors which are easily damaged and representative index items thereof, such as: pH, oil content, dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD in the water₅Benzene series, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, benzopyrene, chemicals, radioactive index, suspended particulate matter, micro plastic, pathogen content, petroleum, heavy metal, pesticide, benzene series, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, benzopyrene, chemical content in substrate and biomass, phytoplankton, zooplankton, roe, fish larvae, benthonic animals, tide in biological species composition and quantity, habitat density and biomassThe method comprises the following steps of carrying out the corresponding indexes of benthic organisms and fishery resources, the positions, ranges and time of local species, foreign species populations and food net structures, fish spawning sites, bait sites, overwintering sites and migration channels in habitat states, fish species suitable for habitation, environmental media, temperature, salinity, water flow conditions, nutrient substances and bait supplies, regional marine power and scouring and silting environments in ecosystem states, substance, energy transmission structures and processes, biological diversity, system balance and stability, ecosystem service functions, and the incidence of epidemic diseases of five sense organs, skin, digestion, respiration, endocrine, nerve and genetic systems related to pollutants in contact with the health conditions of people;

and secondly, determining judgment criteria and indexes of environment baselines and grading damage degrees of the relevant easily damaged factors respectively according to different regions and damage source items, wherein the judgment criteria of the environment baselines of the easily damaged factors are as follows: the method can maintain the material and energy transmission structure and process of the regional marine ecosystem in a good, balanced and stable state, and can realize the index value when the regional marine ecosystem has a normal ecosystem service function, and the judgment criterion that the easily damaged factor is damaged to some extent is as follows: in a certain time and space range, the damage degree of the easily damaged factor caused by all the damage source items which are sent and have corresponding cause and effect relationships is in direct proportion to the difference between the current value of the easily damaged factor and the index value of the environmental baseline, the larger the difference is, the heavier the damage degree is, the smaller the difference is, and the lighter the damage degree is;

thirdly, quantitatively judging the degree of accumulated damage to corresponding easily damaged factors aiming at a plurality of known and unknown damage source terms, wherein a quantitative calculation formula is shown as a formula (1):

in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,

ΔDD_i，j，k: the accumulated damage degree of the k-th vulnerable factor in the j-th period of the ith area;

TV_{i，j，k，l}: ith zone, jth periodThe k-term susceptibility factor is damaged by the l damage source term;

DV_i，j，k: the measured value of the kth vulnerable factor in the jth time period of the ith area;

BV_i，j，k: the environmental baseline index value of the kth vulnerable factor in the jth period of the ith area;

fourthly, for specific known or unknown damage source items, the contribution value of the damage source items to the corresponding damage factors is quantitatively judged, and the quantitative calculation formula is shown as the formula (2):

in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,

TV_{i，j，k，l＝m}: the contribution value of the mth damage source item which occurs in the J0 time interval to the damage of the kth damage factor of the jth time interval of the ith area;

DV_i，j，k: the meaning is the same as formula (1);

DV_{i，j＝J0-1，k}: the measured value of the kth vulnerable factor in the ith area at the J0-1 time period;

TV_{i，j，k，l≠m}: the ith region jth period jth item vulnerability factor is impaired by the magnitude of the ith impairment source item in addition to the m item.

(3) Advantages and effects

The method has the advantages that the method for judging the causal relationship of the marine ecological environment damage is systematically established, and comprises the following steps: 6 marine ecological environment damage causal relationship chain models, four types of causal relationship judgment criteria and indexes with logic progressive relationship, a multi-type auxiliary evaluation model system architecture scheme matched with the judgment criteria, a marine ecological environment damage environment baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and index system construction scheme classified by subareas and items, a quantitative judgment method for damage degree of easily damaged factors and damage source item contribution, aiming at marine engineering such as sea reclamation, dredging, sea dam bridges, coastal highways and seabed engineering, and sudden pollution events such as petroleum, COD, nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, pesticides, heavy metals, chemicals, cold, heat, residual chlorine, foreign organisms, pathogens, suspended sediment, micro plastics and other pollutants from production and living sources, such as marine oil spill, hazardous chemical product leakage and radioactive substance leakage, the method is characterized in that a causality chain based on damage mechanism, approach, process and consequence analysis is established in detail in a classified manner, a causality judgment criterion and index for judging occurrence and pollution characteristics of damage source items, multi-habitat multi-nutrition-level classified damage consequences, source item and damage space-time distribution, a quantitative judgment method for auxiliary model and index system establishment schemes matched with the causality judgment criterion and index judgment criterion, damage degree of easily damaged factors and damage source item contribution are formed, damage and consequences caused by sea-related engineering, pollution discharge in production and life and sudden pollution events to marine ecological environment and human health are scientifically judged, and a clear, simple, systematic and effective causality judgment technical support is provided for damage identification and evaluation, responsibility pursuit and compensation and actively and effectively adopted pollution damage prevention, disposal and environment restoration countermeasures.

The invention creates a causal relationship determination method for marine ecological environment damage, a matched auxiliary model and index system construction scheme, and a quantitative determination method for the damage degree of easily damaged factors and the damage source item contribution, overcomes the defects that the existing indexes related to damage source items, damage factors, an environmental baseline and the damage degree assessment are scattered, the method is absent, the damage degree and the source item contribution are difficult to be determined by using an actual measurement value, and the accumulated damage is formed by neglecting and determining the coexistence of multiple damage source items, and fills the blank of the causal relationship determination method in the marine ecological environment damage identification and assessment technology.

Drawings

FIG. 1: a schematic diagram of a causal relationship determination model with a logic progression order;

FIG. 2: a schematic diagram of a chain model CJCM1 of the cause and effect relationship of marine ecological environment damage caused by persistent pollutants;

FIG. 3: a schematic diagram of a chain model CJCM2 of the cause and effect relationship of the health of the contact population caused by the hazard of the persistent pollutants;

FIG. 4: schematic diagrams of causal relationship chain models CJCM3, CJCM4 and CJCM5 of foreign organism invasion, pollution discharge in production and living, ocean ecosystem imbalance caused by marine engineering and frequent disaster;

FIG. 5: a schematic diagram of a chain model CJCM6 of the source term and classification damage and consequence cause and effect relationship of pollutant damage;

FIG. 6: a scheme diagram of a multi-type auxiliary evaluation model system architecture matched with a decision criterion;

FIG. 7: the cause and effect relationship verification chart of the influence of oil spilling and hazardous chemical substance accidents on water quality in Bohai sea in the century is shown;

FIG. 8: the causal relationship impression chart of the influence of yellow sea oil spill and dangerous chemical accidents on water quality in the century;

FIG. 9: relevant control countermeasures and effect verification graphs of the Chinese offshore foreign organism invasion disasters;

FIG. 10: annual distribution map of the reclamation area of the gulf bay and the caochien county sea area;

FIG. 11: an annual distribution diagram of the area of the enteromorpha green tide in the sea area of the northern part of the yellow sea and the Bohai sea;

FIG. 12: the influence of the variety and the quantity of marine organisms in the sea-going engineering in the deep-water harbor region of the Yangshan is monitored by a cause-and-effect relationship verification chart;

FIG. 13: annual distribution map of incidence of newly increased cancer in China since this century;

FIG. 14: newly adding an over-standard area estimation value and a mutual verification graph of an actually measured increase value of a communique after a Dalian '7.16' accident;

FIG. 15: 9 sections of zoning positions and numbering schematic diagrams of a plurality of ports shared by offshore ports in China.

