CN108492007A - A kind of marine eco-environment damage causality determination method - Google Patents

Abstract

A kind of marine eco-environment damage causality determination method, belongs to marine eco-environment protection and pollution damage appraisal and evaluation technical field comprising：6 kinds of marine eco-environments damage causality chain model, the four class causality decision criterias with logic progressive relationship and index, the polymorphic type aided assessment model system architectural schemes to match with decision criteria, the marine eco-environment damage to the environment baseline and extent of damage decision criteria and index system establishment scheme of subregion classification subitem classification, the easily damaged factor extent of damage and the quantization determination method of damage source item contribution, scientifically to judge marine engineering, production and living disposal of pollutants, suddenly accident is damaged caused by the marine eco-environment and health and consequence, for the identification and assessment of damage, it calls to account and compensates, and active and effective the defence for taking pollution damage, disposition, environmental harness approaches measure provides a set of clear, it is simple and direct, system, effective causality decision technology is supported.

Description

A kind of marine eco-environment damage causality determination method

Technical field

The present invention relates to a kind of marine eco-environment damage causality determination method, belong to the marine eco-environment protection and Pollution damage appraisal and evaluation technical field comprising：6 kinds of marine eco-environment damage causality chain models have logic The four class causality decision criterias and index of progressive relationship, the polymorphic type aided assessment model system to match with decision criteria Architectural schemes, the marine eco-environment damage to the environment baseline of subregion classification subitem classification and extent of damage decision criteria and index body It is the quantization determination method of constructing plan, the easily damaged factor extent of damage and damage source item contribution, extra large work is related to for scientifically judgement Journey, production and living disposal of pollutants, suddenly accident are damaged caused by the marine eco-environment and health and consequence, for damage Harmful identification and assessment are called to account and are compensated and active and effective the defence, disposition, environmental harness approaches for taking pollution damage Measure provides a set of clear, simple and direct, system, effective causality decision technology is supported.

Background technology

With global economy sustained and rapid development, the mankind continue to increase the development and utilization intensity of ocean, are given birth to ocean Pollution damage caused by state environment frequently occurs, such as：Perioperative cardiac events, dredging dig sand, fill, build Binhai Highway, is over strait big The multiple types marine engineerings such as bridge, seabed tunnel, exploration of ocean resources exploitation；From production and life emission source petroleum-type, COD, nitrogen phosphorus compound, pesticide, heavy metal, chemicals, hot and cold, chlorine residue, adventive, pathogen, suspension bed sediment, micro- plastics Equal Sea-going Pollutants；Oil spilling, harmful influence and radioactive pollutant incident of leakage, seriously threaten Marine Environmental Security and exposed population group Health is protected and is damaged for the marine eco-environment there is an urgent need to study the damage judgement of the science of foundation and appraisal and evaluation technical system Harmful judicial expertise, penalty of calling to account, claim ask repay, sufficient repair provides science and technology support.

Environmental Protection Department publication《Eco-environmental damage appraisal and evaluation technical manual superclass》, it is specified that ecological environment damage General principle, program, content and the method for evil appraisal and evaluation, such as：Legal conjunction rule, scientific and reasonable, independent objectivity rule；Identification Assessment preparation, damage survey confirmation, Causality Analysis, damage quantization in kind, damage Leakage in Value, assessment report are worked out, are extensive The flows such as multiple recruitment evaluation.Wherein, Causality Analysis content is：Based on pollution environment, destroy ecological behavior and ecological environment The investigation result of damage fact is closed between analysis pollution environment or the ecological behavior of destruction and eco-environmental damage with the presence or absence of cause and effect System；Damage material object quantifies content：Comparison is damaged the difference of state of ecological environment and baseline, determines the range of eco-environmental damage And degree, calculate eco-environmental damage quantity of goods produced；Damaging Leakage in Value content is：Selection substitutes equivalent analysis method.(environment is protected Shield portion, ring do politics and law [2016] 67)

Environmental Protection Department publication《Eco-environmental damage appraisal and evaluation technical manual damage survey》, it is specified that ecological ring General principle, program, content and the method for damage survey in appraisal and evaluation are damaged in border, such as：Normalization, neutrality, it is comprehensive, Promptness principle；Ecological environment baseline visit, investigation of pollution sources, environmental quality investigation, biological survey, ecosystems services tune Look into, eco-environment restoration measure and Expenses, the contents such as eco-environment restoration recruitment evaluation investigation；Survey process is divided into tentatively Investigation and two stages of system investigation, each stage should formulate investigation work scheme respectively.(Environmental Protection Department, ring do politics and law [2016] No. 67)

National Bureau of Oceanography's publication《Marine oil spill ecological damage assessment technology directive/guide》It is formulated with reference to International Maritime Organization 's《International Convention on Civil Liability for Oil Pollution Damage in 1992》, used for reference U.S. ocean and Atmospheric Administration publication《Natural resources Risk assessment Guide Book》, it is specified that marine oil spill marine ecology damaged appraisal procedure, assessment content, appraisal procedure and It is required that, it is intended to by field investigation, data collection, in conjunction with spilled oil identification, numerical simulation technology etc., determine that marine oil spill damages Harmful object, range and program carries out Risk assessment work, is investigation, processing and the ecological damage expense of marine oil spill accident Calculating etc. provides technical basis, and final is to safeguard ecosystem health and sustainable utilization of marine resources service.The directive/guide carries Three phases can be divided by going out assessment, and the first stage determines evaluation work grade；Second stage works out evaluation work outline, using now Means and the technologies such as field investigation, remote Sensing Interpretation, Oil spill identification, sample analysis test and oil drift and diffusion numerical simulation, are looked into Bright oil spilling source, oil spillage, oil spilling range of scatter and process etc. determine briny environment, oceanographic sedimentation substance environment, tidal flat environment, sea Foreign biology, marine ecosystems and Ecosystem are influenced and harm by oil spilling；Phase III is big according to evaluation work Guiding principle works out marine oil spill ecological damage appraisal report, calculates oil spilling and is worth to the total losses that marine ecology damages.(country sea Foreign office, HYT 095-2007)

On October 14th, 2017, national quality supervision and inspection suggest that general bureau's approval is issued《Marine ecology Risk assessment skill Art directive/guide part 1 general provisions》《Marine ecology Risk assessment fire protection technology part 2 marine oil spill》, wherein marine oil spill part Revised on the basis of above-mentioned National Bureau of Oceanography's promulgated standard, general provisions part define marine ecology Risk assessment working procedure, Evaluation work is divided into preparation, investigation, analysis assessment and Report workout four-stage, by ocean by method, content and technology requirement Ecological damage is defined as mankind's activity and changes marine site natural conditions directly, indirectly or be discharged into polluter, energy to marine site, right Adverse effect caused by marine ecosystems and its biology, abiotic component, damage event include ocean exploitation activity and Two class of marine environment accident is specifically divided into marine reclamation land, permeable structures, encloses sea and open sea and oil spilling, danger Dangerous chemical leakage, other pollutant emissions, it is desirable that collect the background information that marine site occurs for event in the preparation stage, carry out scene It makes an on-the-spot survey, analyzes event basic condition and ecological damage feature, determine assessment content, screen the sensitive mesh of the Risk assessment factor, ecology Mark, determines assessment surveys range and method, works out evaluation work scheme, then carries out assessment, screening water quality, deposit, biology, The ecology element such as hydrodynamic force and erosion and deposition, the changing condition before and after comparison event determine that damage range, object, degree, establishment are repaired Scheme carries out value assessment, establishment assessment report etc..(GB/T 34546.1-2017, GB/T 34546.2-2017)

Tang is small fine et al.《The key precondition of environmental nuisance reparation：Causality judges》One text, mentions causality and sentences It is fixed directly to decide because of contaminated matter so the environmental resource economic loss that sustained damage recover, however it is stagnant due to recognizing Afterwards, the research of this respect still belongs to blank.This article is from the cause and effect chain of environmental nuisance, i.e.,：Pollutant (A) → arranged from pollution sources Go out external (B) and → by medium diffusion (C) → reach damage receptor (D) → generation damage (E), it is proposed that environmental nuisance cause and effect is closed It is the flow of judgement, is：(1) pollution sources and pollutant are identified；(2) confirm damage, judge whether there is environmental resource and damaged Evil；(3) route of exposure is established, identification pollutant reaches the path of receptor from pollution sources；(4) pollutant and harmful consequences are proved Relevance.(《Chinese population resource and environment》The 8th phase of volume 22)

Shandong Yulong et al. exists《Environmental pollution by water damages the causality determination method research of appraisal and evaluation》In one text, mention Causal judgement is the key points and difficulties of environmental nuisance appraisal and evaluation, and correlation presumption theory includes：Whether there is or not relational theory, things Bright theory of real example itself, epidemiology cause and effect management theory, probability causality theories, indirectly counterevidence theory etc., and based on pollution Object is demonstrate,proved from the source emission causality chain that generation environment is damaged by diffusive migration path reaches receptor, structure causality According to chain, it is proposed that 7 steps of causality determination method, i.e.,：(1) it collects evidence, specifies disposal of pollutants and ecological damage It is true；(2) consistency polluted in discharge and medium is verified in investigation；(3) reasonable from analysis transmission path in transmission diffusion mechanism Property；(4) possibility of pollution is differentiated by environmental monitoring；(5) the entire exposure path unit of identification determines whether that composition is complete sudden and violent Reveal path；(6) consistency between analysis exposure and damage；(7) comprehensive judgement is provided with the presence or absence of causal conclusion. (《Environmental science and management》The o. 11th of volume 41)

Environmental Protection Department environmental planning institute exists《Environmental nuisance appraisal and evaluation recommends method (Section II version)》In one text, mention by Causality judgement between pollution environmental behaviour and the environmental nuisance fact is divided into two parts, and (1) environmental exposure is damaged with environment Causality judges between evil；(2) foundation and verification in exposure path of the environmental contaminants from source to receptor.(Environmental Protection Department is done The public Room, ring do [2014] No. 90)

Liu Anping et al. exists《Environmental pollution causes chronic healthy damage causality judgement》In one text, it is slow to mention environmental pollution Sex-health damage is especially prominent, but the judgement of its causality is difficult, is the very strong work of science, needs stringent Decision procedure and careful judgement thinking, establish practicable decision procedure.This article uses for reference sentencing for epidemiology criterion Fixed condition, i.e.,：(1) there is the factor for generating and damaging in contaminated area, in addition to the factor, other factors less may be used under identical condition It can cause similar damage；(2) factor is existing before damage generates；(3) action intensity with detrimental effect of the factor are deposited In dose-response relationship；(4) there are a certain number of crowds impaired in contaminated area；(5) mechanism that the factor generates damage meets life Object theory, and use for reference the judgement basic program of counterevidence criterion indirectly, i.e.,：(1) blowdown enterprise generates pollutant；(2) outward Environmental emission；(3) it is converted and is spread by surrounding medium；(4) human contact is to the pollutant；(5) damage occurs, it is proposed that environment Pollution causes the causality of chronic healthy damage to judge basic program, is generally served as theme with a causality vessel used to hold grain at the imperial sacrifice, including： (1) primary pollution source and pollutant are determined；(2) blowdown approach and process are determined；(3) environmental pollution and Transport And Transformation thing are determined It is real；(4) it is true to determine that regional environment and local resident expose；(5) damage fact is determined.(《China and meeting medical journal》27th Rolled up for the 5th phase)

The above-mentioned fire protection technology in relation to marine ecology Risk assessment although refer to " comprehensive utilization reconnaissance trip, environmental monitoring, The methods of biological monitoring, model prediction or remote sensing analysis (such as aerial photograph, satellite image etc.) determine marine ecology damage Possible range carries out marine ecology damage confirmation and causality judgement on this basis, final to determine marine ecology damage model Enclose and degree ", but be not directed to causality judgement method, other papers in relation to environmental nuisance causality determination method And guide, then it only stays in and is analyzed causality determining conceptual, step description, shortage can determine that ocean is given birth to The causal specific method of state environmental nuisance and mating submodel technical support, in conclusion these guides, leading Then, paper focuses primarily on：

1. providing general principle, program, content and the method for eco-environmental damage appraisal and evaluation and damage survey；

2. appraisal procedure, content, method and requirement that regulation marine oil spill damages marine ecology are accident investigation, place Reason and the calculating of ecological damage expense etc. provide technical basis；

3. propose establish based on pollutant from source by diffusive migration path reach receptor by generation environment damage because Fruit relationship chain, to determine the suggestion of judgement workflow.

