AU2021101529A4 - Method for judging causal relationship of marine ecological environment damage - Google Patents

Abstract

A method for judging the causal relationship of marine ecological environment damage belongs to the technical field of marine ecological environment protection and pollution damage identification and evaluation. It includes six types of causal chain models of marine ecological environment damage, four types of causal judgment criteria and indicators with logical progressive relationship, multi-type auxiliary evaluation model system architecture scheme matched with judgment criteria, marine ecological environment damage baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and index system construction scheme classified by region and sub-item, and quantitative judgment method of damage degree and damage source item contribution of vulnerable factors. It provides a set of clear, simple, systematic and effective technical support for judging the causal relationship for scientifically judging the damage and consequences caused by sea-related projects, production and living pollution emissions and sudden pollution incidents to marine ecological environment and human health, for the identification and assessment of damage, accountability and compensation, and for actively and effectively adopting countermeasures and measures for prevention, disposal and environmental restoration of pollution damage.

Description

Method for judging causal relationship of marine ecological environment damage

TECHNICAL FIELD The invention relates to a method for judging the causal relationship of marine ecological environment damage, belonging to the technical field of marine ecological environment protection and pollution damage identification and evaluation. It includes six types of causal chain models of marine ecological environment damage, four types of causal judgment criteria and indicators with logical progressive relationship, multi-type auxiliary evaluation model system architecture scheme matched with judgment criteria, marine ecological environment damage baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and index system construction scheme classified by region and sub-item, and quantitative judgment method of damage degree and damage source item contribution of vulnerable factors. It provides a set of clear, simple, systematic and effective technical support for judging the causal relationship for scientifically judging the damage and consequences caused by sea-related projects, production and living pollution emissions and sudden pollution incidents to marine ecological environment and human health, for the identification and assessment of damage, accountability and compensation, and for actively and effectively adopting countermeasures and measures for prevention, disposal and environmental restoration of pollution damage. BACKGROUND With the sustained and rapid development of the global economy, the intensity of human exploitation and utilization of the ocean has been increasing, and pollution damage to the marine ecological environment has occurred frequently, such as reclamation, dredging, sand excavation, embankment construction, coastal roads, sea crossing bridges, subsea tunnels, exploration and development of marine resources and other types of sea-related projects. Pollutants such as petroleum, COD, nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, pesticides, heavy metals, chemicals, cold, heat, residual chlorine, exotic organisms, pathogens, suspended sediment and microplastics from production and domestic emission sources enter the sea. The leakage of oil spill, hazardous chemicals and radioactive pollutants seriously threatens the safety of marine environment and the health of people exposed to it. It is urgent to study and establish a scientific technical system of damage judgment, appraisal and evaluation, and provide scientific and technological support for judicial appraisal, accountability and penalty, claim and compensation, and adequate repair of marine ecological environment protection and damage. The General Outline of Technical Guidelines for Identification and Evaluation of Ecological Environmental Damage issued by the Ministry of Environmental Protection stipulates the general principles, procedures, contents and methods of identification and evaluation of ecological environmental damage, such as: legal compliance, scientific rationality, independence and objectivity. Identification and assessment preparation, damage investigation and confirmation, causal relationship analysis, damage quantification, damage value quantification, assessment report preparation, recovery effect assessment and other processes. Among them, the content of causality analysis is: based on the investigation results of environmental pollution, ecological destruction and ecological environment damage, analysing whether there is causality between environmental pollution or ecological destruction and ecological environment damage. The quantitative content of damage is: compare the difference between the damaged ecological environment and the baseline, determine the scope and degree of ecological environment damage, and calculate the physical quantity of ecological environment damage. The quantitative content of damage value is: choose alternative equivalent analysis method. (Ministry of Environmental Protection, Huanban Politics and Law

[2016] No.67) The damage investigation of the technical guide for ecological environmental damage assessment issued by the Ministry of Environmental Protection stipulates the general principles, procedures, contents and methods of damage investigation in ecological environmental damage assessment, such as the principles of standardization, neutrality, comprehensiveness and timeliness. Ecological environment baseline survey, pollution source survey, environmental quality survey, biological survey, ecosystem service survey, ecological environment restoration measures and cost survey, ecological environment restoration effect evaluation survey, etc. The investigation process is divided into two stages: preliminary investigation and systematic investigation, and investigation work plans should be worked out in each stage. (Ministry of Environmental Protection, Huanban Politics and Law [2016] No.67) Technical guidelines for marine oil spill ecological damage assessment issued by the state oceanic administration refer to the 1992 international convention on civil liability for oil pollution damage formulated by the international maritime organization and the guidance manual for natural resource damage assessment issued by the oceanic and atmospheric administration of the United States, and stipulate the assessment procedures, contents, methods and requirements of marine ecological damage caused by marine oil spill. Combined with oil spill identification technology and numerical simulation technology, the object, scope and procedure of oil spill damage are determined, and the damage assessment work is carried out, which provides technical basis for the investigation and treatment of oil spill accidents and the calculation of ecological damage costs, and finally serves the maintenance of ecosystem health and sustainable utilization of marine resources. The guideline proposes that the assessment can be divided into three stages. The first stage determines the assessment level; In the second stage, the assessment work outline is compiled, and the oil spill source, oil spill quantity, oil spill diffusion range and process are identified by means of field investigation, remote sensing interpretation, oil spill identification, sample analysis and numerical simulation, and the influence and harm of oil spill on seawater environment, marine sediment environment, tidal flat environment, marine life, marine ecosystem and typical ecosystem are determined. In the third stage, according to the assessment work outline, the marine oil spill ecological damage assessment report is prepared, and the total loss value of marine ecological damage caused by oil spill is calculated. (State Oceanic Administration, HYT 095-2007) On October 14, 2017, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Suggestion approved the release of Technical Guidelines for Marine Ecological Damage Assessment Part 1 General Provisions and Technical Guidelines for Marine EcologicalDamage Assessment Part 2 Oil Spillfrom the Sea, in which the oil spill from the sea was revised on the basis of the standards issued by the above-mentioned State Oceanic Administration, and the general provisions stipulated the working procedures, methods, contents and technical requirements of marine ecological damage assessment.

The assessment work is divided into four stages: preparation, investigation, analysis and assessment, and report preparation. The marine ecological damage is defined as the harmful effects of human activities directly or indirectly changing the natural conditions of the sea area or discharging pollutants and energy into the sea area on the marine ecosystem and its biological and abiotic factors. The damage events include marine development and utilization activities and marine environmental emergencies, which are specifically divided into reclamation, permeable structures, sea reclamation and open sea use. As well as oil spill, leakage of dangerous chemicals and discharge of other pollutants, it is required to collect the background information of the sea area where the incident occurred, carry out field survey, analyze the basic situation of the incident and the characteristics of ecological damage, determine the assessment content, identify the damage assessment factors and ecologically sensitive targets, determine the scope and method of assessment investigation, prepare the assessment work plan, and then carry out assessment, screen the ecological factors such as water quality, sediment, biology, hydrodynamic force, scouring and silting, and compare the changes before and after the incident to determine the scope of damage (GB/T 34546.1-2017, GB/T 34546.2-2017). Tang Xiaoqing and others' article "The Key Premise of Compensation for Environmental Damage: Judgment of Causality" mentioned that the judgment of causality directly determines whether the economic loss of environmental resources damaged by pollution accidents can be compensated. However, due to the lagging understanding, the research in this area is still blank. Starting from the causal chain of environmental damage, that is, Pollutant (A) exited from the source (B) diffuses through the medium (C) reaches the damage receptor (D) causes damage (E), the process of judging the causal relationship of environmental damage is put forward, which is: (1) Identifying the source of pollution and pollutants; (2) Confirming the damage and judging whether there are environmental resources damaged; (3) Establishing exposure route and identifying the path of pollutants from pollution source to receptor; (4) Proving the correlation between pollutants and damage results. (China Population, Resources and Environment, Vol,22, No.8) Lu Yulong, et al., in the article "Research on Causality Judgment Method of Environmental Damage Assessment of Water Pollution", mentioned that causality judgment is the key and difficult point of environmental damage assessment. Relevant presumption theories include: whether there is a relationship theory, facts prove itself theory, epidemic causal management theory, probability causal relationship theory, indirect disproof theory, etc., and based on the causal chain of environmental damage caused by pollutants from source emission to receptor through diffusion and migration path. The evidence chain of causality is constructed, and the seven steps of judging causality are put forward, namely: (1) Collecting evidence and clarifying the facts of pollution discharge and ecological damage; (2) Investigating and verify the consistency between emissions and pollution in the medium; (3) Analyzing the rationality of transmission path from the transmission diffusion mechanism; (4) Judging the possibility of pollution through environmental monitoring; (5) Identifying the whole exposure path unit and determining whether it can form a complete exposure path; (6) Analyzing the consistency between exposure and damage; (7) Comprehensive judgment, giving the conclusion whether there is causal relationship. (Environmental Science and Management, Vol,41, No.11) The Environmental Planning Institute of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, in the article "Recommended Methods for Environmental Damage Identification and Assessment (Second Edition)", mentioned that the causal relationship between environmental pollution and environmental damage facts is divided into two parts: (1) The causal relationship between environmental exposure and environmental damage; (2) Establishment and verification of exposure path of environmental pollutants from source to receptor. (General Office of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, Huan Ban

[2014] No.90) Liu Anping and others mentioned in the article "Determination of Causality of Chronic Health Damage Caused by EnvironmentalPollution" that chronic health damage caused by environmental pollution is particularly prominent, but it is a highly scientific work to determine its causality, which requires strict determination procedures, careful determination ideas and practical determination procedures. This paper draws on the judging conditions of epidemiological judging method, that is, (1) There is a factor causing damage in the polluted area, and other factors are unlikely to cause similar damage under the same conditions; (2) The factor existed before the damage occurred;

(3) There is a dose-response relationship between the action intensity of this factor and the damage effect,(4) A certain number of people in the polluted area are damaged; (5) The damage mechanism of this factor conforms to the biological theory, and draws lessons from the basic procedure of indirect disproof judgment, namely: (1) Pollutants produced by sewage enterprises; (2) Discharge to the outside environment; (3) Transformation and diffusion through environmental media; (4) The human body comes into contact with the pollutant; (5) The basic procedure of determining the causal relationship of chronic health damage caused by environmental pollution is put forward, which takes a causal relationship as the main line, including: (1) Determining the main pollution sources and pollutants; (2) Determining the way and process of sewage discharge; (3) Determining the facts of environmental pollution and migration and transformation; (4) Determining the regional environment and local residents' exposure facts; (5) Determining the damage facts. (Chinese Journal of Social Medicine, Vol.27, No.5) Although the above-mentioned technical guidelines on marine ecological damage assessment mention "determining the possible range of marine ecological damage by comprehensively using methods such as site reconnaissance, environmental monitoring, biological monitoring, model prediction or remote sensing analysis (such as aerial photographs, satellite images, etc.), on the basis of which marine ecological damage confirmation and causal relationship judgment are carried out to finally determine the range and degree of marine ecological damage", it does not involve the causal relationship judgment method. Other papers and guidelines on the methods of determining the causal relationship of environmental damage only stay in the conceptual and step-by-step description of analyzing and determining the causal relationship, and lack of specific methods that can determine the causal relationship of marine ecological environmental damage and supporting technical support of auxiliary models. To sum up, these guidelines, guidelines and papers mainly focus on: 1. To stipulate the general principles, procedures, contents and methods of identification and assessment of ecological environmental damage and damage investigation;

2. To stipulate the assessment procedures, contents, methods and requirements of marine ecological damage caused by marine oil spill, and provide technical basis for accident investigation, treatment and calculation of ecological damage costs; 3. It is suggested to establish a causal chain based on the environmental damage caused by pollutants reaching the receptor from the source through the diffusion and migration path, so as to determine the flow of judgment work. Although the Technical Guidelines for Ecological Damage Assessment of Marine Oil Spill mentioned the use of means and technologies such as field investigation, remote sensing interpretation, oil spill identification, sample analysis and testing, and numerical simulation of oil spill drift and diffusion, etc., to identify the impact and harm of oil spill on seawater environment, marine sediment environment, tidal flat environment, marine

life, marine ecosystem and typical ecosystem, it did not mention the content of causality judgment. The causal chain of environmental damage from the source to the receptor through diffusion and migration path is not clearly defined, and the preparation requirements of the assessment report only generally put forward "give relevant assessment conclusions". The existing technical methods for identification and assessment of ecological environmental damage still have the following shortcomings: 1. It is mainly suitable for the identification and evaluation of single and isolated damage events, and lacks the evaluation method of superposition effect of multiple damage events;

2. Mainly pay attention to the damage of ecological environment and its ecosystem service status, and lack of evaluation methods for the damage of ecosystem structure, process and function; 3. It is not matched and connected with the available auxiliary evaluation technology; 4. The damage of ecological environment damage to the health of exposed people is not considered. These deficiencies have led to some studies failing to fully understand the causes and consequences of marine ecological environment damage.