Detailed Description

The invention discloses a method for judging a causal relationship of marine ecological environment damage. The method comprises the following steps: 6 marine ecological environment damage causal relationship chain models, four types of causal relationship judgment criteria and indexes with logic progressive relationship, a multi-type auxiliary evaluation model system architecture scheme matched with the judgment criteria, a marine ecological environment damage environment baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and index system construction scheme classified by subareas and items, wherein the mutual relationship is as follows: the constructed 6 representative marine ecological environment damage causal relationship chain models CJCM1, CJCM2, CJCM3, CJCM4, CJCM5 and CJCM6 indirectly demonstrate the damage to the marine ecological environment and the health of contact people caused by persistent pollutants, the marine ecological system unbalance and the damage frequent in disasters caused by foreign organism invasion, pollution discharge in production and life, sea filling and dredging, the multi-habitat multi-nutrition-level marine ecological environment damage and various types of damage caused by pollutant damage source items, the causal relationship judgment criteria and indexes are determined on the basis, the factors and the effects which cause damage and have logic progressive relationship respectively aim at the four key types of source item occurrence, pollution characteristics, classification results and space-time distribution, the factors and the effects which have logic progressive relationship and the indexes which need to be judged are matched with the multi-type auxiliary evaluation model which assists in qualitative and quantitative analysis and judgment indexes, therefore, a quantitative determination method for the multi-type auxiliary assessment model system architecture scheme, the environmental baseline and damage degree determination criterion and the index system construction scheme, the damage degree of the easily damaged factors and the damage source item contribution is formed, and a clear, simple, systematic and effective causal relationship determination technical support is provided for scientifically determining the damage and the consequences of the marine engineering, the pollution discharge in production and life and the sudden pollution event to the marine ecological environment and the human health, for identifying and assessing the damage, tracing and compensating, and actively and effectively adopting measures for preventing, disposing and repairing the pollution damage.

According to a marine ecological environment damage mechanism model CJCM1 of persistent pollutants, a contact population health approach and consequence analysis model CJCM2 and a causal relationship chain model CJCM6 of damage source items, classification damage and consequences, sudden marine oil spill and hazardous chemical substance events can cause environmental weathering, migration transformation and biological transfer of the persistent pollutants in the marine environment, generate a series of toxic effects on multi-habitat multi-nutrition-level marine organisms, even damage marine ecological system substances, energy transmission structures and processes and ecological system service functions, and damage the health of contact populations; according to chain models CJCM3, CJCM4 and CJCM5 of the cause and effect relationship that foreign organisms invade, produce and live pollution discharge, sea-filling dredging cause sea ecosystem imbalance and frequent disasters, ship ballast water discharge carrying the foreign organisms, coastal and sea fixed and mobile pollution sources continuously discharge pollutants of petroleum, COD, nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, cold, heat, residual chlorine and micro plastics, and sea-filling dredging cause the invasion of the foreign organisms, damage of sea area self-purification capability and environmental quality deterioration and eutrophication, occupation or change of living environment, further cause the explosion of suitable species and loss of suitable habitat environment of unsuitable species, change of original habitat environment and nutrition and bait supply, damage of local population and food net structure, damage of marine organism growth and propagation, reduction of organism diversity, causing ecological system imbalance and frequent disasters.

Using causal decision criteria and indices, a causal decision with a logical progression order can be made, respectively:

first category-source item occurrence criterion, which is due to: the method has the following effects that known and unknown sudden pollution events of oil spill and dangerous chemical leakage, foreign organisms discharged along with ship ballast water, pollution events of continuously discharging petroleum, COD, nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, cold, heat, residual chlorine and micro plastics from fixed and mobile pollution sources on the shore and the sea, and engineering events of sea-related engineering of sea-filling dredging occur: the marine ecological environment damage of the type mentioned above will be caused to a certain extent and duration after the occurrence of the event, and the specific type and extent should be determined according to the type, intensity and distribution of the source items, the disposal condition and the environmental conditions. To this end, event reports, literature and media records, monitoring and traceability data can be used to determine the occurrence of events and to analyze whether there is an occurrence of an event that is unknown as a source of damage, such as:

case 1: the general outline of oil spilling and hazardous chemical substance pollution accidents occurring in the Bohai sea and the yellow sea since the present century (table 1) and published data actually measured by the national oceanic administration sea water quality standard exceeding area are collected, and the determination of the cause and effect relationship and the mutual impression of the actual data (fig. 7-8) prove that the oil spilling accidents occurring in the yellow Bohai sea area and on a large scale all cause large-area serious pollution damage, so that the water quality index standard exceeding area of the sea area where the accidents are present in the present year appears at a peak value, and the damage degree and duration are in a direct proportion relation with the total amount and persistence of the oil spilling entering the sea, and the oil spilling safety hazard to the marine ecological environment and the human health hazard at the top of a food chain is worried.

TABLE 1 Bohai sea and yellow sea oil spill and hazardous chemical pollution accident summary of this century

Case 2: the discharge amount of ballast water loaded overseas by foreign trade ships in China since 1997 and published data on national red tide monitoring area of the national ocean office (national ocean office, China Marine disaster bulletin), and related international convention progress (FIG. 9) are collected, and the results show that with the progress of international trade and globalization, ship ballast water has become the most important channel for foreign organism invasion, and the early countries such as Europe, America, Australia and the like are often disturbed by invasion disasters, and China is full of invasion disasters as the largest late country. International Maritime Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) was filed by the initiatives of International Maritime Organization (IMO) in 1989 in canada and australia in the following 8 years, and MEPC has passed and repeatedly updated the guidelines on the control and management of ballast water to reduce the migration of harmful aquatic organisms and pathogens, and has successively approved 14 technical guidelines on the management and planning of ballast water after the IMO passed the international convention on the control and management of ballast water and its sediments in 2004 (the convention on ballast water), the guideline on ballast water management, the guideline on ballast water exchange, and the like, plus 2 technical guidelines on ballast water management policies and regulations, which have already been completed. The convention of ballast water has been that the ballast water convention has been in effect in 2017, so that international countries such as argentina, australia, brazil, canada, chile, norway, israel, new zealand, usa and the like have successively and unilaterally required measures such as ballast water exchange from 2004, the state of the northwest european helsinki committee has applied the temporary general guide rule of the voluntary applicable ballast water exchange standard D1 to the northeast atlantic ocean and the sea of polo in 2008, regional organizations such as the black sea, the gulf, the east asia and the like have made regional action plans from 2010, and the international shipping industry has required shipping enterprises to actively cooperate with the non-mandatory control measures already adopted by various governing bodies of the state to load clean ballast water as much as possible and reduce the possibility of sludge loading with the ballast water and the like, and various shipping companies in China have compiled the guidance of ballast water management plans published by the classification of ships (CCS) in 2006 and combined with the specific situations of the respective ships, a ship ballast water management plan is formulated and listed into a key operation file of a ship, so that the ship ballast water management plan is prepared for port state inspection, the Chinese nationwide ocean vessel requires to completely implement ballast water replacement operation in response to the port state requirements, CCS issues a 'ballast water convention implementation guide' in 2015 11 months, the difficulties of convention implementation in ship inspection and certification, port state inspection and sampling analysis methods, Ballast Water Management System (BWMS) reliability and the like are analyzed, and technical guidance is provided for shipping bound for BWMS selection and arrangement, ship application, additional ballast pumps and U.S. water area application requirements. The causal relationship determination and the mutual evidence result of the actual measurement data shown in fig. 9 indicate that, with the overall development of global actions for resisting the invasion disasters of foreign organisms, although the discharge amount of the foreign ballast water entering offshore regions of China is continuously increased, the types and the number of the foreign organisms carried in the ship ballast water are gradually reduced, and further, the coastal red tide area of China is in a year-by-year descending trend since 2004.

