CN108427856B - Power distribution network 10kV tower fault probability curve fitting method - Google Patents

Power distribution network 10kV tower fault probability curve fitting method Download PDF

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CN108427856B
CN108427856B CN201810297818.2A CN201810297818A CN108427856B CN 108427856 B CN108427856 B CN 108427856B CN 201810297818 A CN201810297818 A CN 201810297818A CN 108427856 B CN108427856 B CN 108427856B
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陈彬
于继来
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Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention provides a power distribution network 10kV tower fault probability curve fitting method. The invention calculates the fitting index F corresponding to different K values in the fault probability curve by means of the real disaster damage data of the historical typhoon and the meteorological data provided by the meteorological departmentapproAnd obtaining an optimal K value, and further fitting an optimal fault probability curve of the 10kV tower of the power distribution network, which is matched with the actual disaster damage result. The method can simply, quickly and effectively fit the distribution line fault probability curve suitable for the strong typhoon environment, and can be applied to safety risk evaluation of the distribution tower in the distribution network under the strong typhoon environment.

Description

Power distribution network 10kV tower fault probability curve fitting method
Technical Field
The invention relates to a power distribution network 10kV tower fault probability curve fitting method.
Background
Typhoon is a natural disaster that can cause huge structural damage to the grid. Under the influence of strong typhoon, the power grid in the gulf of Mexico, the power grid in the east and the power grid in the coastal region of southeast China are the power grids which are most easily damaged by the attack of typhoon all over the world. For a power grid in a certain area under a strong typhoon environment, the extremely high wind speed and large-scale rainfall of typhoon can easily cause the permanent failure of electrical equipment elements in the power grid. For typhoon, the typhoon wind eye is the area with the strongest typhoon wind power, and the typhoon wind speed reaches the maximum value at the edge of the wind eye, so the structural destructive power of the typhoon wind eye is strongest, and the damage to the power grid is most obvious. Among the numerous component devices of the power grid, the distribution lines and the distribution towers are the electrical components which are most easily damaged by typhoons. From the wind damage statistical result of the historical platform of the coastal power grid in southeast of China, most of the power distribution line tower falls in the wind eye area. Under the strong typhoon environment, the fault probability of the distribution line tower is obviously increased along with the increase of the borne wind speed value, so that a fault probability curve of the 10kV tower of the power distribution network suitable for the strong typhoon environment needs to be established.
The problem of distribution line fault probability function fitting under a strong typhoon environment is solved by the following two methods:
(1) historical failure rate statistics are used. The conventional method typically replaces the failure rate of the distribution line with an average of historical long-term failure rate statistics.
(2) And solving a nonlinear equation by establishing an optimization model. The problem of best fitting the fault probability curve is essentially an optimal solution.
The two methods have the following defects in the calculation of the fault rate function of the 10kV tower of the power distribution network in the strong typhoon environment:
(1) for the historical fault rate statistic value, the historical fault rate statistic value of the power distribution line tower is the average value of the line fault rate statistics, and the influence of the short-term fault rate of the power distribution line on the strong typhoon weather cannot be reflected. Although the occurrence probability of strong typhoon is low and the duration is not long, the failure probability of the 10kV tower of the power distribution network is much higher than the general situation under the extreme weather.
(2) Although the method for solving the nonlinear equation by establishing the optimization model can solve the fault probability curve by establishing the optimization model to solve the nonlinear equation, the problem of best fitting of the fault probability curve is a problem of solving an optimal K value, and the adoption of the nonlinear equation set can greatly increase the operation amount and difficulty.
Considering that the power distribution network 10kV pole tower fault probability curve optimization model only contains one variable K to be solved, in order to effectively establish a distribution line fault probability curve suitable for a strong typhoon environment, the true damage data of the historical typhoon and the data provided by a meteorological department are used for providing a near-ground wind field of the typhoon: particularly, the wind eye radius which has the largest wind speed and the most destructive power to the power grid element is calculated and solved. How to effectively solve the value of the variable K to be solved to obtain the fault probability curve of the 10kV tower of the power distribution network in the strong typhoon environment is a difficulty in the prior art.
Disclosure of Invention
Based on the defects, the invention aims to provide the method for fitting the fault probability curve of the 10kV power distribution line tower of the power distribution network, and the method can quickly, effectively and simply fit the fault probability curve of the 10kV power distribution line tower suitable for the strong typhoon environment according to the historical typical typhoon damage data. The method is applied to safety risk assessment of the distribution lines and the distribution towers in the power distribution network in the strong typhoon environment.
The purpose of the invention is realized as follows: a power distribution network 10kV tower fault probability curve fitting method comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps:
the formula of the tower fault rate is as follows:
Figure BDA0001618948140000021
and a tower fault probability formula:
Figure BDA0001618948140000022
wherein, VminDesign wind speed, V, for towerexIs the limit wind speed, V, of the towerex＝2VminK is a key variable to be identified of the tower fault probability curve, and the possible interval [ X, Y ] of the K value]Performing M equal division, wherein X takes a value of 0.05, Y takes a value of 0.25, and M takes 100;
step two: according to a single tower fault rate formula and a fault probability formula, drawing wind speed-fault probability curves corresponding to different K values, namely V-P, according to the formulas (1) and (2)sA curve;
step three: when a certain real typhoon passes through the area of the power distribution network to be researched, a specific disaster zone can be swept out in the disaster area by the wind rings corresponding to different wind speeds of the real typhoon moving forwards along with the center of the typhoon, and for the wind speed ViThe probability of the reverse broken rod in the corresponding disaster area is expressed as follows:
Figure BDA0001618948140000031
in the formula:
Figure BDA0001618948140000032
the total number of all the towers in the area,
Figure BDA0001618948140000033
obtaining different wind speeds V for a plurality of different disaster zones according to a formula (3) for the total number of the reverse-disconnected towers in the areaiCorresponding to
Figure BDA0001618948140000034
Step four: defining the probability fitting indexes of the single tower fault as follows:
Figure BDA0001618948140000035
in the formula:
Figure BDA0001618948140000036
for V at a specific K valueiCorresponding PsThe value is obtained according to the probability of the broken rod in the disaster area corresponding to the corresponding wind speed and the values corresponding to the different K values obtained in the step two
Figure BDA0001618948140000037
Calculating the fitting indexes F corresponding to different K valuesapproFinally get all FapproAnd taking the K corresponding to the minimum value as the optimal K value.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
(1) the method effectively improves the accuracy of the probability curve of the pole breakage failure of the 10kV pole tower;