For example, according to the results of the ecological experiment of marine enclosure in Laizhou Bay, Bohai Sea, it is simply inferred that "under the condition of average annual concentration, petroleum hydrocarbon as a whole can not have a significant impact on the growth of phytoplankton in Bohai Sea", without in-depth analysis of the causes of the small change in phytoplankton density, that is, the oil spill harms zooplankton and other marine organisms at the same time, resulting in a corresponding reduction in the biomass of the upper food chain used to consume phytoplankton. For another example, on one hand, the occurrence and control of red tide in China's offshore waters are related to eutrophication, pollutant discharge and environmental conditions, but on the other hand, the source term contribution of alien species invasion should be fully considered, otherwise, the chain and judgment of causality will be incomplete. (Wang Xiulin et al., Marine Environmental Capacity of Main Chemical Pollutants in Bohai Sea, Science Press)

For example, although the study on the origin of green tide of Enteromorpha prolfera in the Yellow Sea confirmed that there was a correlation between species and temporal and spatial distribution with the green algae on laver culture rafts in northern Jiangsu, it ignored a large number of reclamation projects in Jiaozhou Bay and the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, resulting in changes in water flow, scouring and silting conditions and global climate change, which affected the structure, process and function of the ecosystem (Special Issue: Green Tides in the Yellow Sea, Estuarine coastal and shelf science, Vol.163, Part A).

SUMMARY

(1) Purpose of the invention

In order to overcome the shortcomings of the prior art, the invention provides a judgment method of marine ecological environment damage. It includes six types of causal chain models of marine ecological environment damage, four types of causal judgment criteria and indicators with logical progressive relationship, multi-type auxiliary evaluation model architecture schemes matched with criterions, environmental baselines of marine eco-environmental damage, damage degree judgment criteria and index system construction schemes classified by region, sub-item and grade, and quantitative judgment method of damage degree and damage source term contribution of vulnerable factors. Therefore, it provides a set of clear, simple, systematic and effective technical support for judging the damage and consequences of marine ecological environment and human health caused by sea-related projects, production and living pollution emissions and sudden marine contamination accidents, as well as for the identification and assessment, accountability and compensation of damage, and the active and effective measures of prevention, disposal and environmental restoration of pollution damage.

(2) Technical scheme

According to the technical scheme adopted by the invention to solve the technical problems, a judgment method of marine ecological environment damage is provided, which comprises six types of causal chain models of marine ecological environment damage, four types of causal judgment criteria and indicators with logical progressive relationship, multi-type auxiliary evaluation model architecture schemes matched with criterions, environmental baselines of marine eco-environmental damage, damage degree judgment criteria and index system construction schemes classified by region, sub-item and grade, and quantitative judgment method of damage degree and damage source term contribution of vulnerable factors.

Specifically, the six causal chain models of marine eco-environmental damage include persistent pollutant marine eco-environmental damage mechanism model CJCM1, analysis model of approach and consequence that harm the health of the exposed population due to the marine eco-environmental damage CJCM2, causal chain models CJCM3, CJCM4 and CJCM5-of the imbalance of the marine ecosystem and the frequent occurrence of disasters caused by the invasion of alien organisms, the discharge of production and life pollution, and the sea reclamation and dredging, causal chain model CJCM6 of damage and consequence of pollutant damage source term and classification.

The four types of causal judgment criteria have a logically progressive sequence of judgments, and each type of criterion has its own specific judgment index.

In particular, the first category is source term occurrence criteria.

Reason: there are known and unknown damage events.

Result: inevitably, it will cause a certain type, degree and duration of marine ecological environment damage after the events. The type and degree of damage should be specifically determined according to the type, intensity and distribution, disposal status and environmental conditions of source terms. Therefore, the occurrence of the event can be determined based on the event reports, literature and media records, monitoring and traceability identification data, and further analyse whether there is an unknown damage source event.

Judgment indicator: the type of single or multiple damage source terms, the evidence that the event did happen, the time and location of the event. Among them, the damage source terms are divided into three types of sea-related projects, production and living pollution emissions, and sudden contamination accidents. The damage source terms of sea-related projects can be subdivided into reclamation, dredging, offshore dams and bridges, coastal roads, and submarine projects. The production and living pollutants refer to petroleum, COD, nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, pesticides, heavy metals, chemicals, residual chlorine of cold and heat chlorination, non-indigenous organisms, pathogens, suspended sediment and microplastics. Further, these pollutants can be subdivided into chemical, physical and biological pollutants. The damage source terms of sudden contamination accidents can be subdivided into oil spills, leakage of hazardous chemicals and leakage of radioactive substances.

The second category is source term pollution criteria.

Reason 1: emission of persistent pollutants

Result 1: the types of marine eco-environmental damage are complex, with high toxicity and long duration.

Reason 2: emission of non-persistent pollutants

Result 2: the marine eco-environment damage types are relatively simple, with slighter damage degree and shorter duration time.

Volatile or degradable pollutants such as gasoline fraction are non-persistent pollutants. Less volatile or degradable pollutants such as diesel fraction are weak persistent pollutants. The pollutants such as crude oil vacuum distillate, which are difficult to volatilize or degrade are medium persistent pollutants, and those like crude oil vacuum residue which are more difficult to volatilize or degrade, are strong persistent pollutants.

Judgment indicator: composition of damage source terms and pollution hazard. Specific indicators include main components, contents, permanence and diffusivity of pollutants in production and domestic pollution emissions and sudden contamination accidents, and the substances and pollution hazards of the marine engineering damage source item.

The third category is classification consequence criteria.

Reason: there are many different states of damage source terms in marine environment.

Result: corresponding to the action on the multi-habitat and multi-trophic marine ecological environment, it causes various types of damage and further causes various types of damage consequences. Specifically, sea surface and semi-submersible floating pollutants act on sea bodies and marine organisms; Volatile evaporative pollutants act on the air environment and exposed human and animals; dissolved and chemically dispersed pollutants act on sea bodies and marine organisms; pollutants that drift to the coast act on beaches and intertidal organisms; sedimentary pollutants act on sedimentary layers and benthic organisms; pollutants absorbed by organisms act on food chain organisms when they are in foraging state, while in the degraded state, they act on contaminated sea bodies, beaches, sedimentary layers, and marine organisms.

Judgment indicator: the status of damage source terms in multi-habitat and multi trophic marine ecological environment, the classification damage and further classification consequences.

The specific indicators of the multi-habitat marine ecological environment include sea surface and seawater environment in different water depths, sea surface air environment, beach environment, sediment environment, and the spawning grounds, feeding grounds, wintering grounds and migratory passages of marine organisms.

The specific indicators of the multi-trophic marine ecological environment include marine organisms such as microorganisms, zooplankton, fish eggs and larvae, benthos, intertidal organisms, economic fish, nektons and marine mammals, as well as birds and exposed people.

The states of the damage source term in multi-habitat and multi-trophic marine ecological environment refers to the spreading, drifting and diffusing of insoluble liquid pollutants on the sea surface and the transport and diffusing with the current after submerging in a certain depth of water; the dissolved and chemically dispersed liquid pollutants or particulate pollutants enter the seawater and diffuse with the current; the pollutants are transported to the sedimentary layers and beaches along with the current to form sedimentation and landing pollutants states, which further disperse into the sedimentary layers and beaches; marine organisms that inhabit the sea surface, sea water body, sedimentary layer and beach are exposed to pollutants and absorb, ingest and degrade pollutants; the pollutants entering the marine organisms are foraged by other marine organisms along with the food chain, and form bioaccumulation and biomagnification; evaporation liquid pollutants enter the air environment and expose to people, birds and mammals, occupying and changing the sea area.

The specific types of classification damages include barrier to water-gas exchange, reduction of self-purification ability, water quality and photosynthesis rate of seawater environment, toxicity to marine organisms and birds, hazards to the health of exposed people, damage to the environmental quality of the beach and the sea land boundary, harm to environmental quality of sediments, invasion of alien marine organisms, changes in spatial distribution of shoreline and water depth, damage to spawning grounds, feeding grounds and wintering grounds, and barriers to migration routes.

The specific types of further classification consequences include the deterioration of water quality indicators such as pH, dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD5, nitrogen and phosphorus content, water temperature fluctuation, oil content, particular chemical pollutants content, harmful pathogen content, microplastics, suspended particulate matter and so on, the increase of area with regional sea water quality exceeding the relevant national standards, the decrease of survival rate and biomass of zooplankton, fish eggs and larvae, the increase of economic fish and nektons mortality, the occurrence of escape, the increase of phytoplankton actual measurement due to the decrease of phytoplankton consumption, injury or death of birds, increase in incidence rate of related diseases in exposed population, health damage and escape of marine mammals, the increase of mortality and decrease of production in intertidal zone, the increase of benthos mortality and the decrease of benthos production, competition of invasive species for living space and food of local species, reduction of biodiversity, the destruction of marine biological population and food web, changes of regional hydrodynamic environment and erosion and deposition environment, loss of marine habitat, change of suitable habitat environment medium, water flow condition, nutrient and bait supply, damage to marine living resources, damage to the structure and process of material and energy transfer and ecosystem service function of marine ecosystem, damage to the balance and stability of marine ecosystems and frequent occurrence of marine ecological disasters.

The fourth category is spatial and temporal distribution criteria.

Reason: the quantity and distribution of damage source terms entering the marine environment vary with the types of events, disposal conditions and environmental conditions.

Result: the corresponding amount of occupation or entry into the multi-habitat and multi-trophic ecological environment, as well as the corresponding damage consequence and space-time distribution should be supplemented by investigation, evidence collection and calculation test judgment.

Judgment indicator: the source intensity, spatial position and duration of damage source terms, the source intensity reduction of countermeasures to mitigate damage source term and corresponding spatial position and duration, the damage degree grading standard of classified sub-item damage and its consequences, the spatial distribution and duration of classified sub-item damage.

Specific indicators include total occupation, discharge, recovery and drifting amount to coast, dissolved amount dispersed into water body, natural volatilization, dissolved amount into water body, amount adsorbed and ingested by organisms, degradation, seawater quality, increase of sediment and coastal zone area with quality exceeding the standard, biomass exceeding the standard condition, marine organism population and food network, regional hydrodynamic and scouring and silting environment change, marine organism habitat loss, suitable habitat environment medium, water flow conditions, changes in nutrient and bait supply, marine biodiversity, biomass, fishery resources, decreased service function of marine ecosystem, damaged balance and stability of marine ecosystem, types, frequency and area of regional marine ecological disasters, and increased epidemic incidence of exposed population.