Case 3: the method collects the main pollutants of total phosphorus and COD discharged from the national ocean office 'Chinese ocean environmental condition bulletin' 2011-2015 through the sea sewage discharge outlet_CrThe main pollution elements of water quality in the sea area water body adjacent to the sewage discharge outlet are inorganic nitrogen, active phosphate, COD and petroleum, the main pollution elements of sediments are petroleum, copper, chromium, mercury, cadmium, sulfide and faecal coliform, and the biological quality is highThe main pollution elements are faecal coliform, lead, cadmium, zinc, petroleum hydrocarbon and dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane. The monitoring result shows that the fixed and mobile pollution sources on the shore and the sea continuously discharge pollutants such as petroleum, COD, nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, heavy metals, pesticides and pathogens, which really cause marine ecological environment damage to a certain extent and for a certain duration.

Case 4: the remote sensing information of the occurrence of the sea reclamation events in Bay, the Bohai sea and the Cao Fei Dian of the Jiaozhou is collected (figure 10, Renin et al, analysis on evolution process and ecological environment influence of the sea reclamation in Bay, ocean environmental science, 32(4), Wuyue et al, remote sensing monitoring of the space-time distribution and preliminary research on the influence of the space-time distribution in the land reclamation of the Hao Fei Tianhai, report on the sea lake, 2013(1)) and the measured data of the ecological disaster of Enteromorpha green algae (figure 11, national ocean office, China ocean disaster bulletin), according to the relevant foreign observation documents, the dam construction engineering in the sea area near New Wanjin of Korea results in that the M2 tide amplitude is reduced by 8-10 cm, the lag angle is reduced by about 3.5 degrees, the gulf flow rate of Tokyo of Japan is reduced by about 20% compared with 1968 in 1983, the influence of the sea reclamation trend of the sea reclamation not only in a short distance, but also has a significant remote effect on the sea area far from the sea reclamation, by judging the causal relationship and analyzing the mutual evidence of the causal relationship and the measured data, the sea reclamation area of the Caofiedian sea area starts from 2005, and reaches 50km in 3 years from 2007²Corresponding to the sum of the area of the sea in the sea reclamation area in the nearly 20 years in the Bay of the Guzhou, the corresponding short-term reduction level of the tidal volume reaches the long-term accumulated reduction level of the tidal volume in the Bay of the Guzhou, namely, the reduction level exceeds 10% of the original tidal volume, the reduction of the ocean current flow rate enables the originally micro-flung sea area to become micro-silted, and further the structure and the process of ecological system substance and energy transmission are changed, so that the green tide enteromorpha is likely to swell in the northern sea area of the yellow sea and enter the Bay of the Guzhou and the Bohai Bay from 2007.

Case 5: the method collects the remarkable influence of 2011 nuclear leakage accidents of the Japan Fudao in 2015 on the western pacific sea area of the Japan Fudao in the east and southeast directions, the characteristic nuclide cesium-134 of the Fudao nuclear accidents can be still detected in sea water samples of the sea area, and the activity of cesium-137 still obviously exceeds the background level of the Japan coastal sea area before the nuclear accidents; the average value of the activity of strontium-90 in the squid (Batterus) sample is higher than the background value before the accident.

Second category-source item contamination criteria, which is due to one: persistent pollutant emission, which has the following effects: the marine ecological environment damage type is complex, the toxicity damage is high, the duration is long, and the marine ecological environment damage type is as follows: and (2) non-persistent pollutant emission, wherein the second step is as follows: the marine ecological environment damage type is simple, the damage degree is light, and the duration is short. Therefore, the composition of damage source items and the pollution hazard can be judged according to event reports, literature and media records, monitoring and tracing identification data, such as:

the oil spill and hazardous chemical pollution accidents in the Bohai sea and the yellow sea which are investigated in the table 1 of the case 1 are mostly crude oil and fuel oil which belong to persistent pollutants in the past century, so that the marine ecological environment damage type caused by the judgment is complex, the toxicity damage is high, and the duration is long.

The main pollution elements of petroleum, copper, chromium, mercury and cadmium of the sediments in the adjacent sea area researched and researched in the above case 3, and the main pollution elements of lead, cadmium, zinc, petroleum hydrocarbon and dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane of biological quality belong to persistent pollutants, so that the judgment on the type of the corresponding marine ecological environment damage is complex, the toxicity hazard is high, and the duration is long.

The activity of cesium-134 and cesium-137 in seawater samples in the west pacific ocean area in the east and southeast directions and the average value of the activity of strontium-90 in squid (batroxobin mullet) samples in the japanese fukushima investigated in the above case 5 are higher than the background value before accidents, and belong to persistent pollutants, so that the judgment on the type of marine ecological environment damage caused by the activity is complex, the toxicity damage is higher, and the duration is longer.

Case 6: the method comprises the steps of collecting information of a collision fire accident of a Panama oil tanker 'Sangji' wheel east sea in 2018, 1 month and 6 days, wherein 11.13 ten thousand tons of cargo oil carried by the 'Sangji' wheel are condensate oil, commonly called as 'natural gasoline', the cargo oil sinks 45 at 1 month and 14 days and 16 days after 8 days of marine combustion, carried heavy oil for the ship comes from a starting port, about 1900 tons of heavy oil is carried, a small amount of light diesel oil is also carried, and 1200 tons of heavy oil and about 100 tons of diesel oil are carried at most when the cargo oil sinks, and the method is determined according to the causal relationship made by the information: although the number of condensate oil carried by the wheel of the 'Sangji' is large, the main component is gasoline fraction which is relatively volatile or degradable pollutant and belongs to non-persistent pollutant, the damage type of the marine ecological environment caused by the condensate oil is relatively simple, the damage degree is relatively light, the duration is relatively short, a small amount of diesel oil carried by the wheel of the 'Sangji' is relatively difficult to volatilize or degrade pollutant and belongs to weak persistent pollutant, the damage degree is relatively light, the duration is relatively short, 1200 tons of heavy oil carried by the wheel of the 'Sangji' is used as crude oil vacuum residual oil which is difficult to volatilize or degrade pollutant and belongs to strong persistent pollutant, the damage type of the marine ecological environment is complex, the toxicity hazard is relatively high, and the duration is relatively long.