Although《Marine oil spill ecological damage assessment technology directive/guide》It refers to reflect using field investigation, remote Sensing Interpretation, oil spilling Not, means and the technology such as sample analysis test and oil drift and diffusion numerical simulation finds out that oil spilling source, oil spillage, oil spilling expand Dissipate range and process etc., determine briny environment, oceanographic sedimentation substance environment, tidal flat environment, marine organisms, marine ecosystems and Ecosystem is influenced and harm by oil spilling, but does not refer to the content of causality judgement, is also not known from source and is passed through expansion The causality chain that migration path reaches receptor and generation environment damage is dissipated, is only carried in general manner in assessment report reqirement of compilation Go out " providing related evaluation conclusion ".

There is also following some shortcomings for the existing technical method in relation to eco-environmental damage appraisal and evaluation：

1. being primarily adapted for use in the appraisal and evaluation of single, isolated damage event, lack commenting for multiple damage event synergistic effects Estimate method；

2. being primarily upon the damage of ecological environment and its ecosystems services state, lack to ecosystem structure, process With impaired appraisal procedure；

3. not with can provide the aided assessment technology utilized and match, be mutually connected；

4. not considering damage of the eco-environmental damage to contact population health.

Above-mentioned deficiency results in some researchs and fails comprehensively to recognize the origin cause of formation and consequence of marine eco-environment damage.

Such as：According to the experiment of Laizhou Bay of Bohai Sea ocean Mesocosm as a result, simply inference is " in average annual concentration conditions Under, petroleum hydrocarbon can not generate significant impact to Bohai Sea phytoplankton growth on the whole ", without in depth analyzing plant of swimming The little origin cause of formation of object variable density, i.e.,：Since oil spilling compromises zooplankter and other marine organisms simultaneously, cause for consuming The upper strata food chain biomass of phytoplankton is accordingly reduced.Again for example：The generation and control of CHINESE OFFSHORE red tide, on the one hand no doubt It is related with the emission status and environmental condition of eutrophication and pollutant, but then, it should also fully consider alien species Source item contribution in terms of invasion, otherwise, causal chain and judgement are just imperfect.(Wang Xiulin etc.《Bohai Sea primary chemical is dirty Contaminate object marine environmental capacity》, Science Press)

Also for example：Although the research of the Huanghai Sea green tide Enteromorpha origin cause of formation is confirmed and deposited between green alga on the laver culture raft of northern Suzhou In species and the relevance of spatial and temporal distributions, but have ignored Jiaozhou Bay and the yellow a large amount of Perioperative cardiac events engineerings in the Bohai Sea, cause flow and Erosion and deposition condition changes and Global climate change etc., and affects the structure, process and function of the ecosystem these aspects The origin cause of formation.(Special Issue：Green Tides in the Yellow Sea, Estuarine coastal and Shelf science, Vol.163, Part A)

Invention content

(1) goal of the invention

In order to overcome the above-mentioned deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of marine eco-environment damage determination method, Including：6 kinds of marine eco-environment damage causality chain models, the four class causalities judgement with logic progressive relationship are accurate Then and index, the polymorphic type aided assessment model system architectural schemes to match with decision criteria, subregion classification subitem are classified It is marine eco-environment damage to the environment baseline and extent of damage decision criteria and index system establishment scheme, easily damaged because of daughter lesion journey Degree and the quantization determination method of damage source item contribution, to be scientifically to judge marine engineering, production and living disposal of pollutants, burst Marine pollution incident is damaged caused by the marine eco-environment and health and consequence, for damage identification and assessment, call to account With reparation and active and effective the defence, disposition, environmental harness approaches measure of pollution damage is taken to provide a set of clear, letter Victory, system, effective causality decision technology are supported.

(2) technical solution

The technical solution adopted by the present invention to solve the technical problems is：A kind of marine eco-environment damage judgement side is provided Method comprising：6 kinds of marine eco-environment damage causality chain models, four class causes and effects with the progressive judgement sequence of logic Relationship decision criteria and index, the polymorphic type aided assessment model system architectural schemes to match with decision criteria, subregion classification It itemizes the marine eco-environment damage to the environment baseline of classification and extent of damage decision criteria and index system establishment scheme, easily damaged The factor extent of damage and the quantization determination method of damage source item contribution, concrete composition are as follows：

6 kinds of marine eco-environments damage causality chain model：The persistent pollutant marine eco-environment Damaging mechanisms MODEL C JCM1 endangers the approach and consequences analysis model of exposed population group's health because the marine eco-environment is damaged CJCM2, invasive plants, production and living disposal of pollutants, Perioperative cardiac events dredge these marine engineerings and marine ecosystems are caused to lose Weighing apparatus and disaster causality chain MODEL C JCM3, CJCM4, CJCM5 for taking place frequently, pollutant damage source item and classification damage and after The causality chain MODEL C JCM6 of fruit.

The sequence of judgement successively that the four classes causality decision criteria has logic progressive, per one kind criterion with respective Proprietary Judging index, respectively：

Criterion occurs for the first kind-source item, because：Known and unknown damage event, fruit has occurred：It will necessarily be in event Certain type, degree and the damage of the marine eco-environment of duration are caused after generation, damage type and degree should be according to source item Type, intensity and distribution, disposition situation, environmental condition and specifically judge, can be reported thus according to event, document and media are remembered It carries, the generation of surveillance and monitoring and the materials of identification of tracing to the source judgement event, and analyses whether that there are the hairs of unknown impairment source item event Raw, Judging index is：The time for the evidence, generation that type, the event of single or multiple damage source items occur really and position, In, damage source item is divided into marine engineering, production and living disposal of pollutants, suddenly accident three types, the damage of marine engineering class Source item can be subdivided into Perioperative cardiac events, dredging, marine dykes and dams bridge, Binhai Highway, seabed engineering, the damage of production and living disposal of pollutants class Petroleum-type, COD, nitrogen phosphorus compound, pesticide, heavy metal, chemicals, hot and cold, chlorine residue, adventive, the cause of disease of source item discharge Body, suspension bed sediment, micro- plastics these pollutants can be subdivided into chemical classes, physics class, biological pollutant, suddenly accident class Damage source item can be subdivided into oil spilling, harmful influence leakage, radioactive substance leakage；

Second class-source item pollutes criterion, because of one：Persistent pollutant discharges, fruit one：The marine eco-environment damages class Type is complicated, and toxic hazard is higher, and the duration is longer, because of two：Perishability pollutant emission, fruit two：Marine ecology ring Border damage type is relatively simple, and the extent of damage is lighter, and the duration is shorter, and more volatile as gasoline fraction or degradation is dirty Dye object is perishability pollutant, and more difficult volatilization or degradation of contaminant as diesel oil distillate are weak persistent pollutant, as Difficult volatilization or degradation of contaminant are middle persistent pollutant as crude oil reduced pressure distillate, are difficult as crude oil decompression residuum Volatilization or degradation of contaminant are strong persistent pollutant, and Judging index is：Composition and the contamination hazard for damaging source item, refer specifically to Mark includes：Whether the pollutant main ingredient of production and living disposal of pollutants class and suddenly accident class damage source item content, has There are persistence, easy diffusivity, marine engineering class to damage the material composition of source item, whether there is contamination hazard；

Third class-classification consequence criterion：Its because：Damaging source item, there are a variety of different states, fruits in marine environment： Correspondence acts on the more trophic level marine eco-environments in more habitats, accordingly multiple types is caused to damage, further causes multiple types Factual Damage, wherein sea and partly latent floating state pollutant act on seawater body and marine organisms, and volatile evaporation state pollutes Object acts on air environment and exposed population group animal, dissolves and acts on seawater body and ocean life by chemical dispersion state pollutant Object, drifts to seashore and bank state pollutant and act on seashore and intertidal organism, is sunken to sedimentary sedimentation state pollutant and acts on Sedimentary and benthon absorb absorption by organism and state pollutant of looking for food act on food chain biology, and degradation state then acts on In seawater body, seashore, sedimentary, the marine organisms of getting dirty, Judging index is：Source item is damaged to give birth in more habitats and more trophic level oceans State in state environment, caused by classification damage and the classification consequence that further results in, wherein

The specific targets of more habitat marine eco-environments include：Sea and different water depth layer briny environment, sea sky Compression ring border, shoal environment, Sediment environment and marine organisms spawning ground present in it, feeding ground, wintering ground, migration are logical Road；

The specific targets of more trophic level marine eco-environments include：Microorganism, plankton, fish eggs and larvae, bottom It dwells biology, intertidal organism, economic fish, necton, these marine organisms of ocean mammal and birds and contact Crowd；

The state of the damage source item in more habitats and more trophic level marine eco-environments include：Non- solubilised state liquid is dirty Dye object is in sea extension and Driftdiffusion and stays under water in certain depth of water layer with ocean current transmission diffusion, solubilised state and by chemical dispersion State liquid pollutant or particulate form pollutant, which enter seawater body and transmitted with ocean current, to spread, and pollutant is transferred to deposition with ocean current Layer and seashore formed sedimentation state and bank state pollutant and be further dispersed within sedimentary and seashore, inhabit sea and The marine organisms of seawater body and sedimentary and seashore are exposed to pollutant and absorption and sorption, intake, degradation of contaminant, into Biological concentration and biomagnification are looked for food and formed to the pollutant for entering marine organisms with food chain by other marine organisms, evaporates state Liquid pollutant enters air environment and exposed population group, birds, mammal, occupies and change sea area condition；