The causal relationship determination model used to describe the above four types of causal relationship determination criteria and typical determination indicators with logical progressive order is shown in Figure 1.

The persistent pollutant marine eco-environmental damage mechanism model CJCM1 describes the following causal chain.

After the persistent pollutants enter the marine environment, the water-insoluble components will drift and diffuse in the sea surface and different water depths, the volatile components will evaporate in the air with natural weathering, and the soluble or chemically dispersed components will enter the water body. When pollutants come into contact with coastal, sedimentary or marine organisms, they will migrate and transform among different media, be absorbed and accumulated by organisms, and further may form bioaccumulation and biomagnification through food chain and enter human body. When the organism is exposed to persistent pollutants, the function and structure of cells and molecules will be disordered, and the self-repair of cells and molecules will be triggered. When the concentration of persistent pollutants reaches a certain level, it will lead to excessive repair or blocked repair, and then produce a series of toxicological effects. Toxicological effects specifically refer to the reduction of phytoplankton division rate and photosynthesis rate, causing tissue necrosis and fibrosis, resulting in the decline of survival rate of offspring, genetic variation, inhibition of immune system function, the formation of cell proliferation, tumour and malignant tumour, which will damage the structure, process and function of the ecosystem and endanger the health of the exposed population.

Persistent pollutants cause damage to marine ecological environment in the process of environmental weathering, migration, transformation and biological pump in multi habitat and multi-trophic level. The damage mechanism model CJCM1 constructed by causality chain is shown in Figure 2.

The analysis model of approach and consequence that harm the health of the exposed population due to the marine eco-environmental damage CJCM2 describes the following chain of causality.

Persistent pollutants enter the human body through respiratory intake and skin contact absorption. Further, they can enter fish, meat, milk and dairy products first through the food chain of marine organisms, and then they are eaten by human beings. They also can be introduced into the baby through the placenta and lactation. Once persistent pollutants are concentrated in human organs, fat and fiber, it may cause endocrine disorders, neurobehavioral disorders, reproductive and immune system damage, cancer and tumour, and dysplasia. Some of these symptoms will lead to higher incidence rate of related diseases in exposed people.

The path and consequence analysis model CJCM2 of persistent pollutants entering the exposed population and causing health hazards based on causality chain is shown in Figure 3.

The causality chain model CJCM3 of the imbalance of the marine ecosystem and the frequent occurrence of disasters caused by the invasion of alien organisms describes the following causality chain.

Once the alien marine organisms invade the local waters successfully, they will compete with the local species for living space and food. Due to the lack of natural enemies, it is easy to form a large area of single dominant community, and other species will lose their suitable habitat, resulting in the reduction of biodiversity, the destruction of local population and food web structure, resulting in the imbalance of ecosystem and frequent disasters.

The causality chain model CJCM4 of the imbalance of the marine ecosystem and the frequent occurrence of disasters caused by the discharge of production and life pollution describes the following causality chain.

If the production and living pollution emissions exceed the environmental capacity, the self-purification capacity of the regional marine environment will be damaged. Further, the deterioration of marine environmental quality and eutrophication will lead to the increase of suitable species, the loss of suitable habitat for non-suitable species, the damage of biological population and food web, and the decrease of diversity, resulting in the imbalance of ecosystem and frequent disasters.

The causality chain model CJCM4 of the imbalance of the marine ecosystem and the frequent occurrence of disasters caused by the sea reclamation and dredging describes the following causality chain.

Reclamation and dredging projects occupy the marine environment, causing habitat damage and shoreline water depth changes, resulting in changes in regional marine dynamics and scouring and silting environment, and then causing changes in habitat conditions, nutrients and bait supply, as well as damage to the growth and reproduction of marine organisms, reducing biodiversity, resulting in ecosystem imbalance and frequent disasters.

The causal chain models-CJCM3, CJCM4 and CJCM5-of the imbalance of the marine ecosystem and the frequent occurrence of disasters caused by the invasion of alien organisms, the discharge of production and life pollution, and the sea reclamation and dredging are shown in the left, middle and right in Figure 4.

The causal chain model CJCM6 of damage and consequence of pollutant damage source term and classification describes the following causal chain.

After entering the marine environment, pollutants may present different states due to their own composition and environmental conditions. Correspondingly, they will act on some marine ecological environment with multi-habitat and multi-nutrient level, causing different types of damage and further corresponding consequences.

The insoluble liquid pollutants mainly act on the deep seawater, plankton, nektonic organisms, fish eggs and larvae. The evaporative pollutants formed by volatile pollutants mainly act on the air environment and people, birds and marine mammals. Dissolved and chemically dispersed liquid pollutants mainly act on seawater, plankton, nektonic organisms, fish eggs and larvae. The landing pollutants transported to the beach mainly act on the beach and intertidal organisms. The sediment pollutants transported to the sediments mainly act on the sediments and benthos. The pollutants absorbed by organisms mainly act on the marine organisms that absorb pollutants and the upper food chain organisms that feed on them. The products of biodegradation of pollutants mainly act on the polluted seawater, beach, sediment and marine organisms.

Such damages as reducing water quality, poisoning marine organisms, birds and marine mammals, and harming the health of exposed people may be caused by the combined action of multiple source terms. However, the damage of blocking water-air exchange, reducing the self-purification capacity of water body, reducing the rate of photosynthesis, damaging the environmental quality of beach and sea land boundary, damaging the environmental quality of sediment, poisoning benthos and intertidal organisms, reducing pollution damage and repairing the ecological environment are caused by a single source term state.

Similarly, several types of damage may lead to the deterioration of water quality indicators such as dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD5 and oil content, the increase of exceeding standard area, the decrease of survival rate and biomass of zooplankton, fish eggs and larvae, the increase of mortality of economic fish and nektonic organisms, and escape, the damage of material, energy transmission structure and process, as well as the ecosystem service function of marine ecosystem at the same time. However, the injury or death of birds, increase in incidence rate of related diseases in exposed population, health damage and escape of marine mammals, the deterioration of coastline environmental quality, the increase of mortality of production in intertidal zone, the deterioration of sediment environmental quality, the increase of phytoplankton actual measurement due to the decrease of phytoplankton consumption, the improved quality of the marine environment and the significantly increased amount of pollutant consuming bacteria are further caused by a single type of damage.

The detailed chain structure of causal chain model CJCM6 of damage and consequence of pollutant damage source term and classification is shown in Figure 5.

The architecture scheme of the multi-type auxiliary evaluation model matching with the judgment criteria is as follows.

The model system includes causality judgment model, multi-type auxiliary evaluation model, investigation and test diagnostic evaluation method and business process, marine ecological environment damage baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and indicator system.

Specifically, the specific composition of the multi-type auxiliary evaluation model is described below.

The main auxiliary models used for the evaluation and determination of the first category of source term occurrence criteria are as follows: remote sensing monitoring model and database of damage source terms, remote sensing monitoring model and database of damage consequence, fingerprint identification analysis model and database of pollutants, and pollution traceability analysis model.

The main auxiliary models used for the evaluation and determination of the second category of source term pollution criteria are as follows: the retrieval model and database of pollutant species and components, the acute and chronic toxicity evaluation model and database of pollutants.

The main auxiliary models used for the evaluation and determination of the third category of classification consequence criteria are as follows: damage mechanism, environmental weathering model and database.

The main auxiliary models used for the evaluation and determination of the fourth category of spatial and temporal distribution criteria are as follows: damage source term analysis model and database, dynamic model of marine ecological impact of damage source term, ecological damage assessment model of multi-habitat and multi-trophic level, health risk assessment model for marine pollution exposed population. Among them, dynamic model of marine ecological impact of damage source term includes the following dynamic models and databases: regional current baseline and impact model and database, sea surface wind field diagnosis model and pollutant drift model, regional scouring and silting baseline model and change analysis model, regional water quality baseline and impact model and database, and phytoplankton impact dynamic model and database.

The investigation test diagnosis evaluation method and the business process include known, existing and due relevant evaluation methods and business process. The marine ecological environment damage baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and indicator system include damage source terms and categories, vulnerable factors and indicator items, and qualitative and quantitative judgment indexes of damage degree level in different regions. These assessment methods, operational processes, criteria and indicator systems complement each other with various types of auxiliary assessment models, providing support for the determination of marine ecological environment damage.

The architecture scheme of multi-type auxiliary evaluation model matching with the judgment criteria is shown in Figure 6.

The judgment criteria and indicator system construction scheme of marine eco environmental damage baseline and damage degree based on sub-region, classification and grade, and the quantitative determination method of damage degree of vulnerable factors and contribution of damage source term are as follows.

Step 1

Summarize and extract the representative vulnerable factors corresponding to the damage source items from the above causal chain model, judgment model and auxiliary evaluation model, which further include the categories of vulnerable marine ecological environment factors and the representative index items, such as the contents of pH, oil content, dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD5, benzene series, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, benzopyrene, chemicals, radioactivity index, suspended particulate matter, micro plastics and pathogen in water, the contents of petroleum, heavy metals, pesticides, benzene series, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, benzopyrene and chemicals in the sediment and biological quality, the composition and quantity of biological species, the habitat density and biomass of phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish eggs, larvae and juvenile sea fish, benthos, intertidal benthos and fishery resources, the structure of local species, alien populations and food web, the location, range, time, suitable species, environmental media, temperature, salinity, water flow conditions, nutrients and bait supply of fish spawning grounds, feeding grounds, wintering grounds and migration channels in the habitat state, the regional marine dynamics and scouring and silting environment, material and energy transfer structure and process, biodiversity, system balance and stability and ecosystem service function in the ecosystem, the incidence rate of exposed people of epidemic diseases about five sense organs, skin, digestive, respiratory, endocrine, nervous and genetic systems caused by pollutants.

Step 2

According to different regions and damage source terms, the criteria and indicators for determining the environmental baseline and grading damage degree of each relevant vulnerable factor are determined respectively.

Specifically, the criterion for determining the environmental baseline of vulnerable factors is described below. It is the indicator value that can maintain the material and energy transmission structure and process of regional marine ecosystem in a good, balanced and stable state, and can realize its normal ecosystem service function. The criterion for judging the damage degree of vulnerable factors is that within a certain time and space, the damage degree of vulnerable factors caused by all the damage source terms with corresponding causality is proportional to the difference between the current value of vulnerable factors and its environmental baseline index value. That is to say, the greater the difference is, the heavier the damage degree is; the smaller the difference is, the lighter the damage degree is.

Step 3

For a number of known and unknown damage source terms, the cumulative damage degree to the corresponding vulnerable factors is quantitatively determined. The quantitative calculation formula is shown in formula (1)

ADDijk j1 ZlTVi,,,l =DVi,jk - BVi,jk M.

Wherein,ADDijk is the cumulative damage degree of the kth vulnerable factor in the

jth periodofregionith.

TVi,,k, is the quantity value of the kth vulnerable factor damaged by the th damage

source term in the jth periodofregionith.

DVi,,k is the measured value of the kth vulnerable factor in the jthperiodofregion

ith

BVi,,k is the environmental baseline indicator value of the kth vulnerable factor in

the jth periodofregionith.

Step 4

For a specific known or unknown damage source term, the contribution value to the corresponding vulnerable factors is determined quantitatively. The quantitative calculation formula is shown in formula (2) = TVi DV - DVi,j=Je_1,k -- 1 TVi,j,k,lem (2). jij iOj,k,l=m- =Di,j,k ii=O1k Z.iJO 1 ijklm

Wherein, TVi,j,k,l=m is the contribution value of the mth damage source term in JO

period to the kth vulnerable factor in the jth periodofregionith.