Third category-classification outcome criteria: the reason is as follows: the source of damage is in many different states in the marine environment, with the effect that: correspondingly acts on the multi-habitat and multi-nutrition-level marine ecological environment, correspondingly causes various types of damage, and further causes various types of damage consequences.

Case 7: practical values of species of phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, intertidal organisms, fish roe larvae and fishery products in 2001 years before construction of a sea-related project and 4 years after construction of the sea-related project of the international shipping center are collected (figure 12), the sea-related project comprises sea filling between island chains, channel dredging and east sea-crossing bridge construction of a small sea island and a Shanghai Luchao harbor region, marine ecological environment background investigation is carried out according to a plan before construction, a chemical ship collision damage event happens in an investigation sea area before investigation, about 500 tons of styrene are leaked, aquatic products in the same year are polluted and damaged, the market of Eriocheir sinensis juvenile market does not exist in the same year, and from the annual change of the ecological environment factor monitoring result, the styrene pollutants in the pollution event has water solubility and mainly damages water quality and phytoplankton in a short period, the monitoring value of the number of the species of the zooplankton is obviously lower, the monitoring value is not suitable for being used as a background value to compare corresponding damage caused by the sea-related engineering, meanwhile, the pollution event does not bring obvious influence on the monitoring results of benthos, intertidal organisms, roe fries and fishery catches, so the monitoring value can still be used as the background value to compare corresponding damage caused by the sea-related engineering, the monitoring results show that the influence of the sea-related engineering on the benthos is most obvious, and the zooplankton, the roe fries and the fishery catches are secondly. (Lanju, George, research on the influence of the Water transportation engineering on the diversity of fishery resources, proceedings of the Marine pollution prevention and Emergency technical seminar, China environmental science Press)

Comprehensive analysis cases 1 to 7 these century occur in many kinds of sea-related engineering, production and living pollution discharge, and sudden pollution event damage source items in offshore and peripheral sea areas of China, which have various states including occupation and change of sea area conditions in multi-habitat and multi-nutrition level marine ecological environments, non-dissolved state liquid pollutants expand and drift and diffuse on the sea surface and sink to a certain depth layer and transmit and diffuse with ocean currents, dissolved state and chemically dispersed state liquid pollutants or particle state pollutants enter a seawater body and transmit and diffuse with ocean currents, pollutants are transmitted to a settled layer and a shore along with ocean currents to form settled state and landing state pollutants and further disperse into the settled layer and the shore, marine organisms inhabiting the sea surface and the seawater body and the settled layer and the shore are exposed to the pollutants and absorb, adsorb, ingest, and degrade the pollutants, pollutants entering marine organisms are foraged by other marine organisms along with food chains and form organism enrichment and organism amplification, evaporated liquid pollutants enter air environments and contact crowds, birds and mammals, some pollutants change the space distribution of shorelines and water depths, destroy spawning sites, bait fields and overwintering sites, obstruct migration channels, cause invasion of foreign marine organisms, obstruct water and gas exchange, reduce water quality, photosynthesis rate and self-purification capacity of seawater environments, damage shoals and sea-land junctions and sediment environment quality, poison marine organisms and birds, harm the health of contact crowds, destroy marine organism populations and food nets, change regional hydrodynamic force and scouring-silting environment and nutrient substance and bait supply, reduce marine organism resource amount and biodiversity, and cause marine ecosystem substances, energy transmission structures and processes and ecosystem service functions, The balance and stability of the marine ecosystem are damaged, which causes frequent marine ecological disasters. According to the 2015 Chinese Cancer statistical data report (HaoJie, Chenwangqing, and the like, Cancer statistics in China, 2015, CA-Cancer J Clin, 66(2)) and the latest Cancer data in China released by the national Cancer center in 2017, annual change conditions of incidence of newly-added cancers in China since this century are analyzed (FIG. 13), from 2000 to 10 years in 2010, newly-added Cancer cases with confirmed diagnosis are doubled every year to reach nearly 300 ten thousand, and according to trend analysis, the annual change conditions are increased to 400 ten thousand again in 2020, wherein the annual change conditions also contribute to marine ecological system damage besides the contribution to fresh water, grassland, forest, farmland and urban ecological system damage, and the consequences are worried about later.

The fourth category-spatio-temporal distribution criterion: the reason is as follows: the number and distribution of damage source items entering the marine environment vary according to the type of occurrence of the event and the conditions of disposal and environment, and the following results: the corresponding number of the ecological environments occupying or entering the multi-habitat and multi-nutrition level, the damage results and the timely air distribution need to be assisted by investigation and evidence obtaining and calculation test judgment, and the classification construction scheme of the matched auxiliary evaluation model is shown in table 2.

TABLE 2 Classification construction scheme List of auxiliary evaluation models

The pollutant types and components retrieval model and the database in the table 2 have the most representativeness by the components and average content information of different fractions of crude oil, the pollutant types and components retrieval model and the representative mechanism model in the database in the table 3 are detailed, the damage mechanism and the environmental weathering model and the representative mechanism model in the database in the table 2 are detailed in fig. 2-5, the oil spill weathering water quality influence evaluation model is as formulas (3) - (7), and the damage source item analysis model, the database and the damage source item marine ecological influence dynamic model in the table 2 are constructed by adopting the research results in the case 7 ocean mountain deep water harbor area environmental influence report of the Shanghai International shipping center.

TABLE 3 average crude oil fraction ratio, average content of classified components, and principal component information

ΔC′_i，oil，k＝(C_i，oil，k-C_0，oil，k)×M_i，oil，k×H_e，k/H_r×T_r/T_e，k (5)

In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,

the oil film coverage area of oil spilling in the area to be evaluated in the ith time period is determined;

the overflow scale of the oil spill in the area to be evaluated in the ith time period is determined; t is_r、A3_rThe maximum oil film thickness and oil density of the spilled oil in the area to be evaluated; c1_r、C2_r、C3_r、C4_rAdjusting factors for oil film thickness of severe, moderate, mild and other polluted areas of the oil type to be evaluated; delta C'_i，oil，kThe ith time interval of the weathering experiment of the kth oil species calculated according to the weathering experiment resultThe oil content concentration in water varies; c_0，oil，k、C_i，oil，kThe oil content background concentration and the experimental concentration in the ith time period in the kth oil weathering experiment water are obtained; m_i，oil，kAn oil content concentration amplitude variation adjusting factor in water in the ith time period of the kth oil species weathering experiment; h_e，k、H_r、T_e，kThe water depth of the weathering test of the kth oil seed, the average water depth of water quality sampling points of the oil spill case water area and the thickness of the weathering test oil film of the kth oil seed are measured;

the oil spill recovery amount of the area to be evaluated in the ith period;

the weight of oil spilling entering the water body in the ith time period of the area to be evaluated;

the area of an influence area which is beyond the nth water quality standard caused by the oil spill on the water quality of the non-closed water area; s_oil，nThe limit value of the oil content in water is the nth water quality standard; c'_0，oilThe background concentration of the oil content in the water of the area to be evaluated; f_i，k，n: water quality influence coefficient of kth oil type at i-th time period, F_i，k，n＝F1_i，k×F2_i，k×F3_i，k，n，F1_i，k: coefficient that other water quality indexes exceed standard caused by oil spill in the ith period of the kth oil type F2_i，k: i-th stage contaminant degradation coefficient of kth oil, F3_i，k，n: the oil spill ratio influenced by the nth type water quality standard in the ith period of the kth oil.