(2) the identified fault probability curve of the reverse breaking rod can effectively evaluate the disaster loss of the power distribution network in a strong typhoon environment, provide sufficient line early warning information for power distribution network operation first-aid repair personnel, prepare the power distribution network for different dangerous operation working conditions once the line is broken in advance, and reduce social and economic losses;
(3) the optimal K value of the reverse-breaking rod fault probability curve is simply and conveniently calculated, and the method can be effectively expanded to the process of drawing the reverse-breaking rod fault probability curves of other voltage class circuits.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a control flow diagram of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is an approximate relationship diagram of a single tower fault rate and a received wind speed value;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of the impact area of Wimacson on the WC city distribution network in H province;
Detailed Description
The invention will be further illustrated by way of example with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Example 1
A power distribution network 10kV tower fault probability curve fitting method comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps:
the formula of the tower fault rate is as follows:
Figure BDA0001618948140000041
and a tower fault probability formula:
Figure BDA0001618948140000042
wherein, VminDesign wind speed, V, for towerexIs the limit wind speed, V, of the towerex＝2VminK is a key variable to be identified of the tower fault probability curve, and the possible interval [ X, Y ] of the K value]Performing M equal division, wherein X takes a value of 0.05, Y takes a value of 0.25, and M takes 100;
step two: according to a single tower fault rate formula and a fault probability formula, drawing wind speed-fault probability curves corresponding to different K values, namely V-P, according to the formulas (1) and (2)sA curve;
step three: when a certain real typhoon passes through the area of the power distribution network to be researched, a specific disaster zone can be swept out in the disaster area by the wind rings corresponding to different wind speeds of the real typhoon moving forwards along with the center of the typhoon, and for the wind speed ViThe probability of the reverse broken rod in the corresponding disaster area is expressed as follows:
Figure BDA0001618948140000043
in the formula:
Figure BDA0001618948140000044
the total number of all the towers in the area,
Figure BDA0001618948140000045
obtaining different wind speeds V for a plurality of different disaster zones according to a formula (3) for the total number of the reverse-disconnected towers in the areaiCorresponding to
Figure BDA0001618948140000046
Step four: defining the probability fitting indexes of the single tower fault as follows:
Figure BDA0001618948140000051
in the formula:
Figure BDA0001618948140000053
for V at a specific K valueiCorresponding PsThe value is obtained according to the probability of the broken rod in the disaster area corresponding to the corresponding wind speed and the values corresponding to the different K values obtained in the step two
Figure BDA0001618948140000054
Calculating the fitting indexes F corresponding to different K valuesapproFinally get all FapproTaking K corresponding to the minimum value as the optimal K value
Example 2
And verifying the effectiveness of the method by adopting an example that the real typhoon damages a power distribution line tower. The ultra-strong typhoon wilmason (number 1409) in 2014 causes very serious damage to coastal H power saving networks in China. Selecting typhoon Wimacson as a typical disaster damage scene to calculate the power distribution network tower fault probability curve parameter.
And establishing a relation between the fault rate of the single tower and the borne wind speed value, as shown in figure 2. Let V in FIG. 2minIs 32m/s, VexIs 64 m/s. The parameter K has a decisive effect on the probability calculation of the broken rod, and the K value can be evaluated according to the historical real typhoon disasters.
When typhoon Wimacson passes through the area where a power distribution network in WC city of H province is located, a specific disaster zone can be swept out in a certain area when wind rings corresponding to different wind speeds of the typhoon Wimacson move forward along with the center of the typhoon. Therefore, according to typhoon data provided by the weather station and a classical Rankie model, the wind rings corresponding to different wind speeds can be calculated, the disaster zone is determined by combining a geographic GIS system, and fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of the influence area of Wimason on the WC city power distribution network in H province. In fig. 3, the wind eye radius and the typhoon area with the radius of 50KM are marked at the same time.
The damage of the typhoon Wimacson to the WC city power grid of H province in 2014 is a good scene for researching the power distribution network disconnection rod. The power transmission network with the H province of more than 220 in the typhoon does not generate tower collapse, but the WC city power distribution network passed by the typhoon generates large-range collapse poles. Typhoon information provided by the weather department during typhoon passes is shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 typhoon information provided by meteorological department
Figure BDA0001618948140000052
As can be seen from fig. 3 and table 1, the typhoon eye radius in this event is 20KM, and the area swept in the WC market is the area a, in which the line is subjected to a wind speed of 60 m/s. The area swept by the radius of 50KM is an area B, and the average wind speed borne by the line in the area is 42m/s through calculation. In a certain specific area, because the wind load effects of typhoons on all towers in the area are relatively similar, the probability of the broken poles in the area can be approximately considered to be consistent.
The method provided by the patent comprises the following steps:
1) dividing the possible K value interval [0.05,0.2] by 100 equally;
2) according to the fault rate formula and the fault probability formula of a single tower, wind speed-fault probability curves corresponding to different K values, namely V-PsThe curve:
3) when typhoon Wimacson passes through the area where a power distribution network in WC city of H province is located, a specific disaster zone can be swept out in a disaster area when wind rings corresponding to different wind speeds of the typhoon Wimacson move forward along with the center of the typhoon. For wind speed ViThe probability of the reverse breaking rod in the corresponding disaster area zone: the probability of the broken rod of a certain rod in the area A corresponding to 60m/s is 0.75, and the probability of the broken rod of a certain rod in the area B corresponding to 42m/s is 0.3.
4) According to the probability of the broken rod in the disaster area corresponding to different wind speeds obtained in the step three and the P corresponding to different K values obtained in the step twosValue, calculating the fitting index F corresponding to each K valueappro：
TABLE 2 fitting indexes corresponding to each K value calculated by the method proposed in this patent
Figure BDA0001618948140000061
F corresponding to different K values obtained according to the table 2approTaking FapproAnd taking the K corresponding to the minimum value as the optimal K value, wherein the optimal K value is 0.08.
According to the analysis of the steps, the fault probability curve of the 10kV distribution line tower under the strong typhoon environment is quickly, simply and effectively fitted according to historical typhoon damage data.
The fault probability curve of the 10kV power distribution line tower in the strong typhoon environment obtained by the method is closely related to the actual disaster loss of WC cities in H province during the Wilms' paran period of the typhoon, and the defect that the short-term fault rate of the power distribution line cannot be influenced by the strong typhoon weather due to the historical fault rate statistic value of the power distribution line tower is overcome. Meanwhile, compared with a method for fitting the fault probability function through a nonlinear equation system, the method calculates fitting indexes F corresponding to different K valuesapproAnd further, the optimal K value is obtained, and the calculation amount and the calculation intensity can be effectively reduced. Further embodies the effectiveness of the method provided by the patent.