DVi,,k has the same meaning as formula (1).

DVi,j=JOl,kis the measured value of the kth vulnerable factor in j0-1 period of area

ith

TVi,j,klem is the quantity value of the kth vulnerable factor in the jth period of the ith

region damaged by the Ith damage source term except term m.

(3) Advantages and benefits

The invention has the advantages of systematically creating a judgment method of marine ecological environment damage, including six types of causal chain models of marine ecological environment damage, four types of causal judgment criteria and indicators with logical progressive relationship, multi-type auxiliary evaluation model architecture schemes matched with criterions, environmental baselines of marine eco environmental damage, damage degree judgment criteria and index system construction schemes classified by region, sub-item and grade, and quantitative judgment method of damage degree and damage source term contribution of vulnerable factors.

For sea related projects such as reclamation, dredging, offshore dams and bridges, coastal roads and submarine projects, the discharge of chemical, physical and biological pollutants from production and living pollution sources such as petroleum, COD, nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, pesticides, heavy metals, chemicals, residual chlorine of cold and heat chlorination, alien organisms, pathogens, suspended sediment and micro plastics, as well as marine oil spill, hazardous chemicals leakage, radioactive material leakage and other sudden pollution incidents, the invention constructs a causal chain based on damage mechanism, approach, process and consequence analysis in detail, and forms causal judgment criteria and indicators for judging the occurrence and pollution characteristics of damage source terms, damage consequence of multi-habitat and multi nutrient level classification, temporal and spatial distribution of source terms and damage, as well as a matching auxiliary model and indicator system construction scheme, and a quantitative judgment method of damage degree and contribution of damage source term to vulnerable factors.

Therefore, the invention provides a set of clear, simple, systematic and effective technical support for scientifically judging the damage and consequences of marine ecological environment and human health caused by sea-related projects, production and living pollution emissions and sudden marine contamination accidents, as well as for the identification and assessment, accountability and compensation of damage, and the active and effective measures of prevention, disposal and environmental restoration of pollution damage.

The invention creates a causality judgment method for marine ecological environment damage, as well as the supporting auxiliary model and indicator system construction scheme, and a quantitative judgment method for damage degree of vulnerable factors and contribution of damage source terms. It makes up for the defects of scattered indicators, which are related to damage source terms, damage factor, environmental baseline and damage degree assessment. Meanwhile, it solves the problems of the deficiency of the method, the difficulty of using the measured value to determine the degree of damage and the contribution of the source terms, and the neglect of determining the cumulative damage caused by the coexistence of multiple source terms. It fills the blank of causality judgment method in marine ecological environment damage identification and assessment technology.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE FIGURES

Figure 1 The schematic diagram of causality judgment model with logical progressive order.

Figure 2 The causal chain model schematic diagram of persistent pollutant marine eco-environmental damage mechanism model CJCM1.

Figure 3 The schematic diagram of causal chain model CJCM2 of health hazards of persistent pollutants to exposed population.

Figure 4 The schematic diagrams of causal chain models-CJCM3, CJCM4 and CJCM5-of the imbalance of the marine ecosystem and the frequent occurrence of disasters caused by the invasion of alien organisms, the discharge of production and life pollution and the sea related projects.

Figure 5 The schematic diagrams of causal chain model CJCM6 of damage and consequence of pollutant damage source term and classification.

Figure 6 The schematic diagram of the architecture scheme of multi-type auxiliary evaluation model matching with the judgment criteria.

Figure 7 The causality confirmation figure of the impact of oil spill and hazardous chemicals accidents on water quality in Bohai Sea in this century.

Figure 8 The causality confirmation figure of the impact of oil spill and hazardous chemicals accidents on water quality in the Yellow Sea in this century.

Figure 9 The relevant control measures and effect confirmation figure of alien biological invasion disasters in China's coastal waters.

Figure 10 The interannual distribution of reclamation area in Jiaozhou Bay and Caofeidian sea area.

Figure 11 The interannual distribution of green tide of Enteromorphaproifera in the northern Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea.

Figure 12 The causality confirmation figure of the impact of sea related projects on the species and quantity of marine organisms in Yangshan deepwater port area.

Figure 13 The interannual distribution of cancer incidence rate in mainland China that has increased over the past century.

Figure 14 The mutual confirmation figure of the estimated value of the newly added area beyond the standard after the "7.16" accident in Dalian and the measured value added in the communique.

Figure 15 The location and numbering of 9 sections of common routes shared by several ports in China's coastal waters.

DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

The invention relates to a method for judging the causal relationship of marine ecological environment damage. Including six types of causal chain models of marine ecological environment damage, four types of causal relationship judgment criteria and indicators with logical progressive relationship, multi-type auxiliary evaluation model system architecture scheme matched with judgment criteria, marine ecological environment damage environmental baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and indicator system construction scheme classified by region and sub-item. The relationship between them is as follows: the six representative causal chain models of marine ecological environment damage, namely CJCM1, CJCM2, CJCM3, CJCM4, CJCM5 and CJCM6, are constructed to indirectly prove the harm of persistent pollutants to marine ecological environment and the health of exposed people from the aspects of mechanism, approach, process and consequences. The marine ecosystem imbalance and frequent disasters caused by foreign biological invasion, production and living pollution discharge, reclamation and dredging, and the multi-habitat and multi-trophic marine ecological environment damage caused by pollutants damage source terms and various types of damage consequences. On this basis, the criteria and indicators for judging causality are determined, which are aimed at four key links: source term occurrence, pollution characteristics, classification consequences and spatial-temporal distribution. Make clear the causes and consequences that cause damage and have a logical progressive relationship, and put forward multi-type auxiliary evaluation models that assist qualitative and quantitative analysis to evaluate and determine indicators, thus forming a multi-type auxiliary evaluation model architecture scheme, environmental baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and index system construction scheme, and a quantitative judgment method for damage degree of vulnerable factors and contribution of damage source terms,It provides a set of clear, simple, systematic and effective technical support for judging the causal relationship for scientifically judging the damage and consequences caused by sea-related projects, production and living pollution emissions and sudden pollution incidents to marine ecological environment and human health, for the identification and assessment of damage, accountability and compensation, and for actively and effectively adopting countermeasures and measures for prevention, disposal and environmental restoration of pollution damage.

According to CJCM1, CJCM2 and CJCM6, the mechanism model of marine ecological environment damage caused by persistent pollutants, the causal chain model of damage source terms and classified damage and consequences, sudden marine oil spill and hazardous chemicals incidents will lead to environmental weathering, migration and transformation, and biotransmission of persistent pollutants in marine environment, which will produce a series of toxic effects on multi-habitat and multi-trophic marine organisms, and even damage marine ecosystem materials, energy transmission structures and processes, and ecosystem service functions, thus endangering the health of exposed people. According to the causal chain models CJCM3, CJCM4, CJCM5 of marine ecosystem imbalance and frequent disasters caused by foreign biological invasion, production and living pollution discharge, reclamation and dredging, The discharge of ballast water from ships carrying alien organisms, the continuous discharge of petroleum, COD, nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, cold, heat, residual chlorine and microplastics from fixed and mobile pollution sources along the coast and at sea, and the sea-related projects such as reclamation and dredging may lead to the invasion of alien organisms, the damage of self-purification ability in sea areas, the deterioration and eutrophication of environmental quality, and the occupation or change of biological habitats. As a result, the growth of suitable species and the loss of suitable habitat for non-suitable species, the change of original habitat, nutrition and bait supply, the destruction of local population and food network structure, the damage of marine life growth and reproduction, the decrease of biodiversity, and the imbalance of ecosystem and frequent disasters.

Causality judgment criteria and indicators can be used to make causal judgment with logical progressive order, which are as follows:

The first category-the occurrence criteria of source terms, which are caused by the known and unknown sudden pollution incidents of oil spill and hazardous chemicals leakage, the discharge of exotic organisms with ballast water of ships, the continuous discharge of pollutants such as petroleum, COD, nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, cold, heat, residual chlorine and microplastics from fixed and mobile pollution sources along the coast and at sea, and the sea-related engineering incidents such as reclamation and dredging. As a result, the above-mentioned types of marine ecological environment will inevitably be created to a certain extent and duration after the incident. Therefore, the occurrence of the event can be judged according to the event report, literature and media records, monitoring and tracing identification data, and whether there is an unknown damage source event can be analyzed, such as the following cases.

Case 1: Collecting the general situation of oil spill and hazardous chemicals pollution accidents in Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea since this century (Table 1) and the actually measured and published data of marine water quality exceeding the standard area of the State Oceanic Administration, through the judgment of causality and mutual confirmation with the measured data (Figure 7-Figure 8), it is confirmed that the large scale and above oil spill accidents in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea since this century have caused serious pollution damage in a large area, resulting in the peak of water quality exceeding the standard area in the sea area where the accident occurred in the year. The damage degree and duration are in direct proportion to the total amount and persistence of oil spill into the sea, and its harm to marine ecological environment and human health at the top of food chain is worrying.

Table 1 Overview of oil spill and hazardous chemicals pollution accidents in Bohai Sea

and Yellow Sea since this century

occurrence Nameof Brief Pollution ouee accident site description t Oil species Related literature of accident The Maltese Tasman tanker There is a Gao zhenhui et al., sea oil East sea "tasman crude oil drift theory, method and case 2002.11.2 tanker area of ap u ts lengthof4.6 lightcrude study of ecological 3 damaged Dagukou, ollided knd a damage assessment of and Tianjin with width of marine oil spill, ocean leaked China's 2.6km. press "Shunkai No.1" A large Blowout Southern amount of Form a large accident waters of crude oil area of oil Bohai crude 2004.04 in Bohai Caofeidian enters the spill pollution Oilfield nearby waters Mali, Study on Satellite Remote Sensing Portuguese Monitoring of Oil Spill tanker in Bohai Sea Area, The 'Artigo Dalian Maritime 2005.04.0 "Artigo" Sea area which ran A crude oil University tanker ran near Dalian aground on spill occurred crude oil 4 tanrrn Port the rocks, agroundwa was damaged at the bottom of the cabin Crude oil leakage Bohai caused by Loss of crudeoil oil tanker fishery 2006 pollution Bohai Sea accident in resources and crude oil Xia Jun, Marine Oil accident Bohai Sea marine SilAcdnsTs acietand oil theft ecology Spill Accidents Test in offshore Chinese Environmental oil fields Laws, https:www. Sipfiels Schinadialogue.net Ships ofSt. articleshow Vincent's Loss of singlech4433- Losses "Jinsheng "Jinsheng" fishery at-sea 2007.05.1 " sank oil Yantai sea and Korean resources and fuel oil 2 . area "Golden re spill Rose" ecolo collided and gy capsized Dalian Dalian and After the oil The floating Tu zhonghang, Dalian 6 "7.16" oil its unloading oil at sea oil oil pollution accident spill surroundin ofthe reaches investigation and occurrence Nameof Brief Pollution time accident site description status Oil species Related literature of accident accident g waters tanker 183km2, of monitoring, Beijing stopped, the which the news, July 20, 2010, injection of heavily A16 desulfurizer polluted area into the oil is 50 km2 pipeline did not stop, resulting in sudden explosion and fire, and a large amount of crude oil leaked into the sea Pressure water injection on platform B23 and cuttings re injection on platform C, The species State Oceanic the and diversity Administration, Report Penglai operation of of plankton on Accident 2011.06- 19-3 oil platform are obviously Bohai crude Investigation and 2011.09 spill Bohai Sea encounters reduced,and oil Treatment of Joint accident ultra-high acietpressure, the structure of biological Investigation Team of presure, of bologcalPenglai 19-3 Oilfield resulting in community is Oil Spill Accident, 2012 fault affected cracking and submarine oil spill along the fault