By comparing the experimental results with the measured values of the oil spill accidents of Tasmanian steamship and Dalian 7.16 reported in the literature, the DO, COD, oil content and BOD in the model are compared₅And (5) calibrating the scaling simulation ratio of the concentration. On the basis, according to the source data of investigation and research, a pollution area estimation model (formula (4)) is adopted to calculate the area of the newly added super-class seawater quality standard of the petroleum concentration in the yellow sea and the Bohai sea in the current year and the second year of the Dalian '7.16' accident. In the case of overlapping accident of great connection 7.16After the area of the 19-3 Penglai oil spill accident occurs in the next year, the area increase value of the exceeding standard seawater quality index estimated by the formula (5) and the actually measured increase value of the communique can be mutually verified (fig. 14), so that the causal relationship judgment of the exceeding standard water quality damage caused by the two oil spill accidents is supported, and the model calculation parameters are shown in a table 4.

TABLE 4 partial parameter values of the water quality influence evaluation model of the current year and the next year of the Dalian 7.16 accident

The investigation test diagnosis evaluation method and the business process adopt known and existing related evaluation methods and business processes, the marine ecological environment damage environment baseline and damage degree judgment criterion and index system adopts qualitative and quantitative judgment indexes of subareas, damage source item types, easily damaged factors and index items and damage degree grades, wherein the offshore region of China is divided into 9 sections of areas (figure 15) according to a common route of a plurality of ports, and the subareas are numbered, named, long and seen in a table 5 at peripheral ports and are used for constructing damage source items, easily damaged factor environment baselines and damage degree judgment index systems related to ship shipping, port construction and operation.

TABLE 5 common course 9 sections of the offshore multiple harbors in China, with section number, name, length, and ports around

Aiming at damage source items of each pollution accident in the case 1, the contribution to the exceeding area increase value of the seawater quality is quantitatively judged by adopting the formula (2), and the exceeding area increase value of the sea area caused by the accident in the current year can reach 1-2 km²The overproof area is larger and the duration is longer when continuous pollution accidents occur.

Aiming at the above cases 1-7, which are the source items of various sea-related projects, production and living pollution discharge and sudden pollution events occurring in offshore and peripheral sea areas in China in this century, the damage degree and contribution of marine ecological environment damage caused by quantitative determination of formula (1) and formula (2) are adopted, the quantitative calculation assumes that the damage of fresh water, sea, grassland, forest, farmland and urban ecological system damage to contact people is universal and the contribution to the increase of new cancer cases is basically the same, so that the damage accumulation of each ecological system in 20 years leads to about 1 million new cancer cases, which account for about 0.75% of the population in China, and is equivalent to that the cancer is definitely diagnosed by single ecological system damage of 3 persons in each 400 contact people on average, namely: the combined contribution of 6 kinds of ecological system damage in 20 years leads to about 18 people in every 400 contact crowds to be diagnosed with cancer, the damage degree is quite serious, and the prevention, the recovery and the compensation of the marine ecological system damage are greatly needed to be done while the prevention, the recovery and the compensation of the fresh water, the grassland, the forest, the farmland and the urban ecological system damage are done simultaneously, so that the people are ensured to really enjoy healthy marine ecological environment and safe life quality.

Claims (6)

1. A causal relationship determination method for marine ecological environment damage is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method is a systematic causal relationship determination method about marine ecological environment damage, and comprises the following 5 subsystems: subsystem 1: 6 marine ecological environment damage cause and effect relationship chain models, subsystem 2: four types of causal relationship determination criteria and indexes with logic progressive relationship, and a subsystem 3: a multi-type auxiliary evaluation model system architecture scheme matched with a decision criterion, and a subsystem 4: a marine ecological environment damage environment baseline and damage degree judgment criterion and index system construction scheme of partition classification and item classification, and a subsystem 5: the quantitative determination method for the damage degree of the vulnerable factor and the contribution of the damage source item, the execution flows of the 5 subsystems and the input and output logical relations among the execution flows are as follows: the subsystem 1 contains 6 representative marine ecological environment damage cause and effect chain models, the chain models indirectly prove the damage to the marine ecological environment and the health of people in contact with the marine ecological environment caused by persistent pollutants along the paths of mechanisms, paths, processes and consequences, and serve as input ends of the subsystem 2 and the subsystem 4, and the damage to the marine ecological system and the frequent disasters caused by foreign organism invasion, pollution discharge in production and life, sea reclamation projects, and multi-habitat multi-nutrition-level marine ecological environment damage and various types of damage consequences caused by pollutant damage sources; the subsystem 2 determines the corresponding cause-effect relationship and the judgment criterion and the index thereof according to the output of the subsystem 1, wherein the cause-effect relationship and the judgment criterion and the index are respectively called as a first type: source item occurrence criterion, second class: contamination characteristic criterion, third class: classification outcome criteria, fourth class: the space-time distribution criterion is used as the input ends of the subsystem 3, the subsystem 4 and the subsystem 5; the subsystem 3 is matched with the subsystem 2 to provide a multi-type auxiliary evaluation model for auxiliary qualitative and quantitative analysis and evaluation of the judgment indexes, so that a multi-type auxiliary evaluation model system architecture scheme is formed, and the corresponding auxiliary evaluation model is selected according to the output of the subsystem 2 to perform qualitative and quantitative analysis and evaluation of the judgment indexes; the subsystem 4 further induces, summarizes and extracts representative easily-damaged factors corresponding to the damage source items according to the output of the subsystem 1, further forms a partition classification and item classification environmental baseline and damage degree judgment criterion and index system construction scheme, is used for judging the environmental baseline and the damage degree of the easily-damaged factors corresponding to the damage source items according to the output of the subsystem 2, and is used as an input end of the subsystem 5; the subsystem 5 quantitatively judges the degree of accumulated damage to the corresponding easily damaged factors aiming at a plurality of known and unknown damage source items according to the output of the subsystem 4, and forms a quantitative judgment method of the damage degree of the easily damaged factors and the contribution of the damage source items, which is used for quantitatively judging the degree of accumulated damage to the corresponding easily damaged factors according to the output of the subsystem 2; the main components and the connection relations of the 5 subsystems are as follows:

1.1 the chain model of causality of 6 marine ecological environment damages comprises: the system comprises a persistent pollutant marine ecological environment damage mechanism model CJCM1, a path and consequence analysis model CJCM2 for harming the health of people in contact with the marine ecological environment, a causal relationship chain model CJCM3 for causing marine ecosystem imbalance and frequent disasters due to invasion of foreign organisms, a causal relationship chain model CJCM4 for causing marine ecosystem imbalance and frequent disasters due to production and living pollution discharge, a causal relationship chain model CJCM5 for causing marine ecosystem imbalance and frequent disasters due to marine engineering of reclamation and sea dredging, and a causal relationship chain model CJCM6 for causing pollutant damage source items and classified damage and consequences;

1.2 the four types of causal relationship determination criteria with logic progressive relationship are established on the basis of a marine ecological environment damage causal relationship chain model, have the cause and effect of damage and the logic progressive sequential determination sequence of corresponding determination indexes, and respectively provide clear, simple, systematic and effective causal relationship determination criteria aiming at four types of key links causing damage, such as source item generation, source item pollution, classification consequence and space-time distribution, wherein each type of criteria has a respective proprietary determination index, and the criteria and the indexes jointly form a causal relationship determination model;

1.3 the scheme of the multi-type auxiliary evaluation model system architecture matched with the decision criterion is as follows: the model system is constructed by the causal relationship judgment model, a multi-type auxiliary evaluation model, an investigation test diagnosis evaluation method and a business process, and a marine ecological environment damage environment baseline and damage degree judgment criterion and an index system, wherein the multi-type auxiliary evaluation model is constructed by different types of auxiliary evaluation model architectures respectively corresponding to the four types of causal relationship judgment criteria and indexes, the investigation test diagnosis evaluation method and the business process are composed of known and to-be-applied related evaluation methods and business processes, and the marine ecological environment damage environment baseline and damage degree judgment criterion and index system are composed of qualitative and quantitative judgment indexes of regions, damage source items and categories, easily damaged factors and index items and damage degree grades;

1.4 the marine ecological environment damage environment baseline and damage degree judgment criterion and index system construction scheme of the subarea classification and item classification is as follows: firstly, the categories of the easily damaged factors and representative index items in the easily damaged factors are specified by combining the causal relationship chain model, the judgment model and the auxiliary evaluation model, then, the judgment criteria for judging the environmental baselines of the easily damaged factors and the damage to a certain degree are defined, then, different regions and damage source items are divided to respectively determine the judgment criteria and the indexes, and the damage degree of the easily damaged factors and the damage source item contribution are quantitatively judged;

1.5 the method for quantitatively determining the damage level of the vulnerable factor and the contribution of the damaged source item comprises a method for quantitatively calculating the accumulated damage level of the vulnerable factor to a plurality of damaged source items and a method for quantitatively calculating the contribution value of the vulnerable factor to a specific damaged source item, wherein the method for quantitatively calculating the degree is a method for calculating the difference between the real value of the vulnerable factor of the sub-area, sub-area and sub-item and the environmental baseline index value, and the method for quantitatively calculating the contribution value of a specific damaged source item among a plurality of damaged source items occurring in a specific area to the increment of the real value of the vulnerable factor of the sub-area, sub-area and sub-item is a method for calculating the difference between the real value of the vulnerable factor of the sub-area, sub-area and sub-item.

2. The method for determining the causal relationship of the marine ecological environment damage according to claim 1, wherein the chain models of the 6 types of marine ecological environment damage causal relationship are specifically:

2.1 model CJCM1 of the mechanism of the marine ecological environment damage caused by persistent pollutants describes the chain of causality as follows: after the persistent pollutants enter the marine environment, components which are insoluble in water can drift and diffuse on the sea surface and layers with different water depths, volatile components can evaporate in the air along with natural weathering, soluble or chemically dispersed components can enter a water body, when the pollutants contact with seashore, sedimentary layers or marine organisms, migration transformation among multiple media, biological absorption and accumulation can occur, biological enrichment and biological amplification can be formed through food chains, and the pollutants enter a human body, when organisms are exposed to the persistent pollutants, the functional and structural disorder of cells and molecules can be caused, self-repairing at the level of the cells and the molecules can be simultaneously caused, when the concentration of the persistent pollutants reaches a certain level, over-repairing or repairing blocking can be caused, and a series of toxicological effects can be further generated, wherein the components comprise: the division rate and the photosynthesis rate of phytoplankton are reduced, organism tissue necrosis and fibrosis are caused, the survival rate of offspring is reduced, genetic variation is caused, the functions of an immune system are inhibited, and pathological changes of cell proliferation, tumor and malignant tumor are formed, so that the structure, the process and the function of an ecological system are damaged correspondingly, and the health of people who contact the ecological system is harmed;

2.2 pathway and consequence analysis model CJCM2 for the health risks of the exposed population due to the damage of marine ecological environment describes the chain of causality as follows: the routes for persistent pollutants into the human body include: the food is taken in by breathing and absorbed by skin in a contact way, enters fish, meat and milk products through a marine organism food chain, is taken in again, is transmitted into a baby body through placenta and lactation, and can cause symptoms such as endocrine disorder, nerve behavior disorder, reproductive and immune system destruction, cancer, tumor and dysplasia once being enriched in human organs, fat and fiber, thereby forming a harmful consequence of high incidence of related diseases in contact people;

2.3 causal relationship chain model CJCM3 of the imbalance of marine ecosystem and the frequent occurrence of disasters caused by the invasion of foreign organisms describes the following causal relationship chain: once the foreign marine organisms successfully invade the local sea area, the foreign marine organisms compete for living space and food with local species, a large-area single dominant community is easily formed due to lack of natural enemies, other species lose suitable habitat, so that the biodiversity is reduced, the local population and the food net structure are damaged, and the ecological system imbalance and disasters are frequent;

2.4 cause and effect chain model CJCM4 for the imbalance of marine ecosystem and frequent disasters caused by the emission of production and living pollutants describes the following cause and effect chain: production and living pollution discharge exceeds the environmental capacity, so that the self-purification capability of regional marine environment is damaged, the quality of marine environment is deteriorated and eutrophication is caused, suitable biological species are swelled, unsuitable biological species lose the suitable habitat, biological populations and food nets are damaged, the diversity is reduced, and the unbalance and frequent disasters of an ecological system are caused;

2.5-nd reclamation of sea-filling dredging the cause and effect chain model CJCM5 of the imbalance of marine ecosystem and the frequent occurrence of disasters caused by these sea-related projects describes the cause and effect chain as follows: the sea-filling and dredging projects occupy sea area environments, damage to living habitats and change of shoreline water depth conditions are caused, regional marine power and erosion and deposition environment are caused to change, further, the inhabitation environment conditions, nutrient substance and bait supply are changed, the growth and propagation of marine organisms are damaged, the biological diversity is reduced, and the ecological system imbalance and disaster frequency are caused;