Classification damage concrete type includes caused by described：Water_air exchange is obstructed, briny environment self-purification capacity is reduced, reduces Water quality reduces photosynthesis rate, poisons marine organisms and birds, endangers exposed population group's health, damage seashore and land and sea junction Environmental quality, damage Sediment environment quality, external marine biological invasion, the spatial distribution for changing water front and the depth of water, destroy production Ovum field, feeding ground, wintering ground, barrier migration channel；

The classification consequence concrete type further resulted in includes：PH, dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD₅, nitrogen and phosphorus content, water temperature Lifting amount, oil content, chemicals characteristic contamination content, deleterious pathogens content, micro- plastics, suspended particulate substance some water in this way Area increase, plankton and the fish eggs and larvae survival rate that matter index is deteriorated, region seawater quality is more than relevant national standard It is reduced with biomass, economic fish and necton mortality increase and occur escape, phytoplankton actual measured amount because of the amount of being consumed Decline and increased, birds are injured or dead, exposed population group's correlation incidence of epidemic diseases increases, ocean mammal health Undermined generation escape, the intertidal organism death rate increases and output reduces, the benthon death rate increases and output drop The local species viability space of low, invasive species contention and food, bio-diversity reduce, marine organisms population and food web by Destroy, region hydrodynamic force and changes of erosion and deposition environment, marine organisms habitat loss, the suitable surrounding medium inhabited, flow condition, Nutriment and bait supply changes, living marine resources are impaired, marine ecosystems substance, energy transmission structure and mistake Journey and ecosystem service function are impaired, marine ecosystems balance and stability are impaired, marine ecology disaster takes place frequently；

Four classes-spatial and temporal distributions criterion：Its because：Damage source item enters the quantity of marine environment and is distributed the generation because of event Type and disposition situation and environmental condition and different, fruit：The corresponding quantity for occupying or entering the more trophic level ecological environments in more habitats, Caused by Factual Damage and spatial and temporal distributions need to be aided with investigation and evidence collection and calculate experiment judgement, Judging index is：Damage source item Source strength and spatial position and duration, mitigate source strength abatement amount and spatial position and the duration of damage source item countermeasure, The extent of damage grade scale of the damage of classification subitem and its subitem consequence of classifying, the spatial distribution and hold that classification subitem classification damages Continuous time, specific targets include：Total occupancy, discharge capacity, recycle and drift to seashore amount, be dispersed into water body stripping quantity, Natural volatile quantity, dissolving enter water body amount, by bio-absorbable, adsorbance and intake, degradation amount, seawater quality, deposit and sea The exceeded area incrementss of bank band quality, the exceeded situation of biological quality, marine organisms population and food web, region hydrodynamic force and erosion and deposition Environment changes situation, marine organisms habitat loss situation, surrounding medium, flow condition, nutriment and bait suitable for inhabiting Material supply situation of change, marine biodiversity, biomass, fishery resources amount, marine ecosystem services function reduce situation, Marine ecosystems balance and stability condition in damaged, region marine ecology disaster type, the frequency, area, exposed population group's prevalence Sick incidence increases situation.

For describe causality decision criteria and typical Judging index of above-mentioned four class with the progressive sequence of logic because Fruit relationship decision model is shown in Fig. 1.

The persistent pollutant marine eco-environment damaging mechanisms MODEL C JCM1 describes following Chain of Causation Item：After persistent pollutant enters marine environment, it is not soluble in water at branch in sea and different water depth layer Driftdiffusion, easily Volatilization at branch with weathering effect evaporation in air, it is soluble or water body is entered at branch by chemical dispersion, when When pollutant touches seashore, sedimentary or marine organisms, it may occur that Transport And Transformation between multimedium and by bio-absorbable and tired Product, it is possible to form biological concentration and biomagnification via food chain, and enter human body, when organism is exposed to persistence dirt Object is contaminated, the function and structure of cell and molecule can be caused to get muddled, while causing the selfreparing of cell and molecular level, and is worked as When persistent pollutant concentration reaches certain level, then it can cause to occur excessively repairing or cause to repair to be obstructed, and then generate one The toxicological effect of series, including：Phytoplankton division rate and photosynthesis rate are reduced, bio-tissue necrosis and fiber are caused Change, offspring's survival rate is caused to decline, hereditary variation occurs, inhibit function of immune system, forms hyperplasia, tumour and pernicious These lesions of tumour can correspondingly damage the structure, process and function of the ecosystem, endanger exposed population group's health.

Persistent pollutant causes during environment weathering, Transport And Transformation, biotransfer occur for the more trophic levels in more habitats Marine eco-environment damage is shown in Fig. 2 with the damaging mechanisms MODEL C JCM1 that causality chain is built.

Approach and the JCM2 descriptions of consequences analysis MODEL C that exposed population group's health is endangered because of marine eco-environment damage Following causality chain：The approach that persistent pollutant enters human body includes：Breathing intake, skin contact absorb, and lead to It crosses marine organisms food chain and is introduced into fish, meat, milk dairy products and eaten again, and pass through placenta and lactation is passed to infants It is interior, once it is enriched in human organ, fat and fiber, it is likely that cause not normal endocrine disturbance, neurobehavioral, reproduction and exempts from Epidemic disease system destruction, cancer and tumour, depauperation in this way some symptoms, and then formed exposed population group in relevant disease incidence compared with High hazard analysis and HACCP.

With causality chain build persistent pollutant enter exposed population group and cause health hazard approach and after Fruit analysis model CJCM2 is shown in Fig. 3.

The invasive plants cause marine ecosystems unbalance and disaster takes place frequently causality chain MODEL C JCM3 Describe following causality chain：External marine organisms will give birth to once successfully invading local marine site with local species contention Space and food are deposited, is easy to form large area single dominant group due to lacking natural enemy, other species are then lost to inhabit Environment causes bio-diversity to reduce, and local population and food web are destructurized, causes the ecosystem unbalance and disaster frequency Hair.

The production and living disposal of pollutants causes marine ecosystems unbalance and disaster takes place frequently causality chain model CJCM4 describes following causality chain：Production and living disposal of pollutants has exceeded environmental carrying capacity, leads to region marine environment Self-purification capacity is impaired, and marine environmental quality deteriorates and eutrophication, and then adaptability species is caused to rise suddenly and sharply, and non-adaptability species are lost Suitable for habitat, biotic population and food web are impaired, and diversity reduces, and causes the ecosystem unbalance and disaster takes place frequently.

The Perioperative cardiac events dredge that these marine engineerings cause marine ecosystems unbalance and disaster takes place frequently causality chain MODEL C JCM5 describes following causality chain：Perioperative cardiac events dredge these marine engineerings and occupy marine environment, cause biology Habitat is undermined the variation of water front depth condition, leads to region drive marine and erosion and deposition environmental change, and then cause habitat Condition, the change of nutriment and bait supply and marine organism growth breeding are impaired, and bio-diversity reduces, and causes to give birth to State system imbalance and disaster take place frequently.

Marine ecology is caused due to invasive plants, production and living disposal of pollutants, Perioperative cardiac events dredge these marine engineerings Causality chain MODEL C JCM3, CJCM4, CJCM5 that system imbalance and disaster take place frequently be shown in the left figure in Fig. 4, in Figure, right figure.

The pollutant damage source item and the causality chain MODEL C JCM6 of classification damage and consequence describe following Causality chain：Pollutant enters after marine environment since the comprehensive function of itself composition and environmental condition is possible to present not Same state correspondingly acts on the more trophic level marine eco-environments in certain more habitats again, causes different types of damage, and Corresponding consequence is further resulted in, such as：

Non- solubilised state liquid pollutant mainly act on depth of water layer where it seawater body and planktonic organism, nekton, Fish eggs and larvae, the evaporation state pollutant that volatile pollutant is formed mainly act on air environment and exposed population group, birds and sea Foreign mammal, solubilised state and seawater body and planktonic organism are mainly acted on by chemical dispersion state liquid pollutant, swimming is given birth to Object, fish eggs and larvae, be transmitted to seashore formation bank state pollutant mainly act on seashore and intertidal organism, be transmitted to deposition The sedimentation state pollutant that layer is formed mainly acts on sedimentary and benthon, and the pollutant of absorption and intake is absorbed by organism It mainly acts on the marine organisms for absorbing absorption and intake pollutant and its upper strata food chain biology of looking for food, pollutant is biological Product after degradation mainly acts on the seawater body being contaminated, seashore, sedimentary, marine organisms；

Such as reduce water quality, poison marine organisms, poison birds and ocean mammal, endanger exposed population group health this The damage of sample, may caused by the synergy by a variety of source item states, and obstruct water_air exchange, reduce water body self-purification ability, Reduce photosynthesis rate, damage seashore and land and sea junction environmental quality, damage Sediment environment quality, poison benthon, The such damage of ecological environment is repaired in intertidal organism, pollution abatement damage, then is caused by certain single source item state 's；

Similarly, the damage of several type is possible to further result in such as dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD simultaneously₅, oil content These water quality index are deteriorated, and exceeded area increases, and plankton, fish eggs and larvae survival rate and biomass reduce, economic fish Increase or escape with nekton mortality, marine ecosystems substance, energy transmission structure and process, ecosystem clothes Impaired some consequences in this way of function of being engaged in, and birds injury or dead, exposed population group's correlation incidence of epidemic diseases increase, ocean lactation Class animal health is impaired or escape occurs, shoreline environment degradation, intertidal organism mortality increase, Sediment environment matter Quantitative change is poor, benthon mortality increases, phytoplankton actual measured amount increased because the amount of being consumed declines, marine environmental quality It makes moderate progress, pollutant consumption Microflora, which obviously increases such consequence, to be further resulted in by the damage of single type 's.

Pollutant damages source item and the detailed chain structure of classification damage and the causality chain MODEL C JCM6 of consequence shows In Fig. 5.

The polymorphic type aided assessment model system architectural schemes to match with decision criteria are：The model system includes Causality decision model, polymorphic type aided assessment model, experimental investigation diagnosing evaluating method and business flow, ocean life State environmental nuisance environment baseline and extent of damage decision criteria and index system, wherein polymorphic type aided assessment model it is specific Composition is as follows：

The model that criteria evaluation judgement occurs for the auxiliary first kind-source item mainly has：Damage source item remote sensing surveillance and monitoring model And database, Factual Damage remote sensing surveillance and monitoring model and database, pollutant fingerprint verification analysis model and database, pollution Source Tracing model；

The model of the second class-source item pollution criteria evaluation judgement is assisted mainly to have：Pollutant kind and composition retrieval model And database, pollutant acute toxicity and chronic toxicity evaluation model and database；

The model of auxiliary third class-classification consequence criteria evaluation judgement mainly has：Damaging mechanisms and environment weathering model And database；

Assisting the model that four classes-spatial and temporal distributions criteria evaluation judges mainly has：Damage Sources term analysis model and database, Damaging source item marine ecology influences dynamic model, the more trophic level ecological damage assessment models in more habitats, marine pollution exposed population group Health risk assessment model, wherein it includes following dynamic model and number that the damage source item marine ecology, which influences dynamic model, According to library：Region ocean current baseline and influence model and database, Ocean Wind-field diagnostic model and pollutant drift model, region erosion and deposition Baseline model and mutation analysis model, region water quality baseline and influence model and database, plankton influence dynamic model And database.