About 1000 square meters of road surface Zhang Yuanyuan et al., Sinopec was Theoilspill Weathering Law of Oil op polluted by The oi spl Spill in Qingdao 2013.11.2 il Qingdao crude oil, area onthe . Huangwei Oil Pipeline 2 pipeline sea area and some seasurfaceis crudeoil Leakage and Explosion rupent crude oil 0.03km2 Accident, entered Environmental Jiaozhou Chemistry, 34(9) Bay along the rainwater occurrence Nameof Brief Pollution time accident site description status Oil species Related literature of accident pipeline, and the leakage point exploded A fire and explosion accident occurred in the dangerous goods Toluene and warehouse VOCs in the of Ruihai aOin ethe Tianjin Company, airexceedh e Yang jiarui, "the Ruihai causing 165 have the importance of chemical 2015.08.1 Dangerou Tianjin sea people to smell of Hazardous safety and s Goods area die, 8 hydrogen chemicals environmental 2 Fire and missing, sulfide, protection-from Tianjin Explosion 798 injured whichmay big bang", chemical Accident and chma management, 2016(1) hospitalized caution to ,304 pollutn buildings, seawater 12,428 commercial cars and 7,533 containers damaged Oil spill Li Yunbin et al., Multi accident Cause objective Optimization rate: 1 ~ 10t . Site Selection Method 2002-2013 oilspill BohaiSea 2.7 re Crude oil for Oil Spill Emergency 20221 lsp Btimes/year, marine dominated Base in Bohai Sea Area, incidents 100-1000t pollution Journal of Harbin 0.2 damage Engineering University, times/year 37(4)

Case 2: Collecting the discharge of ballast water loaded by foreign trade ships in China's sea area since 1997, the national red tide monitoring area published by the State Oceanic Administration (State Oceanic Administration, China Marine Disaster Bulletin), and the progress of relevant international conventions (Figure 9), the results show that with the progress of international trade and globalization, ship ballast water has become the most important channel for alien invasion, and the first-developed countries such as Europe, America, Australia and Japan are frequently invaded by invasion disasters.

China, as the largest latecomer country, has also suffered from invasion disasters. Since 1997, with the continuous increase of ballast water discharge from overseas, the area of red tide has been rising. Internationally, Canada and Australia took the lead in submitting relevant proposals to the Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in 1989, in the following eight years, MEPC adopted and updated the Guidelines on the Control and Management of Ballast Water to Reduce the Migration of Harmful Aquatic Organisms and Pathogens. After IMO adopted the 2004 International Convention on the Control and Management of Ships' Ballast Water and its Sediments (Ballast Water Convention), Fourteen technical guidelines, such as Guidelines for Ballast Water Management and Making Ballast Water Management Plan, and Guidelines for Ballast Water Exchange, have been approved one after another, and two guidelines are being compiled, which has formed a complete technical system of ballast water management policies and regulations. The Ballast Water Convention has officially entered into force in September 2017, previously, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Norway, Israel, New Zealand, the United States and other countries have unilaterally imposed measures such as ballast water exchange since 2004,In 2008, the countries belonging to the Helsinki Committee of Northwest Europe applied the Provisional General Guidelines for Voluntary Application of Ballast Water Replacement Standard D1 in the Northeast Atlantic and Baltic Sea, Regional organizations such as Black Sea, Gulf and East Asia have formulated regional action plans since 2010, International shipping trade unions require shipping enterprises to actively cooperate with the non-mandatory control measures taken by the competent authorities of various countries, load clean ballast water as much as possible when loading ballast water, and reduce the possibility of loading sludge with ballast water, China's shipping companies have formulated the ship ballast water management plan according to the Guidelines for the Compilation of Ship Ballast Water Management Plan published by China Classification Society (CCS) in 2006 and combined with the specific conditions of their ships, which are included in the key operation documents of ships to prepare for the port

state inspection. Chinese ocean-going ships have fully implemented ballast water

replacement operation at the request of the port state, CCS issued the Guidelines for the Implementation of Ballast Water Convention in November 2015. The difficulties in ship inspection and certification, sampling and analysis methods of port state inspection, and reliability of BWMS are analysed, and technical guidance is provided for shipping industry on BWMS selection and layout, application in ships, additional ballast pumps and applicable requirements in American waters. The causal relationship judgment shown in Figure 9 and the mutual verification results with the measured data show that with the full-scale global action against alien invasion disasters, although the discharge of overseas ballast water entering China's offshore waters continues to increase, the species and quantity of alien organisms carried in ships' ballast water have gradually decreased, and since 2004, the red tide area in China's coastal areas has been decreasing year by year.

Case 3: The State Oceanic Administration's Bulletin on the State of China's Marine Environment was collected. From 2011 to 2015, the main pollutants discharged from the sewage outlets into the sea were total phosphorus, CODcr, suspended solids and ammonia nitrogen. The main pollution factors of water quality in the waters adjacent to the sewage outlets were inorganic nitrogen, active phosphate, COD and petroleum. The main pollution factors of sediments were petroleum, copper, chromium, mercury, cadmium, sulfide and fecal coliform, and the main pollution of biological quality. The monitoring results show that the fixed and mobile pollution sources along the coast and at sea continuously discharge pollutants such as petroleum, COD, nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, heavy metals, pesticides and pathogens, which have indeed caused damage to marine ecological environment for a certain degree and duration.

Case 4: It is collected that remote sensing information of reclamation events in Jiaozhou Bay and Caofeidian Bohai Sea (Figure 10, Lei Ning et al., "Evolution Process of Reclamation in Jiaozhou Bay and Its Ecological Environment Impact Analysis", Marine Environmental Science, 32(4), Wu Yue et al., "Preliminary Study on Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Land Reclamation in Caofeidian Tianhai and Its Impact", Marine Lakes and Marshes Bulletin, 2013(1)) and the measured data of green tide of Enteromorphaprolfera ecological disaster ("China Marine Disaster Bulletin"), according to relevant foreign observation documents, the dam construction in the sea area near Xinwanjin, South Korea caused the amplitude of M2 tidal component to decrease by 8 ~ cm, and the late angle to decrease by about 3.5 degrees. In 1983, the velocity at the mouth of Tokyo Bay in Japan decreased by about 20% compared with that in 1968 due to the shrinking area. The impact of reclamation on tidal current not only occurred in the sea area close to the sea area, but also had a significant far-away effect on the sea area far away from the reclamation. According to the judgment of causality and the analysis of mutual confirmation with the measured data, the reclamation area in Caofeidian sea area began in 2005, and reached 50km2 in the three years from 2007, which is equivalent to the total reclamation area in Jiaozhou Bay in recent 20 years. The corresponding short term decrease level of tidal capacity reached the long-term cumulative decrease level of tidal capacity in Jiaozhou Bay, that is, it exceeded 10% of the original tidal capacity. The decrease of current velocity made the originally slightly washed sea area become slightly silted. Then, the structure and process of material and energy transmission in the ecosystem have changed, which makes it possible for green tide of Enteromorpha prolfera to soar in the northern Yellow Sea and enter Jiaozhou Bay and Bohai Bay in large quantities since 2007.

Case 5: The State Oceanic Administration's Bulletin on the State of China's Marine Environment was collected. In 2015, the western Pacific Ocean east and southeast of Fukushima, Japan was still significantly affected by the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan in 2011. The characteristic nuclide cesium -134 of Fukushima nuclear accident can still be detected in seawater samples in this sea area, and the activity of cesium -137 still significantly exceeds the background level of Japanese coastal waters before the nuclear accident; The average activity of strontium -90 in squid samples was higher than the background value before the accident.

The second category-source pollution criteria, its first cause: emission of persistent pollutants, its first result: the marine ecological environment damage type is complex, with high toxicity and long duration, its second cause: emission of non-persistent pollutants, and its second result: the marine ecological environment damage type is relatively simple, the damage degree is light and the duration is short. Therefore, the composition of damage source items and the harmfulness of pollution can be determined according to event reports, literature and media records, monitoring and traceability identification data, such as:

The vast majority of oil spills and hazardous chemicals pollution accidents in Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea since this century investigated in Table 1 of Case 1 above are crude oil and fuel oil, which belong to persistent pollutants. Therefore, it is judged that the corresponding marine ecological environment damage types are complex, with high toxicity and long duration.

The main pollution factors of sediments in the adjacent sea areas investigated in Case 3 above, such as petroleum, copper, chromium, mercury and cadmium, and the main pollution factors of biological quality, such as lead, cadmium, zinc, petroleum hydrocarbon and DDT, are persistent pollutants, so it is judged that the corresponding marine ecological environment damage is of complex types, high toxicity and long duration.

The activities of cesium -134 and cesium -137 in seawater samples and strontium in squid samples investigated in Case 5 above are higher than the background values before the accident, and belong to persistent pollutants. Therefore, it is judged that the marine ecological environment damage caused by them is complex, with high toxicity and long duration.

Case 6: The information of the collision and fire accident in the East China Sea occurred on January 6, 2018 by the Panamanian oil tanker "Sangji" was collected. The cargo oil carried by the "Sangji" was condensate oil, commonly known as "natural gasoline", which sank at 16: 45 on January 14 after burning at sea for 8 days. The heavy oil carried by the ship came from the port of origin, about 1,900 tons, with a small amount of light diesel oil. At the time of sinking, there are at most 1200 tons of heavy oil and about 100 tons of diesel oil. According to the above information, the causal relationship is determined as follows: although the condensate oil carried by the "Sangji" ship is large in quantity, its main component is gasoline fraction which is a relatively volatile or degradable pollutant, which is a non-persistent pollutant, resulting in a relatively simple type of marine ecological environment damage, light damage degree and short duration, and a small amount of diesel oil carried by the "Sangji" ship is a relatively difficult volatile or degradable pollutant. It is a weak persistent pollutant with light damage and short duration. As a pollutant which is difficult to volatilize or degrade such as vacuum residue of crude oil, 1,200 tons of heavy oil carried by "Sangji" is a strong persistent pollutant. The damage types of marine ecological environment are complex, with high toxicity and long duration.

The third category-classification consequence criterion: its cause: the damage source term exists in many different states in the marine environment, and its result: it acts on the multi-habitat and multi-trophic marine ecological environment correspondingly, causing various types of damage and further causing various types of damage consequences.

Case 7: The measured values of phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, intertidal organisms, fish eggs, larvae and catches in 2001 and 4 years after the construction of the sea-related project in Yangshan Deepwater Port Area of Shanghai International Shipping Center were collected (Figure 12). The sea-related project includes reclamation between island chains, channel dredging and the construction of the East China Sea Cross-sea

Bridge between Xiaoyangshan Island and Luchao Port Area of Shanghai. Before the

construction, the marine ecological environment background investigation was carried out as planned. However, before the investigation, it happened that a chemical ship collided and damaged in the sea area under investigation, leaking about 500 tons of styrene, which caused pollution damage to aquatic products in that year, and there was no market for Chinese mitten crab seedlings in that year. It can be seen from the interannual changes of the monitoring results of the above-mentioned ecological environmental factors that styrene, a pollutant in the pollution incident, is water soluble, which mainly damages water quality and zooplankton in a short time, resulting in obviously low monitoring values of zooplankton species. It should not be used as a background value to compare the corresponding damage caused by sea-related projects. Meanwhile, since the pollution incident has not brought obvious impact on the monitoring results of benthos, intertidal organisms, fish eggs and fish catches, it can still be used as a background value to compare the corresponding damage caused by sea-related projects. The monitoring results show that the sea-related projects have the most significant impact on benthos, followed by intertidal organisms, fish eggs and fish catches (Lan Ru, Qiao Bing, Study on the Impact of Waterway Engineering on Species Diversity of Fishery Resources,

Proceedings of the Symposium on Marine Pollution Prevention and Emergency Technology, China Environmental Science Press).