2.6 causal chain model CJCM6 of pollutant damage source term and classification damage and consequences describes the following causal chain: after entering the marine environment, pollutants may present different states due to the comprehensive action of self components and environmental conditions, and accordingly act on certain multi-habitat multi-nutrition-level marine ecological environments to cause different types of damages and further cause corresponding consequences;

in the causal relationship chain, damages such as reduction of water quality, poison of marine organisms, poison of birds and marine mammals, and damage of contacting people health may be caused by the combined action of multiple source item states, and damages such as blocking of water-gas exchange, reduction of self-purification capacity of water body, reduction of photosynthesis rate, damage of beach and sea-land boundary environment quality, damage of sediment environment quality, poison of benthos, intertidal zone organisms, reduction of pollution damage, and restoration of ecological environment are caused by a single source item state;

similarly, several types of damage in the causal chain may further lead to other factors such as dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD, etc. simultaneously₅The water quality indexes of oil content are poor, the overproof area is increased, the survival rate and biomass of phytoplankton and roe fries are reduced, the death amount of economic fishes and swimming organisms is increased or escape occurs, and the results of the damage to the material, energy transmission structure and process of a marine ecosystem and the service function of the ecosystem are achievedInjury or death, increased incidence of epidemics associated with exposure to humans, impaired or escape from marine mammals, decreased coastal line environmental quality, increased intertidal zone biological mortality, decreased sediment environmental quality, increased benthic organism mortality, increased phytoplankton biomass as measured by decreased consumption, improved marine environmental quality, and a significant increase in the number of contaminant consuming flora results from a single type of injury.

3. The method for determining causal relationship of marine ecological environment damage according to claim 1, wherein said four types of causal relationship determination criteria and indicators having a logical progression relationship are:

3.1 first class-source term occurrence criterion, which is due to: known and unknown damaging events occurred, which had the following effects: certain types, degrees and duration of marine ecological environment damage can be caused after an event occurs, and the type and degree of damage are specifically determined according to the type, intensity and distribution of source items, disposal conditions and environmental conditions;

the judgment indexes corresponding to the criterion are as follows: the method comprises the following steps of (1) types of single or multiple damage source items, evidence of occurrence of an event, occurrence time and location, wherein the damage source items are classified into three types of sea-related engineering, production and living pollution emission and sudden pollution event, the sea-related engineering damage source items can be subdivided into sea reclamation, dredging, sea dam bridges, coastal highways and seabed engineering, pollutants such as petroleum, COD (chemical oxygen demand), nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, pesticides, heavy metals, chemicals, cold, heat, residual chlorine, foreign organisms, pathogens, suspended sediment and micro plastics discharged by the production and living pollution emission type damage source items can be subdivided into chemical pollutants, physical pollutants and biological pollutants, and the sudden pollution event type damage source items can be subdivided into oil spill, dangerous chemical leakage and radioactive substance leakage;

3.2 second class-source item contamination criteria, which is due to one: persistent pollutant emission, which has the following effects: the marine ecological environment damage type is complex, the toxicity damage is high, the duration is long, and the marine ecological environment damage type is as follows: and (2) non-persistent pollutant emission, wherein the second step is as follows: the marine ecological environment is simpler in damage type, lower in damage degree and shorter in duration, pollutants which are easy to volatilize or degrade like gasoline fractions are non-persistent pollutants, pollutants which are difficult to volatilize or degrade like diesel oil fractions are weak persistent pollutants, pollutants which are difficult to volatilize or degrade like crude oil vacuum fractions are medium persistent pollutants, and pollutants which are difficult to volatilize or degrade like crude oil vacuum residues are strong persistent pollutants;

the judgment indexes corresponding to the criterion are as follows: the composition of damage source items and the pollution harmfulness, and specific indexes comprise: main components and contents of pollutants of damage source items of production and living pollution emission and sudden pollution events, whether the pollutants have persistence and easy expansibility or not, and whether the pollutants have pollution harmfulness or not according to the material composition of the damage source items of the marine engineering;

3.3 third class-categorical outcome criteria: the reason is as follows: the source of damage is in many different states in the marine environment, with the effect that: correspondingly acting on a multi-habitat multi-nutritional-level marine ecological environment, correspondingly causing various types of damages and further causing various types of damage consequences, wherein sea surface and semi-submerged floating pollutants act on a sea water body and marine organisms, volatile evaporation state pollutants act on an air environment and contact crowd animals, dissolved and chemically dispersed state pollutants act on the sea water body and the marine organisms, coastal state pollutants drifting to the coast act on a beach and intertidal zone organisms, sedimentary state pollutants deposited on a settled layer act on the beach and benthic organisms, absorbed by settled layer organisms and foraged state pollutants act on food chain organisms, and degraded state pollutants act on polluted sea water bodies, beaches, settled layers and marine organisms;

the judgment indexes corresponding to the criterion are as follows: the state of the damage source item in the multi-habitat and multi-trophic marine ecosystems, the classification damage caused and the classification consequences further caused, wherein:

the specific indexes of the multi-habitat marine ecological environment comprise: sea surface and different water depth layer sea water environment, sea surface air environment, beach environment, sediment environment, and marine organism spawning field, bait-fishing field, overwintering field and migration channel existing therein;

the specific indexes of the multi-nutritional grade marine ecological environment comprise: microorganisms, phytoplankton, roe and fish, benthos, intertidal organisms, economic fish, swimming animals, marine mammals, and birds and contact people;

the state of the damage source item in the multi-habitat and multi-trophic marine ecosystems includes: the liquid pollutants in a non-dissolved state are expanded, drift and diffuse on the sea surface and sink to a certain water depth layer to be transmitted and diffused along with ocean currents, the liquid pollutants in a dissolved state and chemically dispersed state or particle state pollutants enter a sea water body and are transmitted and diffused along with the ocean currents, the pollutants are transmitted to a settled layer and a shoreside along with the ocean currents to form settled and shoreside state pollutants and are further dispersed into the settled layer and the shoreside, marine organisms inhabiting the sea surface and the sea water body and the settled layer and the shoreside are exposed to the pollutants and absorb, adsorb, absorb and degrade the pollutants, the pollutants entering the marine organisms are foraged by other marine organisms along with a food chain to form bio-enrichment and bio-amplification, and the liquid pollutants in an evaporated state enter an air environment and contact with people, birds and mammals to occupy and change the sea area condition;

the specific types of classification damage caused include: blocking water-gas exchange, reducing self-cleaning capacity of seawater environment, reducing water quality, reducing photosynthesis rate, poisoning marine organisms and birds, harming the health of people in contact with the seawater environment, damaging the quality of beach and land boundary environment, damaging the quality of sediment environment, invading by foreign marine organisms, changing the space distribution of shorelines and water depth, damaging spawning sites, bait-rigging sites and overwintering sites, and blocking migration channels;

the specific types of classification consequences that further result include: pH, dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD₅Water quality indexes such as nitrogen and phosphorus content, water temperature increase and decrease, oil content, chemical characteristic pollutant content, harmful pathogen content, micro-plastics and suspended particulate matter are reduced, the area of regional seawater quality exceeding national relevant standards is increased, the survival rate and biomass of phytoplankton and roe fries are reduced, the death rate of economic fishes and swimming animals is increased and escape occurs, the actual measurement of phytoplankton is increased due to the reduction of consumption, birds are injured or escapeMortality, increased morbidity of epidemics associated with exposure to populations, impaired and lost health of marine mammals, increased mortality and reduced production of intertidal organisms, increased mortality and reduced production of benthic organisms, competition by invasive species for local species living space and food, reduced biodiversity, damage to marine organism populations and food nets, changes in regional hydrodynamic and scouring and silting environments, loss of marine organism habitat, environmental media suitable for habitation, water flow conditions, changes in nutrient and bait supply, damage to marine organism resources, damage to marine ecosystem materials, damage to energy transmission structures and processes and ecosystem service functions, damage to marine ecosystem balance and stability, and frequent occurrence of marine ecological disasters;