The experimental investigation diagnosing evaluating method and business flow include：It is known, will have and due related evaluation Method and business flow；The marine eco-environment damage to the environment baseline and extent of damage decision criteria and index system packet It includes：The qualitative and quantitative judgement of subregion, damage source item and classification, the easily damaged factor and index subjet, extent of damage grade refers to Mark, these appraisal procedures, business flow, decision criteria and index system and polymorphic type aided assessment model complement each other, and are The judgement of marine eco-environment damage provides support.

The polymorphic type aided assessment model system architectural schemes to match with decision criteria are shown in Fig. 6.

The marine eco-environment damage to the environment baseline and extent of damage decision criteria and refer to that the subregion classification subitem is classified The quantization determination method of mark system constructing plan, the easily damaged factor extent of damage and damage source item contribution is specific as follows：

The first step, the numerous marine ecologies being related to from the above causality chain model, decision model, aided assessment model In environmental factor, induction and conclusion extract with the corresponding representative easily damaged factor of damage source item, including be easy by The classification of the marine eco-environment factor of damage and wherein representative index subjet, such as：PH, oil content in water quality, Dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD₅, benzene homologues, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, BaP, chemicals, radioactive indicator, suspended particulate substance, micro- plastics, disease Substance content, petroleum-type, heavy metal in substrate and biological quality, pesticide, benzene homologues, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, BaP, chemicals contain Amount, biological species composition and the phytoplankton in quantity, population density and biomass, zooplankter, fish-egg, larva and juvenile, bottom are dwelt Animal, intertidal zone benthon, fishery resources corresponding index and endemic species, denizen population and food web constructional aspect, dwell Breath ground state in fish spawning ground, feeding ground, wintering ground, the position in migration channel, range, the time, suitable for inhabit fingerling, Surrounding medium, temperature, salinity, flow condition, nutriment and bait supply, region drive marine in ecosystem state and Erosion and deposition environment, substance, energy transmission structure and process, bio-diversity, system balancing and stability, ecosystems services work( Can, in exposed population group's health status with the relevant face of pollutant, skin, digestion, breathing, endocrine, nerve, genetic system Incidence of epidemic diseases；

Second step, point different region and damage source item, determine the easily damaged cytokine environment baseline of each correlation and classification respectively The decision criteria and index of the extent of damage, wherein easily damaged cytokine environment baseline decision criteria is：It is able to maintain that region ocean is given birth to Substance, energy transmission structure and the process of state system are in good, balance, stable state, and can realize its normal ecosystem Index value when service function, the decision criteria that the easily damaged factor is damaged to a certain degree are：In certain time and space model In enclosing, because it is all sent out and with corresponding causal damage source item caused by the easily damaged factor injured degree, And the easily damaged factor current value and its difference of environment baseline index value are directly proportional, and difference is bigger, and the extent of damage is heavier, and difference is got over Small, the extent of damage is lighter；

Third walks, and for multinomial known and unknown damage source item, quantization judges them to corresponding easily damaged factor institute By the degree of cumulative damage, shown in quantization formula such as formula (1)：

In formula,

ΔDD_{I, j, k}：The degree of cumulative damage suffered by the i-th easily damaged factor of region jth period kth item；

TV_{I, j, k, l}：The magnitude that the i-th region jth easily damaged factor of period kth item is damaged by l damage source items；

DV_{I, j, k}：The measured value of the i-th easily damaged factor of region jth period kth item；

BV_{I, j, k}：The environment baseline index value of the i-th easily damaged factor of region jth period kth item；

4th step, for specific known or unknown damage source item, quantization judges it to suffered by the corresponding easily damaged factor The contribution margin of damage, shown in quantization formula such as formula (2)：

In formula,

TV_{I, j, k, l=m}：It betides suffered by m damage source item pair the i-th region jth period easily damaged factors of kth item of J0 periods The contribution margin of damage；

DV_{I, j, k}：The same formula of meaning (1)；

DV_{I, j=J0-1, k}：The measured value of the i-th easily damaged factor of region J0-1 period kth items；

TV_{I, j, k, l ≠ m}：The i-th region jth easily damaged factor of period kth item is by the l damage source item damages in addition to m Magnitude.

(3) advantage and effect

It is an advantage of the invention that marine eco-environment damage causality determination method is systematically created, including：6 kinds The marine eco-environment is damaged causality chain model, the four class causality decision criterias with logic progressive relationship and is referred to The ocean life that mark, the polymorphic type aided assessment model system architectural schemes to match with decision criteria, subregion classification subitem are classified State environmental nuisance environment baseline and extent of damage decision criteria and index system establishment scheme, the easily damaged factor extent of damage and damage The quantization determination method of evil source item contribution, as Perioperative cardiac events, dredging, marine dykes and dams bridge, Binhai Highway, seabed engineering Marine engineering, petroleum-type, COD, nitrogen phosphorus compound, pesticide, heavy metal, chemicals, hot and cold, chlorine residue, adventive, pathogen, Chemical classes, physics class as suspension bed sediment, micro- plastics from production and living pollution sources, biological species pollutant emission, ocean Oil spilling, harmful influence leakage, the such suddenly accident of radioactive substance leakage, classify in detail construct based on damaging mechanisms, Approach, process and the causality of consequences analysis chain are formd for judging that the generation for damaging source item is given birth to more with polluting property, The causality decision criteria and index of the more trophic level classification Factual Damages in border, source item and damage spatial and temporal distributions, and phase therewith The quantization judgement side of mating submodel and index system establishment scheme, the easily damaged factor extent of damage and damage source item contribution Method, for scientifically judging that marine engineering, production and living disposal of pollutants, suddenly accident are strong to the marine eco-environment and human body Damage and consequence caused by health, for damage identification and assessment, call to account and compensate and active and effective take pollution damage Defence, disposition, environmental harness approaches measure provides a set of clear, simple and direct, system, effective causality decision technology is supported.

Invention creates marine eco-environment damage causality determination method and mating submodels and index body It is the quantization determination method of constructing plan, the easily damaged factor extent of damage and damage source item contribution, compensates for and existing be related to damaging Source item, the impaired factor, environment baseline and the index of extent of damage assessment are scattered, method missing, measured value judgement damage are difficult to be utilized Evil degree and source item contribution, ignorance judge that the shortcoming to form cumulative damage coexists in multinomial damage source item, have filled up marine ecology ring The blank of causality determination method in appraisal and evaluation technology is damaged in border.

Description of the drawings

Fig. 1：Causality decision model schematic diagram with the progressive sequence of logic；

Fig. 2：The persistent pollutant marine eco-environment damages causality chain MODEL C JCM1 schematic diagrames；

Fig. 3：Persistent pollutant endangers exposed population group's health causality chain MODEL C JCM2 schematic diagrames；

Fig. 4：Invasive plants, production and living disposal of pollutants, marine engineering cause marine ecosystems unbalance and disaster Causality chain MODEL C JCM3, CJCM4, CJCM5 schematic diagram to take place frequently；

Fig. 5：Pollutant damages source item and classification damage and consequence causality chain MODEL C JCM6 schematic diagrames；

Fig. 6：The polymorphic type aided assessment model system architectural schemes schematic diagram to match with decision criteria；

Fig. 7：This century oil spill for Bohai Sea and harmful influence accident, which confirm water quality impact causality, to be schemed；

Fig. 8：This century Huanghai Sea oil spilling and harmful influence accident, which confirm water quality impact causality, to be schemed；

Fig. 9：CHINESE OFFSHORE invasive plants disaster relevant control countermeasure and effect confirmation figure；

Figure 10：Jiaozhou Bay and prince wife Cao pasture marine site Perioperative cardiac events area year border distribution map；

Figure 11：Northern Huanghai Sea marine site and Bohai Sea green tide Enteromorpha area year border distribution map；

Figure 12：Yang Shan deep water port area marine engineering marine organisms number of species influence monitoring causality confirmation figure；

Figure 13：Inland of China increases cancer morbidity year border distribution map newly since this century；

Figure 14：It increases overproof area reckoning value after Dalian " 7.16 " accident newly and mutually confirms figure with bulletin actual measurement value added；

Figure 15：The multiple harbours of CHINESE OFFSHORE share 9 sections of course line district location and number schematic diagram.

Specific implementation mode

A kind of marine eco-environment of the present invention damages causality determination method.Including：The damage of 6 kinds of marine eco-environments because Fruit relationship chain model, the four class causality decision criterias with logic progressive relationship and index match with decision criteria Polymorphic type aided assessment model system architectural schemes, subregion classification subitem classification marine eco-environment damage to the environment baseline and Extent of damage decision criteria and index system establishment scheme, their mutual relationships are：CJCM1, CJCM2 of structure, The marine eco-environment representative this 6 kinds of CJCM3, CJCM4, CJCM5, CJCM6 damages causality chain model, is To put to the proof indirectly caused by persistent pollutant to the marine eco-environment and contact people from mechanism, approach, process, consequence etc. The harm of group's health, ocean caused by invasive plants, production and living disposal of pollutants, Perioperative cardiac events dredge these marine engineerings are given birth to The harm that state system imbalance and disaster take place frequently, pollutant damage more more trophic level marine eco-environment damages in habitat caused by source item And a plurality of types of Factual Damages, causality decision criteria and index are determined on this basis, occur respectively for source item, Polluting property, classification consequence, spatial and temporal distributions this four classes key links, clearly damage and with logic progressive relationship because and Fruit, and to the index in requisition for judgement, the mating polymorphic type auxiliary for proposing auxiliary qualitative and quantitative analysis assessment Judging index Assessment models thus form polymorphic type aided assessment model system architectural schemes, environment baseline and extent of damage decision criteria And the quantization determination method of index system establishment scheme, the easily damaged factor extent of damage and damage source item contribution, scientifically to sentence Determine marine engineering, production and living disposal of pollutants, suddenly accident damaged caused by the marine eco-environment and health and Consequence, for damage identification and assessment, call to account and compensate and active and effective the defence, disposition, environment for taking pollution damage It repairs countermeasuress and a set of clear, simple and direct, system, the support of effective causality decision technology is provided.