Comprehensive analysis of cases 1-7, which occurred in China's offshore waters and its surrounding waters in this century, including various damage sources of various types of sea-related projects, production and living pollution emissions and sudden pollution incidents. They exist in various States in multi-habitat and multi-trophic marine ecological environment, including occupying and changing the sea area conditions, expanding and drifting and spreading insoluble liquid pollutants on the sea surface, and sinking into a certain deep water layer to transport and spread with ocean currents, dissolved and chemically dispersed liquid pollutants or particulate pollutants enter seawater and are transported and diffused along with ocean currents, pollutants are transported to sediments and beaches along with ocean currents to form settled and landed pollutants, which are further dispersed into sediments and beaches, marine organisms inhabiting sea surface, seawater bodies, sediments and beaches are exposed to pollutants and absorb, adsorb, absorb and degrade pollutants. Pollutants entering marine organisms are foraged by other marine organisms along with the food chain, forming bioaccumulation and biomagnification. Evaporative liquid pollutants enter the air environment and come into contact with people, birds and mammals, some of them change the spatial distribution of shoreline and water depth, destroy spawning grounds, feeding grounds and wintering grounds, block migration routes, some cause invasion of alien marine organisms, and some block water-gas exchange, reduce water quality, photosynthesis rate and seawater environment self-purification ability. It damages the environmental quality of beaches, land-sea junctions and sediments, poisons marine life and birds, endangers the health of exposed people, destroys marine life population and food network, and some changes the regional hydrodynamic force, scouring and silting environment, nutrient and bait supply, reduces marine living resources and biodiversity, resulting in damage to the material and energy transmission structure and process, ecosystem service function, balance and stability of marine ecosystem, and frequent marine ecological disasters. According to the 2015 China Cancer Statistics Report (Hao Jie, Chen Wanqing et al., Cancer statistics in China, 2015, CA-Cancer J Clin, 66(2)) and the latest cancer data in China released by the National Cancer Center in 2017, the annual changes of the incidence of new cancers in mainland China since the beginning of this century are analyzed (Figure 13), from which we can see that, In the ten years from 2000 to 2010, the newly diagnosed cancer cases doubled to nearly 3 million cases every year, and according to the trend analysis, it will increase to 4 million cases every year by 2020. Among them, besides the damage of freshwater, grassland, forest, farmland and urban ecosystem, there are also the damage of marine ecosystem, and the consequences are worrying.

The fourth category-temporal and spatial distribution criteria: its causes: the quantity and distribution of damage source items entering the marine environment vary with the occurrence types, disposal conditions and environmental conditions of the events; its results: the quantity, damage consequences and temporal and spatial distribution of the multi-habitat and multi-trophic level ecological environment should be supplemented by investigation and evidence collection and calculation test judgment. The classification construction scheme of supporting auxiliary evaluation models is shown in Table 2.

Table 2 List of classification and construction schemes of auxiliary evaluation models Important information Main auxiliary Expand auxiliary Subject model composition needed functions functions model To identify the semi To determine the submersible floating Remote sensing Remote sensing occurrence of of pollutants on the monitoring monitoring Environmental damage events and sea surface and model and model and remote sensing the degree and underwater, sediment database of database of information scope of deposition, shore damage source damage environmental landing, biological terms consequences damage absorption, absorption, mntake and degradation, etc. To collect pollutant samples and spectrogram Fingerprint information, To identify the identification Pollution discovery pollutant types of Back to the location analysis model traceability information of dand time of pollutant and database of analysis model source terms and items emission source pollutants consequences,and meteorological and hydrological information Retrieval model Evaluation Pollutant To retrieve the Toxicity evaluation and database of model and production composition and of pollutants pollutant types database of information, crude content of and components acute and oil origin and pollutants chronic toxicity product oil of pollutants fraction type information To determine the Damage Physical model cause of damage, To test model for mechanism and and weathering the environmental analysing classified environmental test information destination of damage and test weathering for pollutant pollutants, and model for weathering model and weathering test classify the of pollutants database consequences of damage Occurrence and To analyze and disposal of estimate the damage source composition and items, main weight of To calculate the Analysismodel ontnents and pollutants in habitat leakage of pollutants anddatabase of pollutants, occupation, according to the daaesource environmental changing thickness and area of damage weherin conditions and insoluble pollutants migrationand entering multi- floating on the sea tgranstion, habitat and multi- surface transformation' trophic level transmission and environmental other information Quantitative simulation of sea Regional current surface and semi submersible baseline and bieanodel floating state, impact model dissolved and and database, dispersedsate sea surface wind dispersed state, field diagnosis D e cdinara model and Damage source sedimentary state, pollutant drift terms, shoreline volatile state, and water depth biological To analyze and Dynamicmodel model,regional conditions, model absorption, evaluate the degree ofmarine scouring and boundary absorption and and scope of damage ecological siltingbaseline conditions, intake of degraded to the structure, impact of model anda . dynamic pollutants, water process and function damagesource change analysis observation values quality, of related marine terms model,regional of vulnerable environmental ecosystems waterquality factors and other baseline of baselineand information zooplankton and impact model biodegradable and database, debrisandthe zooplankton spatial and impact dynamic tempoal model and temporal mdelande distribution of database transmission and diffusion of affected degree Ecological Investigation To assess the loss be the same as the damage information on of water, sediment above assessment environmental and beach model of multi- baseline and environment and habitat and damage degree of biological multi-trophic vulnerable factors resources level and their index items by season Healthvrisk Epidemiological To evaluatethe risk To investigate and assessment investigation and probability and anlztecine model of people statistical analysis consequences of analyze the incidence exposed to information related human health of population-related to contact hazards epidemics marine pollution

The information of components and average content of different fractions of crude oil is the most representative in the retrieval model and database of pollutant types and components in Table 2, see Table 3 for details, and the damage mechanism and representative mechanism models in table 2 and database are shown in Figures 2-5 for details. The water quality impact assessment model of oil spill weathering is shown in Formulae (3)-(7). The analysis model and database of damage source terms and marine ecological impact dynamic model of damage source terms in Table 2 adopt the research results in the environmental impact report of Yangshan Deepwater Port Area of Shanghai International Shipping Center mentioned above

Table 3 Average proportion of different fractions, average content of classified

components and information of main components of crude oil

Crude Averag fraction e Share Classified Components, Average Content and Main Components (%) Classificati Monocyclic Identified monomer on N-alkane Isomerized alkane Monocyclic alkane aromatic hydrocarbon component hydrocarbon Methyl Gasoline cyclopentane, fraction N-pentane, Methyl pentane, Cyclohexane, Benzene, Seventeen to 83 Initial 8.84 Main N-hexane, 3-methylpentane, Methyl Toluene, species, Content distillati component N-heptane, 2-methyl hexane, cyclohexane, P-xylene range:22.61% to on point N-Octane, 3-methyl hexane, Dimethyl M-xylene, 46.3% ~200°C N-nonane 2-methylheptane cyclopentane, O-xylene Dimethyl cyclohexane

content° 28.7 12.67 18.61 5.01 35.01 Bicyclic Tricyclic Diesel Classificati Monocycli aromatic aromatic fraction 20.01 on N-alkane IsomerizedMonocycli Bicyclic Tricyclic c aromatic hydrocarbo hydrocarbo (200-3502 compon alkane c alkane alkane alkane hydrocarb ns (mainly ns (e.g. °C) component on naphthalene anthracene ) _and phenanthren e)

39.3 21.43 20.3 7.43 2.2 6.2 2.87 0.27 content(00) Classificati Isomerized Monocycli Bicyclic Tricyclic Tetracycli Pentacyclic Hexocyclic on N-alkane alkane c alkane alkane alkane c alkane alkane alkane component

content0°) 19.84 13.96 7.62 7.5 8.34 15.46 1.78 1.88 uum fraction 27.93 clasft Monocycli Bicyclic Tricyclic Tetracycli Pentacycli Hexacycli (350-500 Classificati °C) on c aromatic aromatic aromatic c aromatic c aromatic c aromatic Thiophene Colloid class component hydrocarb hydrocarbo hydrocarb hydrocarb hydrocarbo hydrocarb on n on on n on

A gcontent0) 8.5 5.74 2.82 1.5 0.22 1.26 0.42 3.02

Light Middle Heavy Classificati Saturated Vacuum on hydrocarb aromatic aromatic aromatic Light Mesoglia Heavy Asphaltene residuum 43.23 component on hydrocarbo hydrocarb hydrocarb colloid colloid (>500 n on on

23.84 6.88 6.16 18.34 13.5 7.66 13.42 10.2 °C) content°/0

APrsicki =Wspii A3r|[Tr(C1r + C2r + C3r + C4r)] (3)

Wr-aspsnai -- max (maxACi'oilk, X APrslicki X H (4) (W - W recover o eri rspilli

ACi'Oilk, = (Ci,oil,k - CO, 0 il,k)) Mi,oil,k X He,k/Hr X Tr/Te,k (5)

APr-dspsndin = Wr-dspsndi/Hr/(Soi,n - Coil) X Fi,k,n (6) APi,n = APn+Z'1 APradspsni,n (7) In the formula, APrslicki is the oil film coverage area of the oil spill in the area to

be assessed at time i ; Wr_spill is the overflow scale of the oil spill in the area to be

assessed at time i ; Tr and A3r are the maximum oil film thickness and oil density of oil spill in the area to be assessed. C1, C2, C3r, C4r are the adjustment factors of oil film thickness in heavy, moderate, light and other polluted areas. AC 0 oilk is the variation

amplitude of oil content in the water during the i stage of the k-type weathering experiment calculated according to the results of weathering experiment. CO,oik, Ci,oil,k is the background concentration of oil content in the weathering experiment water of the k oil species and the experimental concentration of the i stage. Mi,oi,k is the variable amplitude adjusting factor of oil content in water during the first stage of k oil weathering experiment. Hek, Hr and Tek are the weathering test depth of k oil species, the average water depth of water quality sampling point and the oil film thickness of k oil species weathering test. The WIr_recoveri is the recovery of oil spill during the period i of the area to be assessed ; The Wrdspsndi is the weight of the oil spill entering the water during the period i of the area to be assessed; APrdspsndanis the area of influence of oil spill on water quality in non-closed water area which is beyond the N-type water quality standard;

S 0 l,n is the limit value of oil content in water of category n water quality standard; C o' is the background concentration of oil content in the water of the area to be assessed; Fik,n : The water quality influence coefficient of stage i of oil type k, Fik,n Fli, x F2i,k x F3ikn, Flik: The other water quality index exceeding the standard

coefficient caused by oil spill of stage k of oil type k, F 2 ik: The pollutant degradation

coefficient of stage I of oil type k, F 3 ikf: The ratio of oil spill affected by water quality standard n of stage I of oil type k.

By comparing the experimental results with the measured values of "tasman sea" and Dalian "7.16" oil spill accidents reported in the literature, the scaled simulation ratio of DO, COD, oil content and BOD5 concentration in the model is calibrated. On this basis, according to the investigated source data, the pollution area estimation model (formula (4)) is used to calculate the area where the oil concentration in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea waters increased beyond Class I seawater quality standard in the year and the second year of Dalian "7.16" accident. After superimposing the affected area of Penglai "19-3" oil spill in the following year of Dalian 7.16 accident, the increased value of seawater quality index exceeding the standard area estimated by formula (5) and the measured value in the bulletin can be mutually confirmed (Figure 14), which supports the judgment of the causal relationship of water quality exceeding the standard damage caused by the two oil spill accidents. The calculation parameters of the model are shown in Table 4.