3.4 fourth category-spatio-temporal distribution criterion: the reason is as follows: the number and distribution of damage source items acting on the marine environment vary according to the occurrence type of events, the treatment conditions and the environmental conditions, and the following results are obtained: correspondingly occupying or entering the number of multi-habitat and multi-nutrition-level ecological environments, and needing to be assisted by investigation evidence taking and calculation test judgment on the caused damage results and air distribution in time;

the judgment indexes corresponding to the criterion are as follows: the source intensity, the spatial position and the duration of damage source items, the source intensity elimination amount, the spatial position and the duration of damage source item countermeasures, the damage degree grading standard of classification subentry damage and classification subentry consequences thereof, and the spatial distribution and the duration of classification subentry grading damage, wherein the specific indexes comprise: the method comprises the following steps of total occupation amount, discharge amount, recovery and drifting to coast amount, dissolved amount of dispersed water entering, natural volatilization amount, dissolved water entering amount, biological absorption, absorption and intake, degradation amount, seawater quality, excessive increase of sediment and coastal zone quality, excessive biological quality condition, marine organism population and food net, change condition of regional hydrodynamic force and scouring and silting environment, loss condition of marine organism habitat, environment medium suitable for habitation, water flow condition, change condition of nutrient substance and bait supply, marine organism diversity, biomass, fishery resource amount, reduction condition of marine ecosystem service function, damaged condition of marine ecosystem balance and stability, regional marine ecological disaster type, frequency, area and increased incidence rate of contact crowd epidemic disease.

4. The method for determining the causal relationship of marine ecological environment damage according to claim 1, wherein the structural scheme of the multi-type auxiliary evaluation model system matched with the determination criterion comprises the following components:

4.1 evaluation decision models for assisting the first class-source term occurrence criterion are mainly: the system comprises a damage source item remote sensing monitoring model and a database, a damage consequence remote sensing monitoring model and a database, a pollutant fingerprint identification analysis model and a database, and a pollution traceability analysis model;

4.2 evaluation decision models to assist the second category-source item contamination criterion are mainly: a pollutant type and component retrieval model and a database, and a pollutant acute and chronic toxicity evaluation model and a pollutant acute and chronic toxicity evaluation database;

4.3 evaluation decision models to assist the third category-classification outcome criterion are mainly: damage mechanisms and environmental weathering models and databases;

4.4 evaluation decision models to assist the fourth category-spatio-temporal distribution criteria are mainly: the system comprises an injury source item analysis model and a database, an injury source item marine ecological influence dynamic model, a multi-habitat multi-nutrition-level ecological damage assessment model and a marine pollution contact population health risk assessment model, wherein the injury source item marine ecological influence dynamic model comprises the following dynamic models and databases: the system comprises a regional ocean current baseline and influence model and database, a sea surface wind field diagnosis model and pollutant drift model, a regional erosion baseline model and change analysis model, a regional water quality baseline and influence model and database and a phytoplankton influence power model and database.

5. The method for determining causal relationship of marine ecological environment damage according to claim 1, wherein the criterion for determining the baseline and damage degree of the marine ecological environment damage by partition classification and item classification and the index system are constructed as follows:

5.1 classes of vulnerability factors embodied therein and having representatives thereinThe index items of sex are: pH, oil content, dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD in the water₅Benzene series, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, benzopyrenes, chemicals, radioactive indicators, suspended particulate matter, micro-plastics, pathogen content, petroleum, heavy metals, pesticides, benzene series, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, benzopyrenes, chemical content in substrate and biomass, phytoplankton, zooplankton, roe, larval fish, benthonic animals, benthonic organisms in intertidal zone, corresponding indicators of fishery resources, as well as the status of local species, exotic species populations and food net structure, fish spawning site in habitat status, cable bait site, overwintering site, location, range, time of migration channels, fish species suitable for habitat, environmental media, temperature, salinity, water flow conditions, nutrient and nutrient supply, regional marine power and scouring environment in ecosystem status, substance, energy transport structure and process, Biodiversity, system balance and stability, ecosystem service function, exposure to contamination-related five sense organs, skin, digestive, respiratory, endocrine, neurological, genetic system epidemics incidence in population health;

5.2 the environmental baseline judgment criteria of the vulnerable factors are as follows: the material and energy transmission structure and process of the regional marine ecosystem can be maintained in a good, balanced and stable state, and the index value of the regional marine ecosystem in the normal ecosystem service function can be realized;

5.3 the decision criteria for a vulnerability factor to be compromised to some extent are: within a certain time and space range, the damage degree of the easily damaged factor caused by all the damage source items which are sent and have corresponding causal relationship is in direct proportion to the difference between the current value of the easily damaged factor and the environmental baseline index value of the easily damaged factor, and the larger the difference is, the heavier the damage degree is, the smaller the difference is, and the lighter the damage degree is.

6. The method for determining causal relationship of marine ecological environment damage according to claim 1, wherein the method for quantitatively determining the damage degree of the vulnerable factor and the contribution of the damage source term includes:

6.1 for a plurality of known and unknown damage source terms, the quantitative calculation formula for quantitatively judging the accumulated damage degree caused by the known and unknown damage source terms to the corresponding vulnerable factors is as follows:

here,. DELTA.DD_i，j，kAccumulating damage degrees of various damage source items suffered by the kth damage factor in the jth period of the ith region; TV (television)_{i，j，k，l}The amount of damage of the k item vulnerable factor to the l item of damage source in the j period of the ith area; DV (distance vector)_i，j，kThe measured value of the kth vulnerable factor of the jth time period of the ith area; BV (BV)_i，j，kAn environmental baseline index value of a k-th vulnerable factor of a j-th period of the ith area;

6.2 for a specific known or unknown damage source item, the quantitative calculation formula for quantitatively judging the damage contribution value of the damage source item to the corresponding damage susceptibility factor is as follows:

here, TV_{i，j，k，l＝m}The contribution value of the m damage source item which occurs in the J0 time interval to the k damage factor damage of the J time interval of the i region; DV (distance vector)_i，j，kThe meaning is the same as 6.1; DV (distance vector)_{i，j＝J0-1，k}Measured value of the kth vulnerable factor of the ith area during the J0-1 period; TV (television)_{i，j，k，l≠m}The k < th > item vulnerable factor is damaged by the l < th > damage source item except the m < th > item in the j < th > period of the ith area.

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