According to persistent pollutant marine eco-environment damaging mechanisms MODEL C JCM1, exposed population group's health approach and consequence Analysis model CJCM2 and damage source item and classification damage and the causality chain MODEL C JCM6 of consequence, happen suddenly marine oil spill It can cause persistent pollutant that environment weathering, Transport And Transformation, biotransfer occur in marine environment with harmful influence event, to more The more trophic level marine organisms in habitat generate a series of poisonous effects, or even damage marine ecosystems substance, energy transmission structure With process and ecosystem service function, exposed population group's health is endangered；According to invasive plants, production and living pollution row It puts, Perioperative cardiac events dredge the causality chain model that these marine engineerings cause marine ecosystems unbalance and disaster takes place frequently CJCM3, CJCM4, CJCM5, the ballast water for ship discharge, littoral and marine fixation and mobile pollution source for being loaded with adventive are held Continuous discharge petroleum-type, COD, nitrogen phosphorus compound, hot and cold, chlorine residue, micro- plastics these pollutants, Perioperative cardiac events dredge these and relate to extra large work Journey is possible to cause invasive plants, marine site self-purification capacity impaired respectively and environmental quality deteriorates and eutrophication, biology Habitat is occupied or changes, thus further cause adaptability species rise suddenly and sharply and non-adaptability species are lost suitable for inhabiting ring Border, original habitat and nutrition and bait supply change, and cause local population and food web frame to be destroyed, marine organisms Growth and breeding is impaired, bio-diversity reduces, and causes the ecosystem unbalance and disaster takes place frequently.

Using causality decision criteria and index, the causality judgement with the progressive sequence of logic can be made, point It is not：

Criterion occurs for the first kind-source item, because：Known and unknown oil spilling and harmful influence leakage burst pollution thing has occurred Part, adventive with ballast water for ship discharge event, bank and marine fixation and mobile pollution source continued emissions petroleum-type, COD, Nitrogen phosphorus compound, hot and cold, chlorine residue, micro- plastics these pollutant events, Perioperative cardiac events dredge these marine engineering events, fruit：It must The above-mentioned type marine eco-environment to a certain degree with the duration can be so caused to damage after an event occurs, concrete type and journey Degree should according to source item type, intensity and distribution, disposition situation, environmental condition and specifically judge.For this purpose, can be reported according to event, Document and media are recorded, surveillance and monitoring and the materials of identification of tracing to the source judge the generation of event, and analyse whether that there are unknown impairments The generation of source item event, such as：

Case 1：The Bohai Sea and Huanghai Sea oil spilling and harmful influence contamination accident overview (table 1) and state have been betided since collecting this century Ocean office of family ocean overproof water quality area surveys announcement data, passes through causal judgement and the mutual confirmation with field data (Fig. 7~Fig. 8), it was demonstrated that the fairly large and above oil spill accident occurred in yellow Bohai Offshore since this century causes big face Long-pending serious pollution damage causes sea water quality index exceeding standard area where accident current year peak value occur, the extent of damage and continues Time and the total amount and the proportional relationship of persistence for entering extra large oil spilling, the mankind to the marine eco-environment and positioned at food chain top Health hazard is troubling.

The Bohai Sea and Huanghai Sea oil spilling and harmful influence contamination accident overview since 1 this century of table

Case 2：Discharge capacity and state of the collection ballast water that foreign trade ship overseas loads since nineteen ninety-seven in China marine site The national red tide monitoring area announcement data of ocean office of family (National Bureau of Oceanography,《Chinese Sea disaster bulletin》), and it is related international Pact progress (Fig. 9), the results show that along with the process of international trade and globalization, ballast water for ship has become external The main channel of biotic intrusion, first hair country is invaded and harassed by invasion disaster repeatly for American-European Australia day etc., and China is as maximum Hou Fa states The hardship of invasion disaster has also been tasted varieties of by family, and from 1997, with continuing to increase for overseas discharge of ballast water amount, red tide occurs Area is constantly soaring therewith.Canada and Australia were taken the lead in 1989 to the marine ring of International Maritime Organization (IMO) in the world Border protective committee (MEPC) has submitted related motion, MEPC in subsequent 8 years once by and repeatedly have updated《About control and Management ballast water is to reduce the directive/guide of unwanted aquatic organism and pathogen migration》, and pass through in IMO《International shipping pressure in 2004 Carry water and its sediment monitoring and management contract》After (compressive effect), have approved successively《Ballast Management and formulation ballast water The directive/guide of governing plan》、《Ballast water coke slurry directive/guide》Deng 14 fire protection technologies, in addition 2 are being write and directed then, formed already complete Ballast Management policies and regulations technical system.Compressive effect has formally effective condition in September, 2017, before this, The states such as Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Norway, Israel, New Zealand, U.S. were from 2004 in the world Unilateral mandatory requirement takes the measures such as ballast water coke slurry successively, and northwest Europe Helsinki belonging country of the committee is in 2008 in east The North Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea apply《Voluntarily it is applicable in the interim general directive/guide of ballast water exchange standard D1》, Black Sea, bay, east Ya Deng regional organizations have formulated regional action plan from 2010, and international carriage labour union requires shipping enterprise actively to coordinate various countries master The non-imposed control measure that pipe organ had taken already load clean ballast water when loading ballast water and reduce with pressure as possible The possibility etc. that water loads sludge is carried, each shipping company of China publishes for 2006 according to China Classification Society (CCS)《Ballast for cruising Water management planning guide》And the concrete condition of respective ship is combined, ballast water for ship governing plan is formulated, and be included in ship The critical operations file of oceangoing ship is ready for Port State inspection, and Chinese foreign-going ship answers Port State requirement to implement in full Ballast water replacement operator, CCS are issued in November, 2015《Compressive effect implementation guide》, analyze pact and implement in ship Inspection issues licence, difficult, weight existing for Port State censored sample analysis method, Ballast Management system (BWMS) reliability etc. Point selects and arranges with regard to BWMS, applied with ship, additional ballast pump and U.S. waters are applicable in and require for shipping world to provide technology Guidance.The judgement of causality that Fig. 9 is shown and with the mutual confirmation of field data the result shows that, as global range is resisted outside Carry out being in full swing for biotic intrusion disaster action, although the amount of discharge of ballast water overseas into China coastal seas is still continuing to increase, But since the adventive type and quantity that are carried in ballast water for ship are gradually declined, and then since two thousand four, China Coastal red tide area is in downward trend year by year.

Case 3：Have collected National Bureau of Oceanography《Chinese Sea environmental aspect bulletin》, enter within 2011~2015 years extra large sewage draining exit row The major pollutants put are total phosphorus, COD_Cr, suspended matter and ammonia nitrogen, the main pollution element of water quality in sewage draining exit Adjacent Sea Area water body Main pollution element for inorganic nitrogen, reactive phosphate, COD and petroleum-type, deposit is petroleum-type, copper, chromium, mercury, cadmium, vulcanization The main pollution element of object and excrement colibacillus group, biological quality is excrement colibacillus group, lead, cadmium, zinc, petroleum hydrocarbon and DDT.It should Monitoring result show littoral and marine fixation and mobile pollution source continued emissions petroleum-type, COD, nitrogen phosphorus compound, heavy metal, These pollutants of pesticide, pathogen have resulted in the marine eco-environment damage to a certain degree with the duration really.

Case 4：Have collected remote sensing information that Jiaozhou Bay and the Bohai Sea pastures Cao Fei Perioperative cardiac events event occur (Figure 10, thunder are peaceful etc., 《The evolution process and its Eco-environmental Impacts Analysis of Jiaozhou Bay's Perioperative cardiac events》, marine environment science, 32 (4), Wu Yue etc.,《Prince wife Cao Pasture Tian Hai makes ground spatial and temporal distributions remote sensing monitoring and its influences Primary Study》, ocean lakes and marhshes notification, 2013 (1)) and the life of Enteromorpha green alga State disaster field data (Figure 11, National Bureau of Oceanography,《Chinese Sea disaster bulletin》), according to external dependent observation document, South Korea The surrounding waters Xin Wanjin damming works cause M2 amplitudes of component tide to reduce 8~10cm, and delay angle reduces about 3.5 degree, Japan's Tokyo bay Weaken about 20% since area reduces gulf mouthful velocity ratio nineteen sixty-eight nineteen eighty-three, influence of the Perioperative cardiac events to trend not only results from low coverage Ground marine site, and to far from the marine site filled out is enclosed, there is also significant far field effects, provided by causal judgement and with actual measurement The mutual confirmation analysis of material, prince wife Cao pasture marine site Perioperative cardiac events start from 2005, reach until filling out sea product in 3 years of 2007 50km², it is equivalent to Jiaozhou Bay's Perioperative cardiac events area summation in nearly 20 years, reduction level reaches Jiaozhou Bay and receives corresponding tide volume in short term Tide amount long-term accumulated reduces level, that is, is more than the 10% of former tide volume, the reduction of ocean current flow velocity is so that the marine site of the micro- punching of script becomes For micro- silt, and then the structure and process that cause ecosystem matter and energy to transmit change so that green tide Enteromorpha is from 2007 It rises in year and is possible to rise suddenly and sharply in Northern Huanghai Sea marine site and largely enter Jiaozhou Bay and Bohai Sea Gulf.

Case 5：Have collected National Bureau of Oceanography《Chinese Sea environmental aspect bulletin》, to the east of Fukushima, Japans in the 2015 and southeast The Western Pacific in direction is still significantly affected by Fukushima, Japan nuclear leakage accident in 2011, in the marine site seawater sample Fukushima nuclear accident characteristic nuclide caesium -134 can be still detected, -137 activity of caesium still obviously exceeds Japanese immediate offshore area background before nuclear accident It is horizontal；The activity average value of Strontium-90 is higher than the background value before accident in squid (Bart squid) sample.

Second class-source item pollutes criterion, because of one：Persistent pollutant discharges, fruit one：The marine eco-environment damages class Type is complicated, and toxic hazard is higher, and the duration is longer, because of two：Perishability pollutant emission, fruit two：Marine ecology ring Border damage type is relatively simple, and the extent of damage is lighter, and the duration is shorter.For this purpose, can be reported according to event, document and media are remembered It carries, composition and the contamination hazard of surveillance and monitoring and the materials of identification of tracing to the source judgement damage source item, such as：

The Bohai Sea and Huanghai Sea oil spilling and harmful influence contamination accident are most absolutely since this century investigated in the table 1 of above-mentioned case 1 Number is crude oil and fuel oil, belongs to persistent pollutant, therefore, it is determined that marine eco-environment damage type is complicated caused by corresponding, Toxic hazard is higher, and the duration is longer.

Main pollution element petroleum-type, copper, chromium, mercury, cadmium and the biology for the Marine Sediment Around that above-mentioned case 3 is investigated Main pollution element lead, cadmium, zinc, petroleum hydrocarbon and the DDT of quality, belong to persistent pollutant, therefore, it is determined that caused by corresponding The marine eco-environment damages type complexity, and toxic hazard is higher, and the duration is longer.

To the east of the Fukushima, Japan that above-mentioned case 5 is investigated and southeastern direction Western Pacific seawater sample caesium -134 and caesium - The activity average value of Strontium-90 belongs to persistence higher than the background value before accident in 137 activity and squid (Bart squid) sample Pollutant, therefore, it is determined that marine eco-environment damage type is complicated caused by corresponding, toxic hazard is higher, and the duration is longer.