Table 4 Values of some parameters of water quality impact assessment model of Dalian "7.16" accident in the current year and the following year rmee H, ll AP0 n 1 AP 0 ~n 2 AP 0 ~n 3 AP 0 ~n 4 2 2 2 (M)F1)=1,k F2;=lk Fli=2,k F 2 i=2,k (ki 2 ) (ki ) (ki ) (ki )

Bohai 18 5.3 one 5.3 0.6 8970 5660 4190 2730 Sea 33 5o536 2 700 1 Yellow 33 5.3 one 5.3 0.6 11250 7930 5160 2150

Sea ramete 3 3 3 3 F ik, Fl F ik 2 F i,k,n-3 F ik,4 F ikl 3 3 F i,k,n-2 3 3 F i,k,-3 F ik,4

zone (mg/L) (i=1) )i=1) (i=1) (i=1) (i=2) (i=2) (i=2) (i=2) Bohai 0.032 0.275 0.185 -0.17 0.71 Yellow 0.032 0.03 -0.01 -0.10 1.08 Sea _____ 0.03 0.00 0.16 0.81 ____

The investigation, test, diagnosis and evaluation method and operational process adopt known, existing and due related evaluation methods and operational processes, and the marine ecological environment damage environmental baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and index system adopt qualitative and quantitative judgment indexes

of sub-regions, damage source items, vulnerable factors and index items, and damage degree grades, among which China's offshore waters are divided into nine sections according to routes shared by multiple ports (Figure 15),See Table 5 for partition number, name, length and surrounding ports. This partition is used to construct damage source terms, environmental baseline of vulnerable factors and damage degree judgment index system related to ship shipping and port construction and operation.

Table 5 Division number, name, length and surrounding ports of the 9-segment common route of several ports in China's offshore waters number 0 @ @ @ @ @ .. Souther Northeas Pearl Southwe Bohai Yellow Changia n East Taiwan t Per st Qiongzh Sea Sea ng China Strait Guangdo River Guangdo ou Strait Estuary Estuary Sea ng ng Length 200 683 462 358 480 318 208 228 322 (kin) Adjacent YingkoLiaoning, Yangtze provinces u Yantai, River, Fujian Shenzhe a city in Haikou and ports Hebei Shandong Jiangsu, and Shantou n, Guangdo and of ship and Zhejiang Xiame Guangdo ngdo and Gund g Guangxi emissions Tianjin Lianyung and n ng Province in China ang Shanghai Adjacent AdaetJapan, Taiwan Tawn Hong Hong countries North T Taiwan Province Kong, Kong, and Korea and Korea' Provinc Provinc , China, China, China, Vietnam regions; South Japan; e, Hong Macao, Macao, ;1.1 Emission Suh 1.2 e, China; Kong, Emtisin Korea; 1.2 China; hia Kong' China; China; contribute 1.2 1.1 hina; 1.2 1.1 on 1.2 coefficie nt of outer ship In view of the damage source items of each pollution accident in the above case 1, the contribution to the increased value of sea water quality exceeding the standard area is quantitatively determined by formula (2). The increased value of the sea area exceeding the standard area caused by the accident in the current year usually reaches 10,000 ~ ,000 km 2, and the exceeding standard area is larger and lasts longer when pollution accidents occur continuously.

In view of the above-mentioned cases 1-7, which occurred in China's offshore waters and its surrounding waters in this century, the damage source terms of various types of sea-related projects, production and living pollution emissions and sudden pollution incidents were quantitatively determined by using Formula (1) and Formula (2), and the damage degree caused by the ecological environment damage caused by the newly diagnosed cancer cases in the exposed population and the contribution of marine ecological environment damage were assumed in the quantitative calculation. The damage of freshwater, ocean, grassland, forest, farmland and urban ecosystem is universal to the exposed population, and its contribution to the increase of new cancer cases is basically the same. In the past 20 years, the accumulation of each ecosystem damage has led to about 10 million newly diagnosed cancer cases, accounting for about 0.75% of the total population of mainland China, which is equivalent to an average of 3 people in every 400 exposed population being diagnosed with cancer due to a single ecosystem damage. That is to say, the joint contribution of six kinds of ecosystem damage in the past 20 years has led to about 18 people diagnosed with cancer in every 400 exposed people, and the damage degree is quite serious. It is very necessary to do a good job in prevention, restoration and compensation of damage to freshwater, grassland, forest, farmland and urban ecosystems, and at the same time do a good job in prevention, restoration and compensation of damage to marine ecosystems, so as to ensure that the people really enjoy a healthy marine ecological environment and a safe quality of life.

Claims (6)

THE CLAIMS DEFINING THE INVENTION ARE AS FOLLOWS:

1. A method for judging the causal relationship of marine ecological environment damage is characterized by adopting six types of chain models of marine ecological environment damage causal relationship, four types of causal relationship judgment criteria and indicators with logical progressive relationship, multi-type auxiliary evaluation model system architecture scheme matched with judgment criteria, marine ecological environment damage baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and index system construction scheme classified by region and sub-item, and quantitative judgment methods of damage degree and damage source item contribution of vulnerable factors.Their main compositions and connection relationships are as follows:

1.1 The six causal chain models of marine ecological environment damage mentioned above include: persistent pollutant marine ecological environment damage mechanism model CJCM1, approach and consequence analysis model CJCM2, causal chain models CJCM3, CJCM4, CJCM5 of marine ecosystem imbalance and frequent disasters caused by foreign biological invasion, production and living pollution discharge and reclamation dredging, and causal chain model CJCM6 of pollutant damage source term and classified damage and consequence;

1.2 The four types of causal relationship judgment criteria are based on the causal relationship chain model of marine ecological environment damage, and have a logical progressive sequence of judgment, providing clear, simple, systematic and effective causal relationship judgment criteria for the four key links causing damage, namely, source term occurrence, source term pollution, classification consequence and space-time distribution. Each type of criteria has its own exclusive judgment index, which together constitute the causal relationship judgment model;

1.3 The architecture scheme of the multi-type auxiliary evaluation model matched with the judgment criteria is as follows: the model system consists of the causal relationship judgment model, the multi-type auxiliary evaluation model, the investigation, test, diagnosis and evaluation method and operational process, the environmental baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and index system of marine ecological environment damage, wherein, the multi-type auxiliary evaluation model is constructed by different types of auxiliary evaluation models respectively corresponding to the four types of causal relationship judgment criteria and indicators; the investigation, test, diagnosis and evaluation method and business process are composed of known, existing and due related evaluation methods and business processes; and the marine ecological environment damage environmental baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and indicator system are composed of sub-regions, damage source items and categories, vulnerable factors and indicator items, and qualitative and quantitative judgment indicators of damage degree grades.

1.4 The construction scheme of the environmental baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and index system of marine ecological environment damage by zoning, classification and sub-classification is as follows: firstly, combine the above causal chain model, judgment model and auxiliary evaluation model to concretize the categories of vulnerable factors and their representative index items, then clarify the judgment criteria for judging these vulnerable factors' environmental baseline and damage to a certain extent, and then determine these judgment criteria and indicators by different regions and damage source items respectively to quantitatively judge the damage degree and damage source item contribution of vulnerable factors;

1.5 The quantitative determination method of damage degree of vulnerable factors and contribution of damage source terms is composed of quantitative calculation method of cumulative damage degree of vulnerable factors for multiple damage source terms and quantitative calculation method of contribution value of damage of vulnerable factors for specific damage source terms.

2. The six causal chain models of marine ecological environment damage mentioned in claim 1 are adopted, which are characterized in that:

2.1 CJCM1, the damage mechanism model of persistent pollutants in marine ecological environment, describes the following causal chain: after persistent pollutants enter the marine environment, water-insoluble components will drift and diffuse on the sea surface and in different water depths, volatile components will evaporate into the air with natural weathering, and soluble or chemically dispersed components will enter the water body, when pollutants come into contact with coasts, sediments or marine organisms. Migration and transformation among multiple media will occur, and it will be absorbed and accumulated by organisms, which may form bioaccumulation and biomagnification through the food chain and enter the human body.When the organisms are exposed to persistent pollutants, it will cause disorder of the functions and structures of cells and molecules, and at the same time, initiate self-repair at the cell and molecular level.When the concentration of persistent pollutants reaches a certain level, it will lead to excessive repair or hinder repair, and then produce a series of toxicological effects. Including: reducing the division rate and photosynthesis rate of phytoplankton, causing necrosis and fibrosis of organism tissue, leading to the decline of survival rate of offspring, genetic variation, inhibiting immune system function, forming cell hyperplasia, tumor and malignant tumor, which will damage the structure, process and function of ecosystem and endanger the health of exposed people;

Section 2.2 the analysis model CJCM2 describes the following causal chain: the ways of persistent pollutants entering the human body include: respiratory intake, skin contact absorption, fish, meat and dairy products entering the food chain of marine organisms first and then being eaten, as well as being introduced into infants through placenta and lactation, once enriched in human organs, fats and fibers, it may cause endocrine disorders, neurobehavioral disorders, reproductive and immune system damage, cancer and tumors, dysplasia and other symptoms, and then form a harmful consequence of high incidence of related diseases in the exposed population;

2.3 Causal chain model CJCM3 describes the following causal chain: once alien marine life successfully invades the local sea area, it will compete with local species for living space and food, due to the lack of natural enemies, it is easy to form a large-scale single dominant community, while other species lose suitable habitat, resulting in the decrease of biodiversity, destruction of local population and food network structure, resulting in ecosystem imbalance and frequent disasters;

2.4 Causal chain model CJCM4 describes the following causal chain: the discharge of production and domestic pollution exceeds the environmental capacity, which leads to the damage of regional marine environment self-purification ability, the deterioration of marine environment quality and eutrophication, and then causes the growth of suitable species, the loss of suitable habitat for non-suitable species, the damage of biological population and food network, and the decrease of diversity, resulting in the imbalance of ecological system and frequent disasters;

2.5 Causal chain model CJCM5 describes the following causal chain: these sea related projects of reclamation and dredging occupy the sea environment, resulting in damage to biological habitat and changes in water depth conditions of shoreline, resulting in changes in regional marine dynamics and scouring and silting environment, which in turn lead to changes in habitat conditions, nutrients and bait supply, as well as damage to the growth and reproduction of marine organisms and reduction of biodiversity, resulting in ecosystem imbalance and frequent disasters;

2.6 Causal chain model CJCM6 describes the following causal chain: after pollutants enter the marine environment, they may show different states due to the comprehensive action of their own components and environmental conditions, and correspondingly act on some multi-habitat and multi-trophic marine ecological environments, causing different types of damages and further leading to corresponding consequences;

In this causal chain, damages such as lowering water quality, poisoning marine organisms, poisoning birds and marine mammals, and endangering the health of exposed people may be caused by the combined action of various source conditions, while damages such as blocking water-gas exchange, reducing water self-purification ability, reducing photosynthesis rate, damaging the environmental quality of beaches and sea land borders, damaging the environmental quality of sediments, poisoning benthos, intertidal organisms, reducing pollution damage, and restoring ecological environment.

Similarly, several types of damages in the causal chain may lead to the deterioration of water quality indicators such as dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD5 and oil content, the increase of over-standard area, the decrease of survival rate and biomass of zooplankton, fish eggs and larvae, the increase or escape of economic fish and swimming organisms, and the damage of marine ecosystem materials, energy transmission structure and process and ecosystem service function. However, birds are injured or killed, the incidence of epidemic diseases related to the exposed population is increased, the health of marine mammals is damaged or escaped, the environmental quality of coastlines is deteriorated, the death of intertidal organisms is increased, the environmental quality of sediments is deteriorated, the death of benthos is increased, the actual measurement of phytoplankton is increased due to the decrease of consumption, the marine environmental quality is improved, and the number of pollutant-consuming flora is obviously increased.