Claims (1)

1. A power distribution network 10kV tower fault probability curve fitting method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps:
the formula of the tower fault rate is as follows:
Figure FDA0003135286120000011
and a tower fault probability formula:
Figure FDA0003135286120000012
wherein, VminDesign wind speed, V, for towerexIs the limit wind speed, V, of the towerex＝2VminAnd K is the tower fault probabilityThe key variables to be identified of the curve are the possible intervals [ X, Y ] of the K value]Performing M equal division, wherein X takes a value of 0.05, Y takes a value of 0.25, M takes 100, and V takes the wind speed;
step two: according to a single tower fault rate formula and a fault probability formula, drawing wind speed-fault probability curves corresponding to different K values, namely V-P, according to the formulas (1) and (2)sA curve;
step three: when a certain real typhoon passes through the area of the power distribution network to be researched, a specific disaster zone can be swept out in the disaster area by the wind rings corresponding to different wind speeds of the real typhoon moving forwards along with the center of the typhoon, and for the wind speed ViThe probability of the reverse broken rod in the corresponding disaster area is expressed as follows:
Figure FDA0003135286120000013
in the formula:
Figure FDA0003135286120000014
the total number of all the towers in the area,
Figure FDA0003135286120000015
obtaining different wind speeds V for a plurality of different disaster zones according to a formula (3) for the total number of the reverse-disconnected towers in the areaiCorresponding to
Figure FDA0003135286120000016
Step four: defining the probability fitting indexes of the single tower fault as follows:
Figure FDA0003135286120000017
in the formula:
Figure FDA0003135286120000018
for V at a specific K valueiCorresponding PsValue according to the corresponding wind speedCorresponding probability of rod breakage in the disaster area and corresponding to different K values obtained in the step two
Figure FDA0003135286120000019
Calculating the fitting indexes F corresponding to different K valuesapproFinally get all FapproThe K corresponding to the minimum value in (3) is taken as the optimal K value.
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