Case 6：Have collected Panamanian nationality oil carrier " Sang Ji " the wheel East Sea collision fire accident for betiding on January 6th, 2018 Information, 11.13 ten thousand tons of Cargo Oils being loaded with of " Sang Ji " wheel are condensate, are commonly called as " natural gasoline ", after at sea having burnt 8 days in 45 divide sinking, entrained bunker fuel oil to come from the port of departure, about 1900 tons, separately there is a small amount of light diesel when 14 days 16 January, sink When at most also have 1200 tons of heavy oil and 100 tons or so of diesel oil, be determined as according to the causality that information above is made：" mulberry It is lucky " condensate carried is taken turns although quantity is big, main ingredient is that gasoline fraction is more volatile or degradation of contaminant, is belonged to non- Persistent pollutant, caused by the marine eco-environment damage type it is relatively simple, the extent of damage is lighter, and the duration is shorter, " mulberry It is lucky " a small amount of diesel oil of carrier band is taken turns as more difficult volatilization or degradation of contaminant, belong to weak persistent pollutant, the extent of damage is lighter, continues Time is shorter, and it is difficult to volatilize or degradation of contaminant that 1200 tons of heavy oil of " Sang Ji " wheel carrier band are such as crude oil decompression residuum, Belong to strong persistent pollutant, the marine eco-environment damages type complexity, and toxic hazard is higher, and the duration is longer.

Third class-classification consequence criterion：Its because：Damaging source item, there are a variety of different states, fruits in marine environment： Correspondence acts on the more trophic level marine eco-environments in more habitats, accordingly multiple types is caused to damage, further causes multiple types Factual Damage.

Case 7：Have collected 2001 before the construction of Shanghai International Shipping Center Yang Shan deep water port area marine engineering and Thereafter 4 years phytoplanktons, zooplankter, benthon, intertidal organism, fish eggs and larvae, catches species quantity measured value (Figure 12), marine engineering include Perioperative cardiac events, waterway dredging and small ocean mountain island and Shanghai Lu Chaogangqu between island chain the East Sea across Extra large Bridge Construction carries out marine eco-environment background survey according to plan before construction, and investigation marine site hair is happened to be in before investigating Chemicals ship impact failure event has been given birth to, about 500 tons of styrene has been leaked, current year aquatic products is caused to be contaminated damage, China Eriocheir juvenile crab market current year can be seen that from the Annual variations of above-mentioned Eco Environmental Factors monitoring result due to the dirt without city Pollutant styrene in dye event has water solubility, is mainly damaged in a short time to water quality and plankton, causes to float Floristics Monitoring of Quantity value of moving about is obviously relatively low, background values should not be used as accordingly being damaged caused by comparing marine engineering, Simultaneously because the contamination accident not yet brings obviously the monitoring result of benthon, intertidal organism, fish eggs and larvae, catches It influences, therefore still can be used as background values for accordingly being damaged caused by comparing marine engineering, monitoring result is shown, the marine engineering It is the most notable on benthic influence, it is secondly intertidal organism, fish eggs and larvae, catches.(Lan Ru, Qiao Bing,《Water carrier Influence research of the journey to fishery resources species diversity》, sea pollution is prevented and emergence technology conference Papers collection, Chinese environmental Science Press)

These this century of comprehensive analysis case 1~7 betide CHINESE OFFSHORE and its multiple types of surrounding sea areas relate to extra large work Journey, production and living disposal of pollutants, suddenly accident damage source item, they are in more habitats and more trophic level marine eco-environments There are various states, including occupy and change sea area condition, non-solubilised state liquid pollutant sea extend and Driftdiffusion with And it stays under water in certain depth of water layer with ocean current transmission diffusion, solubilised state and by chemical dispersion state liquid pollutant or particulate form pollutant Transmit into seawater body and with ocean current and spread, pollutant with ocean current be transferred to sedimentary and seashore formed sedimentation state and bank state It pollutant and is further dispersed within sedimentary and seashore, inhabits the sea on sea and seawater body and sedimentary and seashore Foreign biology is exposed to pollutant and absorption and sorption, intake, degradation of contaminant, into marine organisms pollutant with food chain Look for food and formed biological concentration and biomagnification by other marine organisms, evaporation state liquid pollutant enter air environment and Exposed population group, birds, mammal, some change the spatial distribution of water front and the depth of water, destroy spawning ground, feeding ground, overwintering , barrier migration channel, some causes external marine biological invasion, some barrier water_air exchanges to reduce water quality, photosynthesis speed Rate, briny environment self-purification capacity damage seashore and land and sea junction, Sediment environment quality, poison marine organisms and birds, harm Exposed population group's health, destroys marine organisms population and food web, some change regions hydrodynamic force and erosion and deposition environment and nutrients Matter and bait supply, reduce living marine resources amount and bio-diversity, cause marine ecosystems substance, energy transmission structure And process and ecosystem service function, marine ecosystems balance and stability are damaged, and marine ecology disaster is caused to take place frequently.Root According to《2015 Cancer in China statistical data are reported》(Hao Jie, Chen Wanqing etc.,《Cancer statistics in China, 2015》, CA-Cancer J Clin, 66 (2)) and the publication of National Cancer Center in 2017 the newest cancer data of China, to this century with Carry out the newly-increased cancer morbidity Annual variations situation in inland of China and is analyzed (Figure 13), it can be seen that, from 2000 to 2010 Year 10 years between, it is annual newly-increased to make a definite diagnosis cases of cancer and be doubled, reach nearly 3,000,000, and according to trend analysis, arrive the year two thousand twenty It can also be increased to again and increase 4,000,000 newly every year, among these, in addition to fresh water, grassland, forest, farmland and urban ecological system are damaged Contribution except, also have the contribution that marine ecosystems are damaged, consequence is troubling.

Four classes-spatial and temporal distributions criterion：Its because：Damage source item enters the quantity of marine environment and is distributed the generation because of event Type and disposition situation and environmental condition and different, fruit：The corresponding quantity for occupying or entering the more trophic level ecological environments in more habitats, Caused by Factual Damage and spatial and temporal distributions need to be aided with investigation and evidence collection and calculate experiment judgement, point of mating aided assessment model Class constructing plan is as shown in table 2.

The classification constructing plan list of 2 aided assessment model of table

With the component and average content of crude oil different fractions in pollutant kind and composition retrieval model and database in table 2 Information is most representative, refers to table 3, the representative mechanism mould in table 2 in damaging mechanisms and environment weathering model and database Type refers to Fig. 2~Fig. 5, oil overflow air slaking water quality impact assessment models such as formula (3)-(7), damage Sources term analysis model and number in table 2 Dynamic model, which is influenced, according to library and damage source item marine ecology uses 7 Shanghai International Shipping Center Yang Shan deep water port area ring of above-mentioned case Result of study structure in the Impact Report book of border.

3 crude oil different fractions of table are averaged accounting, classification component average content and main ingredient information

ΔC′_{I, oil, k}=(C_{I, oil, k}-C_{0, oil, k})×M_{I, oil, k}×H_{E, k}/H_r×T_r/T_{E, k} (5)

In formula,For region oil spilling to be assessed the i-th period oil film area coverage；It is to be assessed Spilling scale of the region oil spilling in the i-th period；T_r、A3_rFor region oil spilling maximum oil film thickness to be assessed, oil density；C1_r、 C2_r、C3_r、C4_rFor oily kind of severe to be assessed, moderate, slight, other contaminated area oil film thickness Dynamic genes；ΔC′_{I, oil, k}For root Oil content concentration luffing in oily i-th period of kind of the weathering tests water of kth calculated according to weathering tests result；C_{0, oil, k}、C_{I, oil, k}For Oil content background concn and the i-th period experimental concentration in kth oil kind of weathering tests water；M_{I, oil, k}For kth oil kind of weathering tests i-th Oil content concentration luffing Dynamic gene in period water；H_{E, k}、H_r、T_{E, k}For oily kind of the weathering tests depth of water of kth, oil spilling case waters water Oily kind of the weathering tests oil film thickness of matter sampled point mean depth, kth；It is returned for the i-th period of region oil spilling to be assessed Receipts amount；Enter the weight of water body oil spilling for the i-th period of region to be assessed；It is oil spilling to non-envelope It closes water area water-quality and causes the influence area area for surpassing the n-th class water standard；S_{Oil, n}For oil content in the water of the n-th class water standard Limit value；C′_{0, oil}For oil content background concn in regional water to be assessed；F_{I, k, n}：Kth oil kind of the i-th period water quality impact coefficient, F_{I, k, n}=F1_{I, k}×F2_{I, k}×F3_{I, k, n}, F1_{I, k}：Kth oil kind of an i-th period oil spilling causes other water quality index overproof coefficients, F2_{I, k}：Kth oil kind of the i-th period contaminant degradation coefficient, F3_{I, k, n}：The oil spilling that kth i-th period the n-th class water standard of oil kind influences Measure accounting.

By the way that experimental result is taken turns with " Tasman Sea " of document report, compared with Dalian " 7.16 " oil spill accident measured value Compared with to DO, COD, oil content, BOD in model₅The contracting of concentration makes calibration than emulation ratio.On this basis, according to investigation Source item data calculates Dalian " 7.16 " accident current year and the second year Huanghai Sea, Bo Haihai using contaminated area appraising model (formula (4)) Domain petroleum-type concentration increases the area of super a kind of sea water quality standard newly.Peng Lai " 19- occurs being superimposed 7.16 accident next year of Dalian After the influence area of 3 " oil spill accidents, surveyed using the seawater quality index exceeding standard area value added and bulletin of formula (5) estimation Value added can mutually confirm (Figure 14), support the causality for causing overproof water quality to damage two oil spill accidents and sentence Fixed, model calculating parameter is shown in Table 4.

The partial parameters value of 4 Dalian of table " 7.16 " accident current year and next year water quality impact assessment models

The experimental investigation diagnosing evaluating method and the use of business flow are known, will have and due related evaluation side Method and business flow, the marine eco-environment damage to the environment baseline and extent of damage decision criteria and index system, which use, divides The qualitative and quantitative judgement index of region, damage source item classification, the easily damaged factor and index subjet, extent of damage grade, wherein CHINESE OFFSHORE is divided into 9 sections of regions (Figure 15), partition number, title, length, periphery port according to the course line that multiple harbours share Mouth is shown in Table 5, and the subregion is for building and ship shipping and port construction, the relevant damage source item of operation, easily damaged cytokine environment Baseline, extent of damage Judging index system.

The multiple harbours of 5 CHINESE OFFSHORE of table share 9 sections of course line partition number, title, length, periphery harbour

Source item is damaged for each contamination accident in above-mentioned case 1, using formula (2) quantization judgement to the exceeded area of seawater quality The contribution of value added, the exceeded area value added in marine site is usually up to 1~20,000 km where caused by accident current year², recur Exceeded area bigger, duration are longer when contamination accident.