3. Adopting the four kinds of causal relationship judgment criteria and indicators with logical progressive relationship as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that:

3.1 Category I-Criteria for occurrence of source items, which is due to the occurrence of known and unknown damage events, which will inevitably cause marine ecological environment damage of a certain type, degree and duration after the event. The type and degree of damage should be specifically determined according to the type, intensity and distribution of source items, disposal status and environmental conditions;

The criteria corresponding to the criteria are: the type of single or multiple damage source items, the evidence that the incident happened, the time and location of the incident, among which the damage source items are divided into three types: sea-related projects, production and living pollution emissions, and sudden pollution incidents, and the damage source items of sea-related projects can be subdivided into reclamation, dredging, offshore dams and bridges, coastal roads, and submarine projects.The pollutants such as petroleum, COD, nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, pesticides, heavy metals, chemicals, cold, heat, residual chlorine, exotic organisms, pathogens, suspended sediment and microplastics discharged from production and living pollution emissions can be subdivided into chemical, physical and biological pollutants, and the pollution sources of sudden pollution incidents can be subdivided into oil spills, leakage of hazardous chemicals and leakage of radioactive substances.

3.2 Category II-Source pollution criterion, which is due to the discharge of persistent pollutants, the first result is that the damage types of marine ecological environment are complex, with high toxicity and long duration, the second reason is the discharge of non persistent pollutants, and the second result is that the damage types of marine ecological environment are relatively simple, the damage degree is light and the duration is short, and the more volatile or degradable pollutants like gasoline distillate are non-persistent pollutants. The pollutants that are difficult to volatilize or degrade, such as diesel oil fraction, are weak persistent pollutants, while those that are difficult to volatilize or degrade, such as crude oil vacuum residue, are strong persistent pollutants.

The corresponding judgment indexes of this standard are: composition of damage source items and pollution harmfulness. Specific indexes include: main composition and content of pollutants in production and living pollution emission and sudden pollution incident damage source items, whether they are persistent and easy to diffuse, and material composition of damage source items in marine engineering, whether they are pollution harmfulness;

3.3 Category Ill-Classification consequence criterion: its cause: the damage source term exists in many different states in the marine environment, and its result: it acts on the multi-habitat and multi-trophic marine ecological environment correspondingly, causing various types of damage and further causing various types of damage consequences, among which, sea surface and semi-submersible floating pollutants act on sea water bodies and marine organisms, and volatile evaporation pollutants act on the air environment and animals in contact with people. Dissolved and chemically dispersed pollutants act on seawater and marine organisms, while pollutants drifting to coastal landing state act on beach and intertidal zone organisms; pollutants sinking into sediment layer act on sediment layer and benthic organisms; pollutants absorbed by organisms and foraging state act on food chain organisms; and pollutants in degradation state act on polluted seawater, beach, sediment layer and marine organisms.

The criteria corresponding to the criteria are: the state of damage source items in multi-habitat and multi-trophic marine ecological environment, the classification damage caused and the further classification consequences, among which:

The specific indicators of the multi-habitat marine ecological environment include: sea surface and seawater environment in different water depths, sea surface air environment, beach environment, sediment environment, and the spawning grounds, feeding grounds, wintering grounds and migratory passages of marine organisms;

The specific indicators of the multi-trophic marine ecological environment include: marine organisms such as microorganisms, zooplankton, fish eggs and larvae, benthos, intertidal organisms, economic fish, swimmers and marine mammals, as well as birds and contact people;

The state of the damage source term in multi-habitat and multi-trophic marine ecological environment includes: insoluble liquid pollutants spread and drift and spread on the sea surface, submerged in a certain deep water layer, transported and spread along with ocean current, dissolved and chemically dispersed liquid pollutants or particulate pollutants entering seawater and transported and spread along with ocean current, and transported along with ocean current to sediments and beaches to form settled and landed pollutants, and further dispersed into sediments and beaches. Marine organisms inhabiting sea surface, seawater body, sediment layer and beach are exposed to pollutants and absorb, adsorb, absorb and degrade pollutants. The pollutants entering marine organisms are foraged by other marine organisms along with the food chain and form bioaccumulation and biomagnification, evaporative liquid pollutants enter the air environment and contact with people, birds and mammals, occupying and changing the sea area.

The specific types of classified damages include: blocking water-gas exchange, reducing seawater environmental self-purification ability, lowering water quality, reducing photosynthesis rate, poisoning marine organisms and birds, endangering the health of exposed people, damaging the environmental quality of beaches and sea-land junctions, damaging the environmental quality of sediments, invading foreign marine organisms, changing the spatial distribution of shoreline and water depth, destroying spawning grounds, feeding grounds and wintering grounds, and blocking migration routes;

The specific types of further classification consequences include: pH, dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD5, nitrogen and phosphorus content, water temperature fluctuation, oil content, chemical characteristic pollutant content, harmful pathogen content, microplastics, suspended particulate matter, etc., the area of regional seawater quality exceeding relevant national standards increases, the survival rate and biomass of zooplankton, fish eggs and larvae decrease, the death of economic fish and swimming animals increase and escape. The actual measurement of phytoplankton increased due to the decrease of consumption, birds were injured or killed, the incidence of epidemic diseases related to the exposed population increased, the health of marine mammals was damaged and escaped, the mortality of intertidal organisms increased and the production decreased, the mortality of benthos increased and the production decreased, invasive species competed for the living space and food of local species, the biodiversity decreased, the marine biological population and food network were destroyed, and the regional hydrodynamic and scouring and silting environment changed. Loss of habitat of marine organisms, changes in environmental media suitable for habitat, water flow conditions, nutrients and bait supply, damage to marine living resources, damage to marine ecosystem materials, energy transmission structure and process and ecosystem service functions, damage to marine ecosystem balance and stability, and frequent marine ecological disasters;

3.4 Category IV-Temporal and Spatial Distribution Criteria: Its causes: the quantity and distribution of damage source items acting on marine environment vary with the occurrence type, disposal status and environmental conditions of the event, and its results: the quantity, damage consequences and temporal and spatial distribution of the corresponding occupied or entered multi-habitat and multi-trophic ecological environment need to be supplemented by investigation and evidence collection and calculation test judgment;

The criteria are as follows: source intensity, spatial position and duration of damage source terms, source intensity reduction, spatial position and duration of countermeasures to reduce damage source terms, damage degree grading standards for classified damage and its consequences, spatial distribution and duration of classified damage. Specific indicators include: total occupation, discharge, recovery and drift to coast, dissolved amount dispersed into water body, natural volatilization, dissolved into water body, adsorbed and ingested by organisms, degradation, seawater quality, increase of sediment and coastal zone quality exceeding the standard area, biomass exceeding the standard condition, marine organism population and food network, regional hydrodynamic and scouring and silting environment change, marine organism habitat loss, suitable habitat environment medium. Water flow conditions, changes in nutrient and bait supply, marine biodiversity, biomass, fishery resources, decreased service function of marine ecosystem, damaged balance and stability of marine ecosystem, types, frequency and area of regional marine ecological disasters, and increased epidemic incidence of exposed population.

4. Adopting the multi-type auxiliary evaluation model architecture scheme matched with the judgment criteria as claimed in claim 1, which is characterized in that the specific composition of the multi-type auxiliary evaluation model is as follows:

4.1 The models assisting the assessment and judgment of the first category-source term occurrence criteria mainly include: remote sensing monitoring model and database of damage source term, remote sensing monitoring model and database of damage consequence, fingerprint identification analysis model and database of pollutants, and pollution traceability analysis model;

4.2 The models assisting the assessment and judgment of the second category-source pollution criteria mainly include: the retrieval model and database of pollutant types and components, and the evaluation model and database of acute and chronic toxicity of pollutants;

4.3 The models assisting the evaluation and judgment of the third category classification consequence criterion mainly include: damage mechanism, environmental weathering model and database;

4.4 The models assisting the evaluation and judgment of the fourth category temporal and spatial distribution criteria mainly include: damage source term analysis model and database, damage source term marine ecological impact dynamic model, multi-habitat multi-trophic level ecological damage evaluation model, and marine pollution exposure population health risk assessment model, among which, the marine ecological impact dynamic model of damage source term includes the following dynamic models and databases: regional current baseline and impact model and database, sea surface wind field diagnosis model and pollutant drift model, regional scouring and silting baseline model and change analysis model, regional water quality baseline and impact model and database, and zooplankton impact dynamic model and database.

5. The construction scheme of environmental baseline and damage degree judgment criteria and index system for marine ecological environment damage by zoning, classification and sub-item classification according to claim 1 is characterized in that:

5.1 The categories of vulnerable marine ecological environment factors and their representative indicators are: pH, oil content, dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD5, benzene series, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, benzopyrene, chemicals, radioactive indicators, suspended particulate matter, microplastics, pathogen content in water quality, and petroleum, heavy metals, pesticides, benzene series, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and benzopyrene in bottom and biomass composition and quantity of biological species, habitat density and corresponding indicators of phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish eggs, larvae and juveniles, benthos, intertidal benthos and fishery resources in biomass, as well as local species, exotic species and food web structure, fish spawning grounds, feeding grounds, wintering grounds and migration routes in habitat status, suitable habitat species, environmental media and temperature regional marine dynamics and scouring and silting environment in ecosystem state, material and energy transmission structure and process, biodiversity, system balance and stability, ecosystem service function, epidemic incidence of five senses, skin, digestion, respiration, endocrine, nervous and genetic systems related to pollutants in the health status of exposed people;

5.2 The criteria for judging the environmental baseline of vulnerable factors are: the index value when the material and energy transmission structure and process of the regional marine ecosystem can be maintained in a good, balanced and stable state, and its normal ecosystem service function can be realized;

5.3 The criterion for judging the damage of vulnerable factors to a certain extent is: within a certain time and space, the damage degree of vulnerable factors caused by all damage source items with corresponding causal relationship is directly proportional to the difference between the current value of vulnerable factors and their environmental baseline index values. The larger the difference, the heavier the damage degree, the smaller the difference and the lighter the damage degree.

6. The method for quantitatively judging damage degree and damage source term contribution of vulnerable factors according to claim 1 is characterized in that:

6.1 For a number of known and unknown damage source items, the quantitative calculation formula for quantitatively judging their cumulative damage degree to corresponding vulnerable factors is as follows:

ADDi,j,k - 1 TVi,jkl = DVi,j,k - BVi,j,k;

Herein, ADDi,j,k Is the degree of cumulative damage suffered by the vulnerability factor in item k in period of region i; TVi,jkl is the damage value of the damage source item i suffered by the vulnerability factor in item k in period j of region i; DVi,jk is the measured value of the vulnerability factor of item k in period of region i; BVi,jk is the environmental baseline index value of the K vulnerability factor in the period j of the regionI;

6.2 For a specific known or unknown damage source item, the quantitative calculation formula for quantitatively judging its contribution value to the damage of the corresponding vulnerable factor is:

oTVii=m DVi,,k - DVi,=JJOlk - j= = TVi,j,klem;

Herein, ADDi, ,kis the contribution value of the damage source item m occurring in period JO to the damage of the vulnerability factor item k in period j of region I; Meanings the same as 6.1; DVi,jk is the measured value of the K vulnerability factor in the period of JO-1 in the region I; TVi,j,klemis the value of the damage of the damage source item 1, except for item m, suffered by the vulnerability factor item k in period in area I.

FIGURES 1/12

Figure 1