The multiple types that CHINESE OFFSHORE and its surrounding sea areas are betided for these this century of above-mentioned case 1~7 relate to extra large work Journey, production and living disposal of pollutants, suddenly accident damage source item, using the life caused by formula (1) and formula (2) quantization judgement State environmental nuisance causes the newly-increased contribution for making a definite diagnosis the increased extent of damage of cases of cancer and marine eco-environment damage of exposed population group, It is assumed that fresh water, ocean, grassland, forest, farmland and urban ecological system damage have the harm of exposed population group in quantum chemical method Generality, essentially identical to the increased contribution of newly-increased cases of cancer, then each ecosystem damage accumulation about leads to 1,000 between 20 years Ten thousand it is newly-increased make a definite diagnosis cases of cancer, account for about the 0.75% of China's Mainland population, be equivalent in every 400 exposed population group and averagely have 3 people are diagnosed because the single ecosystem damages and suffer from cancer, i.e.,：The joint contribution of 6 kinds of ecosystem damages causes between 20 years It is diagnosed there are about 18 people in every 400 exposed population group and suffers from cancer, the extent of damage is quite serious, be highly desirable to carry out at the same time While fresh water, grassland, forest, farmland and urban ecological system damage prevention are with restoration and compensation, marine ecosystem is carried out energetically The prevention damaged of uniting works with restoration and compensation, it is ensured that the people really enjoys the marine eco-environment of health and safe life Bioplasm amount.

Claims (6)

1. a kind of marine eco-environment damages causality determination method, it is characterised in that：6 kinds of ocean lifes are used in this method State environmental nuisance causality chain model, the four class causality decision criterias with logic progressive relationship and index, with sentence It fixes, the marine eco-environment damage of the polymorphic type aided assessment model system architectural schemes, subregion classification subitem classification that match Evil environment baseline and extent of damage decision criteria and index system establishment scheme, the easily damaged factor extent of damage and damage source item tribute The quantization determination method offered, their main composition and its connecting relation are as follows：

1.1 6 kinds of marine eco-environments damage causality chain models：The persistent pollutant marine eco-environment is damaged Evil mechanism model CJCM1 endangers the approach and consequences analysis model of exposed population group's health because the marine eco-environment is damaged CJCM2, invasive plants, production and living disposal of pollutants, Perioperative cardiac events dredge these marine engineerings and marine ecosystems are caused to lose Weighing apparatus and disaster causality chain MODEL C JCM3, CJCM4, CJCM5 for taking place frequently, pollutant damage source item and classification damage and after The causality chain MODEL C JCM6 of fruit；

The 1.2 four classes causality decision criterias are established on marine eco-environment damage causality chain model basis On, with logic it is progressive judgement successively sequence, respectively be directed to source item occur, source item pollution, classification consequence, spatial and temporal distributions this four The hurtful key link of class provides clear, simple and direct, system, effective causality decision criteria, is carried per one kind criterion Respectively proprietary Judging index, these criterion and index have collectively constituted causality decision model；

The 1.3 polymorphic type aided assessment model system architectural schemes to match with decision criteria are：The model system is by institute State causality decision model, polymorphic type aided assessment model, experimental investigation diagnosing evaluating method and business flow, ocean life State environmental nuisance environment baseline and extent of damage decision criteria and index system framework form, wherein the polymorphic type auxiliary is commented Estimate model by corresponding respectively to the different type aided assessment model framework of the four classes causality decision criteria and index and At, the experimental investigation diagnosing evaluating method and business flow by it is known, will have and due related evaluation method and industry Businessization flow forms, and the marine eco-environment damage to the environment baseline and extent of damage decision criteria and index system are by subregion The qualitative and quantitative judgement index composition of domain, damage source item and classification, the easily damaged factor and index subjet, extent of damage grade；

The marine eco-environment damage to the environment baseline and extent of damage decision criteria and index of the 1.4 subregion classification subitem classifications System construction scheme is：First combine above-mentioned causality chain model, decision model, aided assessment model, embody easily by The classification of the factor and wherein representative index subjet are damaged, is then specifically used for judging these easily damaged cytokine environment baselines With the decision criteria damaged to a certain degree, different regions and damage source item is then divided to determine these decision criterias respectively again And index, quantization judge the easily damaged factor extent of damage and damage source item contribution；

The 1.5 easily damaged factor extent of damages and the quantization determination method of damage source item contribution are by for multinomial damage source item It the degree Quantitative Calculation Method of cumulative damage suffered by the easily damaged factor and is damaged for the easily damaged factor of special damage source item Harmful contribution margin Quantitative Calculation Method composition.

2. damaging causality chain model using 6 kinds of marine eco-environments described in claim 1, it is characterised in that：

2.1 persistent pollutant marine eco-environment damaging mechanisms MODEL C JCM1 describe following causality chain：Persistently After contact scar object enters marine environment, it is not soluble in water at branch in sea and different water depth layer Driftdiffusion, it is volatile At branch with weathering effect evaporation in air, it is soluble or water body is entered at branch by chemical dispersion, work as pollutant When touching seashore, sedimentary or marine organisms, it may occur that Transport And Transformation between multimedium and by bio-absorbable and accumulation, having can Biological concentration and biomagnification can be formed via food chain, and enters human body, when organism is exposed to persistent pollutant, meeting Cause the function and structure of cell and molecule to get muddled, while causing the selfreparing of cell and molecular level, and works as persistence When pollutant concentration reaches certain level, then it can cause to occur excessively repairing or cause to repair to be obstructed, and then generate a series of Toxicological effect, including：Phytoplankton division rate and photosynthesis rate are reduced, causes bio-tissue necrosis and fibrosis, leads It causes offspring's survival rate to decline, hereditary variation occurs, inhibit function of immune system, form hyperplasia, tumour and malignant tumour These lesions can correspondingly damage the structure, process and function of the ecosystem, endanger exposed population group's health；

2.2nd because the marine eco-environment damage endanger exposed population group's health approach and consequences analysis MODEL C JCM2 describe as Under causality chain：The approach that persistent pollutant enters human body includes：Breathing intake, skin contact absorb, and pass through sea Foreign Food chain is introduced into fish, meat, milk dairy products and is eaten again, and is passed in infants by placenta and lactation, Once being enriched in human organ, fat and fiber, it is likely that cause not normal endocrine disturbance, neurobehavioral, reproduction and be immunized System destruction, cancer and tumour, depauperation some symptoms in this way, and then it is higher to form relevant disease incidence in exposed population group Hazard analysis and HACCP；

Causality chain MODEL C JCM3 descriptions that 2.3rd invasive plants cause marine ecosystems unbalance and disaster takes place frequently Following causality chain：External marine organisms will survive empty once successfully invading local marine site with local species contention Between and food, be easy to form large area single dominant group due to lacking natural enemy, other species then lose suitable habitat, Bio-diversity is caused to reduce, local population and food web are destructurized, cause the ecosystem unbalance and disaster takes place frequently；

2.4th production and living disposal of pollutants causes marine ecosystems unbalance and disaster takes place frequently causality chain MODEL C JCM4 Describe following causality chain：Production and living disposal of pollutants has exceeded environmental carrying capacity, leads to region marine environment self-cleaning Change ability is impaired, and marine environmental quality deteriorates and eutrophication, and then adaptability species is caused to rise suddenly and sharply, and it is suitable that non-adaptability species are lost Habitat, biotic population and food web are impaired, and diversity reduces, and causes the ecosystem unbalance and disaster takes place frequently；

2.5th Perioperative cardiac events dredge that these marine engineerings cause marine ecosystems unbalance and disaster takes place frequently causality chain model CJCM5 describes following causality chain：Perioperative cardiac events dredge these marine engineerings and occupy marine environment, and biology is caused to inhabit Ground undermined water front depth condition variation, lead to region drive marine and erosion and deposition environmental change, so cause habitat condition, The change and marine organism growth breeding of nutriment and bait supply are impaired, and bio-diversity reduces, and causes the ecosystem Unbalance and disaster takes place frequently；

2.6th pollutant damage source item and classification damage and consequence causality chain MODEL C JCM6 describe it is following because Fruit relationship chain：Pollutant enters after marine environment since the comprehensive function of itself composition and environmental condition is possible to that difference is presented State, correspondingly again act on the more trophic level marine eco-environments in certain more habitats, cause different types of damage, Yi Jijin One step leads to corresponding consequence；

In the causality chain, water quality is such as reduced, marine organisms is poisoned, poisons birds and ocean mammal, harm The such damage of exposed population group's health, may be caused by the synergy by a variety of source item states, and obstructs water_air exchange, reduces Water body self-purification ability, reduce photosynthesis rate, damage seashore and land and sea junction environmental quality, damage Sediment environment quality, It poisons benthon, intertidal organism, pollution abatement damage, repair the such damage of ecological environment, be then single by certain Caused by source item state；

Similarly, in the causality chain damage of several type be possible to further result in simultaneously such as dissolved oxygen, COD、BOD₅, oil content these water quality index be deteriorated, exceeded area increases, plankton, fish eggs and larvae survival rate and biology Amount reduces, and economic fish and nekton mortality increase or escape, marine ecosystems substance, energy transmission structure and Impaired some consequences in this way of process, ecosystem service function, and birds are injured or dead, the morbidity of exposed population group's correlation epidemic disease Escape that rate increases, ocean mammal goes to bits or occurs, shoreline environment degradation, intertidal organism mortality increase Add, Sediment environment degradation, benthon mortality increase, phytoplankton actual measured amount is increased because the amount of being consumed declines Add, marine environmental quality makes moderate progress, it is then by single type that pollutant consumption Microflora, which obviously increases such consequence, What damage further resulted in.

3. using four class causality decision criterias and index described in claim 1 with logic progressive relationship, feature It is：

Criterion occurs for 3.1 first kind-source item, because：Known and unknown damage event, fruit has occurred：It will necessarily be in event Certain type, degree and the damage of the marine eco-environment of duration are caused after generation, damage type and degree should be according to source item Type, intensity and distribution, disposition situation, environmental condition and specifically judge；

The corresponding Judging index of the criterion is：It is single or multiple damage source items type, events occur really evidence, occur Time and position, wherein damage source item is divided into marine engineering, production and living disposal of pollutants, suddenly accident three types, relates to Extra large Engineering damage source item can be subdivided into Perioperative cardiac events, dredging, marine dykes and dams bridge, Binhai Highway, seabed engineering, and production and living are dirty It is the petroleum-type of dye discharge class damage source item discharge, COD, nitrogen phosphorus compound, pesticide, heavy metal, chemicals, hot and cold, chlorine residue, outer Chemical classes, physics class, biological pollutant can be subdivided by coming biological, pathogen, suspension bed sediment, micro- plastics these pollutants, be dashed forward Hair contamination accident class damage source item can be subdivided into oil spilling, harmful influence leakage, radioactive substance leakage；

3.2 second classes-source item pollutes criterion, because of one：Persistent pollutant discharges, fruit one：The marine eco-environment damages class Type is complicated, and toxic hazard is higher, and the duration is longer, because of two：Perishability pollutant emission, fruit two：Marine ecology ring Border damage type is relatively simple, and the extent of damage is lighter, and the duration is shorter, and more volatile as gasoline fraction or degradation is dirty Dye object is perishability pollutant, and more difficult volatilization or degradation of contaminant as diesel oil distillate are weak persistent pollutant, as Difficult volatilization or degradation of contaminant are middle persistent pollutant as crude oil reduced pressure distillate, are difficult as crude oil decompression residuum Volatilization or degradation of contaminant are strong persistent pollutant；

The corresponding Judging index of the criterion is：Damage source item composition and contamination hazard, specific targets include：Production and living are dirty Whether the pollutant main ingredient of dye discharge class and suddenly accident class damage source item content, has persistence, easily diffusion Property, marine engineering class damages the material composition of source item, whether has contamination hazard；

3.3 third classes-classification consequence criterion：Its because：Damaging source item, there are a variety of different states, fruits in marine environment： Correspondence acts on the more trophic level marine eco-environments in more habitats, accordingly multiple types is caused to damage, further causes multiple types Factual Damage, wherein sea and partly latent floating state pollutant act on seawater body and marine organisms, and volatile evaporation state pollutes Object acts on air environment and exposed population group animal, dissolves and acts on seawater body and ocean life by chemical dispersion state pollutant Object, drifts to seashore and bank state pollutant and act on seashore and intertidal organism, is sunken to sedimentary sedimentation state pollutant and acts on Sedimentary and benthon absorb absorption by organism and state pollutant of looking for food act on food chain biology, and degradation state then acts on In seawater body, seashore, sedimentary, the marine organisms of getting dirty；

The corresponding Judging index of the criterion is：It damages state of the source item in more habitats and more trophic level marine eco-environments, make At classification damage and the classification consequence that further results in, wherein：

The specific targets of more habitat marine eco-environments include：Sea and different water depth layer briny environment, sea air ring Border, shoal environment, Sediment environment and marine organisms spawning ground present in it, feeding ground, wintering ground, migration channel；

The specific targets of more trophic level marine eco-environments include：Microorganism, plankton, fish eggs and larvae, bottom dwell life Object, intertidal organism, economic fish, necton, these marine organisms of ocean mammal and birds and contact people Group；

The state of the damage source item in more habitats and more trophic level marine eco-environments include：Non- solubilised state liquid pollutant It extension and Driftdiffusion and stays under water to transmit with ocean current in certain depth of water layer and spreads on sea, solubilised state and by chemical dispersion state liquid Body pollution object or particulate form pollutant enter seawater body and with ocean current transmit spread, pollutant with ocean current be transferred to sedimentary and Seashore formed sedimentation state and bank state pollutant and be further dispersed within sedimentary and seashore, inhabit sea and seawater The marine organisms of body and sedimentary and seashore are exposed to pollutant and absorption and sorption, intake, degradation of contaminant, into sea Biological concentration and biomagnification are looked for food and formed to the pollutant of foreign biology with food chain by other marine organisms, evaporates state liquid Pollutant enters air environment and exposed population group, birds, mammal, occupies and change sea area condition；

Classification damage concrete type includes caused by described：Water_air exchange is obstructed, briny environment self-purification capacity is reduced, reduces water Matter reduces photosynthesis rate, poisons marine organisms and birds, endangers exposed population group's health, damage seashore and land and sea junction ring Border quality, damage Sediment environment quality, external marine biological invasion, the spatial distribution for changing water front and the depth of water, destroy oviposition Field, feeding ground, wintering ground, barrier migration channel；

The classification consequence concrete type further resulted in includes：PH, dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD₅, nitrogen and phosphorus content, water temperature lifting Amount, oil content, chemicals characteristic contamination content, deleterious pathogens content, micro- plastics, suspended particulate substance some water quality in this way refer to Area increase, plankton and fish eggs and larvae survival rate and the life that mark is deteriorated, region seawater quality is more than relevant national standard Object amount reduces, economic fish and necton mortality increase and occur escape, phytoplankton actual measured amount because the amount of being consumed declines And increased, birds are injured or dead, exposed population group's correlation incidence of epidemic diseases increases, ocean mammal goes to bits And occur escape, the intertidal organism death rate increase and output reduce, the benthon death rate increase and output reduce, enter Invade species contention locality species viability space and food, bio-diversity reduces, marine organisms population and food web are destroyed, Region hydrodynamic force and the change of erosion and deposition environment, marine organisms habitat loss, surrounding medium, flow condition, nutrition suitable for inhabiting Substance and bait supply changes, living marine resources are impaired, marine ecosystems substance, energy transmission structure and process and Ecosystem service function is impaired, marine ecosystems balance and stability are impaired, marine ecology disaster takes place frequently；

3.4 four classes-spatial and temporal distributions criterion：Its because：Damage source item acts on the quantity of marine environment and is distributed the hair because of event It gives birth to type and disposes situation and environmental condition and different, fruit：The corresponding number occupied or enter the more trophic level ecological environments in more habitats Amount, caused by Factual Damage and spatial and temporal distributions need to be aided with investigation and evidence collection and calculate experiment judgement；

The corresponding Judging index of the criterion is：The source strength of damage source item and spatial position and duration mitigate damage source item pair The source strength abatement amount of plan and spatial position and duration, the damage of classification subitem and its extent of damage classification of classification subitem consequence Standard, the spatial distribution and duration, specific targets of classification subitem classification damage include：Total occupancy, discharge capacity, recycling and Seashore amount is drifted to, water body stripping quantity is dispersed into, natural volatile quantity, dissolved into water body amount, by bio-absorbable, adsorbance And intake, degradation amount, seawater quality, deposit and the exceeded area incrementss of littoral zone quality, the exceeded situation of biological quality, ocean Biotic population and food web, region hydrodynamic force and erosion and deposition environment change situation, marine organisms habitat loss situation, suitable for inhabiting Surrounding medium, flow condition, nutriment and bait supply situation of change, marine biodiversity, biomass, fishery resources Amount, marine ecosystem services function reduce situation, marine ecosystems balance and stability condition in damaged, region marine ecology Disaster type, the frequency, area, exposed population group's incidence of epidemic diseases increase situation.

4. the polymorphic type aided assessment model system architectural schemes described in claim 1 to match with decision criteria are used, It is characterized in that, the concrete composition of polymorphic type aided assessment model is as follows：

The model that criteria evaluation judgement occurs for the 4.1 auxiliary first kind-source item mainly has：Damage source item remote sensing surveillance and monitoring model and Database, Factual Damage remote sensing surveillance and monitoring model and database, pollutant fingerprint verification analysis model and database, pollution trace back Source analysis model；

The model of 4.2 auxiliary the second class-source item pollution criteria evaluation judgements mainly has：Pollutant kind and composition retrieval model and Database, pollutant acute toxicity and chronic toxicity evaluation model and database；

The model of 4.3 auxiliary third classes-classification consequence criteria evaluation judgement mainly has：Damaging mechanisms and environment weathering model and Database；

The model of 4.4 auxiliary four classes-spatial and temporal distributions criteria evaluation judgements mainly has：Damage Sources term analysis model and database, Damaging source item marine ecology influences dynamic model, the more trophic level ecological damage assessment models in more habitats, marine pollution exposed population group Health risk assessment model, wherein it includes following dynamic model and number that the damage source item marine ecology, which influences dynamic model, According to library：Region ocean current baseline and influence model and database, Ocean Wind-field diagnostic model and pollutant drift model, region erosion and deposition Baseline model and mutation analysis model, region water quality baseline and influence model and database, plankton influence dynamic model And database.

5. using the marine eco-environment damage to the environment baseline and the extent of damage of subregion described in claim 1 classification subitem classification Decision criteria and index system establishment scheme, it is characterised in that：

5.1 are easy the classification for the marine eco-environment factor being damaged and wherein representative index subjet is：Water quality In pH, oil content, dissolved oxygen, COD, BOD₅, benzene homologues, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, BaP, chemicals, radioactive indicator, suspend Grain object, micro- plastics, pathogen content, petroleum-type, heavy metal, pesticide, benzene homologues, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in substrate and biological quality, BaP, chemicals content, biological species composition and the phytoplankton in quantity, population density and biomass, zooplankter, fish Ovum, larva and juvenile, zoobenthos, intertidal zone benthon, fishery resources corresponding index and endemic species, denizen population and food Object web frame situation, fish spawning ground, feeding ground, wintering ground, the position in migration channel, range, time in the state of habitat, Fingerling, surrounding medium, temperature, salinity, flow condition, nutriment and bait suitable for inhabiting are supplied, in ecosystem state Region drive marine and erosion and deposition environment, substance, energy transmission structure and process, bio-diversity, system balancing and stability, Ecosystem service function, in exposed population group's health status with the relevant face of pollutant, skin, digestion, breathing, interior point It secretes, nerve, genetic system incidence of epidemic diseases；

5.2 easily damaged cytokine environment baseline decision criterias are：It is able to maintain that substance, the energy transmission knot of region marine ecosystems Structure and process are in good, balance, stable state, and index value when can realize its normal ecosystem service function；

The decision criteria that the 5.3 easily damaged factors are damaged to a certain degree is：Within certain time and spatial dimension, because it is all It sends out and there is the injured degree of easily damaged factor institute caused by corresponding causal damage source item, with the easily damaged factor The difference of current value and its environment baseline index value is directly proportional, and difference is bigger, and the extent of damage is heavier, and difference is smaller, and the extent of damage is got over Gently.

6. special using the easily damaged factor extent of damage described in claim 1 and the quantization determination method of damage source item contribution Sign is：

6.1 for multinomial known and unknown damage source item, and quantization judges that they are damaged to being accumulated suffered by the corresponding easily damaged factor Evil degree quantization formula be：

Here, Δ DD_{I, j, k}For the degree of cumulative damage suffered by the i-th easily damaged factor of region jth period kth item；TV_{I, j, k, l}It is The magnitude that the regions the i jth period easily damaged factor of kth item is damaged by l damage source items；DV_{I, j, k}For the i-th region jth period kth The measured value of the easily damaged factor of item；BV_{I, j, k}For the environment baseline index value of the i-th easily damaged factor of region jth period kth item；

6.2 for specific known or unknown damage source item, and quantization judges it to the undermined contribution of corresponding easily damaged factor institute The quantization formula of value is：

Here, TV_{I, j, k, l=m}M to betide the J0 periods damages the easily damaged factor institute of source item pair the i-th region jth period kth item Injured contribution margin；DV_{I, j, k}Meaning is the same as 6.1；DV_{I, j=J0-1, k}For the reality of the i-th easily damaged factor of region J0-1 period kth items Measured value；TV_{I, j, k, l ≠ m}For the i-th region jth easily damaged factor of period kth item source item damage is damaged by the l in addition to m Magnitude.